Unfortunately, this is only entry #3 and not #4, as it should be. I’d make some excuse for why I didn’t finish my entry last week except… well, it’d probably be a lame excuse and I can’t remember anyways.
But enough of that! This week ended the month of April and that means we have added inane statistical analysis to do, finding meaning out of a jumble of number (ok meaning might be going a bit too far but we are searching for patterns).
Before any of you who are looking at a calendar write in and yell at me for what I’m about to do, I realize that the first day of May is included with all of these April games. In short, I don’t care. I’m probably going to try to do something along these lines every month and by that I mean every four weeks. If a couple days worth of games get lumped into a different month, so be it.
Without further adieu, on to the games!
In the first three weeks of the regular season, the highest GS was 88 (Ubaldo Jimenez’s no-hitter) and the lowest was 8 (Jeremy Bonderman’s bomb against Seattle). It seemed as if that lower number was unattainable, as five different pitchers had put up a GS of 9 but nobody had matched Bonderman’s ineptitude on the 16th of April… until this week, that is. Joel Pineiro posted a GS of 2 (3.1-10-10-9-1-1) and Luke Hochevar put up a GS of -1 (2.1-11-9-9-2-1) but neither matched what Edwin Jackson of the Diamondbacks did against the Rockies. He recorded 7 outs and allowed 10 earned runs on 11 hits with a pair of walks and strikeouts. The dismal 2.1-11-10-10-2-2 line gave him a Game Score of -5, a new low for the season.
On the flip side of the coin, we were treated to the best combined pitcher’s duel yet this season by quite a wide margin. On one side, former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee came back from his abdominal strain and posted a very strong first outing of the season, with a 7.0-3-0-0-0-8 line and a GS of 79. Unfortunately for Lee, he was unable to win his first start of the season because Colby Lewis of the Rangers was even better. He pitched 9 shutout innings, allowing 3 hits, walking one and striking out 10, for a GS of 90, the best mark to date this season. To sum up the game, neither offense could scratch across a run until the 12th inning so the two starting pitchers, who combined for a GS of 169, both got a no-decision.
The Rangers offense should be particularly embarrassed on Lewis’ behalf because of the 18 other starting pitchers who have combined for 19 starts with a GS over 80 (Roy Halladay is the only pitcher with two such starts), Lewis is the only one who did not receive a W for his gem.
In the interest of completeness, I must mention the other side of the spectrum. If you are a fan or family member of Pirates pitcher Charlie Morton, please look away now. 35 pitchers have combined to throw 36 games with a GS under 20 and yes, Charlie Morton is the only one to do it twice (15 and 17). Miraculously, seven of the pitchers with a GS this low did not receive a loss, including Josh Beckett, who posted a GS of 9 and still didn’t take the loss. Of course, this was largely due to the fact that the Red Sox offense forced Blue Jays starter Dana Eveland into a GS of 15 (Eveland also received a no-decision). Not that I mean to add more insult to injury, but that combined GS of 24 is the lowest so far this year.
To recap, the first month of the season is over and instead of highlighting individuals as I did last week, I’m going to highlight teams this week. On that note, I would like to apologize to Roy Halladay, who posted a GS of 42 right after I praised his amazing performance so far this year. My guilt was significantly diminished, however, when in his next start, he threw a 3-hit shutout against the Mets and had a season high in GS (86). But enough of that, on to the teams. I am willing to bet that if I gave you ten guesses, you could not get the team that leads the league in starter’s ERA. Nope, not the Yankees (they rank 7th). Not the Phillies either (11th). Three teams have starting pitchers with a combined ERA under 3 and they are the Rays (2.76), the Cardinals (2.67), and the Giants (2.43), largely due to their two-time Cy Young winner (Lincecum) and their former Cy Young winner (Zito) who remembered how to pitch like one. On the other end, the Reds are 29th in starter’s ERA at 5.64, but they have a long way to go to catch the Pirates, whose starters are allowing 7.42 earned runs per 9 innings (not that they have any complete games or anything…). Not surprisingly, the Giants (61.3), Rays (57.8), and Cardinals (57.3) rank 1-2-3 in average GS as well and the Reds (43.5) and Pirates (36.2) rank 29th and 30th.
A few more statistical oddities before I sign off for the day…
Is there an advantage to being in your home ballpark and being able to get ready to pitch in your clubhouse, your bullpen, etc.?
In principle, I’m willing to go as far as maybe but statistically, there is a slight edge in GS between pitching at home versus on the road (49.8-47.0). The margins in other metrics are much more pronounced, as pitchers at home have a better record (126-107 vs. 114-124), a better ERA (4.00-4.58), and a better WHIP (1.31-1.44).
How important is it for a starting pitcher to throw at least 6 innings, in this day and age?
This is by far the most subjective of any question that I will ask with the intention of immediately answering (at least today). How much does it matter? A lot of that depends on the individual manager. A manager with a notoriously quick hook is probably going to have a bullpen full of robust arms that can go out there and get anywhere from 3-6 outs every other day. On his team, his bullpen is more important than his rotation. If you were cursed with the same affliction as former Diamondbacks manager Bob Brenly in 2001, the bottom of your rotation wasn’t terribly important because your bullpen was rested from the days when Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling took the hill.
This year thus far, pitchers have lasted at least 6 innings 445 times and have failed to reach that mark 275 times. The former group is 201-94 with a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an average GS of 57.4. The latter group has marks of 39-137, 8.00, 1.99, and 35.0 for those statistical categories. I’m not saying that if you automatically leave a pitcher in for six innings, his numbers will start to look a lot better. All I’m saying is if you look at the average line of the starters for the Tampa Bay Rays (6.4-5.2-2.0-2.0-2.3-5.4), it’s no wonder that this team is 17-7 even before you look at their bullpen, their defense, or their offense.
Just how important are strikeouts?
This is one question where the answer blatantly contradicts the small amount of data that I analyzed. First, the numbers. Pitchers who have averaged at least a strikeout per inning had a higher average GS than those who didn’t (52.0-46.8). Pitchers who struck out at least 10 batters had an average GS much higher than the overall average (71.9-48.4) and in the 25 games where a pitcher has at least 10 strikeouts, those pitchers are 17-2 with a 1.78 ERA.
Secondly, the analysis. Right off the bat, this is a bad metric to use when you are comparing different types of pitchers. Randy Johnson will always have a leg up on Greg Maddux in the land of GS because strikeouts give you a point and groundouts do not. In 1994, Greg Maddux was 16-6 with an ERA of 1.56 and his average GS was 68.9. In 2001, Randy Johnson went 21-6 with a 2.49 ERA and an average GS of 67.5. Despite his ERA being nearly a run lower and his WHIP being over 10% better (0.896-1.009), his average GS was just under 1.5 points better. Why is that? Because Randy Johnson average 10.6 strikeouts per start and Maddux averaged 6.2. If you take that one stat out of the GS calculation, the margin in average GS goes to 5.8 (62.7-56.9).
Thirdly, the verdict, how important are strikeouts? Well, an out is an out. Strikeouts are also the play that make it the most difficult to reach base. The only way to reach base is through a dropped third strike, which doesn’t happen very often. I would say that strikeouts by themselves are not important. Ground balls and fly balls keep the defense in the game and oftentimes, the best defense is played behind a pitcher that puts the ball in play. However, the ability to get a strikeout when you really need one is very important and in my opinion is one of the biggest differences between minor league pitchers and major league pitchers.
Men at second and third, one out, bottom of the 8th inning, up 3-2. A fly ball has the potential to turn into a sacrifice fly or even worse, a two-run error. A ground ball has the potential to score a run as well and if the play is botched, it can score two runs. Both of those scenarios have a worst case of the score going from 3-2 ahead to 4-3 behind. If you have the ability to strike out a batter when you really need it, the best case is an out where nobody can advance. That way there are two outs and the only way those runners can score is by a hit or an error. The worst case scenario is a wild pitch or a passed ball and in that case only one run will score and the tie can be preserved. The ability to make a pitch on command and strike the batter out is far more important than whether or not you average a certain number of strikeouts per inning or per game.
Well, that’s all for this week ladies and gentlemen but stay tuned, as I’ll be back next week with more trivial statistical nonsense next week (unless I forget).
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