Of the five match-ups in the BCS, perhaps the most interesting one is that which will take place between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl, January 1st at 8:30 PM Eastern time. For the first twelve games of the season, these two teams could not have been more different with the exception of their records. Florida was looking for their third national title in four years and Tim Tebow was looking for his second Heisman trophy, trying to become the second player ever to achieve that feat. On the other hand, Cincinnati has been struggling for the spotlight in the Big East, seen by many as one of the weaker Automatic Qualifying conferences. However, the biggest questions surrounding this game have nothing to do with x’s and o’s, offensive or defensive rankings, or Heisman finalists or snubs.
The biggest question about this game is motivation. On the side of Florida, there is the fact that before this game is even played, many consider this season a disappointment. Not that it needs to be said again but in the past three years, the Gators won two national titles, Tebow won the Heisman, and most importantly, Tebow and Brandon Spikes both came back for their senior years. The Gators returned 11 defensive starters from a team that throttled Oklahoma’s record setting offense in the National Title game a year ago. At this point, for this group of players, there is very little that they haven’t already done. For all the freshmen, they have three more years to make their own mark. Whether they win or lose the Sugar Bowl, the Florida squad’s place in history will be roughly the same.
For Cincinnati, the source of their distraction is the University of Notre Dame. Given the coverage in the media, it very much seemed as if Head Coach Brian Kelly was simply going to humor Notre Dame officials and was inevitably going to turn them down and try to maintain this level of success at Cincinnati. Whether it was the prestige of the Golden Dome, the challenge of bringing a winner to South Bend, Indiana, or simply the pocketbook of Notre Dame, something convinced Kelly to jump off of the Bearcats’ ship. The question is how will Cincinnati respond?
By the Numbers
This will be an interesting game because it will pit one of the best passing attacks in the country against one of the best overall defenses in the country.
For Cincinnati, everything hinges on their ability to pass the football. They ranked 65th in the country running the ball but were #6 in passing offense and had the best overall passing efficiency in the country at 166.19. The worry for the Bearcats isn’t their offense, it’s their defense. In the last four games alone, they’ve allowed 146 points and they haven’t faced any offenses as good as Florida this year.
For Florida, despite having Tim Tebow as their quarterback, this team lives and dies by its defense. This year the Gators defense allowed as many as 20 points just twice and against Mississippi State (who scored 19 points), two Tebow interceptions were returned for touchdowns. They finished 13th against the run, 3rd against the pass, 4th overall, 5th in passing efficiency allowed, and 3rd in points per game allowed. Despite their defensive prowess, you can’t forget that the Gators still were 13th in points scored, 12th in total offense, and 5th in passing efficiency.
Why the Bearcats Will Win
Cincinnati has two quarterbacks that are more than proficient at running this offense. If something happens to starter Tony Pike, “back-up” Zach Collaros had a 195.53 rating and averaged 11.6 yards per attempt. Over 10 or 20 attempts those numbers are good but over 124 attempts, those numbers are bordering on ridiculous. The other part that must be considered is the fact that when you have such a prolific passing attack, you are never truly out of a game. Playing on the road against a top 15 team in Pittsburgh, they were down 31-10 late in the first half. They proceeded to storm all the way back to a 38-38 tie and after Pitt scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:36 remaining in the game, Tony Pike led the Bearcats 61 yards in just over a minute to win the game 45-44. They are a very dangerous team and probably the most potent offense that Florida has faced all year. They scored at least 40 points 6 times and if they can get into a shootout with Florida, that match-up favors the Bearcats.
Why the Gators Will Win
Reason number one is #15. This will be the last game of Tim Tebow’s historic career and he will want to go out on a much better note than that which was heard in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. Tebow finished the season 8th in passing efficiency and despite the loss of Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy to the NFL; he still has plenty of playmakers to light up the scoreboard. Along with the offense, they boast perhaps the best man-for-man defense in the country and a great head coach in Urban Meyer.
The Verdict
If the Alabama Crimson Tide had beaten the Florida Gators in a close game in the SEC title game, I would say that the Gators are a lock to win this game. Considering that Cincinnati played a great 2nd half against Pittsburgh and that Florida was never really in the game against Alabama, it puts this game much more in play. I believe that the Gators will come out flat in the 1st quarter and the question is; can the Bearcats take advantage of that lapse? The answer is yes. The Gators are going to play like they have nothing to play for (which, compared to earlier this month, they don’t) and the Bearcats are going to play like they are lucky to be here (which they are). Tony Pike is going to come out of the gates hot and by the time the Gators catch their breath it will be too late because they lack the big play weapons in the passing game to come back from a deficit.
Cincinnati 30, Florida 24
Sunday, December 13, 2009
BCS Preview: Rose Bowl
The Bowl Championship Series this year starts with the granddaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl. This year’s edition matches the Big Ten Champion, the Ohio State Buckeyes, against the Pac-10 Champion, the Oregon Ducks. This game features two drastically contrasting styles of play and it is in those contrasts that this game may very well be decided.
By the Numbers
Ohio State under Jim Tressel relies on defense and special teams with just enough offense. While they scored 30 or more points 7 times, they broke 40 just once and their average (29.25) ranked 47th in the country. The only two games in which they failed to score 20, they lost. On the flipside of the coin, they allowed more than 20 points just three times and they won two of those games. Behind the strength of their 5th ranked defense, they allowed just 12.2 points per game.
The Ducks, on the other hand, scored 40 or more points 7 times and scored at least 30 in another 3 games. They like to move the ball up and down the field and because of that, they ranked very well in offense (6th in rushing, 25th in total offense), and relatively poorly on the defensive side of the ball. They were 38th against the run, 37th against the pass, and 32nd overall, allowing 23.6 points per game. Four times the Ducks allowed 30 or more points and Heisman Finalist Toby Gerhart and Stanford gashed the Oregon defense for 254 rushing yards (223 by Gerhart), 251 passing yards, and 51 points.
Why the Buckeyes Will Win
Jim Tressel is one of the best coaches in America. Ohio State boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Terrelle Pryor is one of the premier playmakers at the quarterback position, although still an unfinished product as a sophomore. One of their defensive strengths (against the run) matches up against Oregon’s offensive strength (running the ball). Lastly, the Buckeyes were 4th in the country in turnover margin.
Why the Ducks Will Win
It has been quite a while since Ohio State won a big game and even longer since they won a BCS Bowl. On the other side, the last time Oregon played in a BCS game, they beat up Colorado in the 2002 Rose Bowl 38-16. They fashioned themselves as a top-10 team and a national title contender earlier this year before they lost badly to Boise State (19-8) and then later to Stanford (51-42). All of this means they will have a chip on their shoulder and will come out gunning in an attempt to finish the season with some momentum and build towards another title run next year. LaMichael James stepped in for LaGarrette Blount after the Boise State game and rushed for 1,476 yards and 14 touchdowns but the key to this game for Oregon will be Jeremiah Masoli. The junior had a passer rating of 133.7 and did show that he could throw the ball when called upon (334 yards against Stanford) but the key will be his running ability. He rushed for 50 or more yards 7 times and if he is able to take pressure off of LaMichael James, the Ducks could fly to victory.
The Verdict
This game features a very tough match-up for the Buckeyes. They are going against a defense that I would categorize as “above average” to “good”. The Buckeyes need to stay disciplined and within their game plan. There is definitely the potential to look at the Ducks defense and their body of work and say “we can outscore them”. The problem is, the strength of the Ducks is their offense. The more you score, the more you give the ball to that high powered offense. Ohio State cannot get into a shootout or they will find themselves trailing and a ball control offense is not conducive to making comebacks. If they can keep the score in the teens or twenties, the Buckeyes will win. Anything past that and Oregon has a distinct advantage.
Oregon 31, Ohio State 21
By the Numbers
Ohio State under Jim Tressel relies on defense and special teams with just enough offense. While they scored 30 or more points 7 times, they broke 40 just once and their average (29.25) ranked 47th in the country. The only two games in which they failed to score 20, they lost. On the flipside of the coin, they allowed more than 20 points just three times and they won two of those games. Behind the strength of their 5th ranked defense, they allowed just 12.2 points per game.
The Ducks, on the other hand, scored 40 or more points 7 times and scored at least 30 in another 3 games. They like to move the ball up and down the field and because of that, they ranked very well in offense (6th in rushing, 25th in total offense), and relatively poorly on the defensive side of the ball. They were 38th against the run, 37th against the pass, and 32nd overall, allowing 23.6 points per game. Four times the Ducks allowed 30 or more points and Heisman Finalist Toby Gerhart and Stanford gashed the Oregon defense for 254 rushing yards (223 by Gerhart), 251 passing yards, and 51 points.
Why the Buckeyes Will Win
Jim Tressel is one of the best coaches in America. Ohio State boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Terrelle Pryor is one of the premier playmakers at the quarterback position, although still an unfinished product as a sophomore. One of their defensive strengths (against the run) matches up against Oregon’s offensive strength (running the ball). Lastly, the Buckeyes were 4th in the country in turnover margin.
Why the Ducks Will Win
It has been quite a while since Ohio State won a big game and even longer since they won a BCS Bowl. On the other side, the last time Oregon played in a BCS game, they beat up Colorado in the 2002 Rose Bowl 38-16. They fashioned themselves as a top-10 team and a national title contender earlier this year before they lost badly to Boise State (19-8) and then later to Stanford (51-42). All of this means they will have a chip on their shoulder and will come out gunning in an attempt to finish the season with some momentum and build towards another title run next year. LaMichael James stepped in for LaGarrette Blount after the Boise State game and rushed for 1,476 yards and 14 touchdowns but the key to this game for Oregon will be Jeremiah Masoli. The junior had a passer rating of 133.7 and did show that he could throw the ball when called upon (334 yards against Stanford) but the key will be his running ability. He rushed for 50 or more yards 7 times and if he is able to take pressure off of LaMichael James, the Ducks could fly to victory.
The Verdict
This game features a very tough match-up for the Buckeyes. They are going against a defense that I would categorize as “above average” to “good”. The Buckeyes need to stay disciplined and within their game plan. There is definitely the potential to look at the Ducks defense and their body of work and say “we can outscore them”. The problem is, the strength of the Ducks is their offense. The more you score, the more you give the ball to that high powered offense. Ohio State cannot get into a shootout or they will find themselves trailing and a ball control offense is not conducive to making comebacks. If they can keep the score in the teens or twenties, the Buckeyes will win. Anything past that and Oregon has a distinct advantage.
Oregon 31, Ohio State 21
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Winners and Losers of BCS '10
The BCS field is set and the countdown has begun until January 7th, when Alabama and Texas will meet to decide the champion for the 2009 season. With the regular season over and the bowl season to come, it is time to look back and determine the winners and the losers from the season.
First, the winners.
WINNERS
Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences
The first “winners” are the little guys. For the first time in the 12 year history of the BCS, two teams from outside the AQ (automatic qualifying) conferences will play in a BCS bowl and bring a $12-15 million paycheck back to their conferences. Both Boise State and TCU benefited from the fact that perennial powers Oklahoma and USC both had down years at the same time. Had either of those schools performed to their 2008 level, one of the two, in all likelihood Boise State, would have been left out of the BCS party.
The SEC
For the second consecutive year, the SEC Championship Game was essentially a national semifinal game with the winner heading to the BCS National Championship Game. Last year it was #3 Florida beating #1 Alabama 31-20 and then winning the national title and this year, #2 Alabama manhandles #1 Florida 32-13 and will be playing for the national title. There is still the perception that while the rest of the SEC may be down and not playing its best football of the past decade, the conference is still loaded at the top. On top of that, when you take into account the incredible depth of young talent that Alabama has, the country may have traded one SEC juggernaut (Florida) for another.
The Fiesta Bowl
For the first time in the BCS era, two undefeated teams will square off in a game that will not determine the national champion. The Fiesta Bowl will feature #4 TCU (12-0) against #6 Boise State (13-0). We can only hope that the game lives up to their bowl meeting last year, one in which TCU pulled out a 17-16 victory.
Now, the flip side of the coin…
LOSERS
The Big XII
Coming into this year the storylines surrounding the Big XII were even better than those in the SEC. Two Heisman Trophy finalists (and one winner), the infamous tie-breaker situation last year, and two teams loaded and ready to compete for the division, the conference, and the crystal football. All of those expectations came crashing back down to earth in the first game of Oklahoma’s season, when they not only lost to BYU, but also lost Heisman winning quarterback Sam Bradford to a shoulder injury. He attempted to come back later in the season but played little before re-aggravating the injury and then being lost for the season, not to return to Norman, Oklahoma.
It’s hard to call a conference a loser when one of its teams is playing for the national title but compared to 2008, this season has been a disappointing one outside of Austin, Texas. After Oklahoma’s loss to BYU, it’s been a longshot for the Big XII to get two BCS berths. Towards the end of the season, it looked decent for Oklahoma State, but losing to the Sooners 27-0 in the regular season finale ended any of those thoughts. Last year, all people could talk about was which conference was better between the Big XII and the SEC and for most people, it came down to where you were from. This year it hasn’t been close and with the departure of Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, the Big XII will need to reload to be relevant in that conversation again.
The Pac-10
The SEC may have been the best conference at the top but there is no question in my mind which conference was the best from top to bottom. Only one team lost fewer than 4 games (conference champion Oregon, at 10-2) but consider this. The lowest ranked strength of schedule in the Pac-10 was Arizona State, whose schedule was ranked 24th by Jeff Sagarin. Conference champion Oregon’s schedule was rated as the 4th toughest in the nation, easily the most difficult of the 10 BCS Bowl participants. This is mainly due to two things; tough out-of-conference scheduling and a tough conference. Put another way, below are the 8 conferences that will be participating in BCS bowls and their three toughest schedules this year according to Jeff Sagarin with their national ranks.
ACC – Florida State (3), Virginia (6), Virginia Tech (11)
Big East – West Virginia (33), Connecticut (36), Syracuse (39)
Big Ten – Minnesota (30), Illinois (38), Purdue (46)
Big XII – Oklahoma (31), Colorado (32), Baylor 34)
Mountain West – New Mexico (55), Wyoming (57), Colorado State (64)
Pac-10 – Washington State (1), Washington (2), Oregon (4)
SEC – Georgia (5), South Carolina (7), Mississippi State (8)
WAC – San Jose State (54), Utah State (65), Louisiana Tech (72)
How does this make the Pac-10 losers? Top heavy conferences produce undefeated records and send teams to the BCS bowls and maybe even the national title game. While a Rose Bowl bid goes to a very deserving Oregon team, there has never been any discussion of a second Pac-10 team in the BCS because they beat each other up in conference play. Only one team had fewer than 3 conference losses this year in the Pac-10. Last year, there were three Big XII teams with one loss and both last year and this year, two SEC teams finished their regular seasons undefeated. This helps because the Ducks will be favored in the Rose Bowl. This hurts because they’re the only ones playing the BCS.
Lastly, there in one winner and one loser that are so closely linked that they have to be separate from the rest of this discussion.
Automatic Qualifying Conferences (winner) and Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences (loser)
Now, those of you who have been paying attention should have noticed that I’m sitting here saying that the Non-AQ conferences were both winners and losers. No, that’s not a typo, they were. Yes, they got two teams in. Yes, they had two teams beat up on inferior opponents; finish undefeated, and nearly put one in the National Championship Game. How can they also be losers? The Fiesta Bowl took them both. The Non-AQ conferences are on a very long quest for respect right now and they have not yet achieved their end goal. They took a big step forward last year when Utah raced out to a 21-0 lead and coasted to a 31-17 win over an Alabama team that was in the top 5 for most of the year and was considered a leading contender for the national title. This year, TCU and Boise State have both lost the opportunity Utah had last year because they play each other.
What the Non-AQ conferences needed was a pair of match-ups like Utah had last year. A perfect scenario would have been TCU vs. Texas (if they had lost the Big XII title game) and Boise State against Florida. If this scenario had played out and both had won, the case of the AQ conferences to keep the format the way it is would have been seriously weakened. As it is, no matter who wins, they can claim a share of the national title all they want and nobody will listen. TCU played the 84th hardest schedule and Boise State played the 98th toughest schedule. Any team worth its salt should go undefeated given those schedules. Even with a big win in the Fiesta Bowl, their resume won’t even compare with Cincinnati’s (assuming a Bearcats win) given their conference and their strength of schedule.
Both Boise State and TCU needed a signature victory upon which to build next year. If either of these teams had beaten #5 Florida in, say, the Sugar Bowl, I have little doubt they would have been ranked in the top ten preseason in 2010, poised for a run towards a national championship. The Fiesta Bowl prevented any of that from coming to pass.
The BCS bowls this year should be good, specifically the Fiesta Bowl and the National Championship game. There are many winners and losers but in my opinion, the positive aspects of this year’s BCS selections far outweigh the negatives.
Let the countdown begin!
Only 26 days left…
First, the winners.
WINNERS
Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences
The first “winners” are the little guys. For the first time in the 12 year history of the BCS, two teams from outside the AQ (automatic qualifying) conferences will play in a BCS bowl and bring a $12-15 million paycheck back to their conferences. Both Boise State and TCU benefited from the fact that perennial powers Oklahoma and USC both had down years at the same time. Had either of those schools performed to their 2008 level, one of the two, in all likelihood Boise State, would have been left out of the BCS party.
The SEC
For the second consecutive year, the SEC Championship Game was essentially a national semifinal game with the winner heading to the BCS National Championship Game. Last year it was #3 Florida beating #1 Alabama 31-20 and then winning the national title and this year, #2 Alabama manhandles #1 Florida 32-13 and will be playing for the national title. There is still the perception that while the rest of the SEC may be down and not playing its best football of the past decade, the conference is still loaded at the top. On top of that, when you take into account the incredible depth of young talent that Alabama has, the country may have traded one SEC juggernaut (Florida) for another.
The Fiesta Bowl
For the first time in the BCS era, two undefeated teams will square off in a game that will not determine the national champion. The Fiesta Bowl will feature #4 TCU (12-0) against #6 Boise State (13-0). We can only hope that the game lives up to their bowl meeting last year, one in which TCU pulled out a 17-16 victory.
Now, the flip side of the coin…
LOSERS
The Big XII
Coming into this year the storylines surrounding the Big XII were even better than those in the SEC. Two Heisman Trophy finalists (and one winner), the infamous tie-breaker situation last year, and two teams loaded and ready to compete for the division, the conference, and the crystal football. All of those expectations came crashing back down to earth in the first game of Oklahoma’s season, when they not only lost to BYU, but also lost Heisman winning quarterback Sam Bradford to a shoulder injury. He attempted to come back later in the season but played little before re-aggravating the injury and then being lost for the season, not to return to Norman, Oklahoma.
It’s hard to call a conference a loser when one of its teams is playing for the national title but compared to 2008, this season has been a disappointing one outside of Austin, Texas. After Oklahoma’s loss to BYU, it’s been a longshot for the Big XII to get two BCS berths. Towards the end of the season, it looked decent for Oklahoma State, but losing to the Sooners 27-0 in the regular season finale ended any of those thoughts. Last year, all people could talk about was which conference was better between the Big XII and the SEC and for most people, it came down to where you were from. This year it hasn’t been close and with the departure of Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, the Big XII will need to reload to be relevant in that conversation again.
The Pac-10
The SEC may have been the best conference at the top but there is no question in my mind which conference was the best from top to bottom. Only one team lost fewer than 4 games (conference champion Oregon, at 10-2) but consider this. The lowest ranked strength of schedule in the Pac-10 was Arizona State, whose schedule was ranked 24th by Jeff Sagarin. Conference champion Oregon’s schedule was rated as the 4th toughest in the nation, easily the most difficult of the 10 BCS Bowl participants. This is mainly due to two things; tough out-of-conference scheduling and a tough conference. Put another way, below are the 8 conferences that will be participating in BCS bowls and their three toughest schedules this year according to Jeff Sagarin with their national ranks.
ACC – Florida State (3), Virginia (6), Virginia Tech (11)
Big East – West Virginia (33), Connecticut (36), Syracuse (39)
Big Ten – Minnesota (30), Illinois (38), Purdue (46)
Big XII – Oklahoma (31), Colorado (32), Baylor 34)
Mountain West – New Mexico (55), Wyoming (57), Colorado State (64)
Pac-10 – Washington State (1), Washington (2), Oregon (4)
SEC – Georgia (5), South Carolina (7), Mississippi State (8)
WAC – San Jose State (54), Utah State (65), Louisiana Tech (72)
How does this make the Pac-10 losers? Top heavy conferences produce undefeated records and send teams to the BCS bowls and maybe even the national title game. While a Rose Bowl bid goes to a very deserving Oregon team, there has never been any discussion of a second Pac-10 team in the BCS because they beat each other up in conference play. Only one team had fewer than 3 conference losses this year in the Pac-10. Last year, there were three Big XII teams with one loss and both last year and this year, two SEC teams finished their regular seasons undefeated. This helps because the Ducks will be favored in the Rose Bowl. This hurts because they’re the only ones playing the BCS.
Lastly, there in one winner and one loser that are so closely linked that they have to be separate from the rest of this discussion.
Automatic Qualifying Conferences (winner) and Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences (loser)
Now, those of you who have been paying attention should have noticed that I’m sitting here saying that the Non-AQ conferences were both winners and losers. No, that’s not a typo, they were. Yes, they got two teams in. Yes, they had two teams beat up on inferior opponents; finish undefeated, and nearly put one in the National Championship Game. How can they also be losers? The Fiesta Bowl took them both. The Non-AQ conferences are on a very long quest for respect right now and they have not yet achieved their end goal. They took a big step forward last year when Utah raced out to a 21-0 lead and coasted to a 31-17 win over an Alabama team that was in the top 5 for most of the year and was considered a leading contender for the national title. This year, TCU and Boise State have both lost the opportunity Utah had last year because they play each other.
What the Non-AQ conferences needed was a pair of match-ups like Utah had last year. A perfect scenario would have been TCU vs. Texas (if they had lost the Big XII title game) and Boise State against Florida. If this scenario had played out and both had won, the case of the AQ conferences to keep the format the way it is would have been seriously weakened. As it is, no matter who wins, they can claim a share of the national title all they want and nobody will listen. TCU played the 84th hardest schedule and Boise State played the 98th toughest schedule. Any team worth its salt should go undefeated given those schedules. Even with a big win in the Fiesta Bowl, their resume won’t even compare with Cincinnati’s (assuming a Bearcats win) given their conference and their strength of schedule.
Both Boise State and TCU needed a signature victory upon which to build next year. If either of these teams had beaten #5 Florida in, say, the Sugar Bowl, I have little doubt they would have been ranked in the top ten preseason in 2010, poised for a run towards a national championship. The Fiesta Bowl prevented any of that from coming to pass.
The BCS bowls this year should be good, specifically the Fiesta Bowl and the National Championship game. There are many winners and losers but in my opinion, the positive aspects of this year’s BCS selections far outweigh the negatives.
Let the countdown begin!
Only 26 days left…
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