There comes a point in the sporting career of certain people when their primary desire is to win and not to have fun. A good number of those people either play sports at a very high level or quit because they can’t make it to that high level and don’t win enough. For the rest of us mere mortals, we search for the moral victories within sporting events, the silver lining that makes the contest worth participating in despite the gut-wrenching loss.
If you ask the vast majority of quarterbacks in the NFL, would you rather throw for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns in a losing effort or throw for 100 yards and 5 interceptions, I’m willing to bet that they would say they’d rather have the latter. It is that desire to win above all else that makes them as good as they are.
So what is the silver lining for each of the five BCS bowl games? That is the question that I’m going to try to answer with one small addition. I’m going to describe a moral victory for each of the teams playing and then I’m also going to describe what a moral victory would be for college football fans at large. The one thing to remember though is when I’m talking about college football fans, I’m not talking about fans of the individual teams because it’s fairly obvious what a moral victory would be for those people; an actual victory.
For the most part, a moral victory for each individual team also includes actually outscoring their opponents come game day. However, there are some off the field factors at play in several of these match-ups that can lead to increased good feelings whether the outcome is a win or a loss.
ROSE BOWL
WISCONSIN
In a conference that has been dominated by Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, the Badgers have a chance to take a big step forward on the national stage. Their #5 ranking is the highest ranking they’ve had in the BCS era and their next game is against the #3 team in the country. If they win the Rose Bowl, their postseason ranking will be in the top four, if not third or even second, depending on the outcomes of the other BCS bowls.
Despite an overall record of 90-39 over the last ten years, the Badgers have won ten games only three times before this year and this is their first appearance in the Rose Bowl since January of 2001. Wisconsin has the chance to step to the forefront of the Big Ten by taking the conference title and winning what is arguably the most prestigious bowl game in college football.
TCU
The only match-up that could have been better for the Horned Frogs is either if they were playing in the national championship game or if they had drawn Ohio State in a BCS bowl. They happened to draw the only team this year to beat the Buckeyes and not only did Wisconsin beat the Buckeyes, they did it right after Ohio State had risen to #1 in the polls and they did it in a more humiliating manner than #1 teams are used to (31-18).
This is one of the few teams that doesn’t have to win to claim a moral victory. Wisconsin is playing some of the best football of the season, having outscored their last four opponents 235-84. All TCU has to do is play close to Wisconsin and they can make a logical inference that they played the Badgers just about as tough as the Buckeyes did back in the middle of October. If TCU can beat Wisconsin, it will be one last bit of egg on the face of E. Gorgon Gee, president of The Ohio State University. While the transitive law of sports doesn’t apply (just because A beats B and B beats C doesn’t mean that A is better than C), everyone will have to admit (no matter how begrudgingly) that TCU can play with any team in the country.
THE FANS
The silver lining is evenly divided for the fans. Some people want to see the imposter that is TCU lose and lose badly to prove that the five smaller conferences do not belong on the same stage as the six “automatic qualifier” conferences. Others want to see TCU lay a beat-down on Wisconsin to prove once and for all that teams from the smaller conference can compete with the best from the bigger conferences.
TCU has been one of the best teams from the non-AQ conferences for the last several years so some might say that if they don’t win and finish this season off undefeated, this year would be looked at as a disappointment. I completely disagree. They used this year, on top of the last few years, to get an invitation to join the Big East starting in 2012. Granted, I would have much rather seen them join the Big Used-To-Be-8-Then-12-Now-Is-10 or the Pac Used-To-Be-8-Then-10-Then-Almost-16-But-12-Instead, but now they never have to worry about being on the outside looking in simply because they play in the wrong conference.
This does bring up an interesting question though; is the best way to change a system from the outside looking in bringing the spotlight out onto the unfairness of the situation or is it to join the system and attempt to change it from the inside? Of the four teams that have made it to a BCS bowl from outside the 6 AQ conferences, two of them (TCU and Utah) have jumped ship and are joining the Big East and Pac-12, respectively. Interesting food for thought and perhaps another post in the future…
FIESTA BOWL
CONNECTICUT
The Huskies ranked behind 95 of the 120 FBS teams in total offense and behind 61 of them in scoring offense. A moral victory for them is not getting blown out. I hate to say it that way but considering that they went 8-4 this year and didn’t even have the best record in their own conference (West Virginia went 9-3) and that they are playing a team like Oklahoma, they are going to be huge underdogs and the fact of the matter is if they can keep the game close into the fourth quarter, they will have achieved a moral victory.
OKLAHOMA
There is virtually no way that Oklahoma can achieve a moral victory in this game. They are expected to win and they are expected to win big. The Sooners have nothing to win and everything to lose in this game. Unlike several years ago when they were facing off against Boise State, Connecticut is not going to be mistaken for one of the top ten teams in the country. Boise State was 12-0 going into that game and UConn’s 8-4 record is a far cry from the talent on that Broncos team.
ORANGE BOWL
VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies came into this season with legitimate aspirations to run the table in the ACC and challenge for the top two spots in the BCS standings. Those hopes weren’t even derailed with their opening night loss to #3 Boise State down the road from their Blacksburg, Virginia, campus. If everything went according to plan, after that game they would have finished the regular season 12-1 and would have been considered one of the best one-loss teams in the country. What really killed their lofty goals was their terrible loss to James Madison the week after losing to Boise State.
To rebound from those two losses and win 11 straight, becoming the first team to go 8-0 in ACC play, is a testament to the character of this team. To finish off this season with a win over a very good Stanford team would certainly help people forget how high their hopes were at the beginning of the season.
STANFORD
This season has already been a resounding success for the Cardinal and they currently have the hottest prospect for future NFL quarterbacks and future head coaches. Their only loss is to #2 Oregon that only lost their #1 ranking to Auburn because they played more ranked teams down the stretch. They will also be playing in just their second BCS bowl along with the 2000 Rose Bowl which they lost after an 8-3, Pac-10 champion season. They have already exceeded their expectations for this season and no matter how they do, this season will be a success.
SUGAR BOWL
OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes will be making their 6th consecutive BCS bowl appearance and their 9th in 13 years which, in and of itself, is a moral victory. They have been there and done that enough that they can’t really gain all that many points by not winning in a stylish manner. Their struggles against the SEC have been very well publicized and they are fresh out of excuses.
ARKANSAS
The fact that they are here is a moral victory. They survived their brutal SEC schedule to go 10-2 and get an at-large bid, their first BCS bowl appearance. This Ohio State team is a very good one so even if they don’t win and play well, it will still be considered a successful season. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain by beating Ohio State.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
AUBURN
Unfortunately, the biggest moral victory that Auburn can get is for the NCAA to close the investigation into Cam Newton’s pay-for-play controversy. They are ranked #1 in the country, they have the Heisman Trophy winner playing quarterback for them, and they seem to have everything in their favor right now. If we are assuming that they are going to lose the national title game, I would say the biggest thing they can do to achieve a moral victory would be to not get blown out. If their terribly porous pass defense and their stout run defense can put a stop to the Blur, it will be disappoint. If they can stop Oregon, they should win.
OREGON
The biggest consolation for the Ducks right now is with how poorly Auburn has been playing in the first halves and how well Cam Newton has been playing in the second halves, they are actually flying a little under the radar which intrigues me because Oregon is the better all around team and the better all around offense. Auburn goes as Newton goes but Oregon has multiple playmakers on offense to go to if any one of them aren’t having a great game. A month ago, I would have said that the oddsmakers would be favoring Oregon but after the Alabama game and then the SEC title game, I can definitely see them giving the nod to Auburn.
The Ducks have played outstanding offense and underrated defense while running the table in an underrated conference. Arguably the biggest moral victory that they could get would be the respect that the Pac-10 would gain if they and Stanford were able to win their bowl games. Take into account that some of their most prominent playmakers are underclassmen and you have to like where the Ducks are right now.
Showing posts with label Rose Bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rose Bowl. Show all posts
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
BCS Preview 2011 - Rose Bowl
It’s that time of year again! The final BCS standings have come out and unlike several years past, there are relatively few arguments to be made about the selections for the BCS. Granted, there is one glaring team that doesn’t seem to belong (we’re looking at you, Huskies) but that’s just the annual problem with giving six conferences automatic bids when there are bound to be down years for each and every conference in the country.
This is my third year writing previews for the BCS games and so far my record is dead even at 5-5. Two years ago I managed to get four of the five games right, missing out on a perfect BCS season because Alabama decided to only play three quarters instead of four against Utah. Last year was the exact opposite as Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, TCU, and Oregon all disappointed me. The one constant is that I have correctly picked both national champions so if you feel like placing a wager…
So we start off our BCS conversation in Pasadena, California, with the Rose Bowl.
In my opinion this game this year could be called the Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Bowl. In the 2011 Rose Bowl Game provided by Vizio, played January 1st at 5:00 Eastern Standard Time on ESPN, the Texas Christian Horned Frogs will square off against the Wisconsin Badgers. While the Badgers haven’t had anything to do with the recent controversy surround Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee’s comments, they couldn’t help but be dragged into the mix and the reason is simple; they beat Ohio State. On October 16th, Ohio State came into Camp Randall as the #1 team in the country and left with their first loss. If TCU managed to beat Wisconsin, it will prolong the embarrassment for Gee even though he has already retracted his absurd comments.
What is at stake for TCU? Everything. This is, in my opinion, the very rare instance where they have everything to win and everything to lose at the same time. If they lose, people will say that they can’t compete at this level and it will set back the cause of the TCU’s and Utah’s and Boise State’s by several years. If they can pull this game out, then they can say they beat a very good team from a BCS conference (not Pittsburgh or UConn or whoever gets the nod from the Big East) in a neutral site where the BCS conference member has very few excuses to use about why they lost. The fates of 55 teams spread across five conferences are all going to watch this game eagerly and no matter how much they hate TCU, on January 1st they should all be fans of the Horned Frogs.
BY THE NUMBERS
This game matches two of the more impressive statistical resumes that exist in the BCS games this year and there isn’t a large advantage on either side but where you see the biggest difference is in their respective defensive rankings.
TCU was ranked 3rd against the rush (89.17 yards per game), 1st against the pass (126.25), 1st in pass efficiency defense (93.12 opponent’s quarterback rating), 1st in overall defense (215.42), and first in scoring defense (11.42 points per game).
Wisconsin’s offensive ranks in those five categories are 12th, 74th, 17th, 3rd, and 4th, respectively. This is definitely going to be a strength vs. strength match-up when the Badgers have the ball and that could very well determine who wins this game.
TCU WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have a chip on their shoulder the size of Texas. They have played in one BCS bowl and because of a fake punt by Boise State, they were not able to pull the game out (granted, the game was tied at the time but that was the play that sent the Broncos on their way to victory). On top of that, the president of a university with one of the more prestigious football programs in the country came out and slammed several football programs by name, including TCU’s. If you think that Gary Patterson isn’t using that to motivate his team against the only team to beat Ohio State this year, you are flat out wrong.
The Horned Frogs are a senior laden bunch and that, as much as anything else, works greatly in their favor in this game. They also played in a BCS bowl just a year ago while the Badgers haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since they beat UCLA and Stanford in back to back years in 1999 and 2000.
TCU was outstanding on offense (8th in rushing, 9th in total offense, 4th in scoring offense) and was even better on defense (see defensive rankings above). They allowed 10 or fewer points in 8 of their 12 games this year and allowed more than 24 just once.
Their special teams are also quite good as they ranked 5th in both punt return average and kick return average. If this game turns into a shootout, it could very much go either way. If it turns into a field position defensive struggle, I think that the advantage is definitely in TCU’s favor.
KEY STAT: You want more evidence of how their experience has shown this season? As a team they have allowed only 9 sacks and have thrown just 6 interceptions all season.
WISCONSIN WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They cannot be stopped on offense. 6 times this year they have scored more than 40 points and in three of those games, they topped 70. They did have a close call against a 6-6 Arizona State team (at home, no less) two weeks before suffering their only defeat against Michigan State but since then, only Iowa has played within 13 points of the Badgers.
Offensively, they are led by the three headed monster of James White, John Clay, and Montee Ball who have combined to rush for 2,829 yards (with a 6.1 yard per carry average) and 44 touchdowns. That sort of ridiculous production has led to Scott Tolzien having a fantastic year, despite only throwing the ball about 20 times per game. His passer rating of 169.8 ranks 4th nationally and he has been consistent this year, not prone to too many up and down performances.
Defensively, the Badgers haven’t been nearly as good and that unit is most critical to their success against Andy Dalton and TCU. They ranked just 49th in pass efficiency defense and part of that can be explained by the fact that given their enormous leads in several games, their opponents will have been throwing the ball all over the field in an attempt to keep up with Wisconsin. It still means, however, that their pass defense is suspect. They also ranked 29th in scoring defense and did surrender 20 or more points 7 times, including 30 to Iowa and 34 to Michigan State in their one loss.
KEY STAT: Wisconsin ranked 3rd this year in turnover margin at +1.17 per game.
THE VERDICT
I went with TCU a year ago and they let me down. They won’t do it to me again.
In short, their defense is too good. I know that their numbers have been inflated slightly by playing against the Mountain West Conference but even if you could adjust for the competition that they are playing, they still have an elite, senior heavy defense. Their defensive unit has 10 seniors and 6 of them played in every game this year.
On the other side of the ball, four of their five offensive lineman are seniors and the fifth is a junior and most importantly, Andy Dalton is a senior wanting put an exclamation point on a career that so far has a 41-8 record.
Most of all though, this is one of the few real shots that a team from a non-BCS conference will have to go toe to toe with a top five team from a BCS conference on a neutral field and the Horned Frogs will be ready.
I think that TCU will come out of the gate and hit Wisconsin in the mouth in the first quarter before settling down to a defensive, field position battle similar to the way Utah beat Alabama two years ago.
TCU 28, WISCONSIN 21
This is my third year writing previews for the BCS games and so far my record is dead even at 5-5. Two years ago I managed to get four of the five games right, missing out on a perfect BCS season because Alabama decided to only play three quarters instead of four against Utah. Last year was the exact opposite as Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, TCU, and Oregon all disappointed me. The one constant is that I have correctly picked both national champions so if you feel like placing a wager…
So we start off our BCS conversation in Pasadena, California, with the Rose Bowl.
In my opinion this game this year could be called the Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Bowl. In the 2011 Rose Bowl Game provided by Vizio, played January 1st at 5:00 Eastern Standard Time on ESPN, the Texas Christian Horned Frogs will square off against the Wisconsin Badgers. While the Badgers haven’t had anything to do with the recent controversy surround Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee’s comments, they couldn’t help but be dragged into the mix and the reason is simple; they beat Ohio State. On October 16th, Ohio State came into Camp Randall as the #1 team in the country and left with their first loss. If TCU managed to beat Wisconsin, it will prolong the embarrassment for Gee even though he has already retracted his absurd comments.
What is at stake for TCU? Everything. This is, in my opinion, the very rare instance where they have everything to win and everything to lose at the same time. If they lose, people will say that they can’t compete at this level and it will set back the cause of the TCU’s and Utah’s and Boise State’s by several years. If they can pull this game out, then they can say they beat a very good team from a BCS conference (not Pittsburgh or UConn or whoever gets the nod from the Big East) in a neutral site where the BCS conference member has very few excuses to use about why they lost. The fates of 55 teams spread across five conferences are all going to watch this game eagerly and no matter how much they hate TCU, on January 1st they should all be fans of the Horned Frogs.
BY THE NUMBERS
This game matches two of the more impressive statistical resumes that exist in the BCS games this year and there isn’t a large advantage on either side but where you see the biggest difference is in their respective defensive rankings.
TCU was ranked 3rd against the rush (89.17 yards per game), 1st against the pass (126.25), 1st in pass efficiency defense (93.12 opponent’s quarterback rating), 1st in overall defense (215.42), and first in scoring defense (11.42 points per game).
Wisconsin’s offensive ranks in those five categories are 12th, 74th, 17th, 3rd, and 4th, respectively. This is definitely going to be a strength vs. strength match-up when the Badgers have the ball and that could very well determine who wins this game.
TCU WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have a chip on their shoulder the size of Texas. They have played in one BCS bowl and because of a fake punt by Boise State, they were not able to pull the game out (granted, the game was tied at the time but that was the play that sent the Broncos on their way to victory). On top of that, the president of a university with one of the more prestigious football programs in the country came out and slammed several football programs by name, including TCU’s. If you think that Gary Patterson isn’t using that to motivate his team against the only team to beat Ohio State this year, you are flat out wrong.
The Horned Frogs are a senior laden bunch and that, as much as anything else, works greatly in their favor in this game. They also played in a BCS bowl just a year ago while the Badgers haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since they beat UCLA and Stanford in back to back years in 1999 and 2000.
TCU was outstanding on offense (8th in rushing, 9th in total offense, 4th in scoring offense) and was even better on defense (see defensive rankings above). They allowed 10 or fewer points in 8 of their 12 games this year and allowed more than 24 just once.
Their special teams are also quite good as they ranked 5th in both punt return average and kick return average. If this game turns into a shootout, it could very much go either way. If it turns into a field position defensive struggle, I think that the advantage is definitely in TCU’s favor.
KEY STAT: You want more evidence of how their experience has shown this season? As a team they have allowed only 9 sacks and have thrown just 6 interceptions all season.
WISCONSIN WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They cannot be stopped on offense. 6 times this year they have scored more than 40 points and in three of those games, they topped 70. They did have a close call against a 6-6 Arizona State team (at home, no less) two weeks before suffering their only defeat against Michigan State but since then, only Iowa has played within 13 points of the Badgers.
Offensively, they are led by the three headed monster of James White, John Clay, and Montee Ball who have combined to rush for 2,829 yards (with a 6.1 yard per carry average) and 44 touchdowns. That sort of ridiculous production has led to Scott Tolzien having a fantastic year, despite only throwing the ball about 20 times per game. His passer rating of 169.8 ranks 4th nationally and he has been consistent this year, not prone to too many up and down performances.
Defensively, the Badgers haven’t been nearly as good and that unit is most critical to their success against Andy Dalton and TCU. They ranked just 49th in pass efficiency defense and part of that can be explained by the fact that given their enormous leads in several games, their opponents will have been throwing the ball all over the field in an attempt to keep up with Wisconsin. It still means, however, that their pass defense is suspect. They also ranked 29th in scoring defense and did surrender 20 or more points 7 times, including 30 to Iowa and 34 to Michigan State in their one loss.
KEY STAT: Wisconsin ranked 3rd this year in turnover margin at +1.17 per game.
THE VERDICT
I went with TCU a year ago and they let me down. They won’t do it to me again.
In short, their defense is too good. I know that their numbers have been inflated slightly by playing against the Mountain West Conference but even if you could adjust for the competition that they are playing, they still have an elite, senior heavy defense. Their defensive unit has 10 seniors and 6 of them played in every game this year.
On the other side of the ball, four of their five offensive lineman are seniors and the fifth is a junior and most importantly, Andy Dalton is a senior wanting put an exclamation point on a career that so far has a 41-8 record.
Most of all though, this is one of the few real shots that a team from a non-BCS conference will have to go toe to toe with a top five team from a BCS conference on a neutral field and the Horned Frogs will be ready.
I think that TCU will come out of the gate and hit Wisconsin in the mouth in the first quarter before settling down to a defensive, field position battle similar to the way Utah beat Alabama two years ago.
TCU 28, WISCONSIN 21
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Memories of the Decade - College Football Edition
This decade started with Bobby Bowden coaching in his second of three straight appearances in the BCS National Championship Game and ended with Bowden spiking the Seminoles’ Spear into the turf at the Gator Bowl right before he coached the last game of his illustrious career. The past ten years have given us everything from old-fashioned (Ohio State old school football under Jim Tressel) to the new (spread offense under the direction of Urban Meyer). For the first time in BCS history, we saw a small school play in one of the biggest bowl games of the year and then later, we saw two of the four at-large choices come from the Mountain West and Western Athletic Conferences.
Reading through the series of articles on espn.com about the “everything” of the decade (player, coach program, game, etc.) I’ve decided to make a list of my favorite memories from the past ten years of college football to be followed by my memories of the decade from the National Football League and then Major League Baseball.
Before I begin, however, I must put forth a disclaimer. I was born and raised in northwestern Washington and my first memory of college football was watching the Huskies play in three straight Rose Bowls from 1991-1993 when I was just 6 years old. Ever since I have been a big fan of the Washington Huskies in specific and the Pac-10 in general.
Lastly, there isn’t really an order to these so try not to read too much into why one game was before another.
Now, on to the memories…
GAMES
September 19, 2009
Washington 16, #3 USC 13
The Huskies have a long and storied history which includes 656 wins, 15 conference titles, 20 consensus All-Americans, and 4 claimed national championships. They started the decade (more or less) with a 34-24 victory over Purdue in the Rose Bowl and that 2000-2001 season saw them finish 3rd in the polls. The program slowly slid downhill over the course of the decade, reaching rock bottom December 6th of 2008. They lost 48-7 to California to finish the season 0-12. In virtually every number, offensive, defensive, and special teams, they ranked lower than 100.
To open the 2009 season, they lost their fifteenth straight game to LSU 31-23 but they fought hard and it gave the team a lot of hope for the future of Huskies football. The next week, they broke the streak with a 42-23 win over Idaho and then they had a match-up with #3 USC in Seattle. For all of you Trojans fans out there, there are plenty of reasons why they were not as competitive in this game as they should have been. Their starting quarterback was out, several of their defensive backs were injured, and they were coming off of an emotional win over the Buckeyes in Columbus. Regardless of all of that, the Huskies got the ball back with 4:01 remaining in the game and Jake Locker took the Huskies 63 yards in 10 plays, culminating with Erik Folk kicking a 22 yard field goal with 3 seconds remaining. Huskies 16, Trojans 13.
Washington football is on its long way back.
January 5, 2005
#1 USC 55, #2 Oklahoma 19
In 2004 the Sooners were #2 from wire to wire and the Trojans were #1 from wire to wire and from the beginning of the season, they seemed destined to collide in Miami. Both teams had come close to a BCS championship the year before when USC had been left out by the BCS formula and Oklahoma had been shut down by Nick Saban’s defense in the title game. The game featured two former Heisman trophy winners (quarterbacks Jason White for OU and Matt Leinart for USC) and four of the five Heisman finalists (Leinart, White, OU running back Adrian Peterson, and USC running back Reggie Bush).
Everyone knew that it was going to be one of the all-time great games featuring some of the best players in the history of college football and two of the better teams in college football history. Instead, it was a complete and utter beat down. It was 38-10 at halftime and if it wasn’t for 9 late points by the Sooners in garbage time, the final score might have been 55-10. The reason that this game stuck out to me is because it was a very similar Oklahoma team to the year before and a very similar USC team to the year before when many thought the Trojans should have replaced the Sooners in the Sugar Bowl against LSU. It cemented USC’s place as one of the best teams of the decade, if not ever.
January 4, 2006
#2 Texas 41, #1 USC 38
Since the Associated Press started awarding a national championship in 1936, there have been ten instances where a team has won back-to-back national championships. They are:
Minnesota 1940-1941
Army 1944-1945
Notre Dame 1946-1947
Oklahoma 1955-1956
Alabama 1964-1965
Nebraska 1970-1971
Oklahoma 1974-1975
Alabama 1978-1979
Nebraska 1994-1995
USC 2003-2004
Not one time, however, not once, has a team won three straight AP National Championships. When USC played in the Rose Bowl against Texas, they had a chance to win their 35th straight game and their third straight AP National Title. The former is important because even with several players departing to the NFL after the season, it would have put them within range of Oklahoma’s record winning streak (47 games).
On the other side, the Longhorns came into the game having won 19 straight games, including a thrilling 38-37 win over Michigan in the Rose Bowl the year before. They were definitely the underdogs and one of the storylines was whether or not they would be able to get up to the level they needed to play at to beat USC after having won the Big 12 Championship, finally overcoming the stranglehold that Oklahoma had over the South Division in the first half of the decade.
The result was an instant classic that propelled Vince Young into the NFL on a video game type game (267 passing yards, 200 rushing yards) but I also remember this game for another reason. This game directly led to me despising (and no, I’m not understating that) the prevent defense. I don’t mean to undermine Young’s unbelievable comeback in this game but he could not have done it without the help of the USC defense. With the score 38-26 and 6:42 remaining in the game, it almost seemed as if the Trojans thought the game was over and they were already assured of their place in history. They dropped back into deep coverage and allowed the Longhorns to move down the field and score in just 2:39 to make the score 38-33. Then, after a failed 4th down conversion, the Longhorns again went on to a touchdown, taking just 1:50 to score the winning touchdown.
Countless times in college football and in the NFL, teams sit on a lead and drop players back in coverage, deathly afraid of giving up a big touchdown pass to allow the trailing team to get back in the game. The problem is that it allows the trailing team to put a drive together and get chunks of yards with relatively little time coming off the clock, allowing that team to get into a rhythm and become more efficient on offense. Then, when the leading team actually needs to come up and make a key stop, they can’t. Now, this doesn’t always work out that well but when the two teams are evenly matched, you absolutely cannot give the other team a chance to get some momentum together.
January 3, 2003
#2 Ohio State 31, #1 Miami 24 (2 O.T.)
Coming into the Fiesta Bowl, the Miami Hurricanes had won 34 consecutive games, including the previous year’s national championship. En route to the Fiesta Bowl, the Hurricanes played just two games that were decided by one possession (28-27 over #9 Florida State and 28-21 over Pittsburgh). On the other side, the Buckeyes won 6 of their 13 games by 7 or fewer points.
The game was what a championship game should be. It was close and hard fought and given the two teams, the defensive field-position style of play favored Ohio State.
The turning point of the game was early in the fourth quarter with the Buckeyes leading 17-14. Willis McGahee, who had run for 1,753 yards and 28 touchdowns, ran right and was taken down and out by Ohio State safety Will Allen. Even though the tackle was a clean play, Allen’s helmet hitting right on the side of McGahee’s knee tore three ligaments and changed the question about McGahee’s future from where will he be drafted in the top 10 to will he be drafted at all. Even though Ohio State was leading at the time, there was a big drop-off from McGahee to backup Jarrett Payton. It limited the effectiveness of the Miami offense and played into the hands of the outstanding Ohio State defense.
Still, the game went to overtime and in the second overtime, freshman Maurice Clarett (before he failed to get into the NFL and then was sent to prison for carrying an arsenal in the back of his vehicle) capped off a lackluster day with a 5 yard touchdown run to give the Buckeyes the lead 31-24. The Ohio State defense held and won the BCS National Championship.
First of all, this was a great game and a lot of fun to watch. Secondly, it showed that, at least in college, a good defense can beat any offense. Lastly, it signified the emphatic arrival of one of my favorite coaches in all of football, college or pro, Jim Tressel…
…and of course, his sweater vest.
January 1, 2007
#8 Boise State 43, #10 Oklahoma 42 (OT)
Following a 12-0 regular season for Boise State, they became just the second team not from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, SEC, or Pac-10 to play in a BCS Bowl (after Utah in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl). They were up against one of the so called “blue-bloods” of college football, the Oklahoma Sooners. First of all, a quick side note… This was not the Sooners juggernaut of 2003 or 2004 that played for the national title both years but it was still a 10-2 team that won the Big 12 and had Adrian Peterson back from his broken collarbone of earlier that year.
The big question was whether or not a team like Boise State could hang with a team like Oklahoma but the Broncos put that discussion to rest in the first half. Boise State quarterback Jared Zabransky threw touchdown passes of 49 and 32 yards and Ian Johnson ran for a 7 yard score to give the Broncos a 21-10 halftime lead. Midway through the third quarter Marty Tadman picked off a Paul Thompson pass and returned it 27 yards for another touchdown and a 28-10 Boise State lead.
One aspect of this game that many people overlook is the fact that after taking that 18 point lead, the Broncos got a little bigheaded and allowed the Sooners to get back into the game. Oklahoma slowly chipped away at the lead until they drew even with a 5 yard touchdown pass and then a two point conversion (after two penalties) to make the score 28-28 with 1:26 remaining. Completing the comeback was Marcus Walker who intercepted Zabransky on the first play after the touchdown by Boise state and took it 34 yards for a touchdown and a 35-28 lead.
That is where this game ceased to be just another game and entered its name into the discussion for the best games in college football history. After a pass completion, a sack, and then two incompletions, Boise State faced a 4th and 18 from midfield. Jared Zabransky, Drisan James, and Jerard Robb then executed the perfect hook and ladder play. James ran a hook route and caught the pass from Zabransky about 15 yards downfield. He then took a couple steps towards the middle of the field to draw the defense and then threw a lateral to Robb, who was coming across from the far side of the field. Robb outran the Oklahoma secondary for a touchdown that tied the game and sent it to overtime.
It became clear that Boise State’s time was running out on the first play of overtime when Adrian Peterson took the handoff and went 25 yards virtually untouched for a touchdown and a 42-35 lead. On the ensuing Boise State drive, they faced a 4th and 2 from the Oklahoma 5 yard line when Zabransky went in motion and the snap went to backup wide receiver Vinny Perretta. Instead of running behind the three receivers, he rolled right and threw a touchdown pass to draw them within 1 point, 42-41. Instead of having his tired defense faced the Sooners offense again; Chris Peterson decided to go for it. The result was a Statue of Liberty fake and handoff to Ian Johnson who went into the endzone untouched for a 43-42 victory.
Do I need to tell you why I still remember this game?
DYNASTIES
This decade was marked by one dynasty rolling into another which rolled into another. From 2000-2003, the Miami Hurricanes went 46-4, won all 4 Big East titles, won one national championship, and played for another and on top of that, they added a 34 game winning streak and a 39 game regular season winning streak. I don’t remember as much about this dynasty as the other two that will be mentioned later but if you want to know how good these teams were, just look at who went from one of those teams to the NFL. The other thing that made this team noteworthy in my mind is that they didn’t possess the brash cockiness that previous and subsequent Miami teams were known for. They were the best team in the country; they knew it, you knew it, and there was nothing you could do about it.
In the 10 years from 2000-2009, the Trojans of USC went 102-26 and if you take out their seasons in 2000 (5-7), 2001 (6-6), and 2009 (9-4), they went 82-9 over a 7 year stretch in which they won the Pac-10 title every year. However, for this discussion, we’ll focus on their run near the top of the college football landscape. From 2003-2005, they went 37-2, winning the AP national championship in 2003 and 2004 and then the BCS national championship in 2004. Finally, in 2005, they were 12-0 and were prevented from making even more history by Vince Young and Texas (see above). Still the 2004 team is widely considered to be one of the best single season teams of all time and their roster included 53 players that would go on to play in the NFL.
CONTROVERSIES
There have been many controversies over the brief 12 year history of the BCS but for the purposes of brevity (something I occasionally struggle with) I’m just going to highlight two of them.
In 2003, USC finished the season 11-1, LSU finished 11-1, and Oklahoma finished 12-0. While LSU defeated #5 Georgia 34-13 in the SEC Championship Game, Oklahoma forgot to show up for the Big 12 title game and got blown out by Kansas State 35-7. Despite being ranked #1 in both the Coach’s Poll and the AP Poll, USC was ranked #3 in the BCS and went to the Rose Bowl against Michigan.
USC defeated Michigan 28-14 in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score while LSU defeated Oklahoma 21-14 in a game where the Sooners didn’t appear to belong on the same field as the Tigers.
The other big controversy happened the next year when 5 teams finished the regular season undefeated (USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah, and Boise State). While there wasn’t a ton of noise calling for Utah or Boise State to be in the National Championship Game, Auburn certainly felt they deserved to be there, having gone 12-0 in the SEC. While Auburn struggled to dispatch Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl, USC dominated Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl 55-19, which brought many questions as to whether or not the BCS had gotten it right.
My personal take is that the BCS wasn’t completely wrong either year. In 2003, given that LSU and USC did not play each other, it was perfect for them to share the national championship. The only way it could have been better is if they had played for the title. The following year, I’m not at all convinced that there was anyone who could have beaten USC in that game so it would have been for the honor of being in the national title game and the opportunity to get pasted by USC.
To sum up, it’s been a great decade in college football that has seen relative nobody’s on the national stage stand up and demand attention from the establishment. It has also seen traditional powers struggle at times proving that everybody must endure rebuilding years in a sport where athletes are staying at most 4 years, and more commonly 3 years. The BCS has had more than its share of detractors but it’s hard to say that it hasn’t created its share of thrilling games.
Until next September, we’ll have to dream about the decade that was and the decade that will be in college football.
Reading through the series of articles on espn.com about the “everything” of the decade (player, coach program, game, etc.) I’ve decided to make a list of my favorite memories from the past ten years of college football to be followed by my memories of the decade from the National Football League and then Major League Baseball.
Before I begin, however, I must put forth a disclaimer. I was born and raised in northwestern Washington and my first memory of college football was watching the Huskies play in three straight Rose Bowls from 1991-1993 when I was just 6 years old. Ever since I have been a big fan of the Washington Huskies in specific and the Pac-10 in general.
Lastly, there isn’t really an order to these so try not to read too much into why one game was before another.
Now, on to the memories…
GAMES
September 19, 2009
Washington 16, #3 USC 13
The Huskies have a long and storied history which includes 656 wins, 15 conference titles, 20 consensus All-Americans, and 4 claimed national championships. They started the decade (more or less) with a 34-24 victory over Purdue in the Rose Bowl and that 2000-2001 season saw them finish 3rd in the polls. The program slowly slid downhill over the course of the decade, reaching rock bottom December 6th of 2008. They lost 48-7 to California to finish the season 0-12. In virtually every number, offensive, defensive, and special teams, they ranked lower than 100.
To open the 2009 season, they lost their fifteenth straight game to LSU 31-23 but they fought hard and it gave the team a lot of hope for the future of Huskies football. The next week, they broke the streak with a 42-23 win over Idaho and then they had a match-up with #3 USC in Seattle. For all of you Trojans fans out there, there are plenty of reasons why they were not as competitive in this game as they should have been. Their starting quarterback was out, several of their defensive backs were injured, and they were coming off of an emotional win over the Buckeyes in Columbus. Regardless of all of that, the Huskies got the ball back with 4:01 remaining in the game and Jake Locker took the Huskies 63 yards in 10 plays, culminating with Erik Folk kicking a 22 yard field goal with 3 seconds remaining. Huskies 16, Trojans 13.
Washington football is on its long way back.
January 5, 2005
#1 USC 55, #2 Oklahoma 19
In 2004 the Sooners were #2 from wire to wire and the Trojans were #1 from wire to wire and from the beginning of the season, they seemed destined to collide in Miami. Both teams had come close to a BCS championship the year before when USC had been left out by the BCS formula and Oklahoma had been shut down by Nick Saban’s defense in the title game. The game featured two former Heisman trophy winners (quarterbacks Jason White for OU and Matt Leinart for USC) and four of the five Heisman finalists (Leinart, White, OU running back Adrian Peterson, and USC running back Reggie Bush).
Everyone knew that it was going to be one of the all-time great games featuring some of the best players in the history of college football and two of the better teams in college football history. Instead, it was a complete and utter beat down. It was 38-10 at halftime and if it wasn’t for 9 late points by the Sooners in garbage time, the final score might have been 55-10. The reason that this game stuck out to me is because it was a very similar Oklahoma team to the year before and a very similar USC team to the year before when many thought the Trojans should have replaced the Sooners in the Sugar Bowl against LSU. It cemented USC’s place as one of the best teams of the decade, if not ever.
January 4, 2006
#2 Texas 41, #1 USC 38
Since the Associated Press started awarding a national championship in 1936, there have been ten instances where a team has won back-to-back national championships. They are:
Minnesota 1940-1941
Army 1944-1945
Notre Dame 1946-1947
Oklahoma 1955-1956
Alabama 1964-1965
Nebraska 1970-1971
Oklahoma 1974-1975
Alabama 1978-1979
Nebraska 1994-1995
USC 2003-2004
Not one time, however, not once, has a team won three straight AP National Championships. When USC played in the Rose Bowl against Texas, they had a chance to win their 35th straight game and their third straight AP National Title. The former is important because even with several players departing to the NFL after the season, it would have put them within range of Oklahoma’s record winning streak (47 games).
On the other side, the Longhorns came into the game having won 19 straight games, including a thrilling 38-37 win over Michigan in the Rose Bowl the year before. They were definitely the underdogs and one of the storylines was whether or not they would be able to get up to the level they needed to play at to beat USC after having won the Big 12 Championship, finally overcoming the stranglehold that Oklahoma had over the South Division in the first half of the decade.
The result was an instant classic that propelled Vince Young into the NFL on a video game type game (267 passing yards, 200 rushing yards) but I also remember this game for another reason. This game directly led to me despising (and no, I’m not understating that) the prevent defense. I don’t mean to undermine Young’s unbelievable comeback in this game but he could not have done it without the help of the USC defense. With the score 38-26 and 6:42 remaining in the game, it almost seemed as if the Trojans thought the game was over and they were already assured of their place in history. They dropped back into deep coverage and allowed the Longhorns to move down the field and score in just 2:39 to make the score 38-33. Then, after a failed 4th down conversion, the Longhorns again went on to a touchdown, taking just 1:50 to score the winning touchdown.
Countless times in college football and in the NFL, teams sit on a lead and drop players back in coverage, deathly afraid of giving up a big touchdown pass to allow the trailing team to get back in the game. The problem is that it allows the trailing team to put a drive together and get chunks of yards with relatively little time coming off the clock, allowing that team to get into a rhythm and become more efficient on offense. Then, when the leading team actually needs to come up and make a key stop, they can’t. Now, this doesn’t always work out that well but when the two teams are evenly matched, you absolutely cannot give the other team a chance to get some momentum together.
January 3, 2003
#2 Ohio State 31, #1 Miami 24 (2 O.T.)
Coming into the Fiesta Bowl, the Miami Hurricanes had won 34 consecutive games, including the previous year’s national championship. En route to the Fiesta Bowl, the Hurricanes played just two games that were decided by one possession (28-27 over #9 Florida State and 28-21 over Pittsburgh). On the other side, the Buckeyes won 6 of their 13 games by 7 or fewer points.
The game was what a championship game should be. It was close and hard fought and given the two teams, the defensive field-position style of play favored Ohio State.
The turning point of the game was early in the fourth quarter with the Buckeyes leading 17-14. Willis McGahee, who had run for 1,753 yards and 28 touchdowns, ran right and was taken down and out by Ohio State safety Will Allen. Even though the tackle was a clean play, Allen’s helmet hitting right on the side of McGahee’s knee tore three ligaments and changed the question about McGahee’s future from where will he be drafted in the top 10 to will he be drafted at all. Even though Ohio State was leading at the time, there was a big drop-off from McGahee to backup Jarrett Payton. It limited the effectiveness of the Miami offense and played into the hands of the outstanding Ohio State defense.
Still, the game went to overtime and in the second overtime, freshman Maurice Clarett (before he failed to get into the NFL and then was sent to prison for carrying an arsenal in the back of his vehicle) capped off a lackluster day with a 5 yard touchdown run to give the Buckeyes the lead 31-24. The Ohio State defense held and won the BCS National Championship.
First of all, this was a great game and a lot of fun to watch. Secondly, it showed that, at least in college, a good defense can beat any offense. Lastly, it signified the emphatic arrival of one of my favorite coaches in all of football, college or pro, Jim Tressel…
…and of course, his sweater vest.
January 1, 2007
#8 Boise State 43, #10 Oklahoma 42 (OT)
Following a 12-0 regular season for Boise State, they became just the second team not from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, SEC, or Pac-10 to play in a BCS Bowl (after Utah in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl). They were up against one of the so called “blue-bloods” of college football, the Oklahoma Sooners. First of all, a quick side note… This was not the Sooners juggernaut of 2003 or 2004 that played for the national title both years but it was still a 10-2 team that won the Big 12 and had Adrian Peterson back from his broken collarbone of earlier that year.
The big question was whether or not a team like Boise State could hang with a team like Oklahoma but the Broncos put that discussion to rest in the first half. Boise State quarterback Jared Zabransky threw touchdown passes of 49 and 32 yards and Ian Johnson ran for a 7 yard score to give the Broncos a 21-10 halftime lead. Midway through the third quarter Marty Tadman picked off a Paul Thompson pass and returned it 27 yards for another touchdown and a 28-10 Boise State lead.
One aspect of this game that many people overlook is the fact that after taking that 18 point lead, the Broncos got a little bigheaded and allowed the Sooners to get back into the game. Oklahoma slowly chipped away at the lead until they drew even with a 5 yard touchdown pass and then a two point conversion (after two penalties) to make the score 28-28 with 1:26 remaining. Completing the comeback was Marcus Walker who intercepted Zabransky on the first play after the touchdown by Boise state and took it 34 yards for a touchdown and a 35-28 lead.
That is where this game ceased to be just another game and entered its name into the discussion for the best games in college football history. After a pass completion, a sack, and then two incompletions, Boise State faced a 4th and 18 from midfield. Jared Zabransky, Drisan James, and Jerard Robb then executed the perfect hook and ladder play. James ran a hook route and caught the pass from Zabransky about 15 yards downfield. He then took a couple steps towards the middle of the field to draw the defense and then threw a lateral to Robb, who was coming across from the far side of the field. Robb outran the Oklahoma secondary for a touchdown that tied the game and sent it to overtime.
It became clear that Boise State’s time was running out on the first play of overtime when Adrian Peterson took the handoff and went 25 yards virtually untouched for a touchdown and a 42-35 lead. On the ensuing Boise State drive, they faced a 4th and 2 from the Oklahoma 5 yard line when Zabransky went in motion and the snap went to backup wide receiver Vinny Perretta. Instead of running behind the three receivers, he rolled right and threw a touchdown pass to draw them within 1 point, 42-41. Instead of having his tired defense faced the Sooners offense again; Chris Peterson decided to go for it. The result was a Statue of Liberty fake and handoff to Ian Johnson who went into the endzone untouched for a 43-42 victory.
Do I need to tell you why I still remember this game?
DYNASTIES
This decade was marked by one dynasty rolling into another which rolled into another. From 2000-2003, the Miami Hurricanes went 46-4, won all 4 Big East titles, won one national championship, and played for another and on top of that, they added a 34 game winning streak and a 39 game regular season winning streak. I don’t remember as much about this dynasty as the other two that will be mentioned later but if you want to know how good these teams were, just look at who went from one of those teams to the NFL. The other thing that made this team noteworthy in my mind is that they didn’t possess the brash cockiness that previous and subsequent Miami teams were known for. They were the best team in the country; they knew it, you knew it, and there was nothing you could do about it.
In the 10 years from 2000-2009, the Trojans of USC went 102-26 and if you take out their seasons in 2000 (5-7), 2001 (6-6), and 2009 (9-4), they went 82-9 over a 7 year stretch in which they won the Pac-10 title every year. However, for this discussion, we’ll focus on their run near the top of the college football landscape. From 2003-2005, they went 37-2, winning the AP national championship in 2003 and 2004 and then the BCS national championship in 2004. Finally, in 2005, they were 12-0 and were prevented from making even more history by Vince Young and Texas (see above). Still the 2004 team is widely considered to be one of the best single season teams of all time and their roster included 53 players that would go on to play in the NFL.
CONTROVERSIES
There have been many controversies over the brief 12 year history of the BCS but for the purposes of brevity (something I occasionally struggle with) I’m just going to highlight two of them.
In 2003, USC finished the season 11-1, LSU finished 11-1, and Oklahoma finished 12-0. While LSU defeated #5 Georgia 34-13 in the SEC Championship Game, Oklahoma forgot to show up for the Big 12 title game and got blown out by Kansas State 35-7. Despite being ranked #1 in both the Coach’s Poll and the AP Poll, USC was ranked #3 in the BCS and went to the Rose Bowl against Michigan.
USC defeated Michigan 28-14 in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score while LSU defeated Oklahoma 21-14 in a game where the Sooners didn’t appear to belong on the same field as the Tigers.
The other big controversy happened the next year when 5 teams finished the regular season undefeated (USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah, and Boise State). While there wasn’t a ton of noise calling for Utah or Boise State to be in the National Championship Game, Auburn certainly felt they deserved to be there, having gone 12-0 in the SEC. While Auburn struggled to dispatch Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl, USC dominated Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl 55-19, which brought many questions as to whether or not the BCS had gotten it right.
My personal take is that the BCS wasn’t completely wrong either year. In 2003, given that LSU and USC did not play each other, it was perfect for them to share the national championship. The only way it could have been better is if they had played for the title. The following year, I’m not at all convinced that there was anyone who could have beaten USC in that game so it would have been for the honor of being in the national title game and the opportunity to get pasted by USC.
To sum up, it’s been a great decade in college football that has seen relative nobody’s on the national stage stand up and demand attention from the establishment. It has also seen traditional powers struggle at times proving that everybody must endure rebuilding years in a sport where athletes are staying at most 4 years, and more commonly 3 years. The BCS has had more than its share of detractors but it’s hard to say that it hasn’t created its share of thrilling games.
Until next September, we’ll have to dream about the decade that was and the decade that will be in college football.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
BCS Preview: Rose Bowl
The Bowl Championship Series this year starts with the granddaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl. This year’s edition matches the Big Ten Champion, the Ohio State Buckeyes, against the Pac-10 Champion, the Oregon Ducks. This game features two drastically contrasting styles of play and it is in those contrasts that this game may very well be decided.
By the Numbers
Ohio State under Jim Tressel relies on defense and special teams with just enough offense. While they scored 30 or more points 7 times, they broke 40 just once and their average (29.25) ranked 47th in the country. The only two games in which they failed to score 20, they lost. On the flipside of the coin, they allowed more than 20 points just three times and they won two of those games. Behind the strength of their 5th ranked defense, they allowed just 12.2 points per game.
The Ducks, on the other hand, scored 40 or more points 7 times and scored at least 30 in another 3 games. They like to move the ball up and down the field and because of that, they ranked very well in offense (6th in rushing, 25th in total offense), and relatively poorly on the defensive side of the ball. They were 38th against the run, 37th against the pass, and 32nd overall, allowing 23.6 points per game. Four times the Ducks allowed 30 or more points and Heisman Finalist Toby Gerhart and Stanford gashed the Oregon defense for 254 rushing yards (223 by Gerhart), 251 passing yards, and 51 points.
Why the Buckeyes Will Win
Jim Tressel is one of the best coaches in America. Ohio State boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Terrelle Pryor is one of the premier playmakers at the quarterback position, although still an unfinished product as a sophomore. One of their defensive strengths (against the run) matches up against Oregon’s offensive strength (running the ball). Lastly, the Buckeyes were 4th in the country in turnover margin.
Why the Ducks Will Win
It has been quite a while since Ohio State won a big game and even longer since they won a BCS Bowl. On the other side, the last time Oregon played in a BCS game, they beat up Colorado in the 2002 Rose Bowl 38-16. They fashioned themselves as a top-10 team and a national title contender earlier this year before they lost badly to Boise State (19-8) and then later to Stanford (51-42). All of this means they will have a chip on their shoulder and will come out gunning in an attempt to finish the season with some momentum and build towards another title run next year. LaMichael James stepped in for LaGarrette Blount after the Boise State game and rushed for 1,476 yards and 14 touchdowns but the key to this game for Oregon will be Jeremiah Masoli. The junior had a passer rating of 133.7 and did show that he could throw the ball when called upon (334 yards against Stanford) but the key will be his running ability. He rushed for 50 or more yards 7 times and if he is able to take pressure off of LaMichael James, the Ducks could fly to victory.
The Verdict
This game features a very tough match-up for the Buckeyes. They are going against a defense that I would categorize as “above average” to “good”. The Buckeyes need to stay disciplined and within their game plan. There is definitely the potential to look at the Ducks defense and their body of work and say “we can outscore them”. The problem is, the strength of the Ducks is their offense. The more you score, the more you give the ball to that high powered offense. Ohio State cannot get into a shootout or they will find themselves trailing and a ball control offense is not conducive to making comebacks. If they can keep the score in the teens or twenties, the Buckeyes will win. Anything past that and Oregon has a distinct advantage.
Oregon 31, Ohio State 21
By the Numbers
Ohio State under Jim Tressel relies on defense and special teams with just enough offense. While they scored 30 or more points 7 times, they broke 40 just once and their average (29.25) ranked 47th in the country. The only two games in which they failed to score 20, they lost. On the flipside of the coin, they allowed more than 20 points just three times and they won two of those games. Behind the strength of their 5th ranked defense, they allowed just 12.2 points per game.
The Ducks, on the other hand, scored 40 or more points 7 times and scored at least 30 in another 3 games. They like to move the ball up and down the field and because of that, they ranked very well in offense (6th in rushing, 25th in total offense), and relatively poorly on the defensive side of the ball. They were 38th against the run, 37th against the pass, and 32nd overall, allowing 23.6 points per game. Four times the Ducks allowed 30 or more points and Heisman Finalist Toby Gerhart and Stanford gashed the Oregon defense for 254 rushing yards (223 by Gerhart), 251 passing yards, and 51 points.
Why the Buckeyes Will Win
Jim Tressel is one of the best coaches in America. Ohio State boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Terrelle Pryor is one of the premier playmakers at the quarterback position, although still an unfinished product as a sophomore. One of their defensive strengths (against the run) matches up against Oregon’s offensive strength (running the ball). Lastly, the Buckeyes were 4th in the country in turnover margin.
Why the Ducks Will Win
It has been quite a while since Ohio State won a big game and even longer since they won a BCS Bowl. On the other side, the last time Oregon played in a BCS game, they beat up Colorado in the 2002 Rose Bowl 38-16. They fashioned themselves as a top-10 team and a national title contender earlier this year before they lost badly to Boise State (19-8) and then later to Stanford (51-42). All of this means they will have a chip on their shoulder and will come out gunning in an attempt to finish the season with some momentum and build towards another title run next year. LaMichael James stepped in for LaGarrette Blount after the Boise State game and rushed for 1,476 yards and 14 touchdowns but the key to this game for Oregon will be Jeremiah Masoli. The junior had a passer rating of 133.7 and did show that he could throw the ball when called upon (334 yards against Stanford) but the key will be his running ability. He rushed for 50 or more yards 7 times and if he is able to take pressure off of LaMichael James, the Ducks could fly to victory.
The Verdict
This game features a very tough match-up for the Buckeyes. They are going against a defense that I would categorize as “above average” to “good”. The Buckeyes need to stay disciplined and within their game plan. There is definitely the potential to look at the Ducks defense and their body of work and say “we can outscore them”. The problem is, the strength of the Ducks is their offense. The more you score, the more you give the ball to that high powered offense. Ohio State cannot get into a shootout or they will find themselves trailing and a ball control offense is not conducive to making comebacks. If they can keep the score in the teens or twenties, the Buckeyes will win. Anything past that and Oregon has a distinct advantage.
Oregon 31, Ohio State 21
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