MARCH MADNESS IN FULL SWING

First of all, I have to ask… how is your bracket looking? That bad, huh? Well don’t feel too bad about it because the NCAA men’s basketball tournament is turning into an exercise in roulette. On paper, I can tell you what should have happened in each of the four play-in games, each of the 32 second round games, and each of the 16 third round games but as they say so many times that I’m sick of hearing it, games are not played on paper.

Similarly to last year, I attempted to look at the field of 68 from a statistical perspective and determine who should be the best team in the country and just like last year, I was able to predict some very interesting upsets and I also fell drastically short on others.

Before I go any further, for the sake of this post, the word “upset” will be used to describe a game in which a lower seed beats a higher seed… that’s all. Secondly, even though I referred to them correctly in the first paragraph, I will break with the new convention set this year. There were four play-in games, 32 games in the first round, and 16 games in the second round. I do not consider it a round when 8 teams are playing and 60 teams are sitting at home. I will arbitrarily say that half the teams in the field should be playing to qualify as the first round. Maybe if the number increases to 16 or 32 teams then I can call it the preliminary round or maybe the wildcard round but the first round is still when the majority of teams are playing for the first time.

Now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, why do I call this tournament a complete gamble? Entirely due to one thing that professional leagues strive for and college leagues have – parity. The interesting part is that with regards to the NCAA tournament, parity does not mean that any team can break through and win a national championship. It simply means that any team can play for forty solid minutes with any other team in the field. When I looked at this field, I see 6-8 legitimate title contenders (Kansas, Ohio State, Duke, Pittsburgh, Florida, North Carolina, and Connecticut). I also see 6-8 teams that have little to no business being in this tournament but they won their conference tournaments so they get in automatically as a 15 or 16 seed and I’m fine with that. What we’re left with is anywhere from 52 to 56 teams that are on relatively similar ground and this theory is proven out by the fact that there are relatively few blowouts (outside of the group of title contenders I mentioned earlier) and there are 3 teams with seeds higher than 10 in the sweet 16.

There are such things as flukes but was Butler a fluke? Several of the analysts said that Richmond was a very tough draw as a number 12 seed and while they did not play Louisville, they were easily the best team on the floor against Morehead State (#13) and Vanderbilt (#5). Washington was a #7 seed and yet gave #2 North Carolina every bit that they could handle and nearly came away with a victory despite doing their best to lose the game.

My point in all of this is the seeds are blurring together. The difference between a #3 and a #12 might be nothing more than who they played during the season, the luck they had with injuries, the conference they played in, and individual match-ups they have. What makes this tournament so wonderful and so terribly difficult to predict is the fact that if Jimmer Fredette shoots the ball well and his teammates also shoot the ball well, BYU looks like a national title contender. Against Gonzaga, they were 14-28 from 3-point range and shot 52.5% overall en route to scoring 89 points and routing the Bulldogs. In their last game before the NCAA tourney on March 12, they were 19-59 from the floor (32.2%) and 6-24 from 3 point range (25%) and they were destroyed by San Diego State.

Much was made during the selection show and the three days leading up to the start of the first round about how many losses there were for these teams and many people took that to be an indictment of the overall quality of the field, saying that it was very low. However, I take a differing view. Simply put, parity rules. On March 15th, the final AP poll was released and in the top 25, five teams had 10 or more losses and another two had 9 losses. Four of those seven teams were from one conference that is widely considered the deepest and best basketball conference in the country, the Big East.

Is #9 Connecticut (26-9) a better team than #10 BYU (30-4)? According to record, no they aren’t. However, when you take into account that of Connecticut’s 9 losses, six came to teams ranked at the time, two came to teams ranked in the final AP poll, and the last (Marquette) received votes in the final AP Poll, it sounds like they were all quality losses. Would a stronger team have won some of those games? Of course, but when one team plays just three games against ranked opponents and the other plays 15 game against ranked opponents, 26-9 starts to look a lot better than 30-4.

On top of all of this, when filling out a bracket you have no idea who is going to show up. Louisville was 7 minutes into their game against Morehead State when they scored their first point. I was sure that the dry spell would end after three or so minutes when Louisville was fouled while shooting and had two free throws (which were both missed). On the flipside of the Louisville/Pittsburgh coin, Ohio State came in as a bit of a wildcard for me considering they have had some underachieving tournament teams in the past. Right now, they are playing like the number one overall seed and after spotting George Mason an 11-2 lead, they ran them out of the state of Ohio, cruising to a final score of 98-66.


SWEET 16 PREDICTIONS

Out of the final 16 teams, I correctly predicted 7 of them (Kansas from the Southwest, Ohio State and Kentucky from the East, Duke and San Diego State from the West, and BYU and Florida from the Southeast). Given that wonderful record and that I’ve correctly predicted just 31 of 48 games correctly, take this all with a grain of salt (or a salt mine worth of salt).

EAST

North Carolina likes to give up points (170 in two tournament games thus far) but they are good enough offensively. They will get past Marquette.

Kentucky is good. Ohio State could be the only great team in this field and they are clicking on all 10 (12, I don’t know, 16?) cylinders.

Regional Final – Ohio State over North Carolina

WEST

Duke struggled mightily against Michigan and Arizona has played well enough to put together last minute victories against Memphis and Texas.

Connecticut is somehow continuing their streak from the Big East tournament but they face a very solid San Diego State squad.

Regional Final – sticking to my guns, San Diego State will advance to Houston by beating Duke.

SOUTHWEST

Kansas isn’t playing like the Buckeyes but they are playing well and winning solidly.

The other three teams in the region are seeded 10th, 11th, and 12th.

Regional Final – Kansas over the three dwarves, becoming just the second team ever to advance to the Final Four by never having to play a team seeded higher than 9.

SOUTHEAST

Butler is scrapping by and they are an exceedingly dangerous team due to their veteran presence. Despite Wisconsin’s success thus far this is a team that scored 33 points in losing to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament. That performance would fly in 1950 but not 2011.

Is Florida going to be able to stop the Jimmer Show? The answer is it doesn’t matter. They have to stop the other eleven guys on the roster. Against Gonzaga, BYU players not named Fredette were 20-36 from the floor and 7-16 from 3 point range for 55 points. Against San Diego State, those numbers were 9-34, 4-17, and 24 points.

Regional Final – Butler makes a return trip to the Final Four by beating whoever survives the seven overtime slugfest between Florida and BYU.

FINAL FOUR

Butler continues their magic by beating Kansas (and thus ruining any chance my bracket had at respectability) and Ohio State steamrolls San Diego State who is just overjoyed to be in the Final Four.

On Monday, Ohio State takes a 20 point lead into halftime. Once everyone changes the channel to see how well Rob Lowe will do as Charlie Sheen’s replacement on “Two and a Half Men”, Butler starts chipping away, tying the game with ten seconds left. True to this tournament’s form, Butler is called for a reach-in foul 60 feet from the hoop and the fouled Buckeye steps to the line and calmly sinks two free throws with four seconds remaining.

Then Matt Howard does what Gordon Hayward couldn’t do last year; hit a halfcourt runner at the buzzer to win the game 73-72.


Wow, I got my heart pumping just thinking about that. Enjoy the basketball people, this is the best ball that you’re likely to ever see.




(having said all that, it’d be nice but far more likely is Ohio State and Kansas playing a three overtime epic and the Buckeyes prevailing to take the trophy)