First Half Review

So, half the season has come and gone and sure enough, most of the standings look exactly as many people predicted them several months ago. The Rangers are in first place – despite a recent surge from the Angels – after their American League Championship season of a year ago and the Giants have opened up a sizable lead in the NL West after beating the Rangers last October. Neither is terribly unexpected mostly because the AL West is extremely weak and the NL West has more than its share of drama surrounding one of its better teams and the injury bug has bitten another of the favorites.

In the central, the Tigers have overcome a horrendous pitching staff to get to first place on the back of staff ace Justin Verlander. They have also taken advantage of the inevitable decline from the Indians who started the season very hot but haven’t maintained their level of play. Despite uneven, injured, or downright terrible play, both the White Sox (5) and the Twins (6.5) are within striking distance and are two good weeks from taking control of the division.

In the NL Central, a few teams made some improvements to their teams to try and make a run at the division this year but still they are all chasing the Cardinals which is apparently the team veterans join to resurrect their careers. The most heartwarming tale of the entire season comes from the NL Central where the Pittsburgh Pirates are 47-43 and just one game out in the division. They are searching for their first winning season since 1992 and for the sake of one of the sports older franchises, I’m pulling for them all the way. If Pujols comes back to his regular form, there is little chance that they could catch the Cardinals and there is an even smaller chance of them winning the wildcard but nevertheless, it’s a truly great story for the Pirates.

In the east are the two divisions that have truly given us little to talk about in terms of teams exceeding or falling short of preseason expectations. After one month of the season, I predicted the order of finish in the AL East would be Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles. At the All-Star break, the only difference is the Red Sox are leading and the Yankees are in second but seeing as how there is only a one game difference between them, I’ll give myself full credit for that one. In the National League, I was not fooled by Florida’s fast start but I still didn’t see their nose dive coming and I also didn’t see the Mets playing respectable ball either.

Predicted Order: Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, Mets
Current Order: Phillies, Braves, Mets, Nationals, Marlins

What has replaced surprise teams in my opinion are individuals who are exceeding expectations or are quietly having outstanding seasons at the halfway point (or, frankly, those who are doing the opposite of that).

THE GREAT AND THE UGLY

Adrian Gonzalez (.354/.414/.591, 17 HR, 77 RBI)
Jose Bautista (.334/.468/.702, 31 HR, 63 RBI)

First of all, I knew Gonzalez was good but I never fully appreciated how much his lineup and Petco Park were holding him back. Now freed from his San Diego purgatory, he is on pace to set career highs in all three slash categories (.304, .407, .551 are his previous career highs) as well as smash his career highs in hits and RBI (he’s on pace for 230 and 139 with career highs of 182 and 119). If the Red Sox keep winning with their shaky rotation and he keeps hitting the way he is, it’ll be hard for writers to not punch his name as AL MVP.

As for Bautista, I guess you could say he’s answering a lot of the critics who were saying that he was a one-hit wonder last year (and while I may not have said it, I was definitely thinking it… Jose, I apologize for doubting you). As for those of you out there who are jumping to the PED conclusion with his sudden power stroke, an article was written a while ago on espn.com talking about how the Pirates were trying to make him a slap hitter. If you watch a few of his home runs you can tell he’s not a slap hitter.

However, the other reason I doubt he’s using PED’s (based on very little) is he is a dead pull hitter. Nearly all of his 54 homers last year and 31 this year have gone out to left field. If you look at the list of guys that were suspected of using PED’s or tested positive (Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez) these guys all hit a ton of home runs to the opposite field which requires either far better discipline or far more strength (or some combination thereof). What I see is a guy who is comfortable at the plate and he’s only swinging at the pitches that he knows he can drive to left. I don’t see a guy who is juicing.

Adam Dunn (.160/.292/.305, 9 HR, 34 RBI)
Dan Uggla (.185/.257/.365, 15 HR, 34 RBI)

I never saw either of these coming. Dunn is still walking (47 thus far) and Uggla is still hitting the long ball but not much of anything else is happening for these two guys who were paid big money to supplement their respective lineups. I can’t say anything that hasn’t already been said so I’ll leave it at this; if these guys get hot, watch out for the White Sox and the Braves.

PITCHERS

With relatively few noteworthy performances (to the point of being transcendent) that has left the baseball world to the pitchers and they are taking the sport over. Many have referred to 2010 as the Year of the Pitcher, Part II and some are saying that this year pitchers are even more dominant. I’m not going to go that far and I’m in the process of putting together some numbers which said what I’ve suspected all along; pitching had a bigger advantage over hitting than they do today… but that’s for another day.

Since it is the All-Star break I’ve thrown the numbers into my magic formula which predicted Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young Awards a year ago. To give you an idea of scale, Felix Hernandez had a score of 242.58 while Halladay was second in baseball at 228.93. The next highest American Leaguer was Clay Buchholz at 164.14.

So far, your American League Cy Young winner of the first half should be…

Jered Weaver, with a score of 164.60 followed by…
Justin Verlander (158.41)
James Shields (125.40)
CC Sabathia (115.13)
Josh Beckett (109.49)

…and in the NL it should be…

Roy Halladay, with a score of 125.91.
Cole Hamels (122.78)
Jair Jurrjens (122.31)
Cliff Lee (102.15)
Tommy Hanson (87.62)

Before you ask why the scores are so low, it is because one of the components in my formula is innings pitched. Last year Halladay pitched 250.2 innings and thus far this year he’s only thrown 143.1 (which leads the NL); hence, the difference. Also of note, all of the top five pitchers in the National League are from the two teams with the best records in the NL… coincidence? Not at all.

PREDICTION TIME

AL/NL Cy Young Awards:
See above

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
Depending on your definition of what the “most valuable player” is, you could put any one of several names in here. Where would the Blue Jays offense be without Jose Bautista? Where would the Tigers be (with their incredibly bad pitching staff) without Justin Verlander? However, I believe that there is a bit of a tradition of taking the best player from the best team when there are several candidates and the player that fits that description is Gonzalez.

NL MVP: Prince Fielder
Not too long ago, it looked like this was going to be Jose Reyes and he still might come back from his hamstring tweak and put up video game style offensive numbers while playing a good defensive shortstop. I wouldn’t bet on it though since his game is heavily reliant on speed. If he comes back too soon or isn’t at 100%, his numbers will be good but not otherworldly. In the east, no non-pitcher is really taking the reins as an MVP favorite and the voters have gotten over their love affair with Ryan Howard (finally). In the west, one of the best overall players (and certainly the best player on the defending champion Giants) destroyed his ankle and where are they now without him? Oh yeah, first place. That leaves the central and no player has stood out above his peers more than the Prince.

Playoff Teams (AL):
Red Sox
Tigers
Rangers
Yankees (WC)

Playoff Teams (NL):
Phillies
Brewers
Giants
Braves (WC)

Here are the differences between now and early May when I first predicted the order of finish:

- The Rockies have not played well and the Giants have.
- I originally predicted the Cardinals or Reds coming out of the central but I have a better feeling about the Brewers.
- I originally picked the Yankees to win the east instead of the wildcard. Either the Red Sox or Yankees will win the east and the other will take the wildcard.

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

AL:
Yankees over Tigers
Red Sox over Rangers

Red Sox over Yankees

NL:
Phillies over Brewers
Braves over Giants

Phillies over Braves

And finally, good pitching will always beat good hitting (except when it doesn’t, as Yogi would say)…

WORLD SERIES

Phillies over Red Sox



Enjoy baseball after the extended break and soon I’ll be back to examine the claim that this is the year of the pitcher once again (or heaven forbid, the ERA of the pitcher!)…