The last game of the 2010-2011 bowl season has the potential to be one of the best national championship games ever. Unfortunately, this has been said before and the last “Greatest Game of All Time” turned into a laugher when Oklahoma got pounded by USC 55-19.
There have been several years over the history of the BCS where the participants in the title game were up for debate and few times have the two teams been the most obvious choices to square off for the hardware. With all due respect to TCU, this is one of those years. I do believe that TCU deserves a shot at the national title but given how they have played this year, I don’t think that TCU should be ranked ahead of either Auburn or Oregon. This game promises to provide plenty of fireworks as neither defense ended up as one of the top in the country while both offenses put up yards and points like few other teams in the country.
The backdrop to this match-up is the entire Cam Newton “Pay-For-Play” fiasco that embroiled the Tigers football program this year. I would love to believe the results of the investigation and say that Cam Newton had no knowledge of what his father was doing but it just seems a little fishy to me that he didn’t know anything at all. Having said that, no evidence of Newton’s wrongdoing has been presented so until proven guilty, he is innocent in my mind and should be eligible to play in this game. I am just worried that five years from now, it will be declared that he had knowledge of the plan all along and his Heisman Trophy will be vacated and the Tigers magical national championship season will be vacated from the record books. Maybe that would be enough for the NCAA to reexamine their policies when it comes to amateur athletes.
Yeah, right…
BY THE NUMBERS
Offensively, the numbers are very similar.
- Oregon ranked 4th in rushing yards per game, Auburn was 6th.
- Oregon was 48th in passing yards, Auburn was 69th.
- Oregon was 2nd in total yards per game, Auburn was 7th.
- Oregon led the nation in points per game, Auburn was 6th.
Defensively, there are some similarities and some differences. Both of these teams were outstanding against the rush, but the numbers are good for different reasons. Auburn ranked 11th against the rush and that ranking is a little more legitimate than Oregon’s ranking of 16th because of the way these two teams took their leads. Likewise, Oregon’s ranking against the pass (56th) is much more inflated than Auburn’s ranking (105th) for the same reason. Auburn was a notoriously slow starting team this year, falling behind numerous times and using a flurry of Cam Newton’s Heismanesque talents to come back in the second half. This means that throughout the game, Auburn’s opponents were most likely trying to utilize a balanced offensive attack and they found that they could chew up yardage through the air but not on the ground.
On the other side, Oregon started somewhat slowly but in the middle of the season when the Blur Offense was at its high octane best, they would start to outpace their opponents late in the second quarter and early in the third. This means that for anywhere from one entire quarter to three entire quarters, Ducks’ opponents had few opportunities for a balanced offense. When you’re trying to make a comeback, you have to air the ball out to get points quickly. Therefore, the passing numbers will be abnormally high and the rushing numbers abnormally low.
What that all means is that Auburn’s run defense is for real and their pass defense is dreadful. On the other side, it just means that Oregon’s defense probably should have been ranked somewhere between 20-40 against both the rush and the pass instead of 16th and 56th. The other important thing to take away from that little bit of conjecture is that there is little doubt around college football circles that Oregon’s defense is in a class above Auburn’s defense and this could be a game where the first team to punt might just lose.
THE TIGERS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
They have Cam Newton. He was one 11 yard completion away from averaging over 200 yards passing and over 100 yards rushing per game. He led the nation in passing efficiency (sidenote: at the time that I wrote about the Heisman Trophy race a few weeks ago, he was second in efficiency to Kellen Moore but passed him with his performance in the SEC title game) with outstanding metrics: 67% completion percentage, 10.52 yards per attempt, and a 28-6 touchdown to interception ratio. On top of all that, he led the SEC in rushing yards.
Let me say that again: HE LED THE SEC IN RUSHING YARDS. The SEC has a history of producing some great running backs and yet this year, nobody in the conference rushed for more yards than a quarterback. The biggest difference that I see between Newton and Michael Vick (the last quarterback to cause this kind of hubbub over his running skills) is defenses were afraid of Vick throwing the ball but considering that he completed only 56.3% of his college passes, they were more afraid of his running ability. Vick was able to run for so many yards with his sheer athleticism and speed.
By contrast, Cam Newton has shown that while he may not be the most polished passer in the FBS ranks right now, he’s still very good and if you put that extra man or two in the box to stop him, he can exploit man coverage in the secondary. Then, if you drop those extra rushers back into coverage and you give him space and time, he will hurt you on the ground. Then you have a big strong, six foot six, two hundred fifty pound guy with long arms running rampant through your secondary. Just try and tackle him.
KEY STAT: Auburn ranked 105th in passing yards allowed, 75th in passer efficiency allowed, and 54th in points per game allowed.
THE DUCKS WILL WIN BECAUSE…
Auburn won’t be able to keep up with the Blur. Chip Kelly has toned back his game planning recently, wanting to get victories to ensure his team’s spot in the top two of the final BCS standings but I would expect that to change completely against Auburn. I would expect the Blur to be at its holy-crap-they-already-snapped-the-ball-again finest.
Auburn is extremely good against the rush but will they be able to maintain that intensity and focus for 60 minutes against the Blur, especially when you consider that they probably won’t get too much help from their secondary. Oregon’s offense was at its scary best when Darron Thomas was hitting receivers downfield and the reason for this is simple. As a defensive lineman, if you stop a rushing attempt for a gain of one yard and you know that from the time the ball is spotted you have seven seconds to get set, you’ll only have to move a few yards to get in position. But what happens when Thomas hits a receiver over the middle for a 20 yard gain? You have to sprint 20 yards to get into position and then line up against an offensive line that has been running those types of sprints all year long. Now you just had to sprint 20 yards and you’re going against a 300 pound guard who isn’t as winded as you and he’s about to square you up and drive you off the line.
It doesn’t sound like it would be a big advantage when you consider that these are the best college football teams in the country but over the course of a 60 minute game, it will wear down Auburn’s defensive line. It wouldn’t surprise me at all for the Tigers to take a lead into halftime and then lose it all in the third quarter, which would set up a fantastic race to the finish in the fourth quarter.
Despite missing their first game due to a team imposed suspension, sophomore LaMichael James still led the nation in rushing yards with 1,682. Even though his stature is small (5’9’’, 185 pounds), he has been very durable this year, surpassing 25 carries on 8 different occasions. We also cannot forget that Thomas is also a competent ball carrier, rushing for nearly 500 yards this year while averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
KEY STAT: Oregon’s defense was very opportunistic, ranking seventh this season in turnover margin at +1.08.
THE VERDICT
Both of these teams have gotten a reputation as being slow starters but it’s for different reasons. In the games that I have watched of theirs’ this year, Auburn struggled offensively in the first half of games. Oregon, however, seemed to be feeling their opponents out and wearing them down, knowing that with the conditioning of their entire team, nobody can stay with them for 60 minutes.
In the second half, the Tigers’ defense would then step up and start coming through with key stops while Cam Newton would do his Heisman thing. Oregon would play roughly the same way that they did in the first half but the difference is that the opposing defense is now exhausted so instead of rushes up the middle for 3 or 4 yards, those carries start going for 10 or 12 yards… or sometimes 75.
The way I see this game panning out is Auburn will take the lead into halftime and everyone will start saying that this is going to be unusual because Newton has brought this team back from 4 second half deficits, in three of which they were still trailing in the fourth quarter. Therefore, a lot of people will jump on the Auburn bandwagon.
In the third quarter, Oregon will simply blow the doors off the place and they will remind people why the Blur Offense is as devastating as it is. Cam Newton will try for one more comeback to cap off his amazing season in the fourth quarter but it will be too little, too late.
Oregon 49, Auburn 45
Showing posts with label Oregon Ducks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oregon Ducks. Show all posts
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Thursday, December 2, 2010
State of Football Address - FBS Edition
The calendar says December now which means that attention has turned from the regular season grind to studying for finals and winter vacation on college campuses all over the country… yeah, right.
Once again we have started our annual dance to try to figure out the permutations that will allow certain teams to leapfrog certain other teams in the annual beauty pageant that the NCAA refers to as the BCS. This year though, thanks to a plucky Wolfpack, it’s a lot more straightforward and the cries of BCS opponents have become somewhat muted. Instead of arguing over who gets to play for the top prize, the arguments this year surround the much less contentious topic of who gets to play in the BCS bowls.
For instance, in the Big Ten, three teams have identical 11-1 (7-1) records, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State and as of this past Sunday, they are ranked 5th, 6th, and 8th, respectively, in the BCS. Under past Big Ten tiebreaking rules, they would have sent the team that was suffering the longest current Rose Bowl drought to Pasadena, which would have sent the Spartans to the parade of roses. However, currently, they simply use whoever is the highest ranked team in the BCS, which will more or less inevitably send the Badgers to the Rose Bowl. While I feel bad for Michigan State, who had a great season, I have a hard time arguing that Wisconsin doesn’t deserve to go given that for several weeks now, they have been the absolute best team in the Big Ten (though I believe that the football gods may be putting them up on a pedestal only to knock them down because of their three victories by scores of 70-23, 70-3, and 83-20).
As much as I am a fan of the underdogs, this simply wasn’t their season. For almost all of last year, I believed that TCU was a more worthy candidate than Boise State and that belief got thrown back in my face in the Fiesta Bowl in the form of a head to head loss to the Smurf Turf Broncos. After that game, I became a believer in Chris Peterson and Kellen Moore along with the other 19 starters they had returning but nobody who mattered seemed to jump on the bandwagon. They started the season 5th in the polls and seemed to be fighting an immense uphill battle, getting leapfrogged in the rankings four times by Oklahoma, Auburn, Oregon, and TCU. Despite winning a de facto road game against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season, they only gained ground but never moved up the rankings. After starting the season at #3, they moved up in the standings just twice and both occurrences were after a leapfrogging team that had pushed them down to #4 lost.
I’m not asking you to feel sorry for Boise State. They knew coming into this season that in order to play for the ultimate prize, they had to be perfect and in the end, they couldn’t do it, losing a heartbreaker to Nevada 34-31, missing two short field goals and getting dominated in the second half. Now all the focus shifts to TCU and unless the Gamecocks can beat Auburn, TCU will have to settle for the Rose Bowl and while that pales in comparison to the BCS National Championship Game, that’s one hell of a consolation prize. Trust me, I’m a fan of the Washington Huskies; I’d love to have my team playing in the Rose Bowl this year.
THE BOWLS
Right now the Bowl picture seems pretty clear but there is still plenty of room for chaos and that all starts Saturday in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. #1 Auburn will play #19 South Carolina in a rematch of one of the few games that Auburn struggled in this year. If the Tigers manage to lose, then TCU will undoubtedly move up to #2 and play Oregon for the national title. However, I do have to mention that Oregon plays Oregon State in the Civil War game and even though the Beavers are 5-6, you always have to take rivalry games seriously because anything can happen.
Barring disaster, Oregon and Auburn will play for all the marbles. TCU and Stanford will get into the BCS party via the “3-4 rule” saying that the 3rd and 4th ranked teams in the BCS are guaranteed BCS Bowl berths. Wisconsin looks all but certain to win the BCS tiebreakers in the Big Ten, which will leave Ohio State and Michigan State hoping for an at-large bid.
The Big XII Championship Game will be one of the more interesting games, pitting #9 Oklahoma against #13 Nebraska. Likewise, the ACC title game between #15 Virginia Tech and #21 Florida State will also be an interesting game as Virginia Tech attempts to finish their undefeated ACC season.
Which leaves the Big East. I never would have expected to write these words in all my life when talking about football… Connecticut controls their own destiny in the Big East. In that respect, it is one heck of a weird season. It is also easy to see why TCU will join the Big East which is quite simply the weakest conference with an automatic BCS bid. I’m very near willing to pencil in TCU for that berth for the next year or two but I digress.
That gives us a total of eight teams in the BCS; who will the last two be? According to BCS rules, the following teams are eligible for at-large bids (excluding those already mentioned above), placed in order of BCS rankings:
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#8 Michigan State (11-1)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2)
#10 LSU (10-2)
#11 Boise State (10-1)
#12 Missouri (10-2)
Ironically, the result of the ACC and Big XII Championship Games will not affect these selections one little bit because of these teams, the choices are fairly obvious. If you run a BCS Bowl Game and you’re looking at that list of seven teams, which ones would be most likely to sell every ticket that you give to them? My guess would be Ohio State, Oklahoma, and LSU. However, since Auburn is most likely going to the title game, the Sugar Bowl would love to select an SEC team as an at-large bid and considering that it’s just a 10 hour drive from Fayetteville, Arkansas, to New Orleans I think we can safely assume that Arkansas will pack the house.
So, Missouri is out. Boise State is out (much to the old guard’s delight). LSU is out due to a head to head loss to Arkansas. Oklahoma is either going to get in via the automatic Big XII bid or they will not make it with a 10-3 record. Michigan State was a fantastic story this year but fell short of Ohio State if for no other reason, then the quality of their loss. The Spartans one loss came to an Iowa team that is now 7-5 while Ohio State’s only loss is to #5 Wisconsin. Also, it isn’t as likely that the Michigan State faithful will travel to the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl as well as the two teams above them.
That only leaves two more teams and those will be your last two at-large teams. To recap, barring some sort of terrible disaster this weekend at the hands of Oregon State and/or South Carolina, the BCS participants should be the following teams.
#1 Auburn (12-0)
#2 Oregon (11-0)
#3 TCU (12-0)
#4 Stanford (11-1)
#5 Wisconsin (11-1)
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2) or #13 Nebraska (10-2)
#15 Virginia Tech (10-2) or #21 Florida State (9-3)
Connecticut (7-4)
THE HEISMAN TROPHY
With any luck the elephant in the room just turned out to be some strange show on TV. While I wish that TCU was gearing up to play for the national title against Oregon, I would never wish for Cam Newton’s amazing season to be derailed by recruiting violations. If the story that was posted on espn.com yesterday is true and he had nothing to do with the pay-for-play deal, then I think he should be able to play and I think his father should be ashamed of himself. If it’s not true and Newton did know about it, then he just dodged a bullet and yet another instance of corruption slips through the NCAA cracks.
I’m not saying that NCAA football players should get paid millions of dollar but when this much money and pride is at stake, it’s easy to see the temptation for many of these players. They don’t always come from wealthy families and it’s easy to justify taking a few thousand dollars when your family is on welfare. The NCAA needs to do several things and at the top of that list is get rid of the illusion of the amateur athlete. In principle it’s a very nice concept but what do you say to the Universities getting rich off of the labor of amateur athletes? According to a study done, the University of Florida spent about $80 million on its football program in the four years that Tim Tebow was playing for them. According to that same report, the revenue of the football program over that same time was $280 million. While I understand that Tebow himself was not responsible for that $200 million profit (two SEC championships and two BCS National Championships had quite a bit to do with that), he certainly helped.
Is it fair that the NCAA makes obscene amounts of money and doesn’t even have to pay their workers that are most responsible for it? Not really. I know that the NCAA and university presidents will say that these young men are getting a world class education for free. While that may be true, is $10,000-30,000 a year enough to prevent 18-22 year old kids from being seduced by boosters and agents when very little (if any) of that money is disposable income? You would hope it is but history shows us that it isn’t.
What’s the solution? Adding stipends to scholarships. Maybe $5,000 per semester or per year or something along those lines. I’m not sure but something has to be done and at the top of that list is getting the NCAA to pull its head out of the sand.
UMM, BACK TO THE HEISMAN…
Ah yes, the trophy that I was originally going to talk about in that section. This is one of those years where the decision is easy. I almost wonder if the NCAA expedited their investigation to make things easier on the Heisman Trust (probably not) or the BCS (most definitely). Once they declared Cam Newton eligible and not in violation of NCAA rules, you could have started engraving his name on the trophy right then and there.
I may not be a huge Cam Newton fan, especially since plenty of Heisman winners managed to make it through their college careers without even being accused of something as bad as pay-for-play, but there is no question in my mind that he deserves the Heisman. If there were such a verbose award, he would also get the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision MVP Award. His season is littered with Heisman moments, culminating with his superb second half on the road against #11 Alabama (detractors of Newton will quickly point out that in the first half of that game, Newton was nearly invisible but then again, so was the entire Auburn team).
He ranked second in the nation in passer efficiency at 185.6 (Kellen Moore led at 188.0), throwing 24 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions while completing 67.9% of his passes. He also ranked 10th nationally with 1,336 yards rushing (leading the SEC) and 3rd nationally with 18 rushing touchdowns.
In my mind the only other viable candidate was Kellen Moore. His final numbers (188.0 rating, 3,269 yards on just 311 attempts, 71.1% completing percentage, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions) are gaudy but what really stood out to me was the fact that in his last three games, his overall rating dropped each time and his rating in each of those games was 180.9, 174.1, and 180.1, respectively. He had four games with a rating over 200 and his lowest of the season was 134.1 when he threw three touchdowns without an interception (basically on the road) against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season.
I don’t disagree with Cam Newton getting the Heisman and to be honest, if I had a vote, he’d be my winner. All I’m saying is that I’m hoping Kellen Moore doesn’t get overlooked the way that Boise State did this year.
Well, that’s about all for now. Later I’ll be weighing in after the BCS match-ups to provide predictions and analysis. Until then, get ready for a Saturday full of good football!
Once again we have started our annual dance to try to figure out the permutations that will allow certain teams to leapfrog certain other teams in the annual beauty pageant that the NCAA refers to as the BCS. This year though, thanks to a plucky Wolfpack, it’s a lot more straightforward and the cries of BCS opponents have become somewhat muted. Instead of arguing over who gets to play for the top prize, the arguments this year surround the much less contentious topic of who gets to play in the BCS bowls.
For instance, in the Big Ten, three teams have identical 11-1 (7-1) records, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State and as of this past Sunday, they are ranked 5th, 6th, and 8th, respectively, in the BCS. Under past Big Ten tiebreaking rules, they would have sent the team that was suffering the longest current Rose Bowl drought to Pasadena, which would have sent the Spartans to the parade of roses. However, currently, they simply use whoever is the highest ranked team in the BCS, which will more or less inevitably send the Badgers to the Rose Bowl. While I feel bad for Michigan State, who had a great season, I have a hard time arguing that Wisconsin doesn’t deserve to go given that for several weeks now, they have been the absolute best team in the Big Ten (though I believe that the football gods may be putting them up on a pedestal only to knock them down because of their three victories by scores of 70-23, 70-3, and 83-20).
As much as I am a fan of the underdogs, this simply wasn’t their season. For almost all of last year, I believed that TCU was a more worthy candidate than Boise State and that belief got thrown back in my face in the Fiesta Bowl in the form of a head to head loss to the Smurf Turf Broncos. After that game, I became a believer in Chris Peterson and Kellen Moore along with the other 19 starters they had returning but nobody who mattered seemed to jump on the bandwagon. They started the season 5th in the polls and seemed to be fighting an immense uphill battle, getting leapfrogged in the rankings four times by Oklahoma, Auburn, Oregon, and TCU. Despite winning a de facto road game against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season, they only gained ground but never moved up the rankings. After starting the season at #3, they moved up in the standings just twice and both occurrences were after a leapfrogging team that had pushed them down to #4 lost.
I’m not asking you to feel sorry for Boise State. They knew coming into this season that in order to play for the ultimate prize, they had to be perfect and in the end, they couldn’t do it, losing a heartbreaker to Nevada 34-31, missing two short field goals and getting dominated in the second half. Now all the focus shifts to TCU and unless the Gamecocks can beat Auburn, TCU will have to settle for the Rose Bowl and while that pales in comparison to the BCS National Championship Game, that’s one hell of a consolation prize. Trust me, I’m a fan of the Washington Huskies; I’d love to have my team playing in the Rose Bowl this year.
THE BOWLS
Right now the Bowl picture seems pretty clear but there is still plenty of room for chaos and that all starts Saturday in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. #1 Auburn will play #19 South Carolina in a rematch of one of the few games that Auburn struggled in this year. If the Tigers manage to lose, then TCU will undoubtedly move up to #2 and play Oregon for the national title. However, I do have to mention that Oregon plays Oregon State in the Civil War game and even though the Beavers are 5-6, you always have to take rivalry games seriously because anything can happen.
Barring disaster, Oregon and Auburn will play for all the marbles. TCU and Stanford will get into the BCS party via the “3-4 rule” saying that the 3rd and 4th ranked teams in the BCS are guaranteed BCS Bowl berths. Wisconsin looks all but certain to win the BCS tiebreakers in the Big Ten, which will leave Ohio State and Michigan State hoping for an at-large bid.
The Big XII Championship Game will be one of the more interesting games, pitting #9 Oklahoma against #13 Nebraska. Likewise, the ACC title game between #15 Virginia Tech and #21 Florida State will also be an interesting game as Virginia Tech attempts to finish their undefeated ACC season.
Which leaves the Big East. I never would have expected to write these words in all my life when talking about football… Connecticut controls their own destiny in the Big East. In that respect, it is one heck of a weird season. It is also easy to see why TCU will join the Big East which is quite simply the weakest conference with an automatic BCS bid. I’m very near willing to pencil in TCU for that berth for the next year or two but I digress.
That gives us a total of eight teams in the BCS; who will the last two be? According to BCS rules, the following teams are eligible for at-large bids (excluding those already mentioned above), placed in order of BCS rankings:
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#8 Michigan State (11-1)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2)
#10 LSU (10-2)
#11 Boise State (10-1)
#12 Missouri (10-2)
Ironically, the result of the ACC and Big XII Championship Games will not affect these selections one little bit because of these teams, the choices are fairly obvious. If you run a BCS Bowl Game and you’re looking at that list of seven teams, which ones would be most likely to sell every ticket that you give to them? My guess would be Ohio State, Oklahoma, and LSU. However, since Auburn is most likely going to the title game, the Sugar Bowl would love to select an SEC team as an at-large bid and considering that it’s just a 10 hour drive from Fayetteville, Arkansas, to New Orleans I think we can safely assume that Arkansas will pack the house.
So, Missouri is out. Boise State is out (much to the old guard’s delight). LSU is out due to a head to head loss to Arkansas. Oklahoma is either going to get in via the automatic Big XII bid or they will not make it with a 10-3 record. Michigan State was a fantastic story this year but fell short of Ohio State if for no other reason, then the quality of their loss. The Spartans one loss came to an Iowa team that is now 7-5 while Ohio State’s only loss is to #5 Wisconsin. Also, it isn’t as likely that the Michigan State faithful will travel to the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl as well as the two teams above them.
That only leaves two more teams and those will be your last two at-large teams. To recap, barring some sort of terrible disaster this weekend at the hands of Oregon State and/or South Carolina, the BCS participants should be the following teams.
#1 Auburn (12-0)
#2 Oregon (11-0)
#3 TCU (12-0)
#4 Stanford (11-1)
#5 Wisconsin (11-1)
#6 Ohio State (11-1)
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#9 Oklahoma (10-2) or #13 Nebraska (10-2)
#15 Virginia Tech (10-2) or #21 Florida State (9-3)
Connecticut (7-4)
THE HEISMAN TROPHY
With any luck the elephant in the room just turned out to be some strange show on TV. While I wish that TCU was gearing up to play for the national title against Oregon, I would never wish for Cam Newton’s amazing season to be derailed by recruiting violations. If the story that was posted on espn.com yesterday is true and he had nothing to do with the pay-for-play deal, then I think he should be able to play and I think his father should be ashamed of himself. If it’s not true and Newton did know about it, then he just dodged a bullet and yet another instance of corruption slips through the NCAA cracks.
I’m not saying that NCAA football players should get paid millions of dollar but when this much money and pride is at stake, it’s easy to see the temptation for many of these players. They don’t always come from wealthy families and it’s easy to justify taking a few thousand dollars when your family is on welfare. The NCAA needs to do several things and at the top of that list is get rid of the illusion of the amateur athlete. In principle it’s a very nice concept but what do you say to the Universities getting rich off of the labor of amateur athletes? According to a study done, the University of Florida spent about $80 million on its football program in the four years that Tim Tebow was playing for them. According to that same report, the revenue of the football program over that same time was $280 million. While I understand that Tebow himself was not responsible for that $200 million profit (two SEC championships and two BCS National Championships had quite a bit to do with that), he certainly helped.
Is it fair that the NCAA makes obscene amounts of money and doesn’t even have to pay their workers that are most responsible for it? Not really. I know that the NCAA and university presidents will say that these young men are getting a world class education for free. While that may be true, is $10,000-30,000 a year enough to prevent 18-22 year old kids from being seduced by boosters and agents when very little (if any) of that money is disposable income? You would hope it is but history shows us that it isn’t.
What’s the solution? Adding stipends to scholarships. Maybe $5,000 per semester or per year or something along those lines. I’m not sure but something has to be done and at the top of that list is getting the NCAA to pull its head out of the sand.
UMM, BACK TO THE HEISMAN…
Ah yes, the trophy that I was originally going to talk about in that section. This is one of those years where the decision is easy. I almost wonder if the NCAA expedited their investigation to make things easier on the Heisman Trust (probably not) or the BCS (most definitely). Once they declared Cam Newton eligible and not in violation of NCAA rules, you could have started engraving his name on the trophy right then and there.
I may not be a huge Cam Newton fan, especially since plenty of Heisman winners managed to make it through their college careers without even being accused of something as bad as pay-for-play, but there is no question in my mind that he deserves the Heisman. If there were such a verbose award, he would also get the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision MVP Award. His season is littered with Heisman moments, culminating with his superb second half on the road against #11 Alabama (detractors of Newton will quickly point out that in the first half of that game, Newton was nearly invisible but then again, so was the entire Auburn team).
He ranked second in the nation in passer efficiency at 185.6 (Kellen Moore led at 188.0), throwing 24 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions while completing 67.9% of his passes. He also ranked 10th nationally with 1,336 yards rushing (leading the SEC) and 3rd nationally with 18 rushing touchdowns.
In my mind the only other viable candidate was Kellen Moore. His final numbers (188.0 rating, 3,269 yards on just 311 attempts, 71.1% completing percentage, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions) are gaudy but what really stood out to me was the fact that in his last three games, his overall rating dropped each time and his rating in each of those games was 180.9, 174.1, and 180.1, respectively. He had four games with a rating over 200 and his lowest of the season was 134.1 when he threw three touchdowns without an interception (basically on the road) against #10 Virginia Tech to start the season.
I don’t disagree with Cam Newton getting the Heisman and to be honest, if I had a vote, he’d be my winner. All I’m saying is that I’m hoping Kellen Moore doesn’t get overlooked the way that Boise State did this year.
Well, that’s about all for now. Later I’ll be weighing in after the BCS match-ups to provide predictions and analysis. Until then, get ready for a Saturday full of good football!
Sunday, December 13, 2009
BCS Preview: Rose Bowl
The Bowl Championship Series this year starts with the granddaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl. This year’s edition matches the Big Ten Champion, the Ohio State Buckeyes, against the Pac-10 Champion, the Oregon Ducks. This game features two drastically contrasting styles of play and it is in those contrasts that this game may very well be decided.
By the Numbers
Ohio State under Jim Tressel relies on defense and special teams with just enough offense. While they scored 30 or more points 7 times, they broke 40 just once and their average (29.25) ranked 47th in the country. The only two games in which they failed to score 20, they lost. On the flipside of the coin, they allowed more than 20 points just three times and they won two of those games. Behind the strength of their 5th ranked defense, they allowed just 12.2 points per game.
The Ducks, on the other hand, scored 40 or more points 7 times and scored at least 30 in another 3 games. They like to move the ball up and down the field and because of that, they ranked very well in offense (6th in rushing, 25th in total offense), and relatively poorly on the defensive side of the ball. They were 38th against the run, 37th against the pass, and 32nd overall, allowing 23.6 points per game. Four times the Ducks allowed 30 or more points and Heisman Finalist Toby Gerhart and Stanford gashed the Oregon defense for 254 rushing yards (223 by Gerhart), 251 passing yards, and 51 points.
Why the Buckeyes Will Win
Jim Tressel is one of the best coaches in America. Ohio State boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Terrelle Pryor is one of the premier playmakers at the quarterback position, although still an unfinished product as a sophomore. One of their defensive strengths (against the run) matches up against Oregon’s offensive strength (running the ball). Lastly, the Buckeyes were 4th in the country in turnover margin.
Why the Ducks Will Win
It has been quite a while since Ohio State won a big game and even longer since they won a BCS Bowl. On the other side, the last time Oregon played in a BCS game, they beat up Colorado in the 2002 Rose Bowl 38-16. They fashioned themselves as a top-10 team and a national title contender earlier this year before they lost badly to Boise State (19-8) and then later to Stanford (51-42). All of this means they will have a chip on their shoulder and will come out gunning in an attempt to finish the season with some momentum and build towards another title run next year. LaMichael James stepped in for LaGarrette Blount after the Boise State game and rushed for 1,476 yards and 14 touchdowns but the key to this game for Oregon will be Jeremiah Masoli. The junior had a passer rating of 133.7 and did show that he could throw the ball when called upon (334 yards against Stanford) but the key will be his running ability. He rushed for 50 or more yards 7 times and if he is able to take pressure off of LaMichael James, the Ducks could fly to victory.
The Verdict
This game features a very tough match-up for the Buckeyes. They are going against a defense that I would categorize as “above average” to “good”. The Buckeyes need to stay disciplined and within their game plan. There is definitely the potential to look at the Ducks defense and their body of work and say “we can outscore them”. The problem is, the strength of the Ducks is their offense. The more you score, the more you give the ball to that high powered offense. Ohio State cannot get into a shootout or they will find themselves trailing and a ball control offense is not conducive to making comebacks. If they can keep the score in the teens or twenties, the Buckeyes will win. Anything past that and Oregon has a distinct advantage.
Oregon 31, Ohio State 21
By the Numbers
Ohio State under Jim Tressel relies on defense and special teams with just enough offense. While they scored 30 or more points 7 times, they broke 40 just once and their average (29.25) ranked 47th in the country. The only two games in which they failed to score 20, they lost. On the flipside of the coin, they allowed more than 20 points just three times and they won two of those games. Behind the strength of their 5th ranked defense, they allowed just 12.2 points per game.
The Ducks, on the other hand, scored 40 or more points 7 times and scored at least 30 in another 3 games. They like to move the ball up and down the field and because of that, they ranked very well in offense (6th in rushing, 25th in total offense), and relatively poorly on the defensive side of the ball. They were 38th against the run, 37th against the pass, and 32nd overall, allowing 23.6 points per game. Four times the Ducks allowed 30 or more points and Heisman Finalist Toby Gerhart and Stanford gashed the Oregon defense for 254 rushing yards (223 by Gerhart), 251 passing yards, and 51 points.
Why the Buckeyes Will Win
Jim Tressel is one of the best coaches in America. Ohio State boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Terrelle Pryor is one of the premier playmakers at the quarterback position, although still an unfinished product as a sophomore. One of their defensive strengths (against the run) matches up against Oregon’s offensive strength (running the ball). Lastly, the Buckeyes were 4th in the country in turnover margin.
Why the Ducks Will Win
It has been quite a while since Ohio State won a big game and even longer since they won a BCS Bowl. On the other side, the last time Oregon played in a BCS game, they beat up Colorado in the 2002 Rose Bowl 38-16. They fashioned themselves as a top-10 team and a national title contender earlier this year before they lost badly to Boise State (19-8) and then later to Stanford (51-42). All of this means they will have a chip on their shoulder and will come out gunning in an attempt to finish the season with some momentum and build towards another title run next year. LaMichael James stepped in for LaGarrette Blount after the Boise State game and rushed for 1,476 yards and 14 touchdowns but the key to this game for Oregon will be Jeremiah Masoli. The junior had a passer rating of 133.7 and did show that he could throw the ball when called upon (334 yards against Stanford) but the key will be his running ability. He rushed for 50 or more yards 7 times and if he is able to take pressure off of LaMichael James, the Ducks could fly to victory.
The Verdict
This game features a very tough match-up for the Buckeyes. They are going against a defense that I would categorize as “above average” to “good”. The Buckeyes need to stay disciplined and within their game plan. There is definitely the potential to look at the Ducks defense and their body of work and say “we can outscore them”. The problem is, the strength of the Ducks is their offense. The more you score, the more you give the ball to that high powered offense. Ohio State cannot get into a shootout or they will find themselves trailing and a ball control offense is not conducive to making comebacks. If they can keep the score in the teens or twenties, the Buckeyes will win. Anything past that and Oregon has a distinct advantage.
Oregon 31, Ohio State 21
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