There comes a point in the sporting career of certain people when their primary desire is to win and not to have fun. A good number of those people either play sports at a very high level or quit because they can’t make it to that high level and don’t win enough. For the rest of us mere mortals, we search for the moral victories within sporting events, the silver lining that makes the contest worth participating in despite the gut-wrenching loss.
If you ask the vast majority of quarterbacks in the NFL, would you rather throw for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns in a losing effort or throw for 100 yards and 5 interceptions, I’m willing to bet that they would say they’d rather have the latter. It is that desire to win above all else that makes them as good as they are.
So what is the silver lining for each of the five BCS bowl games? That is the question that I’m going to try to answer with one small addition. I’m going to describe a moral victory for each of the teams playing and then I’m also going to describe what a moral victory would be for college football fans at large. The one thing to remember though is when I’m talking about college football fans, I’m not talking about fans of the individual teams because it’s fairly obvious what a moral victory would be for those people; an actual victory.
For the most part, a moral victory for each individual team also includes actually outscoring their opponents come game day. However, there are some off the field factors at play in several of these match-ups that can lead to increased good feelings whether the outcome is a win or a loss.
ROSE BOWL
WISCONSIN
In a conference that has been dominated by Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, the Badgers have a chance to take a big step forward on the national stage. Their #5 ranking is the highest ranking they’ve had in the BCS era and their next game is against the #3 team in the country. If they win the Rose Bowl, their postseason ranking will be in the top four, if not third or even second, depending on the outcomes of the other BCS bowls.
Despite an overall record of 90-39 over the last ten years, the Badgers have won ten games only three times before this year and this is their first appearance in the Rose Bowl since January of 2001. Wisconsin has the chance to step to the forefront of the Big Ten by taking the conference title and winning what is arguably the most prestigious bowl game in college football.
TCU
The only match-up that could have been better for the Horned Frogs is either if they were playing in the national championship game or if they had drawn Ohio State in a BCS bowl. They happened to draw the only team this year to beat the Buckeyes and not only did Wisconsin beat the Buckeyes, they did it right after Ohio State had risen to #1 in the polls and they did it in a more humiliating manner than #1 teams are used to (31-18).
This is one of the few teams that doesn’t have to win to claim a moral victory. Wisconsin is playing some of the best football of the season, having outscored their last four opponents 235-84. All TCU has to do is play close to Wisconsin and they can make a logical inference that they played the Badgers just about as tough as the Buckeyes did back in the middle of October. If TCU can beat Wisconsin, it will be one last bit of egg on the face of E. Gorgon Gee, president of The Ohio State University. While the transitive law of sports doesn’t apply (just because A beats B and B beats C doesn’t mean that A is better than C), everyone will have to admit (no matter how begrudgingly) that TCU can play with any team in the country.
THE FANS
The silver lining is evenly divided for the fans. Some people want to see the imposter that is TCU lose and lose badly to prove that the five smaller conferences do not belong on the same stage as the six “automatic qualifier” conferences. Others want to see TCU lay a beat-down on Wisconsin to prove once and for all that teams from the smaller conference can compete with the best from the bigger conferences.
TCU has been one of the best teams from the non-AQ conferences for the last several years so some might say that if they don’t win and finish this season off undefeated, this year would be looked at as a disappointment. I completely disagree. They used this year, on top of the last few years, to get an invitation to join the Big East starting in 2012. Granted, I would have much rather seen them join the Big Used-To-Be-8-Then-12-Now-Is-10 or the Pac Used-To-Be-8-Then-10-Then-Almost-16-But-12-Instead, but now they never have to worry about being on the outside looking in simply because they play in the wrong conference.
This does bring up an interesting question though; is the best way to change a system from the outside looking in bringing the spotlight out onto the unfairness of the situation or is it to join the system and attempt to change it from the inside? Of the four teams that have made it to a BCS bowl from outside the 6 AQ conferences, two of them (TCU and Utah) have jumped ship and are joining the Big East and Pac-12, respectively. Interesting food for thought and perhaps another post in the future…
FIESTA BOWL
CONNECTICUT
The Huskies ranked behind 95 of the 120 FBS teams in total offense and behind 61 of them in scoring offense. A moral victory for them is not getting blown out. I hate to say it that way but considering that they went 8-4 this year and didn’t even have the best record in their own conference (West Virginia went 9-3) and that they are playing a team like Oklahoma, they are going to be huge underdogs and the fact of the matter is if they can keep the game close into the fourth quarter, they will have achieved a moral victory.
OKLAHOMA
There is virtually no way that Oklahoma can achieve a moral victory in this game. They are expected to win and they are expected to win big. The Sooners have nothing to win and everything to lose in this game. Unlike several years ago when they were facing off against Boise State, Connecticut is not going to be mistaken for one of the top ten teams in the country. Boise State was 12-0 going into that game and UConn’s 8-4 record is a far cry from the talent on that Broncos team.
ORANGE BOWL
VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies came into this season with legitimate aspirations to run the table in the ACC and challenge for the top two spots in the BCS standings. Those hopes weren’t even derailed with their opening night loss to #3 Boise State down the road from their Blacksburg, Virginia, campus. If everything went according to plan, after that game they would have finished the regular season 12-1 and would have been considered one of the best one-loss teams in the country. What really killed their lofty goals was their terrible loss to James Madison the week after losing to Boise State.
To rebound from those two losses and win 11 straight, becoming the first team to go 8-0 in ACC play, is a testament to the character of this team. To finish off this season with a win over a very good Stanford team would certainly help people forget how high their hopes were at the beginning of the season.
STANFORD
This season has already been a resounding success for the Cardinal and they currently have the hottest prospect for future NFL quarterbacks and future head coaches. Their only loss is to #2 Oregon that only lost their #1 ranking to Auburn because they played more ranked teams down the stretch. They will also be playing in just their second BCS bowl along with the 2000 Rose Bowl which they lost after an 8-3, Pac-10 champion season. They have already exceeded their expectations for this season and no matter how they do, this season will be a success.
SUGAR BOWL
OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes will be making their 6th consecutive BCS bowl appearance and their 9th in 13 years which, in and of itself, is a moral victory. They have been there and done that enough that they can’t really gain all that many points by not winning in a stylish manner. Their struggles against the SEC have been very well publicized and they are fresh out of excuses.
ARKANSAS
The fact that they are here is a moral victory. They survived their brutal SEC schedule to go 10-2 and get an at-large bid, their first BCS bowl appearance. This Ohio State team is a very good one so even if they don’t win and play well, it will still be considered a successful season. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain by beating Ohio State.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
AUBURN
Unfortunately, the biggest moral victory that Auburn can get is for the NCAA to close the investigation into Cam Newton’s pay-for-play controversy. They are ranked #1 in the country, they have the Heisman Trophy winner playing quarterback for them, and they seem to have everything in their favor right now. If we are assuming that they are going to lose the national title game, I would say the biggest thing they can do to achieve a moral victory would be to not get blown out. If their terribly porous pass defense and their stout run defense can put a stop to the Blur, it will be disappoint. If they can stop Oregon, they should win.
OREGON
The biggest consolation for the Ducks right now is with how poorly Auburn has been playing in the first halves and how well Cam Newton has been playing in the second halves, they are actually flying a little under the radar which intrigues me because Oregon is the better all around team and the better all around offense. Auburn goes as Newton goes but Oregon has multiple playmakers on offense to go to if any one of them aren’t having a great game. A month ago, I would have said that the oddsmakers would be favoring Oregon but after the Alabama game and then the SEC title game, I can definitely see them giving the nod to Auburn.
The Ducks have played outstanding offense and underrated defense while running the table in an underrated conference. Arguably the biggest moral victory that they could get would be the respect that the Pac-10 would gain if they and Stanford were able to win their bowl games. Take into account that some of their most prominent playmakers are underclassmen and you have to like where the Ducks are right now.
Showing posts with label Sugar Bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sugar Bowl. Show all posts
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Friday, December 17, 2010
BCS Preview 2011 - Sugar Bowl
Yet another intriguing match-up from our friends at the BCS headquarters… with the possible exception of the Fiesta Bowl, this BCS season seems to be full of what could turn out to be epic games. Unfortunately, not very many BCS match-ups have lived up to the hype going into the games. Last year was the first season since the implementation of the BCS that all of the highest ranked teams played in BCS bowls (top ten starting in January 2007 and top eight before that) and all we got out of those five top 10 match-ups was two yawners, a mostly one-sided affair, an enjoyable defensive struggle that was turned on a fake punt, and a thoroughly anti-climactic championship game that only turned out to be so because Colt McCoy injured his shoulder early in the game.
Another thing that happened last year is Jim Tressel opened up his playbook and confounded a lot of people, including myself. The question now is can he do it again? Pundits have repeated time and time again that Ohio State hasn’t beaten an SEC team in a bowl game since… can you remember the last time they beat an SEC team? Was Woody Hayes still coaching the Buckeyes back then?
On the flipside of this match-up are the Razorbacks of Arkansas that haven’t been a factor in college football in years. They are led by their own NFL prospect of a quarterback in Ryan Mallett who ended up ranked 3rd nationally in passing efficiency.
BY THE NUMBERS
Ryan Mallett helps make up for a lot of deficiencies that the Razorbacks have. Their running game is average (65th nationally), their rush defense is a little below average (69th), their scoring defense is slightly better than average (43rd), and their special teams take turns between great and terrible. They ranked 4th nationally in punt return average, just 56th in net punting, and 102nd in kick return average.
It should be noted that the Razorbacks did play a very difficult schedule in the SEC but many of the rankings listed above usually don’t add up to a top ten BCS caliber team unless they do something very very well and what the Razorbacks can do is throw the ball.
The defense that Mallett is going to be throwing against may be one of the stingiest units in the country… again. I know, Ohio State has a great defense… what else is new? The Buckeyes ranked 4th against the rush, 4th against the pass, 2nd overall in yardage allowed per game, and 3rd in points allowed per game. They allowed opposing quarterbacks a rating of just 96.88 (4th best in the country), more than 70 points lower Mallett’s rating.
Given that Arkansas’ offense and Ohio State’s defense are clearly their strengths, this game will most likely hinge on the other match-up, Arkansas’ defense against Ohio State’s offense, which brings us back to Jim Tressel’s play calling again.
If Tressel calls the game like he did last year in the Rose Bowl against Oregon, the Razorbacks will most likely not be too competitive in this game.
THE RAZORBACKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will clam up and go back to his old conservative play-calling days. To be brutally honest, for as good as Mallett has been this year, that is the only way that I can see Arkansas having a realistic shot at winning this game. This is not the Florida team or the LSU team that blew the Buckeyes out of the national title games in the past few years.
Having said that, this team did play tough against Alabama before losing 24-20 and took a lead against Auburn in the fourth quarter before giving up four straight touchdowns and losing by 22. They did put forth 43 points against the #1 team in the country but it needs to be pointed out that that same #1 team is ranked 105th in pass defense. Ohio State is ranked 4th.
KEY STAT: Ryan Mallett averaged 9.87 yards per attempt, 3rd best in the country behind Kellen Moore (10.16) and Cam Newton (10.52).
THE BUCKEYES WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will continue to trust Terrelle Pryor. The junior completed 66% of his passes for a QB rating of 158.0 and rushed for 639 yards along the way. If he is making plays and doing his best Cam Newton imitation, there is little that any team in the country can do to keep up with the Buckeyes. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback, the only thing that can hold back the Buckeyes is Jim Tressel. He is the perfect ambassador for a football program and he is an outstanding defensive coach, but sometimes he holds his team back offensively.
While the Buckeyes were fantastic on defense, they were underrated on offense. They ranked 18th in total offense and 11th in scoring offense, outgaining their opponents by an astounding 198 yards per game and outscoring their opponents by 26 points per game.
On the offchance that their offense stalls and the game turns into a field position battle, the game will favor the Buckeyes even more, since it sometimes seems like Jim Tressel loves nothing more than to get a lead and play defensive, field position football (Ohio State ranked in the top quarter in both punt and kickoff returns this year).
KEY STAT: The Buckeyes ranked 3rd in kickoff return average, 3rd in turnover margin, and 14th in rushing offense, all keys to a ball control, field position victory.
THE VERDICT
Arkansas will be playing much closer to home than Ohio State when they meet in the Superdome in New Orleans but Ohio State has never had trouble filling seats, no matter where in the country they are playing.
Arkansas’ defense hasn’t played particularly well against the better offenses that they have faced this year, culminating with their disastrous fourth quarter against Auburn. Terrelle Pryor isn’t Cam Newton, but he’s also a lot better than most of the other quarterbacks that the Razorbacks have faced this year.
Ohio State has shown some vulnerability to the run this year but not too much to the pass and that is the greatest challenge that they will face from Arkansas.
Stingy turnover forcing defense + ball control offense = Buckeye victory
Ohio State 24, Arkansas 17
Another thing that happened last year is Jim Tressel opened up his playbook and confounded a lot of people, including myself. The question now is can he do it again? Pundits have repeated time and time again that Ohio State hasn’t beaten an SEC team in a bowl game since… can you remember the last time they beat an SEC team? Was Woody Hayes still coaching the Buckeyes back then?
On the flipside of this match-up are the Razorbacks of Arkansas that haven’t been a factor in college football in years. They are led by their own NFL prospect of a quarterback in Ryan Mallett who ended up ranked 3rd nationally in passing efficiency.
BY THE NUMBERS
Ryan Mallett helps make up for a lot of deficiencies that the Razorbacks have. Their running game is average (65th nationally), their rush defense is a little below average (69th), their scoring defense is slightly better than average (43rd), and their special teams take turns between great and terrible. They ranked 4th nationally in punt return average, just 56th in net punting, and 102nd in kick return average.
It should be noted that the Razorbacks did play a very difficult schedule in the SEC but many of the rankings listed above usually don’t add up to a top ten BCS caliber team unless they do something very very well and what the Razorbacks can do is throw the ball.
The defense that Mallett is going to be throwing against may be one of the stingiest units in the country… again. I know, Ohio State has a great defense… what else is new? The Buckeyes ranked 4th against the rush, 4th against the pass, 2nd overall in yardage allowed per game, and 3rd in points allowed per game. They allowed opposing quarterbacks a rating of just 96.88 (4th best in the country), more than 70 points lower Mallett’s rating.
Given that Arkansas’ offense and Ohio State’s defense are clearly their strengths, this game will most likely hinge on the other match-up, Arkansas’ defense against Ohio State’s offense, which brings us back to Jim Tressel’s play calling again.
If Tressel calls the game like he did last year in the Rose Bowl against Oregon, the Razorbacks will most likely not be too competitive in this game.
THE RAZORBACKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will clam up and go back to his old conservative play-calling days. To be brutally honest, for as good as Mallett has been this year, that is the only way that I can see Arkansas having a realistic shot at winning this game. This is not the Florida team or the LSU team that blew the Buckeyes out of the national title games in the past few years.
Having said that, this team did play tough against Alabama before losing 24-20 and took a lead against Auburn in the fourth quarter before giving up four straight touchdowns and losing by 22. They did put forth 43 points against the #1 team in the country but it needs to be pointed out that that same #1 team is ranked 105th in pass defense. Ohio State is ranked 4th.
KEY STAT: Ryan Mallett averaged 9.87 yards per attempt, 3rd best in the country behind Kellen Moore (10.16) and Cam Newton (10.52).
THE BUCKEYES WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will continue to trust Terrelle Pryor. The junior completed 66% of his passes for a QB rating of 158.0 and rushed for 639 yards along the way. If he is making plays and doing his best Cam Newton imitation, there is little that any team in the country can do to keep up with the Buckeyes. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback, the only thing that can hold back the Buckeyes is Jim Tressel. He is the perfect ambassador for a football program and he is an outstanding defensive coach, but sometimes he holds his team back offensively.
While the Buckeyes were fantastic on defense, they were underrated on offense. They ranked 18th in total offense and 11th in scoring offense, outgaining their opponents by an astounding 198 yards per game and outscoring their opponents by 26 points per game.
On the offchance that their offense stalls and the game turns into a field position battle, the game will favor the Buckeyes even more, since it sometimes seems like Jim Tressel loves nothing more than to get a lead and play defensive, field position football (Ohio State ranked in the top quarter in both punt and kickoff returns this year).
KEY STAT: The Buckeyes ranked 3rd in kickoff return average, 3rd in turnover margin, and 14th in rushing offense, all keys to a ball control, field position victory.
THE VERDICT
Arkansas will be playing much closer to home than Ohio State when they meet in the Superdome in New Orleans but Ohio State has never had trouble filling seats, no matter where in the country they are playing.
Arkansas’ defense hasn’t played particularly well against the better offenses that they have faced this year, culminating with their disastrous fourth quarter against Auburn. Terrelle Pryor isn’t Cam Newton, but he’s also a lot better than most of the other quarterbacks that the Razorbacks have faced this year.
Ohio State has shown some vulnerability to the run this year but not too much to the pass and that is the greatest challenge that they will face from Arkansas.
Stingy turnover forcing defense + ball control offense = Buckeye victory
Ohio State 24, Arkansas 17
Sunday, December 13, 2009
BCS Preview: Sugar Bowl
Of the five match-ups in the BCS, perhaps the most interesting one is that which will take place between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl, January 1st at 8:30 PM Eastern time. For the first twelve games of the season, these two teams could not have been more different with the exception of their records. Florida was looking for their third national title in four years and Tim Tebow was looking for his second Heisman trophy, trying to become the second player ever to achieve that feat. On the other hand, Cincinnati has been struggling for the spotlight in the Big East, seen by many as one of the weaker Automatic Qualifying conferences. However, the biggest questions surrounding this game have nothing to do with x’s and o’s, offensive or defensive rankings, or Heisman finalists or snubs.
The biggest question about this game is motivation. On the side of Florida, there is the fact that before this game is even played, many consider this season a disappointment. Not that it needs to be said again but in the past three years, the Gators won two national titles, Tebow won the Heisman, and most importantly, Tebow and Brandon Spikes both came back for their senior years. The Gators returned 11 defensive starters from a team that throttled Oklahoma’s record setting offense in the National Title game a year ago. At this point, for this group of players, there is very little that they haven’t already done. For all the freshmen, they have three more years to make their own mark. Whether they win or lose the Sugar Bowl, the Florida squad’s place in history will be roughly the same.
For Cincinnati, the source of their distraction is the University of Notre Dame. Given the coverage in the media, it very much seemed as if Head Coach Brian Kelly was simply going to humor Notre Dame officials and was inevitably going to turn them down and try to maintain this level of success at Cincinnati. Whether it was the prestige of the Golden Dome, the challenge of bringing a winner to South Bend, Indiana, or simply the pocketbook of Notre Dame, something convinced Kelly to jump off of the Bearcats’ ship. The question is how will Cincinnati respond?
By the Numbers
This will be an interesting game because it will pit one of the best passing attacks in the country against one of the best overall defenses in the country.
For Cincinnati, everything hinges on their ability to pass the football. They ranked 65th in the country running the ball but were #6 in passing offense and had the best overall passing efficiency in the country at 166.19. The worry for the Bearcats isn’t their offense, it’s their defense. In the last four games alone, they’ve allowed 146 points and they haven’t faced any offenses as good as Florida this year.
For Florida, despite having Tim Tebow as their quarterback, this team lives and dies by its defense. This year the Gators defense allowed as many as 20 points just twice and against Mississippi State (who scored 19 points), two Tebow interceptions were returned for touchdowns. They finished 13th against the run, 3rd against the pass, 4th overall, 5th in passing efficiency allowed, and 3rd in points per game allowed. Despite their defensive prowess, you can’t forget that the Gators still were 13th in points scored, 12th in total offense, and 5th in passing efficiency.
Why the Bearcats Will Win
Cincinnati has two quarterbacks that are more than proficient at running this offense. If something happens to starter Tony Pike, “back-up” Zach Collaros had a 195.53 rating and averaged 11.6 yards per attempt. Over 10 or 20 attempts those numbers are good but over 124 attempts, those numbers are bordering on ridiculous. The other part that must be considered is the fact that when you have such a prolific passing attack, you are never truly out of a game. Playing on the road against a top 15 team in Pittsburgh, they were down 31-10 late in the first half. They proceeded to storm all the way back to a 38-38 tie and after Pitt scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:36 remaining in the game, Tony Pike led the Bearcats 61 yards in just over a minute to win the game 45-44. They are a very dangerous team and probably the most potent offense that Florida has faced all year. They scored at least 40 points 6 times and if they can get into a shootout with Florida, that match-up favors the Bearcats.
Why the Gators Will Win
Reason number one is #15. This will be the last game of Tim Tebow’s historic career and he will want to go out on a much better note than that which was heard in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. Tebow finished the season 8th in passing efficiency and despite the loss of Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy to the NFL; he still has plenty of playmakers to light up the scoreboard. Along with the offense, they boast perhaps the best man-for-man defense in the country and a great head coach in Urban Meyer.
The Verdict
If the Alabama Crimson Tide had beaten the Florida Gators in a close game in the SEC title game, I would say that the Gators are a lock to win this game. Considering that Cincinnati played a great 2nd half against Pittsburgh and that Florida was never really in the game against Alabama, it puts this game much more in play. I believe that the Gators will come out flat in the 1st quarter and the question is; can the Bearcats take advantage of that lapse? The answer is yes. The Gators are going to play like they have nothing to play for (which, compared to earlier this month, they don’t) and the Bearcats are going to play like they are lucky to be here (which they are). Tony Pike is going to come out of the gates hot and by the time the Gators catch their breath it will be too late because they lack the big play weapons in the passing game to come back from a deficit.
Cincinnati 30, Florida 24
The biggest question about this game is motivation. On the side of Florida, there is the fact that before this game is even played, many consider this season a disappointment. Not that it needs to be said again but in the past three years, the Gators won two national titles, Tebow won the Heisman, and most importantly, Tebow and Brandon Spikes both came back for their senior years. The Gators returned 11 defensive starters from a team that throttled Oklahoma’s record setting offense in the National Title game a year ago. At this point, for this group of players, there is very little that they haven’t already done. For all the freshmen, they have three more years to make their own mark. Whether they win or lose the Sugar Bowl, the Florida squad’s place in history will be roughly the same.
For Cincinnati, the source of their distraction is the University of Notre Dame. Given the coverage in the media, it very much seemed as if Head Coach Brian Kelly was simply going to humor Notre Dame officials and was inevitably going to turn them down and try to maintain this level of success at Cincinnati. Whether it was the prestige of the Golden Dome, the challenge of bringing a winner to South Bend, Indiana, or simply the pocketbook of Notre Dame, something convinced Kelly to jump off of the Bearcats’ ship. The question is how will Cincinnati respond?
By the Numbers
This will be an interesting game because it will pit one of the best passing attacks in the country against one of the best overall defenses in the country.
For Cincinnati, everything hinges on their ability to pass the football. They ranked 65th in the country running the ball but were #6 in passing offense and had the best overall passing efficiency in the country at 166.19. The worry for the Bearcats isn’t their offense, it’s their defense. In the last four games alone, they’ve allowed 146 points and they haven’t faced any offenses as good as Florida this year.
For Florida, despite having Tim Tebow as their quarterback, this team lives and dies by its defense. This year the Gators defense allowed as many as 20 points just twice and against Mississippi State (who scored 19 points), two Tebow interceptions were returned for touchdowns. They finished 13th against the run, 3rd against the pass, 4th overall, 5th in passing efficiency allowed, and 3rd in points per game allowed. Despite their defensive prowess, you can’t forget that the Gators still were 13th in points scored, 12th in total offense, and 5th in passing efficiency.
Why the Bearcats Will Win
Cincinnati has two quarterbacks that are more than proficient at running this offense. If something happens to starter Tony Pike, “back-up” Zach Collaros had a 195.53 rating and averaged 11.6 yards per attempt. Over 10 or 20 attempts those numbers are good but over 124 attempts, those numbers are bordering on ridiculous. The other part that must be considered is the fact that when you have such a prolific passing attack, you are never truly out of a game. Playing on the road against a top 15 team in Pittsburgh, they were down 31-10 late in the first half. They proceeded to storm all the way back to a 38-38 tie and after Pitt scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:36 remaining in the game, Tony Pike led the Bearcats 61 yards in just over a minute to win the game 45-44. They are a very dangerous team and probably the most potent offense that Florida has faced all year. They scored at least 40 points 6 times and if they can get into a shootout with Florida, that match-up favors the Bearcats.
Why the Gators Will Win
Reason number one is #15. This will be the last game of Tim Tebow’s historic career and he will want to go out on a much better note than that which was heard in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. Tebow finished the season 8th in passing efficiency and despite the loss of Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy to the NFL; he still has plenty of playmakers to light up the scoreboard. Along with the offense, they boast perhaps the best man-for-man defense in the country and a great head coach in Urban Meyer.
The Verdict
If the Alabama Crimson Tide had beaten the Florida Gators in a close game in the SEC title game, I would say that the Gators are a lock to win this game. Considering that Cincinnati played a great 2nd half against Pittsburgh and that Florida was never really in the game against Alabama, it puts this game much more in play. I believe that the Gators will come out flat in the 1st quarter and the question is; can the Bearcats take advantage of that lapse? The answer is yes. The Gators are going to play like they have nothing to play for (which, compared to earlier this month, they don’t) and the Bearcats are going to play like they are lucky to be here (which they are). Tony Pike is going to come out of the gates hot and by the time the Gators catch their breath it will be too late because they lack the big play weapons in the passing game to come back from a deficit.
Cincinnati 30, Florida 24
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