Thursday, July 15, 2010

FIRST HALF REVIEW

Shutouts, no-hitters, and perfect games, oh my! 78 different times in the first half of the season did a starting pitcher throw 9 innings, with a few of them not getting a decision or a complete game due to the other starting pitcher. Of those 78, 37 of them did not allow a single run in those 9 innings and of those, 7 gave up only one hit, two gave up no hits (with a few walks), and two didn’t allow a single baserunner.

So, is this the second coming of the Year of the Pitcher?

Not so fast.

The average GS across baseball in the first half of the season was 50.6. Not exactly an awe-inspiring number. The average line for starters was 6.0-6.0-3.1-2.8-2.1-4.5. In other words, respectable. On average, starting pitchers from April 4th to July 11th averaged a quality start and put up an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.35. You would certainly love to have those numbers somewhere in your rotation but if they’re at the top of your rotation, you’re probably in trouble.

Still, it doesn’t seem to jive that pitchers are averaging a quality start (barely) and there have already been so many outstanding pitching performances this season. The answer is quite simple; for every solid start or tremendous outing, there has been at least one (and sometimes more) games where starters had to struggle for every out they got and there were 4 cases where starters didn’t record a single out (in all fairness to John Maine, he walked one batter before leaving the game while the other three combined to allow 12 hits and 17 runs without getting an out).

In the first half, there were 74 games where starters recorded a GS above 80 with an average GS of 83.9 and an average line of 8.4-2.6-0.2-0.2-1.2-7.8. On the flipside of the coin, there were 119 games where the starter had a GS under 20 (3.2-8.5-7.6-7.2-2.4-2.2 for an average of 12.6) bottoming out on July 10th when Scott Kazmir of the Angels was asked to take a beating to help save the bullpen. All told, his 5.0-11-13-13-3-2 line was “good” for a GS of -8, the worst this year in the majors. The best, on the other hand, went to Roy Halladay, who threw the 20th perfect game in baseball history and nicely trumped Dallas Braden’s perfect game by striking out 11 (to Braden’s 6) for a GS of 98.

THE ALL-STARS

There was a lot of speculation leading up to the All-Star Game about the worthiness of Ubaldo Jimenez and David Price starting for their respective leagues. All I can say is don’t believe it. I can come up with a logical, statistical case for several different pitchers to start the ASG. Does this mean that Jimenez led the National League in average GS? Nope, but neither did Josh Johnson. That distinction goes to Adam Wainwright, who posted an average GS of 64.58. Let me ask you this and try with all your might to take any personal bias out of the equation; could you have picked just one of these three? Here are their average lines without their names.

7.2-5.4-1.8-1.7-1.8-6.7
6.8-4.9-1.4-1.3-1.6-6.8
7.1-4.8-1.7-1.7-2.6-6.3

If you know these three pitchers and their statistical leanings, you might be able to peg which is which. Wainwright is the first one, Josh Johnson is the second (average GS of 64.39), and Ubaldo Jimenez is the third one (average GS of 64.33). From first to third in the National League is 0.25 points. Tell me you can pick one of them over the other two without bias and I’ll say you’re lying. This doesn’t even take into account Roy Halladay, whose GS stands at 62.58. All told this could end up being one of the more interesting Cy Young races ever because right now, I’d call it a four horse race (with all due respect to every other pitcher in the NL).

In the AL, it is much clearer because one guy has been avoiding ball 4 like the plague. In his 14 starts this year, Cliff Lee is 8-4 with a 2.64 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. That becomes much more impressive when you take into account that in his last start (his first with Texas); he threw a complete game, gave up 6 runs, and still only threw 95 pitches. His average GS this year is 63.79, 3.35 points ahead of second place Jon Lester (and still almost a point behind the NL leader). He has walked 6 batters in 112.2 innings while striking out 91.

THE REST

If the season ended today, 110 pitchers would be eligible for the ERA titles (which would go to Josh Johnson and David Price) and those pitchers combined to perform slightly better than the major league average for GS (52.12). This would certainly lead me to believe that for the 8 guys averaging over 60, there have to be some that aren’t pulling their weight.

There are.

Nate Robertson is currently 54th in the NL which, yes, is currently dead last amongst qualified starters. His line of 5.3-5.9-3.6-3.1-2.2-3.0 has led to an average GS of 43.47, a record of 6-7, and a 5.32 ERA. The good news (if you can call it that) is that there are six other pitchers that have done worse than him, all in the AL. Not wanting to drag this out too much more, they are:

Justin Masterson (Indians)
3-8, 5.31 (W-L, ERA)
5.8-6.8-3.8-3.4-2.7-4.6 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-K)
43.17 (Ave. GS)

Brian Bannister (Royals)
7-7, 5.56
5.7-6.6-3.6-3.5-1.9-3.3
43.00

Scott Feldman (Rangers)
5-8, 5.32
6.0-7.8-4.1-3.6-1.8-3.5
42.94

Kevin Millwood (Orioles)
2-8, 5.77
6.0-7.5-4.2-3.8-1.9-4.7

Scott Kazmir (Angels)
7-9, 6.92
5.4-6.0-4.3-4.2-2.9-3.5
40.00

Nick Blackburn (Twins)
7-7, 6.40
5.7-7.9-4.3-4.1-1.6-2.0
37.06

TEAMS

Not surprisingly, the top four teams in average GS have a combined record of 204-148. San Francisco currently leads the way at 54.2 with the Yankees close behind at 54.0. The best team with a losing record is none other than my pick to win the AL West, the Seattle Mariners. Despite their 35-53 record, their starters have had an average GS of 52.9, fifth best in all of baseball. Another run per game out of that offense and they could very well be leading their division, but enough of how wrong I was…

The Pirates have had the worst starting pitching thus far this season and it’s difficult to use a word other than putrid. Their average GS is 42.2 and their ERA is 5.53.

Interestingly, only the Yankees and White Sox lead their division in the standings and are also getting the best starting pitching within the division. These are the current standings with their league rank in average GS in parentheses.

AL East

Yankees 56-32 (2nd)
Rays 54-34 (4th)
Red Sox 51-37 (12th)
Blue Jays 44-45 (21st)
Orioles 29-59 (29th)

AL Central

White Sox 49-38 (9th)
Tigers 48-38 (25th)
Twins 46-42 (18th)
Royals 39-49 (26th)
Indians 34-54 (28th)

AL West

Rangers 50-38 (22nd)
Angels 47-44 (16th)
Athletics 43-46 (11th)
Mariners 35-53 (5th)

NL East

Braves 52-36 (14th)
Mets 48-40 (20th)
Phillies 47-40 (7th)
Marlins 42-46 (15th)
Nationals 39-50 (27th)

NL Central

Reds 49-41 (10th)
Cardinals 47-41 (3rd)
Brewers 40-49 (24th)
Cubs 39-50 (6th)
Astros 36-53 (13th)
Pirates 30-58 (30th)

NL West

Padres 51-37 (8th)
Dodgers 49-39 (17th)
Rockies 49-39 (17th)
Giants 47-41 (1st)
Diamondbacks 34-55 (23rd)

There are many more games to be played and many more shutouts and blowouts to muse over. This is all I have for my first half review but later I’m going to look at my bold predictions and find out just how wrong I actually was (Yankees are in 1st, Phillies 3rd, Mariners last and all were picked to win their division).

Until next time, enjoy the baseball and enjoy the little things like Ubaldo Jimenez’s pursuit of 30 wins, the Padres, Reds, and Rangers trying to prolong their improbable run to division titles, and of course, every single pitch thrown by Stephen Strasburgh.

Isn’t baseball grand?

George Steinbrenner

To be brutally honest, I spent much of my youth thinking that George Steinbrenner embodied everything that was wrong with the modern game of baseball. After getting a little older, mellowing out a bit, and looking at everything objectively, I determined that I could not have been more wrong.

I’ve heard the saying many times “don’t’ hate the player, hate the game”. Even though this quote may not fit Steinbrenner socially, it fit him perfectly as owner of baseball’s flagship franchise. He wanted to win and he did everything he could to help the Yankees win, pushing the team’s payroll up to a major league record $208 million in 2005. Including this year, the Yankees have spent $1.78 billion on payroll and many detractors say this is perfect evidence of the lack of competitive balance in major league baseball. However, in the last ten years (including the unfinished 2010 season) eight different teams have won the World Series, proof that a huge payroll can give you a chance to win it all, but it doesn’t come close to guaranteeing it.

I never knew George Steinbrenner or knew anyone who knew him. The closest I ever got to him was watching his finely tuned product that he put out on the field of play and since that is the best way I can relate to him, that is how I will attempt to put his career with the Yankees into perspective.

Since his purchase of the Yankees, they have put forth a regular season record of 3364-2583-3, good for an average of 88 wins per season. His teams won 100 games 8 times and won 90 games another 11 times. Their .566 winning percentage during his ownership tenure was the best in baseball but as good as the teams he paid for were during the regular season, they were always able to ratchet it up when the stakes were higher.

His Yankees teams went 114-77 in the postseason, including 35-25 in 11 World Series appearances, 7 of which ended with Yankees victories. The Yankees played in 38 postseason series with Steinbrenner as their owner and won an astounding 27 of them.

Many people say that they hate the New York Yankees and they hate its principal architect, George Steinbrenner. I have a very hard time, however, blaming him for something that goes against nothing but the mythical standards of “fair play”. It is nothing short of ludicrous to me that people dislike Steinbrenner because he spends $200 million in payroll every year (or so it seems). Here’s the problem; there’s no salary cap in baseball and he can spend his hard earned money however he wants to.

In my opinion, what most complaints really boil down to is people don’t like Steinbrenner because he’s willing to pay tens of millions of dollars in luxury taxes so he can have the roster that he wants while other owners won’t do that. People are also upset because of the economic benefits to running a successful franchise in New York City versus Kansas City or Pittsburgh (just to name two) and to blame these things on George Steinbrenner is preposterous.

Was he a model human being? From everything I’ve read and heard, he tried to be a good person but he sometimes had a short fuse and was never afraid to speak his mind. Was he good for baseball over the last 38 years? No question about it. The New York Yankees is the only brand in Major League Baseball that can sell around the world. Kids in Japan dream about playing for the Yankees which might be part of the reason why several Japanese imports have ended up there. They are the best and when there’s a standard bearer like that, it gives the other 29 teams something to aspire to. Everyone else knows that the Yankees level of revenue and income are nearly impossible to attain elsewhere but they all dream of having fans that devoted and having the kind of prolonged success that people in the Bronx have.

Steinbrenner increased the value of baseball’s most storied franchise from $8.8 million nearly 40 years ago to $1.6 billion today. Along the way he’s paid millions upon millions in revenue sharing and luxury taxes so his success has lined the pockets of all the other owners out there. It is nothing short of hypocritical to criticize the way he’s run the Yankees while depositing his checks into your bank accounts and into your own franchise.

To sum up, there was a time that George Steinbrenner was public enemy #1 for me but that time is long since past. Other teams have $100 million payrolls and players earning more than $20 million per season. The only difference is that those other teams haven’t been able to find the sustained success of the New York Yankees. So if “The Boss” is guilty of anything, perhaps he’s guilty of being a good businessman.

Rest in Peace
George Steinbrenner
July 4th, 1930 – July 15th, 2010

Sunday, July 11, 2010

LeBron James

First and foremost, it should be mentioned that I am not a fan of the NBA in general. There are several players and coaches that I like and a few teams that are (sometimes) enjoyable to watch play. I will admit that I did watch nearly all of Game 7 of the NBA finals this year (keep in mind that I do not have cable so the opportunity rarely presents itself). I figured that my self-imposed NBA exile, which is going on twelve years now, could have a one night hiatus to watch one of my favorite all time teams (Celtics) battle one of my least favorite teams (Lakers).

Before I get on to the meat of this article, I have to pay homage. Game 7 was a brawl. It was the type of game that I enjoyed playing in when I was in high school because while I never seemed to be able to find a shooting rhythm offensively, physical defense was one of my fortes so I loved watching the Lakers and Celtics trade body-blows for 48 minutes and yes, when all was said and done, the Lakers definitely deserved to win that game.

I’ve watched and followed a lot of great players come and go through the NBA over the past 18 years or so. I distinctly remember watching the Chicago Bulls and the Portland Trailblazers in the Finals, cheering for some guy named Clyde “The Glide” Drexler and watching him get beaten by Michael Jordan. Over the next five or six years I began to appreciate Michael Jordan for what he was and what he brought to his team every night. I watched every game of the NBA Finals after the Bulls won 72 games and then beat my Seattle Supersonics (they were mine at the time). I watched every game the next two years as two of my favorite players of the past twenty years, John Stockton and Karl Malone, tried to punch through the wall that nobody could get through between 1991-1993 and 1996-1998. I feel confident in saying that the Jazz would have won back to back titles in 1997 and 1998 if Jordan had been playing baseball; that team had everything.

Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Tim Duncan, Karl Malone, John Stockton, Shaquille O’Neal, and (sigh) Kobe Bryant have been just a few of the magnificent players that have played in front of my eyes in the time I’ve been aware of the NBA. None of them could hold a candle to the physical gifts of one LeBron James.

Here’s a good way to look at it. Karl Malone, one of the best players in league history, was listed at 6’9” and 250 pounds. He had broad shoulders and was light on his feet but he was a forward. He wasn’t the type of guy that could scramble for a loose ball on the floor in front of the basket, rip it away from an opponent, and then elevate and throw down a two-handed stuff over the opposing shot-blocking center. He would still get two points out of the equation but he would leave you thinking “How can he make that shot right under the hoop when he’s only 6’9” and the opposing center is 7’2” and right next to him?” Trust me, I know because I had that thought I-don’t-know-how-many times in the mid to late 90’s.

By contrast, LeBron James is listed at 6’8” and 240 pounds. Just an inch shorter, just ten pounds lighter. James runs the floor like a point guard, light on his feet and ready to change direction at an instant’s notice. Once he gets the rim into the forefront of his mind, there is very little that you can do to stop him other than… no, I can’t really think of anything. Around the rim, he explodes with a size and strength (not to mention a 44” vertical) that few in NBA history have ever had.

Now that we’ve talked a bit about the meat of this post, it’s time to tackle the gristle. By that, of course, I mean “The Decision”.

Does the prospect of having LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh in the same uniform intrigue me? Absolutely. Does it interest me that all three took less money to play together? Not really because even though it’s been reported that they all left about $15 million on the table, the contracts are still worth roughly $105 million (for Wade) and $110 million (for James and Bosh). While a 12% discount may be significant in the NBA, it means nothing in the real world when it comes to sacrifice. If they wanted to make headlines about taking discounts, I would have loved the three of them to signed for $5 million a year and tell the general manager “go out and get all the pieces that you need to put around us so we can be the Celtics (60’s version) of this generation”. Did that happen? Nope.

Last year, James put forth a ridiculous line of 29.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game. Combining that with Wade’s 26.6-4.8-6.5 and Bosh’s 24.0-10.8-2.4 does make one wonder. How many times in league history has a team had three 20 point-per-game scorers on the same team? Very good question.

In the history of the NBA, a player has averaged 20 or more points per game 1,131 times, from Joe Fulks in the 1946-47 season (23.2 ppg) to the young superstars of today. The first set of teammates to score 20 points per game or more happened in the 1954-55 season when Neil Johnston (22.7) and Paul Arizin (21.0) accomplished the feat. Believe it or not, there have actually been 16 different sets of three teammates that have averaged over 20 points per game in the same season.

1959-60 St. Louis Hawks
Bob Pettit – 26.1
Cliff Hagan – 24.8
Clyde Lovellette – 20.8

1960-61 St. Louis Hawks
Bob Pettit – 27.9
Cliff Hagan – 22.1
Clyde Lovellette – 22.0

1966-1967 Boston Celtics
Sam Jones – 22.1
John Havilcek – 21.4
Bailey Howell – 20.0

1968-69 San Francisco Warriors
Jeff Mullins – 22.8
Nate Thurmond – 21.5
Rudy LaRusso – 20.7

1969-70 Chicago Bulls
Chet Walker – 21.5
Bob Love – 21.0
Clem Haskins – 20.3

1969-70 Phoenix Suns
Connie Hawkins – 24.6
Dick Van Arsdale – 21.3
Gail Goodrich – 20.0

1971-72 Golden State Warriors
Jeff Mullins – 21.5
Cazzie Russell – 21.4
Nate Thurmond – 21.4

1980-81 Denver Nuggets
David Thompson – 25.5
Alex English – 23.8
Dan Issel – 21.9

1981-82 Denver Nuggets
Alex English – 25.4
Dan Issel – 22.9
Kiki Vandeweghe – 21.5

1982-83 Denver Nuggets
Alex English – 28.4
Kiki Vandeweghe – 26.7
Dan Issel – 21.6

1983-84 Philadelphia 76ers
Moses Malone – 22.7
Julius Erving – 22.4
Andrew Toney – 20.4

1986-87 Seattle Supersonics
Dale Ellis – 24.9
Tom Chambers – 23.3
Xavier McDaniel – 23.0

1987-88 Seattle Supersonics
Dale Ellis – 25.8
Xavier McDaniel – 21.4
Tom Chambers – 20.4

1988-89 Phoenix Suns
Tom Chambers – 25.7
Eddie Johnson – 21.5
Kevin Johnson – 20.4

1990-91 Golden State Warriors
Chris Mullin – 25.7
Mitch Richmond – 23.9
Tim Hardaway – 22.9

2007-08 Golden State Warriors
Baron Davis – 21.8
Monta Ellis – 20.2
Stephen Jackson – 20.1

So in other words, having three good scorers actually share the ball isn’t unheard of. However, for the James-Wade-Bosh marriage, I only see two scenarios for how well it will work out.

1) The three of them start bickering about whose team it is and who deserves the most shots/points/dollars, etc. Halfway through the season Pat Riley realizes the magnitude of his mistake and retires. All three have decent statistical years but the Heat go 41-41 and miss the playoffs. Cleveland and Toronto rejoice while the rest of the league looks on in amusement at the situation in Miami.
2) With the addition of a big bruising, 7’, 300 pound center that can’t score worth a lick, Bosh is free to cherry-pick rebounds, outlet the ball to James, who sprints down the court with Wade and another 3-point shooter filling the lanes. Bosh averages 16-14, Wade averages 35-4-4, and James averages his triple double (25-10-12) as the Heat win 65 games. In the playoffs, they don’t change their style of play and keep running up and down the floor and the young legs of LeBron, Dwayne, and Chris (25, 28, and 25) carry the Heat to another title, the first of several during this threesome’s tenure.

Is it going to work? I honestly don’t know. Dwayne Wade and LeBron James are two very unselfish players so I think that they could coexist peacefully. The only question is how the locker room will react when they lose three or four games in a row.

If I was team president Pat Riley, I’d send these three along with head coach Erik Spoelstra somewhere remote where all they had was a gym and I would get the four of them to start game-planning how these three superstars are going to share just one basketball.