Prop Bets Revisited

Before Super Bowl XLVII, I examined a few prop bets that might be worth taking. How’d I do? Not terribly well… here are the results:

THERE WILL NOT BE A TOUCHDOWN
(+20,000)

This was a supreme longshot and I knew it. If it turned into a kicking contest, I could have increased my money ten times without winning any other bets. Alas, there were more than 0 touchdowns scored… in fact, there were 7.

Bet Result = -5

WHAT COLOR GATORADE/LIQUID WILL BE DUMPED ON THE WINNING COACH?
(RED +750)

If I’m not mistaken, John Harbaugh still hasn’t had a cooler full of ice cold liquid dumped over his head (mostly because champagne usually doesn’t come in coolers the way Gatorade does). I’d love to say that means that I push with my bet but I seriously doubt that’s the way Vegas works.

Bet Result = -5

COLIN KAEPERNICK WILL WIN THE MVP
(+175)

I feel pretty good about this one even though it didn’t pan out. He threw one really bad interception and looked like a deer in headlights at times but overall, for his 10th career start, he played very well. He went 16-28 with 302 yards and threw for one TD in addition to that one interception. He also ran the ball 7 times for 62 yards and a touchdown. If he had managed to sneak a pass to Michael Crabtree on that 4th and five, this would have been in the win column for me.

Bet Result = -5

REFERENCES TO THE HARBOWL, HARBAUGH BOWL, OR SUPERBAUGH
OVER 2.5 (-110)

Overall, CBS had a very straight-laced, professional broadcast of the Super Bowl and I shouldn’t have expected anything else. I didn’t actually count the references but I didn’t hear a single one so I feel safe in saying that CBS didn’t go for the cheap angle on this game and treated it like the momentous occasion that it was (you know… the SUPER BOWL).

I still think that if Fox was broadcasting it, the over/under would have been at a dozen and I still would have taken the over.

Bet Result = -20

WILL THERE BE A DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS TOUCHDOWN?
NO (-200)

Ouch, Jacoby Jones… ouch. Everyone knows when you’re that deep you take a knee. Oh well, it was a great play.

Bet Result = -20

WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 4TH DOWN CONVERSION?
YES (-250)

There were three 4th down “attempts” in the Super Bowl and none of the three were successful. I really figured that one of the following scenarios would play out:

- A 4th and short around the 40 yard line. A 57 yard field goal or a short yardage play with two very good running games? Seems like an easy decision – never happened.

- Someone trying to be clever. This actually did happen in the form of a fake field goal on 4th and 9 deep in 49ers territory. Were it not for a great play by Patrick Willis getting in Justin Tucker’s way (while being blocked), this would have pushed me into the win column on this bet.

- Desperation. I figured that one team would be driving late in the game with the chance to win. That part came true. However, I figured a 4th down play would occur at midfield, not at the 5 yard line. At midfield, the defense has to defend 3,180 square yards of territory. From the five yard line, that number shrinks to 795, exactly one fourth the space. I remember seeing a replay of one of the plays from the five when Kaepernick rolled out to his right and threw incomplete to Crabtree; the endzone was a mass of white jerseys and every single helmet was looking right at him. Very difficult circumstances in which to gain five yards.

So between the Ravens’ fake field goal, the Ravens’ goal line stand, and the Ravens’ decision to give the 49ers 2 points, I came up just short on this one.

Bet Result = -15

WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 2 POINT CONVERSION?
NO (-500)

I guess I can thank Ed Reed being offsides and the refs not calling it. Oh well, a win is a win. For whatever reason, I felt that Jim Harbaugh got a little timid in the Super Bowl while John Harbaugh might have gotten more aggressive. I felt like the fake field goal put Jim on his heels and set the tone for the rest of the game.

Bet Result = +4 (this is my profit and does not include the actual bet)

JOE FLACCO WILL BE THE MVP
(+225)

Flacco went 22-33 for 287 yards and threw three touchdowns but beyond that, he just seemed to be in control. When the 49ers started to come back after the power outage, Flacco never panicked and while he only led the Ravens to 6 second half points (don’t forget that he had nothing to do with the first 7 points of the second half), he made some critical throws that prolonged drives and kept the surging 49ers offense off the field. He deserves every bit of this award. Yes, Jacoby Jones had a great game in the few touches he had and Anquan Boldin made some spectacular catches at huge moments but the constant was Flacco throwing the ball.

When you factor in the fact that Ray Rice carried the ball 20 times for 59 yards and fumbled at a key moment, Flacco’s performance becomes even more important.

Bet Result = +11.25

WILL THERE BE A SAFETY?
YES (+900)

This was the cherry on top of my picks and at the time it happened, I didn’t even realize it; I didn’t remember laying a bet on a safety. Thinking of the strategy that went into that play, there were many different things that the Ravens could have done and it’d be hard to find fault with any of them.

However, the decision to take a safety was not the masterful stroke. The decision to have punter Sam Koch run around for a while wasn’t it either. It was his instructions to his offensive line, who did everything but tackle the 49ers punt rush team. If they don’t call a penalty, then Koch runs around and takes 8 seconds off the clock.

If they did call a penalty though, there are two possible outcomes. If the penalty occurred outside the endzone, the 49ers would have to decline since accepting it would mean the Ravens get to line up to punt again with 4 seconds on the clock. Declining the penalty makes the safety stand up. If the penalty occurred in the endzone, then it would be a safety. Holding is not a penalty that causes a stoppage of the clock so it still would have wound until Koch stepped out of the endzone.

In other words, blatantly committing holding on every single 49ers rusher had two end results. Re-punting from the 4 yard line with 4 seconds left or a safety with 4 seconds left. It would have been virtually impossible for the Ravens to lose unless Koch fumbled the snap and it didn’t squirt out the back of the endzone.

In a nutshell, this was a former special teams’ coach (John Harbaugh) who clearly dotted every “i” and crossed every “t” for the single most important play of the game.

Bet Result = +45


NET RESULTS

All told, I wagered 100 simoleons on nine different wagers varying in amount from 5 up to 20. I got only three correct but considering that one of them paid off to the tune of 9:1, I actually ended up losing just 9.75 simoleons. For the first 59 minutes and 56 seconds of a 60 minute game, it looked very much like I was going to lose well over half of the money I put into this thought exercise but the longshot on a safety paid off.

I hope you didn’t lose too much wagering on the Super Bowl and I certainly hope you didn’t lose anything following the fake bets I placed in my previous post. Over the next few weeks I’m going to write one more time about my re-thought power rankings in the NFL and then I’ll come out with my first MLB power rankings heading into the 2013 season.

Until then, enjoy the NBA… wait, that doesn’t sound right…

Until then, enjoy the NHL… that’s even worse…

Until then, go hug your loved ones.