BCS Preview 2011 - Sugar Bowl

Yet another intriguing match-up from our friends at the BCS headquarters… with the possible exception of the Fiesta Bowl, this BCS season seems to be full of what could turn out to be epic games. Unfortunately, not very many BCS match-ups have lived up to the hype going into the games. Last year was the first season since the implementation of the BCS that all of the highest ranked teams played in BCS bowls (top ten starting in January 2007 and top eight before that) and all we got out of those five top 10 match-ups was two yawners, a mostly one-sided affair, an enjoyable defensive struggle that was turned on a fake punt, and a thoroughly anti-climactic championship game that only turned out to be so because Colt McCoy injured his shoulder early in the game.

Another thing that happened last year is Jim Tressel opened up his playbook and confounded a lot of people, including myself. The question now is can he do it again? Pundits have repeated time and time again that Ohio State hasn’t beaten an SEC team in a bowl game since… can you remember the last time they beat an SEC team? Was Woody Hayes still coaching the Buckeyes back then?

On the flipside of this match-up are the Razorbacks of Arkansas that haven’t been a factor in college football in years. They are led by their own NFL prospect of a quarterback in Ryan Mallett who ended up ranked 3rd nationally in passing efficiency.

BY THE NUMBERS

Ryan Mallett helps make up for a lot of deficiencies that the Razorbacks have. Their running game is average (65th nationally), their rush defense is a little below average (69th), their scoring defense is slightly better than average (43rd), and their special teams take turns between great and terrible. They ranked 4th nationally in punt return average, just 56th in net punting, and 102nd in kick return average.

It should be noted that the Razorbacks did play a very difficult schedule in the SEC but many of the rankings listed above usually don’t add up to a top ten BCS caliber team unless they do something very very well and what the Razorbacks can do is throw the ball.

The defense that Mallett is going to be throwing against may be one of the stingiest units in the country… again. I know, Ohio State has a great defense… what else is new? The Buckeyes ranked 4th against the rush, 4th against the pass, 2nd overall in yardage allowed per game, and 3rd in points allowed per game. They allowed opposing quarterbacks a rating of just 96.88 (4th best in the country), more than 70 points lower Mallett’s rating.

Given that Arkansas’ offense and Ohio State’s defense are clearly their strengths, this game will most likely hinge on the other match-up, Arkansas’ defense against Ohio State’s offense, which brings us back to Jim Tressel’s play calling again.

If Tressel calls the game like he did last year in the Rose Bowl against Oregon, the Razorbacks will most likely not be too competitive in this game.

THE RAZORBACKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…

Jim Tressel will clam up and go back to his old conservative play-calling days. To be brutally honest, for as good as Mallett has been this year, that is the only way that I can see Arkansas having a realistic shot at winning this game. This is not the Florida team or the LSU team that blew the Buckeyes out of the national title games in the past few years.

Having said that, this team did play tough against Alabama before losing 24-20 and took a lead against Auburn in the fourth quarter before giving up four straight touchdowns and losing by 22. They did put forth 43 points against the #1 team in the country but it needs to be pointed out that that same #1 team is ranked 105th in pass defense. Ohio State is ranked 4th.

KEY STAT: Ryan Mallett averaged 9.87 yards per attempt, 3rd best in the country behind Kellen Moore (10.16) and Cam Newton (10.52).

THE BUCKEYES WILL WIN BECAUSE…

Jim Tressel will continue to trust Terrelle Pryor. The junior completed 66% of his passes for a QB rating of 158.0 and rushed for 639 yards along the way. If he is making plays and doing his best Cam Newton imitation, there is little that any team in the country can do to keep up with the Buckeyes. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback, the only thing that can hold back the Buckeyes is Jim Tressel. He is the perfect ambassador for a football program and he is an outstanding defensive coach, but sometimes he holds his team back offensively.

While the Buckeyes were fantastic on defense, they were underrated on offense. They ranked 18th in total offense and 11th in scoring offense, outgaining their opponents by an astounding 198 yards per game and outscoring their opponents by 26 points per game.

On the offchance that their offense stalls and the game turns into a field position battle, the game will favor the Buckeyes even more, since it sometimes seems like Jim Tressel loves nothing more than to get a lead and play defensive, field position football (Ohio State ranked in the top quarter in both punt and kickoff returns this year).

KEY STAT: The Buckeyes ranked 3rd in kickoff return average, 3rd in turnover margin, and 14th in rushing offense, all keys to a ball control, field position victory.

THE VERDICT

Arkansas will be playing much closer to home than Ohio State when they meet in the Superdome in New Orleans but Ohio State has never had trouble filling seats, no matter where in the country they are playing.

Arkansas’ defense hasn’t played particularly well against the better offenses that they have faced this year, culminating with their disastrous fourth quarter against Auburn. Terrelle Pryor isn’t Cam Newton, but he’s also a lot better than most of the other quarterbacks that the Razorbacks have faced this year.

Ohio State has shown some vulnerability to the run this year but not too much to the pass and that is the greatest challenge that they will face from Arkansas.

Stingy turnover forcing defense + ball control offense = Buckeye victory

Ohio State 24, Arkansas 17