The debates have already started all across America and in fact, they happened from the moment Iowa State finished off their improbable comeback against undefeated and highly ranked Oklahoma State to win 37-31 in double overtime. Up until that point, it appeared that Oklahoma State and LSU would meet in the BCS National Championship game and if you had to put money on which might have a loss in that game, the smart money would have been on LSU.
However, LSU negotiated their ridiculously brutal schedule without a hiccup and has put themselves in a position to add their name to the list of best college football teams ever. They have defeated 8 ranked teams this year, 3 of which were ranked either #2 (Alabama) or #3 (Oregon and Arkansas) at the time.
There is no question that LSU is the best team in the country is and they will be favored in the national championship game next month no matter what. The only question on the mind of pretty much everyone is who deserves the chance to knock the Tigers off of their pedestal.
Oklahoma State has a more impressive body of work. They beat five teams that are currently in the BCS top 25; Alabama has only defeated two. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, there’s really only one other thing that they have going for them; they haven’t played LSU yet.
Alabama ranks 16th in scoring offense (behind Oklahoma State’s 2nd ranked juggernaut) but they lead the nation in scoring defense at just 8.8 points per game (while the Cowboys are 61st allowing 25.8 points per game). Alabama’s sole loss was at home… to the team mentioned above that is thrusting itself into the conversation for best team ever… by 3… in overtime. Oklahoma State’s only loss was on the road to an unranked team that barely made it to bowl eligibility… and they were 27 point favorites. Alabama’s best win was a 38-14 demolition of Arkansas who was ranked 6th in the final BCS standings and has been shut out of a BCS bowl. Oklahoma State’s best win was their 44-10 destruction of then #10 Oklahoma who dropped to 14th in the final edition of the BCS.
Despite the fact that Alabama has already played LSU, they are widely considered the second best team in the country and there is no logical reason that, if they are the second best team in the nation, they should not play LSU again for the national championship.
THE SEC
Many people around the country are getting tired of hearing about the dominance of the SEC and for much of last year, I was among those people. Now, however, I am changing my tune. Yes, the SEC is dominant and yes, I was born and raised in Pac-10 country (way back when it was the Pac-10). Yes, I miss the glory days of USC’s incredible run through all comers (before we found out that none of that counts anymore).
The fact of the matter is this is a historic run that the SEC is on and if you can’t appreciate that, you can’t appreciate college football through the blinders of your home colors. When USC was dominant in that several year stretch, nobody else in the Pac-10 was making much noise. Cal had a good year and that was more or less it. Starting with 2003 and running through 2008, the Trojans won all 6 Pac-10 championships and no other Pac-10 team made it to a BCS bowl. What is truly remarkable is in the last five years, four different teams have won the national title from the SEC.
For a conference to produce one program that is that dominant is very unusual but not half as unusual as producing five national champions that hail from four different campuses in consecutive years. It is a feat that might never be duplicated. All of this has led to an aura about any team that comes from the SEC. If you finished 7-5, 5-3 in the SEC, there are ego building whispers that you would have finished 12-0 in the Big East and maybe 11-1 in the ACC. If you finish 12-0 in the SEC you’ll be playing for the national title and if you finish 11-1, you’re better by default than any champion from outside the BCS conferences and it’s a toss-up between your team and an undefeated team from the Big East or the ACC.
The major question that needs to be asked is whether or not that is the way it should be and the logical answer is that you shouldn’t make assumptions like that when you are trying to figure out who the best team in the country is. The problem is that, as far as the BCS bowls have been concerned, those assumptions have been put to the test and have been shown to have some validity to them.
In both 2006 and 2007 there was a consensus number one team in the country, the Buckeyes of Ohio State. I watched several games from that team and followed the rest of the country and I was in agreement; they were the best team on paper and they passed the “eye” test. Both times they went to the BCS National Championship Game and both times they were blown out by SEC teams. Florida beat them 41-14 and then LSU beat them the next year 38-24 in a game that wasn’t nearly that close. Clearly the Big Ten was overrated and Ohio State wasn’t as good as their record indicated.
What about the Big XII? In 2008 Oklahoma was the number one team in the final BCS standings (wiith ridiculous amounts of controversy because when people start clamoring that Texas beat them head-to-head, they always seem to forget that Texas was beaten by Texas Tech and they finished 7th in the BCS). The Sooners had an offense for the ages with the future number one overall pick at quarterback in Sam Bradford. Everyone knew that you could put that offense up against any defense and they would just pick it apart. So what happened? A team that scored 702 points (54.0 per game) and had scored 35 points in their only loss was held to 14.
The next year they had another shot with Texas trying to dethrone Alabama. The Longhorns actually had a good defense that year, allowing just 15.2 points per game while they scored 40.7 per game. Just as before, an SEC team held them to far fewer points and scored far more than the Longhorns had averaged in the regular season; Alabama 37, Texas 21.
In 2010, the Pac-10 had its first crack at the SEC in the title game with the blur offense of Oregon. I will never really understand why the Ducks abandoned (largely) their frenetically paced offense. While watching their first few drives in the first half, there was a definite methodical nature to their offensive cadence. When I watched them get behind big to Stanford and then blow the doors off of the stadium, they were at their breakneck pace for the entire game when they had the ball, not just one or two plays per drive. Anyways, I digress. The result was again the same when an SEC defense held a very powerful offense (49.3 points per game) to a fraction of their previous potency in a 22-19 win.
For those of you who hate the SEC so much, the past five SEC champions have taken on teams from the Big Ten (Ohio State twice), the Big XII (Oklahoma and Texas) and the Pac-10 (Oregon) who had a combined 60-2 record and were averaging 42.6 points per game and allowing 16.0 points per game and have defeated them all by an average score of 32.4-18.4.
Give me one good reason why the SEC is NOT the best conference and they shouldn’t have two teams in the title game this year and I might listen. The fact of the matter is, there isn’t one.
WHAT’S IN A CHAMPIONSHIP?
What is a champion? Is it a team that has had the best season or the best postseason?
For the rest of you clamoring about the injustice that the teams ranked numbers 6, 7, 8, and 9 are not going to be playing in a BCS bowl we must remember that the BCS has just two purposes and the first and more important one is to rake in a boatload of money. The second is to provide a match-up between the teams most widely regarded as the #1 and #2 teams in the nation.
The job of the BCS is not to ensure that the Fiesta Bowl has a good match-up; that’s the job of the Fiesta Bowl. If the Sugar Bowl thinks that Virginia Tech and Michigan will sell more tickets and entice more advertising dollars than Boise State and Kansas State, that is their prerogative and it is not at all the fault of the BCS. All the BCS does for the other bowls is they determine the schools that are eligible. After that, the bowls themselves pick the match-ups. It should also be noted that two of the four teams mentioned that are in the top ten but didn’t make it to a BCS bowl were also from the SEC (#6 Arkansas and #9 South Carolina) so consider that before you say the BCS was overrated.
Let’s get back to the question posed at the beginning of this section; what is a champion? Ideally, it is a team that satisfies both of the requirements I set forth; they were the best team in the regular season and they were the best team in the postseason. The problem is that very few teams have ever satisfied both of those requirements.
The 1998 Yankees went 114-48 and then ripped through the postseason to win the World Series easily.
The 1985 Bears were 15-1 before destroying their three playoff opponents to win the Super Bowl.
The 1996-97 Bulls were 72-10 and easily won the NBA title that year.
Those are off the top of my head and with time, I could come up with several more examples but I can think of several that don’t fit that mold and are in fact the opposite.
The 2006 St Louis Cardinals were 83-78 before they won the World Series.
The 2009 Arizona Cardinals were 9-7 before they very nearly won the Super Bowl.
In the last four years, two teams have won the Super Bowl from the #5 seed (2007 New York Giants) and the #6 seed (2010 Green Bay Packers).
Last year, Connecticut’s Men’s Basketball team was 21-9 and ranked 21st in the country. They then won 11 games in a row to claim the national championship.
What do all eight of the previous examples have in common? They were all very exciting and they were all crowned champions by a playoff. We can very easily see (and possibly remember) that the 96-97 Bulls, the 85 Bears, and the 98 Yankees were the best teams in their respective sports that year but what about the other five I mentioned? They were far from the best teams that year and were some of the worst teams ever to compete for a championship (in the case of the Arizona Cardinals) or win one.
This is something that never happens in the BCS and we have to give them credit for that. This year, you don’t have to worry about #21 Southern Miss getting hot and knocking off #1 LSU. The regular season matters and if you don’t take care of business (like against a 27 point underdog who finished 6-6) you don’t play for the national title.
The top two teams rarely play in the Super Bowl or in the World Series or the NBA Finals or the Final Four but for each and every one of the last thirteen years, the top two teams in the country (by at least one definition) have met on the field to determine the national champion. If you can’t at very least stipulate that then you have an illogical dislike (or hatred) of the BCS.
NATURE OF THE BEAST
What is the best way to determine a champion? A playoff or a ratings system that boils down every play to a series of 1’s and 0’s and spits out two team names? This is where I have to take myself out of the dream world and come back to reality. The best way to determine a champion is through a playoff bracket but not with individual winner-take-all games but with series.
In February of 2008, the New York Giants entered the Super Bowl with a record of 13-6 while the New England Patriots entered the contest with a record of 18-0. They had played just a few weeks before with the Patriots winning 38-35 to finish off their 16-0 regular season. If they had played 100 times, who would have won more? In my opinion, the answer is the Patriots because they were the better team. On that Sunday evening in February, the Giants were better but overall they were the inferior team.
This is the beauty of series in playoff brackets. Any team in any league can beat any other team. Under normal circumstances, the 0-13 Colts could potentially beat the 13-0 Packers (although this might be the exception to the rule) but could they do it more than once when they had to? Could they win 2 of 3, 3 of 5, or 4 of 7? The answer for the most part is no. When two teams line up against each other 7 times, it is rare that the truly inferior team wins. If the teams are evenly matched, of course, all bets are off but the cases are rare where there has been a disparity of talent and performance and the lesser team wins.
That is a fair way to determine a champion. You have to achieve success and then maintain it and that idea works for basketball (at least on the professional side), baseball, and hockey. It does not work for football.
Football cannot be played in series unless you want one season to take three years. It is, as the heading suggests, the nature of the beast that is football.
IS IT TIME FOR A PLAYOFF?
What is the answer when it comes to college football? Personally, I like the bowl system (even though it is becoming a reward for mediocrity) and I like the BCS. It needs to be tweaked and it needs to be revamped but its essence is still pure. Every week matters and if you lose, you have to hope that everyone else does as well. Alabama is not getting a mulligan this year; they negotiated a difficult schedule with one small blemish against one of the best teams of the BCS era. They were better than every other team with one loss according to the combination of computer and human polls.
The formula for playing for a national title has always been simple; win. In the fourteen years of the BCS system, 30 teams have gone undefeated prior to the bowls and more than half (17) have played in the national championship game. While many people would say that it’s unfair that thirteen teams went undefeated and didn’t play for the national title, I disagree. I believe that the number of undefeated teams that had a legitimate claim to the national title are very few (Auburn in 2004 and then Cincinnati and TCU in 2009 and TCU in 2010).
The truth of the matter is that there will always be controversy until the NCAA does away with half of the regular season games and institutes a 128 team playoff bracket. I know that it sounds ridiculous but how else can you appease all of the people complaining about how unfair the BCS is? That way, every team has a chance to win it all. While we’re at it, maybe March Madness should expand to include all 300 Division 1 teams.
If you want to do away with the Coach’s Poll, fine. If you want to revamp the computer formulae to include every possible statistic and measure of a football team, fine. If you want to eliminate the automatic qualifying spots for conference champions, fine. However, the essence of the BCS is pure:
#1 vs. #2… just the way it should be.
Showing posts with label BCS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BCS. Show all posts
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Football 2011
Before I delve into the bulk of this post, which will be about the NFL, I feel compelled to say a few words about the now annual chaos that is the BCS. From a fan’s perspective, I love the chaos. #2 Oklahoma State, #4 Oregon, and #5 Oklahoma all lost this weekend with only one of them (OSU) losing to a ranked team. Now, it very much looks like when everyone wakes up Monday morning, SEC teams will be ranked #1 (LSU), #2 (Alabama), and #3 (Arkansas). Still on the far outside looking in is undefeated Houston, now 11-0 and ranked #11 before this weekend’s action. Note to Cougars fans – you cannot play for the BCS championship when your signature win is over UCLA.
Chaos is good and bad for the BCS. It makes it far more difficult to determine who the two best teams in the country are. However, when it comes to the actual BCS bowl games, you have far more quality teams and therefore the potential for better match-ups and more viewership. The nightmare scenario right now for the BCS would be if Arkansas can beat LSU next weekend. Then the only undefeated team would be one that hasn’t played anyone significant and while it might be easy to eliminate them from the national title conversation, how do you eliminate… umm, anyone else?
The BCS is overdue for a restructuring and the rumor is that it’s coming in the next couple of years. The most interesting scenario which I’d personally love to see is the BCS would be responsible for the national championship game only. Their formula would determine the top two teams in the country and they could then receive bids for stadiums to host that game (Jerry Jones and a (almost) record BCS crowd at Cowboys Stadium anyone?). The advantage to this idea is that gone would be some of the most unpopular aspects of the BCS. There would be no automatic qualifying conferences so Connecticut would not be forced to get hammered by a top ten Oklahoma team. There would no longer be a two team limit, which is going to completely screw the SEC this year (under current rules, if Georgia were to beat LSU in the SEC Championship Game, the SEC would potentially have teams at 12-1, 11-1, 11-2, and 10-2 and they could all be ranked in the top ten and deserving of a trip to a BCS bowl… and only two of them can go.
Lastly (for the NCAA section), do I think there will be a playoff someday in big-time college football? Absolutely not. Do I think there should be one? No, I don’t and the reason is simple. Under the current format, you have to play perfectly to make it to the title game and win it all. Last March was one of the more exciting NCAA Men’s Basketball Championships that I’ve ever seen but does anyone out there (outside of Indianapolis and Storrs, Connecticut) think that Butler and Connecticut were the two best basketball teams in the country? Of course they weren’t. They played the best over that month-long tournament; they got to the final not because they were the best team but because they were the hottest team. If you change the FBS system to a playoff, the same thing will start to happen. When I look at the list of NCAA Division-I FBS champions, I know that they were one of the best teams in the country. You can rarely say that anymore with March Madness.
NFL
The seasons is just past the halfway mark and while some playoff races have shaped up and are all but determined (I’m talking to you Seahawks, Cardinals, and Rams) others remain intriguing and most likely will until Week 17. This season has had it all but as far as this blogger is concerned, some stories stood out amongst the rest.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Today, the one who dubbed the Eagles the “Dream Team” will actually get to start for the first time. Due to Michael Vick’s broken ribs, Vince Young will get the start today for an Eagles team that is all but out at 3-6.
What went wrong? So many people thought they were going to win the NFC if not the Super Bowl. How did things go off the rails so quickly? Well, as is usually the case with teams not living up to expectations, it has been a combination of things but to me, one stands out above the rest; quarterback play.
Last year, everyone thought Vick had turned the corner and had finally learned how to be a pocket quarterback in the NFL. If he did, he somehow forgot nearly everything he learned. This year he is the quarterback that he was in Atlanta. He is still a supreme physical talent and a dynamic playmaker but anymore, that is not the most important part of being an NFL quarterback. If you look at four of the best quarterbacks in the NFL (in no particular order; Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers) they are at their best when they are surrounded by the playmakers. Their job is more one of distribution and leadership than leading by example. Michael Vick was very good in Atlanta when they had a great running attack and they just needed him to make a couple big plays every game. In Philadelphia, they need him to make numerous big plays every week and he isn’t the type of player who can do that consistently.
Other than that, your guess is as good as mine. The defense has needed some time to gel and not having a training camp hurt them greatly but their offense is a far greater concern. DeSean Jackson’s antics have been a distraction and he might not be back next season and this strikes a deeper chord than Vick’s passing. On a different team, Jackson would be kept in line by his fellow players. The teams I can think of off the top of my head are the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Baltimore Ravens, and the New England Patriots. In those places, veterans who have dominant personalities control those locker rooms and nothing goes on without them allowing it to happen. Where is that type of presence in Philadelphia? The short answer is that is doesn’t exist.
PLEASANT SURPRISES (LIONS AND 49ER’S)
One year ago, the Lions and 49ers were 6-10. The main difference is that there was no expectation for the Lions to compete with the likes of the Bears (11-5) or the Packers (10-6). The 49ers were picked to win the NFC West and nearly did, finishing just a game behind the Rams and Seahawks (7-9). The Lions were on the upswing at the end of the year, winning their last four games while the 49ers were just bad with a rookie holdout and then a head coach getting fired.
This year, they are both in line to make the playoffs. The Lions are 6-3 and while they have taken a couple of rough beatings in the last few weeks, they still control their own playoff fate and should make it to the playoffs. They are a case of having numerous high draft picks and actually getting a couple of them right. Matthew Stafford, Ndomukong Suh, and Calvin Johnson have all been playing at a very high level this year. However, I think one of their more important players has been Jahvid Best, the diminutive running back that has been out with an injury since their first loss to San Francisco. They started 5-1 with him and have lost two out of three since he went out. His home run ability out of the backfield as either a runner or a receiver has been sorely missed.
There has been a lot of talk lately about the Lions being a dirty team and I wanted to address that briefly. First of all, I have no problem with guys playing hard and playing rough. Of everything I saw (which I’ll freely admit is far from everything) in the first several weeks of the season, I didn’t see anything outside of the unwritten code of conduct on a football field. I saw a bunch of guys with a hard edge looking to make their opponents pay – that’s not dirty, that’s football. Despite the lack of visual evidence, the rumors persist. Last Sunday against the Bears, it was out in the open for everyone to see. Suh ripping the helmet off of Jay Cutler should have gotten him thrown out of the game. If you aren’t allowed to grab a guy’s facemask and you’re not allowed to grab his back collar and pull him backwards, why are you allowed to tackle a guy BY THE HELMET?
Unfortunately, this wasn’t even the worst transgression of the evening for the Bears – that dishonor belongs to Matthew Stafford. I understand that throwing interceptions is frustrating but nothing, I repeat nothing, gives Stafford the right to drag down a defensive player by the head, similar to what Suh did to Cutler. If it had been the ball carrier, I might have been able to give him a pass but it wasn’t, it was a blocker. Every quarterback should know that if you throw an interception and become a defensive player, you are not protected in any special way; if you go for the ball carrier, you are fair game to be blocked. What makes it even worse is the ball carrier had just passed Stafford and he still threw DJ Moore to the ground.
DJ Moore should have been ejected for his reaction; Stafford should have been ejected for starting the whole thing.
NOW THE 49ERS…
The 49ers, so bad a year ago (far worse than their 6-10 record) are now 8-1 and are sitting atop the league’s worst division (hotly contested by the AFC West). If they win today and the Seahawks also lose, they will clinch at worst a tie for the NFC West’s best record… with almost 40% of the season to go. This would be akin to a baseball team clinching their division in early August – it just doesn’t happen. So how has this turnaround happened?
A lot of people point to the influence that Jim Harbaugh has had on that team and it certainly can’t be overlooked. He has brought an edge to that team that it was missing and I think he will have success in the NFL. I think the most important thing he’s done this year is express his confidence in Alex Smith. The oft-maligned seventh year pro from Utah has never had a completion percentage better than 60.5% or a passer rating higher than 82.1 until this year. Right now those two marks stand at 64.0% and 95.8, respectively. Just to prove that he isn’t the game manager that everyone says he is, last week against the 6-2 Giants with Frank Gore proving less than effective, Smith threw the ball 30 times for 242 yards and led the 49ers to victory.
It’s beginning to show now that perhaps all he really needed was someone to believe in him. Now it looks like he’ll be quarterbacking either the #1 or the #2 seed in the NFC and with Frank Gore behind him, it’ll be very hard to bet against them come January.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Everyone knew that this team was in decline. Last year they started 6-6 and had to win their last four just to win the AFC Colts division and Peyton Manning posted his lowest passer rating since 2002 (91.9 – which still ranked 10th in the league). Then the lockout happened and Manning couldn’t consult with one of the therapists he trusts the most who happened to be on the Colts’ training staff.
Then he missed the first game of the season and once his consecutive games streak was over, the team and Manning decided that he shouldn’t rush back and should come back when he is 100%. Without Manning, everyone knew this team would miss the playoffs and would struggle to finish 8-8.
With 6 games remaining, the Colts have a solid grip on the #1 overall pick in next year’s draft and have a decent chance to become the third team ever to not win a game in a season and the second to go 0-16. This is yet another illustration of just how much Manning means to the Colts. Not only is he the offensive coordinator in everything but name, the entire roster is built around him, even on the defensive side. One of the reasons they have been so bad against the run the past several years (including during their Super Bowl run) is if you have a big lead, the other team can’t afford to run as much. Those were the types of leads that Manning would give them and virtually no other quarterback in the league could. This team is a house of cards and Manning is the glue that holds them solidly together; without him, they couldn’t win the Big Ten and would struggle to win the Big East.
I don’t believe in conspiracy theories with regards to the NFL draft. I don’t believe that it’s more than coincidence that Manning misses most of the season when there is a guy in the draft pool (potentially) who might be able to replace him. This team was built around #18 and without him, they are just downright terrible.
GREEN BAY PACKERS – AARON RODGERS
On the other end of the winning spectrum are the Packers, who enter today’s game with the Buccaneers 9-0 and playing some of the best offensive football that has ever been played and so far their success starts with Aaron Rodgers. His worst game of the season (by passer rating) was in their 27-17 win over the Bears when Rodgers was 28-38 for 297 yards with 3 touchdowns and one of his three interceptions for a rating of 111.4. Just four times this year has Rodgers rating been under 120 while the last three weeks, he’s posted a rating over 140 each time.
Since 1970, there have been 1,252 instances of a quarterback throwing at least 196 passes (to qualify for the rate statistics, you have to average at least 14 pass attempts per team game and the season used to be 14 games long so 14 x 14 = 196). Amongst those, in the four main components that form the NFL’s passer rating formula, Aaron Rodgers ranks:
1st in completion percentage
2nd in touchdown percentage
6th in interception percentage
2nd in yards per attempt
This is where things get a little skewed in my opinion. Coming into this year, the greatest single season performance by a quarterback did not come from Dan Marino or John Elway or Roger Staubach or Drew Brees or Tom Brady. It came from Peyton Manning.
People remember the high flying Patriots offense led by Brady’s 50 touchdown, 8 interception season but many forget that just three years before that, Peyton Manning had an even better season. The difference? Manning’s Colts never went 16-0.
Yes, Tom Brady threw one more touchdown pass and threw for 249 more yards than Manning. Brady also had 81 more attempts than Manning. This is the best way to normalize things; this is what the seasons for Manning and Brady would look like if each threw the ball 500 times.
Name – Completions-Attempts-Yards-TD-INT
Manning – 338-500-4,585-49-10
Brady – 344-500-4,157-43-7
Manning’s season was better as evidenced by the fact that his passer rating was better. Aaron Rodger’s isn’t trying to best Brady’s 2007 but Manning’s 2004. So what would Rodgers numbers look like if normalized to 500 pass attempts? In a word, ridiculous.
Rodgers – 364-500-4,863-47-5
IT’S A BIRD! IT’S A PLANE! NO, IT’S…
(Paraphrasing Kung Fu Panda)
LEGEND TELLS OF A LEGENDARY QUARTERBACK, WHOSE QUARTERBACKING SKILLS WERE THE STUFF OF LEGEND!
The most polarizing player in the league right now and perhaps ever is Tim Tebow. His delivery is slow, his reads are slower, but he has boatloads of “intangibles”. Currently, the Broncos are 5-5, just a half game behind the Raiders in the AFC West, a division which could have four 5-5 teams at the end of play today. When Tebow took over as the starting quarterback, the team was a lifeless 1-4 with Kyle Orton at QB. Since then, Tebow has looked good at times (last five minutes of games) and horrid at others (entire 60 minutes against the Lions). However, in a division with a team that just lost is starting QB (Kansas City), a team who last win was against Denver in Week 5 (San Diego Chargers), and a team that just picked up a new quarterback after a strange sort of hold out (Oakland Raiders), they are far from out of it and in some way could be considered the favorites.
Before we go further into the Tebow-mania, let’s take a quick look at the schedules upcoming for the Raiders and Broncos…
The Raiders have four games left that they should win; today against the Vikings, Week 13 in Miami, Week 16 in Kansas City, and Week 17 against San Diego. At this point I’m writing off San Diego because they made a huge mistake when they let Darren Sproles go and now New Orleans has one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. On top of that, they finally started quickly and didn’t dig themselves a hole and since their 4-1 start, they’ve lost 4 straight and now have to play the Bears to right the ship. Anyways, those four wins would make the Raiders 9-4 with games left against Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit. I don’t see them winning any of those three and finishing 9-7.
The Broncos make or break game is next week against the Chargers. It will likely pit 5-5 Denver against 4-6 San Diego trailing 6-4 Oakland. If Denver wins, they can keep pace with the Raiders and keep pressure on them. If San Diego wins, they are back in the hunt since 9 or 10 wins will likely take this division. Let’s just say the Broncos win to get to 6-5 (and Tebow-mania finds a new high); after that they have Minnesota and Chicago followed by New England and Buffalo before finishing with Kansas City. Unless Tebow finds some more magic, I would see 8-8 as a realistic record for them.
The problem with that is this Broncos team has won three straight to get back to 5-5 in a manner that completely defies logic. Can they beat New England? Of course not. Can they beat a team that has been to the AFC title game each of the last two years? Absolutely not… oh wait, they just did.
You have to throw everything out the window when it comes to this team and they will go as far as their defense (led by remarkable rookie Von Miller) and Tim Tebow’s legs can carry them. Can they make it to the playoffs? Yes, I believe they can. In the glance ahead at their upcoming schedules, the only stretch I saw was Denver beating San Diego and if the Chargers lose today, that might not be that much of a stretch. What if Denver beats Buffalo and Oakland loses to Miami or San Diego?
I am a fan of Tim Tebow and it has nothing to do with his religion, his politics, or his ability as a quarterback. I think that he is a nice and humble young man and in this era of professional sports, I cannot possibly ask for anything more.
Kickoffs are just under an hour away so I’m sure some of what I’ve said here will be rendered moot by the end of the day but that’s just one of the many great things about sports; no matter how long you follow a sport or how much you know about it, on any given day, something can happen that completely defies logic.
Packers; 16-0? No
Colts; 0-16? Yes
Broncos; playoffs? No (just barely)
Manning; MVP votes? Absolutely
Rodgers; MVP? I’m not even going to answer that one…
Packers; back-to-back Super Bowl wins? Yes
Chaos is good and bad for the BCS. It makes it far more difficult to determine who the two best teams in the country are. However, when it comes to the actual BCS bowl games, you have far more quality teams and therefore the potential for better match-ups and more viewership. The nightmare scenario right now for the BCS would be if Arkansas can beat LSU next weekend. Then the only undefeated team would be one that hasn’t played anyone significant and while it might be easy to eliminate them from the national title conversation, how do you eliminate… umm, anyone else?
The BCS is overdue for a restructuring and the rumor is that it’s coming in the next couple of years. The most interesting scenario which I’d personally love to see is the BCS would be responsible for the national championship game only. Their formula would determine the top two teams in the country and they could then receive bids for stadiums to host that game (Jerry Jones and a (almost) record BCS crowd at Cowboys Stadium anyone?). The advantage to this idea is that gone would be some of the most unpopular aspects of the BCS. There would be no automatic qualifying conferences so Connecticut would not be forced to get hammered by a top ten Oklahoma team. There would no longer be a two team limit, which is going to completely screw the SEC this year (under current rules, if Georgia were to beat LSU in the SEC Championship Game, the SEC would potentially have teams at 12-1, 11-1, 11-2, and 10-2 and they could all be ranked in the top ten and deserving of a trip to a BCS bowl… and only two of them can go.
Lastly (for the NCAA section), do I think there will be a playoff someday in big-time college football? Absolutely not. Do I think there should be one? No, I don’t and the reason is simple. Under the current format, you have to play perfectly to make it to the title game and win it all. Last March was one of the more exciting NCAA Men’s Basketball Championships that I’ve ever seen but does anyone out there (outside of Indianapolis and Storrs, Connecticut) think that Butler and Connecticut were the two best basketball teams in the country? Of course they weren’t. They played the best over that month-long tournament; they got to the final not because they were the best team but because they were the hottest team. If you change the FBS system to a playoff, the same thing will start to happen. When I look at the list of NCAA Division-I FBS champions, I know that they were one of the best teams in the country. You can rarely say that anymore with March Madness.
NFL
The seasons is just past the halfway mark and while some playoff races have shaped up and are all but determined (I’m talking to you Seahawks, Cardinals, and Rams) others remain intriguing and most likely will until Week 17. This season has had it all but as far as this blogger is concerned, some stories stood out amongst the rest.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Today, the one who dubbed the Eagles the “Dream Team” will actually get to start for the first time. Due to Michael Vick’s broken ribs, Vince Young will get the start today for an Eagles team that is all but out at 3-6.
What went wrong? So many people thought they were going to win the NFC if not the Super Bowl. How did things go off the rails so quickly? Well, as is usually the case with teams not living up to expectations, it has been a combination of things but to me, one stands out above the rest; quarterback play.
Last year, everyone thought Vick had turned the corner and had finally learned how to be a pocket quarterback in the NFL. If he did, he somehow forgot nearly everything he learned. This year he is the quarterback that he was in Atlanta. He is still a supreme physical talent and a dynamic playmaker but anymore, that is not the most important part of being an NFL quarterback. If you look at four of the best quarterbacks in the NFL (in no particular order; Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers) they are at their best when they are surrounded by the playmakers. Their job is more one of distribution and leadership than leading by example. Michael Vick was very good in Atlanta when they had a great running attack and they just needed him to make a couple big plays every game. In Philadelphia, they need him to make numerous big plays every week and he isn’t the type of player who can do that consistently.
Other than that, your guess is as good as mine. The defense has needed some time to gel and not having a training camp hurt them greatly but their offense is a far greater concern. DeSean Jackson’s antics have been a distraction and he might not be back next season and this strikes a deeper chord than Vick’s passing. On a different team, Jackson would be kept in line by his fellow players. The teams I can think of off the top of my head are the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Baltimore Ravens, and the New England Patriots. In those places, veterans who have dominant personalities control those locker rooms and nothing goes on without them allowing it to happen. Where is that type of presence in Philadelphia? The short answer is that is doesn’t exist.
PLEASANT SURPRISES (LIONS AND 49ER’S)
One year ago, the Lions and 49ers were 6-10. The main difference is that there was no expectation for the Lions to compete with the likes of the Bears (11-5) or the Packers (10-6). The 49ers were picked to win the NFC West and nearly did, finishing just a game behind the Rams and Seahawks (7-9). The Lions were on the upswing at the end of the year, winning their last four games while the 49ers were just bad with a rookie holdout and then a head coach getting fired.
This year, they are both in line to make the playoffs. The Lions are 6-3 and while they have taken a couple of rough beatings in the last few weeks, they still control their own playoff fate and should make it to the playoffs. They are a case of having numerous high draft picks and actually getting a couple of them right. Matthew Stafford, Ndomukong Suh, and Calvin Johnson have all been playing at a very high level this year. However, I think one of their more important players has been Jahvid Best, the diminutive running back that has been out with an injury since their first loss to San Francisco. They started 5-1 with him and have lost two out of three since he went out. His home run ability out of the backfield as either a runner or a receiver has been sorely missed.
There has been a lot of talk lately about the Lions being a dirty team and I wanted to address that briefly. First of all, I have no problem with guys playing hard and playing rough. Of everything I saw (which I’ll freely admit is far from everything) in the first several weeks of the season, I didn’t see anything outside of the unwritten code of conduct on a football field. I saw a bunch of guys with a hard edge looking to make their opponents pay – that’s not dirty, that’s football. Despite the lack of visual evidence, the rumors persist. Last Sunday against the Bears, it was out in the open for everyone to see. Suh ripping the helmet off of Jay Cutler should have gotten him thrown out of the game. If you aren’t allowed to grab a guy’s facemask and you’re not allowed to grab his back collar and pull him backwards, why are you allowed to tackle a guy BY THE HELMET?
Unfortunately, this wasn’t even the worst transgression of the evening for the Bears – that dishonor belongs to Matthew Stafford. I understand that throwing interceptions is frustrating but nothing, I repeat nothing, gives Stafford the right to drag down a defensive player by the head, similar to what Suh did to Cutler. If it had been the ball carrier, I might have been able to give him a pass but it wasn’t, it was a blocker. Every quarterback should know that if you throw an interception and become a defensive player, you are not protected in any special way; if you go for the ball carrier, you are fair game to be blocked. What makes it even worse is the ball carrier had just passed Stafford and he still threw DJ Moore to the ground.
DJ Moore should have been ejected for his reaction; Stafford should have been ejected for starting the whole thing.
NOW THE 49ERS…
The 49ers, so bad a year ago (far worse than their 6-10 record) are now 8-1 and are sitting atop the league’s worst division (hotly contested by the AFC West). If they win today and the Seahawks also lose, they will clinch at worst a tie for the NFC West’s best record… with almost 40% of the season to go. This would be akin to a baseball team clinching their division in early August – it just doesn’t happen. So how has this turnaround happened?
A lot of people point to the influence that Jim Harbaugh has had on that team and it certainly can’t be overlooked. He has brought an edge to that team that it was missing and I think he will have success in the NFL. I think the most important thing he’s done this year is express his confidence in Alex Smith. The oft-maligned seventh year pro from Utah has never had a completion percentage better than 60.5% or a passer rating higher than 82.1 until this year. Right now those two marks stand at 64.0% and 95.8, respectively. Just to prove that he isn’t the game manager that everyone says he is, last week against the 6-2 Giants with Frank Gore proving less than effective, Smith threw the ball 30 times for 242 yards and led the 49ers to victory.
It’s beginning to show now that perhaps all he really needed was someone to believe in him. Now it looks like he’ll be quarterbacking either the #1 or the #2 seed in the NFC and with Frank Gore behind him, it’ll be very hard to bet against them come January.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Everyone knew that this team was in decline. Last year they started 6-6 and had to win their last four just to win the AFC Colts division and Peyton Manning posted his lowest passer rating since 2002 (91.9 – which still ranked 10th in the league). Then the lockout happened and Manning couldn’t consult with one of the therapists he trusts the most who happened to be on the Colts’ training staff.
Then he missed the first game of the season and once his consecutive games streak was over, the team and Manning decided that he shouldn’t rush back and should come back when he is 100%. Without Manning, everyone knew this team would miss the playoffs and would struggle to finish 8-8.
With 6 games remaining, the Colts have a solid grip on the #1 overall pick in next year’s draft and have a decent chance to become the third team ever to not win a game in a season and the second to go 0-16. This is yet another illustration of just how much Manning means to the Colts. Not only is he the offensive coordinator in everything but name, the entire roster is built around him, even on the defensive side. One of the reasons they have been so bad against the run the past several years (including during their Super Bowl run) is if you have a big lead, the other team can’t afford to run as much. Those were the types of leads that Manning would give them and virtually no other quarterback in the league could. This team is a house of cards and Manning is the glue that holds them solidly together; without him, they couldn’t win the Big Ten and would struggle to win the Big East.
I don’t believe in conspiracy theories with regards to the NFL draft. I don’t believe that it’s more than coincidence that Manning misses most of the season when there is a guy in the draft pool (potentially) who might be able to replace him. This team was built around #18 and without him, they are just downright terrible.
GREEN BAY PACKERS – AARON RODGERS
On the other end of the winning spectrum are the Packers, who enter today’s game with the Buccaneers 9-0 and playing some of the best offensive football that has ever been played and so far their success starts with Aaron Rodgers. His worst game of the season (by passer rating) was in their 27-17 win over the Bears when Rodgers was 28-38 for 297 yards with 3 touchdowns and one of his three interceptions for a rating of 111.4. Just four times this year has Rodgers rating been under 120 while the last three weeks, he’s posted a rating over 140 each time.
Since 1970, there have been 1,252 instances of a quarterback throwing at least 196 passes (to qualify for the rate statistics, you have to average at least 14 pass attempts per team game and the season used to be 14 games long so 14 x 14 = 196). Amongst those, in the four main components that form the NFL’s passer rating formula, Aaron Rodgers ranks:
1st in completion percentage
2nd in touchdown percentage
6th in interception percentage
2nd in yards per attempt
This is where things get a little skewed in my opinion. Coming into this year, the greatest single season performance by a quarterback did not come from Dan Marino or John Elway or Roger Staubach or Drew Brees or Tom Brady. It came from Peyton Manning.
People remember the high flying Patriots offense led by Brady’s 50 touchdown, 8 interception season but many forget that just three years before that, Peyton Manning had an even better season. The difference? Manning’s Colts never went 16-0.
Yes, Tom Brady threw one more touchdown pass and threw for 249 more yards than Manning. Brady also had 81 more attempts than Manning. This is the best way to normalize things; this is what the seasons for Manning and Brady would look like if each threw the ball 500 times.
Name – Completions-Attempts-Yards-TD-INT
Manning – 338-500-4,585-49-10
Brady – 344-500-4,157-43-7
Manning’s season was better as evidenced by the fact that his passer rating was better. Aaron Rodger’s isn’t trying to best Brady’s 2007 but Manning’s 2004. So what would Rodgers numbers look like if normalized to 500 pass attempts? In a word, ridiculous.
Rodgers – 364-500-4,863-47-5
IT’S A BIRD! IT’S A PLANE! NO, IT’S…
(Paraphrasing Kung Fu Panda)
LEGEND TELLS OF A LEGENDARY QUARTERBACK, WHOSE QUARTERBACKING SKILLS WERE THE STUFF OF LEGEND!
The most polarizing player in the league right now and perhaps ever is Tim Tebow. His delivery is slow, his reads are slower, but he has boatloads of “intangibles”. Currently, the Broncos are 5-5, just a half game behind the Raiders in the AFC West, a division which could have four 5-5 teams at the end of play today. When Tebow took over as the starting quarterback, the team was a lifeless 1-4 with Kyle Orton at QB. Since then, Tebow has looked good at times (last five minutes of games) and horrid at others (entire 60 minutes against the Lions). However, in a division with a team that just lost is starting QB (Kansas City), a team who last win was against Denver in Week 5 (San Diego Chargers), and a team that just picked up a new quarterback after a strange sort of hold out (Oakland Raiders), they are far from out of it and in some way could be considered the favorites.
Before we go further into the Tebow-mania, let’s take a quick look at the schedules upcoming for the Raiders and Broncos…
The Raiders have four games left that they should win; today against the Vikings, Week 13 in Miami, Week 16 in Kansas City, and Week 17 against San Diego. At this point I’m writing off San Diego because they made a huge mistake when they let Darren Sproles go and now New Orleans has one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. On top of that, they finally started quickly and didn’t dig themselves a hole and since their 4-1 start, they’ve lost 4 straight and now have to play the Bears to right the ship. Anyways, those four wins would make the Raiders 9-4 with games left against Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit. I don’t see them winning any of those three and finishing 9-7.
The Broncos make or break game is next week against the Chargers. It will likely pit 5-5 Denver against 4-6 San Diego trailing 6-4 Oakland. If Denver wins, they can keep pace with the Raiders and keep pressure on them. If San Diego wins, they are back in the hunt since 9 or 10 wins will likely take this division. Let’s just say the Broncos win to get to 6-5 (and Tebow-mania finds a new high); after that they have Minnesota and Chicago followed by New England and Buffalo before finishing with Kansas City. Unless Tebow finds some more magic, I would see 8-8 as a realistic record for them.
The problem with that is this Broncos team has won three straight to get back to 5-5 in a manner that completely defies logic. Can they beat New England? Of course not. Can they beat a team that has been to the AFC title game each of the last two years? Absolutely not… oh wait, they just did.
You have to throw everything out the window when it comes to this team and they will go as far as their defense (led by remarkable rookie Von Miller) and Tim Tebow’s legs can carry them. Can they make it to the playoffs? Yes, I believe they can. In the glance ahead at their upcoming schedules, the only stretch I saw was Denver beating San Diego and if the Chargers lose today, that might not be that much of a stretch. What if Denver beats Buffalo and Oakland loses to Miami or San Diego?
I am a fan of Tim Tebow and it has nothing to do with his religion, his politics, or his ability as a quarterback. I think that he is a nice and humble young man and in this era of professional sports, I cannot possibly ask for anything more.
Kickoffs are just under an hour away so I’m sure some of what I’ve said here will be rendered moot by the end of the day but that’s just one of the many great things about sports; no matter how long you follow a sport or how much you know about it, on any given day, something can happen that completely defies logic.
Packers; 16-0? No
Colts; 0-16? Yes
Broncos; playoffs? No (just barely)
Manning; MVP votes? Absolutely
Rodgers; MVP? I’m not even going to answer that one…
Packers; back-to-back Super Bowl wins? Yes
Saturday, January 15, 2011
BCS Recap 2011
The college football season has been over for several days now and if you’re anything like me, you’re going through some serious FBS withdrawals. So in order to help you (and me) cope, I’m going to go through the winners and losers from this year’s BCS season (while flitting briefly back into the rest of the bowl season).
I was very surprised when I was making these lists how many teams and conferences ended up on both sides. This year I’m going to lump them together into the “Bittersweet” category. Without any further delay, let’s jump right in with the losers of this year’s BCS season.
LOSERS
E. GORDON GEE
The president of The Ohio State University put his foot in his mouth a while ago by saying that, all else being equal, non-AQ schools don’t deserve BCS berths and most of his reasoning was based on relative strength of schedule. As he infamously quipped, “we do not play the Little Sisters of the Poor.”
Ohio State finished the season 12-1 after a Sugar Bowl win against Arkansas. That one loss came to Wisconsin by a score of 31-18. TCU, who clearly made it to the BCS on the backs of weakling opponents, was blown out by Wiscon-…
Wait, they won? They held the Badgers juggernaut offense to 19 points when Ohio State couldn’t hold them under 30?
The same trend that has made the NCAA men’s basketball tournament so much fun is starting to creep into college football as well. The fact of the matter is that there are too many good coaches and too many good players at the FBS level and because of that, it’s no longer inconceivable that the best team in the country comes from the Mountain West or the WAC. Do they play weaker opponents? Yes. Does that necessarily mean that they are not better teams?
Just check the final BCS and AP polls of the season. Nevada was ranked 11th, Boise State 9th, and only one team ended up ranked higher than TCU.
To all of you traditional power people spewing garbage about how the little guys don’t belong on the same field as you, I offer this challenge. Get on the field and prove it. If you want to make them go away, go into their house and dominate. Until then, just shut up.
THE BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Not only did Wisconsin lose in the Rose Bowl to TCU, but Ohio State followed up their brilliant first half with a shoddy at best second half in the Sugar Bowl to eke out a win. The Buckeyes desperately needed an interception after allowing the Razorbacks to block a punt and recover the ball deep in OSU territory with a minute left.
Before the BCS kicked off, Iowa beat Missouri, Illinois beat Baylor, and Kansas State lost a close one to Syracuse on a controversial penalty.
Then Penn State lost to Florida 37-24. That’s not too bad, it was Urban Meyer’s last game so they were obviously jacked up for the game. But then Michigan and BCS contender Michigan State combined to lose by a score of 101-21.
All in all, the Big Ten finished 3-5 in their bowl games but just 1-3 against the mighty SEC and it very well could have been 0-4 were it not for the Buckeyes stout defense. They have a long way to go before being considered one of the best conferences in the country.
WINNERS
PAC-10
Despite losing the BCS National Championship Game, the Pac-10 turned a lot of heads this postseason. People were harping on the conference when they only had 4 teams that were bowl eligible at the end of the season (although USC being ineligible isn’t exactly the conference’s fault; the Trojans did finish 8-5) and it didn’t start well when Oklahoma State put a hurting on Arizona 36-10.
At that point there was a sentiment that the Pac-10 might go 0-4 in those bowls. After all, Oregon was matched up against Auburn of the mighty SEC for the title, Stanford was going up against a tough Virginia Tech team that had won 11 in a row and Washington was playing the same Nebraska team that went up to Seattle and crushed the Huskies 56-21 just a few short weeks ago.
Washington 19, #18 Nebraska 7
#4 Stanford 40, #13 Virginia Tech 12
At this point, I thought that the Pac-10 had done enough to be considered a “winner” in the bowl season. Then Oregon went out and allowed Auburn the second fewest points of their championship season and they never trailed by more than 8 points. Considering that the margins of victory in the SEC’s previous four BCS title games were 27, 14, 10, and 16 (and truth be told, only Florida’s 24-14 win over Oklahoma was as close as the final score would indicate) staying within a touchdown of the best the SEC had to offer was a good accomplishment for the Ducks.
SEC
Five consecutive BCS titles that have gone to four different schools. I may be a big fan of the Pac-10 and not a huge fan of the SEC but I am not deluded enough to say that any conference is anywhere close to as good as the SEC right now. Despite the fact that the conference went 5-5 in their bowl games and couldn’t even sweep their two BCS appearances, they did nothing to dispel the sentiment that they are the best conference.
To everyone else out there, if you want SEC fans, players, coaches, university personnel, and analysts to stop talking about the SEC’s dominance, beat them. Until then, live with it.
BITTERSWEET
I decided to create this category this season because it seemed that there were a large group of people that had ups this bowl season that weren’t without the downs and for our first entrant, we look no farther than our newly anointed national champions.
AUBURN
Enjoy it while it lasts Tiger fans.
Cam Newton has declared for the NFL draft and perhaps more importantly, game-changing defensive tackle Nick Fairley has also decided to go pro. On the strength of those two players and what they did this season, I am almost willing to say right now that next year is looking like an 8 or 9 win season for Auburn. Congratulations on a national championship but I’ll put good money on them not repeating.
NON-AQ
TCU got to the Rose Bowl, played a big time AQ opponent and beat them without resorting to “trick” plays. They played a very straightforward game and they beat the Badgers straight up. With this signature win being exactly what the non-AQ teams have wanted forever, what could possibly land them in this category?
The non-AQ conferences ended the season with 6 teams ranked in the BCS Top 25. They were:
#3 TCU
#10 Boise State
#15 Nevada
#19 Utah
#24 Hawaii
#25 UCF
Unfortunately, Boise State was never considered for an at-large selection to a BCS bowl. Of course, say the detractors, they lost to a conference opponent in the WAC! They lost by a field goal on the road at a ranked team. How many other teams in the country would have dropped from 4th to 11th in one week when losing to a ranked team on the road?
The search for respect continues…
THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY
They ended their famous drought where they had never beaten an SEC team in a bowl game and played one of the best halves of football in any BCS game (topped, if at all, only by Stanford’s second half against Virginia Tech). In the second half, they almost looked disinterested on offense, scoring just 3 points and allowing the Razorbacks to chip away at their lead slowly but surely.
On top of that, the only reason that the players who sold memorabilia were allowed to play is if they committed to Coach Jim Tressel that they would come back to school next year and serve their suspensions. I personally don’t think they should have been allowed to play in this game but they were nonetheless and as a further ramification, the Buckeyes will need some extraordinary play from the guys replacing these players to compete for another BCS berth next year.
The last thing I want to mention about the 2010-2011 bowl season is the controversy that threatened to derail the magical season of Auburn this year and if Cam Newton knew anything about it, that magical season deserved to be derailed. I’m not going to say that I wish he had been declared ineligible (and more importantly, not reinstated) or that the Oregon Ducks got cheated out of a national championship.
As I have said before in this space specifically in reference to the Reggie Bush situation with USC, history happened, we can’t change it. Did Cam Newton deserve the Heisman this year? Absolutely. Did Auburn deserve to win the national title? Without a doubt; while I still think that Oregon was the slightly better team and would win maybe 53 out of 100 games, on this day, Auburn was hands down the better team… just by a little bit.
All that I don’t want to see is evidence that Cam Newton knew about the “pay-for-play” scheme during his time at Auburn. It cheapens everything Auburn did this year and if that is the case, then yes, Oregon got screwed a bit just like Oklahoma (and one could argue, Auburn) a few years ago by Reggie Bush.
I hope nothing comes out and I hope that he is telling the truth even though I was pulling for the Ducks. I like to see my teams win but above that, I like to see good clean football and this year’s national championship game was exactly that… assuming Newton was eligible.
I hope you enjoyed the FBS season this year as much as I did and I can’t wait to write more about it next year. However, it is that time once again to shift my focus to the NFL, then the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and eventually Major League Baseball.
Until next time…
I was very surprised when I was making these lists how many teams and conferences ended up on both sides. This year I’m going to lump them together into the “Bittersweet” category. Without any further delay, let’s jump right in with the losers of this year’s BCS season.
LOSERS
E. GORDON GEE
The president of The Ohio State University put his foot in his mouth a while ago by saying that, all else being equal, non-AQ schools don’t deserve BCS berths and most of his reasoning was based on relative strength of schedule. As he infamously quipped, “we do not play the Little Sisters of the Poor.”
Ohio State finished the season 12-1 after a Sugar Bowl win against Arkansas. That one loss came to Wisconsin by a score of 31-18. TCU, who clearly made it to the BCS on the backs of weakling opponents, was blown out by Wiscon-…
Wait, they won? They held the Badgers juggernaut offense to 19 points when Ohio State couldn’t hold them under 30?
The same trend that has made the NCAA men’s basketball tournament so much fun is starting to creep into college football as well. The fact of the matter is that there are too many good coaches and too many good players at the FBS level and because of that, it’s no longer inconceivable that the best team in the country comes from the Mountain West or the WAC. Do they play weaker opponents? Yes. Does that necessarily mean that they are not better teams?
Just check the final BCS and AP polls of the season. Nevada was ranked 11th, Boise State 9th, and only one team ended up ranked higher than TCU.
To all of you traditional power people spewing garbage about how the little guys don’t belong on the same field as you, I offer this challenge. Get on the field and prove it. If you want to make them go away, go into their house and dominate. Until then, just shut up.
THE BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Not only did Wisconsin lose in the Rose Bowl to TCU, but Ohio State followed up their brilliant first half with a shoddy at best second half in the Sugar Bowl to eke out a win. The Buckeyes desperately needed an interception after allowing the Razorbacks to block a punt and recover the ball deep in OSU territory with a minute left.
Before the BCS kicked off, Iowa beat Missouri, Illinois beat Baylor, and Kansas State lost a close one to Syracuse on a controversial penalty.
Then Penn State lost to Florida 37-24. That’s not too bad, it was Urban Meyer’s last game so they were obviously jacked up for the game. But then Michigan and BCS contender Michigan State combined to lose by a score of 101-21.
All in all, the Big Ten finished 3-5 in their bowl games but just 1-3 against the mighty SEC and it very well could have been 0-4 were it not for the Buckeyes stout defense. They have a long way to go before being considered one of the best conferences in the country.
WINNERS
PAC-10
Despite losing the BCS National Championship Game, the Pac-10 turned a lot of heads this postseason. People were harping on the conference when they only had 4 teams that were bowl eligible at the end of the season (although USC being ineligible isn’t exactly the conference’s fault; the Trojans did finish 8-5) and it didn’t start well when Oklahoma State put a hurting on Arizona 36-10.
At that point there was a sentiment that the Pac-10 might go 0-4 in those bowls. After all, Oregon was matched up against Auburn of the mighty SEC for the title, Stanford was going up against a tough Virginia Tech team that had won 11 in a row and Washington was playing the same Nebraska team that went up to Seattle and crushed the Huskies 56-21 just a few short weeks ago.
Washington 19, #18 Nebraska 7
#4 Stanford 40, #13 Virginia Tech 12
At this point, I thought that the Pac-10 had done enough to be considered a “winner” in the bowl season. Then Oregon went out and allowed Auburn the second fewest points of their championship season and they never trailed by more than 8 points. Considering that the margins of victory in the SEC’s previous four BCS title games were 27, 14, 10, and 16 (and truth be told, only Florida’s 24-14 win over Oklahoma was as close as the final score would indicate) staying within a touchdown of the best the SEC had to offer was a good accomplishment for the Ducks.
SEC
Five consecutive BCS titles that have gone to four different schools. I may be a big fan of the Pac-10 and not a huge fan of the SEC but I am not deluded enough to say that any conference is anywhere close to as good as the SEC right now. Despite the fact that the conference went 5-5 in their bowl games and couldn’t even sweep their two BCS appearances, they did nothing to dispel the sentiment that they are the best conference.
To everyone else out there, if you want SEC fans, players, coaches, university personnel, and analysts to stop talking about the SEC’s dominance, beat them. Until then, live with it.
BITTERSWEET
I decided to create this category this season because it seemed that there were a large group of people that had ups this bowl season that weren’t without the downs and for our first entrant, we look no farther than our newly anointed national champions.
AUBURN
Enjoy it while it lasts Tiger fans.
Cam Newton has declared for the NFL draft and perhaps more importantly, game-changing defensive tackle Nick Fairley has also decided to go pro. On the strength of those two players and what they did this season, I am almost willing to say right now that next year is looking like an 8 or 9 win season for Auburn. Congratulations on a national championship but I’ll put good money on them not repeating.
NON-AQ
TCU got to the Rose Bowl, played a big time AQ opponent and beat them without resorting to “trick” plays. They played a very straightforward game and they beat the Badgers straight up. With this signature win being exactly what the non-AQ teams have wanted forever, what could possibly land them in this category?
The non-AQ conferences ended the season with 6 teams ranked in the BCS Top 25. They were:
#3 TCU
#10 Boise State
#15 Nevada
#19 Utah
#24 Hawaii
#25 UCF
Unfortunately, Boise State was never considered for an at-large selection to a BCS bowl. Of course, say the detractors, they lost to a conference opponent in the WAC! They lost by a field goal on the road at a ranked team. How many other teams in the country would have dropped from 4th to 11th in one week when losing to a ranked team on the road?
The search for respect continues…
THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY
They ended their famous drought where they had never beaten an SEC team in a bowl game and played one of the best halves of football in any BCS game (topped, if at all, only by Stanford’s second half against Virginia Tech). In the second half, they almost looked disinterested on offense, scoring just 3 points and allowing the Razorbacks to chip away at their lead slowly but surely.
On top of that, the only reason that the players who sold memorabilia were allowed to play is if they committed to Coach Jim Tressel that they would come back to school next year and serve their suspensions. I personally don’t think they should have been allowed to play in this game but they were nonetheless and as a further ramification, the Buckeyes will need some extraordinary play from the guys replacing these players to compete for another BCS berth next year.
The last thing I want to mention about the 2010-2011 bowl season is the controversy that threatened to derail the magical season of Auburn this year and if Cam Newton knew anything about it, that magical season deserved to be derailed. I’m not going to say that I wish he had been declared ineligible (and more importantly, not reinstated) or that the Oregon Ducks got cheated out of a national championship.
As I have said before in this space specifically in reference to the Reggie Bush situation with USC, history happened, we can’t change it. Did Cam Newton deserve the Heisman this year? Absolutely. Did Auburn deserve to win the national title? Without a doubt; while I still think that Oregon was the slightly better team and would win maybe 53 out of 100 games, on this day, Auburn was hands down the better team… just by a little bit.
All that I don’t want to see is evidence that Cam Newton knew about the “pay-for-play” scheme during his time at Auburn. It cheapens everything Auburn did this year and if that is the case, then yes, Oregon got screwed a bit just like Oklahoma (and one could argue, Auburn) a few years ago by Reggie Bush.
I hope nothing comes out and I hope that he is telling the truth even though I was pulling for the Ducks. I like to see my teams win but above that, I like to see good clean football and this year’s national championship game was exactly that… assuming Newton was eligible.
I hope you enjoyed the FBS season this year as much as I did and I can’t wait to write more about it next year. However, it is that time once again to shift my focus to the NFL, then the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and eventually Major League Baseball.
Until next time…
Saturday, December 18, 2010
BCS Preview 2011 - Moral Victories
There comes a point in the sporting career of certain people when their primary desire is to win and not to have fun. A good number of those people either play sports at a very high level or quit because they can’t make it to that high level and don’t win enough. For the rest of us mere mortals, we search for the moral victories within sporting events, the silver lining that makes the contest worth participating in despite the gut-wrenching loss.
If you ask the vast majority of quarterbacks in the NFL, would you rather throw for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns in a losing effort or throw for 100 yards and 5 interceptions, I’m willing to bet that they would say they’d rather have the latter. It is that desire to win above all else that makes them as good as they are.
So what is the silver lining for each of the five BCS bowl games? That is the question that I’m going to try to answer with one small addition. I’m going to describe a moral victory for each of the teams playing and then I’m also going to describe what a moral victory would be for college football fans at large. The one thing to remember though is when I’m talking about college football fans, I’m not talking about fans of the individual teams because it’s fairly obvious what a moral victory would be for those people; an actual victory.
For the most part, a moral victory for each individual team also includes actually outscoring their opponents come game day. However, there are some off the field factors at play in several of these match-ups that can lead to increased good feelings whether the outcome is a win or a loss.
ROSE BOWL
WISCONSIN
In a conference that has been dominated by Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, the Badgers have a chance to take a big step forward on the national stage. Their #5 ranking is the highest ranking they’ve had in the BCS era and their next game is against the #3 team in the country. If they win the Rose Bowl, their postseason ranking will be in the top four, if not third or even second, depending on the outcomes of the other BCS bowls.
Despite an overall record of 90-39 over the last ten years, the Badgers have won ten games only three times before this year and this is their first appearance in the Rose Bowl since January of 2001. Wisconsin has the chance to step to the forefront of the Big Ten by taking the conference title and winning what is arguably the most prestigious bowl game in college football.
TCU
The only match-up that could have been better for the Horned Frogs is either if they were playing in the national championship game or if they had drawn Ohio State in a BCS bowl. They happened to draw the only team this year to beat the Buckeyes and not only did Wisconsin beat the Buckeyes, they did it right after Ohio State had risen to #1 in the polls and they did it in a more humiliating manner than #1 teams are used to (31-18).
This is one of the few teams that doesn’t have to win to claim a moral victory. Wisconsin is playing some of the best football of the season, having outscored their last four opponents 235-84. All TCU has to do is play close to Wisconsin and they can make a logical inference that they played the Badgers just about as tough as the Buckeyes did back in the middle of October. If TCU can beat Wisconsin, it will be one last bit of egg on the face of E. Gorgon Gee, president of The Ohio State University. While the transitive law of sports doesn’t apply (just because A beats B and B beats C doesn’t mean that A is better than C), everyone will have to admit (no matter how begrudgingly) that TCU can play with any team in the country.
THE FANS
The silver lining is evenly divided for the fans. Some people want to see the imposter that is TCU lose and lose badly to prove that the five smaller conferences do not belong on the same stage as the six “automatic qualifier” conferences. Others want to see TCU lay a beat-down on Wisconsin to prove once and for all that teams from the smaller conference can compete with the best from the bigger conferences.
TCU has been one of the best teams from the non-AQ conferences for the last several years so some might say that if they don’t win and finish this season off undefeated, this year would be looked at as a disappointment. I completely disagree. They used this year, on top of the last few years, to get an invitation to join the Big East starting in 2012. Granted, I would have much rather seen them join the Big Used-To-Be-8-Then-12-Now-Is-10 or the Pac Used-To-Be-8-Then-10-Then-Almost-16-But-12-Instead, but now they never have to worry about being on the outside looking in simply because they play in the wrong conference.
This does bring up an interesting question though; is the best way to change a system from the outside looking in bringing the spotlight out onto the unfairness of the situation or is it to join the system and attempt to change it from the inside? Of the four teams that have made it to a BCS bowl from outside the 6 AQ conferences, two of them (TCU and Utah) have jumped ship and are joining the Big East and Pac-12, respectively. Interesting food for thought and perhaps another post in the future…
FIESTA BOWL
CONNECTICUT
The Huskies ranked behind 95 of the 120 FBS teams in total offense and behind 61 of them in scoring offense. A moral victory for them is not getting blown out. I hate to say it that way but considering that they went 8-4 this year and didn’t even have the best record in their own conference (West Virginia went 9-3) and that they are playing a team like Oklahoma, they are going to be huge underdogs and the fact of the matter is if they can keep the game close into the fourth quarter, they will have achieved a moral victory.
OKLAHOMA
There is virtually no way that Oklahoma can achieve a moral victory in this game. They are expected to win and they are expected to win big. The Sooners have nothing to win and everything to lose in this game. Unlike several years ago when they were facing off against Boise State, Connecticut is not going to be mistaken for one of the top ten teams in the country. Boise State was 12-0 going into that game and UConn’s 8-4 record is a far cry from the talent on that Broncos team.
ORANGE BOWL
VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies came into this season with legitimate aspirations to run the table in the ACC and challenge for the top two spots in the BCS standings. Those hopes weren’t even derailed with their opening night loss to #3 Boise State down the road from their Blacksburg, Virginia, campus. If everything went according to plan, after that game they would have finished the regular season 12-1 and would have been considered one of the best one-loss teams in the country. What really killed their lofty goals was their terrible loss to James Madison the week after losing to Boise State.
To rebound from those two losses and win 11 straight, becoming the first team to go 8-0 in ACC play, is a testament to the character of this team. To finish off this season with a win over a very good Stanford team would certainly help people forget how high their hopes were at the beginning of the season.
STANFORD
This season has already been a resounding success for the Cardinal and they currently have the hottest prospect for future NFL quarterbacks and future head coaches. Their only loss is to #2 Oregon that only lost their #1 ranking to Auburn because they played more ranked teams down the stretch. They will also be playing in just their second BCS bowl along with the 2000 Rose Bowl which they lost after an 8-3, Pac-10 champion season. They have already exceeded their expectations for this season and no matter how they do, this season will be a success.
SUGAR BOWL
OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes will be making their 6th consecutive BCS bowl appearance and their 9th in 13 years which, in and of itself, is a moral victory. They have been there and done that enough that they can’t really gain all that many points by not winning in a stylish manner. Their struggles against the SEC have been very well publicized and they are fresh out of excuses.
ARKANSAS
The fact that they are here is a moral victory. They survived their brutal SEC schedule to go 10-2 and get an at-large bid, their first BCS bowl appearance. This Ohio State team is a very good one so even if they don’t win and play well, it will still be considered a successful season. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain by beating Ohio State.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
AUBURN
Unfortunately, the biggest moral victory that Auburn can get is for the NCAA to close the investigation into Cam Newton’s pay-for-play controversy. They are ranked #1 in the country, they have the Heisman Trophy winner playing quarterback for them, and they seem to have everything in their favor right now. If we are assuming that they are going to lose the national title game, I would say the biggest thing they can do to achieve a moral victory would be to not get blown out. If their terribly porous pass defense and their stout run defense can put a stop to the Blur, it will be disappoint. If they can stop Oregon, they should win.
OREGON
The biggest consolation for the Ducks right now is with how poorly Auburn has been playing in the first halves and how well Cam Newton has been playing in the second halves, they are actually flying a little under the radar which intrigues me because Oregon is the better all around team and the better all around offense. Auburn goes as Newton goes but Oregon has multiple playmakers on offense to go to if any one of them aren’t having a great game. A month ago, I would have said that the oddsmakers would be favoring Oregon but after the Alabama game and then the SEC title game, I can definitely see them giving the nod to Auburn.
The Ducks have played outstanding offense and underrated defense while running the table in an underrated conference. Arguably the biggest moral victory that they could get would be the respect that the Pac-10 would gain if they and Stanford were able to win their bowl games. Take into account that some of their most prominent playmakers are underclassmen and you have to like where the Ducks are right now.
If you ask the vast majority of quarterbacks in the NFL, would you rather throw for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns in a losing effort or throw for 100 yards and 5 interceptions, I’m willing to bet that they would say they’d rather have the latter. It is that desire to win above all else that makes them as good as they are.
So what is the silver lining for each of the five BCS bowl games? That is the question that I’m going to try to answer with one small addition. I’m going to describe a moral victory for each of the teams playing and then I’m also going to describe what a moral victory would be for college football fans at large. The one thing to remember though is when I’m talking about college football fans, I’m not talking about fans of the individual teams because it’s fairly obvious what a moral victory would be for those people; an actual victory.
For the most part, a moral victory for each individual team also includes actually outscoring their opponents come game day. However, there are some off the field factors at play in several of these match-ups that can lead to increased good feelings whether the outcome is a win or a loss.
ROSE BOWL
WISCONSIN
In a conference that has been dominated by Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, the Badgers have a chance to take a big step forward on the national stage. Their #5 ranking is the highest ranking they’ve had in the BCS era and their next game is against the #3 team in the country. If they win the Rose Bowl, their postseason ranking will be in the top four, if not third or even second, depending on the outcomes of the other BCS bowls.
Despite an overall record of 90-39 over the last ten years, the Badgers have won ten games only three times before this year and this is their first appearance in the Rose Bowl since January of 2001. Wisconsin has the chance to step to the forefront of the Big Ten by taking the conference title and winning what is arguably the most prestigious bowl game in college football.
TCU
The only match-up that could have been better for the Horned Frogs is either if they were playing in the national championship game or if they had drawn Ohio State in a BCS bowl. They happened to draw the only team this year to beat the Buckeyes and not only did Wisconsin beat the Buckeyes, they did it right after Ohio State had risen to #1 in the polls and they did it in a more humiliating manner than #1 teams are used to (31-18).
This is one of the few teams that doesn’t have to win to claim a moral victory. Wisconsin is playing some of the best football of the season, having outscored their last four opponents 235-84. All TCU has to do is play close to Wisconsin and they can make a logical inference that they played the Badgers just about as tough as the Buckeyes did back in the middle of October. If TCU can beat Wisconsin, it will be one last bit of egg on the face of E. Gorgon Gee, president of The Ohio State University. While the transitive law of sports doesn’t apply (just because A beats B and B beats C doesn’t mean that A is better than C), everyone will have to admit (no matter how begrudgingly) that TCU can play with any team in the country.
THE FANS
The silver lining is evenly divided for the fans. Some people want to see the imposter that is TCU lose and lose badly to prove that the five smaller conferences do not belong on the same stage as the six “automatic qualifier” conferences. Others want to see TCU lay a beat-down on Wisconsin to prove once and for all that teams from the smaller conference can compete with the best from the bigger conferences.
TCU has been one of the best teams from the non-AQ conferences for the last several years so some might say that if they don’t win and finish this season off undefeated, this year would be looked at as a disappointment. I completely disagree. They used this year, on top of the last few years, to get an invitation to join the Big East starting in 2012. Granted, I would have much rather seen them join the Big Used-To-Be-8-Then-12-Now-Is-10 or the Pac Used-To-Be-8-Then-10-Then-Almost-16-But-12-Instead, but now they never have to worry about being on the outside looking in simply because they play in the wrong conference.
This does bring up an interesting question though; is the best way to change a system from the outside looking in bringing the spotlight out onto the unfairness of the situation or is it to join the system and attempt to change it from the inside? Of the four teams that have made it to a BCS bowl from outside the 6 AQ conferences, two of them (TCU and Utah) have jumped ship and are joining the Big East and Pac-12, respectively. Interesting food for thought and perhaps another post in the future…
FIESTA BOWL
CONNECTICUT
The Huskies ranked behind 95 of the 120 FBS teams in total offense and behind 61 of them in scoring offense. A moral victory for them is not getting blown out. I hate to say it that way but considering that they went 8-4 this year and didn’t even have the best record in their own conference (West Virginia went 9-3) and that they are playing a team like Oklahoma, they are going to be huge underdogs and the fact of the matter is if they can keep the game close into the fourth quarter, they will have achieved a moral victory.
OKLAHOMA
There is virtually no way that Oklahoma can achieve a moral victory in this game. They are expected to win and they are expected to win big. The Sooners have nothing to win and everything to lose in this game. Unlike several years ago when they were facing off against Boise State, Connecticut is not going to be mistaken for one of the top ten teams in the country. Boise State was 12-0 going into that game and UConn’s 8-4 record is a far cry from the talent on that Broncos team.
ORANGE BOWL
VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies came into this season with legitimate aspirations to run the table in the ACC and challenge for the top two spots in the BCS standings. Those hopes weren’t even derailed with their opening night loss to #3 Boise State down the road from their Blacksburg, Virginia, campus. If everything went according to plan, after that game they would have finished the regular season 12-1 and would have been considered one of the best one-loss teams in the country. What really killed their lofty goals was their terrible loss to James Madison the week after losing to Boise State.
To rebound from those two losses and win 11 straight, becoming the first team to go 8-0 in ACC play, is a testament to the character of this team. To finish off this season with a win over a very good Stanford team would certainly help people forget how high their hopes were at the beginning of the season.
STANFORD
This season has already been a resounding success for the Cardinal and they currently have the hottest prospect for future NFL quarterbacks and future head coaches. Their only loss is to #2 Oregon that only lost their #1 ranking to Auburn because they played more ranked teams down the stretch. They will also be playing in just their second BCS bowl along with the 2000 Rose Bowl which they lost after an 8-3, Pac-10 champion season. They have already exceeded their expectations for this season and no matter how they do, this season will be a success.
SUGAR BOWL
OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes will be making their 6th consecutive BCS bowl appearance and their 9th in 13 years which, in and of itself, is a moral victory. They have been there and done that enough that they can’t really gain all that many points by not winning in a stylish manner. Their struggles against the SEC have been very well publicized and they are fresh out of excuses.
ARKANSAS
The fact that they are here is a moral victory. They survived their brutal SEC schedule to go 10-2 and get an at-large bid, their first BCS bowl appearance. This Ohio State team is a very good one so even if they don’t win and play well, it will still be considered a successful season. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain by beating Ohio State.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
AUBURN
Unfortunately, the biggest moral victory that Auburn can get is for the NCAA to close the investigation into Cam Newton’s pay-for-play controversy. They are ranked #1 in the country, they have the Heisman Trophy winner playing quarterback for them, and they seem to have everything in their favor right now. If we are assuming that they are going to lose the national title game, I would say the biggest thing they can do to achieve a moral victory would be to not get blown out. If their terribly porous pass defense and their stout run defense can put a stop to the Blur, it will be disappoint. If they can stop Oregon, they should win.
OREGON
The biggest consolation for the Ducks right now is with how poorly Auburn has been playing in the first halves and how well Cam Newton has been playing in the second halves, they are actually flying a little under the radar which intrigues me because Oregon is the better all around team and the better all around offense. Auburn goes as Newton goes but Oregon has multiple playmakers on offense to go to if any one of them aren’t having a great game. A month ago, I would have said that the oddsmakers would be favoring Oregon but after the Alabama game and then the SEC title game, I can definitely see them giving the nod to Auburn.
The Ducks have played outstanding offense and underrated defense while running the table in an underrated conference. Arguably the biggest moral victory that they could get would be the respect that the Pac-10 would gain if they and Stanford were able to win their bowl games. Take into account that some of their most prominent playmakers are underclassmen and you have to like where the Ducks are right now.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
State of Football Address - FBS Edition
The calendar says December now which means that attention has turned from the regular season grind to studying for finals and winter vacation on college campuses all over the country… yeah, right.
Once again we have started our annual dance to try to figure out the permutations that will allow certain teams to leapfrog certain other teams in the annual beauty pageant that the NCAA refers to as the BCS. This year though, thanks to a plucky Wolfpack, it’s a lot more straightforward and the cries of BCS opponents have become somewhat muted. Instead of arguing over who gets to play for the top prize, the arguments this year surround the much less contentious topic of who gets to play in the BCS bowls.
For instance, in the Big Ten, three teams have identical 11-1 (7-1) records, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State and as of this past Sunday, they are ranked 5th, 6th, and 8th, respectively, in the BCS. Under past Big Ten tiebreaking rules, they would have sent the team that was suffering the longest current Rose Bowl drought to Pasadena, which would have sent the Spartans to the parade of roses. However, currently, they simply use whoever is the highest ranked team in the BCS, which will more or less inevitably send the Badgers to the Rose Bowl. While I feel bad for Michigan State, who had a great season, I have a hard time arguing that Wisconsin doesn’t deserve to go given that for several weeks now, they have been the absolute best team in the Big Ten (though I believe that the football gods may be putting them up on a pedestal only to knock them down because of their three victories by scores of 70-23, 70-3, and 83-20).
As much as I am a fan of the underdogs, this simply wasn’t their season. For almost all of last year, I believed that TCU was a more worthy candidate than Boise State and that belief got thrown back in my face in the Fiesta Bowl in the form of a head to head loss to the Smurf Turf Broncos. After that game, I became a believer in Chris Peterson and Kellen Moore along with the other 19 starters they had returning but nobody who mattered seemed to jump on the bandwagon. They started the season 5th in the polls and seemed to be fighting an immense uphill battle, getting leapfrogged in the rankings four times by Oklahoma, Auburn, Oregon, and TCU. Despite winning a de facto road game against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season, they only gained ground but never moved up the rankings. After starting the season at #3, they moved up in the standings just twice and both occurrences were after a leapfrogging team that had pushed them down to #4 lost.
I’m not asking you to feel sorry for Boise State. They knew coming into this season that in order to play for the ultimate prize, they had to be perfect and in the end, they couldn’t do it, losing a heartbreaker to Nevada 34-31, missing two short field goals and getting dominated in the second half. Now all the focus shifts to TCU and unless the Gamecocks can beat Auburn, TCU will have to settle for the Rose Bowl and while that pales in comparison to the BCS National Championship Game, that’s one hell of a consolation prize. Trust me, I’m a fan of the Washington Huskies; I’d love to have my team playing in the Rose Bowl this year.
THE BOWLS
Right now the Bowl picture seems pretty clear but there is still plenty of room for chaos and that all starts Saturday in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. #1 Auburn will play #19 South Carolina in a rematch of one of the few games that Auburn struggled in this year. If the Tigers manage to lose, then TCU will undoubtedly move up to #2 and play Oregon for the national title. However, I do have to mention that Oregon plays Oregon State in the Civil War game and even though the Beavers are 5-6, you always have to take rivalry games seriously because anything can happen.
Barring disaster, Oregon and Auburn will play for all the marbles. TCU and Stanford will get into the BCS party via the “3-4 rule” saying that the 3rd and 4th ranked teams in the BCS are guaranteed BCS Bowl berths. Wisconsin looks all but certain to win the BCS tiebreakers in the Big Ten, which will leave Ohio State and Michigan State hoping for an at-large bid.
The Big XII Championship Game will be one of the more interesting games, pitting #9 Oklahoma against #13 Nebraska. Likewise, the ACC title game between #15 Virginia Tech and #21 Florida State will also be an interesting game as Virginia Tech attempts to finish their undefeated ACC season.
Which leaves the Big East. I never would have expected to write these words in all my life when talking about football… Connecticut controls their own destiny in the Big East. In that respect, it is one heck of a weird season. It is also easy to see why TCU will join the Big East which is quite simply the weakest conference with an automatic BCS bid. I’m very near willing to pencil in TCU for that berth for the next year or two but I digress.
That gives us a total of eight teams in the BCS; who will the last two be? According to BCS rules, the following teams are eligible for at-large bids (excluding those already mentioned above), placed in order of BCS rankings:
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#8 Michigan State (11-1)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2)
#10 LSU (10-2)
#11 Boise State (10-1)
#12 Missouri (10-2)
Ironically, the result of the ACC and Big XII Championship Games will not affect these selections one little bit because of these teams, the choices are fairly obvious. If you run a BCS Bowl Game and you’re looking at that list of seven teams, which ones would be most likely to sell every ticket that you give to them? My guess would be Ohio State, Oklahoma, and LSU. However, since Auburn is most likely going to the title game, the Sugar Bowl would love to select an SEC team as an at-large bid and considering that it’s just a 10 hour drive from Fayetteville, Arkansas, to New Orleans I think we can safely assume that Arkansas will pack the house.
So, Missouri is out. Boise State is out (much to the old guard’s delight). LSU is out due to a head to head loss to Arkansas. Oklahoma is either going to get in via the automatic Big XII bid or they will not make it with a 10-3 record. Michigan State was a fantastic story this year but fell short of Ohio State if for no other reason, then the quality of their loss. The Spartans one loss came to an Iowa team that is now 7-5 while Ohio State’s only loss is to #5 Wisconsin. Also, it isn’t as likely that the Michigan State faithful will travel to the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl as well as the two teams above them.
That only leaves two more teams and those will be your last two at-large teams. To recap, barring some sort of terrible disaster this weekend at the hands of Oregon State and/or South Carolina, the BCS participants should be the following teams.
#1 Auburn (12-0)
#2 Oregon (11-0)
#3 TCU (12-0)
#4 Stanford (11-1)
#5 Wisconsin (11-1)
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2) or #13 Nebraska (10-2)
#15 Virginia Tech (10-2) or #21 Florida State (9-3)
Connecticut (7-4)
THE HEISMAN TROPHY
With any luck the elephant in the room just turned out to be some strange show on TV. While I wish that TCU was gearing up to play for the national title against Oregon, I would never wish for Cam Newton’s amazing season to be derailed by recruiting violations. If the story that was posted on espn.com yesterday is true and he had nothing to do with the pay-for-play deal, then I think he should be able to play and I think his father should be ashamed of himself. If it’s not true and Newton did know about it, then he just dodged a bullet and yet another instance of corruption slips through the NCAA cracks.
I’m not saying that NCAA football players should get paid millions of dollar but when this much money and pride is at stake, it’s easy to see the temptation for many of these players. They don’t always come from wealthy families and it’s easy to justify taking a few thousand dollars when your family is on welfare. The NCAA needs to do several things and at the top of that list is get rid of the illusion of the amateur athlete. In principle it’s a very nice concept but what do you say to the Universities getting rich off of the labor of amateur athletes? According to a study done, the University of Florida spent about $80 million on its football program in the four years that Tim Tebow was playing for them. According to that same report, the revenue of the football program over that same time was $280 million. While I understand that Tebow himself was not responsible for that $200 million profit (two SEC championships and two BCS National Championships had quite a bit to do with that), he certainly helped.
Is it fair that the NCAA makes obscene amounts of money and doesn’t even have to pay their workers that are most responsible for it? Not really. I know that the NCAA and university presidents will say that these young men are getting a world class education for free. While that may be true, is $10,000-30,000 a year enough to prevent 18-22 year old kids from being seduced by boosters and agents when very little (if any) of that money is disposable income? You would hope it is but history shows us that it isn’t.
What’s the solution? Adding stipends to scholarships. Maybe $5,000 per semester or per year or something along those lines. I’m not sure but something has to be done and at the top of that list is getting the NCAA to pull its head out of the sand.
UMM, BACK TO THE HEISMAN…
Ah yes, the trophy that I was originally going to talk about in that section. This is one of those years where the decision is easy. I almost wonder if the NCAA expedited their investigation to make things easier on the Heisman Trust (probably not) or the BCS (most definitely). Once they declared Cam Newton eligible and not in violation of NCAA rules, you could have started engraving his name on the trophy right then and there.
I may not be a huge Cam Newton fan, especially since plenty of Heisman winners managed to make it through their college careers without even being accused of something as bad as pay-for-play, but there is no question in my mind that he deserves the Heisman. If there were such a verbose award, he would also get the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision MVP Award. His season is littered with Heisman moments, culminating with his superb second half on the road against #11 Alabama (detractors of Newton will quickly point out that in the first half of that game, Newton was nearly invisible but then again, so was the entire Auburn team).
He ranked second in the nation in passer efficiency at 185.6 (Kellen Moore led at 188.0), throwing 24 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions while completing 67.9% of his passes. He also ranked 10th nationally with 1,336 yards rushing (leading the SEC) and 3rd nationally with 18 rushing touchdowns.
In my mind the only other viable candidate was Kellen Moore. His final numbers (188.0 rating, 3,269 yards on just 311 attempts, 71.1% completing percentage, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions) are gaudy but what really stood out to me was the fact that in his last three games, his overall rating dropped each time and his rating in each of those games was 180.9, 174.1, and 180.1, respectively. He had four games with a rating over 200 and his lowest of the season was 134.1 when he threw three touchdowns without an interception (basically on the road) against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season.
I don’t disagree with Cam Newton getting the Heisman and to be honest, if I had a vote, he’d be my winner. All I’m saying is that I’m hoping Kellen Moore doesn’t get overlooked the way that Boise State did this year.
Well, that’s about all for now. Later I’ll be weighing in after the BCS match-ups to provide predictions and analysis. Until then, get ready for a Saturday full of good football!
Once again we have started our annual dance to try to figure out the permutations that will allow certain teams to leapfrog certain other teams in the annual beauty pageant that the NCAA refers to as the BCS. This year though, thanks to a plucky Wolfpack, it’s a lot more straightforward and the cries of BCS opponents have become somewhat muted. Instead of arguing over who gets to play for the top prize, the arguments this year surround the much less contentious topic of who gets to play in the BCS bowls.
For instance, in the Big Ten, three teams have identical 11-1 (7-1) records, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State and as of this past Sunday, they are ranked 5th, 6th, and 8th, respectively, in the BCS. Under past Big Ten tiebreaking rules, they would have sent the team that was suffering the longest current Rose Bowl drought to Pasadena, which would have sent the Spartans to the parade of roses. However, currently, they simply use whoever is the highest ranked team in the BCS, which will more or less inevitably send the Badgers to the Rose Bowl. While I feel bad for Michigan State, who had a great season, I have a hard time arguing that Wisconsin doesn’t deserve to go given that for several weeks now, they have been the absolute best team in the Big Ten (though I believe that the football gods may be putting them up on a pedestal only to knock them down because of their three victories by scores of 70-23, 70-3, and 83-20).
As much as I am a fan of the underdogs, this simply wasn’t their season. For almost all of last year, I believed that TCU was a more worthy candidate than Boise State and that belief got thrown back in my face in the Fiesta Bowl in the form of a head to head loss to the Smurf Turf Broncos. After that game, I became a believer in Chris Peterson and Kellen Moore along with the other 19 starters they had returning but nobody who mattered seemed to jump on the bandwagon. They started the season 5th in the polls and seemed to be fighting an immense uphill battle, getting leapfrogged in the rankings four times by Oklahoma, Auburn, Oregon, and TCU. Despite winning a de facto road game against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season, they only gained ground but never moved up the rankings. After starting the season at #3, they moved up in the standings just twice and both occurrences were after a leapfrogging team that had pushed them down to #4 lost.
I’m not asking you to feel sorry for Boise State. They knew coming into this season that in order to play for the ultimate prize, they had to be perfect and in the end, they couldn’t do it, losing a heartbreaker to Nevada 34-31, missing two short field goals and getting dominated in the second half. Now all the focus shifts to TCU and unless the Gamecocks can beat Auburn, TCU will have to settle for the Rose Bowl and while that pales in comparison to the BCS National Championship Game, that’s one hell of a consolation prize. Trust me, I’m a fan of the Washington Huskies; I’d love to have my team playing in the Rose Bowl this year.
THE BOWLS
Right now the Bowl picture seems pretty clear but there is still plenty of room for chaos and that all starts Saturday in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. #1 Auburn will play #19 South Carolina in a rematch of one of the few games that Auburn struggled in this year. If the Tigers manage to lose, then TCU will undoubtedly move up to #2 and play Oregon for the national title. However, I do have to mention that Oregon plays Oregon State in the Civil War game and even though the Beavers are 5-6, you always have to take rivalry games seriously because anything can happen.
Barring disaster, Oregon and Auburn will play for all the marbles. TCU and Stanford will get into the BCS party via the “3-4 rule” saying that the 3rd and 4th ranked teams in the BCS are guaranteed BCS Bowl berths. Wisconsin looks all but certain to win the BCS tiebreakers in the Big Ten, which will leave Ohio State and Michigan State hoping for an at-large bid.
The Big XII Championship Game will be one of the more interesting games, pitting #9 Oklahoma against #13 Nebraska. Likewise, the ACC title game between #15 Virginia Tech and #21 Florida State will also be an interesting game as Virginia Tech attempts to finish their undefeated ACC season.
Which leaves the Big East. I never would have expected to write these words in all my life when talking about football… Connecticut controls their own destiny in the Big East. In that respect, it is one heck of a weird season. It is also easy to see why TCU will join the Big East which is quite simply the weakest conference with an automatic BCS bid. I’m very near willing to pencil in TCU for that berth for the next year or two but I digress.
That gives us a total of eight teams in the BCS; who will the last two be? According to BCS rules, the following teams are eligible for at-large bids (excluding those already mentioned above), placed in order of BCS rankings:
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#8 Michigan State (11-1)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2)
#10 LSU (10-2)
#11 Boise State (10-1)
#12 Missouri (10-2)
Ironically, the result of the ACC and Big XII Championship Games will not affect these selections one little bit because of these teams, the choices are fairly obvious. If you run a BCS Bowl Game and you’re looking at that list of seven teams, which ones would be most likely to sell every ticket that you give to them? My guess would be Ohio State, Oklahoma, and LSU. However, since Auburn is most likely going to the title game, the Sugar Bowl would love to select an SEC team as an at-large bid and considering that it’s just a 10 hour drive from Fayetteville, Arkansas, to New Orleans I think we can safely assume that Arkansas will pack the house.
So, Missouri is out. Boise State is out (much to the old guard’s delight). LSU is out due to a head to head loss to Arkansas. Oklahoma is either going to get in via the automatic Big XII bid or they will not make it with a 10-3 record. Michigan State was a fantastic story this year but fell short of Ohio State if for no other reason, then the quality of their loss. The Spartans one loss came to an Iowa team that is now 7-5 while Ohio State’s only loss is to #5 Wisconsin. Also, it isn’t as likely that the Michigan State faithful will travel to the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl as well as the two teams above them.
That only leaves two more teams and those will be your last two at-large teams. To recap, barring some sort of terrible disaster this weekend at the hands of Oregon State and/or South Carolina, the BCS participants should be the following teams.
#1 Auburn (12-0)
#2 Oregon (11-0)
#3 TCU (12-0)
#4 Stanford (11-1)
#5 Wisconsin (11-1)
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2) or #13 Nebraska (10-2)
#15 Virginia Tech (10-2) or #21 Florida State (9-3)
Connecticut (7-4)
THE HEISMAN TROPHY
With any luck the elephant in the room just turned out to be some strange show on TV. While I wish that TCU was gearing up to play for the national title against Oregon, I would never wish for Cam Newton’s amazing season to be derailed by recruiting violations. If the story that was posted on espn.com yesterday is true and he had nothing to do with the pay-for-play deal, then I think he should be able to play and I think his father should be ashamed of himself. If it’s not true and Newton did know about it, then he just dodged a bullet and yet another instance of corruption slips through the NCAA cracks.
I’m not saying that NCAA football players should get paid millions of dollar but when this much money and pride is at stake, it’s easy to see the temptation for many of these players. They don’t always come from wealthy families and it’s easy to justify taking a few thousand dollars when your family is on welfare. The NCAA needs to do several things and at the top of that list is get rid of the illusion of the amateur athlete. In principle it’s a very nice concept but what do you say to the Universities getting rich off of the labor of amateur athletes? According to a study done, the University of Florida spent about $80 million on its football program in the four years that Tim Tebow was playing for them. According to that same report, the revenue of the football program over that same time was $280 million. While I understand that Tebow himself was not responsible for that $200 million profit (two SEC championships and two BCS National Championships had quite a bit to do with that), he certainly helped.
Is it fair that the NCAA makes obscene amounts of money and doesn’t even have to pay their workers that are most responsible for it? Not really. I know that the NCAA and university presidents will say that these young men are getting a world class education for free. While that may be true, is $10,000-30,000 a year enough to prevent 18-22 year old kids from being seduced by boosters and agents when very little (if any) of that money is disposable income? You would hope it is but history shows us that it isn’t.
What’s the solution? Adding stipends to scholarships. Maybe $5,000 per semester or per year or something along those lines. I’m not sure but something has to be done and at the top of that list is getting the NCAA to pull its head out of the sand.
UMM, BACK TO THE HEISMAN…
Ah yes, the trophy that I was originally going to talk about in that section. This is one of those years where the decision is easy. I almost wonder if the NCAA expedited their investigation to make things easier on the Heisman Trust (probably not) or the BCS (most definitely). Once they declared Cam Newton eligible and not in violation of NCAA rules, you could have started engraving his name on the trophy right then and there.
I may not be a huge Cam Newton fan, especially since plenty of Heisman winners managed to make it through their college careers without even being accused of something as bad as pay-for-play, but there is no question in my mind that he deserves the Heisman. If there were such a verbose award, he would also get the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision MVP Award. His season is littered with Heisman moments, culminating with his superb second half on the road against #11 Alabama (detractors of Newton will quickly point out that in the first half of that game, Newton was nearly invisible but then again, so was the entire Auburn team).
He ranked second in the nation in passer efficiency at 185.6 (Kellen Moore led at 188.0), throwing 24 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions while completing 67.9% of his passes. He also ranked 10th nationally with 1,336 yards rushing (leading the SEC) and 3rd nationally with 18 rushing touchdowns.
In my mind the only other viable candidate was Kellen Moore. His final numbers (188.0 rating, 3,269 yards on just 311 attempts, 71.1% completing percentage, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions) are gaudy but what really stood out to me was the fact that in his last three games, his overall rating dropped each time and his rating in each of those games was 180.9, 174.1, and 180.1, respectively. He had four games with a rating over 200 and his lowest of the season was 134.1 when he threw three touchdowns without an interception (basically on the road) against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season.
I don’t disagree with Cam Newton getting the Heisman and to be honest, if I had a vote, he’d be my winner. All I’m saying is that I’m hoping Kellen Moore doesn’t get overlooked the way that Boise State did this year.
Well, that’s about all for now. Later I’ll be weighing in after the BCS match-ups to provide predictions and analysis. Until then, get ready for a Saturday full of good football!
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Memories of the Decade - College Football Edition
This decade started with Bobby Bowden coaching in his second of three straight appearances in the BCS National Championship Game and ended with Bowden spiking the Seminoles’ Spear into the turf at the Gator Bowl right before he coached the last game of his illustrious career. The past ten years have given us everything from old-fashioned (Ohio State old school football under Jim Tressel) to the new (spread offense under the direction of Urban Meyer). For the first time in BCS history, we saw a small school play in one of the biggest bowl games of the year and then later, we saw two of the four at-large choices come from the Mountain West and Western Athletic Conferences.
Reading through the series of articles on espn.com about the “everything” of the decade (player, coach program, game, etc.) I’ve decided to make a list of my favorite memories from the past ten years of college football to be followed by my memories of the decade from the National Football League and then Major League Baseball.
Before I begin, however, I must put forth a disclaimer. I was born and raised in northwestern Washington and my first memory of college football was watching the Huskies play in three straight Rose Bowls from 1991-1993 when I was just 6 years old. Ever since I have been a big fan of the Washington Huskies in specific and the Pac-10 in general.
Lastly, there isn’t really an order to these so try not to read too much into why one game was before another.
Now, on to the memories…
GAMES
September 19, 2009
Washington 16, #3 USC 13
The Huskies have a long and storied history which includes 656 wins, 15 conference titles, 20 consensus All-Americans, and 4 claimed national championships. They started the decade (more or less) with a 34-24 victory over Purdue in the Rose Bowl and that 2000-2001 season saw them finish 3rd in the polls. The program slowly slid downhill over the course of the decade, reaching rock bottom December 6th of 2008. They lost 48-7 to California to finish the season 0-12. In virtually every number, offensive, defensive, and special teams, they ranked lower than 100.
To open the 2009 season, they lost their fifteenth straight game to LSU 31-23 but they fought hard and it gave the team a lot of hope for the future of Huskies football. The next week, they broke the streak with a 42-23 win over Idaho and then they had a match-up with #3 USC in Seattle. For all of you Trojans fans out there, there are plenty of reasons why they were not as competitive in this game as they should have been. Their starting quarterback was out, several of their defensive backs were injured, and they were coming off of an emotional win over the Buckeyes in Columbus. Regardless of all of that, the Huskies got the ball back with 4:01 remaining in the game and Jake Locker took the Huskies 63 yards in 10 plays, culminating with Erik Folk kicking a 22 yard field goal with 3 seconds remaining. Huskies 16, Trojans 13.
Washington football is on its long way back.
January 5, 2005
#1 USC 55, #2 Oklahoma 19
In 2004 the Sooners were #2 from wire to wire and the Trojans were #1 from wire to wire and from the beginning of the season, they seemed destined to collide in Miami. Both teams had come close to a BCS championship the year before when USC had been left out by the BCS formula and Oklahoma had been shut down by Nick Saban’s defense in the title game. The game featured two former Heisman trophy winners (quarterbacks Jason White for OU and Matt Leinart for USC) and four of the five Heisman finalists (Leinart, White, OU running back Adrian Peterson, and USC running back Reggie Bush).
Everyone knew that it was going to be one of the all-time great games featuring some of the best players in the history of college football and two of the better teams in college football history. Instead, it was a complete and utter beat down. It was 38-10 at halftime and if it wasn’t for 9 late points by the Sooners in garbage time, the final score might have been 55-10. The reason that this game stuck out to me is because it was a very similar Oklahoma team to the year before and a very similar USC team to the year before when many thought the Trojans should have replaced the Sooners in the Sugar Bowl against LSU. It cemented USC’s place as one of the best teams of the decade, if not ever.
January 4, 2006
#2 Texas 41, #1 USC 38
Since the Associated Press started awarding a national championship in 1936, there have been ten instances where a team has won back-to-back national championships. They are:
Minnesota 1940-1941
Army 1944-1945
Notre Dame 1946-1947
Oklahoma 1955-1956
Alabama 1964-1965
Nebraska 1970-1971
Oklahoma 1974-1975
Alabama 1978-1979
Nebraska 1994-1995
USC 2003-2004
Not one time, however, not once, has a team won three straight AP National Championships. When USC played in the Rose Bowl against Texas, they had a chance to win their 35th straight game and their third straight AP National Title. The former is important because even with several players departing to the NFL after the season, it would have put them within range of Oklahoma’s record winning streak (47 games).
On the other side, the Longhorns came into the game having won 19 straight games, including a thrilling 38-37 win over Michigan in the Rose Bowl the year before. They were definitely the underdogs and one of the storylines was whether or not they would be able to get up to the level they needed to play at to beat USC after having won the Big 12 Championship, finally overcoming the stranglehold that Oklahoma had over the South Division in the first half of the decade.
The result was an instant classic that propelled Vince Young into the NFL on a video game type game (267 passing yards, 200 rushing yards) but I also remember this game for another reason. This game directly led to me despising (and no, I’m not understating that) the prevent defense. I don’t mean to undermine Young’s unbelievable comeback in this game but he could not have done it without the help of the USC defense. With the score 38-26 and 6:42 remaining in the game, it almost seemed as if the Trojans thought the game was over and they were already assured of their place in history. They dropped back into deep coverage and allowed the Longhorns to move down the field and score in just 2:39 to make the score 38-33. Then, after a failed 4th down conversion, the Longhorns again went on to a touchdown, taking just 1:50 to score the winning touchdown.
Countless times in college football and in the NFL, teams sit on a lead and drop players back in coverage, deathly afraid of giving up a big touchdown pass to allow the trailing team to get back in the game. The problem is that it allows the trailing team to put a drive together and get chunks of yards with relatively little time coming off the clock, allowing that team to get into a rhythm and become more efficient on offense. Then, when the leading team actually needs to come up and make a key stop, they can’t. Now, this doesn’t always work out that well but when the two teams are evenly matched, you absolutely cannot give the other team a chance to get some momentum together.
January 3, 2003
#2 Ohio State 31, #1 Miami 24 (2 O.T.)
Coming into the Fiesta Bowl, the Miami Hurricanes had won 34 consecutive games, including the previous year’s national championship. En route to the Fiesta Bowl, the Hurricanes played just two games that were decided by one possession (28-27 over #9 Florida State and 28-21 over Pittsburgh). On the other side, the Buckeyes won 6 of their 13 games by 7 or fewer points.
The game was what a championship game should be. It was close and hard fought and given the two teams, the defensive field-position style of play favored Ohio State.
The turning point of the game was early in the fourth quarter with the Buckeyes leading 17-14. Willis McGahee, who had run for 1,753 yards and 28 touchdowns, ran right and was taken down and out by Ohio State safety Will Allen. Even though the tackle was a clean play, Allen’s helmet hitting right on the side of McGahee’s knee tore three ligaments and changed the question about McGahee’s future from where will he be drafted in the top 10 to will he be drafted at all. Even though Ohio State was leading at the time, there was a big drop-off from McGahee to backup Jarrett Payton. It limited the effectiveness of the Miami offense and played into the hands of the outstanding Ohio State defense.
Still, the game went to overtime and in the second overtime, freshman Maurice Clarett (before he failed to get into the NFL and then was sent to prison for carrying an arsenal in the back of his vehicle) capped off a lackluster day with a 5 yard touchdown run to give the Buckeyes the lead 31-24. The Ohio State defense held and won the BCS National Championship.
First of all, this was a great game and a lot of fun to watch. Secondly, it showed that, at least in college, a good defense can beat any offense. Lastly, it signified the emphatic arrival of one of my favorite coaches in all of football, college or pro, Jim Tressel…
…and of course, his sweater vest.
January 1, 2007
#8 Boise State 43, #10 Oklahoma 42 (OT)
Following a 12-0 regular season for Boise State, they became just the second team not from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, SEC, or Pac-10 to play in a BCS Bowl (after Utah in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl). They were up against one of the so called “blue-bloods” of college football, the Oklahoma Sooners. First of all, a quick side note… This was not the Sooners juggernaut of 2003 or 2004 that played for the national title both years but it was still a 10-2 team that won the Big 12 and had Adrian Peterson back from his broken collarbone of earlier that year.
The big question was whether or not a team like Boise State could hang with a team like Oklahoma but the Broncos put that discussion to rest in the first half. Boise State quarterback Jared Zabransky threw touchdown passes of 49 and 32 yards and Ian Johnson ran for a 7 yard score to give the Broncos a 21-10 halftime lead. Midway through the third quarter Marty Tadman picked off a Paul Thompson pass and returned it 27 yards for another touchdown and a 28-10 Boise State lead.
One aspect of this game that many people overlook is the fact that after taking that 18 point lead, the Broncos got a little bigheaded and allowed the Sooners to get back into the game. Oklahoma slowly chipped away at the lead until they drew even with a 5 yard touchdown pass and then a two point conversion (after two penalties) to make the score 28-28 with 1:26 remaining. Completing the comeback was Marcus Walker who intercepted Zabransky on the first play after the touchdown by Boise state and took it 34 yards for a touchdown and a 35-28 lead.
That is where this game ceased to be just another game and entered its name into the discussion for the best games in college football history. After a pass completion, a sack, and then two incompletions, Boise State faced a 4th and 18 from midfield. Jared Zabransky, Drisan James, and Jerard Robb then executed the perfect hook and ladder play. James ran a hook route and caught the pass from Zabransky about 15 yards downfield. He then took a couple steps towards the middle of the field to draw the defense and then threw a lateral to Robb, who was coming across from the far side of the field. Robb outran the Oklahoma secondary for a touchdown that tied the game and sent it to overtime.
It became clear that Boise State’s time was running out on the first play of overtime when Adrian Peterson took the handoff and went 25 yards virtually untouched for a touchdown and a 42-35 lead. On the ensuing Boise State drive, they faced a 4th and 2 from the Oklahoma 5 yard line when Zabransky went in motion and the snap went to backup wide receiver Vinny Perretta. Instead of running behind the three receivers, he rolled right and threw a touchdown pass to draw them within 1 point, 42-41. Instead of having his tired defense faced the Sooners offense again; Chris Peterson decided to go for it. The result was a Statue of Liberty fake and handoff to Ian Johnson who went into the endzone untouched for a 43-42 victory.
Do I need to tell you why I still remember this game?
DYNASTIES
This decade was marked by one dynasty rolling into another which rolled into another. From 2000-2003, the Miami Hurricanes went 46-4, won all 4 Big East titles, won one national championship, and played for another and on top of that, they added a 34 game winning streak and a 39 game regular season winning streak. I don’t remember as much about this dynasty as the other two that will be mentioned later but if you want to know how good these teams were, just look at who went from one of those teams to the NFL. The other thing that made this team noteworthy in my mind is that they didn’t possess the brash cockiness that previous and subsequent Miami teams were known for. They were the best team in the country; they knew it, you knew it, and there was nothing you could do about it.
In the 10 years from 2000-2009, the Trojans of USC went 102-26 and if you take out their seasons in 2000 (5-7), 2001 (6-6), and 2009 (9-4), they went 82-9 over a 7 year stretch in which they won the Pac-10 title every year. However, for this discussion, we’ll focus on their run near the top of the college football landscape. From 2003-2005, they went 37-2, winning the AP national championship in 2003 and 2004 and then the BCS national championship in 2004. Finally, in 2005, they were 12-0 and were prevented from making even more history by Vince Young and Texas (see above). Still the 2004 team is widely considered to be one of the best single season teams of all time and their roster included 53 players that would go on to play in the NFL.
CONTROVERSIES
There have been many controversies over the brief 12 year history of the BCS but for the purposes of brevity (something I occasionally struggle with) I’m just going to highlight two of them.
In 2003, USC finished the season 11-1, LSU finished 11-1, and Oklahoma finished 12-0. While LSU defeated #5 Georgia 34-13 in the SEC Championship Game, Oklahoma forgot to show up for the Big 12 title game and got blown out by Kansas State 35-7. Despite being ranked #1 in both the Coach’s Poll and the AP Poll, USC was ranked #3 in the BCS and went to the Rose Bowl against Michigan.
USC defeated Michigan 28-14 in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score while LSU defeated Oklahoma 21-14 in a game where the Sooners didn’t appear to belong on the same field as the Tigers.
The other big controversy happened the next year when 5 teams finished the regular season undefeated (USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah, and Boise State). While there wasn’t a ton of noise calling for Utah or Boise State to be in the National Championship Game, Auburn certainly felt they deserved to be there, having gone 12-0 in the SEC. While Auburn struggled to dispatch Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl, USC dominated Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl 55-19, which brought many questions as to whether or not the BCS had gotten it right.
My personal take is that the BCS wasn’t completely wrong either year. In 2003, given that LSU and USC did not play each other, it was perfect for them to share the national championship. The only way it could have been better is if they had played for the title. The following year, I’m not at all convinced that there was anyone who could have beaten USC in that game so it would have been for the honor of being in the national title game and the opportunity to get pasted by USC.
To sum up, it’s been a great decade in college football that has seen relative nobody’s on the national stage stand up and demand attention from the establishment. It has also seen traditional powers struggle at times proving that everybody must endure rebuilding years in a sport where athletes are staying at most 4 years, and more commonly 3 years. The BCS has had more than its share of detractors but it’s hard to say that it hasn’t created its share of thrilling games.
Until next September, we’ll have to dream about the decade that was and the decade that will be in college football.
Reading through the series of articles on espn.com about the “everything” of the decade (player, coach program, game, etc.) I’ve decided to make a list of my favorite memories from the past ten years of college football to be followed by my memories of the decade from the National Football League and then Major League Baseball.
Before I begin, however, I must put forth a disclaimer. I was born and raised in northwestern Washington and my first memory of college football was watching the Huskies play in three straight Rose Bowls from 1991-1993 when I was just 6 years old. Ever since I have been a big fan of the Washington Huskies in specific and the Pac-10 in general.
Lastly, there isn’t really an order to these so try not to read too much into why one game was before another.
Now, on to the memories…
GAMES
September 19, 2009
Washington 16, #3 USC 13
The Huskies have a long and storied history which includes 656 wins, 15 conference titles, 20 consensus All-Americans, and 4 claimed national championships. They started the decade (more or less) with a 34-24 victory over Purdue in the Rose Bowl and that 2000-2001 season saw them finish 3rd in the polls. The program slowly slid downhill over the course of the decade, reaching rock bottom December 6th of 2008. They lost 48-7 to California to finish the season 0-12. In virtually every number, offensive, defensive, and special teams, they ranked lower than 100.
To open the 2009 season, they lost their fifteenth straight game to LSU 31-23 but they fought hard and it gave the team a lot of hope for the future of Huskies football. The next week, they broke the streak with a 42-23 win over Idaho and then they had a match-up with #3 USC in Seattle. For all of you Trojans fans out there, there are plenty of reasons why they were not as competitive in this game as they should have been. Their starting quarterback was out, several of their defensive backs were injured, and they were coming off of an emotional win over the Buckeyes in Columbus. Regardless of all of that, the Huskies got the ball back with 4:01 remaining in the game and Jake Locker took the Huskies 63 yards in 10 plays, culminating with Erik Folk kicking a 22 yard field goal with 3 seconds remaining. Huskies 16, Trojans 13.
Washington football is on its long way back.
January 5, 2005
#1 USC 55, #2 Oklahoma 19
In 2004 the Sooners were #2 from wire to wire and the Trojans were #1 from wire to wire and from the beginning of the season, they seemed destined to collide in Miami. Both teams had come close to a BCS championship the year before when USC had been left out by the BCS formula and Oklahoma had been shut down by Nick Saban’s defense in the title game. The game featured two former Heisman trophy winners (quarterbacks Jason White for OU and Matt Leinart for USC) and four of the five Heisman finalists (Leinart, White, OU running back Adrian Peterson, and USC running back Reggie Bush).
Everyone knew that it was going to be one of the all-time great games featuring some of the best players in the history of college football and two of the better teams in college football history. Instead, it was a complete and utter beat down. It was 38-10 at halftime and if it wasn’t for 9 late points by the Sooners in garbage time, the final score might have been 55-10. The reason that this game stuck out to me is because it was a very similar Oklahoma team to the year before and a very similar USC team to the year before when many thought the Trojans should have replaced the Sooners in the Sugar Bowl against LSU. It cemented USC’s place as one of the best teams of the decade, if not ever.
January 4, 2006
#2 Texas 41, #1 USC 38
Since the Associated Press started awarding a national championship in 1936, there have been ten instances where a team has won back-to-back national championships. They are:
Minnesota 1940-1941
Army 1944-1945
Notre Dame 1946-1947
Oklahoma 1955-1956
Alabama 1964-1965
Nebraska 1970-1971
Oklahoma 1974-1975
Alabama 1978-1979
Nebraska 1994-1995
USC 2003-2004
Not one time, however, not once, has a team won three straight AP National Championships. When USC played in the Rose Bowl against Texas, they had a chance to win their 35th straight game and their third straight AP National Title. The former is important because even with several players departing to the NFL after the season, it would have put them within range of Oklahoma’s record winning streak (47 games).
On the other side, the Longhorns came into the game having won 19 straight games, including a thrilling 38-37 win over Michigan in the Rose Bowl the year before. They were definitely the underdogs and one of the storylines was whether or not they would be able to get up to the level they needed to play at to beat USC after having won the Big 12 Championship, finally overcoming the stranglehold that Oklahoma had over the South Division in the first half of the decade.
The result was an instant classic that propelled Vince Young into the NFL on a video game type game (267 passing yards, 200 rushing yards) but I also remember this game for another reason. This game directly led to me despising (and no, I’m not understating that) the prevent defense. I don’t mean to undermine Young’s unbelievable comeback in this game but he could not have done it without the help of the USC defense. With the score 38-26 and 6:42 remaining in the game, it almost seemed as if the Trojans thought the game was over and they were already assured of their place in history. They dropped back into deep coverage and allowed the Longhorns to move down the field and score in just 2:39 to make the score 38-33. Then, after a failed 4th down conversion, the Longhorns again went on to a touchdown, taking just 1:50 to score the winning touchdown.
Countless times in college football and in the NFL, teams sit on a lead and drop players back in coverage, deathly afraid of giving up a big touchdown pass to allow the trailing team to get back in the game. The problem is that it allows the trailing team to put a drive together and get chunks of yards with relatively little time coming off the clock, allowing that team to get into a rhythm and become more efficient on offense. Then, when the leading team actually needs to come up and make a key stop, they can’t. Now, this doesn’t always work out that well but when the two teams are evenly matched, you absolutely cannot give the other team a chance to get some momentum together.
January 3, 2003
#2 Ohio State 31, #1 Miami 24 (2 O.T.)
Coming into the Fiesta Bowl, the Miami Hurricanes had won 34 consecutive games, including the previous year’s national championship. En route to the Fiesta Bowl, the Hurricanes played just two games that were decided by one possession (28-27 over #9 Florida State and 28-21 over Pittsburgh). On the other side, the Buckeyes won 6 of their 13 games by 7 or fewer points.
The game was what a championship game should be. It was close and hard fought and given the two teams, the defensive field-position style of play favored Ohio State.
The turning point of the game was early in the fourth quarter with the Buckeyes leading 17-14. Willis McGahee, who had run for 1,753 yards and 28 touchdowns, ran right and was taken down and out by Ohio State safety Will Allen. Even though the tackle was a clean play, Allen’s helmet hitting right on the side of McGahee’s knee tore three ligaments and changed the question about McGahee’s future from where will he be drafted in the top 10 to will he be drafted at all. Even though Ohio State was leading at the time, there was a big drop-off from McGahee to backup Jarrett Payton. It limited the effectiveness of the Miami offense and played into the hands of the outstanding Ohio State defense.
Still, the game went to overtime and in the second overtime, freshman Maurice Clarett (before he failed to get into the NFL and then was sent to prison for carrying an arsenal in the back of his vehicle) capped off a lackluster day with a 5 yard touchdown run to give the Buckeyes the lead 31-24. The Ohio State defense held and won the BCS National Championship.
First of all, this was a great game and a lot of fun to watch. Secondly, it showed that, at least in college, a good defense can beat any offense. Lastly, it signified the emphatic arrival of one of my favorite coaches in all of football, college or pro, Jim Tressel…
…and of course, his sweater vest.
January 1, 2007
#8 Boise State 43, #10 Oklahoma 42 (OT)
Following a 12-0 regular season for Boise State, they became just the second team not from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, SEC, or Pac-10 to play in a BCS Bowl (after Utah in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl). They were up against one of the so called “blue-bloods” of college football, the Oklahoma Sooners. First of all, a quick side note… This was not the Sooners juggernaut of 2003 or 2004 that played for the national title both years but it was still a 10-2 team that won the Big 12 and had Adrian Peterson back from his broken collarbone of earlier that year.
The big question was whether or not a team like Boise State could hang with a team like Oklahoma but the Broncos put that discussion to rest in the first half. Boise State quarterback Jared Zabransky threw touchdown passes of 49 and 32 yards and Ian Johnson ran for a 7 yard score to give the Broncos a 21-10 halftime lead. Midway through the third quarter Marty Tadman picked off a Paul Thompson pass and returned it 27 yards for another touchdown and a 28-10 Boise State lead.
One aspect of this game that many people overlook is the fact that after taking that 18 point lead, the Broncos got a little bigheaded and allowed the Sooners to get back into the game. Oklahoma slowly chipped away at the lead until they drew even with a 5 yard touchdown pass and then a two point conversion (after two penalties) to make the score 28-28 with 1:26 remaining. Completing the comeback was Marcus Walker who intercepted Zabransky on the first play after the touchdown by Boise state and took it 34 yards for a touchdown and a 35-28 lead.
That is where this game ceased to be just another game and entered its name into the discussion for the best games in college football history. After a pass completion, a sack, and then two incompletions, Boise State faced a 4th and 18 from midfield. Jared Zabransky, Drisan James, and Jerard Robb then executed the perfect hook and ladder play. James ran a hook route and caught the pass from Zabransky about 15 yards downfield. He then took a couple steps towards the middle of the field to draw the defense and then threw a lateral to Robb, who was coming across from the far side of the field. Robb outran the Oklahoma secondary for a touchdown that tied the game and sent it to overtime.
It became clear that Boise State’s time was running out on the first play of overtime when Adrian Peterson took the handoff and went 25 yards virtually untouched for a touchdown and a 42-35 lead. On the ensuing Boise State drive, they faced a 4th and 2 from the Oklahoma 5 yard line when Zabransky went in motion and the snap went to backup wide receiver Vinny Perretta. Instead of running behind the three receivers, he rolled right and threw a touchdown pass to draw them within 1 point, 42-41. Instead of having his tired defense faced the Sooners offense again; Chris Peterson decided to go for it. The result was a Statue of Liberty fake and handoff to Ian Johnson who went into the endzone untouched for a 43-42 victory.
Do I need to tell you why I still remember this game?
DYNASTIES
This decade was marked by one dynasty rolling into another which rolled into another. From 2000-2003, the Miami Hurricanes went 46-4, won all 4 Big East titles, won one national championship, and played for another and on top of that, they added a 34 game winning streak and a 39 game regular season winning streak. I don’t remember as much about this dynasty as the other two that will be mentioned later but if you want to know how good these teams were, just look at who went from one of those teams to the NFL. The other thing that made this team noteworthy in my mind is that they didn’t possess the brash cockiness that previous and subsequent Miami teams were known for. They were the best team in the country; they knew it, you knew it, and there was nothing you could do about it.
In the 10 years from 2000-2009, the Trojans of USC went 102-26 and if you take out their seasons in 2000 (5-7), 2001 (6-6), and 2009 (9-4), they went 82-9 over a 7 year stretch in which they won the Pac-10 title every year. However, for this discussion, we’ll focus on their run near the top of the college football landscape. From 2003-2005, they went 37-2, winning the AP national championship in 2003 and 2004 and then the BCS national championship in 2004. Finally, in 2005, they were 12-0 and were prevented from making even more history by Vince Young and Texas (see above). Still the 2004 team is widely considered to be one of the best single season teams of all time and their roster included 53 players that would go on to play in the NFL.
CONTROVERSIES
There have been many controversies over the brief 12 year history of the BCS but for the purposes of brevity (something I occasionally struggle with) I’m just going to highlight two of them.
In 2003, USC finished the season 11-1, LSU finished 11-1, and Oklahoma finished 12-0. While LSU defeated #5 Georgia 34-13 in the SEC Championship Game, Oklahoma forgot to show up for the Big 12 title game and got blown out by Kansas State 35-7. Despite being ranked #1 in both the Coach’s Poll and the AP Poll, USC was ranked #3 in the BCS and went to the Rose Bowl against Michigan.
USC defeated Michigan 28-14 in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score while LSU defeated Oklahoma 21-14 in a game where the Sooners didn’t appear to belong on the same field as the Tigers.
The other big controversy happened the next year when 5 teams finished the regular season undefeated (USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah, and Boise State). While there wasn’t a ton of noise calling for Utah or Boise State to be in the National Championship Game, Auburn certainly felt they deserved to be there, having gone 12-0 in the SEC. While Auburn struggled to dispatch Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl, USC dominated Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl 55-19, which brought many questions as to whether or not the BCS had gotten it right.
My personal take is that the BCS wasn’t completely wrong either year. In 2003, given that LSU and USC did not play each other, it was perfect for them to share the national championship. The only way it could have been better is if they had played for the title. The following year, I’m not at all convinced that there was anyone who could have beaten USC in that game so it would have been for the honor of being in the national title game and the opportunity to get pasted by USC.
To sum up, it’s been a great decade in college football that has seen relative nobody’s on the national stage stand up and demand attention from the establishment. It has also seen traditional powers struggle at times proving that everybody must endure rebuilding years in a sport where athletes are staying at most 4 years, and more commonly 3 years. The BCS has had more than its share of detractors but it’s hard to say that it hasn’t created its share of thrilling games.
Until next September, we’ll have to dream about the decade that was and the decade that will be in college football.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Winners and Losers of BCS '10
The BCS field is set and the countdown has begun until January 7th, when Alabama and Texas will meet to decide the champion for the 2009 season. With the regular season over and the bowl season to come, it is time to look back and determine the winners and the losers from the season.
First, the winners.
WINNERS
Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences
The first “winners” are the little guys. For the first time in the 12 year history of the BCS, two teams from outside the AQ (automatic qualifying) conferences will play in a BCS bowl and bring a $12-15 million paycheck back to their conferences. Both Boise State and TCU benefited from the fact that perennial powers Oklahoma and USC both had down years at the same time. Had either of those schools performed to their 2008 level, one of the two, in all likelihood Boise State, would have been left out of the BCS party.
The SEC
For the second consecutive year, the SEC Championship Game was essentially a national semifinal game with the winner heading to the BCS National Championship Game. Last year it was #3 Florida beating #1 Alabama 31-20 and then winning the national title and this year, #2 Alabama manhandles #1 Florida 32-13 and will be playing for the national title. There is still the perception that while the rest of the SEC may be down and not playing its best football of the past decade, the conference is still loaded at the top. On top of that, when you take into account the incredible depth of young talent that Alabama has, the country may have traded one SEC juggernaut (Florida) for another.
The Fiesta Bowl
For the first time in the BCS era, two undefeated teams will square off in a game that will not determine the national champion. The Fiesta Bowl will feature #4 TCU (12-0) against #6 Boise State (13-0). We can only hope that the game lives up to their bowl meeting last year, one in which TCU pulled out a 17-16 victory.
Now, the flip side of the coin…
LOSERS
The Big XII
Coming into this year the storylines surrounding the Big XII were even better than those in the SEC. Two Heisman Trophy finalists (and one winner), the infamous tie-breaker situation last year, and two teams loaded and ready to compete for the division, the conference, and the crystal football. All of those expectations came crashing back down to earth in the first game of Oklahoma’s season, when they not only lost to BYU, but also lost Heisman winning quarterback Sam Bradford to a shoulder injury. He attempted to come back later in the season but played little before re-aggravating the injury and then being lost for the season, not to return to Norman, Oklahoma.
It’s hard to call a conference a loser when one of its teams is playing for the national title but compared to 2008, this season has been a disappointing one outside of Austin, Texas. After Oklahoma’s loss to BYU, it’s been a longshot for the Big XII to get two BCS berths. Towards the end of the season, it looked decent for Oklahoma State, but losing to the Sooners 27-0 in the regular season finale ended any of those thoughts. Last year, all people could talk about was which conference was better between the Big XII and the SEC and for most people, it came down to where you were from. This year it hasn’t been close and with the departure of Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, the Big XII will need to reload to be relevant in that conversation again.
The Pac-10
The SEC may have been the best conference at the top but there is no question in my mind which conference was the best from top to bottom. Only one team lost fewer than 4 games (conference champion Oregon, at 10-2) but consider this. The lowest ranked strength of schedule in the Pac-10 was Arizona State, whose schedule was ranked 24th by Jeff Sagarin. Conference champion Oregon’s schedule was rated as the 4th toughest in the nation, easily the most difficult of the 10 BCS Bowl participants. This is mainly due to two things; tough out-of-conference scheduling and a tough conference. Put another way, below are the 8 conferences that will be participating in BCS bowls and their three toughest schedules this year according to Jeff Sagarin with their national ranks.
ACC – Florida State (3), Virginia (6), Virginia Tech (11)
Big East – West Virginia (33), Connecticut (36), Syracuse (39)
Big Ten – Minnesota (30), Illinois (38), Purdue (46)
Big XII – Oklahoma (31), Colorado (32), Baylor 34)
Mountain West – New Mexico (55), Wyoming (57), Colorado State (64)
Pac-10 – Washington State (1), Washington (2), Oregon (4)
SEC – Georgia (5), South Carolina (7), Mississippi State (8)
WAC – San Jose State (54), Utah State (65), Louisiana Tech (72)
How does this make the Pac-10 losers? Top heavy conferences produce undefeated records and send teams to the BCS bowls and maybe even the national title game. While a Rose Bowl bid goes to a very deserving Oregon team, there has never been any discussion of a second Pac-10 team in the BCS because they beat each other up in conference play. Only one team had fewer than 3 conference losses this year in the Pac-10. Last year, there were three Big XII teams with one loss and both last year and this year, two SEC teams finished their regular seasons undefeated. This helps because the Ducks will be favored in the Rose Bowl. This hurts because they’re the only ones playing the BCS.
Lastly, there in one winner and one loser that are so closely linked that they have to be separate from the rest of this discussion.
Automatic Qualifying Conferences (winner) and Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences (loser)
Now, those of you who have been paying attention should have noticed that I’m sitting here saying that the Non-AQ conferences were both winners and losers. No, that’s not a typo, they were. Yes, they got two teams in. Yes, they had two teams beat up on inferior opponents; finish undefeated, and nearly put one in the National Championship Game. How can they also be losers? The Fiesta Bowl took them both. The Non-AQ conferences are on a very long quest for respect right now and they have not yet achieved their end goal. They took a big step forward last year when Utah raced out to a 21-0 lead and coasted to a 31-17 win over an Alabama team that was in the top 5 for most of the year and was considered a leading contender for the national title. This year, TCU and Boise State have both lost the opportunity Utah had last year because they play each other.
What the Non-AQ conferences needed was a pair of match-ups like Utah had last year. A perfect scenario would have been TCU vs. Texas (if they had lost the Big XII title game) and Boise State against Florida. If this scenario had played out and both had won, the case of the AQ conferences to keep the format the way it is would have been seriously weakened. As it is, no matter who wins, they can claim a share of the national title all they want and nobody will listen. TCU played the 84th hardest schedule and Boise State played the 98th toughest schedule. Any team worth its salt should go undefeated given those schedules. Even with a big win in the Fiesta Bowl, their resume won’t even compare with Cincinnati’s (assuming a Bearcats win) given their conference and their strength of schedule.
Both Boise State and TCU needed a signature victory upon which to build next year. If either of these teams had beaten #5 Florida in, say, the Sugar Bowl, I have little doubt they would have been ranked in the top ten preseason in 2010, poised for a run towards a national championship. The Fiesta Bowl prevented any of that from coming to pass.
The BCS bowls this year should be good, specifically the Fiesta Bowl and the National Championship game. There are many winners and losers but in my opinion, the positive aspects of this year’s BCS selections far outweigh the negatives.
Let the countdown begin!
Only 26 days left…
First, the winners.
WINNERS
Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences
The first “winners” are the little guys. For the first time in the 12 year history of the BCS, two teams from outside the AQ (automatic qualifying) conferences will play in a BCS bowl and bring a $12-15 million paycheck back to their conferences. Both Boise State and TCU benefited from the fact that perennial powers Oklahoma and USC both had down years at the same time. Had either of those schools performed to their 2008 level, one of the two, in all likelihood Boise State, would have been left out of the BCS party.
The SEC
For the second consecutive year, the SEC Championship Game was essentially a national semifinal game with the winner heading to the BCS National Championship Game. Last year it was #3 Florida beating #1 Alabama 31-20 and then winning the national title and this year, #2 Alabama manhandles #1 Florida 32-13 and will be playing for the national title. There is still the perception that while the rest of the SEC may be down and not playing its best football of the past decade, the conference is still loaded at the top. On top of that, when you take into account the incredible depth of young talent that Alabama has, the country may have traded one SEC juggernaut (Florida) for another.
The Fiesta Bowl
For the first time in the BCS era, two undefeated teams will square off in a game that will not determine the national champion. The Fiesta Bowl will feature #4 TCU (12-0) against #6 Boise State (13-0). We can only hope that the game lives up to their bowl meeting last year, one in which TCU pulled out a 17-16 victory.
Now, the flip side of the coin…
LOSERS
The Big XII
Coming into this year the storylines surrounding the Big XII were even better than those in the SEC. Two Heisman Trophy finalists (and one winner), the infamous tie-breaker situation last year, and two teams loaded and ready to compete for the division, the conference, and the crystal football. All of those expectations came crashing back down to earth in the first game of Oklahoma’s season, when they not only lost to BYU, but also lost Heisman winning quarterback Sam Bradford to a shoulder injury. He attempted to come back later in the season but played little before re-aggravating the injury and then being lost for the season, not to return to Norman, Oklahoma.
It’s hard to call a conference a loser when one of its teams is playing for the national title but compared to 2008, this season has been a disappointing one outside of Austin, Texas. After Oklahoma’s loss to BYU, it’s been a longshot for the Big XII to get two BCS berths. Towards the end of the season, it looked decent for Oklahoma State, but losing to the Sooners 27-0 in the regular season finale ended any of those thoughts. Last year, all people could talk about was which conference was better between the Big XII and the SEC and for most people, it came down to where you were from. This year it hasn’t been close and with the departure of Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, the Big XII will need to reload to be relevant in that conversation again.
The Pac-10
The SEC may have been the best conference at the top but there is no question in my mind which conference was the best from top to bottom. Only one team lost fewer than 4 games (conference champion Oregon, at 10-2) but consider this. The lowest ranked strength of schedule in the Pac-10 was Arizona State, whose schedule was ranked 24th by Jeff Sagarin. Conference champion Oregon’s schedule was rated as the 4th toughest in the nation, easily the most difficult of the 10 BCS Bowl participants. This is mainly due to two things; tough out-of-conference scheduling and a tough conference. Put another way, below are the 8 conferences that will be participating in BCS bowls and their three toughest schedules this year according to Jeff Sagarin with their national ranks.
ACC – Florida State (3), Virginia (6), Virginia Tech (11)
Big East – West Virginia (33), Connecticut (36), Syracuse (39)
Big Ten – Minnesota (30), Illinois (38), Purdue (46)
Big XII – Oklahoma (31), Colorado (32), Baylor 34)
Mountain West – New Mexico (55), Wyoming (57), Colorado State (64)
Pac-10 – Washington State (1), Washington (2), Oregon (4)
SEC – Georgia (5), South Carolina (7), Mississippi State (8)
WAC – San Jose State (54), Utah State (65), Louisiana Tech (72)
How does this make the Pac-10 losers? Top heavy conferences produce undefeated records and send teams to the BCS bowls and maybe even the national title game. While a Rose Bowl bid goes to a very deserving Oregon team, there has never been any discussion of a second Pac-10 team in the BCS because they beat each other up in conference play. Only one team had fewer than 3 conference losses this year in the Pac-10. Last year, there were three Big XII teams with one loss and both last year and this year, two SEC teams finished their regular seasons undefeated. This helps because the Ducks will be favored in the Rose Bowl. This hurts because they’re the only ones playing the BCS.
Lastly, there in one winner and one loser that are so closely linked that they have to be separate from the rest of this discussion.
Automatic Qualifying Conferences (winner) and Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences (loser)
Now, those of you who have been paying attention should have noticed that I’m sitting here saying that the Non-AQ conferences were both winners and losers. No, that’s not a typo, they were. Yes, they got two teams in. Yes, they had two teams beat up on inferior opponents; finish undefeated, and nearly put one in the National Championship Game. How can they also be losers? The Fiesta Bowl took them both. The Non-AQ conferences are on a very long quest for respect right now and they have not yet achieved their end goal. They took a big step forward last year when Utah raced out to a 21-0 lead and coasted to a 31-17 win over an Alabama team that was in the top 5 for most of the year and was considered a leading contender for the national title. This year, TCU and Boise State have both lost the opportunity Utah had last year because they play each other.
What the Non-AQ conferences needed was a pair of match-ups like Utah had last year. A perfect scenario would have been TCU vs. Texas (if they had lost the Big XII title game) and Boise State against Florida. If this scenario had played out and both had won, the case of the AQ conferences to keep the format the way it is would have been seriously weakened. As it is, no matter who wins, they can claim a share of the national title all they want and nobody will listen. TCU played the 84th hardest schedule and Boise State played the 98th toughest schedule. Any team worth its salt should go undefeated given those schedules. Even with a big win in the Fiesta Bowl, their resume won’t even compare with Cincinnati’s (assuming a Bearcats win) given their conference and their strength of schedule.
Both Boise State and TCU needed a signature victory upon which to build next year. If either of these teams had beaten #5 Florida in, say, the Sugar Bowl, I have little doubt they would have been ranked in the top ten preseason in 2010, poised for a run towards a national championship. The Fiesta Bowl prevented any of that from coming to pass.
The BCS bowls this year should be good, specifically the Fiesta Bowl and the National Championship game. There are many winners and losers but in my opinion, the positive aspects of this year’s BCS selections far outweigh the negatives.
Let the countdown begin!
Only 26 days left…
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