Winners and Losers of BCS '10

The BCS field is set and the countdown has begun until January 7th, when Alabama and Texas will meet to decide the champion for the 2009 season. With the regular season over and the bowl season to come, it is time to look back and determine the winners and the losers from the season.

First, the winners.

WINNERS

Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences

The first “winners” are the little guys. For the first time in the 12 year history of the BCS, two teams from outside the AQ (automatic qualifying) conferences will play in a BCS bowl and bring a $12-15 million paycheck back to their conferences. Both Boise State and TCU benefited from the fact that perennial powers Oklahoma and USC both had down years at the same time. Had either of those schools performed to their 2008 level, one of the two, in all likelihood Boise State, would have been left out of the BCS party.

The SEC

For the second consecutive year, the SEC Championship Game was essentially a national semifinal game with the winner heading to the BCS National Championship Game. Last year it was #3 Florida beating #1 Alabama 31-20 and then winning the national title and this year, #2 Alabama manhandles #1 Florida 32-13 and will be playing for the national title. There is still the perception that while the rest of the SEC may be down and not playing its best football of the past decade, the conference is still loaded at the top. On top of that, when you take into account the incredible depth of young talent that Alabama has, the country may have traded one SEC juggernaut (Florida) for another.

The Fiesta Bowl

For the first time in the BCS era, two undefeated teams will square off in a game that will not determine the national champion. The Fiesta Bowl will feature #4 TCU (12-0) against #6 Boise State (13-0). We can only hope that the game lives up to their bowl meeting last year, one in which TCU pulled out a 17-16 victory.

Now, the flip side of the coin…

LOSERS

The Big XII

Coming into this year the storylines surrounding the Big XII were even better than those in the SEC. Two Heisman Trophy finalists (and one winner), the infamous tie-breaker situation last year, and two teams loaded and ready to compete for the division, the conference, and the crystal football. All of those expectations came crashing back down to earth in the first game of Oklahoma’s season, when they not only lost to BYU, but also lost Heisman winning quarterback Sam Bradford to a shoulder injury. He attempted to come back later in the season but played little before re-aggravating the injury and then being lost for the season, not to return to Norman, Oklahoma.

It’s hard to call a conference a loser when one of its teams is playing for the national title but compared to 2008, this season has been a disappointing one outside of Austin, Texas. After Oklahoma’s loss to BYU, it’s been a longshot for the Big XII to get two BCS berths. Towards the end of the season, it looked decent for Oklahoma State, but losing to the Sooners 27-0 in the regular season finale ended any of those thoughts. Last year, all people could talk about was which conference was better between the Big XII and the SEC and for most people, it came down to where you were from. This year it hasn’t been close and with the departure of Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, the Big XII will need to reload to be relevant in that conversation again.

The Pac-10

The SEC may have been the best conference at the top but there is no question in my mind which conference was the best from top to bottom. Only one team lost fewer than 4 games (conference champion Oregon, at 10-2) but consider this. The lowest ranked strength of schedule in the Pac-10 was Arizona State, whose schedule was ranked 24th by Jeff Sagarin. Conference champion Oregon’s schedule was rated as the 4th toughest in the nation, easily the most difficult of the 10 BCS Bowl participants. This is mainly due to two things; tough out-of-conference scheduling and a tough conference. Put another way, below are the 8 conferences that will be participating in BCS bowls and their three toughest schedules this year according to Jeff Sagarin with their national ranks.

ACC – Florida State (3), Virginia (6), Virginia Tech (11)
Big East – West Virginia (33), Connecticut (36), Syracuse (39)
Big Ten – Minnesota (30), Illinois (38), Purdue (46)
Big XII – Oklahoma (31), Colorado (32), Baylor 34)
Mountain West – New Mexico (55), Wyoming (57), Colorado State (64)
Pac-10 – Washington State (1), Washington (2), Oregon (4)
SEC – Georgia (5), South Carolina (7), Mississippi State (8)
WAC – San Jose State (54), Utah State (65), Louisiana Tech (72)

How does this make the Pac-10 losers? Top heavy conferences produce undefeated records and send teams to the BCS bowls and maybe even the national title game. While a Rose Bowl bid goes to a very deserving Oregon team, there has never been any discussion of a second Pac-10 team in the BCS because they beat each other up in conference play. Only one team had fewer than 3 conference losses this year in the Pac-10. Last year, there were three Big XII teams with one loss and both last year and this year, two SEC teams finished their regular seasons undefeated. This helps because the Ducks will be favored in the Rose Bowl. This hurts because they’re the only ones playing the BCS.

Lastly, there in one winner and one loser that are so closely linked that they have to be separate from the rest of this discussion.

Automatic Qualifying Conferences (winner) and Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences (loser)

Now, those of you who have been paying attention should have noticed that I’m sitting here saying that the Non-AQ conferences were both winners and losers. No, that’s not a typo, they were. Yes, they got two teams in. Yes, they had two teams beat up on inferior opponents; finish undefeated, and nearly put one in the National Championship Game. How can they also be losers? The Fiesta Bowl took them both. The Non-AQ conferences are on a very long quest for respect right now and they have not yet achieved their end goal. They took a big step forward last year when Utah raced out to a 21-0 lead and coasted to a 31-17 win over an Alabama team that was in the top 5 for most of the year and was considered a leading contender for the national title. This year, TCU and Boise State have both lost the opportunity Utah had last year because they play each other.

What the Non-AQ conferences needed was a pair of match-ups like Utah had last year. A perfect scenario would have been TCU vs. Texas (if they had lost the Big XII title game) and Boise State against Florida. If this scenario had played out and both had won, the case of the AQ conferences to keep the format the way it is would have been seriously weakened. As it is, no matter who wins, they can claim a share of the national title all they want and nobody will listen. TCU played the 84th hardest schedule and Boise State played the 98th toughest schedule. Any team worth its salt should go undefeated given those schedules. Even with a big win in the Fiesta Bowl, their resume won’t even compare with Cincinnati’s (assuming a Bearcats win) given their conference and their strength of schedule.

Both Boise State and TCU needed a signature victory upon which to build next year. If either of these teams had beaten #5 Florida in, say, the Sugar Bowl, I have little doubt they would have been ranked in the top ten preseason in 2010, poised for a run towards a national championship. The Fiesta Bowl prevented any of that from coming to pass.


The BCS bowls this year should be good, specifically the Fiesta Bowl and the National Championship game. There are many winners and losers but in my opinion, the positive aspects of this year’s BCS selections far outweigh the negatives.

Let the countdown begin!

Only 26 days left…