MLB Power Rankings

Major League Baseball is almost upon us once again and like I did recently with the NFL, I’m going to rank the 30 teams. Again, you must keep this in mind; I’m not ranking them according to who I think is the best team right now. I’m ranking them according to this mindset; if I was able to take over any franchise for the next 3-5 years, which would I want to take over?

This also is not a ranking of my favorite teams. Purely from a baseball standpoint, which franchise would I want to run with the general direction that they are going. This is a big reason why the winningest team in the past four seasons ranks 9th in these power rankings.

Along with every team, there will be a won-lost record but that is the team’s average record over the past four years. I’m also presenting two indications of the quality of the team’s hitting and pitching over that time span in the form of percentile ranks for OPS and ERA. I know these aren’t necessarily the best indicators of overall performance but they can be informative. For instance, you’d expect a team that is in the 56th percentile for OPS and the 82nd percentile for ERA to have a better record than a team that is in the 40th percentile and 4th percentile, respectively. Sure enough, the Philadelphia Phillies have had an average record of 93.3-68.8 over the past four years with three playoffs appearances while the Cleveland Indians have had an average record of 70.5-91.5 and haven’t been to the playoffs. More than anything else, these percentile ranks can give an indication of where a team’s strengths lie.

THE “MONEY MEANS NOTHING!!!” DIVISION

1 – Las Angeles Angels of Anaheim
88.0-74.0
57.8, 51.8

In a lot of ways, it’s somewhat difficult to separate the three teams in this division but first and foremost, why am I ranking these three teams, with a combined 2 playoff appearance in the past four years, ahead of three teams that have won the World Series, another three that have appeared in a World Series, and the nine winningest teams from just last year?

Remember, these rankings are basically which franchise I’d like to run for the next 3-5 years. The Angels, Blue Jays, and Dodgers have shown in the last year or so (more recently for the Dodgers and Blue Jays) that they are financially committed to building a winning team and hopefully sustaining it over a long term. Nothing helps a front office build a consistent winner quite like an ownership group with deep pockets who isn’t afraid to write checks and make mistakes. In a lot of ways, that is what made the Yankees and Red Sox so successful in the late ‘90’s and through most of the ‘00’s. Both teams made mistakes and spent a ton of money but they were perennial World Series contenders and sold out their stadiums far more often than not.

Now, the question becomes, why the Angels first? Their competition. The Athletics are on the upswing but they aren’t on the same level as the Angels. The Mariners aren’t worth mentioning in this conversation. The single biggest acquisition the Angels made this offseason was poaching arguably the best player from (you guessed it) the Texas Rangers. With a full season of Mike Trout hitting in front of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton (assuming he resembles his overall season line from 2012 and not the feast or famine that was his season), the Angels should score plenty of runs and win the AL West relatively easily.

2 – Toronto Blue Jays
78.5-83.5
60.0, 18.6

The iron was hot and the Blue Jays struck… and then they struck again. The Yankees are old and three key contributors are coming back from serious injuries (Rodriguez, Jeter, and Rivera). Tampa Bay had to trade away one of their best pitchers in the hope that they upgraded their lineup. Baltimore’s run differential doesn’t say they will replicate last year’s 94 wins and the Red Sox are still putting together the pieces and nobody knows what to expect from them yet.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays acquired a Cy Young winner (RA Dickey), a guy who could win a Cy Young if he’s healthy (Josh Johnson), a dependable lefty who has thrown 200+ innings for the past 12 years (Mark Buehrle), a guy two years removed from a great season and a year removed from a “better than what we have” season (Reyes), and a guy who hit .346/.390/.516 last year… with a sizable asterisk (Melky Cabrera).

If Dickey can prevent any serious falloff, Johnson can stay healthy, and Romero can get back to his 2011 form (15-11, 2.92 ERA), this team will be good. If Reyes can improve upon his .287/.347/.433 from a year ago and Jose Bautista can stay healthy and play like he did in 2010-11, this team could be great.

3 – Los Angeles Dodgers
85.8-76.0
34.6, 89.4

The Dodgers made incredible noise last year by acquiring every bad contract except for Alex Rodriguez’s. However, this is a team with significant question marks. Adrian Gonzalez played decently for the Dodgers but they need him to be an All-Star. Nobody knows what to expect from Carl Crawford after missing most of last season and who knows what Josh Beckett will bring. Throw Zach Greinke into a high pressure situation and everyone holds their breath (apparently).

If they all perform as they are capable (you know, before Boston sent them packing to get out from under their contracts), the Dodgers could be very good. This could also turn into a train wreck very quickly. With so many question marks, why are they so high?

Money. Los Angeles is the second largest city in the US, the media market is huge, and finally the Dodgers have an ownership group that stands poised to exploit it and pour that money into the team. Within the next few years, the Dodgers will have in place a TV contract that will pay the team an estimated $250 million dollars each year. I’m sure that there are 29 other GM’s that would love to have those resources backing them up.

WORLD SERIES CONTENDERS

4 – San Francisco Giants
90.0-72.0
30.0, 100.0

The Giants have played six postseason series in the past four years and have won all of them, including the 2010 and 2012 World Series. They are not the type of team with the resources to compete every single year but they retool quickly and they have an innovative front office and a manager that isn’t afraid to try some strange things. When the players buy in, that’s a powerful combination.

The two most important people to their more recent World Series run, in my opinion, were Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum. It would have been easy for a player to become a malcontent when making $18 million a year and getting left off a World Series roster, as Zito was in 2010. However, he worked out during the series in case he was needed and this past postseason, he got some spot starts and pitched effectively, giving the Giants some much needed depth in their rotation due to the struggle of… Tim Lincecum. Last year was awful for the two-time Cy Young winner but when he was moved to the bullpen to start the postseason, he never pouted (as least not publicly) and he accepted his role as a chance to help the team. He threw 6.1 shutout innings against the Reds, lost a spot start against the Cardinals, and then pitched 4.2 hitless innings in two relief appearances in the World Series, walking just one and striking out 8.

That kind of professionalism always helps winning teams stay on the winning side of things. The fact that it came from two of their highest paid players makes it even more significant. And I haven’t even mentioned Buster Posey, whose .336/.408/.549 line with 24 home runs and very good defense was good enough for the NL MVP award.

It’s a good time to be a Giants fan.

5 – Washington Nationals
76.5-85.3
43.1, 53.2

It is a great time for our nation’s capital but it is a depressing time to be a Montreal Expos fan. This is very much like the Cleveland Browns fans watching their team flee to Baltimore and then winning the Super Bowl only a few years later.

Their record over the past few years isn’t that impressive but that includes their 98-64 record from a year ago; this is definitely a team on the upswing. Bryce Harper is poised to breakout (because 5.0 WAR at age 19 isn’t breaking out?) and they get to look forward to a full season of Stephen Strasburg. Add to that a repeat performance from Gio Gonzalez and the sky is the limit for this team.

6 – Atlanta Braves
90.0-72.0
42.2, 95.0

No matter which way you slice it, two of the best four teams in the National League reside in the east so despite the fact that it will be difficult for them to keep up with the Nationals, I very much like the Braves’ chances to consistently compete for if not win the wildcard (especially now that there are two of them). They had the third best record in the NL last year and got better with the additions of BJ and Justin Upton.

On top of all this, the Braves have had one of the best, most stable front offices in all of baseball over the past twenty years and when it comes to dealing with the unexpected over the course of a six month long season, the importance of this cannot be underestimated.

7 – Detroit Tigers
87.5-74.8
67.8, 45.2

If someone had offered me an over/under of 95 wins for the Tigers last year, I would have been sorely tempted to pick the over. With Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder in the middle of the lineup and Justin Verlander heading the rotation, their roster looked very good on paper.

They never seemed to get into a good groove and ended up at 88-74… right in line with their average record over the past four years. The biggest piece of evidence that I have in support of the Tigers is the rest of the AL Central. The average record of the other four teams in the division the past four years is 74.9-87.1 with two playoff appearances and two series defeats.

The White Sox are a bit of an enigma, the Twins are reeling compared to their height of several years ago, the Royals are perpetually rebuilding, and the Indians are right down there with them.

The Tigers have young stars under contract for a long time (especially once they open the Justin Verlander Bank and hand him the keys) and that should be good enough to get them into the playoffs (barring injury) with relative ease.

8 – St. Louis Cardinals
88.8-73.3
63.3, 81.1

Over the past four years, only the Yankees have played in more playoff series than the Cardinals (8 to 7 – the Rangers have also played in 7). They simply seem to be one of those organizations that always competes and if you get into a five or seven game series with them, they are always dangerous. Their percentile score of 144.8 (combined percentiles above) ranks second over the past four years, again only behind the Yankees.

Unfortunately, a large part of me ranking them this high was the thought that they would finally get Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter healthy in the same season. It was recently announced that Chris Carpenter would likely miss the entire 2013 season and – nothing is final yet – will likely retire due to nerve damage in his right shoulder. I’ve always been a fan of Carpenter and I believe this is a loss for the whole game, not just the Cardinals.

As much as I’d love to count them out, they were just one step from the World Series and they were without Adam Wainwright for the entire season so now that he’s back, who knows where they’ll go or how good they’ll be? They have been consistently good over the past several years and they play in a division that isn’t the strongest (though it got stronger with the subtraction of the Astros) so I think they’ll be able to compete for a wild card spot again.

9 – New York Yankees
97.5-64.5
100.0, 55.4

How can the team that has won more games the past four years than any other and has a higher percentile total than any other team be ranked behind 8 other teams?

The fact of the matter is that we know less about this Yankees team heading into spring training than any other year in the past ten that I can think of. Derek Jeter pushed back Father Time once again last year, posting a line of .316/.362/.429 but then broke his ankle in the playoffs. How will he be coming back from that injury? Mariano Rivera was limited to 9 appearances due to a torn ACL suffered during batting practice (he wasn’t batting, he was out in the outfield). Given that he’s now 43, I’d imagine that coming back from that injury won’t be easy. For the first time since joining the Yankees, CC Sabathia failed to make 30 starts and pitched the fewest innings he’s recorded since 2006 with Cleveland. Is this an aberration or the beginning of his inevitable decline (he’ll turn 33 in July this year)?

Lastly, there is their prima dona, Alex Rodriguez. Much has been written on the subject of his decline over the past few years and it appears that the five years and $114 million left on his contract will be little more than an albatross around the Yankees’ collective neck.

Most importantly, all these injuries came at a time when the rest of the division is getting better and Hal Steinbrenner has decided that he doesn’t want to pay half the team’s payroll in luxury taxes. Ownership wants to get under $186 million in payroll before opening day 2014 (if I’m remembering correctly) to get back into the lower tax bracket when it comes to the luxury tax.

After that, it’s possible they will relapse back into their free spending days but I doubt it. With the efficiency present in Tampa Bay, the up-an-comings in Baltimore, the go-for-broke in Toronto, and the overall age of the Yankees’ stars, the next few years looks a little grim for the pinstripes.

PLAYOFF CONTENDERS

10 – Tampa Bay Rays
90.3-71.8
54.2, 77.2

It was difficult to rank the Rays below the Yankees but at the end of the day, the financial resources available in the Bronx are too lucrative to pass up. Despite back to back playoff appearance in 2010 and 2011 and a third straight year of winning 90+ games, the Rays drew just 1,559,681 fans, or just 19,255 per game. That’s the lowest attendance in the American League.

The biggest question mark for me is will Wil Myers be enough to make people forget about James Shields. Shields was 87-73 with a 3.89 ERA for the Rays in his seven years and the past two years appeared to be on the cusp of becoming one of the best pitchers in the league.

Their rotation will still be a strength with Cy Young winner David Price and if they get a full season from Evan Longoria, they’ll be in pretty decent shape. Fernando Rodney had a ludicrously good season as their closer so there will be some definite regression on that front.

Last year they ranked first in the AL with a 3.19 team ERA and Shields’ mark was actually above that. If they can pitch like that for the next few years, they’ll be in the mix in September every year.

11 – Cincinnati Reds
86.3-75.8
52.6, 59.8

The Reds have been to the playoffs twice in the past four years and didn’t make it past the wildcard round either time. Last year they beat the Giants twice on the road and then lost three straight at home to the eventual World Series champs.

They have a lot of talent and they’ve done well in the regular season the past few years but none of that success has translated to the postseason yet. Last year they won their division by 9 games and I could see a similar margin this year but to move up these rankings, they’ll have to make good on some of that promise.

On the field, getting more than 111 games out of Joey Votto will help their cause this coming season and Reds fans are hoping that Johnny Cueto’s 2012 performance is his new norm, not the exception. One question I’m forced to ask about the Reds is this; if their rotation pitched quite well last year (which they did) and Aroldis Chapman was more or less unhittable out of the bullpen (which he was), why would they mess with a good thing?

I understand that starters are more valuable than relievers due to the number of innings they pitch but I just can’t help but think that having his arm in the bullpen is the best thing for the Reds right now. If they didn’t have competent arms in the rotation, I can understand making the switch but for the most part, they are. I can’t help but think that Joba Chamberlain’s career was somewhat derailed because of his stint in the rotation and Eric Gagne’s time in the rotation was disastrous when compared to his time coming out of the pen.

Having said that, starters are more valuable than relievers and if Chapman can pitch anything close to as well as he did out of the pen, he could be one of the best starters in the NL.

12 – Texas Rangers
91.5-70.5
81.3, 51.6

In the past four years, the Rangers have won the AL West twice and finished second twice (once winning a wild card spot). They have played in the World Series not once, but twice. Having said that, the past year has not been kind to the Rangers

Their rotation has been decent and Yu Darvish showed he could compete at the highest level of baseball in the world. Neftali Feliz was good until injuries shut down his season in May.

The biggest problem is that not only did they lose arguably their best position player (Josh Hamilton), he then signed with the division rival Angels. Their most valuable player last year by far was Adrian Beltre and while he is under contract for four more years, he’s 33 now and not getting younger.

The Rangers have not gotten better this offseason and the Angels have. Add to that that the Athletics seem poised to overachieve and compete in this division over the next few years and the Rangers have gone from a team one strike away from a World Series title to a team that will be somewhat lucky to finish in the top two of its own division.

13 – Oakland Athletics
81.0-81.0
29.7, 74.3

The only team to win exactly half of their games over the past four years comes in just above the midway mark. This team definitely overachieved last year and the question is was it an aberration or the start of a new run of playoff appearances.

The offensive model they seem to be building is a bit on the hit-and-miss side, with lots of home runs and strikeouts. That approach can lead to very streaky play. However, their pitching has been good over the past several years and the rookies that littered their rotation a year ago are now a year older and (hopefully) smarter.

Most importantly, they are coming off a year in which they finished five games ahead of the Angels and one ahead of the Rangers. While I’d say the Angels improved and are the clear favorites, right now I’d say the Athletics are having a better offseason than the Rangers. Over the long run they can’t compete with the Rangers’ ownership group or their local TV revenue but it’s always possible to have a short run in the sun if the timing all works out and right now, it appears that circumstances are on the A’s side.

14 – Milwaukee Brewers
84.0-78.0
69.5, 26.7

The biggest advantage that the Brewers have going for them (the division they play in) was weakened considerably by the Astros moving to the AL West. They had just one starter throw as many as 150 innings last year and while Ryan Braun is a good person to build a lineup around, it appears that the questions about PED’s won’t go away anytime soon.

If we assume that they won’t compete for the NL Central title (which is a good assumption because they finished 14 games behind the Reds and certainly haven’t done enough this offseason to make up that gap) that means to make it to the playoffs, they have to finish ahead of two of these three teams; the Braves, Cardinals, and Dodgers (based on last year’s results). Not a good recipe for success.

15 – Chicago White Sox
82.8-79.3
51.3, 45.8

The White Sox are a bit of an interesting team. Their percentile ranks indicate they should be in the middle of the pack and their record – 14 games over .500 the past four years combined – backs this up. If Jack Peavy can pitch as he did last year and Chris Sale can build upon last year, they will have a chance to make some noise in the Central again.

An issue that I see is with their offense. Paul Konerko had a very good 2012 campaign but he’s going into his age 37 season and despite his amazing consistency, at some point age will rear its ugly head. Adam Dunn bounced back from his all-time-bad 2011 season with a decent (for him) .201/.333/.468 line with 41 home runs. Which Dunn will show up in 2013? If it’s the 2011 version, they could be sunk early in the season.

Just in case White Sox fans didn’t have enough to worry about, here are four numbers to fret about; 79, 111, 63, and 124. Those are the OPS+ figures for Alex Rios the past four years. He’s had two decent seasons in Chicago but the year that got him shipped out of Toronto and then his second full season in Chicago were terrible. How comfortable would you be when a guy who’s going to be in the middle of your batting order was 37% below league average and 24% above league average the past two seasons? Are you getting the borderline All-Star from 2012 who was worth 4.2 wins above replacement or the 2011 version that was 2.1 wins worse than a AAA replacement player but had a price tag of $12.5 million?

16 – Baltimore Orioles
73.0-89.0
45.4, 0.7

There’s a lot to like about the Orioles but I’m afraid that their peak will be lost due to bad timing in the division. They are ascending when the Red Sox and Yankees appear to be down, which is good. However, the Blue Jays are going for it will even more gusto and the Rays have been consistently good and are already in the rarified air of perennial playoff contenders (at least recently, that’s the case).

As you can see from the percentile ranks, their batting is ok, just below league average, but their pitching is atrocious, barely better than the worst in all of baseball. However, there is cause for optimism. In 2012, the Orioles 3.90 team ERA was the 6th best in the American League and their definite strength was their bullpen, as they had five pitchers who appeared in 50 or more games with ERA’s between 2.28 and 2.64 (accounting for 332.2 innings).

I would expect a certain amount of regression for this team in 2013 especially when you consider that their run differential indicated a record of 82-80. The fact that they did 11 games better was bolstered by their best-in-baseball records in one-run games (29-9) and extra-inning games (16-2). It’s always possible they’ll repeat that performance but statistically speaking, it’s unlikely.

17 – Minnesota Twins
77.5-84.8
47.8, 15.6

This might even be a bit high for the Twins. They are a team of two names that you know (Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau) and 23 other guys that you may or may not recognize. Unfortunately, Justin Morneau has missed 229 games the past four years and is nowhere near the player he was from 2006-08 when he won an MVP and finished 2nd and 20th the other two years.

Joe Mauer has more or less recovered from the injuries that limited him to 82 games in 2011 but the issue remains; how long will he be able to catch for the Twins? I know that he wants to but it’s an incredibly physically demanding position and the likelihood that he’ll be able to stay at catcher throughout his current contract is unlikely. That raises another problem because at $23 million a season and his current level of performance, he’s worth the money as a catcher but not as a first baseman or as a DH.

Most depressing for this team is the pitching staff. Once a strength, they are a shell of what they once were and it’s really not their fault. Brad Radke retired, Johan Santana was traded at what appears just the right time, and not Francisco Liriano is gone after not being able to come back from his own injuries and anchor the rotation.

The future is not bright for the Twins but they are a good franchise with a historically good front office so it’s entirely possible that they’ll be able to turn things around.

18 – Arizona Diamondbacks
77.5-84.5
55.8, 33.3

Most baseball experts think that they did fairly well for themselves this offseason, especially when you consider they gave up two player that were supposed to be franchise cornerstones for another 5+ years in Justin Upton and Chris Young.

However, we come back once again to their division. They are a definite step ahead of the Padres and Rockies (maybe two steps) but they are a definite step or two behind the Dodgers and Giants on the field and perhaps farther behind off the field. If you can’t match a team financially (like the Dodgers) you have to be able to beat them with smarts in the front office and that doesn’t appear to be the case.

In 2012 they went 81-81, ranked 5th in OPS and 9th in ERA. Honestly, I’d look for similar marks in 2013.

19 – Philadelphia Phillies
93.3-68.8
55.4, 81.5

Of the 15 teams with a winning (or .500) record over the past four years, only one ranks below the Phillies. Last year, the Phillies had 3 regulars who had an OPS+ over 100 (i.e. were better than league average hitters). Carlos Ruiz is a 33 year old catcher who has been a solid contributor for four years and took a big step forward last year. The Phillies have him under contract for 2013 at the reasonable rate of $5 million. Hunter Pence is gone. Chase Utley hasn’t played a full season since 2009 after having one of the best five year stretches from 2005-09 in the league. In that stretch, he accumulated 38.6 WAR but in the past three seasons his value has dropped from 5.7 to 3.7 to 2.9. Definitely good production but considering that it’s almost entirely limited by injuries , it’s a disturbing trend.

That’s it. Former MVP Jimmy Rollins was a below average hitter. Ryan Howard was a -1.2 WAR player last year coming back from his Achilles injury but he was only worth 1.1 WAR in 2010 and 0.9 in 2011. He has four years left on his contract extension worth $95 million with either a $23 million team option or a $10 million buyout in 2017.

On the pitching side, Cole Hamels was great and Cliff Lee was good but Roy Halladay wasn’t very good at all. If they want to turn around the downward spiral they’re heading into, I believe it depends on Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard.

Given the division they’re in, the strength of Washington and Atlanta, and the sheer amount of money they owe to Howard, Lee, Halladay, and Hamels, this franchise isn’t in a particularly good looking place right now.

REBUILDING

20 – Pittsburgh Pirates
67.5-94.3
18.1, 22.4

Twenty… straight… years. That’s really all you need to know when it comes to the state of the Pirates. The last time the Pittsburgh Pirates had a winning record was 1992.

Having said that, there are far more desperate situations in baseball right now (hence the reason that nine teams are ranked below the Pirates). Their ascent from losing 105 games (the most during this 20 year stretch) in 2010 to going 79-83 last year has been gradual but significant and to me, it says that there is hope on the horizon. I am always suspicious of a team that makes a sudden improvement. Granted sometimes it can be the sign of good things to come (1990 Braves finished in last place… and then won 14 straight division titles) but more often than not I believe a sudden improvement is followed by a regression to the mean.

However, when there is a period of relatively slow and steady growth in performance, I think it is more sustainable in the long run… as long as nobody does anything to derail it.

I see them finishing in third this coming season behind the Reds and Cardinals but if Andrew McCutchen can avoid the miserable finish he had a year ago, I could see them thinking playoffs within the next few years. If they’re going to do that though, they have to keep improving. Last year they were 11th in the NL in OPS and 8th in ERA. Those are not playoff caliber rankings.

21 – Boston Red Sox
85.8-76.3
87.6, 22.9

The Red Sox were the single biggest train wreck of last season and yet they somehow managed to extract themselves from beneath several crippling contracts and for that, I give their front office a ton of credit.

They still have some good players and several were limited by injuries a year ago. David Ortiz is coming back for two more years after a line of .318/.415/.611 as a 36 year old (wait, what?), Dustin Pedroia is still a solid player, and hopefully Jacoby Ellsbury can come back from a season where he was limited to 74 games and a .271/.313/.370 line that came a year after his .321/.376/.552 MVP-caliber season.

Their rotation is simply a mess right now. Jon Lester struggled last year, so did Clay Buchholz. Josh Beckett is gone, Aaron Cook was bad (and is currently a free agent), and the best news that can come out of last season (in the rotation) is that the Daisuke Matsuzaka experiment is over. It only cost the Red Sox $102 million over six years for a 50-37 record, a 4.52 ERA (and a 1.418 WHIP), and just 8.3 wins above a replacement pitcher.

The good news is they have a clean slate moving forward. They have a relatively new general manager and a new manager. They have young players that, when healthy, can form a core you can build around. Scouts around the league definitely have good things to say about the young players in their farm system. But…

They went 69-93 last year and were a train wreck. In a division with baseball’s biggest superpower (Yankees), one of the league’s best run teams (Rays), a surprise playoff entrant from a year ago (Orioles), and a team that is tired of playing third fiddle for two decades (Blue Jays), the immediate future doesn’t look particularly bright for the Red Sox.

22 – San Diego Padres
78.0-84.0
15.3, 70.4

What does it tell you when a team that plays in arguably the best pitchers park in the league puts up an ERA+ 9% lower than average as the Padres did a year ago?

15 different pitchers started a game for the Padres last year and all but two of them started at least five games. Only two pitchers managed to throw more than Anthony Bass’ 97 innings.

In the lineup, Chase Headley played very well, accumulating 6.0 WAR but he is going to become more and more expensive for the Padres to hold onto. Already his salary increased by more than $5 million this offseason and if he keeps up his current production, it’s just going to go higher. Carlos Quentin played well but was limited to 86 games due to injury.

Last year they won 76 games and finished fourth in the NL West, 10 games behind the Dodgers, 18 games behind the Giants, and 12 games out of a playoff spot. Anyone who thinks they’ve done enough and have enough to overcome those deficits is just wrong. With the Giants winning and the Dodgers new checkbooks, the Padres are competing for third place for the foreseeable future.

23 – Colorado Rockies
78.0-84.0
71.6, 11.2

Look at that last paragraph about the Padres and consider this… they finished 12 games ahead of the Rockies.

The Rockies’ offense should be fine. Carlos Gonzalez is a very good player, Dexter Fowler had a very good year in 2012, and Troy Tulowitzki should return to his pre injury form when he was an MVP candidate.

None of that changes the atrocious state of their pitching staff. Because of Jim Tracy’s unconventional six man rotation and pitch counts on starters, only one starter threw 100 innings, and it was Jeff Francis with 113. Their 5.22 ERA was the worst in the NL – before I go further, here’s why ERA can be misleading and ERA+ is a good metric. The Rockies team ERA was 5.22 while the Padres’ was 4.01. Despite that, the Rockies had a better ERA+ (92 to 91) because of the difference in home ballparks. Last year, Baseball Reference rated Petco Park at 93 for pitchers (under 100 favors pitchers, over 100 favors batters) while Coors Field was rated at 125.

Their pitching staff is terrible. Their lineup might be enough to win them 75-80 games but they’ll go no further than that and it seems like Coors Field is reverting back to the pre-humidor days of causing pitchers nightmares. With the way it’s treating pitchers right now, it’ll be hard to get any pitchers to want to come to the Rockies.

24 – New York Mets
75.0-87.0
35.6, 44.7

Many people are praising the package that the Mets got in return for Cy Young winner RA Dickey. However, I feel fairly confident that that will be a so-so consolation for the fans that actually come to Mets games this year to watch a fourth place team.

Luckily for the Mets, they will not be a last place team in the 2013 version of the NL East… the Marlins made sure of that.

In my mind, the trade of RA Dickey signifies that they are ready to embark upon a rebuilding plan and are getting what they can for their most valuable assets. This really begs the question; how long with David Wright call Queens home?

He’s by far their best player and they aren’t going anywhere fast. Wright is 30 and is coming off the second best season (by WAR) of his career. If there is going to be a time to trade him, now is that time. The team is bad and you’ve just signaled you’re sacrificing the present to save the future by trading Dickey. If there was ever a time to incur the wrath of a fan base by trading the most popular player, now would be that time.

25 – Chicago Cubs
72.5-89.3
36.1, 35.5

What can I say about the Cubs that hasn’t already been said? Alfonso Soriano played decently last year with a .262/.322/.499 line and 32 home runs… but he was paid $18 million and he’s owed another $18 million in 2013 and 2014. He led a lineup that was in the top ten in the NL (out of 16) in just two offensive categories; hit by pitch (9th with 43) and times caught stealing (5th with 45).

Their pitching staff was better than their lineup but that was boosted by Ryan Dempster’s performance which, after he got traded to the Rangers, appears to have been bolstered by the National League and the Central division.

Last year they went 61-101 and I don’t see much better records in their future especially since the one team worse than them is no longer in their division.

26 – Kansas City Royals
68.8-93.3
46.9, 0.0

A lot of people are high on the Royals and with the addition of a bona fide Cy Young contender in James Shields headlining their offseason, it’s easy to see why. However, I’ll believe it when I see it.

The Royals have averaged 68.8 wins the past four years and have the worst team ERA in the entire league. There’s a lot to like about this team and I could even see them sneaking into second place in the AL Central because of the low quality of the division but here’s the problem; if they can’t overtake the Tigers (which I don’t think they can), they’ll be competing with the Orioles, Rangers, Rays, and Angels. Those four teams won 93, 93, 90, and 89 games, respectively, in 2012 and two of them missed the playoffs. For the next several years, I believe it’s going to take a win total in the low to mid 90’s to make the playoffs and Kansas City hasn’t won that many games since they won 92 games in 1989.

Again, I’ll believe it when I see it.

27 – Cleveland Indians
70.5-91.5
39.7, 3.6

Ubaldo Jimenez was supposed to anchor this rotation for years to come (he is only 28 after all). However, since his great 2010 season (buoyed by the tremendous first half and his 15-1 start), he’s been beyond terrible. The past two years, Jimenez is 19-30 with a 5.03 ERA.

This offseason they’ve made some upgrades to their team but after they lost 94 games and posted the worst ERA in the AL and the second worst OPS, two things are assured; they can only go up and they still have a long ways to go.

28 – Seattle Mariners
72.0-90.0
0.0, 64.9

I give the Mariners all the credit in the world for holding onto Felix Hernandez, even if it is going to cost them $175 million. On top of that, they are now done with Chone Figgins as they basically paid him to go away. Considering that he “earned” $36 million for three years in which he hit .227/.302/.283 and was worth 1.6 wins below a replacement player, I’m sure Mariners fans are happy to see him go.

The Mariners are hoping for big seasons from new acquisitions Kendrys Morales and Michael Morse and they are hoping that moving the fences in at Safeco Field will boost everyone’s morale… and offense.

I like the direction of the team but they are in a very good division and their farm system hasn’t produced much in recent years so trading is difficult and luring top free agents is tough because of the terrible hitting reputation (backed up by statistical analysis) that Safeco has. Only time will tell if moving the fences in will help more than it’ll hurt.

They could put together a special season and compete for a playoff spot or they could have a few key injuries and lose 100 games. I was born and raised two hours north of Seattle so this ranking hurts but they have to show me something other than King Felix before I can move them up.

29 – Houston Astros
65.3-96.8
15.2, 17.6

It says a lot when the worst team of the past four years (by won-lost record) and by far the worst team from a year ago (55-107, six games worse than the second worst team) isn’t even the worst team in these rankings.

The one thing the Astros have going for them is they are extraordinarily young. That’s it. They are moving from a decent division to a division with tons of star power and two enormous media markets in Los Angeles and Dallas. They are going to lose a lot in the AL West. I feel very sad when I think about a team that featured a few of my favorite players ever in Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, and Roy Oswalt, and nowadays the best thing I can say about the state of their franchise is they are done paying Carlos Lee his $100 million.

30 – Miami Marlins
77.0-85.0
39.9, 44.8

It’s truly not often that I’m at a loss for words. You can ask just about anyone who knows me and they’ll tell you how difficult it can be to get a word into a conversation with me. However, the Miami Marlins have me at a loss.

They won a World Series in 1997 and then seemingly traded the best pieces away before the champagne was dry. After a few terrible years, their farm system came through and provided a young and dynamic core that won the World Series again in 2003, with a 23 year old Josh Beckett throwing an incredible 2-hit shutout in Yankee Stadium in Game 6 to clinch the series. It’s not a game I’ll easily forget. After the dust settled from that team, again, all the biggest names were gone.

This time was especially egregious because the Marlins roped Miami into building them a $650 million stadium that the Marlins filled with high priced free agents that were supposed to compete with the Phillies and Braves. Unfortunately for everyone, the free agents didn’t quite come through, Josh Johnson again couldn’t stay healthy, and while the Phillies weren’t as good as expected and the Braves were, it was the Nationals that took hold of the division with a grip that they’re threatening not to relinquish any time soon. Punting on the near future, the Marlins dealt every player that was worth anything (except for Giancarlo Stanton) to the Blue Jays this offseason. They will finish last in the NL East this upcoming season and it might take a minor miracle to finish anywhere other than last for the next few years.

I don’t work in the Marlins’ front office and I don’t live in Miami. Maybe the people there have never truly supported the Marlins the way they should. That doesn’t justify the Marlins demanding a new stadium, getting it, and then committing to several years of losing after one bad 69-93 season. If Miami can’t support baseball, the Marlins should have moved.


There you have it, my initial MLB rankings. I’m not sure how often I’ll update them (probably only after a season or a significant even such as an injury or a retirement or a trade) but they will be updated.

Until next time, enjoy the fact that baseball is back once again!

Prop Bets Revisited

Before Super Bowl XLVII, I examined a few prop bets that might be worth taking. How’d I do? Not terribly well… here are the results:

THERE WILL NOT BE A TOUCHDOWN
(+20,000)

This was a supreme longshot and I knew it. If it turned into a kicking contest, I could have increased my money ten times without winning any other bets. Alas, there were more than 0 touchdowns scored… in fact, there were 7.

Bet Result = -5

WHAT COLOR GATORADE/LIQUID WILL BE DUMPED ON THE WINNING COACH?
(RED +750)

If I’m not mistaken, John Harbaugh still hasn’t had a cooler full of ice cold liquid dumped over his head (mostly because champagne usually doesn’t come in coolers the way Gatorade does). I’d love to say that means that I push with my bet but I seriously doubt that’s the way Vegas works.

Bet Result = -5

COLIN KAEPERNICK WILL WIN THE MVP
(+175)

I feel pretty good about this one even though it didn’t pan out. He threw one really bad interception and looked like a deer in headlights at times but overall, for his 10th career start, he played very well. He went 16-28 with 302 yards and threw for one TD in addition to that one interception. He also ran the ball 7 times for 62 yards and a touchdown. If he had managed to sneak a pass to Michael Crabtree on that 4th and five, this would have been in the win column for me.

Bet Result = -5

REFERENCES TO THE HARBOWL, HARBAUGH BOWL, OR SUPERBAUGH
OVER 2.5 (-110)

Overall, CBS had a very straight-laced, professional broadcast of the Super Bowl and I shouldn’t have expected anything else. I didn’t actually count the references but I didn’t hear a single one so I feel safe in saying that CBS didn’t go for the cheap angle on this game and treated it like the momentous occasion that it was (you know… the SUPER BOWL).

I still think that if Fox was broadcasting it, the over/under would have been at a dozen and I still would have taken the over.

Bet Result = -20

WILL THERE BE A DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS TOUCHDOWN?
NO (-200)

Ouch, Jacoby Jones… ouch. Everyone knows when you’re that deep you take a knee. Oh well, it was a great play.

Bet Result = -20

WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 4TH DOWN CONVERSION?
YES (-250)

There were three 4th down “attempts” in the Super Bowl and none of the three were successful. I really figured that one of the following scenarios would play out:

- A 4th and short around the 40 yard line. A 57 yard field goal or a short yardage play with two very good running games? Seems like an easy decision – never happened.

- Someone trying to be clever. This actually did happen in the form of a fake field goal on 4th and 9 deep in 49ers territory. Were it not for a great play by Patrick Willis getting in Justin Tucker’s way (while being blocked), this would have pushed me into the win column on this bet.

- Desperation. I figured that one team would be driving late in the game with the chance to win. That part came true. However, I figured a 4th down play would occur at midfield, not at the 5 yard line. At midfield, the defense has to defend 3,180 square yards of territory. From the five yard line, that number shrinks to 795, exactly one fourth the space. I remember seeing a replay of one of the plays from the five when Kaepernick rolled out to his right and threw incomplete to Crabtree; the endzone was a mass of white jerseys and every single helmet was looking right at him. Very difficult circumstances in which to gain five yards.

So between the Ravens’ fake field goal, the Ravens’ goal line stand, and the Ravens’ decision to give the 49ers 2 points, I came up just short on this one.

Bet Result = -15

WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 2 POINT CONVERSION?
NO (-500)

I guess I can thank Ed Reed being offsides and the refs not calling it. Oh well, a win is a win. For whatever reason, I felt that Jim Harbaugh got a little timid in the Super Bowl while John Harbaugh might have gotten more aggressive. I felt like the fake field goal put Jim on his heels and set the tone for the rest of the game.

Bet Result = +4 (this is my profit and does not include the actual bet)

JOE FLACCO WILL BE THE MVP
(+225)

Flacco went 22-33 for 287 yards and threw three touchdowns but beyond that, he just seemed to be in control. When the 49ers started to come back after the power outage, Flacco never panicked and while he only led the Ravens to 6 second half points (don’t forget that he had nothing to do with the first 7 points of the second half), he made some critical throws that prolonged drives and kept the surging 49ers offense off the field. He deserves every bit of this award. Yes, Jacoby Jones had a great game in the few touches he had and Anquan Boldin made some spectacular catches at huge moments but the constant was Flacco throwing the ball.

When you factor in the fact that Ray Rice carried the ball 20 times for 59 yards and fumbled at a key moment, Flacco’s performance becomes even more important.

Bet Result = +11.25

WILL THERE BE A SAFETY?
YES (+900)

This was the cherry on top of my picks and at the time it happened, I didn’t even realize it; I didn’t remember laying a bet on a safety. Thinking of the strategy that went into that play, there were many different things that the Ravens could have done and it’d be hard to find fault with any of them.

However, the decision to take a safety was not the masterful stroke. The decision to have punter Sam Koch run around for a while wasn’t it either. It was his instructions to his offensive line, who did everything but tackle the 49ers punt rush team. If they don’t call a penalty, then Koch runs around and takes 8 seconds off the clock.

If they did call a penalty though, there are two possible outcomes. If the penalty occurred outside the endzone, the 49ers would have to decline since accepting it would mean the Ravens get to line up to punt again with 4 seconds on the clock. Declining the penalty makes the safety stand up. If the penalty occurred in the endzone, then it would be a safety. Holding is not a penalty that causes a stoppage of the clock so it still would have wound until Koch stepped out of the endzone.

In other words, blatantly committing holding on every single 49ers rusher had two end results. Re-punting from the 4 yard line with 4 seconds left or a safety with 4 seconds left. It would have been virtually impossible for the Ravens to lose unless Koch fumbled the snap and it didn’t squirt out the back of the endzone.

In a nutshell, this was a former special teams’ coach (John Harbaugh) who clearly dotted every “i” and crossed every “t” for the single most important play of the game.

Bet Result = +45


NET RESULTS

All told, I wagered 100 simoleons on nine different wagers varying in amount from 5 up to 20. I got only three correct but considering that one of them paid off to the tune of 9:1, I actually ended up losing just 9.75 simoleons. For the first 59 minutes and 56 seconds of a 60 minute game, it looked very much like I was going to lose well over half of the money I put into this thought exercise but the longshot on a safety paid off.

I hope you didn’t lose too much wagering on the Super Bowl and I certainly hope you didn’t lose anything following the fake bets I placed in my previous post. Over the next few weeks I’m going to write one more time about my re-thought power rankings in the NFL and then I’ll come out with my first MLB power rankings heading into the 2013 season.

Until then, enjoy the NBA… wait, that doesn’t sound right…

Until then, enjoy the NHL… that’s even worse…

Until then, go hug your loved ones.