There comes a point in the sporting career of certain people when their primary desire is to win and not to have fun. A good number of those people either play sports at a very high level or quit because they can’t make it to that high level and don’t win enough. For the rest of us mere mortals, we search for the moral victories within sporting events, the silver lining that makes the contest worth participating in despite the gut-wrenching loss.
If you ask the vast majority of quarterbacks in the NFL, would you rather throw for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns in a losing effort or throw for 100 yards and 5 interceptions, I’m willing to bet that they would say they’d rather have the latter. It is that desire to win above all else that makes them as good as they are.
So what is the silver lining for each of the five BCS bowl games? That is the question that I’m going to try to answer with one small addition. I’m going to describe a moral victory for each of the teams playing and then I’m also going to describe what a moral victory would be for college football fans at large. The one thing to remember though is when I’m talking about college football fans, I’m not talking about fans of the individual teams because it’s fairly obvious what a moral victory would be for those people; an actual victory.
For the most part, a moral victory for each individual team also includes actually outscoring their opponents come game day. However, there are some off the field factors at play in several of these match-ups that can lead to increased good feelings whether the outcome is a win or a loss.
ROSE BOWL
WISCONSIN
In a conference that has been dominated by Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, the Badgers have a chance to take a big step forward on the national stage. Their #5 ranking is the highest ranking they’ve had in the BCS era and their next game is against the #3 team in the country. If they win the Rose Bowl, their postseason ranking will be in the top four, if not third or even second, depending on the outcomes of the other BCS bowls.
Despite an overall record of 90-39 over the last ten years, the Badgers have won ten games only three times before this year and this is their first appearance in the Rose Bowl since January of 2001. Wisconsin has the chance to step to the forefront of the Big Ten by taking the conference title and winning what is arguably the most prestigious bowl game in college football.
TCU
The only match-up that could have been better for the Horned Frogs is either if they were playing in the national championship game or if they had drawn Ohio State in a BCS bowl. They happened to draw the only team this year to beat the Buckeyes and not only did Wisconsin beat the Buckeyes, they did it right after Ohio State had risen to #1 in the polls and they did it in a more humiliating manner than #1 teams are used to (31-18).
This is one of the few teams that doesn’t have to win to claim a moral victory. Wisconsin is playing some of the best football of the season, having outscored their last four opponents 235-84. All TCU has to do is play close to Wisconsin and they can make a logical inference that they played the Badgers just about as tough as the Buckeyes did back in the middle of October. If TCU can beat Wisconsin, it will be one last bit of egg on the face of E. Gorgon Gee, president of The Ohio State University. While the transitive law of sports doesn’t apply (just because A beats B and B beats C doesn’t mean that A is better than C), everyone will have to admit (no matter how begrudgingly) that TCU can play with any team in the country.
THE FANS
The silver lining is evenly divided for the fans. Some people want to see the imposter that is TCU lose and lose badly to prove that the five smaller conferences do not belong on the same stage as the six “automatic qualifier” conferences. Others want to see TCU lay a beat-down on Wisconsin to prove once and for all that teams from the smaller conference can compete with the best from the bigger conferences.
TCU has been one of the best teams from the non-AQ conferences for the last several years so some might say that if they don’t win and finish this season off undefeated, this year would be looked at as a disappointment. I completely disagree. They used this year, on top of the last few years, to get an invitation to join the Big East starting in 2012. Granted, I would have much rather seen them join the Big Used-To-Be-8-Then-12-Now-Is-10 or the Pac Used-To-Be-8-Then-10-Then-Almost-16-But-12-Instead, but now they never have to worry about being on the outside looking in simply because they play in the wrong conference.
This does bring up an interesting question though; is the best way to change a system from the outside looking in bringing the spotlight out onto the unfairness of the situation or is it to join the system and attempt to change it from the inside? Of the four teams that have made it to a BCS bowl from outside the 6 AQ conferences, two of them (TCU and Utah) have jumped ship and are joining the Big East and Pac-12, respectively. Interesting food for thought and perhaps another post in the future…
FIESTA BOWL
CONNECTICUT
The Huskies ranked behind 95 of the 120 FBS teams in total offense and behind 61 of them in scoring offense. A moral victory for them is not getting blown out. I hate to say it that way but considering that they went 8-4 this year and didn’t even have the best record in their own conference (West Virginia went 9-3) and that they are playing a team like Oklahoma, they are going to be huge underdogs and the fact of the matter is if they can keep the game close into the fourth quarter, they will have achieved a moral victory.
OKLAHOMA
There is virtually no way that Oklahoma can achieve a moral victory in this game. They are expected to win and they are expected to win big. The Sooners have nothing to win and everything to lose in this game. Unlike several years ago when they were facing off against Boise State, Connecticut is not going to be mistaken for one of the top ten teams in the country. Boise State was 12-0 going into that game and UConn’s 8-4 record is a far cry from the talent on that Broncos team.
ORANGE BOWL
VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies came into this season with legitimate aspirations to run the table in the ACC and challenge for the top two spots in the BCS standings. Those hopes weren’t even derailed with their opening night loss to #3 Boise State down the road from their Blacksburg, Virginia, campus. If everything went according to plan, after that game they would have finished the regular season 12-1 and would have been considered one of the best one-loss teams in the country. What really killed their lofty goals was their terrible loss to James Madison the week after losing to Boise State.
To rebound from those two losses and win 11 straight, becoming the first team to go 8-0 in ACC play, is a testament to the character of this team. To finish off this season with a win over a very good Stanford team would certainly help people forget how high their hopes were at the beginning of the season.
STANFORD
This season has already been a resounding success for the Cardinal and they currently have the hottest prospect for future NFL quarterbacks and future head coaches. Their only loss is to #2 Oregon that only lost their #1 ranking to Auburn because they played more ranked teams down the stretch. They will also be playing in just their second BCS bowl along with the 2000 Rose Bowl which they lost after an 8-3, Pac-10 champion season. They have already exceeded their expectations for this season and no matter how they do, this season will be a success.
SUGAR BOWL
OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes will be making their 6th consecutive BCS bowl appearance and their 9th in 13 years which, in and of itself, is a moral victory. They have been there and done that enough that they can’t really gain all that many points by not winning in a stylish manner. Their struggles against the SEC have been very well publicized and they are fresh out of excuses.
ARKANSAS
The fact that they are here is a moral victory. They survived their brutal SEC schedule to go 10-2 and get an at-large bid, their first BCS bowl appearance. This Ohio State team is a very good one so even if they don’t win and play well, it will still be considered a successful season. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain by beating Ohio State.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
AUBURN
Unfortunately, the biggest moral victory that Auburn can get is for the NCAA to close the investigation into Cam Newton’s pay-for-play controversy. They are ranked #1 in the country, they have the Heisman Trophy winner playing quarterback for them, and they seem to have everything in their favor right now. If we are assuming that they are going to lose the national title game, I would say the biggest thing they can do to achieve a moral victory would be to not get blown out. If their terribly porous pass defense and their stout run defense can put a stop to the Blur, it will be disappoint. If they can stop Oregon, they should win.
OREGON
The biggest consolation for the Ducks right now is with how poorly Auburn has been playing in the first halves and how well Cam Newton has been playing in the second halves, they are actually flying a little under the radar which intrigues me because Oregon is the better all around team and the better all around offense. Auburn goes as Newton goes but Oregon has multiple playmakers on offense to go to if any one of them aren’t having a great game. A month ago, I would have said that the oddsmakers would be favoring Oregon but after the Alabama game and then the SEC title game, I can definitely see them giving the nod to Auburn.
The Ducks have played outstanding offense and underrated defense while running the table in an underrated conference. Arguably the biggest moral victory that they could get would be the respect that the Pac-10 would gain if they and Stanford were able to win their bowl games. Take into account that some of their most prominent playmakers are underclassmen and you have to like where the Ducks are right now.
Showing posts with label BCS National Championship Game. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BCS National Championship Game. Show all posts
Saturday, December 18, 2010
BCS Preview 2011 - National Championship Game
The last game of the 2010-2011 bowl season has the potential to be one of the best national championship games ever. Unfortunately, this has been said before and the last “Greatest Game of All Time” turned into a laugher when Oklahoma got pounded by USC 55-19.
There have been several years over the history of the BCS where the participants in the title game were up for debate and few times have the two teams been the most obvious choices to square off for the hardware. With all due respect to TCU, this is one of those years. I do believe that TCU deserves a shot at the national title but given how they have played this year, I don’t think that TCU should be ranked ahead of either Auburn or Oregon. This game promises to provide plenty of fireworks as neither defense ended up as one of the top in the country while both offenses put up yards and points like few other teams in the country.
The backdrop to this match-up is the entire Cam Newton “Pay-For-Play” fiasco that embroiled the Tigers football program this year. I would love to believe the results of the investigation and say that Cam Newton had no knowledge of what his father was doing but it just seems a little fishy to me that he didn’t know anything at all. Having said that, no evidence of Newton’s wrongdoing has been presented so until proven guilty, he is innocent in my mind and should be eligible to play in this game. I am just worried that five years from now, it will be declared that he had knowledge of the plan all along and his Heisman Trophy will be vacated and the Tigers magical national championship season will be vacated from the record books. Maybe that would be enough for the NCAA to reexamine their policies when it comes to amateur athletes.
Yeah, right…
BY THE NUMBERS
Offensively, the numbers are very similar.
- Oregon ranked 4th in rushing yards per game, Auburn was 6th.
- Oregon was 48th in passing yards, Auburn was 69th.
- Oregon was 2nd in total yards per game, Auburn was 7th.
- Oregon led the nation in points per game, Auburn was 6th.
Defensively, there are some similarities and some differences. Both of these teams were outstanding against the rush, but the numbers are good for different reasons. Auburn ranked 11th against the rush and that ranking is a little more legitimate than Oregon’s ranking of 16th because of the way these two teams took their leads. Likewise, Oregon’s ranking against the pass (56th) is much more inflated than Auburn’s ranking (105th) for the same reason. Auburn was a notoriously slow starting team this year, falling behind numerous times and using a flurry of Cam Newton’s Heismanesque talents to come back in the second half. This means that throughout the game, Auburn’s opponents were most likely trying to utilize a balanced offensive attack and they found that they could chew up yardage through the air but not on the ground.
On the other side, Oregon started somewhat slowly but in the middle of the season when the Blur Offense was at its high octane best, they would start to outpace their opponents late in the second quarter and early in the third. This means that for anywhere from one entire quarter to three entire quarters, Ducks’ opponents had few opportunities for a balanced offense. When you’re trying to make a comeback, you have to air the ball out to get points quickly. Therefore, the passing numbers will be abnormally high and the rushing numbers abnormally low.
What that all means is that Auburn’s run defense is for real and their pass defense is dreadful. On the other side, it just means that Oregon’s defense probably should have been ranked somewhere between 20-40 against both the rush and the pass instead of 16th and 56th. The other important thing to take away from that little bit of conjecture is that there is little doubt around college football circles that Oregon’s defense is in a class above Auburn’s defense and this could be a game where the first team to punt might just lose.
THE TIGERS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have Cam Newton. He was one 11 yard completion away from averaging over 200 yards passing and over 100 yards rushing per game. He led the nation in passing efficiency (sidenote: at the time that I wrote about the Heisman Trophy race a few weeks ago, he was second in efficiency to Kellen Moore but passed him with his performance in the SEC title game) with outstanding metrics: 67% completion percentage, 10.52 yards per attempt, and a 28-6 touchdown to interception ratio. On top of all that, he led the SEC in rushing yards.
Let me say that again: HE LED THE SEC IN RUSHING YARDS. The SEC has a history of producing some great running backs and yet this year, nobody in the conference rushed for more yards than a quarterback. The biggest difference that I see between Newton and Michael Vick (the last quarterback to cause this kind of hubbub over his running skills) is defenses were afraid of Vick throwing the ball but considering that he completed only 56.3% of his college passes, they were more afraid of his running ability. Vick was able to run for so many yards with his sheer athleticism and speed.
By contrast, Cam Newton has shown that while he may not be the most polished passer in the FBS ranks right now, he’s still very good and if you put that extra man or two in the box to stop him, he can exploit man coverage in the secondary. Then, if you drop those extra rushers back into coverage and you give him space and time, he will hurt you on the ground. Then you have a big strong, six foot six, two hundred fifty pound guy with long arms running rampant through your secondary. Just try and tackle him.
KEY STAT: Auburn ranked 105th in passing yards allowed, 75th in passer efficiency allowed, and 54th in points per game allowed.
THE DUCKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Auburn won’t be able to keep up with the Blur. Chip Kelly has toned back his game planning recently, wanting to get victories to ensure his team’s spot in the top two of the final BCS standings but I would expect that to change completely against Auburn. I would expect the Blur to be at its holy-crap-they-already-snapped-the-ball-again finest.
Auburn is extremely good against the rush but will they be able to maintain that intensity and focus for 60 minutes against the Blur, especially when you consider that they probably won’t get too much help from their secondary. Oregon’s offense was at its scary best when Darron Thomas was hitting receivers downfield and the reason for this is simple. As a defensive lineman, if you stop a rushing attempt for a gain of one yard and you know that from the time the ball is spotted you have seven seconds to get set, you’ll only have to move a few yards to get in position. But what happens when Thomas hits a receiver over the middle for a 20 yard gain? You have to sprint 20 yards to get into position and then line up against an offensive line that has been running those types of sprints all year long. Now you just had to sprint 20 yards and you’re going against a 300 pound guard who isn’t as winded as you and he’s about to square you up and drive you off the line.
It doesn’t sound like it would be a big advantage when you consider that these are the best college football teams in the country but over the course of a 60 minute game, it will wear down Auburn’s defensive line. It wouldn’t surprise me at all for the Tigers to take a lead into halftime and then lose it all in the third quarter, which would set up a fantastic race to the finish in the fourth quarter.
Despite missing their first game due to a team imposed suspension, sophomore LaMichael James still led the nation in rushing yards with 1,682. Even though his stature is small (5’9’’, 185 pounds), he has been very durable this year, surpassing 25 carries on 8 different occasions. We also cannot forget that Thomas is also a competent ball carrier, rushing for nearly 500 yards this year while averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
KEY STAT: Oregon’s defense was very opportunistic, ranking seventh this season in turnover margin at +1.08.
THE VERDICT
Both of these teams have gotten a reputation as being slow starters but it’s for different reasons. In the games that I have watched of theirs’ this year, Auburn struggled offensively in the first half of games. Oregon, however, seemed to be feeling their opponents out and wearing them down, knowing that with the conditioning of their entire team, nobody can stay with them for 60 minutes.
In the second half, the Tigers’ defense would then step up and start coming through with key stops while Cam Newton would do his Heisman thing. Oregon would play roughly the same way that they did in the first half but the difference is that the opposing defense is now exhausted so instead of rushes up the middle for 3 or 4 yards, those carries start going for 10 or 12 yards… or sometimes 75.
The way I see this game panning out is Auburn will take the lead into halftime and everyone will start saying that this is going to be unusual because Newton has brought this team back from 4 second half deficits, in three of which they were still trailing in the fourth quarter. Therefore, a lot of people will jump on the Auburn bandwagon.
In the third quarter, Oregon will simply blow the doors off the place and they will remind people why the Blur Offense is as devastating as it is. Cam Newton will try for one more comeback to cap off his amazing season in the fourth quarter but it will be too little, too late.
Oregon 49, Auburn 45
There have been several years over the history of the BCS where the participants in the title game were up for debate and few times have the two teams been the most obvious choices to square off for the hardware. With all due respect to TCU, this is one of those years. I do believe that TCU deserves a shot at the national title but given how they have played this year, I don’t think that TCU should be ranked ahead of either Auburn or Oregon. This game promises to provide plenty of fireworks as neither defense ended up as one of the top in the country while both offenses put up yards and points like few other teams in the country.
The backdrop to this match-up is the entire Cam Newton “Pay-For-Play” fiasco that embroiled the Tigers football program this year. I would love to believe the results of the investigation and say that Cam Newton had no knowledge of what his father was doing but it just seems a little fishy to me that he didn’t know anything at all. Having said that, no evidence of Newton’s wrongdoing has been presented so until proven guilty, he is innocent in my mind and should be eligible to play in this game. I am just worried that five years from now, it will be declared that he had knowledge of the plan all along and his Heisman Trophy will be vacated and the Tigers magical national championship season will be vacated from the record books. Maybe that would be enough for the NCAA to reexamine their policies when it comes to amateur athletes.
Yeah, right…
BY THE NUMBERS
Offensively, the numbers are very similar.
- Oregon ranked 4th in rushing yards per game, Auburn was 6th.
- Oregon was 48th in passing yards, Auburn was 69th.
- Oregon was 2nd in total yards per game, Auburn was 7th.
- Oregon led the nation in points per game, Auburn was 6th.
Defensively, there are some similarities and some differences. Both of these teams were outstanding against the rush, but the numbers are good for different reasons. Auburn ranked 11th against the rush and that ranking is a little more legitimate than Oregon’s ranking of 16th because of the way these two teams took their leads. Likewise, Oregon’s ranking against the pass (56th) is much more inflated than Auburn’s ranking (105th) for the same reason. Auburn was a notoriously slow starting team this year, falling behind numerous times and using a flurry of Cam Newton’s Heismanesque talents to come back in the second half. This means that throughout the game, Auburn’s opponents were most likely trying to utilize a balanced offensive attack and they found that they could chew up yardage through the air but not on the ground.
On the other side, Oregon started somewhat slowly but in the middle of the season when the Blur Offense was at its high octane best, they would start to outpace their opponents late in the second quarter and early in the third. This means that for anywhere from one entire quarter to three entire quarters, Ducks’ opponents had few opportunities for a balanced offense. When you’re trying to make a comeback, you have to air the ball out to get points quickly. Therefore, the passing numbers will be abnormally high and the rushing numbers abnormally low.
What that all means is that Auburn’s run defense is for real and their pass defense is dreadful. On the other side, it just means that Oregon’s defense probably should have been ranked somewhere between 20-40 against both the rush and the pass instead of 16th and 56th. The other important thing to take away from that little bit of conjecture is that there is little doubt around college football circles that Oregon’s defense is in a class above Auburn’s defense and this could be a game where the first team to punt might just lose.
THE TIGERS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have Cam Newton. He was one 11 yard completion away from averaging over 200 yards passing and over 100 yards rushing per game. He led the nation in passing efficiency (sidenote: at the time that I wrote about the Heisman Trophy race a few weeks ago, he was second in efficiency to Kellen Moore but passed him with his performance in the SEC title game) with outstanding metrics: 67% completion percentage, 10.52 yards per attempt, and a 28-6 touchdown to interception ratio. On top of all that, he led the SEC in rushing yards.
Let me say that again: HE LED THE SEC IN RUSHING YARDS. The SEC has a history of producing some great running backs and yet this year, nobody in the conference rushed for more yards than a quarterback. The biggest difference that I see between Newton and Michael Vick (the last quarterback to cause this kind of hubbub over his running skills) is defenses were afraid of Vick throwing the ball but considering that he completed only 56.3% of his college passes, they were more afraid of his running ability. Vick was able to run for so many yards with his sheer athleticism and speed.
By contrast, Cam Newton has shown that while he may not be the most polished passer in the FBS ranks right now, he’s still very good and if you put that extra man or two in the box to stop him, he can exploit man coverage in the secondary. Then, if you drop those extra rushers back into coverage and you give him space and time, he will hurt you on the ground. Then you have a big strong, six foot six, two hundred fifty pound guy with long arms running rampant through your secondary. Just try and tackle him.
KEY STAT: Auburn ranked 105th in passing yards allowed, 75th in passer efficiency allowed, and 54th in points per game allowed.
THE DUCKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Auburn won’t be able to keep up with the Blur. Chip Kelly has toned back his game planning recently, wanting to get victories to ensure his team’s spot in the top two of the final BCS standings but I would expect that to change completely against Auburn. I would expect the Blur to be at its holy-crap-they-already-snapped-the-ball-again finest.
Auburn is extremely good against the rush but will they be able to maintain that intensity and focus for 60 minutes against the Blur, especially when you consider that they probably won’t get too much help from their secondary. Oregon’s offense was at its scary best when Darron Thomas was hitting receivers downfield and the reason for this is simple. As a defensive lineman, if you stop a rushing attempt for a gain of one yard and you know that from the time the ball is spotted you have seven seconds to get set, you’ll only have to move a few yards to get in position. But what happens when Thomas hits a receiver over the middle for a 20 yard gain? You have to sprint 20 yards to get into position and then line up against an offensive line that has been running those types of sprints all year long. Now you just had to sprint 20 yards and you’re going against a 300 pound guard who isn’t as winded as you and he’s about to square you up and drive you off the line.
It doesn’t sound like it would be a big advantage when you consider that these are the best college football teams in the country but over the course of a 60 minute game, it will wear down Auburn’s defensive line. It wouldn’t surprise me at all for the Tigers to take a lead into halftime and then lose it all in the third quarter, which would set up a fantastic race to the finish in the fourth quarter.
Despite missing their first game due to a team imposed suspension, sophomore LaMichael James still led the nation in rushing yards with 1,682. Even though his stature is small (5’9’’, 185 pounds), he has been very durable this year, surpassing 25 carries on 8 different occasions. We also cannot forget that Thomas is also a competent ball carrier, rushing for nearly 500 yards this year while averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
KEY STAT: Oregon’s defense was very opportunistic, ranking seventh this season in turnover margin at +1.08.
THE VERDICT
Both of these teams have gotten a reputation as being slow starters but it’s for different reasons. In the games that I have watched of theirs’ this year, Auburn struggled offensively in the first half of games. Oregon, however, seemed to be feeling their opponents out and wearing them down, knowing that with the conditioning of their entire team, nobody can stay with them for 60 minutes.
In the second half, the Tigers’ defense would then step up and start coming through with key stops while Cam Newton would do his Heisman thing. Oregon would play roughly the same way that they did in the first half but the difference is that the opposing defense is now exhausted so instead of rushes up the middle for 3 or 4 yards, those carries start going for 10 or 12 yards… or sometimes 75.
The way I see this game panning out is Auburn will take the lead into halftime and everyone will start saying that this is going to be unusual because Newton has brought this team back from 4 second half deficits, in three of which they were still trailing in the fourth quarter. Therefore, a lot of people will jump on the Auburn bandwagon.
In the third quarter, Oregon will simply blow the doors off the place and they will remind people why the Blur Offense is as devastating as it is. Cam Newton will try for one more comeback to cap off his amazing season in the fourth quarter but it will be too little, too late.
Oregon 49, Auburn 45
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