Yet another intriguing match-up from our friends at the BCS headquarters… with the possible exception of the Fiesta Bowl, this BCS season seems to be full of what could turn out to be epic games. Unfortunately, not very many BCS match-ups have lived up to the hype going into the games. Last year was the first season since the implementation of the BCS that all of the highest ranked teams played in BCS bowls (top ten starting in January 2007 and top eight before that) and all we got out of those five top 10 match-ups was two yawners, a mostly one-sided affair, an enjoyable defensive struggle that was turned on a fake punt, and a thoroughly anti-climactic championship game that only turned out to be so because Colt McCoy injured his shoulder early in the game.
Another thing that happened last year is Jim Tressel opened up his playbook and confounded a lot of people, including myself. The question now is can he do it again? Pundits have repeated time and time again that Ohio State hasn’t beaten an SEC team in a bowl game since… can you remember the last time they beat an SEC team? Was Woody Hayes still coaching the Buckeyes back then?
On the flipside of this match-up are the Razorbacks of Arkansas that haven’t been a factor in college football in years. They are led by their own NFL prospect of a quarterback in Ryan Mallett who ended up ranked 3rd nationally in passing efficiency.
BY THE NUMBERS
Ryan Mallett helps make up for a lot of deficiencies that the Razorbacks have. Their running game is average (65th nationally), their rush defense is a little below average (69th), their scoring defense is slightly better than average (43rd), and their special teams take turns between great and terrible. They ranked 4th nationally in punt return average, just 56th in net punting, and 102nd in kick return average.
It should be noted that the Razorbacks did play a very difficult schedule in the SEC but many of the rankings listed above usually don’t add up to a top ten BCS caliber team unless they do something very very well and what the Razorbacks can do is throw the ball.
The defense that Mallett is going to be throwing against may be one of the stingiest units in the country… again. I know, Ohio State has a great defense… what else is new? The Buckeyes ranked 4th against the rush, 4th against the pass, 2nd overall in yardage allowed per game, and 3rd in points allowed per game. They allowed opposing quarterbacks a rating of just 96.88 (4th best in the country), more than 70 points lower Mallett’s rating.
Given that Arkansas’ offense and Ohio State’s defense are clearly their strengths, this game will most likely hinge on the other match-up, Arkansas’ defense against Ohio State’s offense, which brings us back to Jim Tressel’s play calling again.
If Tressel calls the game like he did last year in the Rose Bowl against Oregon, the Razorbacks will most likely not be too competitive in this game.
THE RAZORBACKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will clam up and go back to his old conservative play-calling days. To be brutally honest, for as good as Mallett has been this year, that is the only way that I can see Arkansas having a realistic shot at winning this game. This is not the Florida team or the LSU team that blew the Buckeyes out of the national title games in the past few years.
Having said that, this team did play tough against Alabama before losing 24-20 and took a lead against Auburn in the fourth quarter before giving up four straight touchdowns and losing by 22. They did put forth 43 points against the #1 team in the country but it needs to be pointed out that that same #1 team is ranked 105th in pass defense. Ohio State is ranked 4th.
KEY STAT: Ryan Mallett averaged 9.87 yards per attempt, 3rd best in the country behind Kellen Moore (10.16) and Cam Newton (10.52).
THE BUCKEYES WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will continue to trust Terrelle Pryor. The junior completed 66% of his passes for a QB rating of 158.0 and rushed for 639 yards along the way. If he is making plays and doing his best Cam Newton imitation, there is little that any team in the country can do to keep up with the Buckeyes. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback, the only thing that can hold back the Buckeyes is Jim Tressel. He is the perfect ambassador for a football program and he is an outstanding defensive coach, but sometimes he holds his team back offensively.
While the Buckeyes were fantastic on defense, they were underrated on offense. They ranked 18th in total offense and 11th in scoring offense, outgaining their opponents by an astounding 198 yards per game and outscoring their opponents by 26 points per game.
On the offchance that their offense stalls and the game turns into a field position battle, the game will favor the Buckeyes even more, since it sometimes seems like Jim Tressel loves nothing more than to get a lead and play defensive, field position football (Ohio State ranked in the top quarter in both punt and kickoff returns this year).
KEY STAT: The Buckeyes ranked 3rd in kickoff return average, 3rd in turnover margin, and 14th in rushing offense, all keys to a ball control, field position victory.
THE VERDICT
Arkansas will be playing much closer to home than Ohio State when they meet in the Superdome in New Orleans but Ohio State has never had trouble filling seats, no matter where in the country they are playing.
Arkansas’ defense hasn’t played particularly well against the better offenses that they have faced this year, culminating with their disastrous fourth quarter against Auburn. Terrelle Pryor isn’t Cam Newton, but he’s also a lot better than most of the other quarterbacks that the Razorbacks have faced this year.
Ohio State has shown some vulnerability to the run this year but not too much to the pass and that is the greatest challenge that they will face from Arkansas.
Stingy turnover forcing defense + ball control offense = Buckeye victory
Ohio State 24, Arkansas 17
Showing posts with label Terrelle Pryor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Terrelle Pryor. Show all posts
Friday, December 17, 2010
Saturday, September 11, 2010
#2 Ohio State 36, #12 Miami 24
THE SCORE
#2 OHIO STATE 36, #12 MIAMI (FL) 24
THE STAR
Jim Tressel. With one exception, Ohio State’s coach got everything he wanted from a typical conservative game plan. Kicking, defense, special teams, and a quarterback who can manage the game.
Senior kicker Devin Barclay connected on 5-6 field goal tries (and it should have been all six since the one miss was from 32 yards) and the kickoff team performed well after their one blunder. Defensively, the Buckeyes asserted themselves, holding Jacory Harris to 23-39 passing and intercepting him four times. Admittedly, not all of the blame belongs on Harris’ shoulders. On one of the interceptions, it appeared that the receiver was lining up the defensive back for a run block when the ball went right over his shoulder into the hands of the guy he was going to block.
Terrelle Pryor appears to be much the same quarterback that lit up the Pasadena night last January in the Rose Bowl. While he only completed 12-27 passes, he threw for 233 yards and a touchdown without any turnovers. Some of his passes were offline but some of them were nothing short of stupendous and the only thing standing between him and being a Heisman finalist is consistency. One thing I saw in him today was that not too many of his passes were near interceptions. There were some but most of his passes fell into the category of “if my guy doesn’t catch it, nobody will”.
On top of his decent passing day, Pryor ran the ball 20 times for 113 yards and a touchdown and was by far the most reliable runner for Tressel.
The elephant in the room is special teams. In less than one half of football, the Buckeyes gave up an 88 yard kickoff return and a 79 yard punt return for two of the three touchdowns Miami managed. Without those, the score might have looked more like the 36-10 margin that it should have been.
BY THE NUMBERS
Ohio State outgained Miami 414-346, 233-232 through the air (let’s call that one a tie) and 181-114 on the ground. The Hurricanes committed 8 penalties for 59 yards while the Buckeyes (in typical Tressel fashion) committed just 2 for 25 yards. The biggest number in the entire box score though is 4. Miami threw four interceptions and Ohio State did not turn the ball over.
THE SPIN
First and foremost, I realize that this game was played in front of more than 100,000 fans, most of who were not pulling for the Hurricanes. Nevertheless, what I saw was two teams that both had the same goal and only one that had a chance to realize that goal.
Ohio State did make some mistakes but overall they played a very solid game. Their defense was excellent and opportunistic, their offense was efficient and just needs a few tweaks that can easily come with more game time this fall, and their special teams has room to improve. This is a team that can go all the way and right now the only thing that I think can hold them back is Jim Tressel’s playcalling. If he opens up his playbook the way he did in the Rose Bowl, look out.
Miami came into this game ranked #12 and leading up to this game it appeared that they wanted to let the world know that they had returned to prominence and that they were seeking revenge for a title game loss that occurred when the current crop of seniors was in 8th grade. On both goals, they fell flat. Their defense played well but had no answer for Terrelle Pryor and allowed too many big plays. Their special teams were solid but allowed a few big kickoff returns, including one where senior kicker Matt Bosher was juked by the Buckeyes return man, nearly fell down, and then recovered and ran him down a few yards later to make the tackle.
Offensively, the Hurricanes struggled with Ohio State’s defense. Even putting the four turnovers aside for a second, they managed to get into the red zone just twice and those two possessions resulted in a missed field goal and an interception that was nearly returned for a touchdown.
I understand that they were playing in a hostile environment against a top tier team. When the newest rankings come out this week, I don’t think they’ll be hurt too much by this loss and I don’t think that Ohio State will benefit too much from this win. The most important thing that I’ll take away from this game is these two teams are on two different levels.
To all you Alabama fans out there:
FEAR THE SWEATER-VEST!
#2 OHIO STATE 36, #12 MIAMI (FL) 24
THE STAR
Jim Tressel. With one exception, Ohio State’s coach got everything he wanted from a typical conservative game plan. Kicking, defense, special teams, and a quarterback who can manage the game.
Senior kicker Devin Barclay connected on 5-6 field goal tries (and it should have been all six since the one miss was from 32 yards) and the kickoff team performed well after their one blunder. Defensively, the Buckeyes asserted themselves, holding Jacory Harris to 23-39 passing and intercepting him four times. Admittedly, not all of the blame belongs on Harris’ shoulders. On one of the interceptions, it appeared that the receiver was lining up the defensive back for a run block when the ball went right over his shoulder into the hands of the guy he was going to block.
Terrelle Pryor appears to be much the same quarterback that lit up the Pasadena night last January in the Rose Bowl. While he only completed 12-27 passes, he threw for 233 yards and a touchdown without any turnovers. Some of his passes were offline but some of them were nothing short of stupendous and the only thing standing between him and being a Heisman finalist is consistency. One thing I saw in him today was that not too many of his passes were near interceptions. There were some but most of his passes fell into the category of “if my guy doesn’t catch it, nobody will”.
On top of his decent passing day, Pryor ran the ball 20 times for 113 yards and a touchdown and was by far the most reliable runner for Tressel.
The elephant in the room is special teams. In less than one half of football, the Buckeyes gave up an 88 yard kickoff return and a 79 yard punt return for two of the three touchdowns Miami managed. Without those, the score might have looked more like the 36-10 margin that it should have been.
BY THE NUMBERS
Ohio State outgained Miami 414-346, 233-232 through the air (let’s call that one a tie) and 181-114 on the ground. The Hurricanes committed 8 penalties for 59 yards while the Buckeyes (in typical Tressel fashion) committed just 2 for 25 yards. The biggest number in the entire box score though is 4. Miami threw four interceptions and Ohio State did not turn the ball over.
THE SPIN
First and foremost, I realize that this game was played in front of more than 100,000 fans, most of who were not pulling for the Hurricanes. Nevertheless, what I saw was two teams that both had the same goal and only one that had a chance to realize that goal.
Ohio State did make some mistakes but overall they played a very solid game. Their defense was excellent and opportunistic, their offense was efficient and just needs a few tweaks that can easily come with more game time this fall, and their special teams has room to improve. This is a team that can go all the way and right now the only thing that I think can hold them back is Jim Tressel’s playcalling. If he opens up his playbook the way he did in the Rose Bowl, look out.
Miami came into this game ranked #12 and leading up to this game it appeared that they wanted to let the world know that they had returned to prominence and that they were seeking revenge for a title game loss that occurred when the current crop of seniors was in 8th grade. On both goals, they fell flat. Their defense played well but had no answer for Terrelle Pryor and allowed too many big plays. Their special teams were solid but allowed a few big kickoff returns, including one where senior kicker Matt Bosher was juked by the Buckeyes return man, nearly fell down, and then recovered and ran him down a few yards later to make the tackle.
Offensively, the Hurricanes struggled with Ohio State’s defense. Even putting the four turnovers aside for a second, they managed to get into the red zone just twice and those two possessions resulted in a missed field goal and an interception that was nearly returned for a touchdown.
I understand that they were playing in a hostile environment against a top tier team. When the newest rankings come out this week, I don’t think they’ll be hurt too much by this loss and I don’t think that Ohio State will benefit too much from this win. The most important thing that I’ll take away from this game is these two teams are on two different levels.
To all you Alabama fans out there:
FEAR THE SWEATER-VEST!
Sunday, December 13, 2009
BCS Preview: Rose Bowl
The Bowl Championship Series this year starts with the granddaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl. This year’s edition matches the Big Ten Champion, the Ohio State Buckeyes, against the Pac-10 Champion, the Oregon Ducks. This game features two drastically contrasting styles of play and it is in those contrasts that this game may very well be decided.
By the Numbers
Ohio State under Jim Tressel relies on defense and special teams with just enough offense. While they scored 30 or more points 7 times, they broke 40 just once and their average (29.25) ranked 47th in the country. The only two games in which they failed to score 20, they lost. On the flipside of the coin, they allowed more than 20 points just three times and they won two of those games. Behind the strength of their 5th ranked defense, they allowed just 12.2 points per game.
The Ducks, on the other hand, scored 40 or more points 7 times and scored at least 30 in another 3 games. They like to move the ball up and down the field and because of that, they ranked very well in offense (6th in rushing, 25th in total offense), and relatively poorly on the defensive side of the ball. They were 38th against the run, 37th against the pass, and 32nd overall, allowing 23.6 points per game. Four times the Ducks allowed 30 or more points and Heisman Finalist Toby Gerhart and Stanford gashed the Oregon defense for 254 rushing yards (223 by Gerhart), 251 passing yards, and 51 points.
Why the Buckeyes Will Win
Jim Tressel is one of the best coaches in America. Ohio State boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Terrelle Pryor is one of the premier playmakers at the quarterback position, although still an unfinished product as a sophomore. One of their defensive strengths (against the run) matches up against Oregon’s offensive strength (running the ball). Lastly, the Buckeyes were 4th in the country in turnover margin.
Why the Ducks Will Win
It has been quite a while since Ohio State won a big game and even longer since they won a BCS Bowl. On the other side, the last time Oregon played in a BCS game, they beat up Colorado in the 2002 Rose Bowl 38-16. They fashioned themselves as a top-10 team and a national title contender earlier this year before they lost badly to Boise State (19-8) and then later to Stanford (51-42). All of this means they will have a chip on their shoulder and will come out gunning in an attempt to finish the season with some momentum and build towards another title run next year. LaMichael James stepped in for LaGarrette Blount after the Boise State game and rushed for 1,476 yards and 14 touchdowns but the key to this game for Oregon will be Jeremiah Masoli. The junior had a passer rating of 133.7 and did show that he could throw the ball when called upon (334 yards against Stanford) but the key will be his running ability. He rushed for 50 or more yards 7 times and if he is able to take pressure off of LaMichael James, the Ducks could fly to victory.
The Verdict
This game features a very tough match-up for the Buckeyes. They are going against a defense that I would categorize as “above average” to “good”. The Buckeyes need to stay disciplined and within their game plan. There is definitely the potential to look at the Ducks defense and their body of work and say “we can outscore them”. The problem is, the strength of the Ducks is their offense. The more you score, the more you give the ball to that high powered offense. Ohio State cannot get into a shootout or they will find themselves trailing and a ball control offense is not conducive to making comebacks. If they can keep the score in the teens or twenties, the Buckeyes will win. Anything past that and Oregon has a distinct advantage.
Oregon 31, Ohio State 21
By the Numbers
Ohio State under Jim Tressel relies on defense and special teams with just enough offense. While they scored 30 or more points 7 times, they broke 40 just once and their average (29.25) ranked 47th in the country. The only two games in which they failed to score 20, they lost. On the flipside of the coin, they allowed more than 20 points just three times and they won two of those games. Behind the strength of their 5th ranked defense, they allowed just 12.2 points per game.
The Ducks, on the other hand, scored 40 or more points 7 times and scored at least 30 in another 3 games. They like to move the ball up and down the field and because of that, they ranked very well in offense (6th in rushing, 25th in total offense), and relatively poorly on the defensive side of the ball. They were 38th against the run, 37th against the pass, and 32nd overall, allowing 23.6 points per game. Four times the Ducks allowed 30 or more points and Heisman Finalist Toby Gerhart and Stanford gashed the Oregon defense for 254 rushing yards (223 by Gerhart), 251 passing yards, and 51 points.
Why the Buckeyes Will Win
Jim Tressel is one of the best coaches in America. Ohio State boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Terrelle Pryor is one of the premier playmakers at the quarterback position, although still an unfinished product as a sophomore. One of their defensive strengths (against the run) matches up against Oregon’s offensive strength (running the ball). Lastly, the Buckeyes were 4th in the country in turnover margin.
Why the Ducks Will Win
It has been quite a while since Ohio State won a big game and even longer since they won a BCS Bowl. On the other side, the last time Oregon played in a BCS game, they beat up Colorado in the 2002 Rose Bowl 38-16. They fashioned themselves as a top-10 team and a national title contender earlier this year before they lost badly to Boise State (19-8) and then later to Stanford (51-42). All of this means they will have a chip on their shoulder and will come out gunning in an attempt to finish the season with some momentum and build towards another title run next year. LaMichael James stepped in for LaGarrette Blount after the Boise State game and rushed for 1,476 yards and 14 touchdowns but the key to this game for Oregon will be Jeremiah Masoli. The junior had a passer rating of 133.7 and did show that he could throw the ball when called upon (334 yards against Stanford) but the key will be his running ability. He rushed for 50 or more yards 7 times and if he is able to take pressure off of LaMichael James, the Ducks could fly to victory.
The Verdict
This game features a very tough match-up for the Buckeyes. They are going against a defense that I would categorize as “above average” to “good”. The Buckeyes need to stay disciplined and within their game plan. There is definitely the potential to look at the Ducks defense and their body of work and say “we can outscore them”. The problem is, the strength of the Ducks is their offense. The more you score, the more you give the ball to that high powered offense. Ohio State cannot get into a shootout or they will find themselves trailing and a ball control offense is not conducive to making comebacks. If they can keep the score in the teens or twenties, the Buckeyes will win. Anything past that and Oregon has a distinct advantage.
Oregon 31, Ohio State 21
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