NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament: A Quantitative Selection

This year I set out to come up with a quantitative way to make my picks. I believe I came up with something… ok… I have a hard time going higher than that.

Wins is far too simple and is inflated to the point that it’s almost not worth keeping track of single season wins records because UCLA won 7 straight national championships and never won more than 30 games including the tournament. Both Kansas and Kentucky entered this year’s bracket with 32 wins.

Points per game, points per game allowed, and scoring margin were also problematic because it’s hard for these to be effective tools without also taking the competition into account. Beating up on weaker teams in a weaker conference will boost all of these metrics.

My next thought was field goal percentage and I felt like I was getting closer to the mark. To round this out, I looked at incorporating field goal defense as well and came up with field goal percentage margin. Still though, I was worried about the level of competition.

Then, I had an epiphany at 11:30 last night when I was supposed to be going to sleep and getting ready for a long day at work today. The problem with just using field goal percentage is the 3 point line. It revolutionized the game and can be a gigantic equalizer in a tournament game. So I came up with Effective Scoring, a brand new metric that somebody may have come up with before but I’ve never heard of and it asks one simple question; if you gave a team 100 average field goal attempts, given their season performance, how many points would they score?

You basically need three things to complete this analysis; 2 point shooting percentage, 3 point shooting percentage, and the ratio of 2’s to 3’s. In other words, if my team makes 50% of my 2’s and 40% of my 3’s and takes as many 3’s as 2’s, my Effective Scoring (ES from now on) would be 110 points.

My team makes 25-50 from inside the arc (50 points) and 20-50 from outside the arc (60 points). Add them together and you get 110 points.

Another quick example.

Kansas made 724-1384 two point shots (52.3%) and 247-604 three point shots (40.9%). Given these numbers, we can also tell that 69.6% of their field goal attempts were from inside the arc. Then…

(69.6 x 0.523 x 2) + (30.4 x 0.409 x 3) = ES = 110.1

Again, to round out this metric, I did the same analysis for each team’s defense and then took the margin. Theoretically, the best all around teams will have the highest difference between their Offensive ES and their Defensive ES.

However, the problem I had before still plagued me. How do you weed out the teams who put up phenomenal stats against weaker competition such as (no offense) Cornell in the Ivy League? You add a caveat… for instance, if the team with the higher ES margin is more than 50 ranks below their opponent in the RPI, the higher ranked team wins on virtue of playing tougher opponents.

Without further adieu, ON TO THE BRACKETS!!!

MIDWEST REGION

First Round

#1 Kansas (24.1) over #16 Lehigh (6.6)
#8 UNLV (13.5) over #9 Northern Iowa
#5 Michigan State (12.5) over #12 New Mexico State (4.4)
#4 Maryland (15.6) over #13 Houston (-5.3)
#11 San Diego State (12.1) over #6 Tennessee (10.6)
#3 Georgetown (17.8) over #14 Ohio (5.5)
#10 Georgia Tech (15.9) over #7 Oklahoma State (8.3)
#2 Ohio State (18.0) over #15 UC Santa Barbara (7.8)

Second Round

#1 Kansas (24.1) over #8 UNLV (13.5)
#4 Maryland (15.6) over #5 Michigan State (12.5)
#3 Georgetown (17.8) over #11 San Diego State (12.1)
#2 Ohio State (18.0) over #10 Georgia Tech (15.9)

Sweet 16

#1Kansas (24.1) over #4 Maryland (15.6)
#3 Georgetown (17.8) over #2 Ohio State (18.0)

Note: I picked Georgetown over Ohio State since their ES Margins were close but the Hoyas were #7 in the RPI and the Buckeyes were #23.

Elite 8

#1 Kansas (24.1) over #3 Georgetown (17.8)

WEST REGION

First Round

#1 Syracuse (22.4) over #16 Vermont (10.3)
#8 Gonzaga (17.2) over #9 Florida State (15.2)
#12 UTEP (17.6) over #5 Butler (11.3)
#13 Murray State (24.8) over #4 Vanderbilt (12.6)
#6 Xavier (13.7, 19 RPI) over #11 Minnesota (13.9, 62 RPI)
#3 Pittsburgh (10.2) over #14 Oakland (1.0)
#7 BYU (19.2) over #10 Florida (2.5)
#2 Kansas State (7.2, 6 RPI) over #15 North Texas (7.8, 106 RPI)

Second Round

#1 Syracuse (22.4) over #8 Gonzaga (17.2)
#13 Murray State (24.8) over #12 UTEP (17.6)
#6 Xavier (13.7) over #3 Pittsburgh (10.2)
#7 BYU (19.2) over #2 Kansas State (7.2)

Sweet 16

#1 Syracuse (22.4, 5 RPI) over #13 Murray State (24.8, 61 RPI)
#7 BYU (19.2) over #6 Xavier (13.7)

Elite 8

#1 Syracuse (22.4, 5 RPI) over #7 BYU (19.2)

EAST REGION

First Round

#1 Kentucky (19.0) over #16 East Tennessee State (-0.1)
#8 Texas (13.1) over #9 Wake Forest (12.5)
#12 Cornell (19.6) over #5 Temple (13.0)
#4 Wisconsin (11.2) over #13 Wofford (6.1)
#11 Washington (6.4, 42 RPI) over #6 Marquette (6.4, 49 RPI)
#3 New Mexico (3.2, 11 RPI) over #14 Montana (15.7, 99 RPI)
#7 Clemson (9.8) over #10 Missouri (9.4)
#2 West Virginia (3.4) over #15 Morgan State (2.7)

Second Round

#1 Kentucky (19.0) over #8 Texas (13.1)
#12 Cornell (19.6) over #4 Wisconsin (11.2)
#11 Washington (6.4) over #3 New Mexico (3.2)
#7 Clemson (9.8) over #2 West Virginia (3.4)

Sweet 16

#1 Kentucky (19.0, 2 RPI) over #12 Cornell (19.6, 50 RPI)
#7 Clemson (9.8) over #11 Washington (6.4)

Elite 8

#1 Kentucky (19.0, 2 RPI) over #7 Clemson (9.8)

SOUTH REGION

First Round

#1 Duke (12.9) over #16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#8 California (10.1) over #9 Louisville (6.6)
#12 Utah State (19.9) over #5 Texas A&M (6.3)
#4 Purdue (7.9) over #13 Siena (6.8)
#11 ODU (10.1) over #6 Notre Dame (9.4)
#3 Baylor (22.2) over #14 Sam Houston State (11.2)
#10 St. Mary’s (21.1) over #7 Richmond (14.2)
#2 Villanova (11.5) over #15 Robert Morris (4.0)

Second Round

#1 Duke (12.9) over #8 California (10.1)
#12 Utah State (19.9) over #4 Purdue (7.9)
#3 Baylor (22.2) over #11 ODU (10.1)
#10 St. Mary’s (21.1) over #2 Villanova (11.5)

Sweet 16

#12 Utah State (19.9) over #1 Duke (12.9)
#3 Baylor (22.2) over #10 St. Mary’s (21.1)

Elite 8

#3 Baylor (22.2) over #12 Utah State (19.9)


FINAL FOUR

#3 Baylor (22.2) over #1 Kentucky (19.0)
#1 Kansas (24.1) over #1 Syracuse (22.4)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

#1 Kansas (24.1) over #3 Baylor (22.2)

And there you have it, the Jayhawks cut down the nets in Indianapolis…