It’s that time of year again! The final BCS standings have come out and unlike several years past, there are relatively few arguments to be made about the selections for the BCS. Granted, there is one glaring team that doesn’t seem to belong (we’re looking at you, Huskies) but that’s just the annual problem with giving six conferences automatic bids when there are bound to be down years for each and every conference in the country.
This is my third year writing previews for the BCS games and so far my record is dead even at 5-5. Two years ago I managed to get four of the five games right, missing out on a perfect BCS season because Alabama decided to only play three quarters instead of four against Utah. Last year was the exact opposite as Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, TCU, and Oregon all disappointed me. The one constant is that I have correctly picked both national champions so if you feel like placing a wager…
So we start off our BCS conversation in Pasadena, California, with the Rose Bowl.
In my opinion this game this year could be called the Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Bowl. In the 2011 Rose Bowl Game provided by Vizio, played January 1st at 5:00 Eastern Standard Time on ESPN, the Texas Christian Horned Frogs will square off against the Wisconsin Badgers. While the Badgers haven’t had anything to do with the recent controversy surround Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee’s comments, they couldn’t help but be dragged into the mix and the reason is simple; they beat Ohio State. On October 16th, Ohio State came into Camp Randall as the #1 team in the country and left with their first loss. If TCU managed to beat Wisconsin, it will prolong the embarrassment for Gee even though he has already retracted his absurd comments.
What is at stake for TCU? Everything. This is, in my opinion, the very rare instance where they have everything to win and everything to lose at the same time. If they lose, people will say that they can’t compete at this level and it will set back the cause of the TCU’s and Utah’s and Boise State’s by several years. If they can pull this game out, then they can say they beat a very good team from a BCS conference (not Pittsburgh or UConn or whoever gets the nod from the Big East) in a neutral site where the BCS conference member has very few excuses to use about why they lost. The fates of 55 teams spread across five conferences are all going to watch this game eagerly and no matter how much they hate TCU, on January 1st they should all be fans of the Horned Frogs.
BY THE NUMBERS
This game matches two of the more impressive statistical resumes that exist in the BCS games this year and there isn’t a large advantage on either side but where you see the biggest difference is in their respective defensive rankings.
TCU was ranked 3rd against the rush (89.17 yards per game), 1st against the pass (126.25), 1st in pass efficiency defense (93.12 opponent’s quarterback rating), 1st in overall defense (215.42), and first in scoring defense (11.42 points per game).
Wisconsin’s offensive ranks in those five categories are 12th, 74th, 17th, 3rd, and 4th, respectively. This is definitely going to be a strength vs. strength match-up when the Badgers have the ball and that could very well determine who wins this game.
TCU WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have a chip on their shoulder the size of Texas. They have played in one BCS bowl and because of a fake punt by Boise State, they were not able to pull the game out (granted, the game was tied at the time but that was the play that sent the Broncos on their way to victory). On top of that, the president of a university with one of the more prestigious football programs in the country came out and slammed several football programs by name, including TCU’s. If you think that Gary Patterson isn’t using that to motivate his team against the only team to beat Ohio State this year, you are flat out wrong.
The Horned Frogs are a senior laden bunch and that, as much as anything else, works greatly in their favor in this game. They also played in a BCS bowl just a year ago while the Badgers haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since they beat UCLA and Stanford in back to back years in 1999 and 2000.
TCU was outstanding on offense (8th in rushing, 9th in total offense, 4th in scoring offense) and was even better on defense (see defensive rankings above). They allowed 10 or fewer points in 8 of their 12 games this year and allowed more than 24 just once.
Their special teams are also quite good as they ranked 5th in both punt return average and kick return average. If this game turns into a shootout, it could very much go either way. If it turns into a field position defensive struggle, I think that the advantage is definitely in TCU’s favor.
KEY STAT: You want more evidence of how their experience has shown this season? As a team they have allowed only 9 sacks and have thrown just 6 interceptions all season.
WISCONSIN WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They cannot be stopped on offense. 6 times this year they have scored more than 40 points and in three of those games, they topped 70. They did have a close call against a 6-6 Arizona State team (at home, no less) two weeks before suffering their only defeat against Michigan State but since then, only Iowa has played within 13 points of the Badgers.
Offensively, they are led by the three headed monster of James White, John Clay, and Montee Ball who have combined to rush for 2,829 yards (with a 6.1 yard per carry average) and 44 touchdowns. That sort of ridiculous production has led to Scott Tolzien having a fantastic year, despite only throwing the ball about 20 times per game. His passer rating of 169.8 ranks 4th nationally and he has been consistent this year, not prone to too many up and down performances.
Defensively, the Badgers haven’t been nearly as good and that unit is most critical to their success against Andy Dalton and TCU. They ranked just 49th in pass efficiency defense and part of that can be explained by the fact that given their enormous leads in several games, their opponents will have been throwing the ball all over the field in an attempt to keep up with Wisconsin. It still means, however, that their pass defense is suspect. They also ranked 29th in scoring defense and did surrender 20 or more points 7 times, including 30 to Iowa and 34 to Michigan State in their one loss.
KEY STAT: Wisconsin ranked 3rd this year in turnover margin at +1.17 per game.
THE VERDICT
I went with TCU a year ago and they let me down. They won’t do it to me again.
In short, their defense is too good. I know that their numbers have been inflated slightly by playing against the Mountain West Conference but even if you could adjust for the competition that they are playing, they still have an elite, senior heavy defense. Their defensive unit has 10 seniors and 6 of them played in every game this year.
On the other side of the ball, four of their five offensive lineman are seniors and the fifth is a junior and most importantly, Andy Dalton is a senior wanting put an exclamation point on a career that so far has a 41-8 record.
Most of all though, this is one of the few real shots that a team from a non-BCS conference will have to go toe to toe with a top five team from a BCS conference on a neutral field and the Horned Frogs will be ready.
I think that TCU will come out of the gate and hit Wisconsin in the mouth in the first quarter before settling down to a defensive, field position battle similar to the way Utah beat Alabama two years ago.
TCU 28, WISCONSIN 21
Showing posts with label TCU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TCU. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Winners and Losers of BCS '10
The BCS field is set and the countdown has begun until January 7th, when Alabama and Texas will meet to decide the champion for the 2009 season. With the regular season over and the bowl season to come, it is time to look back and determine the winners and the losers from the season.
First, the winners.
WINNERS
Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences
The first “winners” are the little guys. For the first time in the 12 year history of the BCS, two teams from outside the AQ (automatic qualifying) conferences will play in a BCS bowl and bring a $12-15 million paycheck back to their conferences. Both Boise State and TCU benefited from the fact that perennial powers Oklahoma and USC both had down years at the same time. Had either of those schools performed to their 2008 level, one of the two, in all likelihood Boise State, would have been left out of the BCS party.
The SEC
For the second consecutive year, the SEC Championship Game was essentially a national semifinal game with the winner heading to the BCS National Championship Game. Last year it was #3 Florida beating #1 Alabama 31-20 and then winning the national title and this year, #2 Alabama manhandles #1 Florida 32-13 and will be playing for the national title. There is still the perception that while the rest of the SEC may be down and not playing its best football of the past decade, the conference is still loaded at the top. On top of that, when you take into account the incredible depth of young talent that Alabama has, the country may have traded one SEC juggernaut (Florida) for another.
The Fiesta Bowl
For the first time in the BCS era, two undefeated teams will square off in a game that will not determine the national champion. The Fiesta Bowl will feature #4 TCU (12-0) against #6 Boise State (13-0). We can only hope that the game lives up to their bowl meeting last year, one in which TCU pulled out a 17-16 victory.
Now, the flip side of the coin…
LOSERS
The Big XII
Coming into this year the storylines surrounding the Big XII were even better than those in the SEC. Two Heisman Trophy finalists (and one winner), the infamous tie-breaker situation last year, and two teams loaded and ready to compete for the division, the conference, and the crystal football. All of those expectations came crashing back down to earth in the first game of Oklahoma’s season, when they not only lost to BYU, but also lost Heisman winning quarterback Sam Bradford to a shoulder injury. He attempted to come back later in the season but played little before re-aggravating the injury and then being lost for the season, not to return to Norman, Oklahoma.
It’s hard to call a conference a loser when one of its teams is playing for the national title but compared to 2008, this season has been a disappointing one outside of Austin, Texas. After Oklahoma’s loss to BYU, it’s been a longshot for the Big XII to get two BCS berths. Towards the end of the season, it looked decent for Oklahoma State, but losing to the Sooners 27-0 in the regular season finale ended any of those thoughts. Last year, all people could talk about was which conference was better between the Big XII and the SEC and for most people, it came down to where you were from. This year it hasn’t been close and with the departure of Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, the Big XII will need to reload to be relevant in that conversation again.
The Pac-10
The SEC may have been the best conference at the top but there is no question in my mind which conference was the best from top to bottom. Only one team lost fewer than 4 games (conference champion Oregon, at 10-2) but consider this. The lowest ranked strength of schedule in the Pac-10 was Arizona State, whose schedule was ranked 24th by Jeff Sagarin. Conference champion Oregon’s schedule was rated as the 4th toughest in the nation, easily the most difficult of the 10 BCS Bowl participants. This is mainly due to two things; tough out-of-conference scheduling and a tough conference. Put another way, below are the 8 conferences that will be participating in BCS bowls and their three toughest schedules this year according to Jeff Sagarin with their national ranks.
ACC – Florida State (3), Virginia (6), Virginia Tech (11)
Big East – West Virginia (33), Connecticut (36), Syracuse (39)
Big Ten – Minnesota (30), Illinois (38), Purdue (46)
Big XII – Oklahoma (31), Colorado (32), Baylor 34)
Mountain West – New Mexico (55), Wyoming (57), Colorado State (64)
Pac-10 – Washington State (1), Washington (2), Oregon (4)
SEC – Georgia (5), South Carolina (7), Mississippi State (8)
WAC – San Jose State (54), Utah State (65), Louisiana Tech (72)
How does this make the Pac-10 losers? Top heavy conferences produce undefeated records and send teams to the BCS bowls and maybe even the national title game. While a Rose Bowl bid goes to a very deserving Oregon team, there has never been any discussion of a second Pac-10 team in the BCS because they beat each other up in conference play. Only one team had fewer than 3 conference losses this year in the Pac-10. Last year, there were three Big XII teams with one loss and both last year and this year, two SEC teams finished their regular seasons undefeated. This helps because the Ducks will be favored in the Rose Bowl. This hurts because they’re the only ones playing the BCS.
Lastly, there in one winner and one loser that are so closely linked that they have to be separate from the rest of this discussion.
Automatic Qualifying Conferences (winner) and Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences (loser)
Now, those of you who have been paying attention should have noticed that I’m sitting here saying that the Non-AQ conferences were both winners and losers. No, that’s not a typo, they were. Yes, they got two teams in. Yes, they had two teams beat up on inferior opponents; finish undefeated, and nearly put one in the National Championship Game. How can they also be losers? The Fiesta Bowl took them both. The Non-AQ conferences are on a very long quest for respect right now and they have not yet achieved their end goal. They took a big step forward last year when Utah raced out to a 21-0 lead and coasted to a 31-17 win over an Alabama team that was in the top 5 for most of the year and was considered a leading contender for the national title. This year, TCU and Boise State have both lost the opportunity Utah had last year because they play each other.
What the Non-AQ conferences needed was a pair of match-ups like Utah had last year. A perfect scenario would have been TCU vs. Texas (if they had lost the Big XII title game) and Boise State against Florida. If this scenario had played out and both had won, the case of the AQ conferences to keep the format the way it is would have been seriously weakened. As it is, no matter who wins, they can claim a share of the national title all they want and nobody will listen. TCU played the 84th hardest schedule and Boise State played the 98th toughest schedule. Any team worth its salt should go undefeated given those schedules. Even with a big win in the Fiesta Bowl, their resume won’t even compare with Cincinnati’s (assuming a Bearcats win) given their conference and their strength of schedule.
Both Boise State and TCU needed a signature victory upon which to build next year. If either of these teams had beaten #5 Florida in, say, the Sugar Bowl, I have little doubt they would have been ranked in the top ten preseason in 2010, poised for a run towards a national championship. The Fiesta Bowl prevented any of that from coming to pass.
The BCS bowls this year should be good, specifically the Fiesta Bowl and the National Championship game. There are many winners and losers but in my opinion, the positive aspects of this year’s BCS selections far outweigh the negatives.
Let the countdown begin!
Only 26 days left…
First, the winners.
WINNERS
Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences
The first “winners” are the little guys. For the first time in the 12 year history of the BCS, two teams from outside the AQ (automatic qualifying) conferences will play in a BCS bowl and bring a $12-15 million paycheck back to their conferences. Both Boise State and TCU benefited from the fact that perennial powers Oklahoma and USC both had down years at the same time. Had either of those schools performed to their 2008 level, one of the two, in all likelihood Boise State, would have been left out of the BCS party.
The SEC
For the second consecutive year, the SEC Championship Game was essentially a national semifinal game with the winner heading to the BCS National Championship Game. Last year it was #3 Florida beating #1 Alabama 31-20 and then winning the national title and this year, #2 Alabama manhandles #1 Florida 32-13 and will be playing for the national title. There is still the perception that while the rest of the SEC may be down and not playing its best football of the past decade, the conference is still loaded at the top. On top of that, when you take into account the incredible depth of young talent that Alabama has, the country may have traded one SEC juggernaut (Florida) for another.
The Fiesta Bowl
For the first time in the BCS era, two undefeated teams will square off in a game that will not determine the national champion. The Fiesta Bowl will feature #4 TCU (12-0) against #6 Boise State (13-0). We can only hope that the game lives up to their bowl meeting last year, one in which TCU pulled out a 17-16 victory.
Now, the flip side of the coin…
LOSERS
The Big XII
Coming into this year the storylines surrounding the Big XII were even better than those in the SEC. Two Heisman Trophy finalists (and one winner), the infamous tie-breaker situation last year, and two teams loaded and ready to compete for the division, the conference, and the crystal football. All of those expectations came crashing back down to earth in the first game of Oklahoma’s season, when they not only lost to BYU, but also lost Heisman winning quarterback Sam Bradford to a shoulder injury. He attempted to come back later in the season but played little before re-aggravating the injury and then being lost for the season, not to return to Norman, Oklahoma.
It’s hard to call a conference a loser when one of its teams is playing for the national title but compared to 2008, this season has been a disappointing one outside of Austin, Texas. After Oklahoma’s loss to BYU, it’s been a longshot for the Big XII to get two BCS berths. Towards the end of the season, it looked decent for Oklahoma State, but losing to the Sooners 27-0 in the regular season finale ended any of those thoughts. Last year, all people could talk about was which conference was better between the Big XII and the SEC and for most people, it came down to where you were from. This year it hasn’t been close and with the departure of Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, the Big XII will need to reload to be relevant in that conversation again.
The Pac-10
The SEC may have been the best conference at the top but there is no question in my mind which conference was the best from top to bottom. Only one team lost fewer than 4 games (conference champion Oregon, at 10-2) but consider this. The lowest ranked strength of schedule in the Pac-10 was Arizona State, whose schedule was ranked 24th by Jeff Sagarin. Conference champion Oregon’s schedule was rated as the 4th toughest in the nation, easily the most difficult of the 10 BCS Bowl participants. This is mainly due to two things; tough out-of-conference scheduling and a tough conference. Put another way, below are the 8 conferences that will be participating in BCS bowls and their three toughest schedules this year according to Jeff Sagarin with their national ranks.
ACC – Florida State (3), Virginia (6), Virginia Tech (11)
Big East – West Virginia (33), Connecticut (36), Syracuse (39)
Big Ten – Minnesota (30), Illinois (38), Purdue (46)
Big XII – Oklahoma (31), Colorado (32), Baylor 34)
Mountain West – New Mexico (55), Wyoming (57), Colorado State (64)
Pac-10 – Washington State (1), Washington (2), Oregon (4)
SEC – Georgia (5), South Carolina (7), Mississippi State (8)
WAC – San Jose State (54), Utah State (65), Louisiana Tech (72)
How does this make the Pac-10 losers? Top heavy conferences produce undefeated records and send teams to the BCS bowls and maybe even the national title game. While a Rose Bowl bid goes to a very deserving Oregon team, there has never been any discussion of a second Pac-10 team in the BCS because they beat each other up in conference play. Only one team had fewer than 3 conference losses this year in the Pac-10. Last year, there were three Big XII teams with one loss and both last year and this year, two SEC teams finished their regular seasons undefeated. This helps because the Ducks will be favored in the Rose Bowl. This hurts because they’re the only ones playing the BCS.
Lastly, there in one winner and one loser that are so closely linked that they have to be separate from the rest of this discussion.
Automatic Qualifying Conferences (winner) and Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences (loser)
Now, those of you who have been paying attention should have noticed that I’m sitting here saying that the Non-AQ conferences were both winners and losers. No, that’s not a typo, they were. Yes, they got two teams in. Yes, they had two teams beat up on inferior opponents; finish undefeated, and nearly put one in the National Championship Game. How can they also be losers? The Fiesta Bowl took them both. The Non-AQ conferences are on a very long quest for respect right now and they have not yet achieved their end goal. They took a big step forward last year when Utah raced out to a 21-0 lead and coasted to a 31-17 win over an Alabama team that was in the top 5 for most of the year and was considered a leading contender for the national title. This year, TCU and Boise State have both lost the opportunity Utah had last year because they play each other.
What the Non-AQ conferences needed was a pair of match-ups like Utah had last year. A perfect scenario would have been TCU vs. Texas (if they had lost the Big XII title game) and Boise State against Florida. If this scenario had played out and both had won, the case of the AQ conferences to keep the format the way it is would have been seriously weakened. As it is, no matter who wins, they can claim a share of the national title all they want and nobody will listen. TCU played the 84th hardest schedule and Boise State played the 98th toughest schedule. Any team worth its salt should go undefeated given those schedules. Even with a big win in the Fiesta Bowl, their resume won’t even compare with Cincinnati’s (assuming a Bearcats win) given their conference and their strength of schedule.
Both Boise State and TCU needed a signature victory upon which to build next year. If either of these teams had beaten #5 Florida in, say, the Sugar Bowl, I have little doubt they would have been ranked in the top ten preseason in 2010, poised for a run towards a national championship. The Fiesta Bowl prevented any of that from coming to pass.
The BCS bowls this year should be good, specifically the Fiesta Bowl and the National Championship game. There are many winners and losers but in my opinion, the positive aspects of this year’s BCS selections far outweigh the negatives.
Let the countdown begin!
Only 26 days left…
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