NFL Franchise Power Rankings

While realizing that I am far from the first person to explore a subjective ranking system for NFL teams (and honestly, I’m probably closer to the millionth than the first to explore this option), I’ve decided to go for it nonetheless. However, what I’d like to do is take a little bit of a longer view and instead of focusing on how each team is doing right now I’d like to rank the NFL franchises by their overall outlook.

The first line of numbers you’ll see under each team name is the win-loss record from the past three seasons (2009-2011) and the average point differential per game. The second line is the win-loss record and the point differential from the 2012 season. For some teams (see #1) it shows the remarkable consistency that they have had over the past several years. For others (#’s 3, 7, and 30) it shows how far they’ve come or fallen in the last year or two.

My attempt in ranking the teams is to take a bit of a longer view of the league and each franchise. I don’t want the rankings to be a of-the-moment style power rankings because that can be contingent upon what key players had for breakfast before a big game. Essentially, I’m answering the following question; if I could take over the day to day operations of any franchise, which would I choose? On top of that, once I did take over the franchise, how much work would need to be done to shape the franchise into a long-term contender.

Without further delay, the rankings:

SUPER BOWL CONTENDER DIVISION

1 – New England Patriots
37-11, 10.79
12-4, 14.13

The reasons for this ranking are simple; Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Brady may not be as young as he once was (he’s 35) but the core of skill players around him are very young (top five receivers are, on average, 27, and the leading rusher this year, Stevan Ridley, is 23). As long as Brady is at his distributing best, this offense will be incredibly dynamic.

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots invested heavily in the last few drafts and their defense isn’t a complete joke. If they can continue to improve on the defensive side of the ball while simply maintaining their level of performance on the offensive side of the ball, they will continue to be in the short list of Super Bowl contenders for several more years to come.

2 – San Francisco 49ers
27-21, 3.31
11-4-1, 7.75

The 49ers are the most complete team in the league without question. In an era of explosive offenses, they have a solid, dependable defense. Their running game, led by Frank Gore, is physical and bruising but neither of those are the reason that they are the best team in the league right now. In the minds of many people, including myself, the only thing holding them back from true greatness was the quarterback position. Alex Smith has played very well the past two years but there have always been doubts about his ability to take the team on his back and lead them to victory. Even after his spectacular game against the Saints in the 2011 playoffs, those doubts persisted. While the returns are still very early, Colin Kaepernick looks like the kind of quarterback that can take this team to new heights.

The main issue is the inevitable growing pains with a new quarterback. At times Kaepernick has been brilliant but at times he has looked like a new starter. If you look at this category of teams, all have a dependable, Pro-Bowl level quarterback (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Schaub). The odd man out is clearly Kaepernick. The fact that I’m ranking them number 2 is a testament to the rest of this roster and if they continue to get improvement from their second year starter, the sky is the limit for this team.

3 – Denver Broncos
20-28, -4.29
13-3, 12.00

Of all the teams I’ve put in this first category, the Broncos had the worst record from 2009 to 2011 by five games. This is what Peyton Manning can do for a team.

Last year, they did go 8-8, win the AFC West, and win a playoff game playing a style that would have made the service academies proud. They even won a game completing two passes while attempting eight. I watched it and I couldn’t believe it. Everyone spent so much time talking about Tim Tebow that not nearly enough credit was given to the defense and the special teams who played spectacularly through their seven game winning streak.

Most of that same defense is back and they have played extremely well this year. In addition, with Peyton Manning under center, the offensive line is getting its due. They could afford to upgrade at running back (even though Willis McGahee has done very well for Denver) but to find any serious deficiencies in this team requires some serious nitpicking.

4 – Green Bay Packers
36-12, 10.69
11-5, 6.06

As of week 16 of the season, the Packers have 14 players on injured reserve and two key contributors (James Starks and Charles Woodson) who are out indefinitely but won’t go on injured reserve so they can be eligible to come back this season. On top of that, they basically had a win taken from them by the replacement refs in Seattle. Despite all of that, they won the NFC North again and it’s all because of Aaron Rodgers.

Their defensive personnel will change over the next few years, their personnel in the running game will change, and their receivers and tight ends will change. They will always be a threat to make a January run to another Super Bowl title because Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback and he just turned 29.

I initially had them ranked a little but higher but as long as their defense is this banged up (and when banged up, this bad) I have no choice but to drop them down some. A quarterback can only do so much to make up for the sins of their defense.

5 – Houston Texans
25-23, 2.52
12-4, 5.31

Remember when Gary Kubiak was on the hot seat every year? Last year he did a great job of coaching through various injuries to Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and Mario Williams. Even missing their starting quarterback, they won a playoff game and very nearly went to the AFC Championship Game with their third string quarterback.

The future looks very bright for this franchise but they have not shown an ability to play from behind and depending on your opponent, that can be a major problem. I see this team going as far as Matt Schaub can take them.

I’m inclined to believe that the end of the season (as well as the first few games of the season) were aberrations at both ends of the spectrum caused by small sample sizes. The issue is that the playoffs are the ultimate small sample size and if I had to re-rank teams just for the playoff season, I’d put the Texans much lower. They have a good running game and a great defense anchored by one of the best defensive players in the NFL in JJ Watt. No matter how far the Texans go this year, the future is bright.


DIVISION CONTENDER DIVISION

This is a group of teams that for various reasons are not in the Super Bowl contender category. Obviously, any one of these teams could get hot and win a Super Bowl but unless something changes, I don’t see it happening in the next few years. When I say something needs to change, it might just be a mental block that a team has on playing in the playoffs (see team #6) or it might be that they are on the downslide after a long string of Super Bowl contention (see team #15).

6 – Atlanta Falcons
32-16, 4.50
13-3, 7.50

The Falcons are a team that seems poised to burst onto the scene and become a perennial Super Bowl contender any day now but before they can do that, they need to do something first; win a playoff game. Not make it to the Super Bowl or a conference title game, they have to win a single game in a win-or-go-home playoff atmosphere.

Their last two playoff losses have both been to the eventual Super Bowl champions but they have been in devastating fashion. Two years ago Aaron Rodgers was 31-36 for 366 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Packers’ 48-21 demolition of the Falcons in Atlanta. Last year, the Falcons’ offense put up exactly zero points in a 24-2 loss to the Giants.

This team has it all. They have a good defense, great skill players, and a very good and smart quarterback. They are on the cusp of great things but before they can win the Super Bowl, they have to win a playoff game.

7 – Seattle Seahawks
19-29, -4.19
11-5, 10.44

Everyone ridiculed the Seahawks for spending a third round pick on Russell Wilson. For all of his faults (and by that I mean his height), Wilson is a guy who has won and played well wherever he has played. In a league where the all-time leader for passing yards in a single season is Drew Brees, it’s beyond ridiculous that Wilson should have fallen so far in the draft because he wasn’t tall enough.

The Seahawks are a team with a very good defense and a great running game led by Marshawn Lynch. Adding a good decision maker at quarterback elevates this team even further but the biggest reason they crack my top ten has nothing to do with anything that happens on the field.

The 12th man. The Seahawks have an unbelievable home-field advantage right now. With the team they currently have, going 7-1 or 8-0 at home isn’t an unreasonable assumption which means if they only win half their games on the road, they will be able to get to 11 or 12 wins which increases the likelihood of playing playoff games at home. I’m not sure if they can win the Super Bowl as they are currently constructed but they are definitely a team on the rise.

8 – Indianapolis Colts
26-22, -0.65
11-5, -1.88

I’m sure there are 31 teams in the league that were a little miffed at the Colts this past year. Now, I’m not at all insinuating that the Colts tried to lose intentionally in order to secure the number one overall pick. Last year showed just how good Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are and how much they can add to a team and make the players around them better.

This is a young team with a budding superstar at quarterback. The sky is the limit for this franchise and it looks like they replaced one all-time great with another. From last year to this year, 37 of the 53 roster spots were turned over with new additions from free agency and the draft. As this group of players becomes more familiar with each other and they add a key contributor here and there, it appears that the Colts might be right back at the top of the AFC South where they’ve spent much of the last fifteen years.

9 – Washington Redskins
15-33, -4.67
10-6, 3.00

It would be a completely legitimate question to ask how I can rank the Redskins ahead of 21 teams that have won more game the past three years (only the Browns and Rams have a worse record from 2009-2011) and the answer is very simple; Robert Griffin III.

This team hasn’t been relevant for a long time but this past April they saw a chance to change the direction of the franchise. While the Rams might end up building a good team around Sam Bradford with the picks they got, there is no doubt that the Redskins are now a threat to make the playoffs and/or win the NFC East as long as RGIII is healthy…

But that’s the ultimate rub. He needs to learn how to protect himself. Yes, Kirk Counsins has shown that he is a competent back-up but there’s a big difference between a back-up or even a starting quarterback and a superstar. RGIII is a superstar and the fortunes of the Redskins will be tied to his health for the near future.

10 – Dallas Cowboys
25-23, 1.90
8-8, -1.50

One of these days, I might figure out the Cowboys. They have a very good quarterback, they have excellent skill position players, and they have a decent to good defense. Many have pointed to the culture of the franchise starting with owner Jerry Jones as the main culprit for the failings of the Cowboys over the past, well, 20 years. It’ll be interesting to see if he will be willing to take a step back for the good of the franchise. Personally, I wouldn’t bet on it and as long as Jones runs the whole show, look for this team to underachieve.

11 – New York Giants
27-21, 0.33
9-7, 5.31

From 2009 to 2011, the Giants only made the playoffs one time and that season they were 7-7 with two games to go. They then won six straight including their second Super Bowl win in five years. To be brutally honest, I don’t trust this team. I have seen some truly brilliant and dominating performances from this team followed immediately by games where their practice squad showed up instead of the starters. Because of their recent success, I wanted desperately to put them in the first category but couldn’t bring myself to do so. Sure enough, in week 17, with their odds of making the playoffs being very slim indeed, they played brilliantly in a 42-7 win over the Eagles. Until they can play more consistently, I’d have a very hard time moving them up into the Super Bowl Contender category.

12 – Cincinnati Bengals
23-25, -0.79
10-6, 4.44

There is a lot to like about the Bengals on the heels of back-to-back playoff appearances. Their defense is good and the combination of Andy Dalton and AJ Green has done wonders for this team. If there is one thing I don’t trust about the Bengals franchise, it’s owner Mike Brown. For years, various players have talked about how bad it is to play for the Bengals and for this franchise to take a step forward, that perception will need to change.

Having said that, they are on the uptick at the right time. The Steelers and Ravens are both on the downswing for various reasons so the AFC North is there for the taking. The Bengals won’t be handed anything but they are a promising looking team for the next few years.

13 – Chicago Bears
26-22, 0.25
10-6, 6.13

The Bears started 7-3 last year and 7-1 this year and both times, they looked like one of the most complete teams in the league. The second half of both seasons has shown this isn’t necessarily the case. Can they overtake the Packers to win the division and make sure they play at home in the playoffs? Is Jay Cutler a Super Bowl level quarterback? Lovie Smith took this team to the Super Bowl several years ago with Rex Grossman at QB but can he take them back there?

There are a lot of questions surrounding this team but not many answers.

14 – Baltimore Ravens
33-15, 6.85
10-6, 3.38

Only three teams won more games from 2009-2011 than the Ravens’ 33; the Packers (36), and the Saints and Patriots (37). How can I possibly rank them this low?

Last year looked like it was going to be the breakout year for the Ravens. If one play had gone differently, they would have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl instead of the Patriots. Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady for most of the game but as a team they just couldn’t quite get over the hump. This year, the Ravens have taken a huge step back. Flacco is inconsistent and that’s the nice way to put it. They have one of the best running backs in the game in Ray Rice and they seem to be unable to give him the ball. Their defense, which once upon a time won them a Super Bowl, is old and injured and doesn’t instill the fear it once did.

Their offense can take this team far as presently constructed but their defense is going to need a serious overhaul in the near future and that will determine the viability of this franchise going forward.

15 – Pittsburgh Steelers
33-15, 5.94
8-8, 1.38

This is a team that has won two Super Bowls already but the last few years they haven’t gotten any younger and they just can’t stay healthy. Ben Roethlisberger is beyond deadly on third down but for all of the good players and good coaches associated with this team, their offensive line has been downright dreadful for years. On top of that, their most important defensive player (Troy Polamalu), the one who allows Dick Lebeau to do all of his crazy things has been battling injuries for years.

Like the Ravens, their defense is also getting old and needs to be retooled if they want to compete for another Super Bowl with Big Ben at quarterback.

16 – New Orleans Saints
37-11, 9.46
7-9, 0.44

I firmly believe that the Saints will be one of the more fascinating teams to watch over the next couple years. Three years ago, the Saints were the toast of the league in winning the Super Bowl. Last year, they were the focal point again as their offense set numerous records. This past offseason, they were up front and center yet again for all the wrong reasons with the bounty situation.

This season is showing everyone how much a head coach can mean to a team. Sean Payton is the single biggest missing piece this season and they went from a perennial playoff team to a mediocre team at best. You also can’t forget that they have a new defensive coordinator this year who has had troubles adjusting to the new personnel. If Sean Payton comes back to New Orleans and Steve Spagnuolo continues to progress with this defense, there’s no reason why they can’t move back up these rankings in the next couple years.


THE CURSED MIDDLE DIVISION

In professional sports, the middle is a horrendous area that you never want to be in. If you are in the upper third of the league, you are winning and that means that getting free agents to come play for you will be easier. It also means that you are a more complete team and you are more in need of role players than superstars. If you’re in the lower third of the league, you have lots of needs but the good part is that will lead to losing records which puts you into the top portion of the draft and that way you’ll be more likely to get a once in a generation player (see Luck, Andrew). You have many needs but it’s easier to get that cornerstone player.

The middle is a more difficult position than either one of those. You don’t have a terrible team but you have lots of holes. You’re going to be picking somewhere between 11 and 21 (in the NFL at least) and while you can definitely find good players, you’re never going to be selecting those surefire Pro-Bowlers. While the middle is a more precarious position in the NBA, it’s still difficult in the NFL.

17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17-31, -7.08
7-9, -0.31

The Bucs have the misfortune of playing in a brutal division; one which I would say is one of the best in the league. Finishing third in this division isn’t too much of a knock given what the Saints and Falcons have done the past few years.

Apparently Greg Schiano can have some success in the NFL. He took a team that looked truly pathetic in losing the last ten games of the 2011 season and instilled some pride in it. Josh Freeman looks like he can be a good NFL quarterback and Doug Martin looks like an incredibly dynamic back. The process of building a winning franchise can be lengthy but if they stay the course, they have a good chance of becoming a playoff contender.

18 – Cleveland Browns
14-34, -5.83
5-11, -4.13

Despite their record, the Browns haven’t been a complete pushover this year. They have good young dynamic players on both side of the ball and it’s possible that a new ownership group will bring more winning experience to the franchise (the new owner is a former executive for the Steelers).

As with many teams, the fortunes of the Browns seem to be tied up in the status of Brandon Weeden. He has played well this year but given that he is not a conventional rookie (he’s 29 years old) their window for success with Weeden at quarterback is potentially much shorter than with your typical rookie.

Given the sorry state of the franchise since it came back into the league in 1999, the arrow is definitely pointing up for the Browns. While I don’t think they’ll be playing in the Super Bowl soon, I could potentially see a reversal in the AFC North in the next few years with the Browns and Bengals competing for the title and the Steelers and Ravens having some down years.

Having said that, the past ten years of management of those four franchises says to me that that won’t happen.

19 – St. Louis Rams
10-38, -10.71
7-8-1, -3.06

The Rams are hoping that they found their franchise quarterback a couple years ago in Sam Bradford. They went all-in on that theory when they auctioned off the number two pick in the draft this past year (which became Robert Griffin III).

Jeff Fisher has come in and the Rams are playing better but the single biggest problem they have is that Sam Bradford has very few good players to get the ball to. Stephen Jackson has been the consummate professional through the losing years and just passed 10,000 career rushing yards but he’s 29 and if the past decade has taught us anything, 30 is the end or near the end of productivity for NFL running backs.

Right now they are in the wrong division at the wrong time. The 49ers and Seahawks are poised to compete for playoff spots for the next several years so for the next several years, the best the Rams can hope for is a strong third place, keep developing their young players, and get some offensive weapons around Bradford. If they are able to do that, there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to become a playoff team in the future.

20 – Miami Dolphins
20-28, -1.54
7-9, -1.81

The Dolphins spent a first round, top-ten pick on a quarterback just last year and they’re hoping that Ryan Tannehill is the answer to the question that has plagued Miami since 1999; can we please find a quarterback who will adequately replace Dan Marino?

There’s a lot to like about this team with Reggie Bush having a bit of a resurgence in Miami but if they are going to be successful with Tannehill, they need good players for him to throw the ball to. The Dolphins have famously given up on both Wes Welker and Brandon Marshall in the past several years and those are the type of decisions they can’t make if they want to have any chance of dethroning the mighty Patriots in the AFC East.


WE NEED A QUARTERBACK DIVISION

Quarterback in the NFL is the single most important position in professional sports. It is possible to hide a suspect quarterback for a game and sometimes even for a season but in this era of offensive football, the only way to win and to win consistently is to have stability and excellence from the quarterback position.

21 – Minnesota Vikings
21-27, -0.38
10-6, 1.94

Adrian Peterson is simply phenomenal and he is being wasted with Christian Ponder at quarterback. As I said in the lead-in to this section, you can hide a suspect quarterback with a good running game and defense and that’s exactly what the Vikings have done in 2012.

To put the issue in as stark relief as is possible, the one year out of the past five that they’ve had good quarterback play, they went 12-4 and played in the NFC title game with Brett Favre at quarterback. Given how well Peterson is running, it wouldn’t take much to turn their offense into a serious threat but Ponder does not appear to be the answer.

What Peterson has done this year is truly amazing but I cannot consider them legitimate contenders for the NFC North title until they get more competent play from their quarterbacks. With all of the failings of Chicago and Jay Cutler, he has Pro-Bowl level talent and if they can put it together with the passing game, they will leapfrog the Vikings in the standings. That is the main reason why the Bears are #13 in these rankings and the Vikings (a 2012 playoff team) are just outside the top 20.

22 – Buffalo Bills
16-32, -5.67
6-10, -5.69

The Bills tried to make a big splash in the offseason by acquiring Mario Williams via free agency but they have once again fallen flat and won’t have a winning record for an eighth straight year and they will miss the playoffs for the thirteenth straight year.

Ever since receiving a huge contract extension, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been nothing special and despite some dynamic offensive playmakers, they haven’t beaten a single team with a winning record. Like the Dolphins and Jets, the Bills have the current misfortune of competing with the Patriots during one of the more impressive streaks of sustained success in pro sports history.

23 – Arizona Cardinals
23-25, -2.73
5-11, -6.69

I have the sneaking suspicion that coach Ken Whisenhunt has called Kurt Warner (who turned 41 back in June) at least once this year asking how much he really likes his new job with the NFL Network.

The Cardinals quarterback play has been historically bad this year and one of the truly great receivers is languishing on a terrible team. Having said all of that, I believe they are a good quarterback from once against being a threat in the NFC West. The road to the playoffs is far more difficult now than several years ago with the emergence of Seattle and the dominance of San Francisco but that doesn’t mean they can’t make it.

They have several holes but nothing bigger than the quarterback position. It is the falling tide that is sinking all boats (I know that’s not the saying and it doesn’t make sense but that’s what’s happening in Phoenix this year). A better passing game would lead to a better running game and with their defense, they could be a dangerous team with someone else under center.

24 – Oakland Raiders
21-27, -4.52
4-12, -9.56

The Raiders thought Carson Palmer was the answer but clearly that is not the case. Darren McFadden has been healthy this year but that’s all you can say that’s positive about his season. One could easily argue that there are far more issues than just Palmer (such as a bottom-5 defense) but the fact is that they were 5-3 at the time of the trade and in the driver’s seat in the AFC West.

Carson Palmer has always been a bit overrated as an NFL quarterback but he hasn’t been terrible. The Raiders overpaid for him hoping that he was going to be able to go back to his 2005 form and they got burned for it. Given all they gave up for him, they’ll be paying for this mistake for several years and given the ascendance of Peyton Manning in Denver, don’t look for the Raiders in the playoffs for several years to come.

25 – Tennessee Titans
23-25, -0.48
6-10, -8.81

Chris Johnson rushed for 2,000 yards and since then, he’s been one of the more overpaid players in the entire league. His statement that he can rush for 2,500 yards in a season is beyond ridiculous. I don’t want to focus my wrath on Johnson alone but the Titans were 9-7 last year and were in the mix for the final playoff spot and the fact of the matter is that Johnson is not the same player that he was when he rushed for 2,000 yards in a season. Granted, some of that blame belongs to the passing game and some belongs to the offensive line but whatever the case, he is not the same back and he is certainly not performing as he should be given his salary.

But the quarterback position is also an issue. Jake Locker has had periods of brilliance but he has also not yet shown that he is the long-term answer at the position. Matt Hasselbeck stepped in and played well last year and despite having some good play left in the tank was benched this season (he’s at the top of my I’m-shocked-he’s-not-starting-somewhere list).

Hasselbeck can still be a serviceable starter and Locker has shown flashes of why they drafted him in the top-ten. What the Titans needs is better play around the quarterback position and stability within it.


LOST IN THE WOODS DIVISION

Some teams just need to blow up the roster and the front office and start over again. Very few franchises in any sport are able to compete year in and year out and even they have years here and there when they need to focus on rebuilding their roster, sometimes from the ground up. Only four teams made the playoffs each year from 2009 to 2011, the Saints, Ravens, Packers, and Patriots. Sooner or later, every team has an off year and needs to address some need here or there.

26 – New York Jets
28-20, 3.94
6-10, -5.88

Rex Ryan came into town and made all sorts of bold proclamations. He even made it to the AFC Championship Game in back-to-back years with Mark Sanchez outdueling Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in back-to-back weeks at one point. The past two years have been a train wreck and they added to the ridiculousness by adding Tim Tebow and then not doing anything with him.

The roster is nowhere near as deep as it was several years ago and Mark Sanchez desperately needs a change of scenery. Rex Ryan and their front office have done a terrible job of maintaining the success they had in Ryan’s first two years and it just shows that they are not the answer long-term to run this team. The only thing that’s harder to understand than the performance of the team and the decisions made by the front office are the decisions made by their owner and that’s the one thing that nobody can change.

The Jets need wholesale changes all over their roster and their front office and all the while, the Jets’ nemesis, Bill Belichick, has retooled the Patriots with younger players to supplement his first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. The Dolphins have a promising young quarterback and the Bills look like they are finally fed up with losing. The Jets, meanwhile, owe Mark Sanchez $8.5 million next year.

On top of it all, Rex Ryan emphatically said he is the man for the job with the Jets. That really says about everything you need to know about the level of dysfunction with the Jets.

27 – Detroit Lions
18-30, -3.17
4-12, -4.06

There are many reasons why I feel like this team should be ranked much higher than this. Matt Stafford is one of four quarterbacks to throw for more than 5,000 yards in a season. Calvin Johnson just set the single season record for receiving yards. The Lions defensive line is one of the best in football. When you put all that together, how can you get a bottom five ranking?

I believe the tone of a franchise starts from the top and while Jim Schwartz has brought a much needed edge to this team, it has led to a lack of discipline that has shot them in their collective foot numerous times in the past two years.

This is a team that could become a top ten team if they became more disciplined and developed more of a running game. It would also help if Matt Stafford could develop a more consistent throwing motion but one thing at a time. Last year they were a dynamic offense with Jahvid Best but once Best sustained his last concussion, the Lions appeared to abandon the running game and haven’t been the same since. Now, they are reduced to Stafford throwing the ball to Calvin Johnson and seeing if Suh can get to the quarterback without kicking someone after the play. That is no way to build a team.

28 – Carolina Panthers
16-32, -4.75
7-9, -0.38

This team was 2-14 in 2010 and got to draft Cam Newton number on overall. In his rookie year, they showed great promise in improving to 6-10 and this year, the Panthers were a popular pick to make the leap to becoming a playoff contender.

What they have done is fall flat on their face. Newton has shown his immaturity in dealing with adversity and these losses have shown that they had more holes than just at quarterback in going 2-14.

Overall, the arrow is pointing up for the Panthers because they have a dynamic quarterback who, with any luck and health, will only get better. However, they have a long way to go before they can be considered serious playoff contenders, especially in the same division as the Falcons, Saints, and improved Bucs.

29 – San Diego Chargers
30-18, 5.88
7-9, 0.00

The acquisition of Peyton Manning shifted the balance of power in the AFC West and it won’t be reshuffled anytime soon (I’d say until Manning retires). Phillip Rivers has put up great numbers and many regular season wins in his career but that hasn’t translated to any sort of postseason success. As veteran offensive players have either moved on (LaDanian Tomlinson and Vincent Jackson) or been injured (Antonio Gates), Rivers has been somewhat exposed as the caretaker of a great offense instead of the reason for it.

On top of that, Norv Turner has one again showed that he doesn’t belong as a head coach in the NFL. He took over a team that was at the crest of the wave and had just gone 14-2. They have since fallen very far very fast and the future is bleak for the Chargers.

30 – Philadelphia Eagles
29-19, 4.63
4-12, -10.25

The Eagles immediate future will most likely be tied to who their head coach is next year. Coaching changes always lead to a certain amount of turmoil and except for one notable example (Jim Harbaugh with the 49ers) they lead to a regression in on-field performance as the players have to learn a new system.

Nick Foles has played well but given that he’s a rookie, there’s no way to know how he’ll turn out. The Michael Vick era is clearly at an end in Philadelphia. The Eagles have an overabundance of dangerous skill position players between DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, and Jeremy Maclin but the problem they’ve had the last few years is who gets the ball to all of them?

Given the progress made by the Redskins, the overall talent in Dallas, and Eli Manning, it appears that the Eagles are several years away from serious contention.

Originally, I had the Eagles significantly higher than this but then the news has come out that Andy Reid will be fired after the season. It’s far from confirmed but with a very good accomplished head coach, this team drastically underachieved the past two years. It will take a very special personality to be able to come in and get good results out of this team and if I had to bet on it, I’d say it won’t happen.

31 – Kansas City Chiefs
21-27, -4.50
2-14, -13.38

Romeo Crennel is a good defensive coach but has had little to no success as a head coach. Given that he’s only coached the Browns and the Chiefs, this isn’t all that surprising.

Jamaal Charles has had a great season coming back from injury but that’s about the only bright spot for the Chiefs this year. It’s gotten so bad that the home fans infamously booed Matt Cassell when he got hurt (in one of the more classless moves in the NFL this year).

This year has been a trainwreck for the Chiefs and it starts with the front office. Big changes are needed which means the Chiefs won’t be very competitive for several years to come.

32 – Jacksonville Jaguars
20-28, -5.04
2-14, -11.81

What does it tell you when the Jaguars are doing so poorly to fill the seats in their stadium that they’re considering bringing in Tim Tebow? When you put selling tickets ahead of winning on the field, it says all you need to say about the state of the franchise.