BCS Preview 2011 - Rose Bowl

It’s that time of year again! The final BCS standings have come out and unlike several years past, there are relatively few arguments to be made about the selections for the BCS. Granted, there is one glaring team that doesn’t seem to belong (we’re looking at you, Huskies) but that’s just the annual problem with giving six conferences automatic bids when there are bound to be down years for each and every conference in the country.

This is my third year writing previews for the BCS games and so far my record is dead even at 5-5. Two years ago I managed to get four of the five games right, missing out on a perfect BCS season because Alabama decided to only play three quarters instead of four against Utah. Last year was the exact opposite as Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, TCU, and Oregon all disappointed me. The one constant is that I have correctly picked both national champions so if you feel like placing a wager…

So we start off our BCS conversation in Pasadena, California, with the Rose Bowl.

In my opinion this game this year could be called the Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Bowl. In the 2011 Rose Bowl Game provided by Vizio, played January 1st at 5:00 Eastern Standard Time on ESPN, the Texas Christian Horned Frogs will square off against the Wisconsin Badgers. While the Badgers haven’t had anything to do with the recent controversy surround Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee’s comments, they couldn’t help but be dragged into the mix and the reason is simple; they beat Ohio State. On October 16th, Ohio State came into Camp Randall as the #1 team in the country and left with their first loss. If TCU managed to beat Wisconsin, it will prolong the embarrassment for Gee even though he has already retracted his absurd comments.

What is at stake for TCU? Everything. This is, in my opinion, the very rare instance where they have everything to win and everything to lose at the same time. If they lose, people will say that they can’t compete at this level and it will set back the cause of the TCU’s and Utah’s and Boise State’s by several years. If they can pull this game out, then they can say they beat a very good team from a BCS conference (not Pittsburgh or UConn or whoever gets the nod from the Big East) in a neutral site where the BCS conference member has very few excuses to use about why they lost. The fates of 55 teams spread across five conferences are all going to watch this game eagerly and no matter how much they hate TCU, on January 1st they should all be fans of the Horned Frogs.

BY THE NUMBERS

This game matches two of the more impressive statistical resumes that exist in the BCS games this year and there isn’t a large advantage on either side but where you see the biggest difference is in their respective defensive rankings.

TCU was ranked 3rd against the rush (89.17 yards per game), 1st against the pass (126.25), 1st in pass efficiency defense (93.12 opponent’s quarterback rating), 1st in overall defense (215.42), and first in scoring defense (11.42 points per game).

Wisconsin’s offensive ranks in those five categories are 12th, 74th, 17th, 3rd, and 4th, respectively. This is definitely going to be a strength vs. strength match-up when the Badgers have the ball and that could very well determine who wins this game.

TCU WILL WIN BECAUSE…

They have a chip on their shoulder the size of Texas. They have played in one BCS bowl and because of a fake punt by Boise State, they were not able to pull the game out (granted, the game was tied at the time but that was the play that sent the Broncos on their way to victory). On top of that, the president of a university with one of the more prestigious football programs in the country came out and slammed several football programs by name, including TCU’s. If you think that Gary Patterson isn’t using that to motivate his team against the only team to beat Ohio State this year, you are flat out wrong.

The Horned Frogs are a senior laden bunch and that, as much as anything else, works greatly in their favor in this game. They also played in a BCS bowl just a year ago while the Badgers haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since they beat UCLA and Stanford in back to back years in 1999 and 2000.

TCU was outstanding on offense (8th in rushing, 9th in total offense, 4th in scoring offense) and was even better on defense (see defensive rankings above). They allowed 10 or fewer points in 8 of their 12 games this year and allowed more than 24 just once.

Their special teams are also quite good as they ranked 5th in both punt return average and kick return average. If this game turns into a shootout, it could very much go either way. If it turns into a field position defensive struggle, I think that the advantage is definitely in TCU’s favor.

KEY STAT: You want more evidence of how their experience has shown this season? As a team they have allowed only 9 sacks and have thrown just 6 interceptions all season.

WISCONSIN WILL WIN BECAUSE…

They cannot be stopped on offense. 6 times this year they have scored more than 40 points and in three of those games, they topped 70. They did have a close call against a 6-6 Arizona State team (at home, no less) two weeks before suffering their only defeat against Michigan State but since then, only Iowa has played within 13 points of the Badgers.

Offensively, they are led by the three headed monster of James White, John Clay, and Montee Ball who have combined to rush for 2,829 yards (with a 6.1 yard per carry average) and 44 touchdowns. That sort of ridiculous production has led to Scott Tolzien having a fantastic year, despite only throwing the ball about 20 times per game. His passer rating of 169.8 ranks 4th nationally and he has been consistent this year, not prone to too many up and down performances.

Defensively, the Badgers haven’t been nearly as good and that unit is most critical to their success against Andy Dalton and TCU. They ranked just 49th in pass efficiency defense and part of that can be explained by the fact that given their enormous leads in several games, their opponents will have been throwing the ball all over the field in an attempt to keep up with Wisconsin. It still means, however, that their pass defense is suspect. They also ranked 29th in scoring defense and did surrender 20 or more points 7 times, including 30 to Iowa and 34 to Michigan State in their one loss.

KEY STAT: Wisconsin ranked 3rd this year in turnover margin at +1.17 per game.

THE VERDICT

I went with TCU a year ago and they let me down. They won’t do it to me again.

In short, their defense is too good. I know that their numbers have been inflated slightly by playing against the Mountain West Conference but even if you could adjust for the competition that they are playing, they still have an elite, senior heavy defense. Their defensive unit has 10 seniors and 6 of them played in every game this year.

On the other side of the ball, four of their five offensive lineman are seniors and the fifth is a junior and most importantly, Andy Dalton is a senior wanting put an exclamation point on a career that so far has a 41-8 record.

Most of all though, this is one of the few real shots that a team from a non-BCS conference will have to go toe to toe with a top five team from a BCS conference on a neutral field and the Horned Frogs will be ready.

I think that TCU will come out of the gate and hit Wisconsin in the mouth in the first quarter before settling down to a defensive, field position battle similar to the way Utah beat Alabama two years ago.

TCU 28, WISCONSIN 21