The Ideal Line-Up

What makes the ideal lineup? Is it a leadoff man that instills so much terror in opposing pitchers that his pitches to subsequent batters start to resemble beach balls? Is it a thumper in the middle of the order so scary that opposing managers will walk him with the bases loaded and a two run lead rather than let him swing away? Is it good hitters in the bottom third of the order that can foul off pitch after pitch before grounding out and therefore cause pitchers to breathe sighs of relief before facing the leadoff hitter? Truthfully, the answer is all of the above but since no team has a $500 million payroll, we fall back to the reality of choices so we’ll rephrase the question; what is MY ideal lineup?

I consider myself privileged to have watched Rickey Henderson play in person and I remember one at-bat so clearly that summed up his influence. To start the game in the Kingdome against the Mariners, he walked on four pitches that were nowhere near the strike zone. Before another pitch was thrown, the pitcher threw over to first base twice and still, everyone knew he was running on the first pitch, and he did not disappoint. The pitch was hurried and high (a fastball), trying to give the catcher a chance to throw Henderson out. The catcher hurried his throw, trying to shave fractions of a second off his “pop to pop” time (the time between when the ball is caught by the catcher and when it is caught by the fielder covering second base). Predictably, the throw was late, and off, skipping off the Kingdome turf and into centerfield. Henderson immediately got up and dug for third. The centerfielder (future Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr.) rushed in and gloved the ball, throwing with all his might and speed to third. Predictably, the throw was rushed and skipped by the third baseman and out of play.

5 pitches, 1 stolen base, 2 errors, 1-0 Athletics, 1 silent Kingdome.

Yes, Rickey Henderson is hands down the best leadoff hitter ever and what I want from my leadoff hitter is flashes of Rickey; a guy you have to pay attention to or he will take second and third. I don’t need Henderson’s power but some power wouldn’t hurt. Ideally I’d like a guy who can work the count and make a pitcher work but again, if he swings at the first pitch every time and hits .350, I’ll take it.

In the two hole, all I care about are things that don’t show up in the box score. I want a guy who can bunt (either for sacrifice or for a base hit), he can hit and run if the situation calls for it, he can sneak a stolen base here and there, and he takes the extra base whenever it’s available and sometimes when it’s not.

In the middle of the order (the 3-4-5 spots in the order) it gets a little fuzzy because you can just as easily put my ideal five hitter in the three spot and vice versa; it really comes down to personal preference.

In the third spot in the order, I want a jack of all trades. I want a good batting average but not at the expense of power. I want good power numbers but not at the expense of batting average. I want a good eye, but not at the expense of swinging the bat. I want a guy who can get hot and put together a 20 game hitting streak and while slumping, is still a threat to hit the ball 450 feet. Baserunning ability is always a plus, but far from required.

Next comes the clean-up hitter and in my lineup, this spot is for the best overall hitter. I always like having a DH in this spot, either in position or in spirit. What I mean by spirit is if this guy has to play the field, it’s the chore he has to do between AB’s… or he plays in the NL. I’m not saying defensive ineptitude is a must. I’m saying this guy is a hitter first and foremost and as it happens, I do have a DH in mind for my perfect lineup. If you throw four pitches an inch outside the strike zone, he’ll walk. If you challenge him, he’ll make you pay. If you throw the perfect pitch with two strikes, he’ll foul it off until you make a mistake and you never, ever want this guy up with the game on the line. My ideal clean-up hitter is just as happy with a walk as with a double or a home run.

In game 4 of the 1995 American League Division Series, the Yankees led the Mariners 2-1 in games and 5-0 in the third inning. Edgar Martinez took a pitch off his hands and somehow got the barrel out in front (but not too far) and hooked the ball around the foul pole for a three run homer. In the eighth inning with the score tied 6-6, Yankees closer John Wetteland pitched with the bases loaded to Edgar Martinez. Wetteland let loose with a here-it-is-see-if-you-can-hit-it fastball… and then watched Martinez pound the ball 420 feet over the centerfield fence. Final score; 10-6 Mariners.

In the fifth spot of the batting order, I want a thumper. Average is nice, a good eye is nice, but I want a guy who makes closers with 100 mph fastballs think twice about bringing the heat. He’s the type of guy who makes everyone in the stadium hold their breath when his eyes get wide and the bat leaves his shoulder.

In the six hole is a guy who can slap the ball all over the field. In my ideal lineup he’s similar to a clean-up hitter with less hitting acumen and maybe less pop in his bat. I think of this position a lot like the leadoff hitter for the bottom of the order. I want him to be a tough at-bat that opposing pitchers will overlook; a guy who takes advantage of the relief the pitcher feels from getting through the first five spots of the order.

In the bottom third of the order, I don’t want anything specific from any batter in particular but this is where guys do the little things that turn the batting order over and get back to the big bats in the order. Ideally, these guys can do one thing well. Whether it’s bunting, handling the bat, or playing outstanding defense, it’s always nice to get contributions from the bottom of the order but these usually aren’t the guys that you expect to hit .350 or hit 50 home runs.

The closest to a perfect lineup that I’ve seen in person was that of the 1995 Seattle Mariners and that team went a long ways to defining what I would call an ideal lineup. One of the biggest acquisitions this team made that got them over the hump and into the playoffs was leftfielder Vince Coleman. While none of his rate stats really broke the bank (.290/.335/.395) he provided a spark at the top of the lineup and a base stealing threat that had been absent up until that point. As far as power goes, well, he hit one home run in 176 at-bats with the Mariners.

Batting second for that team down the stretch was Joey Cora, another guy whose rate stats were anything but impressive (.297/.359/.372) but he did all the little things and it didn’t hurt that he was one of the fan favorites on that team. My clearest memory from Cora that year was in the 11th inning of game 5 of the Division Series right after the Yankees had taken a 5-4 lead. Instead of swinging away to start the inning with the big bats coming up behind him, he laid down the perfect drag bunt. It was too far down the line for the pitcher to field the ball and it was left up to first baseman Don Mattingly. He fielded it cleanly but by the time he went to tag Cora, the five foot eight inch spark plug of a second baseman was already by him and sliding into the base, starting what would eventually be the winning rally.

In the third spot of the order was by far the most dangerous hitter (one could argue) the Mariners have ever had in Ken Griffey Jr. The .258/.379/.481 line he put up with 17 home runs and 42 runs batted in was by far the worst he put up while wearing an M’s uniform with the exception of his rookie campaign. The difference was that in 1995 he played only 72 games due to a broken wrist in May. He was the guy that gave that team whatever it needed. Ken Griffey Jr. was an outstanding fielder and was capable of making unimaginable plays in the field but he was just as capable of rousing a stagnant offense with one sweet left-handed swing of his bat. In game 5 of the ALDS, the Yankees were leading 4-2 going into the bottom of the eighth inning and David Cone had been throwing bullets the entire game. It was a make or break game and the Mariners were falling behind. The stadium was getting restless and the bench was too. Griffey hit a home run off of Cone but this was no ordinary home run. It was a fastball down just below the knees, a good pitch by just about any definition. Instead he slugged the ball out to right field and before turning to watch it, Cone sank into a crouch, facing away from the upper deck where the ball would eventually land, knowing what the outcome would be. Several batters later, Cone would walk pinch-hitter Dough Strange with the bases loaded to tie the game and it all started with the Mariners best player administering a jolt to the heart of the team.

In the clean-up spot for the ’95 Mariners was quite possible one of the best hitters in baseball history. Edgar Martinez was the rock upon which the Mariners offense was built that year. He hit 29 home runs and drove in 113 runs while walking 116 times and posted a ridiculous line of .358/.479/.628. He exemplified the theory that if you’ve got a line-up spot for someone who does nothing but hit, he should be pretty good at it. While Griffey missed 72 games with his broken wrist, Martinez was one of the key cogs that kept the Mariners from falling further into the depths of the AL West.

The thumper of this line-up was Jay Buhner. He wasn’t the best fielder ever (in fact, far from it), he did have a cannon of an arm, he couldn’t hit for average (while he did hit better than .270 five times, he never hit better than .280), but he could hit the ball a mile and a half and he swung with all his might every time he uncorked his bat. Playing on a team with a first ballot Hall of Famer in Ken Griffey Jr. and playing for a franchise that had been around for more than 30 years, it was Jay Buhner who was the first Mariner ever to hit 40 or more home runs three years in a row.

The sixth spot in the order was a real wild card for the Mariners and one of the reasons they had a line-up as good as it was. It’s not very often that a first baseman with 31 home runs, 111 runs batted in, and a .920 OPS bats sixth in the order as Tino Martinez did for portions of that year. The rest of the order added bits and pieces as they were needed at various points in time. Third baseman Mike Blowers was instrumental in weathering the storm of Griffey’s broken wrist by hitting 23 home runs. Shortstop Luis Sojo hit .289 and came up with one of the biggest plays of the Mariner’s season in the one game playoff, turning a 1-0 lead into a 5-0 lead that effectively broke the back of the Angels. Catcher Dan Wilson played outstanding defense and added moderate offense to the line-up.

Yes, the 1995 Mariners are one of my favorite single-year teams that I’ve ever seen. I don’t pretend to not be biased towards them but the line-up they put together had everything; speed, power, the ability to hit for average, the ability to get on base, and the ability to put runs on the scoreboard.

Most of all, they had the Kingdome’s ridiculous acoustics and Randy Johnson’s wild hair (and 100 mph fastball and 90 mph slider) to back them up.


Well, this is all for now but for my next posting I’m working on a wild and crazy idea… batting the pitcher 6th…

NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament: A Quantitative Selection

This year I set out to come up with a quantitative way to make my picks. I believe I came up with something… ok… I have a hard time going higher than that.

Wins is far too simple and is inflated to the point that it’s almost not worth keeping track of single season wins records because UCLA won 7 straight national championships and never won more than 30 games including the tournament. Both Kansas and Kentucky entered this year’s bracket with 32 wins.

Points per game, points per game allowed, and scoring margin were also problematic because it’s hard for these to be effective tools without also taking the competition into account. Beating up on weaker teams in a weaker conference will boost all of these metrics.

My next thought was field goal percentage and I felt like I was getting closer to the mark. To round this out, I looked at incorporating field goal defense as well and came up with field goal percentage margin. Still though, I was worried about the level of competition.

Then, I had an epiphany at 11:30 last night when I was supposed to be going to sleep and getting ready for a long day at work today. The problem with just using field goal percentage is the 3 point line. It revolutionized the game and can be a gigantic equalizer in a tournament game. So I came up with Effective Scoring, a brand new metric that somebody may have come up with before but I’ve never heard of and it asks one simple question; if you gave a team 100 average field goal attempts, given their season performance, how many points would they score?

You basically need three things to complete this analysis; 2 point shooting percentage, 3 point shooting percentage, and the ratio of 2’s to 3’s. In other words, if my team makes 50% of my 2’s and 40% of my 3’s and takes as many 3’s as 2’s, my Effective Scoring (ES from now on) would be 110 points.

My team makes 25-50 from inside the arc (50 points) and 20-50 from outside the arc (60 points). Add them together and you get 110 points.

Another quick example.

Kansas made 724-1384 two point shots (52.3%) and 247-604 three point shots (40.9%). Given these numbers, we can also tell that 69.6% of their field goal attempts were from inside the arc. Then…

(69.6 x 0.523 x 2) + (30.4 x 0.409 x 3) = ES = 110.1

Again, to round out this metric, I did the same analysis for each team’s defense and then took the margin. Theoretically, the best all around teams will have the highest difference between their Offensive ES and their Defensive ES.

However, the problem I had before still plagued me. How do you weed out the teams who put up phenomenal stats against weaker competition such as (no offense) Cornell in the Ivy League? You add a caveat… for instance, if the team with the higher ES margin is more than 50 ranks below their opponent in the RPI, the higher ranked team wins on virtue of playing tougher opponents.

Without further adieu, ON TO THE BRACKETS!!!

MIDWEST REGION

First Round

#1 Kansas (24.1) over #16 Lehigh (6.6)
#8 UNLV (13.5) over #9 Northern Iowa
#5 Michigan State (12.5) over #12 New Mexico State (4.4)
#4 Maryland (15.6) over #13 Houston (-5.3)
#11 San Diego State (12.1) over #6 Tennessee (10.6)
#3 Georgetown (17.8) over #14 Ohio (5.5)
#10 Georgia Tech (15.9) over #7 Oklahoma State (8.3)
#2 Ohio State (18.0) over #15 UC Santa Barbara (7.8)

Second Round

#1 Kansas (24.1) over #8 UNLV (13.5)
#4 Maryland (15.6) over #5 Michigan State (12.5)
#3 Georgetown (17.8) over #11 San Diego State (12.1)
#2 Ohio State (18.0) over #10 Georgia Tech (15.9)

Sweet 16

#1Kansas (24.1) over #4 Maryland (15.6)
#3 Georgetown (17.8) over #2 Ohio State (18.0)

Note: I picked Georgetown over Ohio State since their ES Margins were close but the Hoyas were #7 in the RPI and the Buckeyes were #23.

Elite 8

#1 Kansas (24.1) over #3 Georgetown (17.8)

WEST REGION

First Round

#1 Syracuse (22.4) over #16 Vermont (10.3)
#8 Gonzaga (17.2) over #9 Florida State (15.2)
#12 UTEP (17.6) over #5 Butler (11.3)
#13 Murray State (24.8) over #4 Vanderbilt (12.6)
#6 Xavier (13.7, 19 RPI) over #11 Minnesota (13.9, 62 RPI)
#3 Pittsburgh (10.2) over #14 Oakland (1.0)
#7 BYU (19.2) over #10 Florida (2.5)
#2 Kansas State (7.2, 6 RPI) over #15 North Texas (7.8, 106 RPI)

Second Round

#1 Syracuse (22.4) over #8 Gonzaga (17.2)
#13 Murray State (24.8) over #12 UTEP (17.6)
#6 Xavier (13.7) over #3 Pittsburgh (10.2)
#7 BYU (19.2) over #2 Kansas State (7.2)

Sweet 16

#1 Syracuse (22.4, 5 RPI) over #13 Murray State (24.8, 61 RPI)
#7 BYU (19.2) over #6 Xavier (13.7)

Elite 8

#1 Syracuse (22.4, 5 RPI) over #7 BYU (19.2)

EAST REGION

First Round

#1 Kentucky (19.0) over #16 East Tennessee State (-0.1)
#8 Texas (13.1) over #9 Wake Forest (12.5)
#12 Cornell (19.6) over #5 Temple (13.0)
#4 Wisconsin (11.2) over #13 Wofford (6.1)
#11 Washington (6.4, 42 RPI) over #6 Marquette (6.4, 49 RPI)
#3 New Mexico (3.2, 11 RPI) over #14 Montana (15.7, 99 RPI)
#7 Clemson (9.8) over #10 Missouri (9.4)
#2 West Virginia (3.4) over #15 Morgan State (2.7)

Second Round

#1 Kentucky (19.0) over #8 Texas (13.1)
#12 Cornell (19.6) over #4 Wisconsin (11.2)
#11 Washington (6.4) over #3 New Mexico (3.2)
#7 Clemson (9.8) over #2 West Virginia (3.4)

Sweet 16

#1 Kentucky (19.0, 2 RPI) over #12 Cornell (19.6, 50 RPI)
#7 Clemson (9.8) over #11 Washington (6.4)

Elite 8

#1 Kentucky (19.0, 2 RPI) over #7 Clemson (9.8)

SOUTH REGION

First Round

#1 Duke (12.9) over #16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#8 California (10.1) over #9 Louisville (6.6)
#12 Utah State (19.9) over #5 Texas A&M (6.3)
#4 Purdue (7.9) over #13 Siena (6.8)
#11 ODU (10.1) over #6 Notre Dame (9.4)
#3 Baylor (22.2) over #14 Sam Houston State (11.2)
#10 St. Mary’s (21.1) over #7 Richmond (14.2)
#2 Villanova (11.5) over #15 Robert Morris (4.0)

Second Round

#1 Duke (12.9) over #8 California (10.1)
#12 Utah State (19.9) over #4 Purdue (7.9)
#3 Baylor (22.2) over #11 ODU (10.1)
#10 St. Mary’s (21.1) over #2 Villanova (11.5)

Sweet 16

#12 Utah State (19.9) over #1 Duke (12.9)
#3 Baylor (22.2) over #10 St. Mary’s (21.1)

Elite 8

#3 Baylor (22.2) over #12 Utah State (19.9)


FINAL FOUR

#3 Baylor (22.2) over #1 Kentucky (19.0)
#1 Kansas (24.1) over #1 Syracuse (22.4)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

#1 Kansas (24.1) over #3 Baylor (22.2)

And there you have it, the Jayhawks cut down the nets in Indianapolis…