One of the more intriguing match-ups that the BCS has provided us with this year is #13 Virginia Tech against #4 Stanford. The Hokies are one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 11 straight games since starting the season with a tough loss to Boise State and a terrible loss to James Madison. On the other hand, the Cardinal are the best “boring” team in college football. What I mean by that is they run a pro style offense that doesn’t feature a quarterback that ran for 1,500 yards or an offense that takes only seven seconds between snaps of the ball. They have a former professional quarterback for a head coach and a future professional quarterback actually playing quarterback. Their only loss this year is to #1 Oregon and if it wasn’t for the Ducks, it’s entirely possible that Stanford would be ramping up to play Auburn for the National Championship.
BY THE NUMBERS
While Virginia Tech had solid rankings on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, Stanford was slightly better in most every area. The Cardinal ranked in the top 32 (or roughly the top quarter of the country) in yards per game (14th), rushing yards per game (17th), passing yards per game (30th), passing efficiency (7th), yards allowed (24th), rushing yards allowed (24th), passing yards allowed (32nd), pass efficiency defense (21st), points scored, and points allowed (11th).
While Stanford outgained their opponents this year by 141 yards per game (467-326), Virginia Tech outgained their opponents by only 63 yards per game (411-348). The point is simply that while the Hokies had a good statistical year, the Cardinal did just about everything just a little bit better.
THE HOKIES WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Tyrod Taylor is one heck of a playmaker and one of the only other times the Cardinal faced a player of his caliber, they were run out of Eugene, Oregon by the Ducks and quarterback Darron Thomas. Taylor had an impressive season this year, completing 60% of his passes at 8.9 yards per attempt with a touchdown to interception ratio of 23-4. On top of that, he rushed for 637 yards and 5 touchdowns.
The Hokies have a host of good players that will be tough for Stanford to deal with if Taylor is distributing the ball well. Other than Taylor, two other players rushed for at least 600 yards with a per carry average of better than 5.5 yards.
This has all the makings of a close game where the team that makes fewer mistakes will win. In games like that, I always have a hard time betting against a Frank Beamer led defense and special teams.
KEY STAT: The Hokies led the nation in turnover margin at +1.38 per game.
THE CARDINAL WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Andrew Luck. The junior completed over 70% of his passes with a yards per attempt rate nearly as good as Taylor’s with his own impressive TD-INT ratio (28-7). While he is a pocket passer primarily, he can tuck the ball and gain chunks of yardage on the ground, evidenced by his 438 yards rushing and his 8.6 yard per carry average. Behind him, sophomore Stephan Taylor rushed for over 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns. This team is very efficient and doesn’t make all that many mistakes due to savvy players and good coaching.
KEY STAT: While the Cardinal didn’t have the best pass rushing (27 sacks) or ball hawking secondary (17 INT) in the country, they were extremely adept and avoiding those pitfalls; as a team, they threw only 7 interceptions and allowed just 5 sacks all year.
THE VERDICT
Stanford isn’t flashy. They don’t have a Heisman winning quarterback and they don’t rush for 300 yards a game while passing for another 200 per game. They aren’t the type of team that scares you with raw athleticism or sheer talent; they are the type that scares you with their deadly efficiency.
After watching Virginia Tech lose to Boise State, I don’t have a great deal of faith in them against a top tier team. After the Broncos took a 17-0 lead, the Hokies shut down Kellen Moore for a good portion of the game but once the game was on the line, Moore took his offense down the field and scored the winning touchdown rather easily against Beamer’s defense. While Kellen Moore and the Broncos were worthy of their high ranking and were a good team, they are not as good as the Cardinal and Moore isn’t as good as Andrew Luck.
Virginia Tech’s winning streak will end in the Orange Bowl.
Stanford 27, Virginia Tech 17
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment