It’s been a long time since I’ve written in this space and for those of you who have opened my blog and come away disappointed in the past few months, I sincerely apologize. However, there are aspects of my life that take precedence over a blog that, while I love writing in it, I don’t get paid to write in it.
My goal here is simply to touch base on the events of the past few months and give my perspective, a task that looks almost Herculean. In the past three months, we have had the highest profile free agent in the history of the NFL, we’ve had a team with a subpar record win four games against teams with better records to claim the Super Bowl, we’ve had a relatively unexpected team claim that aforementioned free agent, we’ve had a commissioner flex his incredible muscle in ways never seen before, and we’ve seen Tim Tebow lead his team to a playoff win. The most exciting part? That was only the headlines from the last three months in the NFL.
Because I am going to be writing about a lot of different things, I thought I’d give you a little list of the topics I’m going to touch on so you know what you’re getting into:
- Bounties
- Peyton Manning
- The Denver Broncos
- The New York Giants and Tournaments
- Tim Tebow
- March Madness
- Opening Day is Almost Here!
BOUNTIES
Unfortunately, I have to start with quite possibly the ugliest story of the winter. In what I gather is an incredibly extensive report compiled by the NFL, the New Orleans Saints defensive players (at least 22-27 of them) under the direction of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, ran a bounty system where cash bonuses were given out for big hits and additional payouts were made for “knock-out” hits or “cart-off” hits where the player that was hit had to be carted off the field. He has been suspended indefinitely and he will not have the possibility of getting his job back for a year.
Head Coach Sean Payton either knew about it and did nothing or should have known about it. General Manager Mickey Loomis also falls into that category. Payton was suspended for a year (effective April 1st) and Loomis was suspended for 8 games (starting after the conclusion of the last preseason game). The severity of their suspensions is unprecedented but before you wonder why it was so harsh, you have to remember a few key factors. First, as I said before, they either knew or they should have known. Second, they were specifically told by the NFL to cease and desist this bounty program several years ago and all evidence points to the fact that they both did nothing about it. That level of arrogance is something that leagues always despise and leagues (either professional or amateur) feel the need to remind coaches, players, and teams that nobody is above the sport. Lastly, this commissioner is serious about making the sport safer for its players. When you add all of that together, you get fines and suspensions the like of which the NFL (or any other professional league, for that matter) has never seen.
In my opinion, this is what Roger Goodell had to do. According to ESPN legal analyst Lester Munson, the NFL has been named in more than 650 lawsuits by former players who are claiming (essentially) that the league did not do enough to protect them from the dangers of playing football. Truthfully, if you look at the incidence of severe brain damage amongst former players, you realize that some of these lawsuits might have a point. One of the largest issues with regards to the lawsuits that are specifically talking about head injuries is until recently we as a society haven’t known that much about concussions. How much did the NFL really know about head injuries back in the 60’s and 70’s? That is a question that these lawsuits will have to try to answer.
In the meantime, there is nothing that the NFL and Commissioner Goodell can do about what the NFL said or did forty years ago. All they can do is control the present and the future of the league and with these penalties, Goodell has sent a powerful message. The days of the NFL being a gladiatorial league are nearing an end and the more finesse type players are succeeding more than ever.
The last step that remains to be seen in this saga is what happens to the two dozen players that were involved in this program. They will be punished but Goodell is very wisely seeking counsel from the union with regards to their punishments. If the union balks at penalties, Goodell can use that to say that he is more serious about player safety than the union is. If the union thinks the penalties are too light, then Goodell has free reign to enact even harsher punishments. His job is to protect this league and he is wielding that power and wielding it well.
PEYTON MANNING
Never in the history of the NFL has a player with as sparkling a resume as Manning’s become a free agent. The NFL’s collective bargaining agreement is set up to restrict player movement and help keep players like Manning in cities like Indianapolis (the 21st largest TV market in the country). The entire concept of the franchise tag was to give teams an extra year to negotiate a long-term contract with a star player. That’s not exactly how it’s been used and now many players view it as an insult to be tagged in the first place and yet, when a new collective bargaining agreement was being negotiated, never did the player’s union try to do away with the franchise tag. The problem is that the franchise tag isn’t a bad idea; the player gets a one year contract that is guaranteed to be the average of the top five contracts at that position and the team gets another year to work out a long term deal.
Nonetheless, the five year contract that the Colts signed with Peyton Manning a year ago caused this situation to come to a head far sooner than it usually does. Rather than pay Manning a roster bonus of $28 million, the Colts decided to cut him. As cold and ruthless and heartless as it sounds, it was the best decision for both sides. Now the Colts can move on and rebuild their franchise from the ground up starting with a new general manager, coach, and quarterback. Meanwhile, Manning is free to chase down a second Super Bowl ring with another team. After a lengthy process in which he spoke to representatives from several teams, Manning signed a five year contract with the Denver Broncos potentially worth $96 million and the obvious question that follows is whether or not he is worth that much coming off of four neck surgeries.
First and foremost, with regards to the actual surgery, his neck is not in any more jeopardy than anyone else who plays professional football. The issue is that a nerve that controls his right triceps muscles needs to regenerate so he can regain strength in that muscle group. Without that strength, he won’t be able to throw a football consistently. All I have to say is this: if he wasn’t on the right track to be able to start and play effectively in September, the Broncos would not have tied the next five years of their franchise to Manning’s wagon.
So what can he bring to the Broncos? He brings a level of football genius that few have ever brought to the field. The Broncos have a talented young core of receivers and a terrific offensive line and both will instantly become much better with Manning under center. If you remember, the Broncos are coming off of a year where they went 8-8 with a defense that was solid and at times brilliant; their offense was the problem last year and even if you figure that Manning won’t add more than 7 points a game versus Tim Tebow (and I believe he’s worth much more than that) their record last year would have been 12-4.
Peyton Manning is the greatest player ever to play the position of quarterback. I know that I wrote otherwise in this space some time ago but nobody has ever brought more to the position. Other quarterbacks have thrown for more yards, others have won more games, and others have won more Super Bowls but none have combined the physical skills with the ridiculous level of intellect that Manning has brought to the position. I am simply glad that his career didn’t end on an injury and now he has the opportunity to go out on whatever terms he wants. I’d also be lying if I said that I’m also glad that he has the chance to supplant Brett Favre in the record books.
THE DENVER BRONCOS
The Broncos? You mean that team with the college quarterback? Yep, that was the team that Manning chose and I believe that it comes down to one thing; John Elway. I gather that the two of them are friends and that they play golf occasionally but that’s not why he was a big factor. John Elway was a great quarterback, won two Super Bowls and was a lock for the Hall of Fame when he became eligible back in 2004. Most importantly, he followed that brilliant playing career with a so far successful career in the front office of an NFL franchise and I think that’s what Manning wants to do after he’s done playing. I think he wants to learn from a guy who has had success at that level because it’s far from a given. If you want an example of how former players don’t necessarily do well in the front office, look no further than Matt Millen. In the seven full seasons that he was the CEO and general manager of the Detroit Lions, they went 31-81 and made many of the worst draft picks of the decade.
The last thing that you have to remember about Elway is that he was not only an amazing athlete who probably could have gone to the Hall of Fame as a baseball player had he not chosen football (he hit .361 with 9 home runs and 50 RBI as a senior at Stanford). He is also a very smart person and he received a bachelor’s degree in economics from Stanford. Likewise, Peyton Manning is a very smart person who finished his degree in three years at Tennessee but decided to come back for his senior season.
For anyone out there who thought he might have gone somewhere else, played for a few years and then moved straight up to the front office, I don’t think that was in Manning’s mind. Besides, who says that he has to move to the front office of whatever team he signed with? I have no doubt that he will not be a part of the Broncos front office largely because of John Elway. He’ll play in Denver for a few years and then he’ll get a job running someone else’s team after (or more likely before) he gets enshrined in Canton.
THE NEW YORK GIANTS AND TOURNAMENTS
For the second time in four years, the New York Giants came into the Super Bowl with a record significantly worse than the Patriots (four games this year versus six games worse in 2008). I could go on and on talking about the similarities between Super Bowl XLII and XLVI but there is a different point I would like to talk about. In the last five years, the Super Bowl has featured two 9 wins teams and two 10 win teams and the last two years the NFL’s biggest game has been won by a 10-6 team (Packers) and a 9-7 team (Giants). It is time to stop saying that the best team wins the Super Bowl. The best teams make the playoffs and that’s it.
The same thing can be said about the NCAA tournament; the best teams make the tournament but the best teams rarely win it anymore. I know that series are impractical when it comes to college basketball and the NFL but the fact of the matter is that if two teams play once, anything can happen but if two teams played a seven game series, it is extremely difficult for the lesser team to win.
This is one of the beauties of the BCS. In the short history of the BCS, many arguments can be made about which teams belong in the national championship game but you will never be able to say that 29% of teams had a better won-loss record than the BCS champion (9 of the other 31 teams had more wins than the Giants’ 9).
TIM TEBOW
This is one of the issues I have with the average sports fan and let me know if you’ve ever heard anything like this before: “I am a huge Tim Tebow fan so there’s nothing the Broncos can do at QB that will be better than that.”
That statement is ludicrous. There is no circumstance in which the Broncos are better off with Tebow at quarterback instead of Peyton Manning. If you watched the last few games of the season last year (as I did) you would see that defenses were starting to figure out how to play against Tim Tebow. Smother the receivers and make Tebow throw into small windows. In the last four regular season games (in which they went 1-3) the Broncos scored 13, 23, 14, and 3 points and that 23 point outburst against the Patriots would have been less had it been a closer game.
“But what about the playoff game against the Steelers?! He was 10-21 for 316 yards and two touchdowns!”
Yes, he was. And half the starting quarterbacks in the league would have been able to put up better numbers against that defense. On the final play of the game, an 80 yard strike to Demaryius Thomas, the deepest Steelers defender was less than ten yards off the line of scrimmage. Tebow simply had to lay the ball out in front of Thomas and then let him sprint the final 60 yards into history. He did play well against the Steelers but it was because the Steelers defense dared him to beat them and then NEVER ADJUSTED. Tebow burned them in the second quarter and in the second half, the Steelers didn’t change their defensive attack, a true failure on the part of the Steelers coaches.
Here’s the interesting thing; I like Tim Tebow. I’ve liked him since he was jumping in the air and throwing horrible passes as an 18 year old freshman on Florida’s national title winning team. I liked him even more the next year when he played with a reckless abandon and an enthusiasm that was very refreshing (and still is). The fact of the matter is that he is a great football player and a bad quarterback. He never should have been drafted in the first round. He should have been a third round pick who would get into the game for 5-10 snaps a game and when he’s in the game, nobody knows what is going to happen. Putting him alongside a Tom Brady (Bill Belichick was interested in Tebow) would be very interesting; much the way he was the change-of-pace QB as a freshman behind Chris Leak at Florida.
I hope that he does well with the New York Jets but I also think that the Jets’ brass underestimates the phenomenon that is Tebow-mania. While I don’t claim to be an expert, I live in the Denver metro area and experienced it first-hand last year. The fact of the matter is that John Elway and John Fox were hired after Tim Tebow was drafted and he wasn’t the type of QB that the Johns wanted. It’s unfortunate but it’s the fact of the matter and Elway and Fox have been around the NFL for a long time and have seen what wins and what doesn’t. Traditionally, quarterbacks like Tebow don’t win in the NFL.
MARCH MADNESS
There are things going on in the world of sports that have nothing to do with the NFL. 9 days ago, something happened that has never happened since the tournament expanded to 64 teams; two teams seeded 15th beat two teams seeded 2nd. Despite a scare near the end of the game, number one seed Syracuse survived the first round and did not become the first #1 to lose to a #16 seed but at this point I believe it is becoming more a psychological problem. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, #1 seeds have a record of 112-0 in the first round and for a team coming off of a small conference tournament championship, that is a huge hill to climb before you ever step on the floor.
Someday a #16 will beat a #1 and at that point the spell will be broken. I’m not saying that a #1 seed will lose every year but right now there is a mystique about the 1-16 game and it has so far been impossible for the lower seeds to break. In the 3-14 games, the lower seeds do not have a very good chance of winning and rarely do but every coach of every #14 seeded team can point to the 16 teams seeded #14 that have won a first round game for inspiration.
This year, the basketball has been great and, as always, extremely hard (for me) to predict. I tried something new this year and went with the Blindfolded Bracket feature on the website of the Wall Street Journal. While my picks this year have not been terrible, I would have been much better off simply picking the higher seeded teams.
Heading into the first games of the Elite Eight (later today) Kentucky is looking like the team to beat. Nobody else has been able to match their level of domination in their first three games and the single biggest threat to them just lost one of their biggest playmakers (North Carolina and point guard Kendall Marshall).
My Saturday picks: Florida over Louisville and Ohio State over Syracuse.
My Sunday Picks: Kentucky over Baylor and Kansas over North Carolina.
Final Four: Kentucky over Florida and Kansas over Ohio State.
For the title game, I picked Kansas in my bracket to go all the way but right now if I had to do it all over again, I’d pick Kentucky. Wildcats over Jayhawks.
OPENING DAY IS ALMOST HERE!
To me the theme of the free agency period for Major League Baseball was, if you have a player at position who can’t play another position, go get another player who plays the same position!
The three biggest free agent acquisitions (amongst position players) were Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and Jose Reyes (in alphabetical order). The issue is the teams that got them already had Miguel Cabrera, Kendrys Morales, and Hanley Ramirez. Now, if all six of those players were outfielders, this really wouldn’t be all that big an issue and for two of the three teams, there is a built-in apparatus to have these pairings work (the DH). The problem is that four of them are first basemen and the other two are shortstops.
The incumbents (Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera) are doing the right thing and are moving to third base but the problem is that third base is not where you put a guy to hide his glove. Third base is a very important defensive position and a substandard defender can be a serious problem if the guy playing there isn’t completely committee to his glove.
The Tigers and Angels have a serious leg up on the Marlins in these scenarios because of the designated hitter. The Tigers can play an octopus with seven gloves and a wicked throwing arm at third base and it won’t hurt them offensively because Cabrera and Fielder can split time and first base and DH.
I see the biggest problem in Miami with the Marlins (man, saying Miami Marlins sounds weird). Hanley Ramirez is a supreme talent who is two years removed from a slash line of .342/.410/.543. He did miss time with injuries last year but his slash line was a horrendous .243/.333/.379 and on top of that he has shown a serious lack in maturity in the past few years. He has said that he is willing to move to third base to accommodate Jose Reyes but how long will that last if Reyes struggles or if Ramirez struggles at third base?
So what does this mean for the upcoming season? The Angels have thrust themselves into the World Series discussion with the signing of both Pujols and CJ Wilson. Not only did they make their good rotation deeper, but they also hurt a key rival in Texas (Wilson’s team from a year ago). The Yankees and Red Sox will be there again but no team in the AL combines the lineup depth with the rotation depth that the Angels have. Having said that, I still have to say that the Rangers are the favorites to go back to the World Series since they have won the last two AL championships.
In the NL, the race is wide open. I don’t think the Marlins added enough to win the NL East this year. The Phillies are still going to be a favorite because of their rotation and the Nationals could be a dark horse contender if they stay healthy. In the central, the Cardinals lost a lot in Pujols but they get Adam Wainwright back from Tommy John surgery so they will again be favored to win the weak NL Central.
My way-too-early prediction: Albert Pujols will haunt the Cardinals as the Angels beat St. Louis in the World Series.
…
If you’ve managed to make it to the end of this, I applaud and I thank you. It’s been a busy few months for me and I haven’t been able to write in this space nearly as much as I would like and I’m going to try to write much more in the coming weeks and months. I plan to write more about the Broncos and Peyton Manning (since they plan their home games less than 10 miles from my house), I plan to write more about the Saints and why I as a former athlete hate the thought of the bounty program that they ran. I also plan to write more about the differing business models between the major sports, why they are different, and what the owners want their business models to be.
Until next time, enjoy the March Madness while it lasts!
Showing posts with label March Madness. Show all posts
Showing posts with label March Madness. Show all posts
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Friday, April 1, 2011
IF SOME IS GOOD, MORE IS BETTER... RIGHT?
Clearly, VCU belonged in the 2011 edition of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. The Selection Committee did the right thing by choosing VCU over the likes of Colorado, Virginia Tech, and Harvard. However, the Committee doubly disrespected VCU by giving them an 11 seed and then making them play an additional game just to get into the field of 64 teams.
Right?
Nope.
Based on their resume, they were a shaky 11 seed at best and they were a hair’s breadth from not even being in the tournament, First Four or not. But then how else can you explain the meteoric rise from a 23-11 regular season record to steamrolling a team from every major conference except the SEC and with the exception of their Florida State game, doing so by at least 10 points? Clearly they were underrated coming into the NCAA tournament.
Right?
Again, nope.
Every year, the NCAA tournament, accurately nicknamed “March Madness”, claims to crown the best team in all of college basketball. However, if you look at the winners closely and then look at the performance of teams during the regular season, that statement isn’t always true. In the past 29 NCAA tournaments, only 4 times has a team entered the tournament ranked #1 in the country and then gone on to win the national title. Let’s compare that, for just a moment, to everyone’s favorite punching bag; the BCS.
Since the inception of the BCS in 1998, how many times has the 10th best team in the country won the national title? That’s right, never. How many times has a team ranked as low at 40th had a shot at a national title this late in a season? Same as before, never. If you look strictly at seeds (and assume that each of these four teams was the best on their seed line), this Final Four is matching up the 9th, 13th, 29th, and 41st best teams in the country.
In this day and age of rampant parity, the NCAA Tournament does not necessarily crown the best team; it crowns the hottest team. The story has become downright famous by now but 24 days ago, Connecticut was 21-9 and facing a tremendous challenge. At some point in their preparation for the Big East tournament they caught fire and haven’t lost since and currently they are the highest seed left in the Big Dance.
No matter what format you choose to determine a national champion, as long as the results are determined on the field of play, there is always a chance that a lesser team will win and the true best team will be left behind. However, there is a way to minimize the chances of this happening but they are thoroughly impractical at the college level; playoff series.
Can a lesser team beat a better team in one game with everything on the line? Of course they can. VCU proved that last weekend by outplaying a better Kansas team. Could VCU beat Kansas 4 times in a 7 game series? Yes, they can, but if you want to put money on VCU, I’ll take that bet every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Playoff series expose lesser teams for all the faults that make them lesser teams; not as much depth, inferior coaching, and inferior talent among them. Therefore, the better team is far more likely to win a playoff series than a one game, winner-take-all slugfest.
As I said, series are impractical at the college level and they are also impractical for the sport of football. So we circle back to the original point which was the best team does not necessarily win the NCAA Tournament. Usually it is the hottest team and when the better team is not the hotter team, a significant gap in talent can make up for that difference. With star college players staying in college for less and less time at the NBA stepping stone schools, the overall talent level at those schools has decreased while the talent level at smaller schools has increased.
What all of this boils down to is smaller schools are led by talented veteran players while many big-time programs are led by veteran role players and green stars. Because of the shrinking talent disparity between the big and small programs, Kansas can’t afford to shoot 35% against VCU and win. Louisville can’t go scoreless for their first 7 minutes against Morehead State and win. Is all of this a bad thing? Not at all. In my personal pantheon of sporting events, the World Series ranks first and just behind it is the NCAA Tournament. I don’t care that I do poorly in my family pool and I don’t care if the best teams are left on the sidelines, watching the Final Four on CBS (if they wanted to be on the court and not on the couch, they should have played better). It is a wonderful event and this year should prove once again that by getting in with a seed other than 16, anything can happen.
MOTIVATION
Another reason for so many of these upsets is the end goal that the teams have in mind. The NCAA Tournament is set-up with several stepping stones before you even reach the national title game. For instance, let’s look at a 2 seed is playing a 7 seed in the second round. The 2 seed is seen by many as a national title contender and they are expected to give the 1 seed in their region all they can handle in the Elite 8. The 7 seed, on the other hand, had a breakthrough year and made the tournament for the first time in the program’s history. The 2 seed has dreams of winning a national title while the 7 seed has dreams of making the Sweet 16.
So what happens? The 2 seed falls flat because they were looking at their potential match-ups in the next two or three rounds while the 7 seed played like their entire season was on the line. Invariably, the 7 seed will fall flat in the next round because they already achieved their goal of playing in the Sweet 16.
To cross to a different sport for a moment, in 2007, the Colorado Rockies had a truly unimaginable run to make it to the World Series, winning 21 of 22 games down the stretch and through the NLDS and NLCS. They achieved something beyond their wildest dreams and they won the National League. When the World Series started, they were happy to be there while their opponents, the Red Sox, were not happy to just be there. Predictably, the Rockies never really got into the series and lost 4-0.
Was Kansas looking ahead to the Final Four when VCU blitzed them? Possibly. Will VCU maintain their focus and not settle for just making it to the Final Four? History would suggest no but anything can happen.
EXPANSION
So if VCU was the last team into this tournament and they made this unbelievable run to the Final Four, then clearly the tournament would be better served by having more teams… right? Yes and no. Financially speaking, they would be better served. There would be more games (for instance, depending on format a 96 team field would yield 79 games versus 65 this year) which would mean that there are more opportunities for advertising revenue and ticket revenue and so on and so forth. For all the hot air spewing forth about how people will stop watching when the NCAA’s greed becomes so obvious that everyone can see it, people will still watch the NCAA tournament and companies will still pay big money for advertising. At this point in time, there is little to no incentive for the NCAA to NOT expand the tournament.
At what point would expansion harm the integrity of the tournament though? At what point would first round games be so pointless that the tournament has become more about the advertisers and less about the players? I felt very conflicted about having play-in games at the 11 and 12 seed level this year but in retrospect, having play-in games at those levels matters. Everyone knew that no matter who won between the University of North Carolina-Asheville and the University of Arkansas-Little Rock, they were going to get blown out by Pittsburgh (which UNCA did, 74-51). So I’ll admit that this little quirk in the selection process worked this year. However, that is no guarantee that it will work next year or any other year in the future.
In short, expanding the tournament any further is not a good idea. There is a beauty and a symmetry of having 16 teams in 4 different regions and have one representative from each play-off for the national title and I think if you do a little searching around the internet, you’ll find a ton of people who agree with me. The problem is that those same people (myself included) won’t stop watching if the powers that be keep expanding it… which means there’s no reason not to.
Right?
Nope.
Based on their resume, they were a shaky 11 seed at best and they were a hair’s breadth from not even being in the tournament, First Four or not. But then how else can you explain the meteoric rise from a 23-11 regular season record to steamrolling a team from every major conference except the SEC and with the exception of their Florida State game, doing so by at least 10 points? Clearly they were underrated coming into the NCAA tournament.
Right?
Again, nope.
Every year, the NCAA tournament, accurately nicknamed “March Madness”, claims to crown the best team in all of college basketball. However, if you look at the winners closely and then look at the performance of teams during the regular season, that statement isn’t always true. In the past 29 NCAA tournaments, only 4 times has a team entered the tournament ranked #1 in the country and then gone on to win the national title. Let’s compare that, for just a moment, to everyone’s favorite punching bag; the BCS.
Since the inception of the BCS in 1998, how many times has the 10th best team in the country won the national title? That’s right, never. How many times has a team ranked as low at 40th had a shot at a national title this late in a season? Same as before, never. If you look strictly at seeds (and assume that each of these four teams was the best on their seed line), this Final Four is matching up the 9th, 13th, 29th, and 41st best teams in the country.
In this day and age of rampant parity, the NCAA Tournament does not necessarily crown the best team; it crowns the hottest team. The story has become downright famous by now but 24 days ago, Connecticut was 21-9 and facing a tremendous challenge. At some point in their preparation for the Big East tournament they caught fire and haven’t lost since and currently they are the highest seed left in the Big Dance.
No matter what format you choose to determine a national champion, as long as the results are determined on the field of play, there is always a chance that a lesser team will win and the true best team will be left behind. However, there is a way to minimize the chances of this happening but they are thoroughly impractical at the college level; playoff series.
Can a lesser team beat a better team in one game with everything on the line? Of course they can. VCU proved that last weekend by outplaying a better Kansas team. Could VCU beat Kansas 4 times in a 7 game series? Yes, they can, but if you want to put money on VCU, I’ll take that bet every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Playoff series expose lesser teams for all the faults that make them lesser teams; not as much depth, inferior coaching, and inferior talent among them. Therefore, the better team is far more likely to win a playoff series than a one game, winner-take-all slugfest.
As I said, series are impractical at the college level and they are also impractical for the sport of football. So we circle back to the original point which was the best team does not necessarily win the NCAA Tournament. Usually it is the hottest team and when the better team is not the hotter team, a significant gap in talent can make up for that difference. With star college players staying in college for less and less time at the NBA stepping stone schools, the overall talent level at those schools has decreased while the talent level at smaller schools has increased.
What all of this boils down to is smaller schools are led by talented veteran players while many big-time programs are led by veteran role players and green stars. Because of the shrinking talent disparity between the big and small programs, Kansas can’t afford to shoot 35% against VCU and win. Louisville can’t go scoreless for their first 7 minutes against Morehead State and win. Is all of this a bad thing? Not at all. In my personal pantheon of sporting events, the World Series ranks first and just behind it is the NCAA Tournament. I don’t care that I do poorly in my family pool and I don’t care if the best teams are left on the sidelines, watching the Final Four on CBS (if they wanted to be on the court and not on the couch, they should have played better). It is a wonderful event and this year should prove once again that by getting in with a seed other than 16, anything can happen.
MOTIVATION
Another reason for so many of these upsets is the end goal that the teams have in mind. The NCAA Tournament is set-up with several stepping stones before you even reach the national title game. For instance, let’s look at a 2 seed is playing a 7 seed in the second round. The 2 seed is seen by many as a national title contender and they are expected to give the 1 seed in their region all they can handle in the Elite 8. The 7 seed, on the other hand, had a breakthrough year and made the tournament for the first time in the program’s history. The 2 seed has dreams of winning a national title while the 7 seed has dreams of making the Sweet 16.
So what happens? The 2 seed falls flat because they were looking at their potential match-ups in the next two or three rounds while the 7 seed played like their entire season was on the line. Invariably, the 7 seed will fall flat in the next round because they already achieved their goal of playing in the Sweet 16.
To cross to a different sport for a moment, in 2007, the Colorado Rockies had a truly unimaginable run to make it to the World Series, winning 21 of 22 games down the stretch and through the NLDS and NLCS. They achieved something beyond their wildest dreams and they won the National League. When the World Series started, they were happy to be there while their opponents, the Red Sox, were not happy to just be there. Predictably, the Rockies never really got into the series and lost 4-0.
Was Kansas looking ahead to the Final Four when VCU blitzed them? Possibly. Will VCU maintain their focus and not settle for just making it to the Final Four? History would suggest no but anything can happen.
EXPANSION
So if VCU was the last team into this tournament and they made this unbelievable run to the Final Four, then clearly the tournament would be better served by having more teams… right? Yes and no. Financially speaking, they would be better served. There would be more games (for instance, depending on format a 96 team field would yield 79 games versus 65 this year) which would mean that there are more opportunities for advertising revenue and ticket revenue and so on and so forth. For all the hot air spewing forth about how people will stop watching when the NCAA’s greed becomes so obvious that everyone can see it, people will still watch the NCAA tournament and companies will still pay big money for advertising. At this point in time, there is little to no incentive for the NCAA to NOT expand the tournament.
At what point would expansion harm the integrity of the tournament though? At what point would first round games be so pointless that the tournament has become more about the advertisers and less about the players? I felt very conflicted about having play-in games at the 11 and 12 seed level this year but in retrospect, having play-in games at those levels matters. Everyone knew that no matter who won between the University of North Carolina-Asheville and the University of Arkansas-Little Rock, they were going to get blown out by Pittsburgh (which UNCA did, 74-51). So I’ll admit that this little quirk in the selection process worked this year. However, that is no guarantee that it will work next year or any other year in the future.
In short, expanding the tournament any further is not a good idea. There is a beauty and a symmetry of having 16 teams in 4 different regions and have one representative from each play-off for the national title and I think if you do a little searching around the internet, you’ll find a ton of people who agree with me. The problem is that those same people (myself included) won’t stop watching if the powers that be keep expanding it… which means there’s no reason not to.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
MARCH MADNESS IN FULL SWING
First of all, I have to ask… how is your bracket looking? That bad, huh? Well don’t feel too bad about it because the NCAA men’s basketball tournament is turning into an exercise in roulette. On paper, I can tell you what should have happened in each of the four play-in games, each of the 32 second round games, and each of the 16 third round games but as they say so many times that I’m sick of hearing it, games are not played on paper.
Similarly to last year, I attempted to look at the field of 68 from a statistical perspective and determine who should be the best team in the country and just like last year, I was able to predict some very interesting upsets and I also fell drastically short on others.
Before I go any further, for the sake of this post, the word “upset” will be used to describe a game in which a lower seed beats a higher seed… that’s all. Secondly, even though I referred to them correctly in the first paragraph, I will break with the new convention set this year. There were four play-in games, 32 games in the first round, and 16 games in the second round. I do not consider it a round when 8 teams are playing and 60 teams are sitting at home. I will arbitrarily say that half the teams in the field should be playing to qualify as the first round. Maybe if the number increases to 16 or 32 teams then I can call it the preliminary round or maybe the wildcard round but the first round is still when the majority of teams are playing for the first time.
Now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, why do I call this tournament a complete gamble? Entirely due to one thing that professional leagues strive for and college leagues have – parity. The interesting part is that with regards to the NCAA tournament, parity does not mean that any team can break through and win a national championship. It simply means that any team can play for forty solid minutes with any other team in the field. When I looked at this field, I see 6-8 legitimate title contenders (Kansas, Ohio State, Duke, Pittsburgh, Florida, North Carolina, and Connecticut). I also see 6-8 teams that have little to no business being in this tournament but they won their conference tournaments so they get in automatically as a 15 or 16 seed and I’m fine with that. What we’re left with is anywhere from 52 to 56 teams that are on relatively similar ground and this theory is proven out by the fact that there are relatively few blowouts (outside of the group of title contenders I mentioned earlier) and there are 3 teams with seeds higher than 10 in the sweet 16.
There are such things as flukes but was Butler a fluke? Several of the analysts said that Richmond was a very tough draw as a number 12 seed and while they did not play Louisville, they were easily the best team on the floor against Morehead State (#13) and Vanderbilt (#5). Washington was a #7 seed and yet gave #2 North Carolina every bit that they could handle and nearly came away with a victory despite doing their best to lose the game.
My point in all of this is the seeds are blurring together. The difference between a #3 and a #12 might be nothing more than who they played during the season, the luck they had with injuries, the conference they played in, and individual match-ups they have. What makes this tournament so wonderful and so terribly difficult to predict is the fact that if Jimmer Fredette shoots the ball well and his teammates also shoot the ball well, BYU looks like a national title contender. Against Gonzaga, they were 14-28 from 3-point range and shot 52.5% overall en route to scoring 89 points and routing the Bulldogs. In their last game before the NCAA tourney on March 12, they were 19-59 from the floor (32.2%) and 6-24 from 3 point range (25%) and they were destroyed by San Diego State.
Much was made during the selection show and the three days leading up to the start of the first round about how many losses there were for these teams and many people took that to be an indictment of the overall quality of the field, saying that it was very low. However, I take a differing view. Simply put, parity rules. On March 15th, the final AP poll was released and in the top 25, five teams had 10 or more losses and another two had 9 losses. Four of those seven teams were from one conference that is widely considered the deepest and best basketball conference in the country, the Big East.
Is #9 Connecticut (26-9) a better team than #10 BYU (30-4)? According to record, no they aren’t. However, when you take into account that of Connecticut’s 9 losses, six came to teams ranked at the time, two came to teams ranked in the final AP poll, and the last (Marquette) received votes in the final AP Poll, it sounds like they were all quality losses. Would a stronger team have won some of those games? Of course, but when one team plays just three games against ranked opponents and the other plays 15 game against ranked opponents, 26-9 starts to look a lot better than 30-4.
On top of all of this, when filling out a bracket you have no idea who is going to show up. Louisville was 7 minutes into their game against Morehead State when they scored their first point. I was sure that the dry spell would end after three or so minutes when Louisville was fouled while shooting and had two free throws (which were both missed). On the flipside of the Louisville/Pittsburgh coin, Ohio State came in as a bit of a wildcard for me considering they have had some underachieving tournament teams in the past. Right now, they are playing like the number one overall seed and after spotting George Mason an 11-2 lead, they ran them out of the state of Ohio, cruising to a final score of 98-66.
SWEET 16 PREDICTIONS
Out of the final 16 teams, I correctly predicted 7 of them (Kansas from the Southwest, Ohio State and Kentucky from the East, Duke and San Diego State from the West, and BYU and Florida from the Southeast). Given that wonderful record and that I’ve correctly predicted just 31 of 48 games correctly, take this all with a grain of salt (or a salt mine worth of salt).
EAST
North Carolina likes to give up points (170 in two tournament games thus far) but they are good enough offensively. They will get past Marquette.
Kentucky is good. Ohio State could be the only great team in this field and they are clicking on all 10 (12, I don’t know, 16?) cylinders.
Regional Final – Ohio State over North Carolina
WEST
Duke struggled mightily against Michigan and Arizona has played well enough to put together last minute victories against Memphis and Texas.
Connecticut is somehow continuing their streak from the Big East tournament but they face a very solid San Diego State squad.
Regional Final – sticking to my guns, San Diego State will advance to Houston by beating Duke.
SOUTHWEST
Kansas isn’t playing like the Buckeyes but they are playing well and winning solidly.
The other three teams in the region are seeded 10th, 11th, and 12th.
Regional Final – Kansas over the three dwarves, becoming just the second team ever to advance to the Final Four by never having to play a team seeded higher than 9.
SOUTHEAST
Butler is scrapping by and they are an exceedingly dangerous team due to their veteran presence. Despite Wisconsin’s success thus far this is a team that scored 33 points in losing to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament. That performance would fly in 1950 but not 2011.
Is Florida going to be able to stop the Jimmer Show? The answer is it doesn’t matter. They have to stop the other eleven guys on the roster. Against Gonzaga, BYU players not named Fredette were 20-36 from the floor and 7-16 from 3 point range for 55 points. Against San Diego State, those numbers were 9-34, 4-17, and 24 points.
Regional Final – Butler makes a return trip to the Final Four by beating whoever survives the seven overtime slugfest between Florida and BYU.
FINAL FOUR
Butler continues their magic by beating Kansas (and thus ruining any chance my bracket had at respectability) and Ohio State steamrolls San Diego State who is just overjoyed to be in the Final Four.
On Monday, Ohio State takes a 20 point lead into halftime. Once everyone changes the channel to see how well Rob Lowe will do as Charlie Sheen’s replacement on “Two and a Half Men”, Butler starts chipping away, tying the game with ten seconds left. True to this tournament’s form, Butler is called for a reach-in foul 60 feet from the hoop and the fouled Buckeye steps to the line and calmly sinks two free throws with four seconds remaining.
Then Matt Howard does what Gordon Hayward couldn’t do last year; hit a halfcourt runner at the buzzer to win the game 73-72.
Wow, I got my heart pumping just thinking about that. Enjoy the basketball people, this is the best ball that you’re likely to ever see.
(having said all that, it’d be nice but far more likely is Ohio State and Kansas playing a three overtime epic and the Buckeyes prevailing to take the trophy)
Similarly to last year, I attempted to look at the field of 68 from a statistical perspective and determine who should be the best team in the country and just like last year, I was able to predict some very interesting upsets and I also fell drastically short on others.
Before I go any further, for the sake of this post, the word “upset” will be used to describe a game in which a lower seed beats a higher seed… that’s all. Secondly, even though I referred to them correctly in the first paragraph, I will break with the new convention set this year. There were four play-in games, 32 games in the first round, and 16 games in the second round. I do not consider it a round when 8 teams are playing and 60 teams are sitting at home. I will arbitrarily say that half the teams in the field should be playing to qualify as the first round. Maybe if the number increases to 16 or 32 teams then I can call it the preliminary round or maybe the wildcard round but the first round is still when the majority of teams are playing for the first time.
Now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, why do I call this tournament a complete gamble? Entirely due to one thing that professional leagues strive for and college leagues have – parity. The interesting part is that with regards to the NCAA tournament, parity does not mean that any team can break through and win a national championship. It simply means that any team can play for forty solid minutes with any other team in the field. When I looked at this field, I see 6-8 legitimate title contenders (Kansas, Ohio State, Duke, Pittsburgh, Florida, North Carolina, and Connecticut). I also see 6-8 teams that have little to no business being in this tournament but they won their conference tournaments so they get in automatically as a 15 or 16 seed and I’m fine with that. What we’re left with is anywhere from 52 to 56 teams that are on relatively similar ground and this theory is proven out by the fact that there are relatively few blowouts (outside of the group of title contenders I mentioned earlier) and there are 3 teams with seeds higher than 10 in the sweet 16.
There are such things as flukes but was Butler a fluke? Several of the analysts said that Richmond was a very tough draw as a number 12 seed and while they did not play Louisville, they were easily the best team on the floor against Morehead State (#13) and Vanderbilt (#5). Washington was a #7 seed and yet gave #2 North Carolina every bit that they could handle and nearly came away with a victory despite doing their best to lose the game.
My point in all of this is the seeds are blurring together. The difference between a #3 and a #12 might be nothing more than who they played during the season, the luck they had with injuries, the conference they played in, and individual match-ups they have. What makes this tournament so wonderful and so terribly difficult to predict is the fact that if Jimmer Fredette shoots the ball well and his teammates also shoot the ball well, BYU looks like a national title contender. Against Gonzaga, they were 14-28 from 3-point range and shot 52.5% overall en route to scoring 89 points and routing the Bulldogs. In their last game before the NCAA tourney on March 12, they were 19-59 from the floor (32.2%) and 6-24 from 3 point range (25%) and they were destroyed by San Diego State.
Much was made during the selection show and the three days leading up to the start of the first round about how many losses there were for these teams and many people took that to be an indictment of the overall quality of the field, saying that it was very low. However, I take a differing view. Simply put, parity rules. On March 15th, the final AP poll was released and in the top 25, five teams had 10 or more losses and another two had 9 losses. Four of those seven teams were from one conference that is widely considered the deepest and best basketball conference in the country, the Big East.
Is #9 Connecticut (26-9) a better team than #10 BYU (30-4)? According to record, no they aren’t. However, when you take into account that of Connecticut’s 9 losses, six came to teams ranked at the time, two came to teams ranked in the final AP poll, and the last (Marquette) received votes in the final AP Poll, it sounds like they were all quality losses. Would a stronger team have won some of those games? Of course, but when one team plays just three games against ranked opponents and the other plays 15 game against ranked opponents, 26-9 starts to look a lot better than 30-4.
On top of all of this, when filling out a bracket you have no idea who is going to show up. Louisville was 7 minutes into their game against Morehead State when they scored their first point. I was sure that the dry spell would end after three or so minutes when Louisville was fouled while shooting and had two free throws (which were both missed). On the flipside of the Louisville/Pittsburgh coin, Ohio State came in as a bit of a wildcard for me considering they have had some underachieving tournament teams in the past. Right now, they are playing like the number one overall seed and after spotting George Mason an 11-2 lead, they ran them out of the state of Ohio, cruising to a final score of 98-66.
SWEET 16 PREDICTIONS
Out of the final 16 teams, I correctly predicted 7 of them (Kansas from the Southwest, Ohio State and Kentucky from the East, Duke and San Diego State from the West, and BYU and Florida from the Southeast). Given that wonderful record and that I’ve correctly predicted just 31 of 48 games correctly, take this all with a grain of salt (or a salt mine worth of salt).
EAST
North Carolina likes to give up points (170 in two tournament games thus far) but they are good enough offensively. They will get past Marquette.
Kentucky is good. Ohio State could be the only great team in this field and they are clicking on all 10 (12, I don’t know, 16?) cylinders.
Regional Final – Ohio State over North Carolina
WEST
Duke struggled mightily against Michigan and Arizona has played well enough to put together last minute victories against Memphis and Texas.
Connecticut is somehow continuing their streak from the Big East tournament but they face a very solid San Diego State squad.
Regional Final – sticking to my guns, San Diego State will advance to Houston by beating Duke.
SOUTHWEST
Kansas isn’t playing like the Buckeyes but they are playing well and winning solidly.
The other three teams in the region are seeded 10th, 11th, and 12th.
Regional Final – Kansas over the three dwarves, becoming just the second team ever to advance to the Final Four by never having to play a team seeded higher than 9.
SOUTHEAST
Butler is scrapping by and they are an exceedingly dangerous team due to their veteran presence. Despite Wisconsin’s success thus far this is a team that scored 33 points in losing to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament. That performance would fly in 1950 but not 2011.
Is Florida going to be able to stop the Jimmer Show? The answer is it doesn’t matter. They have to stop the other eleven guys on the roster. Against Gonzaga, BYU players not named Fredette were 20-36 from the floor and 7-16 from 3 point range for 55 points. Against San Diego State, those numbers were 9-34, 4-17, and 24 points.
Regional Final – Butler makes a return trip to the Final Four by beating whoever survives the seven overtime slugfest between Florida and BYU.
FINAL FOUR
Butler continues their magic by beating Kansas (and thus ruining any chance my bracket had at respectability) and Ohio State steamrolls San Diego State who is just overjoyed to be in the Final Four.
On Monday, Ohio State takes a 20 point lead into halftime. Once everyone changes the channel to see how well Rob Lowe will do as Charlie Sheen’s replacement on “Two and a Half Men”, Butler starts chipping away, tying the game with ten seconds left. True to this tournament’s form, Butler is called for a reach-in foul 60 feet from the hoop and the fouled Buckeye steps to the line and calmly sinks two free throws with four seconds remaining.
Then Matt Howard does what Gordon Hayward couldn’t do last year; hit a halfcourt runner at the buzzer to win the game 73-72.
Wow, I got my heart pumping just thinking about that. Enjoy the basketball people, this is the best ball that you’re likely to ever see.
(having said all that, it’d be nice but far more likely is Ohio State and Kansas playing a three overtime epic and the Buckeyes prevailing to take the trophy)
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