It’s been a long time since I’ve written in this space and for those of you who have opened my blog and come away disappointed in the past few months, I sincerely apologize. However, there are aspects of my life that take precedence over a blog that, while I love writing in it, I don’t get paid to write in it.
My goal here is simply to touch base on the events of the past few months and give my perspective, a task that looks almost Herculean. In the past three months, we have had the highest profile free agent in the history of the NFL, we’ve had a team with a subpar record win four games against teams with better records to claim the Super Bowl, we’ve had a relatively unexpected team claim that aforementioned free agent, we’ve had a commissioner flex his incredible muscle in ways never seen before, and we’ve seen Tim Tebow lead his team to a playoff win. The most exciting part? That was only the headlines from the last three months in the NFL.
Because I am going to be writing about a lot of different things, I thought I’d give you a little list of the topics I’m going to touch on so you know what you’re getting into:
- Bounties
- Peyton Manning
- The Denver Broncos
- The New York Giants and Tournaments
- Tim Tebow
- March Madness
- Opening Day is Almost Here!
BOUNTIES
Unfortunately, I have to start with quite possibly the ugliest story of the winter. In what I gather is an incredibly extensive report compiled by the NFL, the New Orleans Saints defensive players (at least 22-27 of them) under the direction of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, ran a bounty system where cash bonuses were given out for big hits and additional payouts were made for “knock-out” hits or “cart-off” hits where the player that was hit had to be carted off the field. He has been suspended indefinitely and he will not have the possibility of getting his job back for a year.
Head Coach Sean Payton either knew about it and did nothing or should have known about it. General Manager Mickey Loomis also falls into that category. Payton was suspended for a year (effective April 1st) and Loomis was suspended for 8 games (starting after the conclusion of the last preseason game). The severity of their suspensions is unprecedented but before you wonder why it was so harsh, you have to remember a few key factors. First, as I said before, they either knew or they should have known. Second, they were specifically told by the NFL to cease and desist this bounty program several years ago and all evidence points to the fact that they both did nothing about it. That level of arrogance is something that leagues always despise and leagues (either professional or amateur) feel the need to remind coaches, players, and teams that nobody is above the sport. Lastly, this commissioner is serious about making the sport safer for its players. When you add all of that together, you get fines and suspensions the like of which the NFL (or any other professional league, for that matter) has never seen.
In my opinion, this is what Roger Goodell had to do. According to ESPN legal analyst Lester Munson, the NFL has been named in more than 650 lawsuits by former players who are claiming (essentially) that the league did not do enough to protect them from the dangers of playing football. Truthfully, if you look at the incidence of severe brain damage amongst former players, you realize that some of these lawsuits might have a point. One of the largest issues with regards to the lawsuits that are specifically talking about head injuries is until recently we as a society haven’t known that much about concussions. How much did the NFL really know about head injuries back in the 60’s and 70’s? That is a question that these lawsuits will have to try to answer.
In the meantime, there is nothing that the NFL and Commissioner Goodell can do about what the NFL said or did forty years ago. All they can do is control the present and the future of the league and with these penalties, Goodell has sent a powerful message. The days of the NFL being a gladiatorial league are nearing an end and the more finesse type players are succeeding more than ever.
The last step that remains to be seen in this saga is what happens to the two dozen players that were involved in this program. They will be punished but Goodell is very wisely seeking counsel from the union with regards to their punishments. If the union balks at penalties, Goodell can use that to say that he is more serious about player safety than the union is. If the union thinks the penalties are too light, then Goodell has free reign to enact even harsher punishments. His job is to protect this league and he is wielding that power and wielding it well.
PEYTON MANNING
Never in the history of the NFL has a player with as sparkling a resume as Manning’s become a free agent. The NFL’s collective bargaining agreement is set up to restrict player movement and help keep players like Manning in cities like Indianapolis (the 21st largest TV market in the country). The entire concept of the franchise tag was to give teams an extra year to negotiate a long-term contract with a star player. That’s not exactly how it’s been used and now many players view it as an insult to be tagged in the first place and yet, when a new collective bargaining agreement was being negotiated, never did the player’s union try to do away with the franchise tag. The problem is that the franchise tag isn’t a bad idea; the player gets a one year contract that is guaranteed to be the average of the top five contracts at that position and the team gets another year to work out a long term deal.
Nonetheless, the five year contract that the Colts signed with Peyton Manning a year ago caused this situation to come to a head far sooner than it usually does. Rather than pay Manning a roster bonus of $28 million, the Colts decided to cut him. As cold and ruthless and heartless as it sounds, it was the best decision for both sides. Now the Colts can move on and rebuild their franchise from the ground up starting with a new general manager, coach, and quarterback. Meanwhile, Manning is free to chase down a second Super Bowl ring with another team. After a lengthy process in which he spoke to representatives from several teams, Manning signed a five year contract with the Denver Broncos potentially worth $96 million and the obvious question that follows is whether or not he is worth that much coming off of four neck surgeries.
First and foremost, with regards to the actual surgery, his neck is not in any more jeopardy than anyone else who plays professional football. The issue is that a nerve that controls his right triceps muscles needs to regenerate so he can regain strength in that muscle group. Without that strength, he won’t be able to throw a football consistently. All I have to say is this: if he wasn’t on the right track to be able to start and play effectively in September, the Broncos would not have tied the next five years of their franchise to Manning’s wagon.
So what can he bring to the Broncos? He brings a level of football genius that few have ever brought to the field. The Broncos have a talented young core of receivers and a terrific offensive line and both will instantly become much better with Manning under center. If you remember, the Broncos are coming off of a year where they went 8-8 with a defense that was solid and at times brilliant; their offense was the problem last year and even if you figure that Manning won’t add more than 7 points a game versus Tim Tebow (and I believe he’s worth much more than that) their record last year would have been 12-4.
Peyton Manning is the greatest player ever to play the position of quarterback. I know that I wrote otherwise in this space some time ago but nobody has ever brought more to the position. Other quarterbacks have thrown for more yards, others have won more games, and others have won more Super Bowls but none have combined the physical skills with the ridiculous level of intellect that Manning has brought to the position. I am simply glad that his career didn’t end on an injury and now he has the opportunity to go out on whatever terms he wants. I’d also be lying if I said that I’m also glad that he has the chance to supplant Brett Favre in the record books.
THE DENVER BRONCOS
The Broncos? You mean that team with the college quarterback? Yep, that was the team that Manning chose and I believe that it comes down to one thing; John Elway. I gather that the two of them are friends and that they play golf occasionally but that’s not why he was a big factor. John Elway was a great quarterback, won two Super Bowls and was a lock for the Hall of Fame when he became eligible back in 2004. Most importantly, he followed that brilliant playing career with a so far successful career in the front office of an NFL franchise and I think that’s what Manning wants to do after he’s done playing. I think he wants to learn from a guy who has had success at that level because it’s far from a given. If you want an example of how former players don’t necessarily do well in the front office, look no further than Matt Millen. In the seven full seasons that he was the CEO and general manager of the Detroit Lions, they went 31-81 and made many of the worst draft picks of the decade.
The last thing that you have to remember about Elway is that he was not only an amazing athlete who probably could have gone to the Hall of Fame as a baseball player had he not chosen football (he hit .361 with 9 home runs and 50 RBI as a senior at Stanford). He is also a very smart person and he received a bachelor’s degree in economics from Stanford. Likewise, Peyton Manning is a very smart person who finished his degree in three years at Tennessee but decided to come back for his senior season.
For anyone out there who thought he might have gone somewhere else, played for a few years and then moved straight up to the front office, I don’t think that was in Manning’s mind. Besides, who says that he has to move to the front office of whatever team he signed with? I have no doubt that he will not be a part of the Broncos front office largely because of John Elway. He’ll play in Denver for a few years and then he’ll get a job running someone else’s team after (or more likely before) he gets enshrined in Canton.
THE NEW YORK GIANTS AND TOURNAMENTS
For the second time in four years, the New York Giants came into the Super Bowl with a record significantly worse than the Patriots (four games this year versus six games worse in 2008). I could go on and on talking about the similarities between Super Bowl XLII and XLVI but there is a different point I would like to talk about. In the last five years, the Super Bowl has featured two 9 wins teams and two 10 win teams and the last two years the NFL’s biggest game has been won by a 10-6 team (Packers) and a 9-7 team (Giants). It is time to stop saying that the best team wins the Super Bowl. The best teams make the playoffs and that’s it.
The same thing can be said about the NCAA tournament; the best teams make the tournament but the best teams rarely win it anymore. I know that series are impractical when it comes to college basketball and the NFL but the fact of the matter is that if two teams play once, anything can happen but if two teams played a seven game series, it is extremely difficult for the lesser team to win.
This is one of the beauties of the BCS. In the short history of the BCS, many arguments can be made about which teams belong in the national championship game but you will never be able to say that 29% of teams had a better won-loss record than the BCS champion (9 of the other 31 teams had more wins than the Giants’ 9).
TIM TEBOW
This is one of the issues I have with the average sports fan and let me know if you’ve ever heard anything like this before: “I am a huge Tim Tebow fan so there’s nothing the Broncos can do at QB that will be better than that.”
That statement is ludicrous. There is no circumstance in which the Broncos are better off with Tebow at quarterback instead of Peyton Manning. If you watched the last few games of the season last year (as I did) you would see that defenses were starting to figure out how to play against Tim Tebow. Smother the receivers and make Tebow throw into small windows. In the last four regular season games (in which they went 1-3) the Broncos scored 13, 23, 14, and 3 points and that 23 point outburst against the Patriots would have been less had it been a closer game.
“But what about the playoff game against the Steelers?! He was 10-21 for 316 yards and two touchdowns!”
Yes, he was. And half the starting quarterbacks in the league would have been able to put up better numbers against that defense. On the final play of the game, an 80 yard strike to Demaryius Thomas, the deepest Steelers defender was less than ten yards off the line of scrimmage. Tebow simply had to lay the ball out in front of Thomas and then let him sprint the final 60 yards into history. He did play well against the Steelers but it was because the Steelers defense dared him to beat them and then NEVER ADJUSTED. Tebow burned them in the second quarter and in the second half, the Steelers didn’t change their defensive attack, a true failure on the part of the Steelers coaches.
Here’s the interesting thing; I like Tim Tebow. I’ve liked him since he was jumping in the air and throwing horrible passes as an 18 year old freshman on Florida’s national title winning team. I liked him even more the next year when he played with a reckless abandon and an enthusiasm that was very refreshing (and still is). The fact of the matter is that he is a great football player and a bad quarterback. He never should have been drafted in the first round. He should have been a third round pick who would get into the game for 5-10 snaps a game and when he’s in the game, nobody knows what is going to happen. Putting him alongside a Tom Brady (Bill Belichick was interested in Tebow) would be very interesting; much the way he was the change-of-pace QB as a freshman behind Chris Leak at Florida.
I hope that he does well with the New York Jets but I also think that the Jets’ brass underestimates the phenomenon that is Tebow-mania. While I don’t claim to be an expert, I live in the Denver metro area and experienced it first-hand last year. The fact of the matter is that John Elway and John Fox were hired after Tim Tebow was drafted and he wasn’t the type of QB that the Johns wanted. It’s unfortunate but it’s the fact of the matter and Elway and Fox have been around the NFL for a long time and have seen what wins and what doesn’t. Traditionally, quarterbacks like Tebow don’t win in the NFL.
MARCH MADNESS
There are things going on in the world of sports that have nothing to do with the NFL. 9 days ago, something happened that has never happened since the tournament expanded to 64 teams; two teams seeded 15th beat two teams seeded 2nd. Despite a scare near the end of the game, number one seed Syracuse survived the first round and did not become the first #1 to lose to a #16 seed but at this point I believe it is becoming more a psychological problem. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, #1 seeds have a record of 112-0 in the first round and for a team coming off of a small conference tournament championship, that is a huge hill to climb before you ever step on the floor.
Someday a #16 will beat a #1 and at that point the spell will be broken. I’m not saying that a #1 seed will lose every year but right now there is a mystique about the 1-16 game and it has so far been impossible for the lower seeds to break. In the 3-14 games, the lower seeds do not have a very good chance of winning and rarely do but every coach of every #14 seeded team can point to the 16 teams seeded #14 that have won a first round game for inspiration.
This year, the basketball has been great and, as always, extremely hard (for me) to predict. I tried something new this year and went with the Blindfolded Bracket feature on the website of the Wall Street Journal. While my picks this year have not been terrible, I would have been much better off simply picking the higher seeded teams.
Heading into the first games of the Elite Eight (later today) Kentucky is looking like the team to beat. Nobody else has been able to match their level of domination in their first three games and the single biggest threat to them just lost one of their biggest playmakers (North Carolina and point guard Kendall Marshall).
My Saturday picks: Florida over Louisville and Ohio State over Syracuse.
My Sunday Picks: Kentucky over Baylor and Kansas over North Carolina.
Final Four: Kentucky over Florida and Kansas over Ohio State.
For the title game, I picked Kansas in my bracket to go all the way but right now if I had to do it all over again, I’d pick Kentucky. Wildcats over Jayhawks.
OPENING DAY IS ALMOST HERE!
To me the theme of the free agency period for Major League Baseball was, if you have a player at position who can’t play another position, go get another player who plays the same position!
The three biggest free agent acquisitions (amongst position players) were Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and Jose Reyes (in alphabetical order). The issue is the teams that got them already had Miguel Cabrera, Kendrys Morales, and Hanley Ramirez. Now, if all six of those players were outfielders, this really wouldn’t be all that big an issue and for two of the three teams, there is a built-in apparatus to have these pairings work (the DH). The problem is that four of them are first basemen and the other two are shortstops.
The incumbents (Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera) are doing the right thing and are moving to third base but the problem is that third base is not where you put a guy to hide his glove. Third base is a very important defensive position and a substandard defender can be a serious problem if the guy playing there isn’t completely committee to his glove.
The Tigers and Angels have a serious leg up on the Marlins in these scenarios because of the designated hitter. The Tigers can play an octopus with seven gloves and a wicked throwing arm at third base and it won’t hurt them offensively because Cabrera and Fielder can split time and first base and DH.
I see the biggest problem in Miami with the Marlins (man, saying Miami Marlins sounds weird). Hanley Ramirez is a supreme talent who is two years removed from a slash line of .342/.410/.543. He did miss time with injuries last year but his slash line was a horrendous .243/.333/.379 and on top of that he has shown a serious lack in maturity in the past few years. He has said that he is willing to move to third base to accommodate Jose Reyes but how long will that last if Reyes struggles or if Ramirez struggles at third base?
So what does this mean for the upcoming season? The Angels have thrust themselves into the World Series discussion with the signing of both Pujols and CJ Wilson. Not only did they make their good rotation deeper, but they also hurt a key rival in Texas (Wilson’s team from a year ago). The Yankees and Red Sox will be there again but no team in the AL combines the lineup depth with the rotation depth that the Angels have. Having said that, I still have to say that the Rangers are the favorites to go back to the World Series since they have won the last two AL championships.
In the NL, the race is wide open. I don’t think the Marlins added enough to win the NL East this year. The Phillies are still going to be a favorite because of their rotation and the Nationals could be a dark horse contender if they stay healthy. In the central, the Cardinals lost a lot in Pujols but they get Adam Wainwright back from Tommy John surgery so they will again be favored to win the weak NL Central.
My way-too-early prediction: Albert Pujols will haunt the Cardinals as the Angels beat St. Louis in the World Series.
…
If you’ve managed to make it to the end of this, I applaud and I thank you. It’s been a busy few months for me and I haven’t been able to write in this space nearly as much as I would like and I’m going to try to write much more in the coming weeks and months. I plan to write more about the Broncos and Peyton Manning (since they plan their home games less than 10 miles from my house), I plan to write more about the Saints and why I as a former athlete hate the thought of the bounty program that they ran. I also plan to write more about the differing business models between the major sports, why they are different, and what the owners want their business models to be.
Until next time, enjoy the March Madness while it lasts!
Showing posts with label Tim Tebow. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tim Tebow. Show all posts
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Football 2011
Before I delve into the bulk of this post, which will be about the NFL, I feel compelled to say a few words about the now annual chaos that is the BCS. From a fan’s perspective, I love the chaos. #2 Oklahoma State, #4 Oregon, and #5 Oklahoma all lost this weekend with only one of them (OSU) losing to a ranked team. Now, it very much looks like when everyone wakes up Monday morning, SEC teams will be ranked #1 (LSU), #2 (Alabama), and #3 (Arkansas). Still on the far outside looking in is undefeated Houston, now 11-0 and ranked #11 before this weekend’s action. Note to Cougars fans – you cannot play for the BCS championship when your signature win is over UCLA.
Chaos is good and bad for the BCS. It makes it far more difficult to determine who the two best teams in the country are. However, when it comes to the actual BCS bowl games, you have far more quality teams and therefore the potential for better match-ups and more viewership. The nightmare scenario right now for the BCS would be if Arkansas can beat LSU next weekend. Then the only undefeated team would be one that hasn’t played anyone significant and while it might be easy to eliminate them from the national title conversation, how do you eliminate… umm, anyone else?
The BCS is overdue for a restructuring and the rumor is that it’s coming in the next couple of years. The most interesting scenario which I’d personally love to see is the BCS would be responsible for the national championship game only. Their formula would determine the top two teams in the country and they could then receive bids for stadiums to host that game (Jerry Jones and a (almost) record BCS crowd at Cowboys Stadium anyone?). The advantage to this idea is that gone would be some of the most unpopular aspects of the BCS. There would be no automatic qualifying conferences so Connecticut would not be forced to get hammered by a top ten Oklahoma team. There would no longer be a two team limit, which is going to completely screw the SEC this year (under current rules, if Georgia were to beat LSU in the SEC Championship Game, the SEC would potentially have teams at 12-1, 11-1, 11-2, and 10-2 and they could all be ranked in the top ten and deserving of a trip to a BCS bowl… and only two of them can go.
Lastly (for the NCAA section), do I think there will be a playoff someday in big-time college football? Absolutely not. Do I think there should be one? No, I don’t and the reason is simple. Under the current format, you have to play perfectly to make it to the title game and win it all. Last March was one of the more exciting NCAA Men’s Basketball Championships that I’ve ever seen but does anyone out there (outside of Indianapolis and Storrs, Connecticut) think that Butler and Connecticut were the two best basketball teams in the country? Of course they weren’t. They played the best over that month-long tournament; they got to the final not because they were the best team but because they were the hottest team. If you change the FBS system to a playoff, the same thing will start to happen. When I look at the list of NCAA Division-I FBS champions, I know that they were one of the best teams in the country. You can rarely say that anymore with March Madness.
NFL
The seasons is just past the halfway mark and while some playoff races have shaped up and are all but determined (I’m talking to you Seahawks, Cardinals, and Rams) others remain intriguing and most likely will until Week 17. This season has had it all but as far as this blogger is concerned, some stories stood out amongst the rest.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Today, the one who dubbed the Eagles the “Dream Team” will actually get to start for the first time. Due to Michael Vick’s broken ribs, Vince Young will get the start today for an Eagles team that is all but out at 3-6.
What went wrong? So many people thought they were going to win the NFC if not the Super Bowl. How did things go off the rails so quickly? Well, as is usually the case with teams not living up to expectations, it has been a combination of things but to me, one stands out above the rest; quarterback play.
Last year, everyone thought Vick had turned the corner and had finally learned how to be a pocket quarterback in the NFL. If he did, he somehow forgot nearly everything he learned. This year he is the quarterback that he was in Atlanta. He is still a supreme physical talent and a dynamic playmaker but anymore, that is not the most important part of being an NFL quarterback. If you look at four of the best quarterbacks in the NFL (in no particular order; Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers) they are at their best when they are surrounded by the playmakers. Their job is more one of distribution and leadership than leading by example. Michael Vick was very good in Atlanta when they had a great running attack and they just needed him to make a couple big plays every game. In Philadelphia, they need him to make numerous big plays every week and he isn’t the type of player who can do that consistently.
Other than that, your guess is as good as mine. The defense has needed some time to gel and not having a training camp hurt them greatly but their offense is a far greater concern. DeSean Jackson’s antics have been a distraction and he might not be back next season and this strikes a deeper chord than Vick’s passing. On a different team, Jackson would be kept in line by his fellow players. The teams I can think of off the top of my head are the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Baltimore Ravens, and the New England Patriots. In those places, veterans who have dominant personalities control those locker rooms and nothing goes on without them allowing it to happen. Where is that type of presence in Philadelphia? The short answer is that is doesn’t exist.
PLEASANT SURPRISES (LIONS AND 49ER’S)
One year ago, the Lions and 49ers were 6-10. The main difference is that there was no expectation for the Lions to compete with the likes of the Bears (11-5) or the Packers (10-6). The 49ers were picked to win the NFC West and nearly did, finishing just a game behind the Rams and Seahawks (7-9). The Lions were on the upswing at the end of the year, winning their last four games while the 49ers were just bad with a rookie holdout and then a head coach getting fired.
This year, they are both in line to make the playoffs. The Lions are 6-3 and while they have taken a couple of rough beatings in the last few weeks, they still control their own playoff fate and should make it to the playoffs. They are a case of having numerous high draft picks and actually getting a couple of them right. Matthew Stafford, Ndomukong Suh, and Calvin Johnson have all been playing at a very high level this year. However, I think one of their more important players has been Jahvid Best, the diminutive running back that has been out with an injury since their first loss to San Francisco. They started 5-1 with him and have lost two out of three since he went out. His home run ability out of the backfield as either a runner or a receiver has been sorely missed.
There has been a lot of talk lately about the Lions being a dirty team and I wanted to address that briefly. First of all, I have no problem with guys playing hard and playing rough. Of everything I saw (which I’ll freely admit is far from everything) in the first several weeks of the season, I didn’t see anything outside of the unwritten code of conduct on a football field. I saw a bunch of guys with a hard edge looking to make their opponents pay – that’s not dirty, that’s football. Despite the lack of visual evidence, the rumors persist. Last Sunday against the Bears, it was out in the open for everyone to see. Suh ripping the helmet off of Jay Cutler should have gotten him thrown out of the game. If you aren’t allowed to grab a guy’s facemask and you’re not allowed to grab his back collar and pull him backwards, why are you allowed to tackle a guy BY THE HELMET?
Unfortunately, this wasn’t even the worst transgression of the evening for the Bears – that dishonor belongs to Matthew Stafford. I understand that throwing interceptions is frustrating but nothing, I repeat nothing, gives Stafford the right to drag down a defensive player by the head, similar to what Suh did to Cutler. If it had been the ball carrier, I might have been able to give him a pass but it wasn’t, it was a blocker. Every quarterback should know that if you throw an interception and become a defensive player, you are not protected in any special way; if you go for the ball carrier, you are fair game to be blocked. What makes it even worse is the ball carrier had just passed Stafford and he still threw DJ Moore to the ground.
DJ Moore should have been ejected for his reaction; Stafford should have been ejected for starting the whole thing.
NOW THE 49ERS…
The 49ers, so bad a year ago (far worse than their 6-10 record) are now 8-1 and are sitting atop the league’s worst division (hotly contested by the AFC West). If they win today and the Seahawks also lose, they will clinch at worst a tie for the NFC West’s best record… with almost 40% of the season to go. This would be akin to a baseball team clinching their division in early August – it just doesn’t happen. So how has this turnaround happened?
A lot of people point to the influence that Jim Harbaugh has had on that team and it certainly can’t be overlooked. He has brought an edge to that team that it was missing and I think he will have success in the NFL. I think the most important thing he’s done this year is express his confidence in Alex Smith. The oft-maligned seventh year pro from Utah has never had a completion percentage better than 60.5% or a passer rating higher than 82.1 until this year. Right now those two marks stand at 64.0% and 95.8, respectively. Just to prove that he isn’t the game manager that everyone says he is, last week against the 6-2 Giants with Frank Gore proving less than effective, Smith threw the ball 30 times for 242 yards and led the 49ers to victory.
It’s beginning to show now that perhaps all he really needed was someone to believe in him. Now it looks like he’ll be quarterbacking either the #1 or the #2 seed in the NFC and with Frank Gore behind him, it’ll be very hard to bet against them come January.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Everyone knew that this team was in decline. Last year they started 6-6 and had to win their last four just to win the AFC Colts division and Peyton Manning posted his lowest passer rating since 2002 (91.9 – which still ranked 10th in the league). Then the lockout happened and Manning couldn’t consult with one of the therapists he trusts the most who happened to be on the Colts’ training staff.
Then he missed the first game of the season and once his consecutive games streak was over, the team and Manning decided that he shouldn’t rush back and should come back when he is 100%. Without Manning, everyone knew this team would miss the playoffs and would struggle to finish 8-8.
With 6 games remaining, the Colts have a solid grip on the #1 overall pick in next year’s draft and have a decent chance to become the third team ever to not win a game in a season and the second to go 0-16. This is yet another illustration of just how much Manning means to the Colts. Not only is he the offensive coordinator in everything but name, the entire roster is built around him, even on the defensive side. One of the reasons they have been so bad against the run the past several years (including during their Super Bowl run) is if you have a big lead, the other team can’t afford to run as much. Those were the types of leads that Manning would give them and virtually no other quarterback in the league could. This team is a house of cards and Manning is the glue that holds them solidly together; without him, they couldn’t win the Big Ten and would struggle to win the Big East.
I don’t believe in conspiracy theories with regards to the NFL draft. I don’t believe that it’s more than coincidence that Manning misses most of the season when there is a guy in the draft pool (potentially) who might be able to replace him. This team was built around #18 and without him, they are just downright terrible.
GREEN BAY PACKERS – AARON RODGERS
On the other end of the winning spectrum are the Packers, who enter today’s game with the Buccaneers 9-0 and playing some of the best offensive football that has ever been played and so far their success starts with Aaron Rodgers. His worst game of the season (by passer rating) was in their 27-17 win over the Bears when Rodgers was 28-38 for 297 yards with 3 touchdowns and one of his three interceptions for a rating of 111.4. Just four times this year has Rodgers rating been under 120 while the last three weeks, he’s posted a rating over 140 each time.
Since 1970, there have been 1,252 instances of a quarterback throwing at least 196 passes (to qualify for the rate statistics, you have to average at least 14 pass attempts per team game and the season used to be 14 games long so 14 x 14 = 196). Amongst those, in the four main components that form the NFL’s passer rating formula, Aaron Rodgers ranks:
1st in completion percentage
2nd in touchdown percentage
6th in interception percentage
2nd in yards per attempt
This is where things get a little skewed in my opinion. Coming into this year, the greatest single season performance by a quarterback did not come from Dan Marino or John Elway or Roger Staubach or Drew Brees or Tom Brady. It came from Peyton Manning.
People remember the high flying Patriots offense led by Brady’s 50 touchdown, 8 interception season but many forget that just three years before that, Peyton Manning had an even better season. The difference? Manning’s Colts never went 16-0.
Yes, Tom Brady threw one more touchdown pass and threw for 249 more yards than Manning. Brady also had 81 more attempts than Manning. This is the best way to normalize things; this is what the seasons for Manning and Brady would look like if each threw the ball 500 times.
Name – Completions-Attempts-Yards-TD-INT
Manning – 338-500-4,585-49-10
Brady – 344-500-4,157-43-7
Manning’s season was better as evidenced by the fact that his passer rating was better. Aaron Rodger’s isn’t trying to best Brady’s 2007 but Manning’s 2004. So what would Rodgers numbers look like if normalized to 500 pass attempts? In a word, ridiculous.
Rodgers – 364-500-4,863-47-5
IT’S A BIRD! IT’S A PLANE! NO, IT’S…
(Paraphrasing Kung Fu Panda)
LEGEND TELLS OF A LEGENDARY QUARTERBACK, WHOSE QUARTERBACKING SKILLS WERE THE STUFF OF LEGEND!
The most polarizing player in the league right now and perhaps ever is Tim Tebow. His delivery is slow, his reads are slower, but he has boatloads of “intangibles”. Currently, the Broncos are 5-5, just a half game behind the Raiders in the AFC West, a division which could have four 5-5 teams at the end of play today. When Tebow took over as the starting quarterback, the team was a lifeless 1-4 with Kyle Orton at QB. Since then, Tebow has looked good at times (last five minutes of games) and horrid at others (entire 60 minutes against the Lions). However, in a division with a team that just lost is starting QB (Kansas City), a team who last win was against Denver in Week 5 (San Diego Chargers), and a team that just picked up a new quarterback after a strange sort of hold out (Oakland Raiders), they are far from out of it and in some way could be considered the favorites.
Before we go further into the Tebow-mania, let’s take a quick look at the schedules upcoming for the Raiders and Broncos…
The Raiders have four games left that they should win; today against the Vikings, Week 13 in Miami, Week 16 in Kansas City, and Week 17 against San Diego. At this point I’m writing off San Diego because they made a huge mistake when they let Darren Sproles go and now New Orleans has one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. On top of that, they finally started quickly and didn’t dig themselves a hole and since their 4-1 start, they’ve lost 4 straight and now have to play the Bears to right the ship. Anyways, those four wins would make the Raiders 9-4 with games left against Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit. I don’t see them winning any of those three and finishing 9-7.
The Broncos make or break game is next week against the Chargers. It will likely pit 5-5 Denver against 4-6 San Diego trailing 6-4 Oakland. If Denver wins, they can keep pace with the Raiders and keep pressure on them. If San Diego wins, they are back in the hunt since 9 or 10 wins will likely take this division. Let’s just say the Broncos win to get to 6-5 (and Tebow-mania finds a new high); after that they have Minnesota and Chicago followed by New England and Buffalo before finishing with Kansas City. Unless Tebow finds some more magic, I would see 8-8 as a realistic record for them.
The problem with that is this Broncos team has won three straight to get back to 5-5 in a manner that completely defies logic. Can they beat New England? Of course not. Can they beat a team that has been to the AFC title game each of the last two years? Absolutely not… oh wait, they just did.
You have to throw everything out the window when it comes to this team and they will go as far as their defense (led by remarkable rookie Von Miller) and Tim Tebow’s legs can carry them. Can they make it to the playoffs? Yes, I believe they can. In the glance ahead at their upcoming schedules, the only stretch I saw was Denver beating San Diego and if the Chargers lose today, that might not be that much of a stretch. What if Denver beats Buffalo and Oakland loses to Miami or San Diego?
I am a fan of Tim Tebow and it has nothing to do with his religion, his politics, or his ability as a quarterback. I think that he is a nice and humble young man and in this era of professional sports, I cannot possibly ask for anything more.
Kickoffs are just under an hour away so I’m sure some of what I’ve said here will be rendered moot by the end of the day but that’s just one of the many great things about sports; no matter how long you follow a sport or how much you know about it, on any given day, something can happen that completely defies logic.
Packers; 16-0? No
Colts; 0-16? Yes
Broncos; playoffs? No (just barely)
Manning; MVP votes? Absolutely
Rodgers; MVP? I’m not even going to answer that one…
Packers; back-to-back Super Bowl wins? Yes
Chaos is good and bad for the BCS. It makes it far more difficult to determine who the two best teams in the country are. However, when it comes to the actual BCS bowl games, you have far more quality teams and therefore the potential for better match-ups and more viewership. The nightmare scenario right now for the BCS would be if Arkansas can beat LSU next weekend. Then the only undefeated team would be one that hasn’t played anyone significant and while it might be easy to eliminate them from the national title conversation, how do you eliminate… umm, anyone else?
The BCS is overdue for a restructuring and the rumor is that it’s coming in the next couple of years. The most interesting scenario which I’d personally love to see is the BCS would be responsible for the national championship game only. Their formula would determine the top two teams in the country and they could then receive bids for stadiums to host that game (Jerry Jones and a (almost) record BCS crowd at Cowboys Stadium anyone?). The advantage to this idea is that gone would be some of the most unpopular aspects of the BCS. There would be no automatic qualifying conferences so Connecticut would not be forced to get hammered by a top ten Oklahoma team. There would no longer be a two team limit, which is going to completely screw the SEC this year (under current rules, if Georgia were to beat LSU in the SEC Championship Game, the SEC would potentially have teams at 12-1, 11-1, 11-2, and 10-2 and they could all be ranked in the top ten and deserving of a trip to a BCS bowl… and only two of them can go.
Lastly (for the NCAA section), do I think there will be a playoff someday in big-time college football? Absolutely not. Do I think there should be one? No, I don’t and the reason is simple. Under the current format, you have to play perfectly to make it to the title game and win it all. Last March was one of the more exciting NCAA Men’s Basketball Championships that I’ve ever seen but does anyone out there (outside of Indianapolis and Storrs, Connecticut) think that Butler and Connecticut were the two best basketball teams in the country? Of course they weren’t. They played the best over that month-long tournament; they got to the final not because they were the best team but because they were the hottest team. If you change the FBS system to a playoff, the same thing will start to happen. When I look at the list of NCAA Division-I FBS champions, I know that they were one of the best teams in the country. You can rarely say that anymore with March Madness.
NFL
The seasons is just past the halfway mark and while some playoff races have shaped up and are all but determined (I’m talking to you Seahawks, Cardinals, and Rams) others remain intriguing and most likely will until Week 17. This season has had it all but as far as this blogger is concerned, some stories stood out amongst the rest.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Today, the one who dubbed the Eagles the “Dream Team” will actually get to start for the first time. Due to Michael Vick’s broken ribs, Vince Young will get the start today for an Eagles team that is all but out at 3-6.
What went wrong? So many people thought they were going to win the NFC if not the Super Bowl. How did things go off the rails so quickly? Well, as is usually the case with teams not living up to expectations, it has been a combination of things but to me, one stands out above the rest; quarterback play.
Last year, everyone thought Vick had turned the corner and had finally learned how to be a pocket quarterback in the NFL. If he did, he somehow forgot nearly everything he learned. This year he is the quarterback that he was in Atlanta. He is still a supreme physical talent and a dynamic playmaker but anymore, that is not the most important part of being an NFL quarterback. If you look at four of the best quarterbacks in the NFL (in no particular order; Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers) they are at their best when they are surrounded by the playmakers. Their job is more one of distribution and leadership than leading by example. Michael Vick was very good in Atlanta when they had a great running attack and they just needed him to make a couple big plays every game. In Philadelphia, they need him to make numerous big plays every week and he isn’t the type of player who can do that consistently.
Other than that, your guess is as good as mine. The defense has needed some time to gel and not having a training camp hurt them greatly but their offense is a far greater concern. DeSean Jackson’s antics have been a distraction and he might not be back next season and this strikes a deeper chord than Vick’s passing. On a different team, Jackson would be kept in line by his fellow players. The teams I can think of off the top of my head are the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Baltimore Ravens, and the New England Patriots. In those places, veterans who have dominant personalities control those locker rooms and nothing goes on without them allowing it to happen. Where is that type of presence in Philadelphia? The short answer is that is doesn’t exist.
PLEASANT SURPRISES (LIONS AND 49ER’S)
One year ago, the Lions and 49ers were 6-10. The main difference is that there was no expectation for the Lions to compete with the likes of the Bears (11-5) or the Packers (10-6). The 49ers were picked to win the NFC West and nearly did, finishing just a game behind the Rams and Seahawks (7-9). The Lions were on the upswing at the end of the year, winning their last four games while the 49ers were just bad with a rookie holdout and then a head coach getting fired.
This year, they are both in line to make the playoffs. The Lions are 6-3 and while they have taken a couple of rough beatings in the last few weeks, they still control their own playoff fate and should make it to the playoffs. They are a case of having numerous high draft picks and actually getting a couple of them right. Matthew Stafford, Ndomukong Suh, and Calvin Johnson have all been playing at a very high level this year. However, I think one of their more important players has been Jahvid Best, the diminutive running back that has been out with an injury since their first loss to San Francisco. They started 5-1 with him and have lost two out of three since he went out. His home run ability out of the backfield as either a runner or a receiver has been sorely missed.
There has been a lot of talk lately about the Lions being a dirty team and I wanted to address that briefly. First of all, I have no problem with guys playing hard and playing rough. Of everything I saw (which I’ll freely admit is far from everything) in the first several weeks of the season, I didn’t see anything outside of the unwritten code of conduct on a football field. I saw a bunch of guys with a hard edge looking to make their opponents pay – that’s not dirty, that’s football. Despite the lack of visual evidence, the rumors persist. Last Sunday against the Bears, it was out in the open for everyone to see. Suh ripping the helmet off of Jay Cutler should have gotten him thrown out of the game. If you aren’t allowed to grab a guy’s facemask and you’re not allowed to grab his back collar and pull him backwards, why are you allowed to tackle a guy BY THE HELMET?
Unfortunately, this wasn’t even the worst transgression of the evening for the Bears – that dishonor belongs to Matthew Stafford. I understand that throwing interceptions is frustrating but nothing, I repeat nothing, gives Stafford the right to drag down a defensive player by the head, similar to what Suh did to Cutler. If it had been the ball carrier, I might have been able to give him a pass but it wasn’t, it was a blocker. Every quarterback should know that if you throw an interception and become a defensive player, you are not protected in any special way; if you go for the ball carrier, you are fair game to be blocked. What makes it even worse is the ball carrier had just passed Stafford and he still threw DJ Moore to the ground.
DJ Moore should have been ejected for his reaction; Stafford should have been ejected for starting the whole thing.
NOW THE 49ERS…
The 49ers, so bad a year ago (far worse than their 6-10 record) are now 8-1 and are sitting atop the league’s worst division (hotly contested by the AFC West). If they win today and the Seahawks also lose, they will clinch at worst a tie for the NFC West’s best record… with almost 40% of the season to go. This would be akin to a baseball team clinching their division in early August – it just doesn’t happen. So how has this turnaround happened?
A lot of people point to the influence that Jim Harbaugh has had on that team and it certainly can’t be overlooked. He has brought an edge to that team that it was missing and I think he will have success in the NFL. I think the most important thing he’s done this year is express his confidence in Alex Smith. The oft-maligned seventh year pro from Utah has never had a completion percentage better than 60.5% or a passer rating higher than 82.1 until this year. Right now those two marks stand at 64.0% and 95.8, respectively. Just to prove that he isn’t the game manager that everyone says he is, last week against the 6-2 Giants with Frank Gore proving less than effective, Smith threw the ball 30 times for 242 yards and led the 49ers to victory.
It’s beginning to show now that perhaps all he really needed was someone to believe in him. Now it looks like he’ll be quarterbacking either the #1 or the #2 seed in the NFC and with Frank Gore behind him, it’ll be very hard to bet against them come January.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Everyone knew that this team was in decline. Last year they started 6-6 and had to win their last four just to win the AFC Colts division and Peyton Manning posted his lowest passer rating since 2002 (91.9 – which still ranked 10th in the league). Then the lockout happened and Manning couldn’t consult with one of the therapists he trusts the most who happened to be on the Colts’ training staff.
Then he missed the first game of the season and once his consecutive games streak was over, the team and Manning decided that he shouldn’t rush back and should come back when he is 100%. Without Manning, everyone knew this team would miss the playoffs and would struggle to finish 8-8.
With 6 games remaining, the Colts have a solid grip on the #1 overall pick in next year’s draft and have a decent chance to become the third team ever to not win a game in a season and the second to go 0-16. This is yet another illustration of just how much Manning means to the Colts. Not only is he the offensive coordinator in everything but name, the entire roster is built around him, even on the defensive side. One of the reasons they have been so bad against the run the past several years (including during their Super Bowl run) is if you have a big lead, the other team can’t afford to run as much. Those were the types of leads that Manning would give them and virtually no other quarterback in the league could. This team is a house of cards and Manning is the glue that holds them solidly together; without him, they couldn’t win the Big Ten and would struggle to win the Big East.
I don’t believe in conspiracy theories with regards to the NFL draft. I don’t believe that it’s more than coincidence that Manning misses most of the season when there is a guy in the draft pool (potentially) who might be able to replace him. This team was built around #18 and without him, they are just downright terrible.
GREEN BAY PACKERS – AARON RODGERS
On the other end of the winning spectrum are the Packers, who enter today’s game with the Buccaneers 9-0 and playing some of the best offensive football that has ever been played and so far their success starts with Aaron Rodgers. His worst game of the season (by passer rating) was in their 27-17 win over the Bears when Rodgers was 28-38 for 297 yards with 3 touchdowns and one of his three interceptions for a rating of 111.4. Just four times this year has Rodgers rating been under 120 while the last three weeks, he’s posted a rating over 140 each time.
Since 1970, there have been 1,252 instances of a quarterback throwing at least 196 passes (to qualify for the rate statistics, you have to average at least 14 pass attempts per team game and the season used to be 14 games long so 14 x 14 = 196). Amongst those, in the four main components that form the NFL’s passer rating formula, Aaron Rodgers ranks:
1st in completion percentage
2nd in touchdown percentage
6th in interception percentage
2nd in yards per attempt
This is where things get a little skewed in my opinion. Coming into this year, the greatest single season performance by a quarterback did not come from Dan Marino or John Elway or Roger Staubach or Drew Brees or Tom Brady. It came from Peyton Manning.
People remember the high flying Patriots offense led by Brady’s 50 touchdown, 8 interception season but many forget that just three years before that, Peyton Manning had an even better season. The difference? Manning’s Colts never went 16-0.
Yes, Tom Brady threw one more touchdown pass and threw for 249 more yards than Manning. Brady also had 81 more attempts than Manning. This is the best way to normalize things; this is what the seasons for Manning and Brady would look like if each threw the ball 500 times.
Name – Completions-Attempts-Yards-TD-INT
Manning – 338-500-4,585-49-10
Brady – 344-500-4,157-43-7
Manning’s season was better as evidenced by the fact that his passer rating was better. Aaron Rodger’s isn’t trying to best Brady’s 2007 but Manning’s 2004. So what would Rodgers numbers look like if normalized to 500 pass attempts? In a word, ridiculous.
Rodgers – 364-500-4,863-47-5
IT’S A BIRD! IT’S A PLANE! NO, IT’S…
(Paraphrasing Kung Fu Panda)
LEGEND TELLS OF A LEGENDARY QUARTERBACK, WHOSE QUARTERBACKING SKILLS WERE THE STUFF OF LEGEND!
The most polarizing player in the league right now and perhaps ever is Tim Tebow. His delivery is slow, his reads are slower, but he has boatloads of “intangibles”. Currently, the Broncos are 5-5, just a half game behind the Raiders in the AFC West, a division which could have four 5-5 teams at the end of play today. When Tebow took over as the starting quarterback, the team was a lifeless 1-4 with Kyle Orton at QB. Since then, Tebow has looked good at times (last five minutes of games) and horrid at others (entire 60 minutes against the Lions). However, in a division with a team that just lost is starting QB (Kansas City), a team who last win was against Denver in Week 5 (San Diego Chargers), and a team that just picked up a new quarterback after a strange sort of hold out (Oakland Raiders), they are far from out of it and in some way could be considered the favorites.
Before we go further into the Tebow-mania, let’s take a quick look at the schedules upcoming for the Raiders and Broncos…
The Raiders have four games left that they should win; today against the Vikings, Week 13 in Miami, Week 16 in Kansas City, and Week 17 against San Diego. At this point I’m writing off San Diego because they made a huge mistake when they let Darren Sproles go and now New Orleans has one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. On top of that, they finally started quickly and didn’t dig themselves a hole and since their 4-1 start, they’ve lost 4 straight and now have to play the Bears to right the ship. Anyways, those four wins would make the Raiders 9-4 with games left against Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit. I don’t see them winning any of those three and finishing 9-7.
The Broncos make or break game is next week against the Chargers. It will likely pit 5-5 Denver against 4-6 San Diego trailing 6-4 Oakland. If Denver wins, they can keep pace with the Raiders and keep pressure on them. If San Diego wins, they are back in the hunt since 9 or 10 wins will likely take this division. Let’s just say the Broncos win to get to 6-5 (and Tebow-mania finds a new high); after that they have Minnesota and Chicago followed by New England and Buffalo before finishing with Kansas City. Unless Tebow finds some more magic, I would see 8-8 as a realistic record for them.
The problem with that is this Broncos team has won three straight to get back to 5-5 in a manner that completely defies logic. Can they beat New England? Of course not. Can they beat a team that has been to the AFC title game each of the last two years? Absolutely not… oh wait, they just did.
You have to throw everything out the window when it comes to this team and they will go as far as their defense (led by remarkable rookie Von Miller) and Tim Tebow’s legs can carry them. Can they make it to the playoffs? Yes, I believe they can. In the glance ahead at their upcoming schedules, the only stretch I saw was Denver beating San Diego and if the Chargers lose today, that might not be that much of a stretch. What if Denver beats Buffalo and Oakland loses to Miami or San Diego?
I am a fan of Tim Tebow and it has nothing to do with his religion, his politics, or his ability as a quarterback. I think that he is a nice and humble young man and in this era of professional sports, I cannot possibly ask for anything more.
Kickoffs are just under an hour away so I’m sure some of what I’ve said here will be rendered moot by the end of the day but that’s just one of the many great things about sports; no matter how long you follow a sport or how much you know about it, on any given day, something can happen that completely defies logic.
Packers; 16-0? No
Colts; 0-16? Yes
Broncos; playoffs? No (just barely)
Manning; MVP votes? Absolutely
Rodgers; MVP? I’m not even going to answer that one…
Packers; back-to-back Super Bowl wins? Yes
Sunday, December 13, 2009
BCS Preview: Sugar Bowl
Of the five match-ups in the BCS, perhaps the most interesting one is that which will take place between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl, January 1st at 8:30 PM Eastern time. For the first twelve games of the season, these two teams could not have been more different with the exception of their records. Florida was looking for their third national title in four years and Tim Tebow was looking for his second Heisman trophy, trying to become the second player ever to achieve that feat. On the other hand, Cincinnati has been struggling for the spotlight in the Big East, seen by many as one of the weaker Automatic Qualifying conferences. However, the biggest questions surrounding this game have nothing to do with x’s and o’s, offensive or defensive rankings, or Heisman finalists or snubs.
The biggest question about this game is motivation. On the side of Florida, there is the fact that before this game is even played, many consider this season a disappointment. Not that it needs to be said again but in the past three years, the Gators won two national titles, Tebow won the Heisman, and most importantly, Tebow and Brandon Spikes both came back for their senior years. The Gators returned 11 defensive starters from a team that throttled Oklahoma’s record setting offense in the National Title game a year ago. At this point, for this group of players, there is very little that they haven’t already done. For all the freshmen, they have three more years to make their own mark. Whether they win or lose the Sugar Bowl, the Florida squad’s place in history will be roughly the same.
For Cincinnati, the source of their distraction is the University of Notre Dame. Given the coverage in the media, it very much seemed as if Head Coach Brian Kelly was simply going to humor Notre Dame officials and was inevitably going to turn them down and try to maintain this level of success at Cincinnati. Whether it was the prestige of the Golden Dome, the challenge of bringing a winner to South Bend, Indiana, or simply the pocketbook of Notre Dame, something convinced Kelly to jump off of the Bearcats’ ship. The question is how will Cincinnati respond?
By the Numbers
This will be an interesting game because it will pit one of the best passing attacks in the country against one of the best overall defenses in the country.
For Cincinnati, everything hinges on their ability to pass the football. They ranked 65th in the country running the ball but were #6 in passing offense and had the best overall passing efficiency in the country at 166.19. The worry for the Bearcats isn’t their offense, it’s their defense. In the last four games alone, they’ve allowed 146 points and they haven’t faced any offenses as good as Florida this year.
For Florida, despite having Tim Tebow as their quarterback, this team lives and dies by its defense. This year the Gators defense allowed as many as 20 points just twice and against Mississippi State (who scored 19 points), two Tebow interceptions were returned for touchdowns. They finished 13th against the run, 3rd against the pass, 4th overall, 5th in passing efficiency allowed, and 3rd in points per game allowed. Despite their defensive prowess, you can’t forget that the Gators still were 13th in points scored, 12th in total offense, and 5th in passing efficiency.
Why the Bearcats Will Win
Cincinnati has two quarterbacks that are more than proficient at running this offense. If something happens to starter Tony Pike, “back-up” Zach Collaros had a 195.53 rating and averaged 11.6 yards per attempt. Over 10 or 20 attempts those numbers are good but over 124 attempts, those numbers are bordering on ridiculous. The other part that must be considered is the fact that when you have such a prolific passing attack, you are never truly out of a game. Playing on the road against a top 15 team in Pittsburgh, they were down 31-10 late in the first half. They proceeded to storm all the way back to a 38-38 tie and after Pitt scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:36 remaining in the game, Tony Pike led the Bearcats 61 yards in just over a minute to win the game 45-44. They are a very dangerous team and probably the most potent offense that Florida has faced all year. They scored at least 40 points 6 times and if they can get into a shootout with Florida, that match-up favors the Bearcats.
Why the Gators Will Win
Reason number one is #15. This will be the last game of Tim Tebow’s historic career and he will want to go out on a much better note than that which was heard in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. Tebow finished the season 8th in passing efficiency and despite the loss of Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy to the NFL; he still has plenty of playmakers to light up the scoreboard. Along with the offense, they boast perhaps the best man-for-man defense in the country and a great head coach in Urban Meyer.
The Verdict
If the Alabama Crimson Tide had beaten the Florida Gators in a close game in the SEC title game, I would say that the Gators are a lock to win this game. Considering that Cincinnati played a great 2nd half against Pittsburgh and that Florida was never really in the game against Alabama, it puts this game much more in play. I believe that the Gators will come out flat in the 1st quarter and the question is; can the Bearcats take advantage of that lapse? The answer is yes. The Gators are going to play like they have nothing to play for (which, compared to earlier this month, they don’t) and the Bearcats are going to play like they are lucky to be here (which they are). Tony Pike is going to come out of the gates hot and by the time the Gators catch their breath it will be too late because they lack the big play weapons in the passing game to come back from a deficit.
Cincinnati 30, Florida 24
The biggest question about this game is motivation. On the side of Florida, there is the fact that before this game is even played, many consider this season a disappointment. Not that it needs to be said again but in the past three years, the Gators won two national titles, Tebow won the Heisman, and most importantly, Tebow and Brandon Spikes both came back for their senior years. The Gators returned 11 defensive starters from a team that throttled Oklahoma’s record setting offense in the National Title game a year ago. At this point, for this group of players, there is very little that they haven’t already done. For all the freshmen, they have three more years to make their own mark. Whether they win or lose the Sugar Bowl, the Florida squad’s place in history will be roughly the same.
For Cincinnati, the source of their distraction is the University of Notre Dame. Given the coverage in the media, it very much seemed as if Head Coach Brian Kelly was simply going to humor Notre Dame officials and was inevitably going to turn them down and try to maintain this level of success at Cincinnati. Whether it was the prestige of the Golden Dome, the challenge of bringing a winner to South Bend, Indiana, or simply the pocketbook of Notre Dame, something convinced Kelly to jump off of the Bearcats’ ship. The question is how will Cincinnati respond?
By the Numbers
This will be an interesting game because it will pit one of the best passing attacks in the country against one of the best overall defenses in the country.
For Cincinnati, everything hinges on their ability to pass the football. They ranked 65th in the country running the ball but were #6 in passing offense and had the best overall passing efficiency in the country at 166.19. The worry for the Bearcats isn’t their offense, it’s their defense. In the last four games alone, they’ve allowed 146 points and they haven’t faced any offenses as good as Florida this year.
For Florida, despite having Tim Tebow as their quarterback, this team lives and dies by its defense. This year the Gators defense allowed as many as 20 points just twice and against Mississippi State (who scored 19 points), two Tebow interceptions were returned for touchdowns. They finished 13th against the run, 3rd against the pass, 4th overall, 5th in passing efficiency allowed, and 3rd in points per game allowed. Despite their defensive prowess, you can’t forget that the Gators still were 13th in points scored, 12th in total offense, and 5th in passing efficiency.
Why the Bearcats Will Win
Cincinnati has two quarterbacks that are more than proficient at running this offense. If something happens to starter Tony Pike, “back-up” Zach Collaros had a 195.53 rating and averaged 11.6 yards per attempt. Over 10 or 20 attempts those numbers are good but over 124 attempts, those numbers are bordering on ridiculous. The other part that must be considered is the fact that when you have such a prolific passing attack, you are never truly out of a game. Playing on the road against a top 15 team in Pittsburgh, they were down 31-10 late in the first half. They proceeded to storm all the way back to a 38-38 tie and after Pitt scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:36 remaining in the game, Tony Pike led the Bearcats 61 yards in just over a minute to win the game 45-44. They are a very dangerous team and probably the most potent offense that Florida has faced all year. They scored at least 40 points 6 times and if they can get into a shootout with Florida, that match-up favors the Bearcats.
Why the Gators Will Win
Reason number one is #15. This will be the last game of Tim Tebow’s historic career and he will want to go out on a much better note than that which was heard in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. Tebow finished the season 8th in passing efficiency and despite the loss of Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy to the NFL; he still has plenty of playmakers to light up the scoreboard. Along with the offense, they boast perhaps the best man-for-man defense in the country and a great head coach in Urban Meyer.
The Verdict
If the Alabama Crimson Tide had beaten the Florida Gators in a close game in the SEC title game, I would say that the Gators are a lock to win this game. Considering that Cincinnati played a great 2nd half against Pittsburgh and that Florida was never really in the game against Alabama, it puts this game much more in play. I believe that the Gators will come out flat in the 1st quarter and the question is; can the Bearcats take advantage of that lapse? The answer is yes. The Gators are going to play like they have nothing to play for (which, compared to earlier this month, they don’t) and the Bearcats are going to play like they are lucky to be here (which they are). Tony Pike is going to come out of the gates hot and by the time the Gators catch their breath it will be too late because they lack the big play weapons in the passing game to come back from a deficit.
Cincinnati 30, Florida 24
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