So I didn’t write any this past weekend and I was way behind on keeping up with game logs but I think I have a pretty good excuse; I was in Washington surprising my dad for his birthday (Happy b-day again dad! It was a blast!).
Anyways, back to the starting pitchers, not of 2010 this time, but of every year from 1956 to 2009. Now that time period is not arbitrary; it marks the length of time that the Cy Young Award has been handed out at the end of each season, marking pitching excellence within that season. This posting is going to focus on 89 such pitchers. This number is less than two per season for two reasons; first, only one Cy Young Award was given the first few years and two, relievers can’t exactly get a Game Score as a starting pitcher…
89 starting pitchers have won the Cy Young Award for excellence in the past 54 years. The obvious question is who had the best single season as a pitcher? At this point most casual baseball fans and certainly all the hardcore fans will come up with a quick answer; Bob Gibson in 1968, also known as the Year of the Pitcher. Well, without drawing it out too much to artificially increase suspense, you’d be right if you guessed that. Gibson’s average GS over that entire season was 74.18. To give you an idea of just how good that is, so far this season (through May 22nd) there have been 79 games in which a starter posted a GS of 75 or better… out of 1300 games started thus far. In 1968, 19 of Gibson’s 34 starts topped 75 and four of them topped 90.
So that much was obvious. We had one of the most intimidating pitchers in the game’s history pitching from a mountain (as I’m sure 1968 National League hitters would describe the 15 inch mound with Gibson atop it) in a league where only five guys managed to hit above .300. Here’s a tougher question for you; who would be the second best in average GS amongst Cy Young winners?
Casual fans might be able to remember what this guy did to the American League at a time when home runs were flying out of the ballpark at an alarming rate. Hardcore fans should be able to remember that the guy who set the modern (post 1900) record for adjusted ERA+ was Pedro Martinez in 2000 with a mark of 291. That meant that his ERA, adjusted for park factors and the era in which he played, was 191% better (almost three times as good) than the average pitcher. The ERA of Major League Baseball was 4.77 and Pedro’s was 1.74.
Before I go into some more in-depth analysis of these numbers, I want to pause, as I always do, for some completely trivial notes.
- Most wins in a Cy Young season? 31 by Denny McLain in 1968
- Fewest wins in a Cy Young season? 13 by Fernando Valenzuela in the strike shortened 1981 season
- Most strikeouts per start? 10.63 by Randy Johnson in 2001 (372 in 249.2 innings), narrowly edging Pedro Martinez in 1999 (10.55)
- Fewest strikeouts per start? 2.33 by Randy Jones (93 in 315.1 innings)
- Most walks per start? 4.13 by Bob Turley in 1958 (128 in 244.1 IP)
- Fewest walks? 0.82 by Greg Maddux (what a shocker) in 1995 (23 in 209.2 IP)
- Most IP per start? 8.96 by Bob Gibson in 1968 (304.2 IP in 34 starts)
- Fewest IP per start? 6.49 by Roger Clemens in 2004 (214.1 IP in 33 starts)
Now, back to seriousness. In other words, what does all this data mean? I have a feeling that in the end, we’ll discover that even though Game Score is a good overall metric in boiling down an entire start to one number, but there are certain areas where it lacks credibility.
For instance, Bob Gibson had the best average GS in a Cy Young winning season at 74.18 but was his performance in the summer of 1968 the most dominating Cy Young performance in the history of the award? Humbly, I would say no. Those of you who know me know that Bob Gibson is one of my all-time favorite baseball players so it’s incredibly hard for me to say this but I believe it to be true. So why, if he didn’t have the most dominating season ever, did he end up at the top of the heap in the average GS rankings? Because of two words; innings pitched. In ’68, he pitched in 34 games. If he threw 9 innings in every start, that works out to 306 innings pitched. In that season, he missed that total by four outs by throwing 304.2 innings. This is important because the formula for GS rewards you for every out you record with one point and then another two points for every complete inning after the fourth. If you throw 9 innings, you’ll have a GS of 87 before you take into account how good those 9 innings were, as opposed to a 6 inning start where you’re starting from a GS of 72.
Therefore, the easiest way to minimize the impact of innings pitched is simply to take it out of the equation and reward pitchers for their rates per inning. So, to minimize the effect of Gibson throwing so many innings in 1968, I simply prorated all of their stats for a complete game and then recalculated their GS. Obviously, artificially increasing their innings pitched increased their Game Scores but it also showed who did the overall best in allowing the fewest hits, runs, earned runs, and walks, while maximizing their strikeouts.
Not surprisingly, of the ten pitchers most helped by this adjustment, 9 of them were in the past ten years and the lone exception was Pedro Martinez’s season in 1999. To state the obvious again, Bob Gibson’s 1968 season was the least helped by this method since he was already averaging 8.96 innings per start in that season (I’m sorry, I just can’t get over that particular stat).
So, what were the results of this adjustment? Well, Bob Gibson’s 1968 season plummeted from the number 1 spot all the way to the number 2 spot… so yes, he was superb throughout that season. He just wasn’t the best of the Cy Young era. That distinction goes to Pedro Martinez’s 2000 season and the side by side comparison of the two is quite interesting. Gibson allowed more hits per start than Pedro (5.82-4.41) while Pedro allowed more runs (1.52-1.44) and more earned runs (1.45-1.12). The stark difference lies in the fact that Pedro walked only 1.10 batters per start (to Gibson’s mark of 1.82) and he also struck out 9.79 batters per start against Gibson’s 7.88. The only reason Pedro wasn’t on top from the beginning was because he averaged ONLY 7.48 innings per start. Gibson pitched at least 9 innings 26 times and in 4 of those games, he pitched more than 10 innings. Martinez pitched 9 innings just 6 times and never went beyond those 27 outs.
On that last note, I’d like to throw a shout out to one of the most unsung pitching performances in the history of baseball; Steve Carlton’s 1972 season for the abysmal Philles. He went 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA, pitching 30 complete games (8 shutouts) and striking out 310 in 346.1 innings. Why then, with his average GS of 68.44 (good for 9th best) does he deserve this shout out? The Phillies went 59-97 in that season. I’m going to let you do a little math so that can sink in… no, no math?
Ok, no biggie, I already did the math. Every other pitcher on the Phillies staff combined to go 32-87 with a 4.23 ERA and a WHIP of 1.43 versus Carlton’s numbers of 27-10, 1.97, and 0.99. Just how many games would he have won if he played for a contender?
So in conclusion, who among today’s pitchers are stacking up to this historic standard set by former Cy Young Award winners? For ease (more rigorous calculations will be forthcoming in this space) I simply took the top ten starters in ERA. As of now, their average GS are;
69.90 – Ubaldo Jimenez
64.40 – Adam Wainwright
62.56 – Jaime Garcia
61.70 – Roy Oswalt (who sports a lovely 3-6 record)
60.80 – Roy Halladay
59.33 – John Danks (the first AL pitcher on the list)
59.11 – Doug Fister
58.67 – Tim Hudson
57.78 – Livan Hernandez
55.70 – Jon Garland
Interesting food for thought and most definitely, updates in the realm of average GS will be frequent as the season goes on.
That’s all for right now sports fans. I haven’t quite decided what my next column is going to entail but I’m thinking something to do with unbreakable records and what it would actually take to break them in this day and age…
Until next time, I leave you with this couplet, one of my favorites and one that has seen me through many dark times:
Whatever you can do or dream you can, begin it
Boldness has genius, power, and magic in it
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Monday, May 17, 2010
Starting Pitchers 2010 (Entry #4) - Perfection
So again, some of you may notice that I am being less than consistent with what I wanted to be a “weekly” item in this space. However, that ship sailed because there are many wonderful things going on in my life that don’t include strikeouts or game scores or perfection.
However, in my defense, last week ago, my better half had her appendix removed over the weekend so understandably, this column got forgotten. Then last Saturday, my better half and I adopted what is quite possibly the cutest puppy that exists in the world, an adorable 10-week old German Shepherd/Chow Chow mix. So this column got delayed yet again.
NEWS FROM LAST WEEK
On April 17th, Ubaldo Jimenez pitched a no-hitter (more about this later), setting the bar at 88 for highest GS of the season. He held the top spot for 13 days, when Colby Lewis threw 9 shutout innings for a GS of 90 in a no-decision. That was the only GS at or above 90 in the first five weeks of the season. Last week, there were 3 games with a starter earning a GS of 90 or above.
First, Dallas Braden retired 27 Rays batters in order without allowing a baserunner of any kind. Yes, for those of you who read this blog but haven’t been paying attention to baseball recently, he threw the 19th perfect game in Major League Baseball history (more on this later as well). Then, two days later, Johnny Cueto of the Reds came within one measly single of another perfect game. His 9.0-1-0-0-0-8 line also earned him a GS of 93, matching Braden’s mark. Another two days later, Mat Latos of the Padres earned a GS of 91 with a 9.0-1-0-0-0-6 line. Not sure where this is
I’m not sure what is in the water guys are drinking these days but we are being treated to overall better starting pitching so far in May than we were in April. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Two more notes before I move on to the theme for this edition of Starting Pitchers 2010; Brett Cecil of the Blue Jays put forth the worst performance by a starting pitcher this week, earning (I use the term lightly) a GS of 8 (2.0-8-8-8-2-2). However, he didn’t get a win or a loss, since opposing starter Rich Harden allowed 7 runs over 2.2 innings (GS – 19).
Lastly, the Giants owe their most sincere apologies to Jonathon Sanchez. On May 13th, he put forth a line of 8.0-3-1-1-1-5 for a GS of 76… and he got a loss for his trouble. This is the second time that Sanchez has had a GS of over 75 and received a loss (78 on April 20th). Sanchez is so far the only pitcher to lose a game with a GS over 72 and he’s done it twice. Anyways, back to May 13th… on that day Mat Latos threw a shut-out, thus continuing the woes of the Giants whenever some guy named Sanchez starts the game.
FUN WITH PERFECTION (KINDA…)
Since we’ve had two no-hitters this year, I decided to go some digging on that very subject. For reasons that I won’t list here, the only no-hit games that I was able to investigate were those starting in the 1952 season. I didn’t look up how many that left out so don’t ask; it still gave me a pool of 139 no-hitters and 14 perfect games from which to draw conclusions… or at least interesting tidbits.
Highest GS?
On September 9th, 1965, Sandy Koufax threw the fourth and final no-hitter of his illustrious career. He threw a perfect game and struck out 14 for a GS of 101. Matching that feat was Nolan Ryan, who didn’t allow a hit to the Blue Jays on May 1st, 1991. Ryan walked 2 and struck out 16 in what would also be his last (of 7) career no-hitter.
Lowest GS?
55 by Roy Oswalt in 2003. Now, you might be asking yourself how he got such a low score in a no-hitter. Well, he pitched only one inning. The Astros used Oswalt and five relievers in that no-hitter and Oswalt was the starter that night. Anyways, in the spirit of the question, the lowest GS in a 9-inning no-hitter was achieved by Joe Cowley in 1985, George Culver in 1968, and Ken Holtzman in 1969, all of whom earned a GS of 84. Cowley was one of three pitchers to allow an earned run in a no-hitter (9.0-0-1-1-7-8), Culver was one of the other 7 to allow a run of any kind (9.0-0-1-0-5-4), and Holtzman achieved his relatively low GS by not striking out a single batter (9.0-0-0-0-3-0).
Most Walks in a No-Hitter?
10, by Steve Barber in 1967 and Jim Maloney in 1965. The biggest difference is while Barber couldn’t get the last out of his no-hitter (8.2-0-2-1-10-3), Maloney managed to be the only pitcher since 1952 to throw a no-hitter and record more than 27 outs (10.0-0-0-0-10-12).
Most Strikeouts in a No-Hitter?
5 times has a pitcher allowed no hits and struck out 15 or more batters and Nolan Ryan did it three times. Ryan put together a line of 9.0-0-0-0-4-17 in 1973 (100) and a line of 9.0-0-0-0-2-16 (101) in 1991. After that, Ryan (9.0-0-0-0-8-15), Don Wilson (9.0-0-0-0-3-15), and Warren Spahn (9.0-0-0-0-2-15) have all struck out 15 batters in a no-hitter.
So where do Jimenez and Braden rank (by GS) amongst these performances? Ubaldo Jimenez’s no-hitter produced the 116th highest GS out of 139 games, mostly due to his 6 walks, tied for 12th highest amongst no-hitters.
Braden’s perfecto ranks 63rd, largely due to the fact that he “only” struck out 6 batters. By comparison, in the 14 perfects games since 1952, the starter has averaged 9.2 strikeouts and only Mark Buehrle (6) and Dennis Martinez (5) struck out as few batters as Braden.
Lastly, those 139 no-hitters produced an average GS of 89.1, with an average line of 8.8-0.0-0.1-0.0-2.8-7.5.
That’s all for this installment ladies and gentlemen, but next up, I’m going to examine Cy Young award winners by average GS over the course of their Cy Young winning season. Out of curiosity, who do you think will be highest?
However, in my defense, last week ago, my better half had her appendix removed over the weekend so understandably, this column got forgotten. Then last Saturday, my better half and I adopted what is quite possibly the cutest puppy that exists in the world, an adorable 10-week old German Shepherd/Chow Chow mix. So this column got delayed yet again.
NEWS FROM LAST WEEK
On April 17th, Ubaldo Jimenez pitched a no-hitter (more about this later), setting the bar at 88 for highest GS of the season. He held the top spot for 13 days, when Colby Lewis threw 9 shutout innings for a GS of 90 in a no-decision. That was the only GS at or above 90 in the first five weeks of the season. Last week, there were 3 games with a starter earning a GS of 90 or above.
First, Dallas Braden retired 27 Rays batters in order without allowing a baserunner of any kind. Yes, for those of you who read this blog but haven’t been paying attention to baseball recently, he threw the 19th perfect game in Major League Baseball history (more on this later as well). Then, two days later, Johnny Cueto of the Reds came within one measly single of another perfect game. His 9.0-1-0-0-0-8 line also earned him a GS of 93, matching Braden’s mark. Another two days later, Mat Latos of the Padres earned a GS of 91 with a 9.0-1-0-0-0-6 line. Not sure where this is
I’m not sure what is in the water guys are drinking these days but we are being treated to overall better starting pitching so far in May than we were in April. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Two more notes before I move on to the theme for this edition of Starting Pitchers 2010; Brett Cecil of the Blue Jays put forth the worst performance by a starting pitcher this week, earning (I use the term lightly) a GS of 8 (2.0-8-8-8-2-2). However, he didn’t get a win or a loss, since opposing starter Rich Harden allowed 7 runs over 2.2 innings (GS – 19).
Lastly, the Giants owe their most sincere apologies to Jonathon Sanchez. On May 13th, he put forth a line of 8.0-3-1-1-1-5 for a GS of 76… and he got a loss for his trouble. This is the second time that Sanchez has had a GS of over 75 and received a loss (78 on April 20th). Sanchez is so far the only pitcher to lose a game with a GS over 72 and he’s done it twice. Anyways, back to May 13th… on that day Mat Latos threw a shut-out, thus continuing the woes of the Giants whenever some guy named Sanchez starts the game.
FUN WITH PERFECTION (KINDA…)
Since we’ve had two no-hitters this year, I decided to go some digging on that very subject. For reasons that I won’t list here, the only no-hit games that I was able to investigate were those starting in the 1952 season. I didn’t look up how many that left out so don’t ask; it still gave me a pool of 139 no-hitters and 14 perfect games from which to draw conclusions… or at least interesting tidbits.
Highest GS?
On September 9th, 1965, Sandy Koufax threw the fourth and final no-hitter of his illustrious career. He threw a perfect game and struck out 14 for a GS of 101. Matching that feat was Nolan Ryan, who didn’t allow a hit to the Blue Jays on May 1st, 1991. Ryan walked 2 and struck out 16 in what would also be his last (of 7) career no-hitter.
Lowest GS?
55 by Roy Oswalt in 2003. Now, you might be asking yourself how he got such a low score in a no-hitter. Well, he pitched only one inning. The Astros used Oswalt and five relievers in that no-hitter and Oswalt was the starter that night. Anyways, in the spirit of the question, the lowest GS in a 9-inning no-hitter was achieved by Joe Cowley in 1985, George Culver in 1968, and Ken Holtzman in 1969, all of whom earned a GS of 84. Cowley was one of three pitchers to allow an earned run in a no-hitter (9.0-0-1-1-7-8), Culver was one of the other 7 to allow a run of any kind (9.0-0-1-0-5-4), and Holtzman achieved his relatively low GS by not striking out a single batter (9.0-0-0-0-3-0).
Most Walks in a No-Hitter?
10, by Steve Barber in 1967 and Jim Maloney in 1965. The biggest difference is while Barber couldn’t get the last out of his no-hitter (8.2-0-2-1-10-3), Maloney managed to be the only pitcher since 1952 to throw a no-hitter and record more than 27 outs (10.0-0-0-0-10-12).
Most Strikeouts in a No-Hitter?
5 times has a pitcher allowed no hits and struck out 15 or more batters and Nolan Ryan did it three times. Ryan put together a line of 9.0-0-0-0-4-17 in 1973 (100) and a line of 9.0-0-0-0-2-16 (101) in 1991. After that, Ryan (9.0-0-0-0-8-15), Don Wilson (9.0-0-0-0-3-15), and Warren Spahn (9.0-0-0-0-2-15) have all struck out 15 batters in a no-hitter.
So where do Jimenez and Braden rank (by GS) amongst these performances? Ubaldo Jimenez’s no-hitter produced the 116th highest GS out of 139 games, mostly due to his 6 walks, tied for 12th highest amongst no-hitters.
Braden’s perfecto ranks 63rd, largely due to the fact that he “only” struck out 6 batters. By comparison, in the 14 perfects games since 1952, the starter has averaged 9.2 strikeouts and only Mark Buehrle (6) and Dennis Martinez (5) struck out as few batters as Braden.
Lastly, those 139 no-hitters produced an average GS of 89.1, with an average line of 8.8-0.0-0.1-0.0-2.8-7.5.
That’s all for this installment ladies and gentlemen, but next up, I’m going to examine Cy Young award winners by average GS over the course of their Cy Young winning season. Out of curiosity, who do you think will be highest?
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Starting Pitchers 2010 (Entry #3) - April Edition
Unfortunately, this is only entry #3 and not #4, as it should be. I’d make some excuse for why I didn’t finish my entry last week except… well, it’d probably be a lame excuse and I can’t remember anyways.
But enough of that! This week ended the month of April and that means we have added inane statistical analysis to do, finding meaning out of a jumble of number (ok meaning might be going a bit too far but we are searching for patterns).
Before any of you who are looking at a calendar write in and yell at me for what I’m about to do, I realize that the first day of May is included with all of these April games. In short, I don’t care. I’m probably going to try to do something along these lines every month and by that I mean every four weeks. If a couple days worth of games get lumped into a different month, so be it.
Without further adieu, on to the games!
In the first three weeks of the regular season, the highest GS was 88 (Ubaldo Jimenez’s no-hitter) and the lowest was 8 (Jeremy Bonderman’s bomb against Seattle). It seemed as if that lower number was unattainable, as five different pitchers had put up a GS of 9 but nobody had matched Bonderman’s ineptitude on the 16th of April… until this week, that is. Joel Pineiro posted a GS of 2 (3.1-10-10-9-1-1) and Luke Hochevar put up a GS of -1 (2.1-11-9-9-2-1) but neither matched what Edwin Jackson of the Diamondbacks did against the Rockies. He recorded 7 outs and allowed 10 earned runs on 11 hits with a pair of walks and strikeouts. The dismal 2.1-11-10-10-2-2 line gave him a Game Score of -5, a new low for the season.
On the flip side of the coin, we were treated to the best combined pitcher’s duel yet this season by quite a wide margin. On one side, former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee came back from his abdominal strain and posted a very strong first outing of the season, with a 7.0-3-0-0-0-8 line and a GS of 79. Unfortunately for Lee, he was unable to win his first start of the season because Colby Lewis of the Rangers was even better. He pitched 9 shutout innings, allowing 3 hits, walking one and striking out 10, for a GS of 90, the best mark to date this season. To sum up the game, neither offense could scratch across a run until the 12th inning so the two starting pitchers, who combined for a GS of 169, both got a no-decision.
The Rangers offense should be particularly embarrassed on Lewis’ behalf because of the 18 other starting pitchers who have combined for 19 starts with a GS over 80 (Roy Halladay is the only pitcher with two such starts), Lewis is the only one who did not receive a W for his gem.
In the interest of completeness, I must mention the other side of the spectrum. If you are a fan or family member of Pirates pitcher Charlie Morton, please look away now. 35 pitchers have combined to throw 36 games with a GS under 20 and yes, Charlie Morton is the only one to do it twice (15 and 17). Miraculously, seven of the pitchers with a GS this low did not receive a loss, including Josh Beckett, who posted a GS of 9 and still didn’t take the loss. Of course, this was largely due to the fact that the Red Sox offense forced Blue Jays starter Dana Eveland into a GS of 15 (Eveland also received a no-decision). Not that I mean to add more insult to injury, but that combined GS of 24 is the lowest so far this year.
To recap, the first month of the season is over and instead of highlighting individuals as I did last week, I’m going to highlight teams this week. On that note, I would like to apologize to Roy Halladay, who posted a GS of 42 right after I praised his amazing performance so far this year. My guilt was significantly diminished, however, when in his next start, he threw a 3-hit shutout against the Mets and had a season high in GS (86). But enough of that, on to the teams. I am willing to bet that if I gave you ten guesses, you could not get the team that leads the league in starter’s ERA. Nope, not the Yankees (they rank 7th). Not the Phillies either (11th). Three teams have starting pitchers with a combined ERA under 3 and they are the Rays (2.76), the Cardinals (2.67), and the Giants (2.43), largely due to their two-time Cy Young winner (Lincecum) and their former Cy Young winner (Zito) who remembered how to pitch like one. On the other end, the Reds are 29th in starter’s ERA at 5.64, but they have a long way to go to catch the Pirates, whose starters are allowing 7.42 earned runs per 9 innings (not that they have any complete games or anything…). Not surprisingly, the Giants (61.3), Rays (57.8), and Cardinals (57.3) rank 1-2-3 in average GS as well and the Reds (43.5) and Pirates (36.2) rank 29th and 30th.
A few more statistical oddities before I sign off for the day…
Is there an advantage to being in your home ballpark and being able to get ready to pitch in your clubhouse, your bullpen, etc.?
In principle, I’m willing to go as far as maybe but statistically, there is a slight edge in GS between pitching at home versus on the road (49.8-47.0). The margins in other metrics are much more pronounced, as pitchers at home have a better record (126-107 vs. 114-124), a better ERA (4.00-4.58), and a better WHIP (1.31-1.44).
How important is it for a starting pitcher to throw at least 6 innings, in this day and age?
This is by far the most subjective of any question that I will ask with the intention of immediately answering (at least today). How much does it matter? A lot of that depends on the individual manager. A manager with a notoriously quick hook is probably going to have a bullpen full of robust arms that can go out there and get anywhere from 3-6 outs every other day. On his team, his bullpen is more important than his rotation. If you were cursed with the same affliction as former Diamondbacks manager Bob Brenly in 2001, the bottom of your rotation wasn’t terribly important because your bullpen was rested from the days when Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling took the hill.
This year thus far, pitchers have lasted at least 6 innings 445 times and have failed to reach that mark 275 times. The former group is 201-94 with a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an average GS of 57.4. The latter group has marks of 39-137, 8.00, 1.99, and 35.0 for those statistical categories. I’m not saying that if you automatically leave a pitcher in for six innings, his numbers will start to look a lot better. All I’m saying is if you look at the average line of the starters for the Tampa Bay Rays (6.4-5.2-2.0-2.0-2.3-5.4), it’s no wonder that this team is 17-7 even before you look at their bullpen, their defense, or their offense.
Just how important are strikeouts?
This is one question where the answer blatantly contradicts the small amount of data that I analyzed. First, the numbers. Pitchers who have averaged at least a strikeout per inning had a higher average GS than those who didn’t (52.0-46.8). Pitchers who struck out at least 10 batters had an average GS much higher than the overall average (71.9-48.4) and in the 25 games where a pitcher has at least 10 strikeouts, those pitchers are 17-2 with a 1.78 ERA.
Secondly, the analysis. Right off the bat, this is a bad metric to use when you are comparing different types of pitchers. Randy Johnson will always have a leg up on Greg Maddux in the land of GS because strikeouts give you a point and groundouts do not. In 1994, Greg Maddux was 16-6 with an ERA of 1.56 and his average GS was 68.9. In 2001, Randy Johnson went 21-6 with a 2.49 ERA and an average GS of 67.5. Despite his ERA being nearly a run lower and his WHIP being over 10% better (0.896-1.009), his average GS was just under 1.5 points better. Why is that? Because Randy Johnson average 10.6 strikeouts per start and Maddux averaged 6.2. If you take that one stat out of the GS calculation, the margin in average GS goes to 5.8 (62.7-56.9).
Thirdly, the verdict, how important are strikeouts? Well, an out is an out. Strikeouts are also the play that make it the most difficult to reach base. The only way to reach base is through a dropped third strike, which doesn’t happen very often. I would say that strikeouts by themselves are not important. Ground balls and fly balls keep the defense in the game and oftentimes, the best defense is played behind a pitcher that puts the ball in play. However, the ability to get a strikeout when you really need one is very important and in my opinion is one of the biggest differences between minor league pitchers and major league pitchers.
Men at second and third, one out, bottom of the 8th inning, up 3-2. A fly ball has the potential to turn into a sacrifice fly or even worse, a two-run error. A ground ball has the potential to score a run as well and if the play is botched, it can score two runs. Both of those scenarios have a worst case of the score going from 3-2 ahead to 4-3 behind. If you have the ability to strike out a batter when you really need it, the best case is an out where nobody can advance. That way there are two outs and the only way those runners can score is by a hit or an error. The worst case scenario is a wild pitch or a passed ball and in that case only one run will score and the tie can be preserved. The ability to make a pitch on command and strike the batter out is far more important than whether or not you average a certain number of strikeouts per inning or per game.
Well, that’s all for this week ladies and gentlemen but stay tuned, as I’ll be back next week with more trivial statistical nonsense next week (unless I forget).
But enough of that! This week ended the month of April and that means we have added inane statistical analysis to do, finding meaning out of a jumble of number (ok meaning might be going a bit too far but we are searching for patterns).
Before any of you who are looking at a calendar write in and yell at me for what I’m about to do, I realize that the first day of May is included with all of these April games. In short, I don’t care. I’m probably going to try to do something along these lines every month and by that I mean every four weeks. If a couple days worth of games get lumped into a different month, so be it.
Without further adieu, on to the games!
In the first three weeks of the regular season, the highest GS was 88 (Ubaldo Jimenez’s no-hitter) and the lowest was 8 (Jeremy Bonderman’s bomb against Seattle). It seemed as if that lower number was unattainable, as five different pitchers had put up a GS of 9 but nobody had matched Bonderman’s ineptitude on the 16th of April… until this week, that is. Joel Pineiro posted a GS of 2 (3.1-10-10-9-1-1) and Luke Hochevar put up a GS of -1 (2.1-11-9-9-2-1) but neither matched what Edwin Jackson of the Diamondbacks did against the Rockies. He recorded 7 outs and allowed 10 earned runs on 11 hits with a pair of walks and strikeouts. The dismal 2.1-11-10-10-2-2 line gave him a Game Score of -5, a new low for the season.
On the flip side of the coin, we were treated to the best combined pitcher’s duel yet this season by quite a wide margin. On one side, former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee came back from his abdominal strain and posted a very strong first outing of the season, with a 7.0-3-0-0-0-8 line and a GS of 79. Unfortunately for Lee, he was unable to win his first start of the season because Colby Lewis of the Rangers was even better. He pitched 9 shutout innings, allowing 3 hits, walking one and striking out 10, for a GS of 90, the best mark to date this season. To sum up the game, neither offense could scratch across a run until the 12th inning so the two starting pitchers, who combined for a GS of 169, both got a no-decision.
The Rangers offense should be particularly embarrassed on Lewis’ behalf because of the 18 other starting pitchers who have combined for 19 starts with a GS over 80 (Roy Halladay is the only pitcher with two such starts), Lewis is the only one who did not receive a W for his gem.
In the interest of completeness, I must mention the other side of the spectrum. If you are a fan or family member of Pirates pitcher Charlie Morton, please look away now. 35 pitchers have combined to throw 36 games with a GS under 20 and yes, Charlie Morton is the only one to do it twice (15 and 17). Miraculously, seven of the pitchers with a GS this low did not receive a loss, including Josh Beckett, who posted a GS of 9 and still didn’t take the loss. Of course, this was largely due to the fact that the Red Sox offense forced Blue Jays starter Dana Eveland into a GS of 15 (Eveland also received a no-decision). Not that I mean to add more insult to injury, but that combined GS of 24 is the lowest so far this year.
To recap, the first month of the season is over and instead of highlighting individuals as I did last week, I’m going to highlight teams this week. On that note, I would like to apologize to Roy Halladay, who posted a GS of 42 right after I praised his amazing performance so far this year. My guilt was significantly diminished, however, when in his next start, he threw a 3-hit shutout against the Mets and had a season high in GS (86). But enough of that, on to the teams. I am willing to bet that if I gave you ten guesses, you could not get the team that leads the league in starter’s ERA. Nope, not the Yankees (they rank 7th). Not the Phillies either (11th). Three teams have starting pitchers with a combined ERA under 3 and they are the Rays (2.76), the Cardinals (2.67), and the Giants (2.43), largely due to their two-time Cy Young winner (Lincecum) and their former Cy Young winner (Zito) who remembered how to pitch like one. On the other end, the Reds are 29th in starter’s ERA at 5.64, but they have a long way to go to catch the Pirates, whose starters are allowing 7.42 earned runs per 9 innings (not that they have any complete games or anything…). Not surprisingly, the Giants (61.3), Rays (57.8), and Cardinals (57.3) rank 1-2-3 in average GS as well and the Reds (43.5) and Pirates (36.2) rank 29th and 30th.
A few more statistical oddities before I sign off for the day…
Is there an advantage to being in your home ballpark and being able to get ready to pitch in your clubhouse, your bullpen, etc.?
In principle, I’m willing to go as far as maybe but statistically, there is a slight edge in GS between pitching at home versus on the road (49.8-47.0). The margins in other metrics are much more pronounced, as pitchers at home have a better record (126-107 vs. 114-124), a better ERA (4.00-4.58), and a better WHIP (1.31-1.44).
How important is it for a starting pitcher to throw at least 6 innings, in this day and age?
This is by far the most subjective of any question that I will ask with the intention of immediately answering (at least today). How much does it matter? A lot of that depends on the individual manager. A manager with a notoriously quick hook is probably going to have a bullpen full of robust arms that can go out there and get anywhere from 3-6 outs every other day. On his team, his bullpen is more important than his rotation. If you were cursed with the same affliction as former Diamondbacks manager Bob Brenly in 2001, the bottom of your rotation wasn’t terribly important because your bullpen was rested from the days when Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling took the hill.
This year thus far, pitchers have lasted at least 6 innings 445 times and have failed to reach that mark 275 times. The former group is 201-94 with a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an average GS of 57.4. The latter group has marks of 39-137, 8.00, 1.99, and 35.0 for those statistical categories. I’m not saying that if you automatically leave a pitcher in for six innings, his numbers will start to look a lot better. All I’m saying is if you look at the average line of the starters for the Tampa Bay Rays (6.4-5.2-2.0-2.0-2.3-5.4), it’s no wonder that this team is 17-7 even before you look at their bullpen, their defense, or their offense.
Just how important are strikeouts?
This is one question where the answer blatantly contradicts the small amount of data that I analyzed. First, the numbers. Pitchers who have averaged at least a strikeout per inning had a higher average GS than those who didn’t (52.0-46.8). Pitchers who struck out at least 10 batters had an average GS much higher than the overall average (71.9-48.4) and in the 25 games where a pitcher has at least 10 strikeouts, those pitchers are 17-2 with a 1.78 ERA.
Secondly, the analysis. Right off the bat, this is a bad metric to use when you are comparing different types of pitchers. Randy Johnson will always have a leg up on Greg Maddux in the land of GS because strikeouts give you a point and groundouts do not. In 1994, Greg Maddux was 16-6 with an ERA of 1.56 and his average GS was 68.9. In 2001, Randy Johnson went 21-6 with a 2.49 ERA and an average GS of 67.5. Despite his ERA being nearly a run lower and his WHIP being over 10% better (0.896-1.009), his average GS was just under 1.5 points better. Why is that? Because Randy Johnson average 10.6 strikeouts per start and Maddux averaged 6.2. If you take that one stat out of the GS calculation, the margin in average GS goes to 5.8 (62.7-56.9).
Thirdly, the verdict, how important are strikeouts? Well, an out is an out. Strikeouts are also the play that make it the most difficult to reach base. The only way to reach base is through a dropped third strike, which doesn’t happen very often. I would say that strikeouts by themselves are not important. Ground balls and fly balls keep the defense in the game and oftentimes, the best defense is played behind a pitcher that puts the ball in play. However, the ability to get a strikeout when you really need one is very important and in my opinion is one of the biggest differences between minor league pitchers and major league pitchers.
Men at second and third, one out, bottom of the 8th inning, up 3-2. A fly ball has the potential to turn into a sacrifice fly or even worse, a two-run error. A ground ball has the potential to score a run as well and if the play is botched, it can score two runs. Both of those scenarios have a worst case of the score going from 3-2 ahead to 4-3 behind. If you have the ability to strike out a batter when you really need it, the best case is an out where nobody can advance. That way there are two outs and the only way those runners can score is by a hit or an error. The worst case scenario is a wild pitch or a passed ball and in that case only one run will score and the tie can be preserved. The ability to make a pitch on command and strike the batter out is far more important than whether or not you average a certain number of strikeouts per inning or per game.
Well, that’s all for this week ladies and gentlemen but stay tuned, as I’ll be back next week with more trivial statistical nonsense next week (unless I forget).
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