Don’t worry, there is no nudity in the course of this blog post.
Last Tuesday, the 20th ranked Seminoles of Florida State went on the road to battle the top ranked Huskies of Connecticut. Instead of a good game, the crowd was treated to a laugher as the Huskies won going away, 93-62. However, the crowd of 16,294 did see history that night as the UConn women set the record for the longest winning streak in Division 1 basketball history (men’s or women’s), surpassing the 88 game winning streak reeled off by the men of UCLA from 1971-1974.
It seemed like it took mere minutes after the Huskies won their 89th straight game for the comparisons to start coming in. Was UCLA’s streak more impressive than UConn’s? As was noted, in their 90 games, UConn played 16 teams ranked in the top 25 (UCLA played 12) and five times, they played and defeated the #2 team in the country.
At this point I could go deep into the numbers, examining the star players of both teams and how well their offenses and defenses performed and try (somehow) to create a formula to accurately depict the difference between men’s and women’s college basketball. However, I didn’t. Just to be clear, it wasn’t because I looked into it and determined it was too hard. It was because in all my years of following basketball, I have come to the conclusion that while they are playing by basically the same rules, men and women at the same age level (high school, college, or pros) are very nearly playing two different sports.
How many seven footers either played for UCLA or against UCLA during that streak? Now, same question but this time for UConn instead of UCLA?
No, I didn’t just come to the conclusion that men are, on average, taller than women. However, it changes the way that the game is played. Over the last 36 years, several rule changes have come about which again changed the way the game is played. For instance, when UCLA was on their run of dominance, the lane was much narrower than it is today, favoring the first few seven footers the sport saw. Along with making it much wider (due mostly to the contributions of Wilt Chamberlain and UCLA alum Lew Alcindor), in 1986 the NCAA universally incorporated the three point field goal. These differences, along with the most basic difference of gender, make this question a classic case of comparing apples to oranges.
In my opinion, UCLA’s streak of 88 straight wins is incredibly impressive and so is UConn’s streak of 90 straight wins. However, one does not diminish the other and I don’t think that they can be directly compared with one another.
The purpose of this post is not to compare or contrast, but rather to celebrate various streaks performed by both teams and individuals and near the end, if you’re lucky, I might just take a stand and say what I think is the most impressive sporting streak amongst these select few.
It should be noted that I limited myself mostly to sports that I have a knowledge base about. I apologize to all of you hockey fans out there but I have a very difficult time speaking intelligently about hockey. When I list these streaks within their respective headings, please bear in mind that my listing is random and has nothing to do with what I think might be more impressive.
Without further adieu…
BASKETBALL
Connecticut
90 games
11/18/08 to 12/30/10
UCLA
88 games
1/30/71 to 1/19/74
Honestly the only reason that I can possibly say that the Bruins streak is more impressive is that it lasted longer. In the 70’s, the Bruins played 30 games pretty much every year and that included the NCAA tournament. In each of the last two years, UConn has played 33 games in the regular season and then another 6 in the tournament. All this means is that UCLA’s streak lasted a total of 1,085 days over 4 different seasons (against 768 and 3 for UConn). What this means is that in the world of college sports, John Wooden had to turn over a quarter of his roster one more time that Auriemma did in Connecticut.
I know, it’s flimsy. Honestly, at this point that is all that separates these streaks in my mind. Both are outstanding accomplishments although if push came to shove and they were ever able to play each other, I doubt Auriemma’s Huskies would have an answer for the all-time leading scorer in NBA history.
Los Angeles Lakers
33 games
11/5/71 to 1/7/72
What makes this one amazing is where it stands compared to other winning streaks in NBA history. The season before this one, the Milwaukee Bucks had tied the longest ever winning streak by winning 20 in a row. The Lakers won 33 and since then, only the 07-08 Rockets have come close and they still fell 11 short.
To put that in perspective, the Lakers record for wins in a season, set that season (with a 69-13 record) was broken by the 95-96 Chicago Bulls. Those Bulls started the season 41-3, they went 33-8 on the road and 39-2 at home. They also finished a streak of 44 consecutive wins at home and won their first 37 home games of the year.
The Bulls longest winning streak that season? 18 games.
FOOTBALL
New England Patriots
21 games
10/5/03 to 10/31/04
Starting in Week 5 of the 2003 season, the Patriots won each of their final 12 games, then all three games in the playoffs (capturing their second Super Bowl title along the way), and their first 6 games of the 2004 season.
University of Oklahoma
47 games
10/10/53 to 11/16/57
In this day and age of the BCS, this number seems truly ludicrous and that’s mostly because it is. The remarkable part of this streak is guys who played as freshmen when the streak started in 1953 would have graduated by the time the streak ended in 1957. This becomes more impressive when you take into account that most freshmen didn’t play either football or basketball and were thus only three year players. Therefore, if you assume no freshmen played for Bud Wilkinson’s teams, he would have had to turn over his roster entirely. Even if freshmen played for him, they could not possibly have played through the entire streak because it spanned across five seasons.
In the past ten years, we’ve seen two teams with identical 34 game winning streaks, Miami (FL) and USC. Both had a late season run in year number one, an undefeated national title team in year two, and a team that lost in the national championship game in year three. And yet, both of them would have had to go undefeated their next season just to match Oklahoma.
BASEBALL
New York Giants
26 games
9/7/16 to 9/30/16
The thing that is impressive about the Giants streak and indeed about baseball streaks in general that no other sport can match is in Major League Baseball, there are virtually no practice days. Every day is a game day. I understand that physically you have to be much tougher to play in the NFL than to play Major League Baseball but riddle me this: If an NFL quarterback has a really bad day on a Tuesday, what happens? Well, he struggles through practice and goes to bed early instead of going out on the town and by the time he plays his next game, that bad day is a memory. If a big league pitcher has a bad Tuesday, what happens? He gives up seven runs in the first inning and gets sent to the minor leagues and with diminished confidence, never makes it back to the majors. You have to be very physically tough to play professional football but you have to be very mentally tough to play professional baseball.
People probably should have seen the handwriting on the wall with this team because from May 9th to May 29th, the Giants played the first 17 games of a 21 game road trip… and won 17 straight. In the interest of full disclosure it should be mentioned that their winning streak in September was played entirely on their home field but that’s the way things were done in 1916.
The Giants streak encompassed 24 days, only five of which were off days. More remarkable, the Giants swept 8 doubleheaders (including three in a four day stretch) on their way to 26 straight wins.
OTHER
Byron Nelson
11 PGA Tour events
1945
This is one of those streaks that will probably never be broken because there is too much competition on the PGA Tour. Tiger Woods is the best golfer of his generation by a long shot and he couldn’t even come within a month of tying Nelson’s streak.
Cael Sanderson
159 straight matches
1998-2002
I don’t know too much about wrestling but I do know that a record of 159-0 and four national championships speaks for itself.
Edwin Moses
122 straight races won
9/2/77 to 6/4/87
What makes this streak so remarkable is the fact that it spanned nearly 10 years. How many individual athletes can stay at the top of their field for ten years? Also, it wasn’t just that he was the best, he didn’t lose.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST
Every winning streak is impressive in its own way. College streaks are impressive (for team sports) because the personnel and sometimes the coaching staff are changing on an annual basis. Professional streaks are impressive because they are done against the best that sport has to offer, usually worldwide. However, the most impressive winning streak in my humble opinion lasted 132 years.
No, you didn’t misread that; 132 years. Any of you who are familiar with this streak already know what I’m talking about. For the rest of you, I give you; The America’s Cup.
It was actually a common misconception that the sailing race was named after the country that seemed unable to lose this trophy but actually, it was named after the America, the first yacht to win the Cup. Over the subsequent 132 years and 24 defenses, the United States always brought home the Cup until Australia ended the run of dominance in 1983.
Since losing it, the Cup has come back to the US only once before legal wrangling allowed the Golden Gate Yacht Club to challenge for the cup earlier this year, winning it back 2-0.
To give you an idea about how lengthy this run has been, the first skipper ever to lose the Cup for the US (Dennis Connor) was born 91 years after the America first won the Cup.
Am I right? Maybe, maybe not. Part of the fun in sports is the debate and that is one of my favorite parts. Check back later (maybe this weekend) for another edition of Gone Streaking (Player Edition).
Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, and (sigh, again) Michael Vick
Once again, I’m directed back to my soapbox by the writing talents of Jemelle Hill, a periodic contributor to espn.com since she joined ESPN in 2006 and once again, Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick featured prominently in her writing and this time she threw in Brett Favre as the (very old) cherry on top.
Before I go any further, I want to throw out a small disclaimer. First of all, I never read a particular writer’s work simply to disagree with them. I’ve listened to Hill on various sports talk shows on ESPN and found her to be a person fully capable of speaking intelligently about sports. I am singling out her articles because they hit very definite nerves with me and for all I know, that might be the point. Lastly (for the disclaimer part, that is) I do believe that sexism and racism exist in the world today and they do exist in the world of sports. I also believe that legitimate claims of both racism and sexism are lost in the uproar of false claims which is nothing short of sad. I have been required to take sexual harassment classes at every job that I have worked, including especially intense classes when I became a supervisor as well as in my current job where I am a government contractor. Nothing I’m about to say should give you the impression that I am “ok” with sexual harassment. I’m not; end of story.
DONOVAN MCNABB
My first issue that I’d like to discuss is related to Hill’s article of December 28th (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/commentary/news/story?id=5963154) in which she talks about the situation that Donovan McNabb finds himself in with the Washington Redskins and my issue is very simple. Hill explains very eloquently the pickle that McNabb put himself in by signing a huge (fluffy) contract extension with the Redskins. However, when she talks about why McNabb has been supplanted as the starting quarterback of the Redskins, she never mentions race. She cites what head coach Mike Shanahan and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan said about McNabb, saying he lacked the “cardiovascular endurance” and “familiarity” to run their two-minute offense.
I only bring this up because Hill dedicated an entire article to talking about black quarterbacks in the NFL and mostly spoke about Donovan McNabb. Granted, Vince Young was mentioned as was Jason Campbell but neither of them have the track record of McNabb and he was the one that Hill focused on.
So, in a nutshell, which is it? Is Donovan McNabb struggling this year because he is playing for a new coach in a new system for a team that isn’t very good? Probably. Did he get benched, not once but twice, because he was black? I will readily admit that it is possible because I don’t know if Mike Shanahan is racist or not; I’ve never met him. However, I find it far more likely that he was benched the first time for his struggles and not his skin color.
Hill very explicitly said that she was not calling anyone out as being racist when she wrote about black quarterbacks a while ago but when it comes to the situation that McNabb is in now, she didn’t even mention that factor. I sincerely hope and believe that his situation has nothing to do with race. He’s been one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL for a decade and he’s having one of his worst seasons as a professional. Is it a coincidence that he went from a team that had a combined winning percentage of .616 (108-67-1) during his time in the NFL to one that has had a winning percentage of .455 (80-96) over that same time span?
BRETT FAVRE
Ah yes, the guy that Roger Goodell wants to see play forever… and at the same time, wants him out the door as soon as possible. There is little question in my mind that Brett Favre is a diva. He is also one of the best quarterbacks ever to pick up a football. The last few years have exemplified his “me-first” mentality and along the way, he has had three different head coaches fired in his last three seasons with three different franchises. Coincidence? Umm, if you think it is, I can get you a really good deal on a brand new…
Never mind.
Last year Favre was fantastic for the NFL at large and specifically the Minnesota Vikings who haven’t had a decent quarterback since Daunte Culpepper’s last season in 2004. Every team stacked the box against Adrian Peterson and before he knew it, Favre was facing man coverage in the secondary with linebackers and linemen intent on hitting Peterson. In short, it was the best possible situation for him to be in and he exploited it like the first ballot Hall-of-Famer he is. He had the best season of his illustrious career.
And then he had to be convinced to come back for this season (this was warning flag number one for me). Secondly, everything went right for the Vikings last year until they ran into the Saints. The odds of replicating that success were slim (warning flag number 2). Lastly, Favre was a year older and it was no secret that he and head coach Brad Childress didn’t really see eye to eye (number 3).
This season has been a train wreck for the Vikings but there is hope for the future. Rookie QB Joe Webb started against the Eagles and played a fantastic game and Brett Favre is retiring. Put those together with a solid defense and running game, and they’ll be competitive again next year (although with a healthy Packers team, the Bears, and the Lions return to respectability, it will be very hard for the Vikings to come out of this division).
Then, to add an ocean full of salt to Brett Favre’s numerous wounds, back in October the NFL began its investigation into the “sexting” allegations leveled against Favre by former Jets employee Jenn Sterger. This investigation came to a head yesterday when the NFL fined Favre $50,000 (or how much he earns for 3 minutes of game time this year) for failing to cooperate with the commissioner’s office in this investigation. This brings me back to Hill and the article she wrote for espn.com today. In a word, Hill was outraged at the insufficient punishment handed down by Commissioner Goodell and said that his credibility in matters of “player conduct” was less than before this ruling.
Here’s the problem; “The league said it couldn't determine whether the inappropriate images originated from Favre during his tenure as Jets quarterback.” That is right from Hill’s article. They couldn’t determine, beyond a reasonable doubt, that Favre was indeed the one harassing Sterger. Should he be punished if we’re not even sure whether or not he was the one who did it? That doesn’t seem quite right…
I have a cell phone and have had one for several years. In the state of Colorado (where I live) it is illegal to text while driving so there have been numerous occasions where I will receive a text and then hand my phone to my passenger so they can read me the text and then reply. Is it my phone? Yes. Do I pay bills for its monthly usage? Yes. When my passenger has my phone am I in control of what gets sent out? Absolutely not.
According to the NFL (and common sense) we have no way of knowing exactly who it was that sent the picture messages to Sterger unless we have a witness who is willing to come forth. Even then, would that testimony stand up in a court of law? That is dicey…
I am deadest against sexual harassment but I am even more against miscarriages of justice and to punish someone without that evidence is exactly that; a miscarriage of justice. To contrast this case with the highly publicized case of Adam “Pacman” Jones, Jones had several chances to shape up his act and failed to do so, resulting in a huge suspension without ever having been charged with a crime. As far as we know, up until this point, Favre has only been guilty of being a diva and has not been implicated in any other crimes… which brings us to yet another point. Sterger’s case shouldn’t be against Favre, it should be against her employers, the New York Jets and by extension, the NFL.
When sexual harassment cases come about in the business world, the most the harasser can face is termination of employment. If the employer fails to act appropriately, they can be held liable in civil court. In my opinion, Brett Favre was fined for two reasons; one, he wasn’t as forthcoming as Goodell thought he should have been and two, the NFL needed a scapegoat to try and avoid a lawsuit from Sterger.
I have two more points before I sign off and one of them, I will admit, is semantics. The NFL released a statement saying that Favre was being fined for "a failure to cooperate with the investigation in a forthcoming manner" and that Favre was "not candid in several respects during the investigation resulting in a longer review and additional negative public attention for Favre, Sterger and the NFL." Immediately after putting forth that quote, Hill says that this is a “very fancy way of saying that Favre lied”. Really? Where did the NFL say that he lied?
“Not being forthcoming” and “not candid” are not necessarily synonyms of “lying”. I’m not trying to get into a war of words with Hill (which she will certainly win), I’m simply trying to state that acting as if a person is innocent until proven guilty is a good thing and since the NFL has no absolute proof that Favre is guilty of these allegations, what more can they do? Make an example of him when this would be his first run-in with the league? No.
Lastly, Hill compares this duplicity to Michael Vick’s duplicity at the NFL draft several years ago when Goodell asked him if there was any truth to the rumors of his involvement in dogfighting rings. When asked, Vick said no. Goodell then tacked a short suspension onto the tail end of Vick’s prison sentence for that lie. The big difference here is simply that Goodell has no proof that Favre lied. Shortly after Vick said no to the Commissioner, he was indicted, tried, convicted, and incarcerated for the crimes he lied about. NONE of that has happened yet to Favre.
You may or may not believe it but I gave Vick the benefit of the doubt when he said that he had nothing to do with it. Maybe it really was happening on one of his properties without his knowledge. I don’t think it’s too much to ask to give Favre that same benefit of the doubt.
Did Favre simply lie and then get away with it because it’s impossible to verify whether he did or not? Maybe, but until it can be proven, the word “alleged” still belongs in any sentence relating Favre to this harassment. There is nothing “alleged” about what Michael Vick did.
It would be going too far to call Brett Favre a hero of mine but I have enjoyed following his career over the past 15 years or so that I’ve been truly cognizant of the NFL. If there’s one way I can sum up those years, between players getting shot and killed in nightclubs or Vick helping to torture and murder dogs or Favre sending pictures of his endowment to female co-workers without their consent, it’s this:
The NFL’s off-the-field shenanigans are threatening the on-the-field product. I sincerely believe that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is trying and I have one message and challenge for him:
Try harder…
Before I go any further, I want to throw out a small disclaimer. First of all, I never read a particular writer’s work simply to disagree with them. I’ve listened to Hill on various sports talk shows on ESPN and found her to be a person fully capable of speaking intelligently about sports. I am singling out her articles because they hit very definite nerves with me and for all I know, that might be the point. Lastly (for the disclaimer part, that is) I do believe that sexism and racism exist in the world today and they do exist in the world of sports. I also believe that legitimate claims of both racism and sexism are lost in the uproar of false claims which is nothing short of sad. I have been required to take sexual harassment classes at every job that I have worked, including especially intense classes when I became a supervisor as well as in my current job where I am a government contractor. Nothing I’m about to say should give you the impression that I am “ok” with sexual harassment. I’m not; end of story.
DONOVAN MCNABB
My first issue that I’d like to discuss is related to Hill’s article of December 28th (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/commentary/news/story?id=5963154) in which she talks about the situation that Donovan McNabb finds himself in with the Washington Redskins and my issue is very simple. Hill explains very eloquently the pickle that McNabb put himself in by signing a huge (fluffy) contract extension with the Redskins. However, when she talks about why McNabb has been supplanted as the starting quarterback of the Redskins, she never mentions race. She cites what head coach Mike Shanahan and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan said about McNabb, saying he lacked the “cardiovascular endurance” and “familiarity” to run their two-minute offense.
I only bring this up because Hill dedicated an entire article to talking about black quarterbacks in the NFL and mostly spoke about Donovan McNabb. Granted, Vince Young was mentioned as was Jason Campbell but neither of them have the track record of McNabb and he was the one that Hill focused on.
So, in a nutshell, which is it? Is Donovan McNabb struggling this year because he is playing for a new coach in a new system for a team that isn’t very good? Probably. Did he get benched, not once but twice, because he was black? I will readily admit that it is possible because I don’t know if Mike Shanahan is racist or not; I’ve never met him. However, I find it far more likely that he was benched the first time for his struggles and not his skin color.
Hill very explicitly said that she was not calling anyone out as being racist when she wrote about black quarterbacks a while ago but when it comes to the situation that McNabb is in now, she didn’t even mention that factor. I sincerely hope and believe that his situation has nothing to do with race. He’s been one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL for a decade and he’s having one of his worst seasons as a professional. Is it a coincidence that he went from a team that had a combined winning percentage of .616 (108-67-1) during his time in the NFL to one that has had a winning percentage of .455 (80-96) over that same time span?
BRETT FAVRE
Ah yes, the guy that Roger Goodell wants to see play forever… and at the same time, wants him out the door as soon as possible. There is little question in my mind that Brett Favre is a diva. He is also one of the best quarterbacks ever to pick up a football. The last few years have exemplified his “me-first” mentality and along the way, he has had three different head coaches fired in his last three seasons with three different franchises. Coincidence? Umm, if you think it is, I can get you a really good deal on a brand new…
Never mind.
Last year Favre was fantastic for the NFL at large and specifically the Minnesota Vikings who haven’t had a decent quarterback since Daunte Culpepper’s last season in 2004. Every team stacked the box against Adrian Peterson and before he knew it, Favre was facing man coverage in the secondary with linebackers and linemen intent on hitting Peterson. In short, it was the best possible situation for him to be in and he exploited it like the first ballot Hall-of-Famer he is. He had the best season of his illustrious career.
And then he had to be convinced to come back for this season (this was warning flag number one for me). Secondly, everything went right for the Vikings last year until they ran into the Saints. The odds of replicating that success were slim (warning flag number 2). Lastly, Favre was a year older and it was no secret that he and head coach Brad Childress didn’t really see eye to eye (number 3).
This season has been a train wreck for the Vikings but there is hope for the future. Rookie QB Joe Webb started against the Eagles and played a fantastic game and Brett Favre is retiring. Put those together with a solid defense and running game, and they’ll be competitive again next year (although with a healthy Packers team, the Bears, and the Lions return to respectability, it will be very hard for the Vikings to come out of this division).
Then, to add an ocean full of salt to Brett Favre’s numerous wounds, back in October the NFL began its investigation into the “sexting” allegations leveled against Favre by former Jets employee Jenn Sterger. This investigation came to a head yesterday when the NFL fined Favre $50,000 (or how much he earns for 3 minutes of game time this year) for failing to cooperate with the commissioner’s office in this investigation. This brings me back to Hill and the article she wrote for espn.com today. In a word, Hill was outraged at the insufficient punishment handed down by Commissioner Goodell and said that his credibility in matters of “player conduct” was less than before this ruling.
Here’s the problem; “The league said it couldn't determine whether the inappropriate images originated from Favre during his tenure as Jets quarterback.” That is right from Hill’s article. They couldn’t determine, beyond a reasonable doubt, that Favre was indeed the one harassing Sterger. Should he be punished if we’re not even sure whether or not he was the one who did it? That doesn’t seem quite right…
I have a cell phone and have had one for several years. In the state of Colorado (where I live) it is illegal to text while driving so there have been numerous occasions where I will receive a text and then hand my phone to my passenger so they can read me the text and then reply. Is it my phone? Yes. Do I pay bills for its monthly usage? Yes. When my passenger has my phone am I in control of what gets sent out? Absolutely not.
According to the NFL (and common sense) we have no way of knowing exactly who it was that sent the picture messages to Sterger unless we have a witness who is willing to come forth. Even then, would that testimony stand up in a court of law? That is dicey…
I am deadest against sexual harassment but I am even more against miscarriages of justice and to punish someone without that evidence is exactly that; a miscarriage of justice. To contrast this case with the highly publicized case of Adam “Pacman” Jones, Jones had several chances to shape up his act and failed to do so, resulting in a huge suspension without ever having been charged with a crime. As far as we know, up until this point, Favre has only been guilty of being a diva and has not been implicated in any other crimes… which brings us to yet another point. Sterger’s case shouldn’t be against Favre, it should be against her employers, the New York Jets and by extension, the NFL.
When sexual harassment cases come about in the business world, the most the harasser can face is termination of employment. If the employer fails to act appropriately, they can be held liable in civil court. In my opinion, Brett Favre was fined for two reasons; one, he wasn’t as forthcoming as Goodell thought he should have been and two, the NFL needed a scapegoat to try and avoid a lawsuit from Sterger.
I have two more points before I sign off and one of them, I will admit, is semantics. The NFL released a statement saying that Favre was being fined for "a failure to cooperate with the investigation in a forthcoming manner" and that Favre was "not candid in several respects during the investigation resulting in a longer review and additional negative public attention for Favre, Sterger and the NFL." Immediately after putting forth that quote, Hill says that this is a “very fancy way of saying that Favre lied”. Really? Where did the NFL say that he lied?
“Not being forthcoming” and “not candid” are not necessarily synonyms of “lying”. I’m not trying to get into a war of words with Hill (which she will certainly win), I’m simply trying to state that acting as if a person is innocent until proven guilty is a good thing and since the NFL has no absolute proof that Favre is guilty of these allegations, what more can they do? Make an example of him when this would be his first run-in with the league? No.
Lastly, Hill compares this duplicity to Michael Vick’s duplicity at the NFL draft several years ago when Goodell asked him if there was any truth to the rumors of his involvement in dogfighting rings. When asked, Vick said no. Goodell then tacked a short suspension onto the tail end of Vick’s prison sentence for that lie. The big difference here is simply that Goodell has no proof that Favre lied. Shortly after Vick said no to the Commissioner, he was indicted, tried, convicted, and incarcerated for the crimes he lied about. NONE of that has happened yet to Favre.
You may or may not believe it but I gave Vick the benefit of the doubt when he said that he had nothing to do with it. Maybe it really was happening on one of his properties without his knowledge. I don’t think it’s too much to ask to give Favre that same benefit of the doubt.
Did Favre simply lie and then get away with it because it’s impossible to verify whether he did or not? Maybe, but until it can be proven, the word “alleged” still belongs in any sentence relating Favre to this harassment. There is nothing “alleged” about what Michael Vick did.
It would be going too far to call Brett Favre a hero of mine but I have enjoyed following his career over the past 15 years or so that I’ve been truly cognizant of the NFL. If there’s one way I can sum up those years, between players getting shot and killed in nightclubs or Vick helping to torture and murder dogs or Favre sending pictures of his endowment to female co-workers without their consent, it’s this:
The NFL’s off-the-field shenanigans are threatening the on-the-field product. I sincerely believe that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is trying and I have one message and challenge for him:
Try harder…
Saturday, December 18, 2010
BCS Preview 2011 - Moral Victories
There comes a point in the sporting career of certain people when their primary desire is to win and not to have fun. A good number of those people either play sports at a very high level or quit because they can’t make it to that high level and don’t win enough. For the rest of us mere mortals, we search for the moral victories within sporting events, the silver lining that makes the contest worth participating in despite the gut-wrenching loss.
If you ask the vast majority of quarterbacks in the NFL, would you rather throw for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns in a losing effort or throw for 100 yards and 5 interceptions, I’m willing to bet that they would say they’d rather have the latter. It is that desire to win above all else that makes them as good as they are.
So what is the silver lining for each of the five BCS bowl games? That is the question that I’m going to try to answer with one small addition. I’m going to describe a moral victory for each of the teams playing and then I’m also going to describe what a moral victory would be for college football fans at large. The one thing to remember though is when I’m talking about college football fans, I’m not talking about fans of the individual teams because it’s fairly obvious what a moral victory would be for those people; an actual victory.
For the most part, a moral victory for each individual team also includes actually outscoring their opponents come game day. However, there are some off the field factors at play in several of these match-ups that can lead to increased good feelings whether the outcome is a win or a loss.
ROSE BOWL
WISCONSIN
In a conference that has been dominated by Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, the Badgers have a chance to take a big step forward on the national stage. Their #5 ranking is the highest ranking they’ve had in the BCS era and their next game is against the #3 team in the country. If they win the Rose Bowl, their postseason ranking will be in the top four, if not third or even second, depending on the outcomes of the other BCS bowls.
Despite an overall record of 90-39 over the last ten years, the Badgers have won ten games only three times before this year and this is their first appearance in the Rose Bowl since January of 2001. Wisconsin has the chance to step to the forefront of the Big Ten by taking the conference title and winning what is arguably the most prestigious bowl game in college football.
TCU
The only match-up that could have been better for the Horned Frogs is either if they were playing in the national championship game or if they had drawn Ohio State in a BCS bowl. They happened to draw the only team this year to beat the Buckeyes and not only did Wisconsin beat the Buckeyes, they did it right after Ohio State had risen to #1 in the polls and they did it in a more humiliating manner than #1 teams are used to (31-18).
This is one of the few teams that doesn’t have to win to claim a moral victory. Wisconsin is playing some of the best football of the season, having outscored their last four opponents 235-84. All TCU has to do is play close to Wisconsin and they can make a logical inference that they played the Badgers just about as tough as the Buckeyes did back in the middle of October. If TCU can beat Wisconsin, it will be one last bit of egg on the face of E. Gorgon Gee, president of The Ohio State University. While the transitive law of sports doesn’t apply (just because A beats B and B beats C doesn’t mean that A is better than C), everyone will have to admit (no matter how begrudgingly) that TCU can play with any team in the country.
THE FANS
The silver lining is evenly divided for the fans. Some people want to see the imposter that is TCU lose and lose badly to prove that the five smaller conferences do not belong on the same stage as the six “automatic qualifier” conferences. Others want to see TCU lay a beat-down on Wisconsin to prove once and for all that teams from the smaller conference can compete with the best from the bigger conferences.
TCU has been one of the best teams from the non-AQ conferences for the last several years so some might say that if they don’t win and finish this season off undefeated, this year would be looked at as a disappointment. I completely disagree. They used this year, on top of the last few years, to get an invitation to join the Big East starting in 2012. Granted, I would have much rather seen them join the Big Used-To-Be-8-Then-12-Now-Is-10 or the Pac Used-To-Be-8-Then-10-Then-Almost-16-But-12-Instead, but now they never have to worry about being on the outside looking in simply because they play in the wrong conference.
This does bring up an interesting question though; is the best way to change a system from the outside looking in bringing the spotlight out onto the unfairness of the situation or is it to join the system and attempt to change it from the inside? Of the four teams that have made it to a BCS bowl from outside the 6 AQ conferences, two of them (TCU and Utah) have jumped ship and are joining the Big East and Pac-12, respectively. Interesting food for thought and perhaps another post in the future…
FIESTA BOWL
CONNECTICUT
The Huskies ranked behind 95 of the 120 FBS teams in total offense and behind 61 of them in scoring offense. A moral victory for them is not getting blown out. I hate to say it that way but considering that they went 8-4 this year and didn’t even have the best record in their own conference (West Virginia went 9-3) and that they are playing a team like Oklahoma, they are going to be huge underdogs and the fact of the matter is if they can keep the game close into the fourth quarter, they will have achieved a moral victory.
OKLAHOMA
There is virtually no way that Oklahoma can achieve a moral victory in this game. They are expected to win and they are expected to win big. The Sooners have nothing to win and everything to lose in this game. Unlike several years ago when they were facing off against Boise State, Connecticut is not going to be mistaken for one of the top ten teams in the country. Boise State was 12-0 going into that game and UConn’s 8-4 record is a far cry from the talent on that Broncos team.
ORANGE BOWL
VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies came into this season with legitimate aspirations to run the table in the ACC and challenge for the top two spots in the BCS standings. Those hopes weren’t even derailed with their opening night loss to #3 Boise State down the road from their Blacksburg, Virginia, campus. If everything went according to plan, after that game they would have finished the regular season 12-1 and would have been considered one of the best one-loss teams in the country. What really killed their lofty goals was their terrible loss to James Madison the week after losing to Boise State.
To rebound from those two losses and win 11 straight, becoming the first team to go 8-0 in ACC play, is a testament to the character of this team. To finish off this season with a win over a very good Stanford team would certainly help people forget how high their hopes were at the beginning of the season.
STANFORD
This season has already been a resounding success for the Cardinal and they currently have the hottest prospect for future NFL quarterbacks and future head coaches. Their only loss is to #2 Oregon that only lost their #1 ranking to Auburn because they played more ranked teams down the stretch. They will also be playing in just their second BCS bowl along with the 2000 Rose Bowl which they lost after an 8-3, Pac-10 champion season. They have already exceeded their expectations for this season and no matter how they do, this season will be a success.
SUGAR BOWL
OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes will be making their 6th consecutive BCS bowl appearance and their 9th in 13 years which, in and of itself, is a moral victory. They have been there and done that enough that they can’t really gain all that many points by not winning in a stylish manner. Their struggles against the SEC have been very well publicized and they are fresh out of excuses.
ARKANSAS
The fact that they are here is a moral victory. They survived their brutal SEC schedule to go 10-2 and get an at-large bid, their first BCS bowl appearance. This Ohio State team is a very good one so even if they don’t win and play well, it will still be considered a successful season. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain by beating Ohio State.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
AUBURN
Unfortunately, the biggest moral victory that Auburn can get is for the NCAA to close the investigation into Cam Newton’s pay-for-play controversy. They are ranked #1 in the country, they have the Heisman Trophy winner playing quarterback for them, and they seem to have everything in their favor right now. If we are assuming that they are going to lose the national title game, I would say the biggest thing they can do to achieve a moral victory would be to not get blown out. If their terribly porous pass defense and their stout run defense can put a stop to the Blur, it will be disappoint. If they can stop Oregon, they should win.
OREGON
The biggest consolation for the Ducks right now is with how poorly Auburn has been playing in the first halves and how well Cam Newton has been playing in the second halves, they are actually flying a little under the radar which intrigues me because Oregon is the better all around team and the better all around offense. Auburn goes as Newton goes but Oregon has multiple playmakers on offense to go to if any one of them aren’t having a great game. A month ago, I would have said that the oddsmakers would be favoring Oregon but after the Alabama game and then the SEC title game, I can definitely see them giving the nod to Auburn.
The Ducks have played outstanding offense and underrated defense while running the table in an underrated conference. Arguably the biggest moral victory that they could get would be the respect that the Pac-10 would gain if they and Stanford were able to win their bowl games. Take into account that some of their most prominent playmakers are underclassmen and you have to like where the Ducks are right now.
If you ask the vast majority of quarterbacks in the NFL, would you rather throw for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns in a losing effort or throw for 100 yards and 5 interceptions, I’m willing to bet that they would say they’d rather have the latter. It is that desire to win above all else that makes them as good as they are.
So what is the silver lining for each of the five BCS bowl games? That is the question that I’m going to try to answer with one small addition. I’m going to describe a moral victory for each of the teams playing and then I’m also going to describe what a moral victory would be for college football fans at large. The one thing to remember though is when I’m talking about college football fans, I’m not talking about fans of the individual teams because it’s fairly obvious what a moral victory would be for those people; an actual victory.
For the most part, a moral victory for each individual team also includes actually outscoring their opponents come game day. However, there are some off the field factors at play in several of these match-ups that can lead to increased good feelings whether the outcome is a win or a loss.
ROSE BOWL
WISCONSIN
In a conference that has been dominated by Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, the Badgers have a chance to take a big step forward on the national stage. Their #5 ranking is the highest ranking they’ve had in the BCS era and their next game is against the #3 team in the country. If they win the Rose Bowl, their postseason ranking will be in the top four, if not third or even second, depending on the outcomes of the other BCS bowls.
Despite an overall record of 90-39 over the last ten years, the Badgers have won ten games only three times before this year and this is their first appearance in the Rose Bowl since January of 2001. Wisconsin has the chance to step to the forefront of the Big Ten by taking the conference title and winning what is arguably the most prestigious bowl game in college football.
TCU
The only match-up that could have been better for the Horned Frogs is either if they were playing in the national championship game or if they had drawn Ohio State in a BCS bowl. They happened to draw the only team this year to beat the Buckeyes and not only did Wisconsin beat the Buckeyes, they did it right after Ohio State had risen to #1 in the polls and they did it in a more humiliating manner than #1 teams are used to (31-18).
This is one of the few teams that doesn’t have to win to claim a moral victory. Wisconsin is playing some of the best football of the season, having outscored their last four opponents 235-84. All TCU has to do is play close to Wisconsin and they can make a logical inference that they played the Badgers just about as tough as the Buckeyes did back in the middle of October. If TCU can beat Wisconsin, it will be one last bit of egg on the face of E. Gorgon Gee, president of The Ohio State University. While the transitive law of sports doesn’t apply (just because A beats B and B beats C doesn’t mean that A is better than C), everyone will have to admit (no matter how begrudgingly) that TCU can play with any team in the country.
THE FANS
The silver lining is evenly divided for the fans. Some people want to see the imposter that is TCU lose and lose badly to prove that the five smaller conferences do not belong on the same stage as the six “automatic qualifier” conferences. Others want to see TCU lay a beat-down on Wisconsin to prove once and for all that teams from the smaller conference can compete with the best from the bigger conferences.
TCU has been one of the best teams from the non-AQ conferences for the last several years so some might say that if they don’t win and finish this season off undefeated, this year would be looked at as a disappointment. I completely disagree. They used this year, on top of the last few years, to get an invitation to join the Big East starting in 2012. Granted, I would have much rather seen them join the Big Used-To-Be-8-Then-12-Now-Is-10 or the Pac Used-To-Be-8-Then-10-Then-Almost-16-But-12-Instead, but now they never have to worry about being on the outside looking in simply because they play in the wrong conference.
This does bring up an interesting question though; is the best way to change a system from the outside looking in bringing the spotlight out onto the unfairness of the situation or is it to join the system and attempt to change it from the inside? Of the four teams that have made it to a BCS bowl from outside the 6 AQ conferences, two of them (TCU and Utah) have jumped ship and are joining the Big East and Pac-12, respectively. Interesting food for thought and perhaps another post in the future…
FIESTA BOWL
CONNECTICUT
The Huskies ranked behind 95 of the 120 FBS teams in total offense and behind 61 of them in scoring offense. A moral victory for them is not getting blown out. I hate to say it that way but considering that they went 8-4 this year and didn’t even have the best record in their own conference (West Virginia went 9-3) and that they are playing a team like Oklahoma, they are going to be huge underdogs and the fact of the matter is if they can keep the game close into the fourth quarter, they will have achieved a moral victory.
OKLAHOMA
There is virtually no way that Oklahoma can achieve a moral victory in this game. They are expected to win and they are expected to win big. The Sooners have nothing to win and everything to lose in this game. Unlike several years ago when they were facing off against Boise State, Connecticut is not going to be mistaken for one of the top ten teams in the country. Boise State was 12-0 going into that game and UConn’s 8-4 record is a far cry from the talent on that Broncos team.
ORANGE BOWL
VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies came into this season with legitimate aspirations to run the table in the ACC and challenge for the top two spots in the BCS standings. Those hopes weren’t even derailed with their opening night loss to #3 Boise State down the road from their Blacksburg, Virginia, campus. If everything went according to plan, after that game they would have finished the regular season 12-1 and would have been considered one of the best one-loss teams in the country. What really killed their lofty goals was their terrible loss to James Madison the week after losing to Boise State.
To rebound from those two losses and win 11 straight, becoming the first team to go 8-0 in ACC play, is a testament to the character of this team. To finish off this season with a win over a very good Stanford team would certainly help people forget how high their hopes were at the beginning of the season.
STANFORD
This season has already been a resounding success for the Cardinal and they currently have the hottest prospect for future NFL quarterbacks and future head coaches. Their only loss is to #2 Oregon that only lost their #1 ranking to Auburn because they played more ranked teams down the stretch. They will also be playing in just their second BCS bowl along with the 2000 Rose Bowl which they lost after an 8-3, Pac-10 champion season. They have already exceeded their expectations for this season and no matter how they do, this season will be a success.
SUGAR BOWL
OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes will be making their 6th consecutive BCS bowl appearance and their 9th in 13 years which, in and of itself, is a moral victory. They have been there and done that enough that they can’t really gain all that many points by not winning in a stylish manner. Their struggles against the SEC have been very well publicized and they are fresh out of excuses.
ARKANSAS
The fact that they are here is a moral victory. They survived their brutal SEC schedule to go 10-2 and get an at-large bid, their first BCS bowl appearance. This Ohio State team is a very good one so even if they don’t win and play well, it will still be considered a successful season. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain by beating Ohio State.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
AUBURN
Unfortunately, the biggest moral victory that Auburn can get is for the NCAA to close the investigation into Cam Newton’s pay-for-play controversy. They are ranked #1 in the country, they have the Heisman Trophy winner playing quarterback for them, and they seem to have everything in their favor right now. If we are assuming that they are going to lose the national title game, I would say the biggest thing they can do to achieve a moral victory would be to not get blown out. If their terribly porous pass defense and their stout run defense can put a stop to the Blur, it will be disappoint. If they can stop Oregon, they should win.
OREGON
The biggest consolation for the Ducks right now is with how poorly Auburn has been playing in the first halves and how well Cam Newton has been playing in the second halves, they are actually flying a little under the radar which intrigues me because Oregon is the better all around team and the better all around offense. Auburn goes as Newton goes but Oregon has multiple playmakers on offense to go to if any one of them aren’t having a great game. A month ago, I would have said that the oddsmakers would be favoring Oregon but after the Alabama game and then the SEC title game, I can definitely see them giving the nod to Auburn.
The Ducks have played outstanding offense and underrated defense while running the table in an underrated conference. Arguably the biggest moral victory that they could get would be the respect that the Pac-10 would gain if they and Stanford were able to win their bowl games. Take into account that some of their most prominent playmakers are underclassmen and you have to like where the Ducks are right now.
BCS Preview 2011 - National Championship Game
The last game of the 2010-2011 bowl season has the potential to be one of the best national championship games ever. Unfortunately, this has been said before and the last “Greatest Game of All Time” turned into a laugher when Oklahoma got pounded by USC 55-19.
There have been several years over the history of the BCS where the participants in the title game were up for debate and few times have the two teams been the most obvious choices to square off for the hardware. With all due respect to TCU, this is one of those years. I do believe that TCU deserves a shot at the national title but given how they have played this year, I don’t think that TCU should be ranked ahead of either Auburn or Oregon. This game promises to provide plenty of fireworks as neither defense ended up as one of the top in the country while both offenses put up yards and points like few other teams in the country.
The backdrop to this match-up is the entire Cam Newton “Pay-For-Play” fiasco that embroiled the Tigers football program this year. I would love to believe the results of the investigation and say that Cam Newton had no knowledge of what his father was doing but it just seems a little fishy to me that he didn’t know anything at all. Having said that, no evidence of Newton’s wrongdoing has been presented so until proven guilty, he is innocent in my mind and should be eligible to play in this game. I am just worried that five years from now, it will be declared that he had knowledge of the plan all along and his Heisman Trophy will be vacated and the Tigers magical national championship season will be vacated from the record books. Maybe that would be enough for the NCAA to reexamine their policies when it comes to amateur athletes.
Yeah, right…
BY THE NUMBERS
Offensively, the numbers are very similar.
- Oregon ranked 4th in rushing yards per game, Auburn was 6th.
- Oregon was 48th in passing yards, Auburn was 69th.
- Oregon was 2nd in total yards per game, Auburn was 7th.
- Oregon led the nation in points per game, Auburn was 6th.
Defensively, there are some similarities and some differences. Both of these teams were outstanding against the rush, but the numbers are good for different reasons. Auburn ranked 11th against the rush and that ranking is a little more legitimate than Oregon’s ranking of 16th because of the way these two teams took their leads. Likewise, Oregon’s ranking against the pass (56th) is much more inflated than Auburn’s ranking (105th) for the same reason. Auburn was a notoriously slow starting team this year, falling behind numerous times and using a flurry of Cam Newton’s Heismanesque talents to come back in the second half. This means that throughout the game, Auburn’s opponents were most likely trying to utilize a balanced offensive attack and they found that they could chew up yardage through the air but not on the ground.
On the other side, Oregon started somewhat slowly but in the middle of the season when the Blur Offense was at its high octane best, they would start to outpace their opponents late in the second quarter and early in the third. This means that for anywhere from one entire quarter to three entire quarters, Ducks’ opponents had few opportunities for a balanced offense. When you’re trying to make a comeback, you have to air the ball out to get points quickly. Therefore, the passing numbers will be abnormally high and the rushing numbers abnormally low.
What that all means is that Auburn’s run defense is for real and their pass defense is dreadful. On the other side, it just means that Oregon’s defense probably should have been ranked somewhere between 20-40 against both the rush and the pass instead of 16th and 56th. The other important thing to take away from that little bit of conjecture is that there is little doubt around college football circles that Oregon’s defense is in a class above Auburn’s defense and this could be a game where the first team to punt might just lose.
THE TIGERS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have Cam Newton. He was one 11 yard completion away from averaging over 200 yards passing and over 100 yards rushing per game. He led the nation in passing efficiency (sidenote: at the time that I wrote about the Heisman Trophy race a few weeks ago, he was second in efficiency to Kellen Moore but passed him with his performance in the SEC title game) with outstanding metrics: 67% completion percentage, 10.52 yards per attempt, and a 28-6 touchdown to interception ratio. On top of all that, he led the SEC in rushing yards.
Let me say that again: HE LED THE SEC IN RUSHING YARDS. The SEC has a history of producing some great running backs and yet this year, nobody in the conference rushed for more yards than a quarterback. The biggest difference that I see between Newton and Michael Vick (the last quarterback to cause this kind of hubbub over his running skills) is defenses were afraid of Vick throwing the ball but considering that he completed only 56.3% of his college passes, they were more afraid of his running ability. Vick was able to run for so many yards with his sheer athleticism and speed.
By contrast, Cam Newton has shown that while he may not be the most polished passer in the FBS ranks right now, he’s still very good and if you put that extra man or two in the box to stop him, he can exploit man coverage in the secondary. Then, if you drop those extra rushers back into coverage and you give him space and time, he will hurt you on the ground. Then you have a big strong, six foot six, two hundred fifty pound guy with long arms running rampant through your secondary. Just try and tackle him.
KEY STAT: Auburn ranked 105th in passing yards allowed, 75th in passer efficiency allowed, and 54th in points per game allowed.
THE DUCKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Auburn won’t be able to keep up with the Blur. Chip Kelly has toned back his game planning recently, wanting to get victories to ensure his team’s spot in the top two of the final BCS standings but I would expect that to change completely against Auburn. I would expect the Blur to be at its holy-crap-they-already-snapped-the-ball-again finest.
Auburn is extremely good against the rush but will they be able to maintain that intensity and focus for 60 minutes against the Blur, especially when you consider that they probably won’t get too much help from their secondary. Oregon’s offense was at its scary best when Darron Thomas was hitting receivers downfield and the reason for this is simple. As a defensive lineman, if you stop a rushing attempt for a gain of one yard and you know that from the time the ball is spotted you have seven seconds to get set, you’ll only have to move a few yards to get in position. But what happens when Thomas hits a receiver over the middle for a 20 yard gain? You have to sprint 20 yards to get into position and then line up against an offensive line that has been running those types of sprints all year long. Now you just had to sprint 20 yards and you’re going against a 300 pound guard who isn’t as winded as you and he’s about to square you up and drive you off the line.
It doesn’t sound like it would be a big advantage when you consider that these are the best college football teams in the country but over the course of a 60 minute game, it will wear down Auburn’s defensive line. It wouldn’t surprise me at all for the Tigers to take a lead into halftime and then lose it all in the third quarter, which would set up a fantastic race to the finish in the fourth quarter.
Despite missing their first game due to a team imposed suspension, sophomore LaMichael James still led the nation in rushing yards with 1,682. Even though his stature is small (5’9’’, 185 pounds), he has been very durable this year, surpassing 25 carries on 8 different occasions. We also cannot forget that Thomas is also a competent ball carrier, rushing for nearly 500 yards this year while averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
KEY STAT: Oregon’s defense was very opportunistic, ranking seventh this season in turnover margin at +1.08.
THE VERDICT
Both of these teams have gotten a reputation as being slow starters but it’s for different reasons. In the games that I have watched of theirs’ this year, Auburn struggled offensively in the first half of games. Oregon, however, seemed to be feeling their opponents out and wearing them down, knowing that with the conditioning of their entire team, nobody can stay with them for 60 minutes.
In the second half, the Tigers’ defense would then step up and start coming through with key stops while Cam Newton would do his Heisman thing. Oregon would play roughly the same way that they did in the first half but the difference is that the opposing defense is now exhausted so instead of rushes up the middle for 3 or 4 yards, those carries start going for 10 or 12 yards… or sometimes 75.
The way I see this game panning out is Auburn will take the lead into halftime and everyone will start saying that this is going to be unusual because Newton has brought this team back from 4 second half deficits, in three of which they were still trailing in the fourth quarter. Therefore, a lot of people will jump on the Auburn bandwagon.
In the third quarter, Oregon will simply blow the doors off the place and they will remind people why the Blur Offense is as devastating as it is. Cam Newton will try for one more comeback to cap off his amazing season in the fourth quarter but it will be too little, too late.
Oregon 49, Auburn 45
There have been several years over the history of the BCS where the participants in the title game were up for debate and few times have the two teams been the most obvious choices to square off for the hardware. With all due respect to TCU, this is one of those years. I do believe that TCU deserves a shot at the national title but given how they have played this year, I don’t think that TCU should be ranked ahead of either Auburn or Oregon. This game promises to provide plenty of fireworks as neither defense ended up as one of the top in the country while both offenses put up yards and points like few other teams in the country.
The backdrop to this match-up is the entire Cam Newton “Pay-For-Play” fiasco that embroiled the Tigers football program this year. I would love to believe the results of the investigation and say that Cam Newton had no knowledge of what his father was doing but it just seems a little fishy to me that he didn’t know anything at all. Having said that, no evidence of Newton’s wrongdoing has been presented so until proven guilty, he is innocent in my mind and should be eligible to play in this game. I am just worried that five years from now, it will be declared that he had knowledge of the plan all along and his Heisman Trophy will be vacated and the Tigers magical national championship season will be vacated from the record books. Maybe that would be enough for the NCAA to reexamine their policies when it comes to amateur athletes.
Yeah, right…
BY THE NUMBERS
Offensively, the numbers are very similar.
- Oregon ranked 4th in rushing yards per game, Auburn was 6th.
- Oregon was 48th in passing yards, Auburn was 69th.
- Oregon was 2nd in total yards per game, Auburn was 7th.
- Oregon led the nation in points per game, Auburn was 6th.
Defensively, there are some similarities and some differences. Both of these teams were outstanding against the rush, but the numbers are good for different reasons. Auburn ranked 11th against the rush and that ranking is a little more legitimate than Oregon’s ranking of 16th because of the way these two teams took their leads. Likewise, Oregon’s ranking against the pass (56th) is much more inflated than Auburn’s ranking (105th) for the same reason. Auburn was a notoriously slow starting team this year, falling behind numerous times and using a flurry of Cam Newton’s Heismanesque talents to come back in the second half. This means that throughout the game, Auburn’s opponents were most likely trying to utilize a balanced offensive attack and they found that they could chew up yardage through the air but not on the ground.
On the other side, Oregon started somewhat slowly but in the middle of the season when the Blur Offense was at its high octane best, they would start to outpace their opponents late in the second quarter and early in the third. This means that for anywhere from one entire quarter to three entire quarters, Ducks’ opponents had few opportunities for a balanced offense. When you’re trying to make a comeback, you have to air the ball out to get points quickly. Therefore, the passing numbers will be abnormally high and the rushing numbers abnormally low.
What that all means is that Auburn’s run defense is for real and their pass defense is dreadful. On the other side, it just means that Oregon’s defense probably should have been ranked somewhere between 20-40 against both the rush and the pass instead of 16th and 56th. The other important thing to take away from that little bit of conjecture is that there is little doubt around college football circles that Oregon’s defense is in a class above Auburn’s defense and this could be a game where the first team to punt might just lose.
THE TIGERS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have Cam Newton. He was one 11 yard completion away from averaging over 200 yards passing and over 100 yards rushing per game. He led the nation in passing efficiency (sidenote: at the time that I wrote about the Heisman Trophy race a few weeks ago, he was second in efficiency to Kellen Moore but passed him with his performance in the SEC title game) with outstanding metrics: 67% completion percentage, 10.52 yards per attempt, and a 28-6 touchdown to interception ratio. On top of all that, he led the SEC in rushing yards.
Let me say that again: HE LED THE SEC IN RUSHING YARDS. The SEC has a history of producing some great running backs and yet this year, nobody in the conference rushed for more yards than a quarterback. The biggest difference that I see between Newton and Michael Vick (the last quarterback to cause this kind of hubbub over his running skills) is defenses were afraid of Vick throwing the ball but considering that he completed only 56.3% of his college passes, they were more afraid of his running ability. Vick was able to run for so many yards with his sheer athleticism and speed.
By contrast, Cam Newton has shown that while he may not be the most polished passer in the FBS ranks right now, he’s still very good and if you put that extra man or two in the box to stop him, he can exploit man coverage in the secondary. Then, if you drop those extra rushers back into coverage and you give him space and time, he will hurt you on the ground. Then you have a big strong, six foot six, two hundred fifty pound guy with long arms running rampant through your secondary. Just try and tackle him.
KEY STAT: Auburn ranked 105th in passing yards allowed, 75th in passer efficiency allowed, and 54th in points per game allowed.
THE DUCKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Auburn won’t be able to keep up with the Blur. Chip Kelly has toned back his game planning recently, wanting to get victories to ensure his team’s spot in the top two of the final BCS standings but I would expect that to change completely against Auburn. I would expect the Blur to be at its holy-crap-they-already-snapped-the-ball-again finest.
Auburn is extremely good against the rush but will they be able to maintain that intensity and focus for 60 minutes against the Blur, especially when you consider that they probably won’t get too much help from their secondary. Oregon’s offense was at its scary best when Darron Thomas was hitting receivers downfield and the reason for this is simple. As a defensive lineman, if you stop a rushing attempt for a gain of one yard and you know that from the time the ball is spotted you have seven seconds to get set, you’ll only have to move a few yards to get in position. But what happens when Thomas hits a receiver over the middle for a 20 yard gain? You have to sprint 20 yards to get into position and then line up against an offensive line that has been running those types of sprints all year long. Now you just had to sprint 20 yards and you’re going against a 300 pound guard who isn’t as winded as you and he’s about to square you up and drive you off the line.
It doesn’t sound like it would be a big advantage when you consider that these are the best college football teams in the country but over the course of a 60 minute game, it will wear down Auburn’s defensive line. It wouldn’t surprise me at all for the Tigers to take a lead into halftime and then lose it all in the third quarter, which would set up a fantastic race to the finish in the fourth quarter.
Despite missing their first game due to a team imposed suspension, sophomore LaMichael James still led the nation in rushing yards with 1,682. Even though his stature is small (5’9’’, 185 pounds), he has been very durable this year, surpassing 25 carries on 8 different occasions. We also cannot forget that Thomas is also a competent ball carrier, rushing for nearly 500 yards this year while averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
KEY STAT: Oregon’s defense was very opportunistic, ranking seventh this season in turnover margin at +1.08.
THE VERDICT
Both of these teams have gotten a reputation as being slow starters but it’s for different reasons. In the games that I have watched of theirs’ this year, Auburn struggled offensively in the first half of games. Oregon, however, seemed to be feeling their opponents out and wearing them down, knowing that with the conditioning of their entire team, nobody can stay with them for 60 minutes.
In the second half, the Tigers’ defense would then step up and start coming through with key stops while Cam Newton would do his Heisman thing. Oregon would play roughly the same way that they did in the first half but the difference is that the opposing defense is now exhausted so instead of rushes up the middle for 3 or 4 yards, those carries start going for 10 or 12 yards… or sometimes 75.
The way I see this game panning out is Auburn will take the lead into halftime and everyone will start saying that this is going to be unusual because Newton has brought this team back from 4 second half deficits, in three of which they were still trailing in the fourth quarter. Therefore, a lot of people will jump on the Auburn bandwagon.
In the third quarter, Oregon will simply blow the doors off the place and they will remind people why the Blur Offense is as devastating as it is. Cam Newton will try for one more comeback to cap off his amazing season in the fourth quarter but it will be too little, too late.
Oregon 49, Auburn 45
Friday, December 17, 2010
BCS Preview 2011 - Sugar Bowl
Yet another intriguing match-up from our friends at the BCS headquarters… with the possible exception of the Fiesta Bowl, this BCS season seems to be full of what could turn out to be epic games. Unfortunately, not very many BCS match-ups have lived up to the hype going into the games. Last year was the first season since the implementation of the BCS that all of the highest ranked teams played in BCS bowls (top ten starting in January 2007 and top eight before that) and all we got out of those five top 10 match-ups was two yawners, a mostly one-sided affair, an enjoyable defensive struggle that was turned on a fake punt, and a thoroughly anti-climactic championship game that only turned out to be so because Colt McCoy injured his shoulder early in the game.
Another thing that happened last year is Jim Tressel opened up his playbook and confounded a lot of people, including myself. The question now is can he do it again? Pundits have repeated time and time again that Ohio State hasn’t beaten an SEC team in a bowl game since… can you remember the last time they beat an SEC team? Was Woody Hayes still coaching the Buckeyes back then?
On the flipside of this match-up are the Razorbacks of Arkansas that haven’t been a factor in college football in years. They are led by their own NFL prospect of a quarterback in Ryan Mallett who ended up ranked 3rd nationally in passing efficiency.
BY THE NUMBERS
Ryan Mallett helps make up for a lot of deficiencies that the Razorbacks have. Their running game is average (65th nationally), their rush defense is a little below average (69th), their scoring defense is slightly better than average (43rd), and their special teams take turns between great and terrible. They ranked 4th nationally in punt return average, just 56th in net punting, and 102nd in kick return average.
It should be noted that the Razorbacks did play a very difficult schedule in the SEC but many of the rankings listed above usually don’t add up to a top ten BCS caliber team unless they do something very very well and what the Razorbacks can do is throw the ball.
The defense that Mallett is going to be throwing against may be one of the stingiest units in the country… again. I know, Ohio State has a great defense… what else is new? The Buckeyes ranked 4th against the rush, 4th against the pass, 2nd overall in yardage allowed per game, and 3rd in points allowed per game. They allowed opposing quarterbacks a rating of just 96.88 (4th best in the country), more than 70 points lower Mallett’s rating.
Given that Arkansas’ offense and Ohio State’s defense are clearly their strengths, this game will most likely hinge on the other match-up, Arkansas’ defense against Ohio State’s offense, which brings us back to Jim Tressel’s play calling again.
If Tressel calls the game like he did last year in the Rose Bowl against Oregon, the Razorbacks will most likely not be too competitive in this game.
THE RAZORBACKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will clam up and go back to his old conservative play-calling days. To be brutally honest, for as good as Mallett has been this year, that is the only way that I can see Arkansas having a realistic shot at winning this game. This is not the Florida team or the LSU team that blew the Buckeyes out of the national title games in the past few years.
Having said that, this team did play tough against Alabama before losing 24-20 and took a lead against Auburn in the fourth quarter before giving up four straight touchdowns and losing by 22. They did put forth 43 points against the #1 team in the country but it needs to be pointed out that that same #1 team is ranked 105th in pass defense. Ohio State is ranked 4th.
KEY STAT: Ryan Mallett averaged 9.87 yards per attempt, 3rd best in the country behind Kellen Moore (10.16) and Cam Newton (10.52).
THE BUCKEYES WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will continue to trust Terrelle Pryor. The junior completed 66% of his passes for a QB rating of 158.0 and rushed for 639 yards along the way. If he is making plays and doing his best Cam Newton imitation, there is little that any team in the country can do to keep up with the Buckeyes. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback, the only thing that can hold back the Buckeyes is Jim Tressel. He is the perfect ambassador for a football program and he is an outstanding defensive coach, but sometimes he holds his team back offensively.
While the Buckeyes were fantastic on defense, they were underrated on offense. They ranked 18th in total offense and 11th in scoring offense, outgaining their opponents by an astounding 198 yards per game and outscoring their opponents by 26 points per game.
On the offchance that their offense stalls and the game turns into a field position battle, the game will favor the Buckeyes even more, since it sometimes seems like Jim Tressel loves nothing more than to get a lead and play defensive, field position football (Ohio State ranked in the top quarter in both punt and kickoff returns this year).
KEY STAT: The Buckeyes ranked 3rd in kickoff return average, 3rd in turnover margin, and 14th in rushing offense, all keys to a ball control, field position victory.
THE VERDICT
Arkansas will be playing much closer to home than Ohio State when they meet in the Superdome in New Orleans but Ohio State has never had trouble filling seats, no matter where in the country they are playing.
Arkansas’ defense hasn’t played particularly well against the better offenses that they have faced this year, culminating with their disastrous fourth quarter against Auburn. Terrelle Pryor isn’t Cam Newton, but he’s also a lot better than most of the other quarterbacks that the Razorbacks have faced this year.
Ohio State has shown some vulnerability to the run this year but not too much to the pass and that is the greatest challenge that they will face from Arkansas.
Stingy turnover forcing defense + ball control offense = Buckeye victory
Ohio State 24, Arkansas 17
Another thing that happened last year is Jim Tressel opened up his playbook and confounded a lot of people, including myself. The question now is can he do it again? Pundits have repeated time and time again that Ohio State hasn’t beaten an SEC team in a bowl game since… can you remember the last time they beat an SEC team? Was Woody Hayes still coaching the Buckeyes back then?
On the flipside of this match-up are the Razorbacks of Arkansas that haven’t been a factor in college football in years. They are led by their own NFL prospect of a quarterback in Ryan Mallett who ended up ranked 3rd nationally in passing efficiency.
BY THE NUMBERS
Ryan Mallett helps make up for a lot of deficiencies that the Razorbacks have. Their running game is average (65th nationally), their rush defense is a little below average (69th), their scoring defense is slightly better than average (43rd), and their special teams take turns between great and terrible. They ranked 4th nationally in punt return average, just 56th in net punting, and 102nd in kick return average.
It should be noted that the Razorbacks did play a very difficult schedule in the SEC but many of the rankings listed above usually don’t add up to a top ten BCS caliber team unless they do something very very well and what the Razorbacks can do is throw the ball.
The defense that Mallett is going to be throwing against may be one of the stingiest units in the country… again. I know, Ohio State has a great defense… what else is new? The Buckeyes ranked 4th against the rush, 4th against the pass, 2nd overall in yardage allowed per game, and 3rd in points allowed per game. They allowed opposing quarterbacks a rating of just 96.88 (4th best in the country), more than 70 points lower Mallett’s rating.
Given that Arkansas’ offense and Ohio State’s defense are clearly their strengths, this game will most likely hinge on the other match-up, Arkansas’ defense against Ohio State’s offense, which brings us back to Jim Tressel’s play calling again.
If Tressel calls the game like he did last year in the Rose Bowl against Oregon, the Razorbacks will most likely not be too competitive in this game.
THE RAZORBACKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will clam up and go back to his old conservative play-calling days. To be brutally honest, for as good as Mallett has been this year, that is the only way that I can see Arkansas having a realistic shot at winning this game. This is not the Florida team or the LSU team that blew the Buckeyes out of the national title games in the past few years.
Having said that, this team did play tough against Alabama before losing 24-20 and took a lead against Auburn in the fourth quarter before giving up four straight touchdowns and losing by 22. They did put forth 43 points against the #1 team in the country but it needs to be pointed out that that same #1 team is ranked 105th in pass defense. Ohio State is ranked 4th.
KEY STAT: Ryan Mallett averaged 9.87 yards per attempt, 3rd best in the country behind Kellen Moore (10.16) and Cam Newton (10.52).
THE BUCKEYES WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jim Tressel will continue to trust Terrelle Pryor. The junior completed 66% of his passes for a QB rating of 158.0 and rushed for 639 yards along the way. If he is making plays and doing his best Cam Newton imitation, there is little that any team in the country can do to keep up with the Buckeyes. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback, the only thing that can hold back the Buckeyes is Jim Tressel. He is the perfect ambassador for a football program and he is an outstanding defensive coach, but sometimes he holds his team back offensively.
While the Buckeyes were fantastic on defense, they were underrated on offense. They ranked 18th in total offense and 11th in scoring offense, outgaining their opponents by an astounding 198 yards per game and outscoring their opponents by 26 points per game.
On the offchance that their offense stalls and the game turns into a field position battle, the game will favor the Buckeyes even more, since it sometimes seems like Jim Tressel loves nothing more than to get a lead and play defensive, field position football (Ohio State ranked in the top quarter in both punt and kickoff returns this year).
KEY STAT: The Buckeyes ranked 3rd in kickoff return average, 3rd in turnover margin, and 14th in rushing offense, all keys to a ball control, field position victory.
THE VERDICT
Arkansas will be playing much closer to home than Ohio State when they meet in the Superdome in New Orleans but Ohio State has never had trouble filling seats, no matter where in the country they are playing.
Arkansas’ defense hasn’t played particularly well against the better offenses that they have faced this year, culminating with their disastrous fourth quarter against Auburn. Terrelle Pryor isn’t Cam Newton, but he’s also a lot better than most of the other quarterbacks that the Razorbacks have faced this year.
Ohio State has shown some vulnerability to the run this year but not too much to the pass and that is the greatest challenge that they will face from Arkansas.
Stingy turnover forcing defense + ball control offense = Buckeye victory
Ohio State 24, Arkansas 17
BCS Preview 2011 - Orange Bowl
One of the more intriguing match-ups that the BCS has provided us with this year is #13 Virginia Tech against #4 Stanford. The Hokies are one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 11 straight games since starting the season with a tough loss to Boise State and a terrible loss to James Madison. On the other hand, the Cardinal are the best “boring” team in college football. What I mean by that is they run a pro style offense that doesn’t feature a quarterback that ran for 1,500 yards or an offense that takes only seven seconds between snaps of the ball. They have a former professional quarterback for a head coach and a future professional quarterback actually playing quarterback. Their only loss this year is to #1 Oregon and if it wasn’t for the Ducks, it’s entirely possible that Stanford would be ramping up to play Auburn for the National Championship.
BY THE NUMBERS
While Virginia Tech had solid rankings on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, Stanford was slightly better in most every area. The Cardinal ranked in the top 32 (or roughly the top quarter of the country) in yards per game (14th), rushing yards per game (17th), passing yards per game (30th), passing efficiency (7th), yards allowed (24th), rushing yards allowed (24th), passing yards allowed (32nd), pass efficiency defense (21st), points scored, and points allowed (11th).
While Stanford outgained their opponents this year by 141 yards per game (467-326), Virginia Tech outgained their opponents by only 63 yards per game (411-348). The point is simply that while the Hokies had a good statistical year, the Cardinal did just about everything just a little bit better.
THE HOKIES WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Tyrod Taylor is one heck of a playmaker and one of the only other times the Cardinal faced a player of his caliber, they were run out of Eugene, Oregon by the Ducks and quarterback Darron Thomas. Taylor had an impressive season this year, completing 60% of his passes at 8.9 yards per attempt with a touchdown to interception ratio of 23-4. On top of that, he rushed for 637 yards and 5 touchdowns.
The Hokies have a host of good players that will be tough for Stanford to deal with if Taylor is distributing the ball well. Other than Taylor, two other players rushed for at least 600 yards with a per carry average of better than 5.5 yards.
This has all the makings of a close game where the team that makes fewer mistakes will win. In games like that, I always have a hard time betting against a Frank Beamer led defense and special teams.
KEY STAT: The Hokies led the nation in turnover margin at +1.38 per game.
THE CARDINAL WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Andrew Luck. The junior completed over 70% of his passes with a yards per attempt rate nearly as good as Taylor’s with his own impressive TD-INT ratio (28-7). While he is a pocket passer primarily, he can tuck the ball and gain chunks of yardage on the ground, evidenced by his 438 yards rushing and his 8.6 yard per carry average. Behind him, sophomore Stephan Taylor rushed for over 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns. This team is very efficient and doesn’t make all that many mistakes due to savvy players and good coaching.
KEY STAT: While the Cardinal didn’t have the best pass rushing (27 sacks) or ball hawking secondary (17 INT) in the country, they were extremely adept and avoiding those pitfalls; as a team, they threw only 7 interceptions and allowed just 5 sacks all year.
THE VERDICT
Stanford isn’t flashy. They don’t have a Heisman winning quarterback and they don’t rush for 300 yards a game while passing for another 200 per game. They aren’t the type of team that scares you with raw athleticism or sheer talent; they are the type that scares you with their deadly efficiency.
After watching Virginia Tech lose to Boise State, I don’t have a great deal of faith in them against a top tier team. After the Broncos took a 17-0 lead, the Hokies shut down Kellen Moore for a good portion of the game but once the game was on the line, Moore took his offense down the field and scored the winning touchdown rather easily against Beamer’s defense. While Kellen Moore and the Broncos were worthy of their high ranking and were a good team, they are not as good as the Cardinal and Moore isn’t as good as Andrew Luck.
Virginia Tech’s winning streak will end in the Orange Bowl.
Stanford 27, Virginia Tech 17
BY THE NUMBERS
While Virginia Tech had solid rankings on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, Stanford was slightly better in most every area. The Cardinal ranked in the top 32 (or roughly the top quarter of the country) in yards per game (14th), rushing yards per game (17th), passing yards per game (30th), passing efficiency (7th), yards allowed (24th), rushing yards allowed (24th), passing yards allowed (32nd), pass efficiency defense (21st), points scored, and points allowed (11th).
While Stanford outgained their opponents this year by 141 yards per game (467-326), Virginia Tech outgained their opponents by only 63 yards per game (411-348). The point is simply that while the Hokies had a good statistical year, the Cardinal did just about everything just a little bit better.
THE HOKIES WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Tyrod Taylor is one heck of a playmaker and one of the only other times the Cardinal faced a player of his caliber, they were run out of Eugene, Oregon by the Ducks and quarterback Darron Thomas. Taylor had an impressive season this year, completing 60% of his passes at 8.9 yards per attempt with a touchdown to interception ratio of 23-4. On top of that, he rushed for 637 yards and 5 touchdowns.
The Hokies have a host of good players that will be tough for Stanford to deal with if Taylor is distributing the ball well. Other than Taylor, two other players rushed for at least 600 yards with a per carry average of better than 5.5 yards.
This has all the makings of a close game where the team that makes fewer mistakes will win. In games like that, I always have a hard time betting against a Frank Beamer led defense and special teams.
KEY STAT: The Hokies led the nation in turnover margin at +1.38 per game.
THE CARDINAL WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Andrew Luck. The junior completed over 70% of his passes with a yards per attempt rate nearly as good as Taylor’s with his own impressive TD-INT ratio (28-7). While he is a pocket passer primarily, he can tuck the ball and gain chunks of yardage on the ground, evidenced by his 438 yards rushing and his 8.6 yard per carry average. Behind him, sophomore Stephan Taylor rushed for over 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns. This team is very efficient and doesn’t make all that many mistakes due to savvy players and good coaching.
KEY STAT: While the Cardinal didn’t have the best pass rushing (27 sacks) or ball hawking secondary (17 INT) in the country, they were extremely adept and avoiding those pitfalls; as a team, they threw only 7 interceptions and allowed just 5 sacks all year.
THE VERDICT
Stanford isn’t flashy. They don’t have a Heisman winning quarterback and they don’t rush for 300 yards a game while passing for another 200 per game. They aren’t the type of team that scares you with raw athleticism or sheer talent; they are the type that scares you with their deadly efficiency.
After watching Virginia Tech lose to Boise State, I don’t have a great deal of faith in them against a top tier team. After the Broncos took a 17-0 lead, the Hokies shut down Kellen Moore for a good portion of the game but once the game was on the line, Moore took his offense down the field and scored the winning touchdown rather easily against Beamer’s defense. While Kellen Moore and the Broncos were worthy of their high ranking and were a good team, they are not as good as the Cardinal and Moore isn’t as good as Andrew Luck.
Virginia Tech’s winning streak will end in the Orange Bowl.
Stanford 27, Virginia Tech 17
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Quarterback Rating Revisited
Not too long ago, several writers on espn.com starting looking at the difference between white and black quarterbacks and while they never specifically called anyone out for being racist, they came extremely close. In one of these pieces, it was brought up that one of the most common stats used to evaluate a quarterback (QB Rating, a formula that spits out a number between 0 and 158.3 to measure a quarterback’s performance) does not take into account the running ability of a quarterback.
At first, I thought this task was a little on the tall side but eventually I decided to tackle it and while my formula is simplistic, it takes into account total times touching the ball, yardage accumulated, touchdowns scored, and times turning the ball over. Different people will disagree on what they value most from a quarterback but I think that in general we can agree that yards are good (and more yards are better than fewer yards), touchdowns are good, and turnovers are bad. That is the template that I used.
THE SAMPLE
In order to qualify for the rate titles, the Stat-Geeks-That-Be have determined that quarterbacks need to have at least 14 pass attempts per team game or 224 over the course of a full season. For this analysis, only those individual seasons were looked at from 1990-2010. Granted, the 2010 season isn’t over yet but already 30 quarterbacks have thrown the ball more than 224 times and it is this season that has brought up the debate over whether or not the mystical QB Rating is the best way to measure a quarterback. Overall there were 659 such seasons from 1990-2010 with Brett Favre providing 19 of them all by himself.
While this leaves out a good number of quarterbacks that have thrown many passes over the last 21 years, this method compares apples to apples in my opinion. For the most part, backup quarterbacks do not get to throw 224 passes in a season unless the starter suffers a pretty bad injury. Therefore, this sample (for the most part) includes starting quarterbacks only; theoretically the best of the best.
THE METHOD
For this analysis, I wanted to look at as much that shows up in the box score for a quarterback as I could. The main categories that I totaled up were touches, yards, touchdowns, and turnovers.
- Touches included pass attempts, sacks, and rush attempts.
- Yards includes passing yards, rushing yards, and yardage lost on sacks
- Touchdowns included passing and rushing touchdowns
- Turnovers included interceptions and fumbles
I then took these raw numbers and calculated the following rate stats; yards per touch, yards per game, touchdown percentage, and turnover percentage. Once I had those, I compared them to the average of all the quarterbacks that qualified for that season. In other words, Tom Brady’s 2007 season wasn’t compared against Peyton Manning’s 2004 season. For instance, let’s say the average for yards per touch (YPT from now on) was 5.92 (which it was) and a certain player were to have a YPT value of 6.911 (like Tom Brady does this year).
6.911/5.92 = 1.1689
1.1689*100 = 116.89
Therefore, like OPS+ and ERA+ in baseball, I get a number where above 100 is above average and below 100 is below average. Much like quarterback rating, I capped the possible number at 200 (twice as good as league average) and then divided each of the metrics by 4. I know 4 seems like a random number but if you were twice as good as league average in all four metrics, then your MR (Murphy Rating, as I’ve decided to call it) would be an even 200 and I like nice round even numbers. Accordingly, league average is 100, just as it was before.
THE RESULTS
This year, Michael Vick has turned the corner as a quarterback. His QB Rating is 104.3, easily a career high, and his 483 rushing yards already rank 15th for quarterbacks since 1990 and with three games to go if he were to maintain his average, he would go up to 7th. Surely with this dual threat combination, he is having just as good a season as his counterparts that stand like a statue in the pocket and distribute the magic bean.
Nope, this year, Michael Vick ranks just 4th in MR, behind Aaron Rodgers (who is mobile), and two guys that will never be mistaken for track champions, Matt Cassell and Tom Brady. So why is Vick only fourth in by far his best season since being drafted with the number one overall selection? Why do running quarterbacks still not measure up? Well, there are two explanations and one of them is apparently that I am racist.
If any of you reading this know me, you’ll know that’s ridiculous. There is another explanation and it might be a possibly reason why black quarterbacks get paid a little less or why they are continually underrated.
Michael Vick has a better YPT, TD% (touchdown percentage), and yards per game (YPG from now on) than both Aaron Rodgers and Matt Cassell and a better YPT and YPG mark than Tom Brady. Why is he ranked behind them? It’s that fourth metric, the turnover percentage (TO% from now on). Vick has thrown 4 interceptions, the same number as Cassell and Brady and 6 fewer than Rodgers. However, here are their pass attempts this year:
Brady – 425
Rodgers – 410
Cassell – 354
Vick – 294
Now here’s the other part that perhaps wasn’t fully thought through by those who said that the Quarterback Rating needed to be rethought. When Michael Vick tucks the ball and heads upfield, he doesn’t always tuck the ball. I’ve seen many replays where he’s holding the ball at arm’s length as if he’s about to throw the ball well beyond the line of scrimmage. So what, am I saying he can’t hold onto the ball? Not at all, on the contrary, I’m saying it’s much easier for a defender to knock the ball loose. Despite carrying the ball 82 times for 483 yards and 7 touchdowns this year, Vick has fumbled the ball 9 times. When you take that into account, his running ability seems to be mitigated by his turnovers. Why is Aaron Rodgers ranked ahead of Vick? Mostly because Vick has turned the ball over 13 times in a total of 401 touches (rushes, sacks, and pass attempts). Aaron Rodgers has 492 such touches and only 12 turnovers. Matt Cassell is surprisingly high because he is at 395 and 6, respectively, and Brady is number one this year because he has only turned the ball over 6 times and has a total of 474 touches.
In 2006 Michael Vick set the record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 1,039 and in this sample, that season ranks only 256th (or in the 61st percentile) because he turned the ball over 22 times while providing 22 touchdowns. On top of that, his total yards per touch were very low that year, mostly because his yards per pass attempt was significantly lower (6.4) than his yards per rush attempt (8.4).
THE BEST
If you look at the quarterbacks that did well in this analysis, they do have one thing in common; they can throw the football. If you look at the top of the MR rankings, there are several quarterbacks who could run the ball but they could still throw it. In Steve Young’s best 5 seasons, he ranked 3rd, 7th, 10th, 13th, and 16th in MR and combined to rush for 2,106 yards. His lowest passer rating in those five years was 101.1.
Of the top ten seasons, the average number of passing yards was 3,781 and passing touchdowns was 32.9. By contrast, those ten averaged just 187 rushing yards, a decent total from a quarterback but hardly at the level of a “running” quarterback. Most notable when you’re looking at that top ten list is the fact that those quarterbacks combined for 356 touchdowns and just 130 turnovers.
These are the top ten seasons of the past 20 years:
Name (year)
MR (out of 200)
Touches-Yards-TD-Turnovers
Tom Brady (2007)
163.9
636-4,776-52-14
Peyton Manning (2006)
155.8
594-4,347-35-11
Steve Young (1994)
154.9
550-4,099-42-14
Peyton Manning (2004)
153.8
535-4,494-49-15
Randall Cunningham (1998)
152.8
477-3,704-35-12
Donovan McNabb (2006)
148.9
369-2,719-21-9
Steve Young (1991)
147.3
358-2,853-21-11
Kurt Warner (1999)
144.6
551-4,244-42-22
Tom Brady (2010)
143.5
474-3,276-30-6
Steve Young (1992)
141.1
507-3,850-29-16
SUMMATION
Is it coincidence that black quarterbacks have only two of those ten seasons? Yes, it is. Every action in football has a tradeoff. When you throw a pass, it’s possible that it can get intercepted. When you tuck the ball and run, it’s possible that the ball can get stripped from your hands. Considering that many quarterbacks are taught for their entire careers to avoid interceptions and perhaps aren’t taught at all to properly cradle the ball to protect it from defenders, it shouldn’t be that surprising that quarterbacks have high fumble rates and running quarterbacks have even higher fumble rates.
Of the top 12 rushing seasons by QB’s since 1990, seven of them have fumbled more than 10 times. While Daunte Culpepper rushed for 609 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2002, he also fumbled the ball 23 times.
So the real question is, who would you rather have on your team, a guy who may not make spectacular plays with his feet but turns the ball over about once a game or the guy who will make the highlight reel every Sunday night but will give the ball to the defense 25-30 times in a season?
Am I racist when I say that Michael Vick and Donovan McNabb aren’t as good as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning? Some of you may think so but I don’t think I am. Many people say that success as a quarterback is measured by how many rings you have and while Manning has one and Brady three, McNabb and Vick have combined for zero. Peyton Manning will probably break nearly ever career passing record in the books and will hold them for a very long time. Brady has an excellent shot at a fourth ring this year despite a porous defense. Donovan McNabb is finally finding out what it’s like to play on a team that isn’t studded with Pro Bowlers and Michael Vick has a good shot at a deep run in the playoffs because he is now on a balanced team.
I’m all for using more tools to evaluate quarterbacks, but to put guys like McNabb and Vick in the conversation with Manning and Brady (when considering their careers) is nothing short of ludicrous and that has nothing to do with the color of their skin.
At first, I thought this task was a little on the tall side but eventually I decided to tackle it and while my formula is simplistic, it takes into account total times touching the ball, yardage accumulated, touchdowns scored, and times turning the ball over. Different people will disagree on what they value most from a quarterback but I think that in general we can agree that yards are good (and more yards are better than fewer yards), touchdowns are good, and turnovers are bad. That is the template that I used.
THE SAMPLE
In order to qualify for the rate titles, the Stat-Geeks-That-Be have determined that quarterbacks need to have at least 14 pass attempts per team game or 224 over the course of a full season. For this analysis, only those individual seasons were looked at from 1990-2010. Granted, the 2010 season isn’t over yet but already 30 quarterbacks have thrown the ball more than 224 times and it is this season that has brought up the debate over whether or not the mystical QB Rating is the best way to measure a quarterback. Overall there were 659 such seasons from 1990-2010 with Brett Favre providing 19 of them all by himself.
While this leaves out a good number of quarterbacks that have thrown many passes over the last 21 years, this method compares apples to apples in my opinion. For the most part, backup quarterbacks do not get to throw 224 passes in a season unless the starter suffers a pretty bad injury. Therefore, this sample (for the most part) includes starting quarterbacks only; theoretically the best of the best.
THE METHOD
For this analysis, I wanted to look at as much that shows up in the box score for a quarterback as I could. The main categories that I totaled up were touches, yards, touchdowns, and turnovers.
- Touches included pass attempts, sacks, and rush attempts.
- Yards includes passing yards, rushing yards, and yardage lost on sacks
- Touchdowns included passing and rushing touchdowns
- Turnovers included interceptions and fumbles
I then took these raw numbers and calculated the following rate stats; yards per touch, yards per game, touchdown percentage, and turnover percentage. Once I had those, I compared them to the average of all the quarterbacks that qualified for that season. In other words, Tom Brady’s 2007 season wasn’t compared against Peyton Manning’s 2004 season. For instance, let’s say the average for yards per touch (YPT from now on) was 5.92 (which it was) and a certain player were to have a YPT value of 6.911 (like Tom Brady does this year).
6.911/5.92 = 1.1689
1.1689*100 = 116.89
Therefore, like OPS+ and ERA+ in baseball, I get a number where above 100 is above average and below 100 is below average. Much like quarterback rating, I capped the possible number at 200 (twice as good as league average) and then divided each of the metrics by 4. I know 4 seems like a random number but if you were twice as good as league average in all four metrics, then your MR (Murphy Rating, as I’ve decided to call it) would be an even 200 and I like nice round even numbers. Accordingly, league average is 100, just as it was before.
THE RESULTS
This year, Michael Vick has turned the corner as a quarterback. His QB Rating is 104.3, easily a career high, and his 483 rushing yards already rank 15th for quarterbacks since 1990 and with three games to go if he were to maintain his average, he would go up to 7th. Surely with this dual threat combination, he is having just as good a season as his counterparts that stand like a statue in the pocket and distribute the magic bean.
Nope, this year, Michael Vick ranks just 4th in MR, behind Aaron Rodgers (who is mobile), and two guys that will never be mistaken for track champions, Matt Cassell and Tom Brady. So why is Vick only fourth in by far his best season since being drafted with the number one overall selection? Why do running quarterbacks still not measure up? Well, there are two explanations and one of them is apparently that I am racist.
If any of you reading this know me, you’ll know that’s ridiculous. There is another explanation and it might be a possibly reason why black quarterbacks get paid a little less or why they are continually underrated.
Michael Vick has a better YPT, TD% (touchdown percentage), and yards per game (YPG from now on) than both Aaron Rodgers and Matt Cassell and a better YPT and YPG mark than Tom Brady. Why is he ranked behind them? It’s that fourth metric, the turnover percentage (TO% from now on). Vick has thrown 4 interceptions, the same number as Cassell and Brady and 6 fewer than Rodgers. However, here are their pass attempts this year:
Brady – 425
Rodgers – 410
Cassell – 354
Vick – 294
Now here’s the other part that perhaps wasn’t fully thought through by those who said that the Quarterback Rating needed to be rethought. When Michael Vick tucks the ball and heads upfield, he doesn’t always tuck the ball. I’ve seen many replays where he’s holding the ball at arm’s length as if he’s about to throw the ball well beyond the line of scrimmage. So what, am I saying he can’t hold onto the ball? Not at all, on the contrary, I’m saying it’s much easier for a defender to knock the ball loose. Despite carrying the ball 82 times for 483 yards and 7 touchdowns this year, Vick has fumbled the ball 9 times. When you take that into account, his running ability seems to be mitigated by his turnovers. Why is Aaron Rodgers ranked ahead of Vick? Mostly because Vick has turned the ball over 13 times in a total of 401 touches (rushes, sacks, and pass attempts). Aaron Rodgers has 492 such touches and only 12 turnovers. Matt Cassell is surprisingly high because he is at 395 and 6, respectively, and Brady is number one this year because he has only turned the ball over 6 times and has a total of 474 touches.
In 2006 Michael Vick set the record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 1,039 and in this sample, that season ranks only 256th (or in the 61st percentile) because he turned the ball over 22 times while providing 22 touchdowns. On top of that, his total yards per touch were very low that year, mostly because his yards per pass attempt was significantly lower (6.4) than his yards per rush attempt (8.4).
THE BEST
If you look at the quarterbacks that did well in this analysis, they do have one thing in common; they can throw the football. If you look at the top of the MR rankings, there are several quarterbacks who could run the ball but they could still throw it. In Steve Young’s best 5 seasons, he ranked 3rd, 7th, 10th, 13th, and 16th in MR and combined to rush for 2,106 yards. His lowest passer rating in those five years was 101.1.
Of the top ten seasons, the average number of passing yards was 3,781 and passing touchdowns was 32.9. By contrast, those ten averaged just 187 rushing yards, a decent total from a quarterback but hardly at the level of a “running” quarterback. Most notable when you’re looking at that top ten list is the fact that those quarterbacks combined for 356 touchdowns and just 130 turnovers.
These are the top ten seasons of the past 20 years:
Name (year)
MR (out of 200)
Touches-Yards-TD-Turnovers
Tom Brady (2007)
163.9
636-4,776-52-14
Peyton Manning (2006)
155.8
594-4,347-35-11
Steve Young (1994)
154.9
550-4,099-42-14
Peyton Manning (2004)
153.8
535-4,494-49-15
Randall Cunningham (1998)
152.8
477-3,704-35-12
Donovan McNabb (2006)
148.9
369-2,719-21-9
Steve Young (1991)
147.3
358-2,853-21-11
Kurt Warner (1999)
144.6
551-4,244-42-22
Tom Brady (2010)
143.5
474-3,276-30-6
Steve Young (1992)
141.1
507-3,850-29-16
SUMMATION
Is it coincidence that black quarterbacks have only two of those ten seasons? Yes, it is. Every action in football has a tradeoff. When you throw a pass, it’s possible that it can get intercepted. When you tuck the ball and run, it’s possible that the ball can get stripped from your hands. Considering that many quarterbacks are taught for their entire careers to avoid interceptions and perhaps aren’t taught at all to properly cradle the ball to protect it from defenders, it shouldn’t be that surprising that quarterbacks have high fumble rates and running quarterbacks have even higher fumble rates.
Of the top 12 rushing seasons by QB’s since 1990, seven of them have fumbled more than 10 times. While Daunte Culpepper rushed for 609 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2002, he also fumbled the ball 23 times.
So the real question is, who would you rather have on your team, a guy who may not make spectacular plays with his feet but turns the ball over about once a game or the guy who will make the highlight reel every Sunday night but will give the ball to the defense 25-30 times in a season?
Am I racist when I say that Michael Vick and Donovan McNabb aren’t as good as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning? Some of you may think so but I don’t think I am. Many people say that success as a quarterback is measured by how many rings you have and while Manning has one and Brady three, McNabb and Vick have combined for zero. Peyton Manning will probably break nearly ever career passing record in the books and will hold them for a very long time. Brady has an excellent shot at a fourth ring this year despite a porous defense. Donovan McNabb is finally finding out what it’s like to play on a team that isn’t studded with Pro Bowlers and Michael Vick has a good shot at a deep run in the playoffs because he is now on a balanced team.
I’m all for using more tools to evaluate quarterbacks, but to put guys like McNabb and Vick in the conversation with Manning and Brady (when considering their careers) is nothing short of ludicrous and that has nothing to do with the color of their skin.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
BCS Preview 2011 - Fiesta Bowl
Shortly after TCU or Wisconsin takes a knee to seal a victory in the “Granddaddy of Them All”, Connecticut and Oklahoma will kick off in this year’s version of the Fiesta Bowl.
Oklahoma got to this point by finishing 10-2, winning the Big XII South, and then defeating Nebraska 23-20 to get the conference’s automatic BCS bid.
Connecticut got here by winning five straight games after starting the season 3-4. They got here because of a contractual obligation to include the winner of the Big East every year but it’s somewhat difficult to debate (in a perfect world) that they belong here. In the regular season, 20 teams won 10 or more games and another 6, including one in their own conference (9-3 West Virginia) won 9 games. Of those 26 teams, 17 of them are not going to play in a BCS bowl.
My goal here is not to slight the achievement of the Huskies football team this year. My goal is much more to put a shot across the bow of the BCS and ask, yet again, why a sub-par team from what is currently a sub-par conference allowed to play in one of the most prestigious bowl games in the country? The answer, of course, is money. While that is true, it doesn’t make the pill any easier to swallow.
BY THE NUMBERS
Oklahoma has huge advantages offensively and only concedes a little defensively to UConn’s ranks. While the Sooners ranked 4th in passing offense and 13th in total offense, Connecticut ranked 112th and 96th, respectively, in those categories. How did the Huskies win 8 games? With their ground game, which ranked 31st in the country, and their defense, which ranked only 48th in yards allowed but 23rd in points allowed per game.
UConn will need to take the air out of the ball and keep Oklahoma’s offense off the field or this game could get ugly.
CONNECTICUT WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jordan Todman will put the entire team on his back and carry them to victory. He rushed for 1,574 yards this season (with a per game average of 143.1 yards per game which ranked second in the country to Oregon’s LaMichael James) and 14 touchdowns. He carried the ball more than 25 times for more than 100 yards in each of the Huskies’ last five games, all UConn wins. Their only hope against the Sooners is to keep the score low and hope that they are able to force turnovers.
KEY STAT: Connecticut is ranked 91st in net punting this year at 34.75 yards per punt.
OKLAHOMA WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have a dynamic offense led by sophomore Landry Jones. Their defense is passable (63rd against the run, 51st against the pass, 58th overall) but they were in the top ten in net punting and turnover margin, showing a bend-but-don’t-break trend on defense.
In his second full season as a starter, Landry Jones made great strides, increasing his passer rating from 130.8 to 145.2 while throwing for 4,289 yards with a completion percentage of 65.3%. Behind him, DeMarco Murray rushed for 1,121 yards and 14 touchdowns which included four 100 yard performances.
THE VERDICT
This one is pretty easy. Oklahoma should be a big favorite and much like their fellow Big East champion of several years ago (Pittsburgh), they are going to find themselves outmatched.
Oklahoma 31, Connecticut 14
Oklahoma got to this point by finishing 10-2, winning the Big XII South, and then defeating Nebraska 23-20 to get the conference’s automatic BCS bid.
Connecticut got here by winning five straight games after starting the season 3-4. They got here because of a contractual obligation to include the winner of the Big East every year but it’s somewhat difficult to debate (in a perfect world) that they belong here. In the regular season, 20 teams won 10 or more games and another 6, including one in their own conference (9-3 West Virginia) won 9 games. Of those 26 teams, 17 of them are not going to play in a BCS bowl.
My goal here is not to slight the achievement of the Huskies football team this year. My goal is much more to put a shot across the bow of the BCS and ask, yet again, why a sub-par team from what is currently a sub-par conference allowed to play in one of the most prestigious bowl games in the country? The answer, of course, is money. While that is true, it doesn’t make the pill any easier to swallow.
BY THE NUMBERS
Oklahoma has huge advantages offensively and only concedes a little defensively to UConn’s ranks. While the Sooners ranked 4th in passing offense and 13th in total offense, Connecticut ranked 112th and 96th, respectively, in those categories. How did the Huskies win 8 games? With their ground game, which ranked 31st in the country, and their defense, which ranked only 48th in yards allowed but 23rd in points allowed per game.
UConn will need to take the air out of the ball and keep Oklahoma’s offense off the field or this game could get ugly.
CONNECTICUT WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Jordan Todman will put the entire team on his back and carry them to victory. He rushed for 1,574 yards this season (with a per game average of 143.1 yards per game which ranked second in the country to Oregon’s LaMichael James) and 14 touchdowns. He carried the ball more than 25 times for more than 100 yards in each of the Huskies’ last five games, all UConn wins. Their only hope against the Sooners is to keep the score low and hope that they are able to force turnovers.
KEY STAT: Connecticut is ranked 91st in net punting this year at 34.75 yards per punt.
OKLAHOMA WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have a dynamic offense led by sophomore Landry Jones. Their defense is passable (63rd against the run, 51st against the pass, 58th overall) but they were in the top ten in net punting and turnover margin, showing a bend-but-don’t-break trend on defense.
In his second full season as a starter, Landry Jones made great strides, increasing his passer rating from 130.8 to 145.2 while throwing for 4,289 yards with a completion percentage of 65.3%. Behind him, DeMarco Murray rushed for 1,121 yards and 14 touchdowns which included four 100 yard performances.
THE VERDICT
This one is pretty easy. Oklahoma should be a big favorite and much like their fellow Big East champion of several years ago (Pittsburgh), they are going to find themselves outmatched.
Oklahoma 31, Connecticut 14
BCS Preview 2011 - Rose Bowl
It’s that time of year again! The final BCS standings have come out and unlike several years past, there are relatively few arguments to be made about the selections for the BCS. Granted, there is one glaring team that doesn’t seem to belong (we’re looking at you, Huskies) but that’s just the annual problem with giving six conferences automatic bids when there are bound to be down years for each and every conference in the country.
This is my third year writing previews for the BCS games and so far my record is dead even at 5-5. Two years ago I managed to get four of the five games right, missing out on a perfect BCS season because Alabama decided to only play three quarters instead of four against Utah. Last year was the exact opposite as Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, TCU, and Oregon all disappointed me. The one constant is that I have correctly picked both national champions so if you feel like placing a wager…
So we start off our BCS conversation in Pasadena, California, with the Rose Bowl.
In my opinion this game this year could be called the Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Bowl. In the 2011 Rose Bowl Game provided by Vizio, played January 1st at 5:00 Eastern Standard Time on ESPN, the Texas Christian Horned Frogs will square off against the Wisconsin Badgers. While the Badgers haven’t had anything to do with the recent controversy surround Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee’s comments, they couldn’t help but be dragged into the mix and the reason is simple; they beat Ohio State. On October 16th, Ohio State came into Camp Randall as the #1 team in the country and left with their first loss. If TCU managed to beat Wisconsin, it will prolong the embarrassment for Gee even though he has already retracted his absurd comments.
What is at stake for TCU? Everything. This is, in my opinion, the very rare instance where they have everything to win and everything to lose at the same time. If they lose, people will say that they can’t compete at this level and it will set back the cause of the TCU’s and Utah’s and Boise State’s by several years. If they can pull this game out, then they can say they beat a very good team from a BCS conference (not Pittsburgh or UConn or whoever gets the nod from the Big East) in a neutral site where the BCS conference member has very few excuses to use about why they lost. The fates of 55 teams spread across five conferences are all going to watch this game eagerly and no matter how much they hate TCU, on January 1st they should all be fans of the Horned Frogs.
BY THE NUMBERS
This game matches two of the more impressive statistical resumes that exist in the BCS games this year and there isn’t a large advantage on either side but where you see the biggest difference is in their respective defensive rankings.
TCU was ranked 3rd against the rush (89.17 yards per game), 1st against the pass (126.25), 1st in pass efficiency defense (93.12 opponent’s quarterback rating), 1st in overall defense (215.42), and first in scoring defense (11.42 points per game).
Wisconsin’s offensive ranks in those five categories are 12th, 74th, 17th, 3rd, and 4th, respectively. This is definitely going to be a strength vs. strength match-up when the Badgers have the ball and that could very well determine who wins this game.
TCU WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have a chip on their shoulder the size of Texas. They have played in one BCS bowl and because of a fake punt by Boise State, they were not able to pull the game out (granted, the game was tied at the time but that was the play that sent the Broncos on their way to victory). On top of that, the president of a university with one of the more prestigious football programs in the country came out and slammed several football programs by name, including TCU’s. If you think that Gary Patterson isn’t using that to motivate his team against the only team to beat Ohio State this year, you are flat out wrong.
The Horned Frogs are a senior laden bunch and that, as much as anything else, works greatly in their favor in this game. They also played in a BCS bowl just a year ago while the Badgers haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since they beat UCLA and Stanford in back to back years in 1999 and 2000.
TCU was outstanding on offense (8th in rushing, 9th in total offense, 4th in scoring offense) and was even better on defense (see defensive rankings above). They allowed 10 or fewer points in 8 of their 12 games this year and allowed more than 24 just once.
Their special teams are also quite good as they ranked 5th in both punt return average and kick return average. If this game turns into a shootout, it could very much go either way. If it turns into a field position defensive struggle, I think that the advantage is definitely in TCU’s favor.
KEY STAT: You want more evidence of how their experience has shown this season? As a team they have allowed only 9 sacks and have thrown just 6 interceptions all season.
WISCONSIN WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They cannot be stopped on offense. 6 times this year they have scored more than 40 points and in three of those games, they topped 70. They did have a close call against a 6-6 Arizona State team (at home, no less) two weeks before suffering their only defeat against Michigan State but since then, only Iowa has played within 13 points of the Badgers.
Offensively, they are led by the three headed monster of James White, John Clay, and Montee Ball who have combined to rush for 2,829 yards (with a 6.1 yard per carry average) and 44 touchdowns. That sort of ridiculous production has led to Scott Tolzien having a fantastic year, despite only throwing the ball about 20 times per game. His passer rating of 169.8 ranks 4th nationally and he has been consistent this year, not prone to too many up and down performances.
Defensively, the Badgers haven’t been nearly as good and that unit is most critical to their success against Andy Dalton and TCU. They ranked just 49th in pass efficiency defense and part of that can be explained by the fact that given their enormous leads in several games, their opponents will have been throwing the ball all over the field in an attempt to keep up with Wisconsin. It still means, however, that their pass defense is suspect. They also ranked 29th in scoring defense and did surrender 20 or more points 7 times, including 30 to Iowa and 34 to Michigan State in their one loss.
KEY STAT: Wisconsin ranked 3rd this year in turnover margin at +1.17 per game.
THE VERDICT
I went with TCU a year ago and they let me down. They won’t do it to me again.
In short, their defense is too good. I know that their numbers have been inflated slightly by playing against the Mountain West Conference but even if you could adjust for the competition that they are playing, they still have an elite, senior heavy defense. Their defensive unit has 10 seniors and 6 of them played in every game this year.
On the other side of the ball, four of their five offensive lineman are seniors and the fifth is a junior and most importantly, Andy Dalton is a senior wanting put an exclamation point on a career that so far has a 41-8 record.
Most of all though, this is one of the few real shots that a team from a non-BCS conference will have to go toe to toe with a top five team from a BCS conference on a neutral field and the Horned Frogs will be ready.
I think that TCU will come out of the gate and hit Wisconsin in the mouth in the first quarter before settling down to a defensive, field position battle similar to the way Utah beat Alabama two years ago.
TCU 28, WISCONSIN 21
This is my third year writing previews for the BCS games and so far my record is dead even at 5-5. Two years ago I managed to get four of the five games right, missing out on a perfect BCS season because Alabama decided to only play three quarters instead of four against Utah. Last year was the exact opposite as Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, TCU, and Oregon all disappointed me. The one constant is that I have correctly picked both national champions so if you feel like placing a wager…
So we start off our BCS conversation in Pasadena, California, with the Rose Bowl.
In my opinion this game this year could be called the Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Bowl. In the 2011 Rose Bowl Game provided by Vizio, played January 1st at 5:00 Eastern Standard Time on ESPN, the Texas Christian Horned Frogs will square off against the Wisconsin Badgers. While the Badgers haven’t had anything to do with the recent controversy surround Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee’s comments, they couldn’t help but be dragged into the mix and the reason is simple; they beat Ohio State. On October 16th, Ohio State came into Camp Randall as the #1 team in the country and left with their first loss. If TCU managed to beat Wisconsin, it will prolong the embarrassment for Gee even though he has already retracted his absurd comments.
What is at stake for TCU? Everything. This is, in my opinion, the very rare instance where they have everything to win and everything to lose at the same time. If they lose, people will say that they can’t compete at this level and it will set back the cause of the TCU’s and Utah’s and Boise State’s by several years. If they can pull this game out, then they can say they beat a very good team from a BCS conference (not Pittsburgh or UConn or whoever gets the nod from the Big East) in a neutral site where the BCS conference member has very few excuses to use about why they lost. The fates of 55 teams spread across five conferences are all going to watch this game eagerly and no matter how much they hate TCU, on January 1st they should all be fans of the Horned Frogs.
BY THE NUMBERS
This game matches two of the more impressive statistical resumes that exist in the BCS games this year and there isn’t a large advantage on either side but where you see the biggest difference is in their respective defensive rankings.
TCU was ranked 3rd against the rush (89.17 yards per game), 1st against the pass (126.25), 1st in pass efficiency defense (93.12 opponent’s quarterback rating), 1st in overall defense (215.42), and first in scoring defense (11.42 points per game).
Wisconsin’s offensive ranks in those five categories are 12th, 74th, 17th, 3rd, and 4th, respectively. This is definitely going to be a strength vs. strength match-up when the Badgers have the ball and that could very well determine who wins this game.
TCU WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have a chip on their shoulder the size of Texas. They have played in one BCS bowl and because of a fake punt by Boise State, they were not able to pull the game out (granted, the game was tied at the time but that was the play that sent the Broncos on their way to victory). On top of that, the president of a university with one of the more prestigious football programs in the country came out and slammed several football programs by name, including TCU’s. If you think that Gary Patterson isn’t using that to motivate his team against the only team to beat Ohio State this year, you are flat out wrong.
The Horned Frogs are a senior laden bunch and that, as much as anything else, works greatly in their favor in this game. They also played in a BCS bowl just a year ago while the Badgers haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since they beat UCLA and Stanford in back to back years in 1999 and 2000.
TCU was outstanding on offense (8th in rushing, 9th in total offense, 4th in scoring offense) and was even better on defense (see defensive rankings above). They allowed 10 or fewer points in 8 of their 12 games this year and allowed more than 24 just once.
Their special teams are also quite good as they ranked 5th in both punt return average and kick return average. If this game turns into a shootout, it could very much go either way. If it turns into a field position defensive struggle, I think that the advantage is definitely in TCU’s favor.
KEY STAT: You want more evidence of how their experience has shown this season? As a team they have allowed only 9 sacks and have thrown just 6 interceptions all season.
WISCONSIN WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They cannot be stopped on offense. 6 times this year they have scored more than 40 points and in three of those games, they topped 70. They did have a close call against a 6-6 Arizona State team (at home, no less) two weeks before suffering their only defeat against Michigan State but since then, only Iowa has played within 13 points of the Badgers.
Offensively, they are led by the three headed monster of James White, John Clay, and Montee Ball who have combined to rush for 2,829 yards (with a 6.1 yard per carry average) and 44 touchdowns. That sort of ridiculous production has led to Scott Tolzien having a fantastic year, despite only throwing the ball about 20 times per game. His passer rating of 169.8 ranks 4th nationally and he has been consistent this year, not prone to too many up and down performances.
Defensively, the Badgers haven’t been nearly as good and that unit is most critical to their success against Andy Dalton and TCU. They ranked just 49th in pass efficiency defense and part of that can be explained by the fact that given their enormous leads in several games, their opponents will have been throwing the ball all over the field in an attempt to keep up with Wisconsin. It still means, however, that their pass defense is suspect. They also ranked 29th in scoring defense and did surrender 20 or more points 7 times, including 30 to Iowa and 34 to Michigan State in their one loss.
KEY STAT: Wisconsin ranked 3rd this year in turnover margin at +1.17 per game.
THE VERDICT
I went with TCU a year ago and they let me down. They won’t do it to me again.
In short, their defense is too good. I know that their numbers have been inflated slightly by playing against the Mountain West Conference but even if you could adjust for the competition that they are playing, they still have an elite, senior heavy defense. Their defensive unit has 10 seniors and 6 of them played in every game this year.
On the other side of the ball, four of their five offensive lineman are seniors and the fifth is a junior and most importantly, Andy Dalton is a senior wanting put an exclamation point on a career that so far has a 41-8 record.
Most of all though, this is one of the few real shots that a team from a non-BCS conference will have to go toe to toe with a top five team from a BCS conference on a neutral field and the Horned Frogs will be ready.
I think that TCU will come out of the gate and hit Wisconsin in the mouth in the first quarter before settling down to a defensive, field position battle similar to the way Utah beat Alabama two years ago.
TCU 28, WISCONSIN 21
Thursday, December 2, 2010
State of Football Address - FBS Edition
The calendar says December now which means that attention has turned from the regular season grind to studying for finals and winter vacation on college campuses all over the country… yeah, right.
Once again we have started our annual dance to try to figure out the permutations that will allow certain teams to leapfrog certain other teams in the annual beauty pageant that the NCAA refers to as the BCS. This year though, thanks to a plucky Wolfpack, it’s a lot more straightforward and the cries of BCS opponents have become somewhat muted. Instead of arguing over who gets to play for the top prize, the arguments this year surround the much less contentious topic of who gets to play in the BCS bowls.
For instance, in the Big Ten, three teams have identical 11-1 (7-1) records, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State and as of this past Sunday, they are ranked 5th, 6th, and 8th, respectively, in the BCS. Under past Big Ten tiebreaking rules, they would have sent the team that was suffering the longest current Rose Bowl drought to Pasadena, which would have sent the Spartans to the parade of roses. However, currently, they simply use whoever is the highest ranked team in the BCS, which will more or less inevitably send the Badgers to the Rose Bowl. While I feel bad for Michigan State, who had a great season, I have a hard time arguing that Wisconsin doesn’t deserve to go given that for several weeks now, they have been the absolute best team in the Big Ten (though I believe that the football gods may be putting them up on a pedestal only to knock them down because of their three victories by scores of 70-23, 70-3, and 83-20).
As much as I am a fan of the underdogs, this simply wasn’t their season. For almost all of last year, I believed that TCU was a more worthy candidate than Boise State and that belief got thrown back in my face in the Fiesta Bowl in the form of a head to head loss to the Smurf Turf Broncos. After that game, I became a believer in Chris Peterson and Kellen Moore along with the other 19 starters they had returning but nobody who mattered seemed to jump on the bandwagon. They started the season 5th in the polls and seemed to be fighting an immense uphill battle, getting leapfrogged in the rankings four times by Oklahoma, Auburn, Oregon, and TCU. Despite winning a de facto road game against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season, they only gained ground but never moved up the rankings. After starting the season at #3, they moved up in the standings just twice and both occurrences were after a leapfrogging team that had pushed them down to #4 lost.
I’m not asking you to feel sorry for Boise State. They knew coming into this season that in order to play for the ultimate prize, they had to be perfect and in the end, they couldn’t do it, losing a heartbreaker to Nevada 34-31, missing two short field goals and getting dominated in the second half. Now all the focus shifts to TCU and unless the Gamecocks can beat Auburn, TCU will have to settle for the Rose Bowl and while that pales in comparison to the BCS National Championship Game, that’s one hell of a consolation prize. Trust me, I’m a fan of the Washington Huskies; I’d love to have my team playing in the Rose Bowl this year.
THE BOWLS
Right now the Bowl picture seems pretty clear but there is still plenty of room for chaos and that all starts Saturday in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. #1 Auburn will play #19 South Carolina in a rematch of one of the few games that Auburn struggled in this year. If the Tigers manage to lose, then TCU will undoubtedly move up to #2 and play Oregon for the national title. However, I do have to mention that Oregon plays Oregon State in the Civil War game and even though the Beavers are 5-6, you always have to take rivalry games seriously because anything can happen.
Barring disaster, Oregon and Auburn will play for all the marbles. TCU and Stanford will get into the BCS party via the “3-4 rule” saying that the 3rd and 4th ranked teams in the BCS are guaranteed BCS Bowl berths. Wisconsin looks all but certain to win the BCS tiebreakers in the Big Ten, which will leave Ohio State and Michigan State hoping for an at-large bid.
The Big XII Championship Game will be one of the more interesting games, pitting #9 Oklahoma against #13 Nebraska. Likewise, the ACC title game between #15 Virginia Tech and #21 Florida State will also be an interesting game as Virginia Tech attempts to finish their undefeated ACC season.
Which leaves the Big East. I never would have expected to write these words in all my life when talking about football… Connecticut controls their own destiny in the Big East. In that respect, it is one heck of a weird season. It is also easy to see why TCU will join the Big East which is quite simply the weakest conference with an automatic BCS bid. I’m very near willing to pencil in TCU for that berth for the next year or two but I digress.
That gives us a total of eight teams in the BCS; who will the last two be? According to BCS rules, the following teams are eligible for at-large bids (excluding those already mentioned above), placed in order of BCS rankings:
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#8 Michigan State (11-1)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2)
#10 LSU (10-2)
#11 Boise State (10-1)
#12 Missouri (10-2)
Ironically, the result of the ACC and Big XII Championship Games will not affect these selections one little bit because of these teams, the choices are fairly obvious. If you run a BCS Bowl Game and you’re looking at that list of seven teams, which ones would be most likely to sell every ticket that you give to them? My guess would be Ohio State, Oklahoma, and LSU. However, since Auburn is most likely going to the title game, the Sugar Bowl would love to select an SEC team as an at-large bid and considering that it’s just a 10 hour drive from Fayetteville, Arkansas, to New Orleans I think we can safely assume that Arkansas will pack the house.
So, Missouri is out. Boise State is out (much to the old guard’s delight). LSU is out due to a head to head loss to Arkansas. Oklahoma is either going to get in via the automatic Big XII bid or they will not make it with a 10-3 record. Michigan State was a fantastic story this year but fell short of Ohio State if for no other reason, then the quality of their loss. The Spartans one loss came to an Iowa team that is now 7-5 while Ohio State’s only loss is to #5 Wisconsin. Also, it isn’t as likely that the Michigan State faithful will travel to the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl as well as the two teams above them.
That only leaves two more teams and those will be your last two at-large teams. To recap, barring some sort of terrible disaster this weekend at the hands of Oregon State and/or South Carolina, the BCS participants should be the following teams.
#1 Auburn (12-0)
#2 Oregon (11-0)
#3 TCU (12-0)
#4 Stanford (11-1)
#5 Wisconsin (11-1)
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2) or #13 Nebraska (10-2)
#15 Virginia Tech (10-2) or #21 Florida State (9-3)
Connecticut (7-4)
THE HEISMAN TROPHY
With any luck the elephant in the room just turned out to be some strange show on TV. While I wish that TCU was gearing up to play for the national title against Oregon, I would never wish for Cam Newton’s amazing season to be derailed by recruiting violations. If the story that was posted on espn.com yesterday is true and he had nothing to do with the pay-for-play deal, then I think he should be able to play and I think his father should be ashamed of himself. If it’s not true and Newton did know about it, then he just dodged a bullet and yet another instance of corruption slips through the NCAA cracks.
I’m not saying that NCAA football players should get paid millions of dollar but when this much money and pride is at stake, it’s easy to see the temptation for many of these players. They don’t always come from wealthy families and it’s easy to justify taking a few thousand dollars when your family is on welfare. The NCAA needs to do several things and at the top of that list is get rid of the illusion of the amateur athlete. In principle it’s a very nice concept but what do you say to the Universities getting rich off of the labor of amateur athletes? According to a study done, the University of Florida spent about $80 million on its football program in the four years that Tim Tebow was playing for them. According to that same report, the revenue of the football program over that same time was $280 million. While I understand that Tebow himself was not responsible for that $200 million profit (two SEC championships and two BCS National Championships had quite a bit to do with that), he certainly helped.
Is it fair that the NCAA makes obscene amounts of money and doesn’t even have to pay their workers that are most responsible for it? Not really. I know that the NCAA and university presidents will say that these young men are getting a world class education for free. While that may be true, is $10,000-30,000 a year enough to prevent 18-22 year old kids from being seduced by boosters and agents when very little (if any) of that money is disposable income? You would hope it is but history shows us that it isn’t.
What’s the solution? Adding stipends to scholarships. Maybe $5,000 per semester or per year or something along those lines. I’m not sure but something has to be done and at the top of that list is getting the NCAA to pull its head out of the sand.
UMM, BACK TO THE HEISMAN…
Ah yes, the trophy that I was originally going to talk about in that section. This is one of those years where the decision is easy. I almost wonder if the NCAA expedited their investigation to make things easier on the Heisman Trust (probably not) or the BCS (most definitely). Once they declared Cam Newton eligible and not in violation of NCAA rules, you could have started engraving his name on the trophy right then and there.
I may not be a huge Cam Newton fan, especially since plenty of Heisman winners managed to make it through their college careers without even being accused of something as bad as pay-for-play, but there is no question in my mind that he deserves the Heisman. If there were such a verbose award, he would also get the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision MVP Award. His season is littered with Heisman moments, culminating with his superb second half on the road against #11 Alabama (detractors of Newton will quickly point out that in the first half of that game, Newton was nearly invisible but then again, so was the entire Auburn team).
He ranked second in the nation in passer efficiency at 185.6 (Kellen Moore led at 188.0), throwing 24 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions while completing 67.9% of his passes. He also ranked 10th nationally with 1,336 yards rushing (leading the SEC) and 3rd nationally with 18 rushing touchdowns.
In my mind the only other viable candidate was Kellen Moore. His final numbers (188.0 rating, 3,269 yards on just 311 attempts, 71.1% completing percentage, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions) are gaudy but what really stood out to me was the fact that in his last three games, his overall rating dropped each time and his rating in each of those games was 180.9, 174.1, and 180.1, respectively. He had four games with a rating over 200 and his lowest of the season was 134.1 when he threw three touchdowns without an interception (basically on the road) against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season.
I don’t disagree with Cam Newton getting the Heisman and to be honest, if I had a vote, he’d be my winner. All I’m saying is that I’m hoping Kellen Moore doesn’t get overlooked the way that Boise State did this year.
Well, that’s about all for now. Later I’ll be weighing in after the BCS match-ups to provide predictions and analysis. Until then, get ready for a Saturday full of good football!
Once again we have started our annual dance to try to figure out the permutations that will allow certain teams to leapfrog certain other teams in the annual beauty pageant that the NCAA refers to as the BCS. This year though, thanks to a plucky Wolfpack, it’s a lot more straightforward and the cries of BCS opponents have become somewhat muted. Instead of arguing over who gets to play for the top prize, the arguments this year surround the much less contentious topic of who gets to play in the BCS bowls.
For instance, in the Big Ten, three teams have identical 11-1 (7-1) records, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State and as of this past Sunday, they are ranked 5th, 6th, and 8th, respectively, in the BCS. Under past Big Ten tiebreaking rules, they would have sent the team that was suffering the longest current Rose Bowl drought to Pasadena, which would have sent the Spartans to the parade of roses. However, currently, they simply use whoever is the highest ranked team in the BCS, which will more or less inevitably send the Badgers to the Rose Bowl. While I feel bad for Michigan State, who had a great season, I have a hard time arguing that Wisconsin doesn’t deserve to go given that for several weeks now, they have been the absolute best team in the Big Ten (though I believe that the football gods may be putting them up on a pedestal only to knock them down because of their three victories by scores of 70-23, 70-3, and 83-20).
As much as I am a fan of the underdogs, this simply wasn’t their season. For almost all of last year, I believed that TCU was a more worthy candidate than Boise State and that belief got thrown back in my face in the Fiesta Bowl in the form of a head to head loss to the Smurf Turf Broncos. After that game, I became a believer in Chris Peterson and Kellen Moore along with the other 19 starters they had returning but nobody who mattered seemed to jump on the bandwagon. They started the season 5th in the polls and seemed to be fighting an immense uphill battle, getting leapfrogged in the rankings four times by Oklahoma, Auburn, Oregon, and TCU. Despite winning a de facto road game against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season, they only gained ground but never moved up the rankings. After starting the season at #3, they moved up in the standings just twice and both occurrences were after a leapfrogging team that had pushed them down to #4 lost.
I’m not asking you to feel sorry for Boise State. They knew coming into this season that in order to play for the ultimate prize, they had to be perfect and in the end, they couldn’t do it, losing a heartbreaker to Nevada 34-31, missing two short field goals and getting dominated in the second half. Now all the focus shifts to TCU and unless the Gamecocks can beat Auburn, TCU will have to settle for the Rose Bowl and while that pales in comparison to the BCS National Championship Game, that’s one hell of a consolation prize. Trust me, I’m a fan of the Washington Huskies; I’d love to have my team playing in the Rose Bowl this year.
THE BOWLS
Right now the Bowl picture seems pretty clear but there is still plenty of room for chaos and that all starts Saturday in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. #1 Auburn will play #19 South Carolina in a rematch of one of the few games that Auburn struggled in this year. If the Tigers manage to lose, then TCU will undoubtedly move up to #2 and play Oregon for the national title. However, I do have to mention that Oregon plays Oregon State in the Civil War game and even though the Beavers are 5-6, you always have to take rivalry games seriously because anything can happen.
Barring disaster, Oregon and Auburn will play for all the marbles. TCU and Stanford will get into the BCS party via the “3-4 rule” saying that the 3rd and 4th ranked teams in the BCS are guaranteed BCS Bowl berths. Wisconsin looks all but certain to win the BCS tiebreakers in the Big Ten, which will leave Ohio State and Michigan State hoping for an at-large bid.
The Big XII Championship Game will be one of the more interesting games, pitting #9 Oklahoma against #13 Nebraska. Likewise, the ACC title game between #15 Virginia Tech and #21 Florida State will also be an interesting game as Virginia Tech attempts to finish their undefeated ACC season.
Which leaves the Big East. I never would have expected to write these words in all my life when talking about football… Connecticut controls their own destiny in the Big East. In that respect, it is one heck of a weird season. It is also easy to see why TCU will join the Big East which is quite simply the weakest conference with an automatic BCS bid. I’m very near willing to pencil in TCU for that berth for the next year or two but I digress.
That gives us a total of eight teams in the BCS; who will the last two be? According to BCS rules, the following teams are eligible for at-large bids (excluding those already mentioned above), placed in order of BCS rankings:
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#8 Michigan State (11-1)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2)
#10 LSU (10-2)
#11 Boise State (10-1)
#12 Missouri (10-2)
Ironically, the result of the ACC and Big XII Championship Games will not affect these selections one little bit because of these teams, the choices are fairly obvious. If you run a BCS Bowl Game and you’re looking at that list of seven teams, which ones would be most likely to sell every ticket that you give to them? My guess would be Ohio State, Oklahoma, and LSU. However, since Auburn is most likely going to the title game, the Sugar Bowl would love to select an SEC team as an at-large bid and considering that it’s just a 10 hour drive from Fayetteville, Arkansas, to New Orleans I think we can safely assume that Arkansas will pack the house.
So, Missouri is out. Boise State is out (much to the old guard’s delight). LSU is out due to a head to head loss to Arkansas. Oklahoma is either going to get in via the automatic Big XII bid or they will not make it with a 10-3 record. Michigan State was a fantastic story this year but fell short of Ohio State if for no other reason, then the quality of their loss. The Spartans one loss came to an Iowa team that is now 7-5 while Ohio State’s only loss is to #5 Wisconsin. Also, it isn’t as likely that the Michigan State faithful will travel to the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl as well as the two teams above them.
That only leaves two more teams and those will be your last two at-large teams. To recap, barring some sort of terrible disaster this weekend at the hands of Oregon State and/or South Carolina, the BCS participants should be the following teams.
#1 Auburn (12-0)
#2 Oregon (11-0)
#3 TCU (12-0)
#4 Stanford (11-1)
#5 Wisconsin (11-1)
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2) or #13 Nebraska (10-2)
#15 Virginia Tech (10-2) or #21 Florida State (9-3)
Connecticut (7-4)
THE HEISMAN TROPHY
With any luck the elephant in the room just turned out to be some strange show on TV. While I wish that TCU was gearing up to play for the national title against Oregon, I would never wish for Cam Newton’s amazing season to be derailed by recruiting violations. If the story that was posted on espn.com yesterday is true and he had nothing to do with the pay-for-play deal, then I think he should be able to play and I think his father should be ashamed of himself. If it’s not true and Newton did know about it, then he just dodged a bullet and yet another instance of corruption slips through the NCAA cracks.
I’m not saying that NCAA football players should get paid millions of dollar but when this much money and pride is at stake, it’s easy to see the temptation for many of these players. They don’t always come from wealthy families and it’s easy to justify taking a few thousand dollars when your family is on welfare. The NCAA needs to do several things and at the top of that list is get rid of the illusion of the amateur athlete. In principle it’s a very nice concept but what do you say to the Universities getting rich off of the labor of amateur athletes? According to a study done, the University of Florida spent about $80 million on its football program in the four years that Tim Tebow was playing for them. According to that same report, the revenue of the football program over that same time was $280 million. While I understand that Tebow himself was not responsible for that $200 million profit (two SEC championships and two BCS National Championships had quite a bit to do with that), he certainly helped.
Is it fair that the NCAA makes obscene amounts of money and doesn’t even have to pay their workers that are most responsible for it? Not really. I know that the NCAA and university presidents will say that these young men are getting a world class education for free. While that may be true, is $10,000-30,000 a year enough to prevent 18-22 year old kids from being seduced by boosters and agents when very little (if any) of that money is disposable income? You would hope it is but history shows us that it isn’t.
What’s the solution? Adding stipends to scholarships. Maybe $5,000 per semester or per year or something along those lines. I’m not sure but something has to be done and at the top of that list is getting the NCAA to pull its head out of the sand.
UMM, BACK TO THE HEISMAN…
Ah yes, the trophy that I was originally going to talk about in that section. This is one of those years where the decision is easy. I almost wonder if the NCAA expedited their investigation to make things easier on the Heisman Trust (probably not) or the BCS (most definitely). Once they declared Cam Newton eligible and not in violation of NCAA rules, you could have started engraving his name on the trophy right then and there.
I may not be a huge Cam Newton fan, especially since plenty of Heisman winners managed to make it through their college careers without even being accused of something as bad as pay-for-play, but there is no question in my mind that he deserves the Heisman. If there were such a verbose award, he would also get the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision MVP Award. His season is littered with Heisman moments, culminating with his superb second half on the road against #11 Alabama (detractors of Newton will quickly point out that in the first half of that game, Newton was nearly invisible but then again, so was the entire Auburn team).
He ranked second in the nation in passer efficiency at 185.6 (Kellen Moore led at 188.0), throwing 24 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions while completing 67.9% of his passes. He also ranked 10th nationally with 1,336 yards rushing (leading the SEC) and 3rd nationally with 18 rushing touchdowns.
In my mind the only other viable candidate was Kellen Moore. His final numbers (188.0 rating, 3,269 yards on just 311 attempts, 71.1% completing percentage, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions) are gaudy but what really stood out to me was the fact that in his last three games, his overall rating dropped each time and his rating in each of those games was 180.9, 174.1, and 180.1, respectively. He had four games with a rating over 200 and his lowest of the season was 134.1 when he threw three touchdowns without an interception (basically on the road) against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season.
I don’t disagree with Cam Newton getting the Heisman and to be honest, if I had a vote, he’d be my winner. All I’m saying is that I’m hoping Kellen Moore doesn’t get overlooked the way that Boise State did this year.
Well, that’s about all for now. Later I’ll be weighing in after the BCS match-ups to provide predictions and analysis. Until then, get ready for a Saturday full of good football!
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