The last game of the 2010-2011 bowl season has the potential to be one of the best national championship games ever. Unfortunately, this has been said before and the last “Greatest Game of All Time” turned into a laugher when Oklahoma got pounded by USC 55-19.
There have been several years over the history of the BCS where the participants in the title game were up for debate and few times have the two teams been the most obvious choices to square off for the hardware. With all due respect to TCU, this is one of those years. I do believe that TCU deserves a shot at the national title but given how they have played this year, I don’t think that TCU should be ranked ahead of either Auburn or Oregon. This game promises to provide plenty of fireworks as neither defense ended up as one of the top in the country while both offenses put up yards and points like few other teams in the country.
The backdrop to this match-up is the entire Cam Newton “Pay-For-Play” fiasco that embroiled the Tigers football program this year. I would love to believe the results of the investigation and say that Cam Newton had no knowledge of what his father was doing but it just seems a little fishy to me that he didn’t know anything at all. Having said that, no evidence of Newton’s wrongdoing has been presented so until proven guilty, he is innocent in my mind and should be eligible to play in this game. I am just worried that five years from now, it will be declared that he had knowledge of the plan all along and his Heisman Trophy will be vacated and the Tigers magical national championship season will be vacated from the record books. Maybe that would be enough for the NCAA to reexamine their policies when it comes to amateur athletes.
Yeah, right…
BY THE NUMBERS
Offensively, the numbers are very similar.
- Oregon ranked 4th in rushing yards per game, Auburn was 6th.
- Oregon was 48th in passing yards, Auburn was 69th.
- Oregon was 2nd in total yards per game, Auburn was 7th.
- Oregon led the nation in points per game, Auburn was 6th.
Defensively, there are some similarities and some differences. Both of these teams were outstanding against the rush, but the numbers are good for different reasons. Auburn ranked 11th against the rush and that ranking is a little more legitimate than Oregon’s ranking of 16th because of the way these two teams took their leads. Likewise, Oregon’s ranking against the pass (56th) is much more inflated than Auburn’s ranking (105th) for the same reason. Auburn was a notoriously slow starting team this year, falling behind numerous times and using a flurry of Cam Newton’s Heismanesque talents to come back in the second half. This means that throughout the game, Auburn’s opponents were most likely trying to utilize a balanced offensive attack and they found that they could chew up yardage through the air but not on the ground.
On the other side, Oregon started somewhat slowly but in the middle of the season when the Blur Offense was at its high octane best, they would start to outpace their opponents late in the second quarter and early in the third. This means that for anywhere from one entire quarter to three entire quarters, Ducks’ opponents had few opportunities for a balanced offense. When you’re trying to make a comeback, you have to air the ball out to get points quickly. Therefore, the passing numbers will be abnormally high and the rushing numbers abnormally low.
What that all means is that Auburn’s run defense is for real and their pass defense is dreadful. On the other side, it just means that Oregon’s defense probably should have been ranked somewhere between 20-40 against both the rush and the pass instead of 16th and 56th. The other important thing to take away from that little bit of conjecture is that there is little doubt around college football circles that Oregon’s defense is in a class above Auburn’s defense and this could be a game where the first team to punt might just lose.
THE TIGERS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have Cam Newton. He was one 11 yard completion away from averaging over 200 yards passing and over 100 yards rushing per game. He led the nation in passing efficiency (sidenote: at the time that I wrote about the Heisman Trophy race a few weeks ago, he was second in efficiency to Kellen Moore but passed him with his performance in the SEC title game) with outstanding metrics: 67% completion percentage, 10.52 yards per attempt, and a 28-6 touchdown to interception ratio. On top of all that, he led the SEC in rushing yards.
Let me say that again: HE LED THE SEC IN RUSHING YARDS. The SEC has a history of producing some great running backs and yet this year, nobody in the conference rushed for more yards than a quarterback. The biggest difference that I see between Newton and Michael Vick (the last quarterback to cause this kind of hubbub over his running skills) is defenses were afraid of Vick throwing the ball but considering that he completed only 56.3% of his college passes, they were more afraid of his running ability. Vick was able to run for so many yards with his sheer athleticism and speed.
By contrast, Cam Newton has shown that while he may not be the most polished passer in the FBS ranks right now, he’s still very good and if you put that extra man or two in the box to stop him, he can exploit man coverage in the secondary. Then, if you drop those extra rushers back into coverage and you give him space and time, he will hurt you on the ground. Then you have a big strong, six foot six, two hundred fifty pound guy with long arms running rampant through your secondary. Just try and tackle him.
KEY STAT: Auburn ranked 105th in passing yards allowed, 75th in passer efficiency allowed, and 54th in points per game allowed.
THE DUCKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Auburn won’t be able to keep up with the Blur. Chip Kelly has toned back his game planning recently, wanting to get victories to ensure his team’s spot in the top two of the final BCS standings but I would expect that to change completely against Auburn. I would expect the Blur to be at its holy-crap-they-already-snapped-the-ball-again finest.
Auburn is extremely good against the rush but will they be able to maintain that intensity and focus for 60 minutes against the Blur, especially when you consider that they probably won’t get too much help from their secondary. Oregon’s offense was at its scary best when Darron Thomas was hitting receivers downfield and the reason for this is simple. As a defensive lineman, if you stop a rushing attempt for a gain of one yard and you know that from the time the ball is spotted you have seven seconds to get set, you’ll only have to move a few yards to get in position. But what happens when Thomas hits a receiver over the middle for a 20 yard gain? You have to sprint 20 yards to get into position and then line up against an offensive line that has been running those types of sprints all year long. Now you just had to sprint 20 yards and you’re going against a 300 pound guard who isn’t as winded as you and he’s about to square you up and drive you off the line.
It doesn’t sound like it would be a big advantage when you consider that these are the best college football teams in the country but over the course of a 60 minute game, it will wear down Auburn’s defensive line. It wouldn’t surprise me at all for the Tigers to take a lead into halftime and then lose it all in the third quarter, which would set up a fantastic race to the finish in the fourth quarter.
Despite missing their first game due to a team imposed suspension, sophomore LaMichael James still led the nation in rushing yards with 1,682. Even though his stature is small (5’9’’, 185 pounds), he has been very durable this year, surpassing 25 carries on 8 different occasions. We also cannot forget that Thomas is also a competent ball carrier, rushing for nearly 500 yards this year while averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
KEY STAT: Oregon’s defense was very opportunistic, ranking seventh this season in turnover margin at +1.08.
THE VERDICT
Both of these teams have gotten a reputation as being slow starters but it’s for different reasons. In the games that I have watched of theirs’ this year, Auburn struggled offensively in the first half of games. Oregon, however, seemed to be feeling their opponents out and wearing them down, knowing that with the conditioning of their entire team, nobody can stay with them for 60 minutes.
In the second half, the Tigers’ defense would then step up and start coming through with key stops while Cam Newton would do his Heisman thing. Oregon would play roughly the same way that they did in the first half but the difference is that the opposing defense is now exhausted so instead of rushes up the middle for 3 or 4 yards, those carries start going for 10 or 12 yards… or sometimes 75.
The way I see this game panning out is Auburn will take the lead into halftime and everyone will start saying that this is going to be unusual because Newton has brought this team back from 4 second half deficits, in three of which they were still trailing in the fourth quarter. Therefore, a lot of people will jump on the Auburn bandwagon.
In the third quarter, Oregon will simply blow the doors off the place and they will remind people why the Blur Offense is as devastating as it is. Cam Newton will try for one more comeback to cap off his amazing season in the fourth quarter but it will be too little, too late.
Oregon 49, Auburn 45
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Friday, December 17, 2010
BCS Preview 2011 - Sugar Bowl
Yet another intriguing match-up from our friends at the BCS headquarters… with the possible exception of the Fiesta Bowl, this BCS season seems to be full of what could turn out to be epic games. Unfortunately, not very many BCS match-ups have lived up to the hype going into the games. Last year was the first season since the implementation of the BCS that all of the highest ranked teams played in BCS bowls (top ten starting in January 2007 and top eight before that) and all we got out of those five top 10 match-ups was two yawners, a mostly one-sided affair, an enjoyable defensive struggle that was turned on a fake punt, and a thoroughly anti-climactic championship game that only turned out to be so because Colt McCoy injured his shoulder early in the game.
Another thing that happened last year is Jim Tressel opened up his playbook and confounded a lot of people, including myself. The question now is can he do it again? Pundits have repeated time and time again that Ohio State hasn’t beaten an SEC team in a bowl game since… can you remember the last time they beat an SEC team? Was Woody Hayes still coaching the Buckeyes back then?
On the flipside of this match-up are the Razorbacks of Arkansas that haven’t been a factor in college football in years. They are led by their own NFL prospect of a quarterback in Ryan Mallett who ended up ranked 3rd nationally in passing efficiency.
BY THE NUMBERS
Ryan Mallett helps make up for a lot of deficiencies that the Razorbacks have. Their running game is average (65th nationally), their rush defense is a little below average (69th), their scoring defense is slightly better than average (43rd), and their special teams take turns between great and terrible. They ranked 4th nationally in punt return average, just 56th in net punting, and 102nd in kick return average.
It should be noted that the Razorbacks did play a very difficult schedule in the SEC but many of the rankings listed above usually don’t add up to a top ten BCS caliber team unless they do something very very well and what the Razorbacks can do is throw the ball.
The defense that Mallett is going to be throwing against may be one of the stingiest units in the country… again. I know, Ohio State has a great defense… what else is new? The Buckeyes ranked 4th against the rush, 4th against the pass, 2nd overall in yardage allowed per game, and 3rd in points allowed per game. They allowed opposing quarterbacks a rating of just 96.88 (4th best in the country), more than 70 points lower Mallett’s rating.
Given that Arkansas’ offense and Ohio State’s defense are clearly their strengths, this game will most likely hinge on the other match-up, Arkansas’ defense against Ohio State’s offense, which brings us back to Jim Tressel’s play calling again.
If Tressel calls the game like he did last year in the Rose Bowl against Oregon, the Razorbacks will most likely not be too competitive in this game.
THE RAZORBACKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will clam up and go back to his old conservative play-calling days. To be brutally honest, for as good as Mallett has been this year, that is the only way that I can see Arkansas having a realistic shot at winning this game. This is not the Florida team or the LSU team that blew the Buckeyes out of the national title games in the past few years.
Having said that, this team did play tough against Alabama before losing 24-20 and took a lead against Auburn in the fourth quarter before giving up four straight touchdowns and losing by 22. They did put forth 43 points against the #1 team in the country but it needs to be pointed out that that same #1 team is ranked 105th in pass defense. Ohio State is ranked 4th.
KEY STAT: Ryan Mallett averaged 9.87 yards per attempt, 3rd best in the country behind Kellen Moore (10.16) and Cam Newton (10.52).
THE BUCKEYES WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will continue to trust Terrelle Pryor. The junior completed 66% of his passes for a QB rating of 158.0 and rushed for 639 yards along the way. If he is making plays and doing his best Cam Newton imitation, there is little that any team in the country can do to keep up with the Buckeyes. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback, the only thing that can hold back the Buckeyes is Jim Tressel. He is the perfect ambassador for a football program and he is an outstanding defensive coach, but sometimes he holds his team back offensively.
While the Buckeyes were fantastic on defense, they were underrated on offense. They ranked 18th in total offense and 11th in scoring offense, outgaining their opponents by an astounding 198 yards per game and outscoring their opponents by 26 points per game.
On the offchance that their offense stalls and the game turns into a field position battle, the game will favor the Buckeyes even more, since it sometimes seems like Jim Tressel loves nothing more than to get a lead and play defensive, field position football (Ohio State ranked in the top quarter in both punt and kickoff returns this year).
KEY STAT: The Buckeyes ranked 3rd in kickoff return average, 3rd in turnover margin, and 14th in rushing offense, all keys to a ball control, field position victory.
THE VERDICT
Arkansas will be playing much closer to home than Ohio State when they meet in the Superdome in New Orleans but Ohio State has never had trouble filling seats, no matter where in the country they are playing.
Arkansas’ defense hasn’t played particularly well against the better offenses that they have faced this year, culminating with their disastrous fourth quarter against Auburn. Terrelle Pryor isn’t Cam Newton, but he’s also a lot better than most of the other quarterbacks that the Razorbacks have faced this year.
Ohio State has shown some vulnerability to the run this year but not too much to the pass and that is the greatest challenge that they will face from Arkansas.
Stingy turnover forcing defense + ball control offense = Buckeye victory
Ohio State 24, Arkansas 17
Another thing that happened last year is Jim Tressel opened up his playbook and confounded a lot of people, including myself. The question now is can he do it again? Pundits have repeated time and time again that Ohio State hasn’t beaten an SEC team in a bowl game since… can you remember the last time they beat an SEC team? Was Woody Hayes still coaching the Buckeyes back then?
On the flipside of this match-up are the Razorbacks of Arkansas that haven’t been a factor in college football in years. They are led by their own NFL prospect of a quarterback in Ryan Mallett who ended up ranked 3rd nationally in passing efficiency.
BY THE NUMBERS
Ryan Mallett helps make up for a lot of deficiencies that the Razorbacks have. Their running game is average (65th nationally), their rush defense is a little below average (69th), their scoring defense is slightly better than average (43rd), and their special teams take turns between great and terrible. They ranked 4th nationally in punt return average, just 56th in net punting, and 102nd in kick return average.
It should be noted that the Razorbacks did play a very difficult schedule in the SEC but many of the rankings listed above usually don’t add up to a top ten BCS caliber team unless they do something very very well and what the Razorbacks can do is throw the ball.
The defense that Mallett is going to be throwing against may be one of the stingiest units in the country… again. I know, Ohio State has a great defense… what else is new? The Buckeyes ranked 4th against the rush, 4th against the pass, 2nd overall in yardage allowed per game, and 3rd in points allowed per game. They allowed opposing quarterbacks a rating of just 96.88 (4th best in the country), more than 70 points lower Mallett’s rating.
Given that Arkansas’ offense and Ohio State’s defense are clearly their strengths, this game will most likely hinge on the other match-up, Arkansas’ defense against Ohio State’s offense, which brings us back to Jim Tressel’s play calling again.
If Tressel calls the game like he did last year in the Rose Bowl against Oregon, the Razorbacks will most likely not be too competitive in this game.
THE RAZORBACKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will clam up and go back to his old conservative play-calling days. To be brutally honest, for as good as Mallett has been this year, that is the only way that I can see Arkansas having a realistic shot at winning this game. This is not the Florida team or the LSU team that blew the Buckeyes out of the national title games in the past few years.
Having said that, this team did play tough against Alabama before losing 24-20 and took a lead against Auburn in the fourth quarter before giving up four straight touchdowns and losing by 22. They did put forth 43 points against the #1 team in the country but it needs to be pointed out that that same #1 team is ranked 105th in pass defense. Ohio State is ranked 4th.
KEY STAT: Ryan Mallett averaged 9.87 yards per attempt, 3rd best in the country behind Kellen Moore (10.16) and Cam Newton (10.52).
THE BUCKEYES WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will continue to trust Terrelle Pryor. The junior completed 66% of his passes for a QB rating of 158.0 and rushed for 639 yards along the way. If he is making plays and doing his best Cam Newton imitation, there is little that any team in the country can do to keep up with the Buckeyes. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback, the only thing that can hold back the Buckeyes is Jim Tressel. He is the perfect ambassador for a football program and he is an outstanding defensive coach, but sometimes he holds his team back offensively.
While the Buckeyes were fantastic on defense, they were underrated on offense. They ranked 18th in total offense and 11th in scoring offense, outgaining their opponents by an astounding 198 yards per game and outscoring their opponents by 26 points per game.
On the offchance that their offense stalls and the game turns into a field position battle, the game will favor the Buckeyes even more, since it sometimes seems like Jim Tressel loves nothing more than to get a lead and play defensive, field position football (Ohio State ranked in the top quarter in both punt and kickoff returns this year).
KEY STAT: The Buckeyes ranked 3rd in kickoff return average, 3rd in turnover margin, and 14th in rushing offense, all keys to a ball control, field position victory.
THE VERDICT
Arkansas will be playing much closer to home than Ohio State when they meet in the Superdome in New Orleans but Ohio State has never had trouble filling seats, no matter where in the country they are playing.
Arkansas’ defense hasn’t played particularly well against the better offenses that they have faced this year, culminating with their disastrous fourth quarter against Auburn. Terrelle Pryor isn’t Cam Newton, but he’s also a lot better than most of the other quarterbacks that the Razorbacks have faced this year.
Ohio State has shown some vulnerability to the run this year but not too much to the pass and that is the greatest challenge that they will face from Arkansas.
Stingy turnover forcing defense + ball control offense = Buckeye victory
Ohio State 24, Arkansas 17
BCS Preview 2011 - Orange Bowl
One of the more intriguing match-ups that the BCS has provided us with this year is #13 Virginia Tech against #4 Stanford. The Hokies are one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 11 straight games since starting the season with a tough loss to Boise State and a terrible loss to James Madison. On the other hand, the Cardinal are the best “boring” team in college football. What I mean by that is they run a pro style offense that doesn’t feature a quarterback that ran for 1,500 yards or an offense that takes only seven seconds between snaps of the ball. They have a former professional quarterback for a head coach and a future professional quarterback actually playing quarterback. Their only loss this year is to #1 Oregon and if it wasn’t for the Ducks, it’s entirely possible that Stanford would be ramping up to play Auburn for the National Championship.
BY THE NUMBERS
While Virginia Tech had solid rankings on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, Stanford was slightly better in most every area. The Cardinal ranked in the top 32 (or roughly the top quarter of the country) in yards per game (14th), rushing yards per game (17th), passing yards per game (30th), passing efficiency (7th), yards allowed (24th), rushing yards allowed (24th), passing yards allowed (32nd), pass efficiency defense (21st), points scored, and points allowed (11th).
While Stanford outgained their opponents this year by 141 yards per game (467-326), Virginia Tech outgained their opponents by only 63 yards per game (411-348). The point is simply that while the Hokies had a good statistical year, the Cardinal did just about everything just a little bit better.
THE HOKIES WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Tyrod Taylor is one heck of a playmaker and one of the only other times the Cardinal faced a player of his caliber, they were run out of Eugene, Oregon by the Ducks and quarterback Darron Thomas. Taylor had an impressive season this year, completing 60% of his passes at 8.9 yards per attempt with a touchdown to interception ratio of 23-4. On top of that, he rushed for 637 yards and 5 touchdowns.
The Hokies have a host of good players that will be tough for Stanford to deal with if Taylor is distributing the ball well. Other than Taylor, two other players rushed for at least 600 yards with a per carry average of better than 5.5 yards.
This has all the makings of a close game where the team that makes fewer mistakes will win. In games like that, I always have a hard time betting against a Frank Beamer led defense and special teams.
KEY STAT: The Hokies led the nation in turnover margin at +1.38 per game.
THE CARDINAL WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Andrew Luck. The junior completed over 70% of his passes with a yards per attempt rate nearly as good as Taylor’s with his own impressive TD-INT ratio (28-7). While he is a pocket passer primarily, he can tuck the ball and gain chunks of yardage on the ground, evidenced by his 438 yards rushing and his 8.6 yard per carry average. Behind him, sophomore Stephan Taylor rushed for over 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns. This team is very efficient and doesn’t make all that many mistakes due to savvy players and good coaching.
KEY STAT: While the Cardinal didn’t have the best pass rushing (27 sacks) or ball hawking secondary (17 INT) in the country, they were extremely adept and avoiding those pitfalls; as a team, they threw only 7 interceptions and allowed just 5 sacks all year.
THE VERDICT
Stanford isn’t flashy. They don’t have a Heisman winning quarterback and they don’t rush for 300 yards a game while passing for another 200 per game. They aren’t the type of team that scares you with raw athleticism or sheer talent; they are the type that scares you with their deadly efficiency.
After watching Virginia Tech lose to Boise State, I don’t have a great deal of faith in them against a top tier team. After the Broncos took a 17-0 lead, the Hokies shut down Kellen Moore for a good portion of the game but once the game was on the line, Moore took his offense down the field and scored the winning touchdown rather easily against Beamer’s defense. While Kellen Moore and the Broncos were worthy of their high ranking and were a good team, they are not as good as the Cardinal and Moore isn’t as good as Andrew Luck.
Virginia Tech’s winning streak will end in the Orange Bowl.
Stanford 27, Virginia Tech 17
BY THE NUMBERS
While Virginia Tech had solid rankings on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, Stanford was slightly better in most every area. The Cardinal ranked in the top 32 (or roughly the top quarter of the country) in yards per game (14th), rushing yards per game (17th), passing yards per game (30th), passing efficiency (7th), yards allowed (24th), rushing yards allowed (24th), passing yards allowed (32nd), pass efficiency defense (21st), points scored, and points allowed (11th).
While Stanford outgained their opponents this year by 141 yards per game (467-326), Virginia Tech outgained their opponents by only 63 yards per game (411-348). The point is simply that while the Hokies had a good statistical year, the Cardinal did just about everything just a little bit better.
THE HOKIES WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Tyrod Taylor is one heck of a playmaker and one of the only other times the Cardinal faced a player of his caliber, they were run out of Eugene, Oregon by the Ducks and quarterback Darron Thomas. Taylor had an impressive season this year, completing 60% of his passes at 8.9 yards per attempt with a touchdown to interception ratio of 23-4. On top of that, he rushed for 637 yards and 5 touchdowns.
The Hokies have a host of good players that will be tough for Stanford to deal with if Taylor is distributing the ball well. Other than Taylor, two other players rushed for at least 600 yards with a per carry average of better than 5.5 yards.
This has all the makings of a close game where the team that makes fewer mistakes will win. In games like that, I always have a hard time betting against a Frank Beamer led defense and special teams.
KEY STAT: The Hokies led the nation in turnover margin at +1.38 per game.
THE CARDINAL WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Andrew Luck. The junior completed over 70% of his passes with a yards per attempt rate nearly as good as Taylor’s with his own impressive TD-INT ratio (28-7). While he is a pocket passer primarily, he can tuck the ball and gain chunks of yardage on the ground, evidenced by his 438 yards rushing and his 8.6 yard per carry average. Behind him, sophomore Stephan Taylor rushed for over 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns. This team is very efficient and doesn’t make all that many mistakes due to savvy players and good coaching.
KEY STAT: While the Cardinal didn’t have the best pass rushing (27 sacks) or ball hawking secondary (17 INT) in the country, they were extremely adept and avoiding those pitfalls; as a team, they threw only 7 interceptions and allowed just 5 sacks all year.
THE VERDICT
Stanford isn’t flashy. They don’t have a Heisman winning quarterback and they don’t rush for 300 yards a game while passing for another 200 per game. They aren’t the type of team that scares you with raw athleticism or sheer talent; they are the type that scares you with their deadly efficiency.
After watching Virginia Tech lose to Boise State, I don’t have a great deal of faith in them against a top tier team. After the Broncos took a 17-0 lead, the Hokies shut down Kellen Moore for a good portion of the game but once the game was on the line, Moore took his offense down the field and scored the winning touchdown rather easily against Beamer’s defense. While Kellen Moore and the Broncos were worthy of their high ranking and were a good team, they are not as good as the Cardinal and Moore isn’t as good as Andrew Luck.
Virginia Tech’s winning streak will end in the Orange Bowl.
Stanford 27, Virginia Tech 17
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Quarterback Rating Revisited
Not too long ago, several writers on espn.com starting looking at the difference between white and black quarterbacks and while they never specifically called anyone out for being racist, they came extremely close. In one of these pieces, it was brought up that one of the most common stats used to evaluate a quarterback (QB Rating, a formula that spits out a number between 0 and 158.3 to measure a quarterback’s performance) does not take into account the running ability of a quarterback.
At first, I thought this task was a little on the tall side but eventually I decided to tackle it and while my formula is simplistic, it takes into account total times touching the ball, yardage accumulated, touchdowns scored, and times turning the ball over. Different people will disagree on what they value most from a quarterback but I think that in general we can agree that yards are good (and more yards are better than fewer yards), touchdowns are good, and turnovers are bad. That is the template that I used.
THE SAMPLE
In order to qualify for the rate titles, the Stat-Geeks-That-Be have determined that quarterbacks need to have at least 14 pass attempts per team game or 224 over the course of a full season. For this analysis, only those individual seasons were looked at from 1990-2010. Granted, the 2010 season isn’t over yet but already 30 quarterbacks have thrown the ball more than 224 times and it is this season that has brought up the debate over whether or not the mystical QB Rating is the best way to measure a quarterback. Overall there were 659 such seasons from 1990-2010 with Brett Favre providing 19 of them all by himself.
While this leaves out a good number of quarterbacks that have thrown many passes over the last 21 years, this method compares apples to apples in my opinion. For the most part, backup quarterbacks do not get to throw 224 passes in a season unless the starter suffers a pretty bad injury. Therefore, this sample (for the most part) includes starting quarterbacks only; theoretically the best of the best.
THE METHOD
For this analysis, I wanted to look at as much that shows up in the box score for a quarterback as I could. The main categories that I totaled up were touches, yards, touchdowns, and turnovers.
- Touches included pass attempts, sacks, and rush attempts.
- Yards includes passing yards, rushing yards, and yardage lost on sacks
- Touchdowns included passing and rushing touchdowns
- Turnovers included interceptions and fumbles
I then took these raw numbers and calculated the following rate stats; yards per touch, yards per game, touchdown percentage, and turnover percentage. Once I had those, I compared them to the average of all the quarterbacks that qualified for that season. In other words, Tom Brady’s 2007 season wasn’t compared against Peyton Manning’s 2004 season. For instance, let’s say the average for yards per touch (YPT from now on) was 5.92 (which it was) and a certain player were to have a YPT value of 6.911 (like Tom Brady does this year).
6.911/5.92 = 1.1689
1.1689*100 = 116.89
Therefore, like OPS+ and ERA+ in baseball, I get a number where above 100 is above average and below 100 is below average. Much like quarterback rating, I capped the possible number at 200 (twice as good as league average) and then divided each of the metrics by 4. I know 4 seems like a random number but if you were twice as good as league average in all four metrics, then your MR (Murphy Rating, as I’ve decided to call it) would be an even 200 and I like nice round even numbers. Accordingly, league average is 100, just as it was before.
THE RESULTS
This year, Michael Vick has turned the corner as a quarterback. His QB Rating is 104.3, easily a career high, and his 483 rushing yards already rank 15th for quarterbacks since 1990 and with three games to go if he were to maintain his average, he would go up to 7th. Surely with this dual threat combination, he is having just as good a season as his counterparts that stand like a statue in the pocket and distribute the magic bean.
Nope, this year, Michael Vick ranks just 4th in MR, behind Aaron Rodgers (who is mobile), and two guys that will never be mistaken for track champions, Matt Cassell and Tom Brady. So why is Vick only fourth in by far his best season since being drafted with the number one overall selection? Why do running quarterbacks still not measure up? Well, there are two explanations and one of them is apparently that I am racist.
If any of you reading this know me, you’ll know that’s ridiculous. There is another explanation and it might be a possibly reason why black quarterbacks get paid a little less or why they are continually underrated.
Michael Vick has a better YPT, TD% (touchdown percentage), and yards per game (YPG from now on) than both Aaron Rodgers and Matt Cassell and a better YPT and YPG mark than Tom Brady. Why is he ranked behind them? It’s that fourth metric, the turnover percentage (TO% from now on). Vick has thrown 4 interceptions, the same number as Cassell and Brady and 6 fewer than Rodgers. However, here are their pass attempts this year:
Brady – 425
Rodgers – 410
Cassell – 354
Vick – 294
Now here’s the other part that perhaps wasn’t fully thought through by those who said that the Quarterback Rating needed to be rethought. When Michael Vick tucks the ball and heads upfield, he doesn’t always tuck the ball. I’ve seen many replays where he’s holding the ball at arm’s length as if he’s about to throw the ball well beyond the line of scrimmage. So what, am I saying he can’t hold onto the ball? Not at all, on the contrary, I’m saying it’s much easier for a defender to knock the ball loose. Despite carrying the ball 82 times for 483 yards and 7 touchdowns this year, Vick has fumbled the ball 9 times. When you take that into account, his running ability seems to be mitigated by his turnovers. Why is Aaron Rodgers ranked ahead of Vick? Mostly because Vick has turned the ball over 13 times in a total of 401 touches (rushes, sacks, and pass attempts). Aaron Rodgers has 492 such touches and only 12 turnovers. Matt Cassell is surprisingly high because he is at 395 and 6, respectively, and Brady is number one this year because he has only turned the ball over 6 times and has a total of 474 touches.
In 2006 Michael Vick set the record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 1,039 and in this sample, that season ranks only 256th (or in the 61st percentile) because he turned the ball over 22 times while providing 22 touchdowns. On top of that, his total yards per touch were very low that year, mostly because his yards per pass attempt was significantly lower (6.4) than his yards per rush attempt (8.4).
THE BEST
If you look at the quarterbacks that did well in this analysis, they do have one thing in common; they can throw the football. If you look at the top of the MR rankings, there are several quarterbacks who could run the ball but they could still throw it. In Steve Young’s best 5 seasons, he ranked 3rd, 7th, 10th, 13th, and 16th in MR and combined to rush for 2,106 yards. His lowest passer rating in those five years was 101.1.
Of the top ten seasons, the average number of passing yards was 3,781 and passing touchdowns was 32.9. By contrast, those ten averaged just 187 rushing yards, a decent total from a quarterback but hardly at the level of a “running” quarterback. Most notable when you’re looking at that top ten list is the fact that those quarterbacks combined for 356 touchdowns and just 130 turnovers.
These are the top ten seasons of the past 20 years:
Name (year)
MR (out of 200)
Touches-Yards-TD-Turnovers
Tom Brady (2007)
163.9
636-4,776-52-14
Peyton Manning (2006)
155.8
594-4,347-35-11
Steve Young (1994)
154.9
550-4,099-42-14
Peyton Manning (2004)
153.8
535-4,494-49-15
Randall Cunningham (1998)
152.8
477-3,704-35-12
Donovan McNabb (2006)
148.9
369-2,719-21-9
Steve Young (1991)
147.3
358-2,853-21-11
Kurt Warner (1999)
144.6
551-4,244-42-22
Tom Brady (2010)
143.5
474-3,276-30-6
Steve Young (1992)
141.1
507-3,850-29-16
SUMMATION
Is it coincidence that black quarterbacks have only two of those ten seasons? Yes, it is. Every action in football has a tradeoff. When you throw a pass, it’s possible that it can get intercepted. When you tuck the ball and run, it’s possible that the ball can get stripped from your hands. Considering that many quarterbacks are taught for their entire careers to avoid interceptions and perhaps aren’t taught at all to properly cradle the ball to protect it from defenders, it shouldn’t be that surprising that quarterbacks have high fumble rates and running quarterbacks have even higher fumble rates.
Of the top 12 rushing seasons by QB’s since 1990, seven of them have fumbled more than 10 times. While Daunte Culpepper rushed for 609 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2002, he also fumbled the ball 23 times.
So the real question is, who would you rather have on your team, a guy who may not make spectacular plays with his feet but turns the ball over about once a game or the guy who will make the highlight reel every Sunday night but will give the ball to the defense 25-30 times in a season?
Am I racist when I say that Michael Vick and Donovan McNabb aren’t as good as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning? Some of you may think so but I don’t think I am. Many people say that success as a quarterback is measured by how many rings you have and while Manning has one and Brady three, McNabb and Vick have combined for zero. Peyton Manning will probably break nearly ever career passing record in the books and will hold them for a very long time. Brady has an excellent shot at a fourth ring this year despite a porous defense. Donovan McNabb is finally finding out what it’s like to play on a team that isn’t studded with Pro Bowlers and Michael Vick has a good shot at a deep run in the playoffs because he is now on a balanced team.
I’m all for using more tools to evaluate quarterbacks, but to put guys like McNabb and Vick in the conversation with Manning and Brady (when considering their careers) is nothing short of ludicrous and that has nothing to do with the color of their skin.
At first, I thought this task was a little on the tall side but eventually I decided to tackle it and while my formula is simplistic, it takes into account total times touching the ball, yardage accumulated, touchdowns scored, and times turning the ball over. Different people will disagree on what they value most from a quarterback but I think that in general we can agree that yards are good (and more yards are better than fewer yards), touchdowns are good, and turnovers are bad. That is the template that I used.
THE SAMPLE
In order to qualify for the rate titles, the Stat-Geeks-That-Be have determined that quarterbacks need to have at least 14 pass attempts per team game or 224 over the course of a full season. For this analysis, only those individual seasons were looked at from 1990-2010. Granted, the 2010 season isn’t over yet but already 30 quarterbacks have thrown the ball more than 224 times and it is this season that has brought up the debate over whether or not the mystical QB Rating is the best way to measure a quarterback. Overall there were 659 such seasons from 1990-2010 with Brett Favre providing 19 of them all by himself.
While this leaves out a good number of quarterbacks that have thrown many passes over the last 21 years, this method compares apples to apples in my opinion. For the most part, backup quarterbacks do not get to throw 224 passes in a season unless the starter suffers a pretty bad injury. Therefore, this sample (for the most part) includes starting quarterbacks only; theoretically the best of the best.
THE METHOD
For this analysis, I wanted to look at as much that shows up in the box score for a quarterback as I could. The main categories that I totaled up were touches, yards, touchdowns, and turnovers.
- Touches included pass attempts, sacks, and rush attempts.
- Yards includes passing yards, rushing yards, and yardage lost on sacks
- Touchdowns included passing and rushing touchdowns
- Turnovers included interceptions and fumbles
I then took these raw numbers and calculated the following rate stats; yards per touch, yards per game, touchdown percentage, and turnover percentage. Once I had those, I compared them to the average of all the quarterbacks that qualified for that season. In other words, Tom Brady’s 2007 season wasn’t compared against Peyton Manning’s 2004 season. For instance, let’s say the average for yards per touch (YPT from now on) was 5.92 (which it was) and a certain player were to have a YPT value of 6.911 (like Tom Brady does this year).
6.911/5.92 = 1.1689
1.1689*100 = 116.89
Therefore, like OPS+ and ERA+ in baseball, I get a number where above 100 is above average and below 100 is below average. Much like quarterback rating, I capped the possible number at 200 (twice as good as league average) and then divided each of the metrics by 4. I know 4 seems like a random number but if you were twice as good as league average in all four metrics, then your MR (Murphy Rating, as I’ve decided to call it) would be an even 200 and I like nice round even numbers. Accordingly, league average is 100, just as it was before.
THE RESULTS
This year, Michael Vick has turned the corner as a quarterback. His QB Rating is 104.3, easily a career high, and his 483 rushing yards already rank 15th for quarterbacks since 1990 and with three games to go if he were to maintain his average, he would go up to 7th. Surely with this dual threat combination, he is having just as good a season as his counterparts that stand like a statue in the pocket and distribute the magic bean.
Nope, this year, Michael Vick ranks just 4th in MR, behind Aaron Rodgers (who is mobile), and two guys that will never be mistaken for track champions, Matt Cassell and Tom Brady. So why is Vick only fourth in by far his best season since being drafted with the number one overall selection? Why do running quarterbacks still not measure up? Well, there are two explanations and one of them is apparently that I am racist.
If any of you reading this know me, you’ll know that’s ridiculous. There is another explanation and it might be a possibly reason why black quarterbacks get paid a little less or why they are continually underrated.
Michael Vick has a better YPT, TD% (touchdown percentage), and yards per game (YPG from now on) than both Aaron Rodgers and Matt Cassell and a better YPT and YPG mark than Tom Brady. Why is he ranked behind them? It’s that fourth metric, the turnover percentage (TO% from now on). Vick has thrown 4 interceptions, the same number as Cassell and Brady and 6 fewer than Rodgers. However, here are their pass attempts this year:
Brady – 425
Rodgers – 410
Cassell – 354
Vick – 294
Now here’s the other part that perhaps wasn’t fully thought through by those who said that the Quarterback Rating needed to be rethought. When Michael Vick tucks the ball and heads upfield, he doesn’t always tuck the ball. I’ve seen many replays where he’s holding the ball at arm’s length as if he’s about to throw the ball well beyond the line of scrimmage. So what, am I saying he can’t hold onto the ball? Not at all, on the contrary, I’m saying it’s much easier for a defender to knock the ball loose. Despite carrying the ball 82 times for 483 yards and 7 touchdowns this year, Vick has fumbled the ball 9 times. When you take that into account, his running ability seems to be mitigated by his turnovers. Why is Aaron Rodgers ranked ahead of Vick? Mostly because Vick has turned the ball over 13 times in a total of 401 touches (rushes, sacks, and pass attempts). Aaron Rodgers has 492 such touches and only 12 turnovers. Matt Cassell is surprisingly high because he is at 395 and 6, respectively, and Brady is number one this year because he has only turned the ball over 6 times and has a total of 474 touches.
In 2006 Michael Vick set the record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 1,039 and in this sample, that season ranks only 256th (or in the 61st percentile) because he turned the ball over 22 times while providing 22 touchdowns. On top of that, his total yards per touch were very low that year, mostly because his yards per pass attempt was significantly lower (6.4) than his yards per rush attempt (8.4).
THE BEST
If you look at the quarterbacks that did well in this analysis, they do have one thing in common; they can throw the football. If you look at the top of the MR rankings, there are several quarterbacks who could run the ball but they could still throw it. In Steve Young’s best 5 seasons, he ranked 3rd, 7th, 10th, 13th, and 16th in MR and combined to rush for 2,106 yards. His lowest passer rating in those five years was 101.1.
Of the top ten seasons, the average number of passing yards was 3,781 and passing touchdowns was 32.9. By contrast, those ten averaged just 187 rushing yards, a decent total from a quarterback but hardly at the level of a “running” quarterback. Most notable when you’re looking at that top ten list is the fact that those quarterbacks combined for 356 touchdowns and just 130 turnovers.
These are the top ten seasons of the past 20 years:
Name (year)
MR (out of 200)
Touches-Yards-TD-Turnovers
Tom Brady (2007)
163.9
636-4,776-52-14
Peyton Manning (2006)
155.8
594-4,347-35-11
Steve Young (1994)
154.9
550-4,099-42-14
Peyton Manning (2004)
153.8
535-4,494-49-15
Randall Cunningham (1998)
152.8
477-3,704-35-12
Donovan McNabb (2006)
148.9
369-2,719-21-9
Steve Young (1991)
147.3
358-2,853-21-11
Kurt Warner (1999)
144.6
551-4,244-42-22
Tom Brady (2010)
143.5
474-3,276-30-6
Steve Young (1992)
141.1
507-3,850-29-16
SUMMATION
Is it coincidence that black quarterbacks have only two of those ten seasons? Yes, it is. Every action in football has a tradeoff. When you throw a pass, it’s possible that it can get intercepted. When you tuck the ball and run, it’s possible that the ball can get stripped from your hands. Considering that many quarterbacks are taught for their entire careers to avoid interceptions and perhaps aren’t taught at all to properly cradle the ball to protect it from defenders, it shouldn’t be that surprising that quarterbacks have high fumble rates and running quarterbacks have even higher fumble rates.
Of the top 12 rushing seasons by QB’s since 1990, seven of them have fumbled more than 10 times. While Daunte Culpepper rushed for 609 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2002, he also fumbled the ball 23 times.
So the real question is, who would you rather have on your team, a guy who may not make spectacular plays with his feet but turns the ball over about once a game or the guy who will make the highlight reel every Sunday night but will give the ball to the defense 25-30 times in a season?
Am I racist when I say that Michael Vick and Donovan McNabb aren’t as good as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning? Some of you may think so but I don’t think I am. Many people say that success as a quarterback is measured by how many rings you have and while Manning has one and Brady three, McNabb and Vick have combined for zero. Peyton Manning will probably break nearly ever career passing record in the books and will hold them for a very long time. Brady has an excellent shot at a fourth ring this year despite a porous defense. Donovan McNabb is finally finding out what it’s like to play on a team that isn’t studded with Pro Bowlers and Michael Vick has a good shot at a deep run in the playoffs because he is now on a balanced team.
I’m all for using more tools to evaluate quarterbacks, but to put guys like McNabb and Vick in the conversation with Manning and Brady (when considering their careers) is nothing short of ludicrous and that has nothing to do with the color of their skin.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
BCS Preview 2011 - Fiesta Bowl
Shortly after TCU or Wisconsin takes a knee to seal a victory in the “Granddaddy of Them All”, Connecticut and Oklahoma will kick off in this year’s version of the Fiesta Bowl.
Oklahoma got to this point by finishing 10-2, winning the Big XII South, and then defeating Nebraska 23-20 to get the conference’s automatic BCS bid.
Connecticut got here by winning five straight games after starting the season 3-4. They got here because of a contractual obligation to include the winner of the Big East every year but it’s somewhat difficult to debate (in a perfect world) that they belong here. In the regular season, 20 teams won 10 or more games and another 6, including one in their own conference (9-3 West Virginia) won 9 games. Of those 26 teams, 17 of them are not going to play in a BCS bowl.
My goal here is not to slight the achievement of the Huskies football team this year. My goal is much more to put a shot across the bow of the BCS and ask, yet again, why a sub-par team from what is currently a sub-par conference allowed to play in one of the most prestigious bowl games in the country? The answer, of course, is money. While that is true, it doesn’t make the pill any easier to swallow.
BY THE NUMBERS
Oklahoma has huge advantages offensively and only concedes a little defensively to UConn’s ranks. While the Sooners ranked 4th in passing offense and 13th in total offense, Connecticut ranked 112th and 96th, respectively, in those categories. How did the Huskies win 8 games? With their ground game, which ranked 31st in the country, and their defense, which ranked only 48th in yards allowed but 23rd in points allowed per game.
UConn will need to take the air out of the ball and keep Oklahoma’s offense off the field or this game could get ugly.
CONNECTICUT WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jordan Todman will put the entire team on his back and carry them to victory. He rushed for 1,574 yards this season (with a per game average of 143.1 yards per game which ranked second in the country to Oregon’s LaMichael James) and 14 touchdowns. He carried the ball more than 25 times for more than 100 yards in each of the Huskies’ last five games, all UConn wins. Their only hope against the Sooners is to keep the score low and hope that they are able to force turnovers.
KEY STAT: Connecticut is ranked 91st in net punting this year at 34.75 yards per punt.
OKLAHOMA WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have a dynamic offense led by sophomore Landry Jones. Their defense is passable (63rd against the run, 51st against the pass, 58th overall) but they were in the top ten in net punting and turnover margin, showing a bend-but-don’t-break trend on defense.
In his second full season as a starter, Landry Jones made great strides, increasing his passer rating from 130.8 to 145.2 while throwing for 4,289 yards with a completion percentage of 65.3%. Behind him, DeMarco Murray rushed for 1,121 yards and 14 touchdowns which included four 100 yard performances.
THE VERDICT
This one is pretty easy. Oklahoma should be a big favorite and much like their fellow Big East champion of several years ago (Pittsburgh), they are going to find themselves outmatched.
Oklahoma 31, Connecticut 14
Oklahoma got to this point by finishing 10-2, winning the Big XII South, and then defeating Nebraska 23-20 to get the conference’s automatic BCS bid.
Connecticut got here by winning five straight games after starting the season 3-4. They got here because of a contractual obligation to include the winner of the Big East every year but it’s somewhat difficult to debate (in a perfect world) that they belong here. In the regular season, 20 teams won 10 or more games and another 6, including one in their own conference (9-3 West Virginia) won 9 games. Of those 26 teams, 17 of them are not going to play in a BCS bowl.
My goal here is not to slight the achievement of the Huskies football team this year. My goal is much more to put a shot across the bow of the BCS and ask, yet again, why a sub-par team from what is currently a sub-par conference allowed to play in one of the most prestigious bowl games in the country? The answer, of course, is money. While that is true, it doesn’t make the pill any easier to swallow.
BY THE NUMBERS
Oklahoma has huge advantages offensively and only concedes a little defensively to UConn’s ranks. While the Sooners ranked 4th in passing offense and 13th in total offense, Connecticut ranked 112th and 96th, respectively, in those categories. How did the Huskies win 8 games? With their ground game, which ranked 31st in the country, and their defense, which ranked only 48th in yards allowed but 23rd in points allowed per game.
UConn will need to take the air out of the ball and keep Oklahoma’s offense off the field or this game could get ugly.
CONNECTICUT WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jordan Todman will put the entire team on his back and carry them to victory. He rushed for 1,574 yards this season (with a per game average of 143.1 yards per game which ranked second in the country to Oregon’s LaMichael James) and 14 touchdowns. He carried the ball more than 25 times for more than 100 yards in each of the Huskies’ last five games, all UConn wins. Their only hope against the Sooners is to keep the score low and hope that they are able to force turnovers.
KEY STAT: Connecticut is ranked 91st in net punting this year at 34.75 yards per punt.
OKLAHOMA WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have a dynamic offense led by sophomore Landry Jones. Their defense is passable (63rd against the run, 51st against the pass, 58th overall) but they were in the top ten in net punting and turnover margin, showing a bend-but-don’t-break trend on defense.
In his second full season as a starter, Landry Jones made great strides, increasing his passer rating from 130.8 to 145.2 while throwing for 4,289 yards with a completion percentage of 65.3%. Behind him, DeMarco Murray rushed for 1,121 yards and 14 touchdowns which included four 100 yard performances.
THE VERDICT
This one is pretty easy. Oklahoma should be a big favorite and much like their fellow Big East champion of several years ago (Pittsburgh), they are going to find themselves outmatched.
Oklahoma 31, Connecticut 14
BCS Preview 2011 - Rose Bowl
It’s that time of year again! The final BCS standings have come out and unlike several years past, there are relatively few arguments to be made about the selections for the BCS. Granted, there is one glaring team that doesn’t seem to belong (we’re looking at you, Huskies) but that’s just the annual problem with giving six conferences automatic bids when there are bound to be down years for each and every conference in the country.
This is my third year writing previews for the BCS games and so far my record is dead even at 5-5. Two years ago I managed to get four of the five games right, missing out on a perfect BCS season because Alabama decided to only play three quarters instead of four against Utah. Last year was the exact opposite as Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, TCU, and Oregon all disappointed me. The one constant is that I have correctly picked both national champions so if you feel like placing a wager…
So we start off our BCS conversation in Pasadena, California, with the Rose Bowl.
In my opinion this game this year could be called the Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Bowl. In the 2011 Rose Bowl Game provided by Vizio, played January 1st at 5:00 Eastern Standard Time on ESPN, the Texas Christian Horned Frogs will square off against the Wisconsin Badgers. While the Badgers haven’t had anything to do with the recent controversy surround Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee’s comments, they couldn’t help but be dragged into the mix and the reason is simple; they beat Ohio State. On October 16th, Ohio State came into Camp Randall as the #1 team in the country and left with their first loss. If TCU managed to beat Wisconsin, it will prolong the embarrassment for Gee even though he has already retracted his absurd comments.
What is at stake for TCU? Everything. This is, in my opinion, the very rare instance where they have everything to win and everything to lose at the same time. If they lose, people will say that they can’t compete at this level and it will set back the cause of the TCU’s and Utah’s and Boise State’s by several years. If they can pull this game out, then they can say they beat a very good team from a BCS conference (not Pittsburgh or UConn or whoever gets the nod from the Big East) in a neutral site where the BCS conference member has very few excuses to use about why they lost. The fates of 55 teams spread across five conferences are all going to watch this game eagerly and no matter how much they hate TCU, on January 1st they should all be fans of the Horned Frogs.
BY THE NUMBERS
This game matches two of the more impressive statistical resumes that exist in the BCS games this year and there isn’t a large advantage on either side but where you see the biggest difference is in their respective defensive rankings.
TCU was ranked 3rd against the rush (89.17 yards per game), 1st against the pass (126.25), 1st in pass efficiency defense (93.12 opponent’s quarterback rating), 1st in overall defense (215.42), and first in scoring defense (11.42 points per game).
Wisconsin’s offensive ranks in those five categories are 12th, 74th, 17th, 3rd, and 4th, respectively. This is definitely going to be a strength vs. strength match-up when the Badgers have the ball and that could very well determine who wins this game.
TCU WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have a chip on their shoulder the size of Texas. They have played in one BCS bowl and because of a fake punt by Boise State, they were not able to pull the game out (granted, the game was tied at the time but that was the play that sent the Broncos on their way to victory). On top of that, the president of a university with one of the more prestigious football programs in the country came out and slammed several football programs by name, including TCU’s. If you think that Gary Patterson isn’t using that to motivate his team against the only team to beat Ohio State this year, you are flat out wrong.
The Horned Frogs are a senior laden bunch and that, as much as anything else, works greatly in their favor in this game. They also played in a BCS bowl just a year ago while the Badgers haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since they beat UCLA and Stanford in back to back years in 1999 and 2000.
TCU was outstanding on offense (8th in rushing, 9th in total offense, 4th in scoring offense) and was even better on defense (see defensive rankings above). They allowed 10 or fewer points in 8 of their 12 games this year and allowed more than 24 just once.
Their special teams are also quite good as they ranked 5th in both punt return average and kick return average. If this game turns into a shootout, it could very much go either way. If it turns into a field position defensive struggle, I think that the advantage is definitely in TCU’s favor.
KEY STAT: You want more evidence of how their experience has shown this season? As a team they have allowed only 9 sacks and have thrown just 6 interceptions all season.
WISCONSIN WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They cannot be stopped on offense. 6 times this year they have scored more than 40 points and in three of those games, they topped 70. They did have a close call against a 6-6 Arizona State team (at home, no less) two weeks before suffering their only defeat against Michigan State but since then, only Iowa has played within 13 points of the Badgers.
Offensively, they are led by the three headed monster of James White, John Clay, and Montee Ball who have combined to rush for 2,829 yards (with a 6.1 yard per carry average) and 44 touchdowns. That sort of ridiculous production has led to Scott Tolzien having a fantastic year, despite only throwing the ball about 20 times per game. His passer rating of 169.8 ranks 4th nationally and he has been consistent this year, not prone to too many up and down performances.
Defensively, the Badgers haven’t been nearly as good and that unit is most critical to their success against Andy Dalton and TCU. They ranked just 49th in pass efficiency defense and part of that can be explained by the fact that given their enormous leads in several games, their opponents will have been throwing the ball all over the field in an attempt to keep up with Wisconsin. It still means, however, that their pass defense is suspect. They also ranked 29th in scoring defense and did surrender 20 or more points 7 times, including 30 to Iowa and 34 to Michigan State in their one loss.
KEY STAT: Wisconsin ranked 3rd this year in turnover margin at +1.17 per game.
THE VERDICT
I went with TCU a year ago and they let me down. They won’t do it to me again.
In short, their defense is too good. I know that their numbers have been inflated slightly by playing against the Mountain West Conference but even if you could adjust for the competition that they are playing, they still have an elite, senior heavy defense. Their defensive unit has 10 seniors and 6 of them played in every game this year.
On the other side of the ball, four of their five offensive lineman are seniors and the fifth is a junior and most importantly, Andy Dalton is a senior wanting put an exclamation point on a career that so far has a 41-8 record.
Most of all though, this is one of the few real shots that a team from a non-BCS conference will have to go toe to toe with a top five team from a BCS conference on a neutral field and the Horned Frogs will be ready.
I think that TCU will come out of the gate and hit Wisconsin in the mouth in the first quarter before settling down to a defensive, field position battle similar to the way Utah beat Alabama two years ago.
TCU 28, WISCONSIN 21
This is my third year writing previews for the BCS games and so far my record is dead even at 5-5. Two years ago I managed to get four of the five games right, missing out on a perfect BCS season because Alabama decided to only play three quarters instead of four against Utah. Last year was the exact opposite as Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, TCU, and Oregon all disappointed me. The one constant is that I have correctly picked both national champions so if you feel like placing a wager…
So we start off our BCS conversation in Pasadena, California, with the Rose Bowl.
In my opinion this game this year could be called the Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Bowl. In the 2011 Rose Bowl Game provided by Vizio, played January 1st at 5:00 Eastern Standard Time on ESPN, the Texas Christian Horned Frogs will square off against the Wisconsin Badgers. While the Badgers haven’t had anything to do with the recent controversy surround Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee’s comments, they couldn’t help but be dragged into the mix and the reason is simple; they beat Ohio State. On October 16th, Ohio State came into Camp Randall as the #1 team in the country and left with their first loss. If TCU managed to beat Wisconsin, it will prolong the embarrassment for Gee even though he has already retracted his absurd comments.
What is at stake for TCU? Everything. This is, in my opinion, the very rare instance where they have everything to win and everything to lose at the same time. If they lose, people will say that they can’t compete at this level and it will set back the cause of the TCU’s and Utah’s and Boise State’s by several years. If they can pull this game out, then they can say they beat a very good team from a BCS conference (not Pittsburgh or UConn or whoever gets the nod from the Big East) in a neutral site where the BCS conference member has very few excuses to use about why they lost. The fates of 55 teams spread across five conferences are all going to watch this game eagerly and no matter how much they hate TCU, on January 1st they should all be fans of the Horned Frogs.
BY THE NUMBERS
This game matches two of the more impressive statistical resumes that exist in the BCS games this year and there isn’t a large advantage on either side but where you see the biggest difference is in their respective defensive rankings.
TCU was ranked 3rd against the rush (89.17 yards per game), 1st against the pass (126.25), 1st in pass efficiency defense (93.12 opponent’s quarterback rating), 1st in overall defense (215.42), and first in scoring defense (11.42 points per game).
Wisconsin’s offensive ranks in those five categories are 12th, 74th, 17th, 3rd, and 4th, respectively. This is definitely going to be a strength vs. strength match-up when the Badgers have the ball and that could very well determine who wins this game.
TCU WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have a chip on their shoulder the size of Texas. They have played in one BCS bowl and because of a fake punt by Boise State, they were not able to pull the game out (granted, the game was tied at the time but that was the play that sent the Broncos on their way to victory). On top of that, the president of a university with one of the more prestigious football programs in the country came out and slammed several football programs by name, including TCU’s. If you think that Gary Patterson isn’t using that to motivate his team against the only team to beat Ohio State this year, you are flat out wrong.
The Horned Frogs are a senior laden bunch and that, as much as anything else, works greatly in their favor in this game. They also played in a BCS bowl just a year ago while the Badgers haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since they beat UCLA and Stanford in back to back years in 1999 and 2000.
TCU was outstanding on offense (8th in rushing, 9th in total offense, 4th in scoring offense) and was even better on defense (see defensive rankings above). They allowed 10 or fewer points in 8 of their 12 games this year and allowed more than 24 just once.
Their special teams are also quite good as they ranked 5th in both punt return average and kick return average. If this game turns into a shootout, it could very much go either way. If it turns into a field position defensive struggle, I think that the advantage is definitely in TCU’s favor.
KEY STAT: You want more evidence of how their experience has shown this season? As a team they have allowed only 9 sacks and have thrown just 6 interceptions all season.
WISCONSIN WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They cannot be stopped on offense. 6 times this year they have scored more than 40 points and in three of those games, they topped 70. They did have a close call against a 6-6 Arizona State team (at home, no less) two weeks before suffering their only defeat against Michigan State but since then, only Iowa has played within 13 points of the Badgers.
Offensively, they are led by the three headed monster of James White, John Clay, and Montee Ball who have combined to rush for 2,829 yards (with a 6.1 yard per carry average) and 44 touchdowns. That sort of ridiculous production has led to Scott Tolzien having a fantastic year, despite only throwing the ball about 20 times per game. His passer rating of 169.8 ranks 4th nationally and he has been consistent this year, not prone to too many up and down performances.
Defensively, the Badgers haven’t been nearly as good and that unit is most critical to their success against Andy Dalton and TCU. They ranked just 49th in pass efficiency defense and part of that can be explained by the fact that given their enormous leads in several games, their opponents will have been throwing the ball all over the field in an attempt to keep up with Wisconsin. It still means, however, that their pass defense is suspect. They also ranked 29th in scoring defense and did surrender 20 or more points 7 times, including 30 to Iowa and 34 to Michigan State in their one loss.
KEY STAT: Wisconsin ranked 3rd this year in turnover margin at +1.17 per game.
THE VERDICT
I went with TCU a year ago and they let me down. They won’t do it to me again.
In short, their defense is too good. I know that their numbers have been inflated slightly by playing against the Mountain West Conference but even if you could adjust for the competition that they are playing, they still have an elite, senior heavy defense. Their defensive unit has 10 seniors and 6 of them played in every game this year.
On the other side of the ball, four of their five offensive lineman are seniors and the fifth is a junior and most importantly, Andy Dalton is a senior wanting put an exclamation point on a career that so far has a 41-8 record.
Most of all though, this is one of the few real shots that a team from a non-BCS conference will have to go toe to toe with a top five team from a BCS conference on a neutral field and the Horned Frogs will be ready.
I think that TCU will come out of the gate and hit Wisconsin in the mouth in the first quarter before settling down to a defensive, field position battle similar to the way Utah beat Alabama two years ago.
TCU 28, WISCONSIN 21
Thursday, December 2, 2010
State of Football Address - FBS Edition
The calendar says December now which means that attention has turned from the regular season grind to studying for finals and winter vacation on college campuses all over the country… yeah, right.
Once again we have started our annual dance to try to figure out the permutations that will allow certain teams to leapfrog certain other teams in the annual beauty pageant that the NCAA refers to as the BCS. This year though, thanks to a plucky Wolfpack, it’s a lot more straightforward and the cries of BCS opponents have become somewhat muted. Instead of arguing over who gets to play for the top prize, the arguments this year surround the much less contentious topic of who gets to play in the BCS bowls.
For instance, in the Big Ten, three teams have identical 11-1 (7-1) records, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State and as of this past Sunday, they are ranked 5th, 6th, and 8th, respectively, in the BCS. Under past Big Ten tiebreaking rules, they would have sent the team that was suffering the longest current Rose Bowl drought to Pasadena, which would have sent the Spartans to the parade of roses. However, currently, they simply use whoever is the highest ranked team in the BCS, which will more or less inevitably send the Badgers to the Rose Bowl. While I feel bad for Michigan State, who had a great season, I have a hard time arguing that Wisconsin doesn’t deserve to go given that for several weeks now, they have been the absolute best team in the Big Ten (though I believe that the football gods may be putting them up on a pedestal only to knock them down because of their three victories by scores of 70-23, 70-3, and 83-20).
As much as I am a fan of the underdogs, this simply wasn’t their season. For almost all of last year, I believed that TCU was a more worthy candidate than Boise State and that belief got thrown back in my face in the Fiesta Bowl in the form of a head to head loss to the Smurf Turf Broncos. After that game, I became a believer in Chris Peterson and Kellen Moore along with the other 19 starters they had returning but nobody who mattered seemed to jump on the bandwagon. They started the season 5th in the polls and seemed to be fighting an immense uphill battle, getting leapfrogged in the rankings four times by Oklahoma, Auburn, Oregon, and TCU. Despite winning a de facto road game against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season, they only gained ground but never moved up the rankings. After starting the season at #3, they moved up in the standings just twice and both occurrences were after a leapfrogging team that had pushed them down to #4 lost.
I’m not asking you to feel sorry for Boise State. They knew coming into this season that in order to play for the ultimate prize, they had to be perfect and in the end, they couldn’t do it, losing a heartbreaker to Nevada 34-31, missing two short field goals and getting dominated in the second half. Now all the focus shifts to TCU and unless the Gamecocks can beat Auburn, TCU will have to settle for the Rose Bowl and while that pales in comparison to the BCS National Championship Game, that’s one hell of a consolation prize. Trust me, I’m a fan of the Washington Huskies; I’d love to have my team playing in the Rose Bowl this year.
THE BOWLS
Right now the Bowl picture seems pretty clear but there is still plenty of room for chaos and that all starts Saturday in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. #1 Auburn will play #19 South Carolina in a rematch of one of the few games that Auburn struggled in this year. If the Tigers manage to lose, then TCU will undoubtedly move up to #2 and play Oregon for the national title. However, I do have to mention that Oregon plays Oregon State in the Civil War game and even though the Beavers are 5-6, you always have to take rivalry games seriously because anything can happen.
Barring disaster, Oregon and Auburn will play for all the marbles. TCU and Stanford will get into the BCS party via the “3-4 rule” saying that the 3rd and 4th ranked teams in the BCS are guaranteed BCS Bowl berths. Wisconsin looks all but certain to win the BCS tiebreakers in the Big Ten, which will leave Ohio State and Michigan State hoping for an at-large bid.
The Big XII Championship Game will be one of the more interesting games, pitting #9 Oklahoma against #13 Nebraska. Likewise, the ACC title game between #15 Virginia Tech and #21 Florida State will also be an interesting game as Virginia Tech attempts to finish their undefeated ACC season.
Which leaves the Big East. I never would have expected to write these words in all my life when talking about football… Connecticut controls their own destiny in the Big East. In that respect, it is one heck of a weird season. It is also easy to see why TCU will join the Big East which is quite simply the weakest conference with an automatic BCS bid. I’m very near willing to pencil in TCU for that berth for the next year or two but I digress.
That gives us a total of eight teams in the BCS; who will the last two be? According to BCS rules, the following teams are eligible for at-large bids (excluding those already mentioned above), placed in order of BCS rankings:
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#8 Michigan State (11-1)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2)
#10 LSU (10-2)
#11 Boise State (10-1)
#12 Missouri (10-2)
Ironically, the result of the ACC and Big XII Championship Games will not affect these selections one little bit because of these teams, the choices are fairly obvious. If you run a BCS Bowl Game and you’re looking at that list of seven teams, which ones would be most likely to sell every ticket that you give to them? My guess would be Ohio State, Oklahoma, and LSU. However, since Auburn is most likely going to the title game, the Sugar Bowl would love to select an SEC team as an at-large bid and considering that it’s just a 10 hour drive from Fayetteville, Arkansas, to New Orleans I think we can safely assume that Arkansas will pack the house.
So, Missouri is out. Boise State is out (much to the old guard’s delight). LSU is out due to a head to head loss to Arkansas. Oklahoma is either going to get in via the automatic Big XII bid or they will not make it with a 10-3 record. Michigan State was a fantastic story this year but fell short of Ohio State if for no other reason, then the quality of their loss. The Spartans one loss came to an Iowa team that is now 7-5 while Ohio State’s only loss is to #5 Wisconsin. Also, it isn’t as likely that the Michigan State faithful will travel to the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl as well as the two teams above them.
That only leaves two more teams and those will be your last two at-large teams. To recap, barring some sort of terrible disaster this weekend at the hands of Oregon State and/or South Carolina, the BCS participants should be the following teams.
#1 Auburn (12-0)
#2 Oregon (11-0)
#3 TCU (12-0)
#4 Stanford (11-1)
#5 Wisconsin (11-1)
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2) or #13 Nebraska (10-2)
#15 Virginia Tech (10-2) or #21 Florida State (9-3)
Connecticut (7-4)
THE HEISMAN TROPHY
With any luck the elephant in the room just turned out to be some strange show on TV. While I wish that TCU was gearing up to play for the national title against Oregon, I would never wish for Cam Newton’s amazing season to be derailed by recruiting violations. If the story that was posted on espn.com yesterday is true and he had nothing to do with the pay-for-play deal, then I think he should be able to play and I think his father should be ashamed of himself. If it’s not true and Newton did know about it, then he just dodged a bullet and yet another instance of corruption slips through the NCAA cracks.
I’m not saying that NCAA football players should get paid millions of dollar but when this much money and pride is at stake, it’s easy to see the temptation for many of these players. They don’t always come from wealthy families and it’s easy to justify taking a few thousand dollars when your family is on welfare. The NCAA needs to do several things and at the top of that list is get rid of the illusion of the amateur athlete. In principle it’s a very nice concept but what do you say to the Universities getting rich off of the labor of amateur athletes? According to a study done, the University of Florida spent about $80 million on its football program in the four years that Tim Tebow was playing for them. According to that same report, the revenue of the football program over that same time was $280 million. While I understand that Tebow himself was not responsible for that $200 million profit (two SEC championships and two BCS National Championships had quite a bit to do with that), he certainly helped.
Is it fair that the NCAA makes obscene amounts of money and doesn’t even have to pay their workers that are most responsible for it? Not really. I know that the NCAA and university presidents will say that these young men are getting a world class education for free. While that may be true, is $10,000-30,000 a year enough to prevent 18-22 year old kids from being seduced by boosters and agents when very little (if any) of that money is disposable income? You would hope it is but history shows us that it isn’t.
What’s the solution? Adding stipends to scholarships. Maybe $5,000 per semester or per year or something along those lines. I’m not sure but something has to be done and at the top of that list is getting the NCAA to pull its head out of the sand.
UMM, BACK TO THE HEISMAN…
Ah yes, the trophy that I was originally going to talk about in that section. This is one of those years where the decision is easy. I almost wonder if the NCAA expedited their investigation to make things easier on the Heisman Trust (probably not) or the BCS (most definitely). Once they declared Cam Newton eligible and not in violation of NCAA rules, you could have started engraving his name on the trophy right then and there.
I may not be a huge Cam Newton fan, especially since plenty of Heisman winners managed to make it through their college careers without even being accused of something as bad as pay-for-play, but there is no question in my mind that he deserves the Heisman. If there were such a verbose award, he would also get the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision MVP Award. His season is littered with Heisman moments, culminating with his superb second half on the road against #11 Alabama (detractors of Newton will quickly point out that in the first half of that game, Newton was nearly invisible but then again, so was the entire Auburn team).
He ranked second in the nation in passer efficiency at 185.6 (Kellen Moore led at 188.0), throwing 24 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions while completing 67.9% of his passes. He also ranked 10th nationally with 1,336 yards rushing (leading the SEC) and 3rd nationally with 18 rushing touchdowns.
In my mind the only other viable candidate was Kellen Moore. His final numbers (188.0 rating, 3,269 yards on just 311 attempts, 71.1% completing percentage, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions) are gaudy but what really stood out to me was the fact that in his last three games, his overall rating dropped each time and his rating in each of those games was 180.9, 174.1, and 180.1, respectively. He had four games with a rating over 200 and his lowest of the season was 134.1 when he threw three touchdowns without an interception (basically on the road) against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season.
I don’t disagree with Cam Newton getting the Heisman and to be honest, if I had a vote, he’d be my winner. All I’m saying is that I’m hoping Kellen Moore doesn’t get overlooked the way that Boise State did this year.
Well, that’s about all for now. Later I’ll be weighing in after the BCS match-ups to provide predictions and analysis. Until then, get ready for a Saturday full of good football!
Once again we have started our annual dance to try to figure out the permutations that will allow certain teams to leapfrog certain other teams in the annual beauty pageant that the NCAA refers to as the BCS. This year though, thanks to a plucky Wolfpack, it’s a lot more straightforward and the cries of BCS opponents have become somewhat muted. Instead of arguing over who gets to play for the top prize, the arguments this year surround the much less contentious topic of who gets to play in the BCS bowls.
For instance, in the Big Ten, three teams have identical 11-1 (7-1) records, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State and as of this past Sunday, they are ranked 5th, 6th, and 8th, respectively, in the BCS. Under past Big Ten tiebreaking rules, they would have sent the team that was suffering the longest current Rose Bowl drought to Pasadena, which would have sent the Spartans to the parade of roses. However, currently, they simply use whoever is the highest ranked team in the BCS, which will more or less inevitably send the Badgers to the Rose Bowl. While I feel bad for Michigan State, who had a great season, I have a hard time arguing that Wisconsin doesn’t deserve to go given that for several weeks now, they have been the absolute best team in the Big Ten (though I believe that the football gods may be putting them up on a pedestal only to knock them down because of their three victories by scores of 70-23, 70-3, and 83-20).
As much as I am a fan of the underdogs, this simply wasn’t their season. For almost all of last year, I believed that TCU was a more worthy candidate than Boise State and that belief got thrown back in my face in the Fiesta Bowl in the form of a head to head loss to the Smurf Turf Broncos. After that game, I became a believer in Chris Peterson and Kellen Moore along with the other 19 starters they had returning but nobody who mattered seemed to jump on the bandwagon. They started the season 5th in the polls and seemed to be fighting an immense uphill battle, getting leapfrogged in the rankings four times by Oklahoma, Auburn, Oregon, and TCU. Despite winning a de facto road game against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season, they only gained ground but never moved up the rankings. After starting the season at #3, they moved up in the standings just twice and both occurrences were after a leapfrogging team that had pushed them down to #4 lost.
I’m not asking you to feel sorry for Boise State. They knew coming into this season that in order to play for the ultimate prize, they had to be perfect and in the end, they couldn’t do it, losing a heartbreaker to Nevada 34-31, missing two short field goals and getting dominated in the second half. Now all the focus shifts to TCU and unless the Gamecocks can beat Auburn, TCU will have to settle for the Rose Bowl and while that pales in comparison to the BCS National Championship Game, that’s one hell of a consolation prize. Trust me, I’m a fan of the Washington Huskies; I’d love to have my team playing in the Rose Bowl this year.
THE BOWLS
Right now the Bowl picture seems pretty clear but there is still plenty of room for chaos and that all starts Saturday in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. #1 Auburn will play #19 South Carolina in a rematch of one of the few games that Auburn struggled in this year. If the Tigers manage to lose, then TCU will undoubtedly move up to #2 and play Oregon for the national title. However, I do have to mention that Oregon plays Oregon State in the Civil War game and even though the Beavers are 5-6, you always have to take rivalry games seriously because anything can happen.
Barring disaster, Oregon and Auburn will play for all the marbles. TCU and Stanford will get into the BCS party via the “3-4 rule” saying that the 3rd and 4th ranked teams in the BCS are guaranteed BCS Bowl berths. Wisconsin looks all but certain to win the BCS tiebreakers in the Big Ten, which will leave Ohio State and Michigan State hoping for an at-large bid.
The Big XII Championship Game will be one of the more interesting games, pitting #9 Oklahoma against #13 Nebraska. Likewise, the ACC title game between #15 Virginia Tech and #21 Florida State will also be an interesting game as Virginia Tech attempts to finish their undefeated ACC season.
Which leaves the Big East. I never would have expected to write these words in all my life when talking about football… Connecticut controls their own destiny in the Big East. In that respect, it is one heck of a weird season. It is also easy to see why TCU will join the Big East which is quite simply the weakest conference with an automatic BCS bid. I’m very near willing to pencil in TCU for that berth for the next year or two but I digress.
That gives us a total of eight teams in the BCS; who will the last two be? According to BCS rules, the following teams are eligible for at-large bids (excluding those already mentioned above), placed in order of BCS rankings:
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#8 Michigan State (11-1)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2)
#10 LSU (10-2)
#11 Boise State (10-1)
#12 Missouri (10-2)
Ironically, the result of the ACC and Big XII Championship Games will not affect these selections one little bit because of these teams, the choices are fairly obvious. If you run a BCS Bowl Game and you’re looking at that list of seven teams, which ones would be most likely to sell every ticket that you give to them? My guess would be Ohio State, Oklahoma, and LSU. However, since Auburn is most likely going to the title game, the Sugar Bowl would love to select an SEC team as an at-large bid and considering that it’s just a 10 hour drive from Fayetteville, Arkansas, to New Orleans I think we can safely assume that Arkansas will pack the house.
So, Missouri is out. Boise State is out (much to the old guard’s delight). LSU is out due to a head to head loss to Arkansas. Oklahoma is either going to get in via the automatic Big XII bid or they will not make it with a 10-3 record. Michigan State was a fantastic story this year but fell short of Ohio State if for no other reason, then the quality of their loss. The Spartans one loss came to an Iowa team that is now 7-5 while Ohio State’s only loss is to #5 Wisconsin. Also, it isn’t as likely that the Michigan State faithful will travel to the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl as well as the two teams above them.
That only leaves two more teams and those will be your last two at-large teams. To recap, barring some sort of terrible disaster this weekend at the hands of Oregon State and/or South Carolina, the BCS participants should be the following teams.
#1 Auburn (12-0)
#2 Oregon (11-0)
#3 TCU (12-0)
#4 Stanford (11-1)
#5 Wisconsin (11-1)
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2) or #13 Nebraska (10-2)
#15 Virginia Tech (10-2) or #21 Florida State (9-3)
Connecticut (7-4)
THE HEISMAN TROPHY
With any luck the elephant in the room just turned out to be some strange show on TV. While I wish that TCU was gearing up to play for the national title against Oregon, I would never wish for Cam Newton’s amazing season to be derailed by recruiting violations. If the story that was posted on espn.com yesterday is true and he had nothing to do with the pay-for-play deal, then I think he should be able to play and I think his father should be ashamed of himself. If it’s not true and Newton did know about it, then he just dodged a bullet and yet another instance of corruption slips through the NCAA cracks.
I’m not saying that NCAA football players should get paid millions of dollar but when this much money and pride is at stake, it’s easy to see the temptation for many of these players. They don’t always come from wealthy families and it’s easy to justify taking a few thousand dollars when your family is on welfare. The NCAA needs to do several things and at the top of that list is get rid of the illusion of the amateur athlete. In principle it’s a very nice concept but what do you say to the Universities getting rich off of the labor of amateur athletes? According to a study done, the University of Florida spent about $80 million on its football program in the four years that Tim Tebow was playing for them. According to that same report, the revenue of the football program over that same time was $280 million. While I understand that Tebow himself was not responsible for that $200 million profit (two SEC championships and two BCS National Championships had quite a bit to do with that), he certainly helped.
Is it fair that the NCAA makes obscene amounts of money and doesn’t even have to pay their workers that are most responsible for it? Not really. I know that the NCAA and university presidents will say that these young men are getting a world class education for free. While that may be true, is $10,000-30,000 a year enough to prevent 18-22 year old kids from being seduced by boosters and agents when very little (if any) of that money is disposable income? You would hope it is but history shows us that it isn’t.
What’s the solution? Adding stipends to scholarships. Maybe $5,000 per semester or per year or something along those lines. I’m not sure but something has to be done and at the top of that list is getting the NCAA to pull its head out of the sand.
UMM, BACK TO THE HEISMAN…
Ah yes, the trophy that I was originally going to talk about in that section. This is one of those years where the decision is easy. I almost wonder if the NCAA expedited their investigation to make things easier on the Heisman Trust (probably not) or the BCS (most definitely). Once they declared Cam Newton eligible and not in violation of NCAA rules, you could have started engraving his name on the trophy right then and there.
I may not be a huge Cam Newton fan, especially since plenty of Heisman winners managed to make it through their college careers without even being accused of something as bad as pay-for-play, but there is no question in my mind that he deserves the Heisman. If there were such a verbose award, he would also get the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision MVP Award. His season is littered with Heisman moments, culminating with his superb second half on the road against #11 Alabama (detractors of Newton will quickly point out that in the first half of that game, Newton was nearly invisible but then again, so was the entire Auburn team).
He ranked second in the nation in passer efficiency at 185.6 (Kellen Moore led at 188.0), throwing 24 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions while completing 67.9% of his passes. He also ranked 10th nationally with 1,336 yards rushing (leading the SEC) and 3rd nationally with 18 rushing touchdowns.
In my mind the only other viable candidate was Kellen Moore. His final numbers (188.0 rating, 3,269 yards on just 311 attempts, 71.1% completing percentage, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions) are gaudy but what really stood out to me was the fact that in his last three games, his overall rating dropped each time and his rating in each of those games was 180.9, 174.1, and 180.1, respectively. He had four games with a rating over 200 and his lowest of the season was 134.1 when he threw three touchdowns without an interception (basically on the road) against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season.
I don’t disagree with Cam Newton getting the Heisman and to be honest, if I had a vote, he’d be my winner. All I’m saying is that I’m hoping Kellen Moore doesn’t get overlooked the way that Boise State did this year.
Well, that’s about all for now. Later I’ll be weighing in after the BCS match-ups to provide predictions and analysis. Until then, get ready for a Saturday full of good football!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
