Before I begin, please forgive me; brevity has never been my strong suit...
Before we delve too deep, let’s get some background. In the NBA and the NHL, 16 of 30 teams make the playoffs every year (53.3%). In the NFL, 12 of 32 teams makes the playoffs (37.5%) and in Major League Baseball, only 8 teams every year get to go to the postseason, or just 26.7% of the teams in the league. For a very long time, only the best team from each league made it to the World Series and in 1908 when the Cubs last won a World Series, choosing one out of eight teams to represent each league didn’t seem too unreasonable. After all, they did play 155-158 games so theoretically the best team would have won the most games.
Over the next 60 years, only four teams were added but the playoff format remained the same with only two of twenty teams playing in the postseason in 1968. Four teams were added for the 1969 season (the Kansas City Royals, Seattle Pilots, Montreal Expos, and the San Diego Padres) and the number of playoff teams doubled with the addition of the League Championship Series.
Continued expansion and division realignment has led us to where we are today with three division champions and one wildcard team from each league. Does it really need to be changed?
All across sports, when it comes to tournaments or playoff systems, they are structured to give the best teams an advantage and to give them the best chance to win the tournament out of all the teams involved. In the case of the NFL, this means giving the top two teams from each conference a week off to rest up while the lower ranked teams duke it out in the first round. In the NBA this means giving the better team more home games since crowd noise in such a small space can cause confusion for the road team.
Is there really that much of a home field advantage in baseball? Well, yes and no. First of all, every baseball field is physically different. Some have acres of foul territory and some have very little; some have a flag pole in the field of play along with a little hill while others have a 37 foot tall fence. These little differences help the home team because their players are more adept at adjusting to those little quirks than the visiting players. However, the vast majority of communication in baseball is nonverbal. Quarterbacks call plays and then call out audibles before the snap and point guards call out plays as they come down the court. Catchers use certain numbers of fingers to indicate pitches. Base coaches use sometimes comical sequences of touching certain body parts or making certain gestures to tell the batter or baserunner to do something in particular. Therefore, crowd noise isn’t nearly as big a factor in baseball as it is in other sports.
For the sake of argument though, when it comes to playoff baseball, the teams that make it to the playoffs are solid teams that aren’t likely to be thrown off by a raucous stadium and this reduces the home field advantage even further.
THE NUMBERS
In the wildcard era, the team with the best overall record entering the playoffs has won the World Series just twice; the 1998 New York Yankees (114-48) and the 2009 New York Yankees (103-59). It should be noted that the 2007 Boston Red Sox are not listed because while they did tie with the Cleveland Indians for the league’s best record at 96-66, the Indians were given home field advantage in that series because due to tiebreakers, they were the top overall seed. Even if we were to expand the sample to the teams with one of the two best records in that particular year, that only adds three more teams (1995 Atlanta Braves, 2005 Chicago White Sox, and the 2007 Boston Red Sox). So in fifteen years, only one third of the championships have been won by a team that was in the top two in the league in wins.
Over the same time period, the top overall seed has won the Super Bowl just three times but when you include the top two, that number jumps to ten teams. Also, the NFL does a much better job of protecting its top seeds; of the thirty teams to play in the Super Bowl in the past fifteen years, 22 of them had a first round bye, meaning they would have to play at very most one road game to get to the Super Bowl.
The same trend can be found in the NBA where one of the top two seeds in each conference has made the finals 24 times in the past 15 years, including more than half (16 out of 30) of the number one seeds.
The dichotomy is obvious but the real question is; is it a problem?
I don’t necessarily think that it’s a problem; I just think that unlike some of the other professional sports, there is relatively little incentive to win your division once you have a playoff berth sewn up. A perfect example of this is how the Yankees stumbled down the stretch this year and appeared to put little stock in winning the AL East and sure enough, the Rays played slightly better at the end of the season and won the division. However, the method to the madness was revealed in a dominant first round sweep of the Twins by the Yankees. Manager Joe Girardi used September to line his team up for the playoffs and though it didn’t work this year, he took similar steps last year and helped bring home the 27th World Series title in Yankees history.
In a nutshell, what I want to see is the all-or-nothing approach that you see week in and week out in the NFL. For instance, in 2004, the Philadelphia Eagles finished the season 13-3 and were the NFC’s top seed in the playoffs. That year, Terrell Owens gave the team a dynamic threat at wide receiver that they had been missing but in the middle of the season he went down with a fractured leg. As it turned out, he didn’t play again until the Super Bowl but let’s play a little what if.
What if he had been injured in November instead of December? Potentially, the Eagles would not have gone 13-3 (maybe 11-5) and then they would have been on the cusp of playing in the wildcard round or getting a bye. There would be extra incentive for them to play hard and win their last game or two to secure that first round bye so when the playoffs do start for them, they are as close to full strength as possible.
Now, admittedly, injuries are a much bigger concern in football than in baseball but the same logic can apply. How much would the Texas Rangers have welcomed a first round bye so MVP candidate Josh Hamilton could rest his ailing ribs? As it turned out, in the first round they won despite his paltry contribution and when he started feeling better, he made the Yankees pitchers cry.
THE SOLUTION
I’m sure that all of you were wondering if I would actually get around to suggesting a different format than what we have currently. There already are reports that the players union is open to expansion of the playoffs but given Commissioner Selig’s pace of doing business if we are to see any expansion, it would most like be shifting the first round from five game series to seven game series. Personally, all I really think about that is that it seems to be a fairly transparent ploy for the owners to sell tickets for two additional playoff games every year.
My suggestion is far bolder.
While the NFL is not my favorite league (far from it given their inactivity on issues such as concussions) and football is not my favorite sport, their playoff format is by far my favorite so, if you’ll indulge me, I will show you what it would look like if baseball adopted the NFL’s playoff format.
Before I get too deep into it, this is what I would suggest. Two teams in each league get a bye in the first round. Teams three through six would play a three game series with the games scheduled for three consecutive days. For all that moaning I hear already, the average baseball season is played in roughly 185 days and they play 162 games; they play three straight days with a plane ride in the middle all the time.
The winners of those series would then enter the final eight teams and from there, it would be the same as what we have with a five game “second round”, a seven game LCS, and a seven game World Series.
Now how much would that actually change? It depends. Would it have altered the 1998 Yankees crash course with history after a 114 win regular season? Probably not. Would it have altered the 2001 Mariners crash course off a cliff after a 116 win regular season? Potentially.
What it would really do is make it hard for a wildcard team to win it all. For the record, a wildcard team has made it to the World Series 9 times and won it all 4 times. They are:
1997 Marlins (Won)
2000 Mets
2002 Giants
2002 Angels (Won)
2003 Marlins (Won)
2004 Red Sox (Won)
2005 Astros
2006 Tigers
2007 Rockies
Would these teams have made it to the World Series with an extra three games on the front end of their postseason schedule? Of those nine teams, only one failed to win 90 games (the 2005 Astros went 89-73) while two of them (2002 Angels with 99 and 2004 Red Sox with 98) nearly won 100 games. So we’re not talking about the weaklings that got into the playoffs by a technicality. For many of these teams, they caught lightning in a bottle and in all likelihood, three extra games wouldn’t have made a difference. The 2007 Rockies won an unbelievable 21 of 22 games to make the playoffs and get to the World Series before being swept by the Red Sox. Could that just as easily have been 24 of 25? Absolutely. More likely is that they get to the World Series while losing a game here or there but it’s far from impossible.
Now, the obvious question is this: why do we need to change the playoff format at all? Well, first answer me this; what do the following teams all have in common?
1997 New York Mets (88-74)
1997 Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74)
2000 Cleveland Indians (90-72)
2003 Seattle Mariners (93-69)
2005 Philadelphia Phillies (88-74)
2005 Florida Marlins (83-79)
2005 New York Mets (83-79)
2006 Philadelphia Phillies (85-77)
2007 San Diego Padres (89-74)
2007 New York Mets (88-74)
2008 New York Mets (89-73)
2008 Houston Astros (86-75)
2008 St. Louis Cardinals (86-76)
2009 Texas Rangers (87-75)
Well, those 14 teams all won between 83 and 93 games (averaging 87.4) but the kicker is that none of those teams made the playoffs. It’s not terrible unusual for a team whose win total is in the 80’s to miss the playoffs but this list is special. They all missed the playoffs while a team in their league made the playoffs with a worse record. Here is a list of the offending teams:
1997 Houston Astros (84-78)
2000 New York Yankees (87-74)
2003 Minnesota Twins (90-72)
2005 San Diego Padres (82-80)
2006 St. Louis Cardinals (83-78)
2007 Chicago Cubs (85-77)
2008 Los Angeles Dodgers (84-78)
2009 Minnesota Twins (87-76 due to the tiebreaker. Their regular season record was 86-76)
In other words, the 14 teams that I mentioned got the short end of the stick because they were in the wrong division. It should also be noted that two of the eight teams above that didn’t have one of the four best records in their league that year went on to win the World Series.
Yes, baseball’s postseason is exclusive and not everybody can come. I don’t, however, see the problem with letting a few more teams in that are deserving. It’s possible that some day a team that has a sub .500 record could get into the playoffs but that’s always a possibility. At the time of the strike in 1994, the Texas Rangers were leading the American League West with a record of 52-62 and would have had to play .604 baseball the rest of the season just to break even (and only two teams played that well during the season, the New York Yankees and the Montreal Expos). So even with the current format it’s always possible for a team to make the playoffs despite a sub-.500 record. In fact, under my system, only one team in the past 15 years (the 1997 Chicago White Sox) would have made it in with a record below .500 (80-81) and the additional teams had an average record of 87.5-74.5, hardly the dregs of the league. 11 of those teams even managed to win 90 games and still didn’t make the playoffs.
My argument is not based on bad teams get into the playoffs while good teams are left home. My argument is much more about protecting the top teams from the regular season. I also understand that there is a big difference between building a team to do well in a 162 game regular season and a team that is built to do well in 5 or 7 game series and while my format may be a little unfair to the latter, it would provide an advantage for the teams that actually played better in the regular season.
MONEY
After all, it really does all come down to this factor. The most potential playoff games under the current format is 41 (if every series were to go the distance although we all know how likely that is). This year so far there have been 29 games with 2-5 more games, depending on how much the Rangers feel like playing in the World Series. Under my format, 8-12 games would be added and only four days would need to be added to the schedule. Those aren’t regular season games either with their $4 nosebleed seats; those are playoff games where many people are so desperate to get their hands on playoff tickets that the cheap seats will sell for many times face value.
CONCLUSION
The only losers in my plan are the purists who don’t want to see playoff baseball to be diluted too much. While I understand their concern (I have long thought that the NBA lets far too many teams into the playoffs) I think the overall excitement outweighs the potential dilution. If my plan had been put into effect in 1995 instead of the current format, 23 different teams would have made the playoffs just through the expanded wildcard format and of the other 7 teams, 5 of them made the playoffs either as the first wildcard or as a division winner. In other words, 28 out of 30 teams would have made the playoffs in the past 14 years (I excluded 1995 due to its shortened nature).
Instead, the Toronto Blue Jays haven’t made the playoffs since 1993 (they would have qualified in 1998, 1999, and 2003 under my system). Instead of making the playoffs in both 1996 and 2002, the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals haven’t been to the postseason since 1981.
All you have to do to see the effect of a playoff run is look at the Montreal Expos. Many experts and former players say that they would have been the favorite to win the 1994 World Series and when the season ended, they had the best record (74-40, or 105-57 prorated to a full season). If they had won the World Series, they would have had the revenue to keep their young core of brilliant players together and could have had a shot at a dynasty. Instead, the team fell apart because they didn’t have the money to keep them all together. After 10 more years and a .458 winning percentage, fans lost enough interest that the team packed up and moved to Washington, D.C. How would things have been different if two of those seasons had been playoff years?
Unfortunately, we’ll never know. Having lived in Washington (state) through the 90’s, I know full well what the city, state, and region did starting in 1995. I challenge you to find a fan base that was more rabid than during the playoff run in 1995. I understand that it was aided by fair weather fans but just look at what had happened when a team with a losing history caught fire and went to the playoffs. I don’t think it’s an understatement to say that the 1995 season saved baseball in Seattle.
What other franchises need saving?
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
World Series Preview
Six of the seven series are in the books for the 2010 postseason and through some fluke of luck, I’m still batting .500. The Rays were the only team to defy my predictions in the division series and then both the Yankees and Phillies, looking to provide the first World Series rematch in back-to-back years since 1977 and 1978 when the Yankees beat the Dodgers 4-2 in both years, fell flat in their respective LCS, managing just two wins.
So, it is time to admit that yes, after years of frustrations and records propped up by playing in one of the weakest divisions in baseball, the Rangers are for real. It can all be traced back to July 9th when they were bold and daring and audacious and said that no matter how good they were (50-36, 4.5 games ahead of second place) they could be better. That was the day that they acquired former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee from the last place Seattle Mariners and despite struggling their way to a 90-72 regular season record, they had all the pieces in place for a deep postseason run; I just didn’t believe in them.
On the other side of things, the San Francisco Giants needed all 162 games to secure their playoff spot, beating the Padres on the last day of the regular season to avoid a three way tie between them, the Padres, and the Braves for just two playoff spots. Their starting pitching carried them into the playoffs with an otherworldly September and much like in the American League, I thought their starters would do well but I got blinded by the stars in the LCS.
BY THE NUMBERS
In the division series, Texas hit .253/.286/.437 and outscored the Rays 21-13. In the LCS, those numbers jumped to .304/.378/.512 and 38-19, respectively, outscoring the Yankees by more than any single team has ever outscored them in a single series. How’s that for making playoff history?
While Tommy Hunter and CJ Lewis struggled a bit against the Yankees (0-1 in three games, 11 ER in 15.1 innings), Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis were more than enough to pick up the slack (3-0, 3 ER, 26 K in 21.2 innings) and history has shown time and time again that two reliable starters can certainly be enough to win a 7 game series.
After an abysmal batting line in the DS (.212/.288/.295) the Giants didn’t do much better in the LCS, though there was a definite improvement (.244/.301/.353) and considering they were going against a much more formidable staff in the LCS than the DS, this difference becomes very significant. The oddest thing about the Giants so far this postseason is despite their 7-3 record, they have managed to barely outscore their opponents by a total score of 30-29 (by contrast, the Rangers are 7-4 and have a run differential of 59-32). So the obvious question surrounding the Giants is will they be able to score enough runs and hold the Rangers to few enough runs to get four more wins?
X-FACTOR
For the Giants, I could say their entire offense is the x-factor. Their pitching staff will hold the Rangers to a winnable number of runs in at least four games of this series and then the only question is whether or not their offense can put up more runs.
Since the spotlight is on, I’m going to go with Cody Ross. So far this postseason, he is 11-34 (.324/.395/.794 slash line) but more importantly, he has 4 of San Francisco’s 6 home runs so far this October. Home runs are very valuable in the postseason because it is instant offense and doesn’t require any more than one swing of the bat to put runs on the board. Someone needs to provide a dangerous bat in the lineup for the Giants and so far it’s been Ross.
For the Rangers, they have two x-factors and they are the two biggest names on the team. First of all is Josh Hamilton. He was pretty much invisible in the DS against the Rays and in my mind it was logical to conclude that if he batted similarly against the Yankees, the Rangers had no chance of making it this far. All he did in the LCS was go 7-20 (.350/.536/1.000 slash line) with 4 home runs, 7 RBI, and 8 walks. When he swings the bat, it doesn’t even look like he hits the ball well and the next thing you know, fans are fighting over the souvenir. This lineup is better when he is hitting well and if he hits wells against the Giants, they are in trouble.
The other x-factor for the Rangers is the presence that looms over everything: Cliff Lee. So far this postseason, his numbers have been amazing. In three starts (all wins), he has pitched 24 innings, allowed 2 runs on 13 hits, walked 1 and struck out 34. In his postseason career, he is 7-0 with an ERA of 1.26 (in 64.1 innings) and he’s struck out 64 while walking only 7 and allowing just one home run. In last year’s World Series against a potent Yankees lineup, he was 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA which is the highest ERA he’s ever had in a single postseason series.
Will he pitch three times on short rest? My guess is no. He is, however, lined up to pitch game 1 in San Francisco and then potentially game 5 back in Texas. The good news for Rangers fans is if he does that, he’ll be on three day’s rest for either a start or a relief appearance in game 7 and while the Giants players and coaches will never say that scares them, they can’t be looking forward to facing him that many times. It’s possible that Bochy manages more aggressively in the first few games to try and minimize Lee’s impact similar to last year when Lee pitched game 5 already down 3-1 to the Yankees.
I know that managers don’t like to ever concede games, especially when there are only 7 and it’s the World Series but given the run that Lee is on, I almost wonder if the wisest course of action would be to start someone other than Lincecum against him, thus maximizing the chances that you win the games that Lee is not starting. Probably not the best move for clubhouse morale but interesting food for thought.
THE VERDICT
As far as I can tell, the Rangers have the edge in just about every way except home field advantage. Their offense is more potent, their defense is comparable as is their pitching staff. To me, they have a bigger chip on their shoulder and have more momentum coming into this series. But instead of relying on such vague subjective bits and pieces, I’m going to through this one out there.
In the wildcard era (1995 onward), there has only been one World Series matching teams whose regular season records were within 3 games of each other (the Giants were 92-70 while the Rangers were 90-72). In that series, the Diamondbacks (92-70) beat the Yankees (95-67) in seven games. In fact, in the 15 World Series since the advent of the wildcard, the team with fewer regular season wins has won 9 times and lost just 6.
There you have it. After 47 years of frustration, the Texas Rangers will win the World Series.
RANGERS 4, GIANTS 2
So, it is time to admit that yes, after years of frustrations and records propped up by playing in one of the weakest divisions in baseball, the Rangers are for real. It can all be traced back to July 9th when they were bold and daring and audacious and said that no matter how good they were (50-36, 4.5 games ahead of second place) they could be better. That was the day that they acquired former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee from the last place Seattle Mariners and despite struggling their way to a 90-72 regular season record, they had all the pieces in place for a deep postseason run; I just didn’t believe in them.
On the other side of things, the San Francisco Giants needed all 162 games to secure their playoff spot, beating the Padres on the last day of the regular season to avoid a three way tie between them, the Padres, and the Braves for just two playoff spots. Their starting pitching carried them into the playoffs with an otherworldly September and much like in the American League, I thought their starters would do well but I got blinded by the stars in the LCS.
BY THE NUMBERS
In the division series, Texas hit .253/.286/.437 and outscored the Rays 21-13. In the LCS, those numbers jumped to .304/.378/.512 and 38-19, respectively, outscoring the Yankees by more than any single team has ever outscored them in a single series. How’s that for making playoff history?
While Tommy Hunter and CJ Lewis struggled a bit against the Yankees (0-1 in three games, 11 ER in 15.1 innings), Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis were more than enough to pick up the slack (3-0, 3 ER, 26 K in 21.2 innings) and history has shown time and time again that two reliable starters can certainly be enough to win a 7 game series.
After an abysmal batting line in the DS (.212/.288/.295) the Giants didn’t do much better in the LCS, though there was a definite improvement (.244/.301/.353) and considering they were going against a much more formidable staff in the LCS than the DS, this difference becomes very significant. The oddest thing about the Giants so far this postseason is despite their 7-3 record, they have managed to barely outscore their opponents by a total score of 30-29 (by contrast, the Rangers are 7-4 and have a run differential of 59-32). So the obvious question surrounding the Giants is will they be able to score enough runs and hold the Rangers to few enough runs to get four more wins?
X-FACTOR
For the Giants, I could say their entire offense is the x-factor. Their pitching staff will hold the Rangers to a winnable number of runs in at least four games of this series and then the only question is whether or not their offense can put up more runs.
Since the spotlight is on, I’m going to go with Cody Ross. So far this postseason, he is 11-34 (.324/.395/.794 slash line) but more importantly, he has 4 of San Francisco’s 6 home runs so far this October. Home runs are very valuable in the postseason because it is instant offense and doesn’t require any more than one swing of the bat to put runs on the board. Someone needs to provide a dangerous bat in the lineup for the Giants and so far it’s been Ross.
For the Rangers, they have two x-factors and they are the two biggest names on the team. First of all is Josh Hamilton. He was pretty much invisible in the DS against the Rays and in my mind it was logical to conclude that if he batted similarly against the Yankees, the Rangers had no chance of making it this far. All he did in the LCS was go 7-20 (.350/.536/1.000 slash line) with 4 home runs, 7 RBI, and 8 walks. When he swings the bat, it doesn’t even look like he hits the ball well and the next thing you know, fans are fighting over the souvenir. This lineup is better when he is hitting well and if he hits wells against the Giants, they are in trouble.
The other x-factor for the Rangers is the presence that looms over everything: Cliff Lee. So far this postseason, his numbers have been amazing. In three starts (all wins), he has pitched 24 innings, allowed 2 runs on 13 hits, walked 1 and struck out 34. In his postseason career, he is 7-0 with an ERA of 1.26 (in 64.1 innings) and he’s struck out 64 while walking only 7 and allowing just one home run. In last year’s World Series against a potent Yankees lineup, he was 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA which is the highest ERA he’s ever had in a single postseason series.
Will he pitch three times on short rest? My guess is no. He is, however, lined up to pitch game 1 in San Francisco and then potentially game 5 back in Texas. The good news for Rangers fans is if he does that, he’ll be on three day’s rest for either a start or a relief appearance in game 7 and while the Giants players and coaches will never say that scares them, they can’t be looking forward to facing him that many times. It’s possible that Bochy manages more aggressively in the first few games to try and minimize Lee’s impact similar to last year when Lee pitched game 5 already down 3-1 to the Yankees.
I know that managers don’t like to ever concede games, especially when there are only 7 and it’s the World Series but given the run that Lee is on, I almost wonder if the wisest course of action would be to start someone other than Lincecum against him, thus maximizing the chances that you win the games that Lee is not starting. Probably not the best move for clubhouse morale but interesting food for thought.
THE VERDICT
As far as I can tell, the Rangers have the edge in just about every way except home field advantage. Their offense is more potent, their defense is comparable as is their pitching staff. To me, they have a bigger chip on their shoulder and have more momentum coming into this series. But instead of relying on such vague subjective bits and pieces, I’m going to through this one out there.
In the wildcard era (1995 onward), there has only been one World Series matching teams whose regular season records were within 3 games of each other (the Giants were 92-70 while the Rangers were 90-72). In that series, the Diamondbacks (92-70) beat the Yankees (95-67) in seven games. In fact, in the 15 World Series since the advent of the wildcard, the team with fewer regular season wins has won 9 times and lost just 6.
There you have it. After 47 years of frustration, the Texas Rangers will win the World Series.
RANGERS 4, GIANTS 2
Thursday, October 14, 2010
NLCS Preview
I am happy to report that while the Rays and Twins let me down in the American League, both the Giants and Phillies made my predictions come true in the National League. In fact, the only thing that kept me from nailing this prediction right on the head is that I thought the Reds would scratch out one game and both the Phillies and Giants would win their series by 3-1 margins. Well, we’ll call that a glancing blow.
This series is going to be all about pitching and for people who love a good 1-0 game, this is going to be a dream come true. The NLCS will match up quite possibly two of the hottest rotations entering the playoffs that baseball has seen in a very long time and runs will be at such a premium that in my opinion, the advantage has to slide in favor of the more veteran lineup that might be able to use their experience to scratch out an extra run or two here and there.
BY THE NUMBERS
Both of their offenses were abysmal in the division series with the Giants posting a slash line of .212/.288/.295 while the Phillies managed a line of .212/.301/.273. At first glance, to think that these two teams went a combined 6-1 is almost hard to believe until you look at what their pitchers were able to do:
Giants – .175/.214/.263
Phillies – .124/.160/.213
Offensively, neither team has any single player that is really trending upward except for the rookie sensation Buster Posey, the Giants catcher who did his best Joe Mauer impression this year with a .305/.357/.505 slash line, 18 home runs, and 67 RBI in 108 games. He continued his brilliant year by going 6-16 in the division series against the Braves but was held with just one double and without an RBI.
Other than Posey, the highest batting average for a player that played every game in their respective series was Cody Ross for the Giants (4-14, .286) and Chase Utley for the Phillies (3-11, .273). These offenses are hardly performing at their peak efficiency and again, I have to say that I believe that favors that team that underachieved more relative to the regular season and that would be the Phillies.
Runs will again be at a premium because the pitching in both division series by these two teams was nothing short of superb. The Giants allowed 9 runs in 4 games and had a team ERA of 1.66 (due to two unearned runs). Continuing their September trend, their starters were ridiculous, pitching 29.0 innings and allowing just 3 earned runs (0.93 ERA) while allowing 17 hits with a K:BB ratio of 36:5. In their four games, their starters had the following Game Scores:
Lincecum - 96
Cain – 62
Sanchez – 80
Bumgarner – 56
In short, the Yankees and Rangers would be truly ecstatic to get a GS of 56 from their number four starters.
On the Phillies side of things, believe it or not, the pitching was even better. In three games only one of their pitchers allowed a run and their bullpen only had to throw 4.0 innings and those were all in game 2 as Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels gave the bullpen two nights off in this series. Oswalt did struggle slightly but still only gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and I’m not sure that I really have to expound upon the performances of Halladay or Hamels. The “H2O” trio put forth the following GS’s:
Halladay – 94
Oswalt – 47
Hamels – 86
While Oswalt’s game could hardly be called a gem, he stilled pitched well enough to give the Phillies a chance to win and he picked a day when the Phillies put 7 runs on the board due to various Reds’ miscues.
The team that plays the game more fundamentally sound and minimizes their own mistakes while maximizing on the mistakes of their opponents will play in the World Series.
X-FACTOR
These teams played so evenly that single players don’t really stand out as being x-factors in this series. The key to the series for the Giants is to score runs which they haven’t been terribly good at this year and now they have to go against quite possibly the hottest trio of starting pitchers in the game right now. However, you could also say that their success will largely hinge on whether or not their own brilliant rotation foursome (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Bumgarner) will be able to contain the Phillies trio in the middle of the lineup (Werth, Utley, Howard).
The one area where these teams performed quite differently in the division series was in how well their bullpens pitched. For the Giants, their relievers pitched 9.0 innings, giving up 4 earned runs on 7 hits while striking out 10 and walking 2. This includes blowing a 4-1 lead that Matt Cain handed the bullpen in game 2 and most disturbingly, it was Brian Wilson who finally gave up the lead, the one pitcher in that bullpen that they need to be able to rely on.
On the flip side of the coin, the Phillies’ bullpen didn’t pitch very much (4.0 innings) but when they did, they were good. Ryan Madson allowed one hit and Brad Lidge and Chad Durbin each walked a batter and those were the only three baserunners allowed by the Phillies’ pen. This bullpen isn’t as formidable as it has been in years past but they pitched well during the regular season and very well in the division series and they will be the Phillies key to victory.
THE VERDICT
Offensively, the Phillies have a slight advantage due to their veteran lineup and the potential they have if they really get the bats rolling. The Giants lineup can put a hurting on you but nothing like what the Phillies can do.
To say that either team has an advantage in starting pitching is the definition of splitting hairs but since the Phillies rotation has three potential aces while the Giants have one ace and three potential number two or number three starters, I have to give a sliver of an advantage to the Phillies.
So far this postseason in the bullpen, the Phillies have pitched well and the Giants have not. Advantage: Phillies.
The Phillies were 2-0 at home and 1-0 on the road while the Giants were 2-0 on the road and 1-1 at home. Advantage: ?.
The tentative pitching match-ups that have been announced will be as follows (with the home team in parentheses):
Game 1 (PHI): Lincecum vs. Halladay
Game 2 (PHI): Sanchez vs. Hamels
Game 3 (SF): Oswalt vs. Cain
Picking which team has an advantage in those match-ups seems a little ludicrous but oh well… unfortunately for the Giants, I would actually give the Phillies a slight edge in all three of those games and the reason leads right into my final point.
Intangibles. In 2008, the Giants were 72-90, finishing 4th in the NL West. The Phillies were 92-70, winning the NL East. The Phillies then beat the Brewers (3-1), the Dodgers (4-1), and the Rays (4-1) in impressive fashion to win the World Series.
In 2009, the Giants were 88-74 (a drastic improvement) but still finished in third, seven games behind the Dodgers. The Phillies were 93-69, again winning the NL East. In the playoffs, they defeated the Rockies (3-1) and the Dodgers (4-1) to win the NL pennant before losing to the Yankees juggernaut in 6 games.
The Phillies have been here and done that and despite the fact that Halladay and Oswalt weren’t around for those two playoff runs, Halladay is a seasoned veteran and obviously has no problem with the bright lights of October while Oswalt has been here before with the Astros and pitched very well in his playoff career. All we know about the Giants is what they did against the Braves. This is a young team that has been down for a few years so we really don’t know how they’ll react going up against the two-time defending NL champions. Crunch all the numbers and what you’ll get is an entertaining series and a Phillies victory.
PHILLIES 4, GIANTS 2
This series is going to be all about pitching and for people who love a good 1-0 game, this is going to be a dream come true. The NLCS will match up quite possibly two of the hottest rotations entering the playoffs that baseball has seen in a very long time and runs will be at such a premium that in my opinion, the advantage has to slide in favor of the more veteran lineup that might be able to use their experience to scratch out an extra run or two here and there.
BY THE NUMBERS
Both of their offenses were abysmal in the division series with the Giants posting a slash line of .212/.288/.295 while the Phillies managed a line of .212/.301/.273. At first glance, to think that these two teams went a combined 6-1 is almost hard to believe until you look at what their pitchers were able to do:
Giants – .175/.214/.263
Phillies – .124/.160/.213
Offensively, neither team has any single player that is really trending upward except for the rookie sensation Buster Posey, the Giants catcher who did his best Joe Mauer impression this year with a .305/.357/.505 slash line, 18 home runs, and 67 RBI in 108 games. He continued his brilliant year by going 6-16 in the division series against the Braves but was held with just one double and without an RBI.
Other than Posey, the highest batting average for a player that played every game in their respective series was Cody Ross for the Giants (4-14, .286) and Chase Utley for the Phillies (3-11, .273). These offenses are hardly performing at their peak efficiency and again, I have to say that I believe that favors that team that underachieved more relative to the regular season and that would be the Phillies.
Runs will again be at a premium because the pitching in both division series by these two teams was nothing short of superb. The Giants allowed 9 runs in 4 games and had a team ERA of 1.66 (due to two unearned runs). Continuing their September trend, their starters were ridiculous, pitching 29.0 innings and allowing just 3 earned runs (0.93 ERA) while allowing 17 hits with a K:BB ratio of 36:5. In their four games, their starters had the following Game Scores:
Lincecum - 96
Cain – 62
Sanchez – 80
Bumgarner – 56
In short, the Yankees and Rangers would be truly ecstatic to get a GS of 56 from their number four starters.
On the Phillies side of things, believe it or not, the pitching was even better. In three games only one of their pitchers allowed a run and their bullpen only had to throw 4.0 innings and those were all in game 2 as Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels gave the bullpen two nights off in this series. Oswalt did struggle slightly but still only gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and I’m not sure that I really have to expound upon the performances of Halladay or Hamels. The “H2O” trio put forth the following GS’s:
Halladay – 94
Oswalt – 47
Hamels – 86
While Oswalt’s game could hardly be called a gem, he stilled pitched well enough to give the Phillies a chance to win and he picked a day when the Phillies put 7 runs on the board due to various Reds’ miscues.
The team that plays the game more fundamentally sound and minimizes their own mistakes while maximizing on the mistakes of their opponents will play in the World Series.
X-FACTOR
These teams played so evenly that single players don’t really stand out as being x-factors in this series. The key to the series for the Giants is to score runs which they haven’t been terribly good at this year and now they have to go against quite possibly the hottest trio of starting pitchers in the game right now. However, you could also say that their success will largely hinge on whether or not their own brilliant rotation foursome (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Bumgarner) will be able to contain the Phillies trio in the middle of the lineup (Werth, Utley, Howard).
The one area where these teams performed quite differently in the division series was in how well their bullpens pitched. For the Giants, their relievers pitched 9.0 innings, giving up 4 earned runs on 7 hits while striking out 10 and walking 2. This includes blowing a 4-1 lead that Matt Cain handed the bullpen in game 2 and most disturbingly, it was Brian Wilson who finally gave up the lead, the one pitcher in that bullpen that they need to be able to rely on.
On the flip side of the coin, the Phillies’ bullpen didn’t pitch very much (4.0 innings) but when they did, they were good. Ryan Madson allowed one hit and Brad Lidge and Chad Durbin each walked a batter and those were the only three baserunners allowed by the Phillies’ pen. This bullpen isn’t as formidable as it has been in years past but they pitched well during the regular season and very well in the division series and they will be the Phillies key to victory.
THE VERDICT
Offensively, the Phillies have a slight advantage due to their veteran lineup and the potential they have if they really get the bats rolling. The Giants lineup can put a hurting on you but nothing like what the Phillies can do.
To say that either team has an advantage in starting pitching is the definition of splitting hairs but since the Phillies rotation has three potential aces while the Giants have one ace and three potential number two or number three starters, I have to give a sliver of an advantage to the Phillies.
So far this postseason in the bullpen, the Phillies have pitched well and the Giants have not. Advantage: Phillies.
The Phillies were 2-0 at home and 1-0 on the road while the Giants were 2-0 on the road and 1-1 at home. Advantage: ?.
The tentative pitching match-ups that have been announced will be as follows (with the home team in parentheses):
Game 1 (PHI): Lincecum vs. Halladay
Game 2 (PHI): Sanchez vs. Hamels
Game 3 (SF): Oswalt vs. Cain
Picking which team has an advantage in those match-ups seems a little ludicrous but oh well… unfortunately for the Giants, I would actually give the Phillies a slight edge in all three of those games and the reason leads right into my final point.
Intangibles. In 2008, the Giants were 72-90, finishing 4th in the NL West. The Phillies were 92-70, winning the NL East. The Phillies then beat the Brewers (3-1), the Dodgers (4-1), and the Rays (4-1) in impressive fashion to win the World Series.
In 2009, the Giants were 88-74 (a drastic improvement) but still finished in third, seven games behind the Dodgers. The Phillies were 93-69, again winning the NL East. In the playoffs, they defeated the Rockies (3-1) and the Dodgers (4-1) to win the NL pennant before losing to the Yankees juggernaut in 6 games.
The Phillies have been here and done that and despite the fact that Halladay and Oswalt weren’t around for those two playoff runs, Halladay is a seasoned veteran and obviously has no problem with the bright lights of October while Oswalt has been here before with the Astros and pitched very well in his playoff career. All we know about the Giants is what they did against the Braves. This is a young team that has been down for a few years so we really don’t know how they’ll react going up against the two-time defending NL champions. Crunch all the numbers and what you’ll get is an entertaining series and a Phillies victory.
PHILLIES 4, GIANTS 2
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
ALCS Preview
Eight games are in the books in the American League playoffs for 2010 and two teams have been eliminated. Friday night, the Minnesota Twins will visit the Tampa Bay Rays in the first game of the…
Wait, what?
The Rangers at the Yankees?
Yes, apparently my wonderful predictions could not have been more wrong in the first round of the AL playoffs. Cliff Lee pitched exactly like the Rangers wanted him to when they traded for him a few months ago and sure enough, when the chips were down on the table, the Rangers won just one of three games in which Lee did not start. However, they won both games the left hander started and he is closer and closer to a huge payday this offseason.
In the other series, the Yankees have the Twins number and there is no other way to say it. In the wildcard era (since 1995), the Twins and Yankees have played in the first round of the playoffs four times and have won all four series while posting a 12-2 record.
Now the two face off and at face value, the advantage is firmly in the Yankees corner and the reasons aren’t so much for home/road splits or key players or anything of that sort. Many people hate to talk about “intangibles” but whatever they are, the Yankees have them. They play the game the right way and while they may not do anything great, they do everything well.
BY THE NUMBERS
The Yankees outscored the Twins 17-7 and had a slash line of .314/.351/.865 in the sweep while allowing the Twins a slash line of just .216/.280/.330 and two of those three games were on the road for the Yankees.
CC Sabathia pitched decently in game 1 (6.0-5-4-3-3-5), Andy Pettitte pitched very well in game 2 (7.0-5-2-2-1-4), and Phil Hughes pitched brilliantly in game 3 (7.0-4-0-0-1-6), answering some of the biggest questions about this team coming into the postseason. On top of that, their bullpen pitched 7.0 innings and gave up just 1 run on 7 hits.
On the other side, the Rangers won the first series in the wildcard era where every game was won by the road team (so much for home field advantage). The fact that makes that tidbit so unusual is the fact that the Rangers had the second worst road record (39-42) of any playoff team and all they did was win three games against a team that went 49-32 at home. So are they afraid of the new Yankee Stadium and the Yankees 52-29 home record? I seriously doubt it.
The Rangers had a slash line of .253/.283/.437 while they allowed the Rays a .215/.270/.355 slash line. The number that jumps out at me the most is that they had just a .283 on-base percentage and scored just 21 runs in five games but their starting pitching was superb. CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter combined to pitch 15.1 innings and allowed just two earned runs on 10 hits while posting a K/BB ratio of 19:7. Then there’s Cliff Lee. So given that their starters posted an ERA of 1.15, how did they not sweep the Rays? Mostly because their bullpen had a 5.27 ERA in 13.2 innings.
X-FACTORS
For the Rangers, their success in this series will be measured not by what Cliff Lee can do but rather by what everyone else can do. He is tentatively scheduled to start game 3 at home in front of what will surely be a rambunctious crowd in Arlington and then potentially game 7 in front of the hostile New York fans. Will CJ Wilson (6.1-2-0-0-2-7) be able to duplicate his success against the Yankees in game 1 of the series in the Bronx? Will Josh Hamilton be able to bounce back from a disappointing division series (.111/.200/.111)? Will Neftali Feliz pitch like he did in the regular season (2.73 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) or like he did in his first two career playoff games (1.1-2-1-1-3-2)?
For the Yankees, Mark Teixeira went 4-13 with a home run, Marcus Thames was 2-7 with a home run, Nick Swisher was 4-12 with a home run, and the trio of Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Jorge Posada hit a pedestrian .278 with no extra base hits. Robinson Cano continued his solid season, going 4-12 in the division series and Lance Berkman provided a spark off the bench, going 2-4 with a home run and a double in the Yankees 5-2 game 2 victory.
The biggest x-factor though is Curtis Granderson. In September and October this season, Granderson had a slash line of .263/.362/.596 and hit 9 home runs in 99 at-bats. In the division series against the Twins, he played very well, hitting .455 (5-11) with a double, a triple, 3 RBI, and more importantly, just one strikeout.
When you add all of that up, it looks like a very deep and dangerous line-up, especially when guys named Rodriguez, Posada, and Jeter haven’t made any serious contributions yet. One of the biggest factors for the Yankees success will be how well their line-up as a whole performs. Last year in the World Series, it was mostly Hideki Matsui’s heroics that made up for a relatively lackluster effort from the rest of batting order.
The other x-factor in my opinion is the AJ Burnett. This season he had five starts with a game score of 70 or better and he had five starts with a GS under 20. In last year’s ALCS and World Series, Burnett was solid to brilliant in two starts on 7 days rest (GS of 61 against the Angels and 72 against the Phillies in the World Series) and downright bad in two starts on short rest (32 against the Angels and 22 against the Phillies). Is some of that due to the fact that it was the second time both teams saw him in a series? Probably, but I think it’s safe to say that on short rest, AJ Burnett is a liability and given how he’s pitched this season, he’s no better than a 4th or 5th starter right now. If they Yankees can steal a win with him on the mound, they will consider themselves lucky.
THE VERDICT
Right now, these are the projected starters for the ALCS (with the home team in parentheses):
Game 1 (NY): CJ Wilson vs. CC Sabathia
Game 2 (NY): Colby Lewis vs. Phil Hughes
Game 3 (TEX): Andy Pettitte vs. Cliff Lee
Game 4 (TEX): AJ Burnett vs. Tommy Hunter
After that, the match-ups for games 1-3 can repeat with all pitchers throwing on regular rest. Based on how they fared this season, the Yankees have an advantage in games 1 and 4 while the Rangers have the advantage in game 3. That leaves a critical game 2 start between Colby Lewis and Phil Hughes. If the Yankees win, they could be looking at a 2-0 advantage going to Texas and potentially have Sabathia back on the mound in Texas with a 3-1 series lead. If the Rangers win that game and steal a game in New York, it will be tied going home for the Rangers and could be tied at 2 going into the final 3 games. If that happens, all signs point to an Andy Pettitte-Cliff Lee showdown in game 7 in Yankee Stadium.
Alas, just 8 of 30 LCS match-ups have gone the distance in the wild card era and this will not be #9.
YANKEES 4, RANGERS 2
Wait, what?
The Rangers at the Yankees?
Yes, apparently my wonderful predictions could not have been more wrong in the first round of the AL playoffs. Cliff Lee pitched exactly like the Rangers wanted him to when they traded for him a few months ago and sure enough, when the chips were down on the table, the Rangers won just one of three games in which Lee did not start. However, they won both games the left hander started and he is closer and closer to a huge payday this offseason.
In the other series, the Yankees have the Twins number and there is no other way to say it. In the wildcard era (since 1995), the Twins and Yankees have played in the first round of the playoffs four times and have won all four series while posting a 12-2 record.
Now the two face off and at face value, the advantage is firmly in the Yankees corner and the reasons aren’t so much for home/road splits or key players or anything of that sort. Many people hate to talk about “intangibles” but whatever they are, the Yankees have them. They play the game the right way and while they may not do anything great, they do everything well.
BY THE NUMBERS
The Yankees outscored the Twins 17-7 and had a slash line of .314/.351/.865 in the sweep while allowing the Twins a slash line of just .216/.280/.330 and two of those three games were on the road for the Yankees.
CC Sabathia pitched decently in game 1 (6.0-5-4-3-3-5), Andy Pettitte pitched very well in game 2 (7.0-5-2-2-1-4), and Phil Hughes pitched brilliantly in game 3 (7.0-4-0-0-1-6), answering some of the biggest questions about this team coming into the postseason. On top of that, their bullpen pitched 7.0 innings and gave up just 1 run on 7 hits.
On the other side, the Rangers won the first series in the wildcard era where every game was won by the road team (so much for home field advantage). The fact that makes that tidbit so unusual is the fact that the Rangers had the second worst road record (39-42) of any playoff team and all they did was win three games against a team that went 49-32 at home. So are they afraid of the new Yankee Stadium and the Yankees 52-29 home record? I seriously doubt it.
The Rangers had a slash line of .253/.283/.437 while they allowed the Rays a .215/.270/.355 slash line. The number that jumps out at me the most is that they had just a .283 on-base percentage and scored just 21 runs in five games but their starting pitching was superb. CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter combined to pitch 15.1 innings and allowed just two earned runs on 10 hits while posting a K/BB ratio of 19:7. Then there’s Cliff Lee. So given that their starters posted an ERA of 1.15, how did they not sweep the Rays? Mostly because their bullpen had a 5.27 ERA in 13.2 innings.
X-FACTORS
For the Rangers, their success in this series will be measured not by what Cliff Lee can do but rather by what everyone else can do. He is tentatively scheduled to start game 3 at home in front of what will surely be a rambunctious crowd in Arlington and then potentially game 7 in front of the hostile New York fans. Will CJ Wilson (6.1-2-0-0-2-7) be able to duplicate his success against the Yankees in game 1 of the series in the Bronx? Will Josh Hamilton be able to bounce back from a disappointing division series (.111/.200/.111)? Will Neftali Feliz pitch like he did in the regular season (2.73 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) or like he did in his first two career playoff games (1.1-2-1-1-3-2)?
For the Yankees, Mark Teixeira went 4-13 with a home run, Marcus Thames was 2-7 with a home run, Nick Swisher was 4-12 with a home run, and the trio of Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Jorge Posada hit a pedestrian .278 with no extra base hits. Robinson Cano continued his solid season, going 4-12 in the division series and Lance Berkman provided a spark off the bench, going 2-4 with a home run and a double in the Yankees 5-2 game 2 victory.
The biggest x-factor though is Curtis Granderson. In September and October this season, Granderson had a slash line of .263/.362/.596 and hit 9 home runs in 99 at-bats. In the division series against the Twins, he played very well, hitting .455 (5-11) with a double, a triple, 3 RBI, and more importantly, just one strikeout.
When you add all of that up, it looks like a very deep and dangerous line-up, especially when guys named Rodriguez, Posada, and Jeter haven’t made any serious contributions yet. One of the biggest factors for the Yankees success will be how well their line-up as a whole performs. Last year in the World Series, it was mostly Hideki Matsui’s heroics that made up for a relatively lackluster effort from the rest of batting order.
The other x-factor in my opinion is the AJ Burnett. This season he had five starts with a game score of 70 or better and he had five starts with a GS under 20. In last year’s ALCS and World Series, Burnett was solid to brilliant in two starts on 7 days rest (GS of 61 against the Angels and 72 against the Phillies in the World Series) and downright bad in two starts on short rest (32 against the Angels and 22 against the Phillies). Is some of that due to the fact that it was the second time both teams saw him in a series? Probably, but I think it’s safe to say that on short rest, AJ Burnett is a liability and given how he’s pitched this season, he’s no better than a 4th or 5th starter right now. If they Yankees can steal a win with him on the mound, they will consider themselves lucky.
THE VERDICT
Right now, these are the projected starters for the ALCS (with the home team in parentheses):
Game 1 (NY): CJ Wilson vs. CC Sabathia
Game 2 (NY): Colby Lewis vs. Phil Hughes
Game 3 (TEX): Andy Pettitte vs. Cliff Lee
Game 4 (TEX): AJ Burnett vs. Tommy Hunter
After that, the match-ups for games 1-3 can repeat with all pitchers throwing on regular rest. Based on how they fared this season, the Yankees have an advantage in games 1 and 4 while the Rangers have the advantage in game 3. That leaves a critical game 2 start between Colby Lewis and Phil Hughes. If the Yankees win, they could be looking at a 2-0 advantage going to Texas and potentially have Sabathia back on the mound in Texas with a 3-1 series lead. If the Rangers win that game and steal a game in New York, it will be tied going home for the Rangers and could be tied at 2 going into the final 3 games. If that happens, all signs point to an Andy Pettitte-Cliff Lee showdown in game 7 in Yankee Stadium.
Alas, just 8 of 30 LCS match-ups have gone the distance in the wild card era and this will not be #9.
YANKEES 4, RANGERS 2
Monday, October 4, 2010
MLB Playoff Preview 2010
The leaves are turning and the calendar just rolled from September to October and that means playoff baseball. For the seventh consecutive year, at least one playoff spot was decided on the last day of the regular season but unlike the past couple years, we did not need to go to game #163 to get our 8 team playoff field. So who will win? Will the Yankees repeat? Will the H2O big three carry Philadelphia to their third straight NL crown and second World Series crown in three years?
Let’s find out!
NL DIVISION SERIES
ATLANTA BRAVES VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
This series features a pair of teams will an extreme dichotomy between their performance at home and on the road and the way the playoffs are set up, that always favors the team given home field advantage in the round (in this case, the Giants).
While the Giants just had a six game difference between their home and road records (49-32 vs. 43-38), the Braves had the largest difference of any playoff team: an incredible 21 games.
The Braves were just 35-46 with a decent .711 OPS (102 OPS+) and a 3.96 ERA on the road this year. However, at home, they were 56-25 (the best home record of any team in the playoffs this year) with a 106 OPS+ and an ERA of 3.20.
WHO TO WATCH
For the Braves offensively, this list is very short. Their team leader in OPS was Jason Heyward with a mark of .849. A very good mark (especially given that he is a rookie) but nothing that will instill fear in opposing pitchers. Only one regular hit 20 home runs (Brian McCann with 21) and only two regulars hit above .300 (Omar Infante at .321 and Martin Prado at .307) during the regular season.
In their rotation, they have three quality starters but their success will begin and end with Tim Hudson. The right-hander had one of the best seasons of his career, going 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Behind him, Derek Lower was his usual dependable self (16-12, 4.00, 193.2 IP) and Tommy Hanson was a pleasant surprise (10-11, 3.33, 1.174 WHIP). Given what the Giants have done this year on the mound, the Braves’ starters will be key to their success.
The Giants offensively this year weren’t all that bad (just in September) but they were still far from the strongest lineup in this playoff field. Aubrey Huff will have to carry much of the load (.891 OPS, 26 HR) and the Giants are really hoping that Kung Fu Panda (Pablo Sandoval) will hit better in October than he did from April to September (.732 OPS, 13 HR).
Pitching is where the Giants have excelled for a long time. In September, the team had an ERA of 1.91, a WHIP of .945, and allowed opponents an OPS of just .543. They have a “Big Three” that can arguably rival that of the Phillies with Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43), Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14), and Jonathon Sanchez (13-9, 3.07). The win-loss records aren’t nearly as good because of the relative strength of their offenses. In the bullpen, Brian Wilson has saved 48 games and boasts a 1.81 ERA this season in 74.2 innings.
THE VERDICT
The Giants are rolling and the Braves haven’t had the win-or-die mentality for quite some time, squandering a lead in the NL East to the Phillies. Look for the Braves to win one but no more than that.
GIANTS 3-1
CINCINNATI REDS VS. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
The Reds have played well all year long but there is no doubt that they took advantage of a Cardinals collapse. A while back it looked like this race might go down to the wire but that never materialized. The Reds are here because they spent all season beating up on lefties and bad teams. Their .600 winning percentage against left-handed starters was second best amongst playoff teams (to the Rays) and they also had the second best record against teams that were under .500 (.651).
Unfortunately, the flip side of that coin is one they may not want to hear about. Their .542 winning percentage against righties and .377 against winning teams were by far the lowest of any playoff teams; an ominous sign since they have to play the team that had the best record in baseball (the 97-65 Phillies) who have two of the best right-handed starters in the game right now (Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt).
For the Phillies, they have nothing to win and everything to lose. The last time the Reds were in the playoffs was in 1995 while the Phillies are the two-time defending NL champions. For the Phillies this year, attention has gone from the Big Three (Howard, Utley, and Rollins) to the next Big Three (Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels) but one could easily argue that the former will be more important than the latter.
WHO TO WATCH
The Reds had four regulars hit 20 or more home runs and only one had an OPS+ under 100 (below league average) but their success will largely depend on either Joey Votto or how well everyone else does if the Phillies can neutralize him. The presumptive MVP had a slash line of .324/.424/.600 with 37 home runs and 113 RBI this year and he is the straw in the Reds’ drink. The question is whether or not he can get the help he needs from the rest of the line-up.
The rotation is a huge question mark. Johnny Cueto has the ability to shut down any offense on any given night but after that, it’s Bronson Arroyo and a couple question marks. Mike Leake has come back to earth after his torrent start to his rookie campaign. Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood have thrown between 102.2 and 111.2 innings this year so a rotation by committee is entirely possible.
For the Phillies, their offensive output is nowhere near what they have grown accustomed to the past few years because they’ve been decimated by injuries. Howard, Utley, and Rollins all missed time this year and how well they play will largely determine how far they are able to go. The X-factor in this line-up is Jayson Werth, who led the team with a .921 OPS and finished second on the team with 27 home runs. Jimmy Rollins, becoming more of a Mr. Intangible by the day, batted very poorly in just 88 games this year (.243/.320/.374 with 8 home runs and 41 RBI) and he will need to step up for the Phillies to make it back to the World Series.
At last, we have reached the current Big Three: Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44, 9 complete games), Roy Oswalt (7-1, 1.74, 0.895 WHIP since being traded), and Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06, 1.179 WHIP). Those three give Charlie Manuel an amazing amount of flexibility and it also gives him a couple other starters in Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton that he may or may not need to actually start a game, a problem that seven other managers would love to have right now.
THE VERDICT
The Reds haven’t been to the playoffs in 15 years and the Phillies have played 29 postseason games in the past two years.
PHILLIES 3-1
TEXAS RANGERS VS. TAMPA BAY RAYS
Again, we have a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs in over ten years playing a team that has went to the World Series just two years ago with basically the same team they have now. The Rays have a .643 winning percentage against lefties, which could spell disaster for the Rangers and ace Cliff Lee. This match-up also puts the closest home/away records together when the Rangers host the Rays. The Rangers were 51-30 at home this year but the Rays had the best road records amongst playoff teams (by four games) at 47-34.
Another point of concern for the Rangers is that they, like the Reds, built their record against the Mariners while the Rays had to contend with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees. The Rays .588 winning percentage against above .500 teams was tied for the best amongst playoff teams with the Phillies but while the Phillies only played 68 games against winning teams, the Rays played an astounding 97 such games (57-40). Meanwhile, the Rangers were just 39-42 against teams with a winning record.
WHO TO WATCH
Is Josh Hamilton healthy? His .359 batting average is the highest in team history and despite missing most of September with an injury, he still hit 32 home runs and drove in 100 runs. If he is at or close to 100%, he can potentially carry this line-up but if the injury is still nagging him, the Rangers might play more like the team that was just a little above average in September (15-12).
Other than Hamilton, the Rangers’ line-up isn’t terribly impressive, especially since Vladimir Guerrero hasn’t played nearly as well in the second half as he did before the All-Star break (.919 OPS in the first half vs. .748 in the second half).
On the pitching side of things, Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, and Tommy Hunter have all been solid and the wildcard in the rotation looks like it’s going to be Cliff Lee. Since being traded to Texas, Lee is just 4-6 with an ERA of 3.98. However, for the season, Lee still leads the AL in complete games (7), WHIP (1.003), and strikeout to walk ratio (10.28).
For the Rays, a lot of their success may be determined by how well Carlos Pena plays. He leads the team with 28 home runs but his slash line is poor to say the least at .196/.325/.407. Evan Longoria is developing into one of the best young players in the league (especially when considering his defense) and this year his slash line (.294/.372/.507) is nothing but solid. An X-factor for them could end up being the play of Carl Crawford and BJ Upton given that runs will be at a premium in October: they combined to steal 89 bases and got caught just 19 times.
The rotation is led by David Price who has had a Cy Young caliber season. Behind him, the rotation is a little weaker than it has been in recent years. Matt Garza always has the ability to shut down an opponent (evidenced by his no-hitter against Detroit earlier this year) and James Shields has pitched better than his 5.18 ERA would suggest. Behind those three, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis have pitched well (for the bottom of the rotation) but not as well as they might need in October. The biggest addition that they made in the offseason was closer Rafael Soriano who has been nothing short of brilliant this year with an ERA of 1.73 and 45 saves.
THE VERDICT
The Rangers offense will test the back end of the Rays rotation and that might make it interesting. David Price will offset Cliff Lee but the Rangers have a deeper rotation than the Rays but in the end, the Rays are too good to be upset in the first round.
RAYS 3-2
NEW YORK YANKEES VS. MINNESOTA TWINS
On paper, this might just be the best series of the first round and whoever wins this series might be fodder for their opponent in the ALCS. Both teams played well against righties, lefties, winning teams, losing teams, and in one run games. Both teams played very well at home (53-28 for the Twins and 52-29 for the Yankees) and struggled a bit on the road (41-40 for the Twins and 43-38 for the Yankees).
Looking at the entire team statistics, even the home/road splits, it looks very much like this series could be one where all five games are won by the home team.
WHO TO WATCH
The Yankees are the defending World Series champions and managed to win 95 games this year but several of the regulars didn’t play nearly as well as they did a year ago. Despite hitting 30+ home runs this year, Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506) and Mark Teixeira (.256/.365/.481) haven’t been nearly as dangerous as they have in years past. Derek Jeter was the only Yankees regular with an OPS+ below average (90 due to a .270/.340/.370 slash line) this year.
The strongest points in their line-up this year have been Nick Swisher (who hit just .162 last postseason) and Robinson Cano (who hit .193 last year in the playoffs).
So who’s going to show up in this line-up? The answer to that question will largely determine whether or not the Yankees have a chance to repeat as champions.
In their rotation, CC Sabathia has been very good, Phil Hughes has been good, AJ Burnett has been very hit and miss, Javier Vazquez seems to be able to pitch well anywhere but in New York, and Andy Pettitte is missed a lot of time this year due to injury. At the back end of the bullpen, Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera. However, who pitches the first 8 innings has got to be a big concern for Joe Girardi.
On the Twins’ side of things, they have been nothing short of amazing since the loss of Justin Morneau for an indefinite period of time since he went down with a concussion on July 7th. One of the biggest reasons for their continued good play has been the remarkable play of Jim Thome. The just-turned-40-year-old has a slash line of .283/.412/.627 with 25 home runs in just 276 at-bats and perhaps playing so little will keep him fresh for the postseason. Along with Thome, Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469), Delmon Young (.826 OPS with 21 home runs), and Jason Kubel (21 home runs) make this a deep line-up.
Their rotation throws strikes and they pitch to contact but they also have a top of the rotation starter in Francisco Liriano that can stop a losing streak. Behind him, Carl Pavano is having a very good season but other than that, nothing about this pitching staff jumps out as being better than solid. Will that be good enough, given the Yankees relative offensive woes compared to a year ago?
THE VERDICT
The Yankees haven’t been as good this year as they were last year which is interesting to say because they went 95-67, led the league in runs, finished second in OPS+, and finished 10th in ERA+. Frankly, they just don’t scare me going into the playoffs like they did last year. A year ago, they had the edge of not having won a World Series since 2000 and there was all sorts of pressure to win. This year, there isn’t that same sense of urgency and I have a feeling the Twins are the perfect no-nonsense kind of team to take advantage.
TWINS 3-2
And that does it for the first round of the playoffs. The Twins will play the Rays in the ALCS and the Phillies will match up against the Giants in the NLCS. Look for a preview of those series between the first round and the LCS round of the playoffs.
Game on!
Let’s find out!
NL DIVISION SERIES
ATLANTA BRAVES VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
This series features a pair of teams will an extreme dichotomy between their performance at home and on the road and the way the playoffs are set up, that always favors the team given home field advantage in the round (in this case, the Giants).
While the Giants just had a six game difference between their home and road records (49-32 vs. 43-38), the Braves had the largest difference of any playoff team: an incredible 21 games.
The Braves were just 35-46 with a decent .711 OPS (102 OPS+) and a 3.96 ERA on the road this year. However, at home, they were 56-25 (the best home record of any team in the playoffs this year) with a 106 OPS+ and an ERA of 3.20.
WHO TO WATCH
For the Braves offensively, this list is very short. Their team leader in OPS was Jason Heyward with a mark of .849. A very good mark (especially given that he is a rookie) but nothing that will instill fear in opposing pitchers. Only one regular hit 20 home runs (Brian McCann with 21) and only two regulars hit above .300 (Omar Infante at .321 and Martin Prado at .307) during the regular season.
In their rotation, they have three quality starters but their success will begin and end with Tim Hudson. The right-hander had one of the best seasons of his career, going 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Behind him, Derek Lower was his usual dependable self (16-12, 4.00, 193.2 IP) and Tommy Hanson was a pleasant surprise (10-11, 3.33, 1.174 WHIP). Given what the Giants have done this year on the mound, the Braves’ starters will be key to their success.
The Giants offensively this year weren’t all that bad (just in September) but they were still far from the strongest lineup in this playoff field. Aubrey Huff will have to carry much of the load (.891 OPS, 26 HR) and the Giants are really hoping that Kung Fu Panda (Pablo Sandoval) will hit better in October than he did from April to September (.732 OPS, 13 HR).
Pitching is where the Giants have excelled for a long time. In September, the team had an ERA of 1.91, a WHIP of .945, and allowed opponents an OPS of just .543. They have a “Big Three” that can arguably rival that of the Phillies with Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43), Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14), and Jonathon Sanchez (13-9, 3.07). The win-loss records aren’t nearly as good because of the relative strength of their offenses. In the bullpen, Brian Wilson has saved 48 games and boasts a 1.81 ERA this season in 74.2 innings.
THE VERDICT
The Giants are rolling and the Braves haven’t had the win-or-die mentality for quite some time, squandering a lead in the NL East to the Phillies. Look for the Braves to win one but no more than that.
GIANTS 3-1
CINCINNATI REDS VS. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
The Reds have played well all year long but there is no doubt that they took advantage of a Cardinals collapse. A while back it looked like this race might go down to the wire but that never materialized. The Reds are here because they spent all season beating up on lefties and bad teams. Their .600 winning percentage against left-handed starters was second best amongst playoff teams (to the Rays) and they also had the second best record against teams that were under .500 (.651).
Unfortunately, the flip side of that coin is one they may not want to hear about. Their .542 winning percentage against righties and .377 against winning teams were by far the lowest of any playoff teams; an ominous sign since they have to play the team that had the best record in baseball (the 97-65 Phillies) who have two of the best right-handed starters in the game right now (Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt).
For the Phillies, they have nothing to win and everything to lose. The last time the Reds were in the playoffs was in 1995 while the Phillies are the two-time defending NL champions. For the Phillies this year, attention has gone from the Big Three (Howard, Utley, and Rollins) to the next Big Three (Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels) but one could easily argue that the former will be more important than the latter.
WHO TO WATCH
The Reds had four regulars hit 20 or more home runs and only one had an OPS+ under 100 (below league average) but their success will largely depend on either Joey Votto or how well everyone else does if the Phillies can neutralize him. The presumptive MVP had a slash line of .324/.424/.600 with 37 home runs and 113 RBI this year and he is the straw in the Reds’ drink. The question is whether or not he can get the help he needs from the rest of the line-up.
The rotation is a huge question mark. Johnny Cueto has the ability to shut down any offense on any given night but after that, it’s Bronson Arroyo and a couple question marks. Mike Leake has come back to earth after his torrent start to his rookie campaign. Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood have thrown between 102.2 and 111.2 innings this year so a rotation by committee is entirely possible.
For the Phillies, their offensive output is nowhere near what they have grown accustomed to the past few years because they’ve been decimated by injuries. Howard, Utley, and Rollins all missed time this year and how well they play will largely determine how far they are able to go. The X-factor in this line-up is Jayson Werth, who led the team with a .921 OPS and finished second on the team with 27 home runs. Jimmy Rollins, becoming more of a Mr. Intangible by the day, batted very poorly in just 88 games this year (.243/.320/.374 with 8 home runs and 41 RBI) and he will need to step up for the Phillies to make it back to the World Series.
At last, we have reached the current Big Three: Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44, 9 complete games), Roy Oswalt (7-1, 1.74, 0.895 WHIP since being traded), and Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06, 1.179 WHIP). Those three give Charlie Manuel an amazing amount of flexibility and it also gives him a couple other starters in Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton that he may or may not need to actually start a game, a problem that seven other managers would love to have right now.
THE VERDICT
The Reds haven’t been to the playoffs in 15 years and the Phillies have played 29 postseason games in the past two years.
PHILLIES 3-1
TEXAS RANGERS VS. TAMPA BAY RAYS
Again, we have a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs in over ten years playing a team that has went to the World Series just two years ago with basically the same team they have now. The Rays have a .643 winning percentage against lefties, which could spell disaster for the Rangers and ace Cliff Lee. This match-up also puts the closest home/away records together when the Rangers host the Rays. The Rangers were 51-30 at home this year but the Rays had the best road records amongst playoff teams (by four games) at 47-34.
Another point of concern for the Rangers is that they, like the Reds, built their record against the Mariners while the Rays had to contend with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees. The Rays .588 winning percentage against above .500 teams was tied for the best amongst playoff teams with the Phillies but while the Phillies only played 68 games against winning teams, the Rays played an astounding 97 such games (57-40). Meanwhile, the Rangers were just 39-42 against teams with a winning record.
WHO TO WATCH
Is Josh Hamilton healthy? His .359 batting average is the highest in team history and despite missing most of September with an injury, he still hit 32 home runs and drove in 100 runs. If he is at or close to 100%, he can potentially carry this line-up but if the injury is still nagging him, the Rangers might play more like the team that was just a little above average in September (15-12).
Other than Hamilton, the Rangers’ line-up isn’t terribly impressive, especially since Vladimir Guerrero hasn’t played nearly as well in the second half as he did before the All-Star break (.919 OPS in the first half vs. .748 in the second half).
On the pitching side of things, Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, and Tommy Hunter have all been solid and the wildcard in the rotation looks like it’s going to be Cliff Lee. Since being traded to Texas, Lee is just 4-6 with an ERA of 3.98. However, for the season, Lee still leads the AL in complete games (7), WHIP (1.003), and strikeout to walk ratio (10.28).
For the Rays, a lot of their success may be determined by how well Carlos Pena plays. He leads the team with 28 home runs but his slash line is poor to say the least at .196/.325/.407. Evan Longoria is developing into one of the best young players in the league (especially when considering his defense) and this year his slash line (.294/.372/.507) is nothing but solid. An X-factor for them could end up being the play of Carl Crawford and BJ Upton given that runs will be at a premium in October: they combined to steal 89 bases and got caught just 19 times.
The rotation is led by David Price who has had a Cy Young caliber season. Behind him, the rotation is a little weaker than it has been in recent years. Matt Garza always has the ability to shut down an opponent (evidenced by his no-hitter against Detroit earlier this year) and James Shields has pitched better than his 5.18 ERA would suggest. Behind those three, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis have pitched well (for the bottom of the rotation) but not as well as they might need in October. The biggest addition that they made in the offseason was closer Rafael Soriano who has been nothing short of brilliant this year with an ERA of 1.73 and 45 saves.
THE VERDICT
The Rangers offense will test the back end of the Rays rotation and that might make it interesting. David Price will offset Cliff Lee but the Rangers have a deeper rotation than the Rays but in the end, the Rays are too good to be upset in the first round.
RAYS 3-2
NEW YORK YANKEES VS. MINNESOTA TWINS
On paper, this might just be the best series of the first round and whoever wins this series might be fodder for their opponent in the ALCS. Both teams played well against righties, lefties, winning teams, losing teams, and in one run games. Both teams played very well at home (53-28 for the Twins and 52-29 for the Yankees) and struggled a bit on the road (41-40 for the Twins and 43-38 for the Yankees).
Looking at the entire team statistics, even the home/road splits, it looks very much like this series could be one where all five games are won by the home team.
WHO TO WATCH
The Yankees are the defending World Series champions and managed to win 95 games this year but several of the regulars didn’t play nearly as well as they did a year ago. Despite hitting 30+ home runs this year, Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506) and Mark Teixeira (.256/.365/.481) haven’t been nearly as dangerous as they have in years past. Derek Jeter was the only Yankees regular with an OPS+ below average (90 due to a .270/.340/.370 slash line) this year.
The strongest points in their line-up this year have been Nick Swisher (who hit just .162 last postseason) and Robinson Cano (who hit .193 last year in the playoffs).
So who’s going to show up in this line-up? The answer to that question will largely determine whether or not the Yankees have a chance to repeat as champions.
In their rotation, CC Sabathia has been very good, Phil Hughes has been good, AJ Burnett has been very hit and miss, Javier Vazquez seems to be able to pitch well anywhere but in New York, and Andy Pettitte is missed a lot of time this year due to injury. At the back end of the bullpen, Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera. However, who pitches the first 8 innings has got to be a big concern for Joe Girardi.
On the Twins’ side of things, they have been nothing short of amazing since the loss of Justin Morneau for an indefinite period of time since he went down with a concussion on July 7th. One of the biggest reasons for their continued good play has been the remarkable play of Jim Thome. The just-turned-40-year-old has a slash line of .283/.412/.627 with 25 home runs in just 276 at-bats and perhaps playing so little will keep him fresh for the postseason. Along with Thome, Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469), Delmon Young (.826 OPS with 21 home runs), and Jason Kubel (21 home runs) make this a deep line-up.
Their rotation throws strikes and they pitch to contact but they also have a top of the rotation starter in Francisco Liriano that can stop a losing streak. Behind him, Carl Pavano is having a very good season but other than that, nothing about this pitching staff jumps out as being better than solid. Will that be good enough, given the Yankees relative offensive woes compared to a year ago?
THE VERDICT
The Yankees haven’t been as good this year as they were last year which is interesting to say because they went 95-67, led the league in runs, finished second in OPS+, and finished 10th in ERA+. Frankly, they just don’t scare me going into the playoffs like they did last year. A year ago, they had the edge of not having won a World Series since 2000 and there was all sorts of pressure to win. This year, there isn’t that same sense of urgency and I have a feeling the Twins are the perfect no-nonsense kind of team to take advantage.
TWINS 3-2
And that does it for the first round of the playoffs. The Twins will play the Rays in the ALCS and the Phillies will match up against the Giants in the NLCS. Look for a preview of those series between the first round and the LCS round of the playoffs.
Game on!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
