Last year many writers lauded the Major League Baseball season as the second coming of the “Year of the Pitcher” with 1968 being the first incarnation. This season some of those same writers are saying that this is actually the next “Year of the Pitcher” and it even prompted one writer to say that we are entering the “Era of the Pitcher”. My goal is simply to examine those claims and put some statistical analysis in place to determine which year in the Cy Young era should truly be called the “Year of the Pitcher”.
METHODS
Anyone who has read (almost) any of my posts about pitching know my love of the Bill James metric, Game Score. It is specifically designed to reward good results (strikeouts, longer outings) while penalizing bad results (hits, walks, runs, earned runs) and it boils down an entire pitching performance into one simple number. The “typical” scale is 0-100 but there are examples (albeit rare ones) of starting pitchers going into the negative or above 100.
Here’s the wrinkle; for this analysis, I didn’t use just starting pitching. I used all the pitching numbers so essentially, I’m giving pretty much all teams credit for the innings bonuses in the Game Score (GS) metric. Thus, when I present the GS values, they are presenting the ability of that team or league to maximize strikeouts while minimizing walks, hits, and runs of all kinds. While I understand there is more to pitching than striking batters out, I also acknowledge that it terms of minimizing the chances for something to go wrong as the team in the field, nothing does it better than a strikeout. The batter does not hit the ball in fair territory and fielders are not given the chance to make an error. The astute baseball fan would point out that a batter can reach base on a third strike that comes in the form of a passed ball or wild pitch. However, so far in 2011, there have been 197 passed balls and 874 wild pitches… out of 407,666 total pitches thrown (0.26%). There have also been 1,749 errors committed out of 106,022 total chances (1.65%). Therefore, so far this season, the likelihood of a ball in play turning into an error is five times higher than the likelihood of a pitched ball ending up with a wild pitch or a passed ball.
The next step that I took is I compared the ERA of each individual season to the overall ERA of the Cy Young era (1956-present). I fully understand the pitfalls of ERA but over a large enough sample size, the aberrations will even out and give a decent snapshot of what is actually going on. Lastly, to obtain the single metric with which I compared individual seasons, I took the GS and divided it by 114 (the “perfect” Game Score) and multiplied it by the percentage deviation from the overall average ERA. For example, the league average ERA since 1956 has been 4.00. If the ERA in a particular year was 3.60, then the value I’d plug into this formula is 110.
(4.00-3.60) = 0.40 / 4.00 = 0.1 + 1 = 1.1 x 100 = 110
An ERA of 4.40 would yield a value of 90
(4.40-4.00) = 0.40 / 4.00 = 0.1… 1 – 0.1 = 0.9 x 100 = 90
Thus,
(GS/114)*(ERAadj) = Pitching Factor (PF)
The results were quite almost exactly what you might expect. The following is a list of the top 10 individual seasons during the Cy Young Era and their PF’s (with the last two seasons thrown in for reference).
Rank (out of 56) – Year – PF
1 – 1968 – 0.676
2 – 1972 – 0.614
3 – 1967 – 0.614
4 – 1963 – 0.581
5 – 1965 – 0.575
6 – 1971 – 0.572
7 – 1966 – 0.570
8 – 1964 – 0.558
9 – 1976 – 0.554
10 – 1969 – 0.549
16 – 2011 – 0.523
34 – 2010 – 0.482
42 – 2009 – 0.438
56 – 2000 – 0.361 (last)
As you can see, progress has been made over the past few years but we are still a long ways from saying that the pitching today is on par with that of the late 60’s. Even if you want to throw out 1968 as an aberration (which is valid since it was the last year that the height of the mound wasn’t uniform and mandated) let’s compare this year to #2 overall, 1972. The league wide ERA in 1972 was 3.26 and the overall GS was 59.13. This year those numbers are 3.85 and 57.43, respectively. That 57.43 GS this year ranks 9th overall, up from 16th in 2010.
What we are truly seeing is a combination of factors. First of all, steroids are making their way out of baseball and while I’m sure some players still use, I’m sure that number is significantly down from 2000 when the league wide ERA was 4.77, the highest of the Cy Young era. Secondly, we are seeing a number of young pitchers that are threats to throw a shutout or even a no-hitter every time they go out to the mound. On top of that, teams are getting smarter with their young pitchers and we’re finding a crop of pitchers under 30 that are pitching longer innings than in the last decade and they are effective later in games and later in the season. Lastly, the cut fastball is becoming more and more popular around MLB and pitchers are finding that it is an extremely effective pitch. If you need any proof at all, just look at Mariano Rivera, who has thrown one pitch for virtually his entire career and even though his velocity has decreased through the years, he is on pace to put up an ERA+ over 200 (over 100% better than league average) for the eighth time in nine years… at the age of 41.
Before I move on to the individuals that are driving the increase in chatter about this being the “Year of the Pitcher”, I want to shed some light on another factor that is showing up in the raw data. If you look at a graph of the league wide ERA’s or the runs per game or even the hits or walks allowed per game, there isn’t a ton of deviance. Obviously you have some, given that in 1968 the ERA was 2.98 and it was 4.77 in 2000. There is one statistic that I didn’t mention that features very prominently in the GS calculation that has not stayed constant over the years and is one of the driving forces behind the impression that we are in a golden age of pitching; the strikeout.
In 1956, pitchers struck out an average of 4.69 batters per 9 innings pitched, which works out to 17.4% of outs recorded. In 1968, the average was 5.89 per 9 innings (21.8% of outs) which is a tick above the overall average for the past 56 years (5.86). So far this year, that number is 7.00 per 9 innings, actually down from the all-time high set last year (7.13). Here’s the real question then; are strikeouts the measure of a good pitcher?
My answer is that they contribute but they are not all there is to pitching and I think that your answer to that question greatly defines how much of a renaissance pitching is having in baseball right now. It is certainly better than the time from 1998-2003 but it is still a far cry from a time when a pitcher allowed just 38 earned runs in 304.2 innings.
INDIVIDUALS
The question is simple; what was the best single-season pitching performance in the Cy Young Era (1956-present)? The answer is slightly more complicated because again, it depends on what you value. I tried to encompass everything and personally, I think I did fairly well but I will readily admit that I am biased towards my own method. I’ve talked about the formula I use to judge starting pitchers before but I’ll briefly recap its components.
ERA+
This is the part of my formula that relates one era to another. This metric adjusts a pitcher’s ERA to account for things like the field they pitched on as well as the opponents they pitch against and the league average for that particular season.
Game Score
Simply put, this metric rewards a pitcher for good results (more innings pitched, strikeouts) and detracts for bad results (hits, runs, and walks allowed).
Innings Pitched.
I’ve posed this exact same question before but I’ll do it again. You have two pitchers with identical stat lines; an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of 1.00. One of them pitched 200 innings and another pitched 250 innings. Which would you rather have? Obviously, you want the latter because pitching more innings is more valuable to your team.
The actual formula I use is this:
(ERA+/100)x(GS.ave/114)x(IP)
Using this formula, these are the top ten seasons of the past 56 years
Bob Gibson (1968) – 524.70
Pedro Martinez (2000) – 406.27
Dwight Gooden (1985) – 390.67
Steve Carlton (1972) – 383.36
Sandy Koufax (1966) – 370.66
Wilbur Wood (1971) – 353.88
Vida Blue (1971) – 353.25
Roger Clemens (1997) – 349.89
Gaylord Perry (1972) – 347.77
Ron Guidry (1978) – 344.15
The biggest difference between Gibson and Martinez at the top is simple.
Bob Gibson’s ERA+ was 258 and Pedro’s was 291. Advantage: Pedro
Bob Gibson’s GS.ave was 76.10 and Pedro’s was 73.34. Advantage: Gibson
Pedro Martinez pitched just 217.0 innings in 2000, the fewest of any pitcher in the top ten by 44 innings. Bob Gibson pitched 304.2 innings in 1968.
To put it simply, Pedro might have been slightly better than Gibson but Gibson was at that level of excellence for 87.2 more innings.
…
Yes, pitchers are performing better than they have in the past twenty years and if they do better in the second half of this season, we might be able to rank this season up there with some of the best seasons of the past thirty years. However, to put this year up there with the best pitching seasons of all time is nothing short of laughable. No-hitters and the best ten pitchers in the game do not set a precedent for the entire sport. If this were truly the year of the pitcher, then we would be saying that the worst pitcher on any staff would be a good pitcher on the staffs of other seasons and we aren’t to that point yet.
I am enjoying this rebirth of pitching more than anyone else I know and I have always liked 1-0 games more than 11-10 slugfests. Home runs are fun in batting practice but in the game I want to see the best hitters in the world acting like it.
I want to see them hitting behind runners to move them over a base.
I want to see them taking a pitch on the outside corner to the opposite field, taking a single instead of trying to hit a home run and making an out instead.
I want to see a middle of the order hitter square around to bunt and actually look like he knows what he’s doing.
I want to see a batter NOT try to hit a home run with two strikes and realize that a weak single helps the team more than a strikeout.
I guess when it all comes down to it; I want to see more batters hit like Edgar Martinez did.
And that’s the overwhelming impression that I get from all of this number crunching I’ve done. Yes, pitching is better now than at any point in the past ten years and there are more good or great pitchers that I would pay money to see pitch than at any point for quite some time. Since we’re giving credit where credit is due, let’s give blame where it is due as well. Batters are not adjusting to this new era of baseball well and the result is bad approaches to the plate and easy outs. In the 2009 World Series, the one batter that didn’t scare me in the Phillies line-up was Ryan Howard. This was the same guy who in the four regular seasons leading up to that had hit well (.278/.379/.589) and had hit the ball far (198 home runs and 572 RBI). Why wasn’t I afraid? He’s not a good hitter and he’s even worse against left handed pitching. What was the result?
Game 1 – 2-5 with 2 doubles
Game 2 – 0-4 with 4 K’s
Game 3 – 0-4 with 3 K’s
Game 4 – 1-4
Game 5 – 0-2 with 2 BB’s… and 2 K’s
Game 6 – 1-4 with a 2-run homer that came with the Phillies down 7-1
Total that up and it’s just ugly. Batters want to hit home runs and drive in runs. They want gaudy video game numbers that lead to contract’s like Howard’s 5 year, $125 million extension that he recently signed.
It’s time for the country to fall out of love with the home run and appreciate the nasty 2-1 slider that induces an inning-ending double play.
It ain’t sexy but it wins ballgames.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Thursday, July 14, 2011
First Half Review
So, half the season has come and gone and sure enough, most of the standings look exactly as many people predicted them several months ago. The Rangers are in first place – despite a recent surge from the Angels – after their American League Championship season of a year ago and the Giants have opened up a sizable lead in the NL West after beating the Rangers last October. Neither is terribly unexpected mostly because the AL West is extremely weak and the NL West has more than its share of drama surrounding one of its better teams and the injury bug has bitten another of the favorites.
In the central, the Tigers have overcome a horrendous pitching staff to get to first place on the back of staff ace Justin Verlander. They have also taken advantage of the inevitable decline from the Indians who started the season very hot but haven’t maintained their level of play. Despite uneven, injured, or downright terrible play, both the White Sox (5) and the Twins (6.5) are within striking distance and are two good weeks from taking control of the division.
In the NL Central, a few teams made some improvements to their teams to try and make a run at the division this year but still they are all chasing the Cardinals which is apparently the team veterans join to resurrect their careers. The most heartwarming tale of the entire season comes from the NL Central where the Pittsburgh Pirates are 47-43 and just one game out in the division. They are searching for their first winning season since 1992 and for the sake of one of the sports older franchises, I’m pulling for them all the way. If Pujols comes back to his regular form, there is little chance that they could catch the Cardinals and there is an even smaller chance of them winning the wildcard but nevertheless, it’s a truly great story for the Pirates.
In the east are the two divisions that have truly given us little to talk about in terms of teams exceeding or falling short of preseason expectations. After one month of the season, I predicted the order of finish in the AL East would be Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles. At the All-Star break, the only difference is the Red Sox are leading and the Yankees are in second but seeing as how there is only a one game difference between them, I’ll give myself full credit for that one. In the National League, I was not fooled by Florida’s fast start but I still didn’t see their nose dive coming and I also didn’t see the Mets playing respectable ball either.
Predicted Order: Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, Mets
Current Order: Phillies, Braves, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
What has replaced surprise teams in my opinion are individuals who are exceeding expectations or are quietly having outstanding seasons at the halfway point (or, frankly, those who are doing the opposite of that).
THE GREAT AND THE UGLY
Adrian Gonzalez (.354/.414/.591, 17 HR, 77 RBI)
Jose Bautista (.334/.468/.702, 31 HR, 63 RBI)
First of all, I knew Gonzalez was good but I never fully appreciated how much his lineup and Petco Park were holding him back. Now freed from his San Diego purgatory, he is on pace to set career highs in all three slash categories (.304, .407, .551 are his previous career highs) as well as smash his career highs in hits and RBI (he’s on pace for 230 and 139 with career highs of 182 and 119). If the Red Sox keep winning with their shaky rotation and he keeps hitting the way he is, it’ll be hard for writers to not punch his name as AL MVP.
As for Bautista, I guess you could say he’s answering a lot of the critics who were saying that he was a one-hit wonder last year (and while I may not have said it, I was definitely thinking it… Jose, I apologize for doubting you). As for those of you out there who are jumping to the PED conclusion with his sudden power stroke, an article was written a while ago on espn.com talking about how the Pirates were trying to make him a slap hitter. If you watch a few of his home runs you can tell he’s not a slap hitter.
However, the other reason I doubt he’s using PED’s (based on very little) is he is a dead pull hitter. Nearly all of his 54 homers last year and 31 this year have gone out to left field. If you look at the list of guys that were suspected of using PED’s or tested positive (Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez) these guys all hit a ton of home runs to the opposite field which requires either far better discipline or far more strength (or some combination thereof). What I see is a guy who is comfortable at the plate and he’s only swinging at the pitches that he knows he can drive to left. I don’t see a guy who is juicing.
Adam Dunn (.160/.292/.305, 9 HR, 34 RBI)
Dan Uggla (.185/.257/.365, 15 HR, 34 RBI)
I never saw either of these coming. Dunn is still walking (47 thus far) and Uggla is still hitting the long ball but not much of anything else is happening for these two guys who were paid big money to supplement their respective lineups. I can’t say anything that hasn’t already been said so I’ll leave it at this; if these guys get hot, watch out for the White Sox and the Braves.
PITCHERS
With relatively few noteworthy performances (to the point of being transcendent) that has left the baseball world to the pitchers and they are taking the sport over. Many have referred to 2010 as the Year of the Pitcher, Part II and some are saying that this year pitchers are even more dominant. I’m not going to go that far and I’m in the process of putting together some numbers which said what I’ve suspected all along; pitching had a bigger advantage over hitting than they do today… but that’s for another day.
Since it is the All-Star break I’ve thrown the numbers into my magic formula which predicted Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young Awards a year ago. To give you an idea of scale, Felix Hernandez had a score of 242.58 while Halladay was second in baseball at 228.93. The next highest American Leaguer was Clay Buchholz at 164.14.
So far, your American League Cy Young winner of the first half should be…
Jered Weaver, with a score of 164.60 followed by…
Justin Verlander (158.41)
James Shields (125.40)
CC Sabathia (115.13)
Josh Beckett (109.49)
…and in the NL it should be…
Roy Halladay, with a score of 125.91.
Cole Hamels (122.78)
Jair Jurrjens (122.31)
Cliff Lee (102.15)
Tommy Hanson (87.62)
Before you ask why the scores are so low, it is because one of the components in my formula is innings pitched. Last year Halladay pitched 250.2 innings and thus far this year he’s only thrown 143.1 (which leads the NL); hence, the difference. Also of note, all of the top five pitchers in the National League are from the two teams with the best records in the NL… coincidence? Not at all.
PREDICTION TIME
AL/NL Cy Young Awards:
See above
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
Depending on your definition of what the “most valuable player” is, you could put any one of several names in here. Where would the Blue Jays offense be without Jose Bautista? Where would the Tigers be (with their incredibly bad pitching staff) without Justin Verlander? However, I believe that there is a bit of a tradition of taking the best player from the best team when there are several candidates and the player that fits that description is Gonzalez.
NL MVP: Prince Fielder
Not too long ago, it looked like this was going to be Jose Reyes and he still might come back from his hamstring tweak and put up video game style offensive numbers while playing a good defensive shortstop. I wouldn’t bet on it though since his game is heavily reliant on speed. If he comes back too soon or isn’t at 100%, his numbers will be good but not otherworldly. In the east, no non-pitcher is really taking the reins as an MVP favorite and the voters have gotten over their love affair with Ryan Howard (finally). In the west, one of the best overall players (and certainly the best player on the defending champion Giants) destroyed his ankle and where are they now without him? Oh yeah, first place. That leaves the central and no player has stood out above his peers more than the Prince.
Playoff Teams (AL):
Red Sox
Tigers
Rangers
Yankees (WC)
Playoff Teams (NL):
Phillies
Brewers
Giants
Braves (WC)
Here are the differences between now and early May when I first predicted the order of finish:
- The Rockies have not played well and the Giants have.
- I originally predicted the Cardinals or Reds coming out of the central but I have a better feeling about the Brewers.
- I originally picked the Yankees to win the east instead of the wildcard. Either the Red Sox or Yankees will win the east and the other will take the wildcard.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AL:
Yankees over Tigers
Red Sox over Rangers
Red Sox over Yankees
NL:
Phillies over Brewers
Braves over Giants
Phillies over Braves
And finally, good pitching will always beat good hitting (except when it doesn’t, as Yogi would say)…
WORLD SERIES
Phillies over Red Sox
Enjoy baseball after the extended break and soon I’ll be back to examine the claim that this is the year of the pitcher once again (or heaven forbid, the ERA of the pitcher!)…
In the central, the Tigers have overcome a horrendous pitching staff to get to first place on the back of staff ace Justin Verlander. They have also taken advantage of the inevitable decline from the Indians who started the season very hot but haven’t maintained their level of play. Despite uneven, injured, or downright terrible play, both the White Sox (5) and the Twins (6.5) are within striking distance and are two good weeks from taking control of the division.
In the NL Central, a few teams made some improvements to their teams to try and make a run at the division this year but still they are all chasing the Cardinals which is apparently the team veterans join to resurrect their careers. The most heartwarming tale of the entire season comes from the NL Central where the Pittsburgh Pirates are 47-43 and just one game out in the division. They are searching for their first winning season since 1992 and for the sake of one of the sports older franchises, I’m pulling for them all the way. If Pujols comes back to his regular form, there is little chance that they could catch the Cardinals and there is an even smaller chance of them winning the wildcard but nevertheless, it’s a truly great story for the Pirates.
In the east are the two divisions that have truly given us little to talk about in terms of teams exceeding or falling short of preseason expectations. After one month of the season, I predicted the order of finish in the AL East would be Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles. At the All-Star break, the only difference is the Red Sox are leading and the Yankees are in second but seeing as how there is only a one game difference between them, I’ll give myself full credit for that one. In the National League, I was not fooled by Florida’s fast start but I still didn’t see their nose dive coming and I also didn’t see the Mets playing respectable ball either.
Predicted Order: Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, Mets
Current Order: Phillies, Braves, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
What has replaced surprise teams in my opinion are individuals who are exceeding expectations or are quietly having outstanding seasons at the halfway point (or, frankly, those who are doing the opposite of that).
THE GREAT AND THE UGLY
Adrian Gonzalez (.354/.414/.591, 17 HR, 77 RBI)
Jose Bautista (.334/.468/.702, 31 HR, 63 RBI)
First of all, I knew Gonzalez was good but I never fully appreciated how much his lineup and Petco Park were holding him back. Now freed from his San Diego purgatory, he is on pace to set career highs in all three slash categories (.304, .407, .551 are his previous career highs) as well as smash his career highs in hits and RBI (he’s on pace for 230 and 139 with career highs of 182 and 119). If the Red Sox keep winning with their shaky rotation and he keeps hitting the way he is, it’ll be hard for writers to not punch his name as AL MVP.
As for Bautista, I guess you could say he’s answering a lot of the critics who were saying that he was a one-hit wonder last year (and while I may not have said it, I was definitely thinking it… Jose, I apologize for doubting you). As for those of you out there who are jumping to the PED conclusion with his sudden power stroke, an article was written a while ago on espn.com talking about how the Pirates were trying to make him a slap hitter. If you watch a few of his home runs you can tell he’s not a slap hitter.
However, the other reason I doubt he’s using PED’s (based on very little) is he is a dead pull hitter. Nearly all of his 54 homers last year and 31 this year have gone out to left field. If you look at the list of guys that were suspected of using PED’s or tested positive (Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez) these guys all hit a ton of home runs to the opposite field which requires either far better discipline or far more strength (or some combination thereof). What I see is a guy who is comfortable at the plate and he’s only swinging at the pitches that he knows he can drive to left. I don’t see a guy who is juicing.
Adam Dunn (.160/.292/.305, 9 HR, 34 RBI)
Dan Uggla (.185/.257/.365, 15 HR, 34 RBI)
I never saw either of these coming. Dunn is still walking (47 thus far) and Uggla is still hitting the long ball but not much of anything else is happening for these two guys who were paid big money to supplement their respective lineups. I can’t say anything that hasn’t already been said so I’ll leave it at this; if these guys get hot, watch out for the White Sox and the Braves.
PITCHERS
With relatively few noteworthy performances (to the point of being transcendent) that has left the baseball world to the pitchers and they are taking the sport over. Many have referred to 2010 as the Year of the Pitcher, Part II and some are saying that this year pitchers are even more dominant. I’m not going to go that far and I’m in the process of putting together some numbers which said what I’ve suspected all along; pitching had a bigger advantage over hitting than they do today… but that’s for another day.
Since it is the All-Star break I’ve thrown the numbers into my magic formula which predicted Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young Awards a year ago. To give you an idea of scale, Felix Hernandez had a score of 242.58 while Halladay was second in baseball at 228.93. The next highest American Leaguer was Clay Buchholz at 164.14.
So far, your American League Cy Young winner of the first half should be…
Jered Weaver, with a score of 164.60 followed by…
Justin Verlander (158.41)
James Shields (125.40)
CC Sabathia (115.13)
Josh Beckett (109.49)
…and in the NL it should be…
Roy Halladay, with a score of 125.91.
Cole Hamels (122.78)
Jair Jurrjens (122.31)
Cliff Lee (102.15)
Tommy Hanson (87.62)
Before you ask why the scores are so low, it is because one of the components in my formula is innings pitched. Last year Halladay pitched 250.2 innings and thus far this year he’s only thrown 143.1 (which leads the NL); hence, the difference. Also of note, all of the top five pitchers in the National League are from the two teams with the best records in the NL… coincidence? Not at all.
PREDICTION TIME
AL/NL Cy Young Awards:
See above
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
Depending on your definition of what the “most valuable player” is, you could put any one of several names in here. Where would the Blue Jays offense be without Jose Bautista? Where would the Tigers be (with their incredibly bad pitching staff) without Justin Verlander? However, I believe that there is a bit of a tradition of taking the best player from the best team when there are several candidates and the player that fits that description is Gonzalez.
NL MVP: Prince Fielder
Not too long ago, it looked like this was going to be Jose Reyes and he still might come back from his hamstring tweak and put up video game style offensive numbers while playing a good defensive shortstop. I wouldn’t bet on it though since his game is heavily reliant on speed. If he comes back too soon or isn’t at 100%, his numbers will be good but not otherworldly. In the east, no non-pitcher is really taking the reins as an MVP favorite and the voters have gotten over their love affair with Ryan Howard (finally). In the west, one of the best overall players (and certainly the best player on the defending champion Giants) destroyed his ankle and where are they now without him? Oh yeah, first place. That leaves the central and no player has stood out above his peers more than the Prince.
Playoff Teams (AL):
Red Sox
Tigers
Rangers
Yankees (WC)
Playoff Teams (NL):
Phillies
Brewers
Giants
Braves (WC)
Here are the differences between now and early May when I first predicted the order of finish:
- The Rockies have not played well and the Giants have.
- I originally predicted the Cardinals or Reds coming out of the central but I have a better feeling about the Brewers.
- I originally picked the Yankees to win the east instead of the wildcard. Either the Red Sox or Yankees will win the east and the other will take the wildcard.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AL:
Yankees over Tigers
Red Sox over Rangers
Red Sox over Yankees
NL:
Phillies over Brewers
Braves over Giants
Phillies over Braves
And finally, good pitching will always beat good hitting (except when it doesn’t, as Yogi would say)…
WORLD SERIES
Phillies over Red Sox
Enjoy baseball after the extended break and soon I’ll be back to examine the claim that this is the year of the pitcher once again (or heaven forbid, the ERA of the pitcher!)…
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