FIRST HALF REVIEW

Shutouts, no-hitters, and perfect games, oh my! 78 different times in the first half of the season did a starting pitcher throw 9 innings, with a few of them not getting a decision or a complete game due to the other starting pitcher. Of those 78, 37 of them did not allow a single run in those 9 innings and of those, 7 gave up only one hit, two gave up no hits (with a few walks), and two didn’t allow a single baserunner.

So, is this the second coming of the Year of the Pitcher?

Not so fast.

The average GS across baseball in the first half of the season was 50.6. Not exactly an awe-inspiring number. The average line for starters was 6.0-6.0-3.1-2.8-2.1-4.5. In other words, respectable. On average, starting pitchers from April 4th to July 11th averaged a quality start and put up an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.35. You would certainly love to have those numbers somewhere in your rotation but if they’re at the top of your rotation, you’re probably in trouble.

Still, it doesn’t seem to jive that pitchers are averaging a quality start (barely) and there have already been so many outstanding pitching performances this season. The answer is quite simple; for every solid start or tremendous outing, there has been at least one (and sometimes more) games where starters had to struggle for every out they got and there were 4 cases where starters didn’t record a single out (in all fairness to John Maine, he walked one batter before leaving the game while the other three combined to allow 12 hits and 17 runs without getting an out).

In the first half, there were 74 games where starters recorded a GS above 80 with an average GS of 83.9 and an average line of 8.4-2.6-0.2-0.2-1.2-7.8. On the flipside of the coin, there were 119 games where the starter had a GS under 20 (3.2-8.5-7.6-7.2-2.4-2.2 for an average of 12.6) bottoming out on July 10th when Scott Kazmir of the Angels was asked to take a beating to help save the bullpen. All told, his 5.0-11-13-13-3-2 line was “good” for a GS of -8, the worst this year in the majors. The best, on the other hand, went to Roy Halladay, who threw the 20th perfect game in baseball history and nicely trumped Dallas Braden’s perfect game by striking out 11 (to Braden’s 6) for a GS of 98.

THE ALL-STARS

There was a lot of speculation leading up to the All-Star Game about the worthiness of Ubaldo Jimenez and David Price starting for their respective leagues. All I can say is don’t believe it. I can come up with a logical, statistical case for several different pitchers to start the ASG. Does this mean that Jimenez led the National League in average GS? Nope, but neither did Josh Johnson. That distinction goes to Adam Wainwright, who posted an average GS of 64.58. Let me ask you this and try with all your might to take any personal bias out of the equation; could you have picked just one of these three? Here are their average lines without their names.

7.2-5.4-1.8-1.7-1.8-6.7
6.8-4.9-1.4-1.3-1.6-6.8
7.1-4.8-1.7-1.7-2.6-6.3

If you know these three pitchers and their statistical leanings, you might be able to peg which is which. Wainwright is the first one, Josh Johnson is the second (average GS of 64.39), and Ubaldo Jimenez is the third one (average GS of 64.33). From first to third in the National League is 0.25 points. Tell me you can pick one of them over the other two without bias and I’ll say you’re lying. This doesn’t even take into account Roy Halladay, whose GS stands at 62.58. All told this could end up being one of the more interesting Cy Young races ever because right now, I’d call it a four horse race (with all due respect to every other pitcher in the NL).

In the AL, it is much clearer because one guy has been avoiding ball 4 like the plague. In his 14 starts this year, Cliff Lee is 8-4 with a 2.64 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. That becomes much more impressive when you take into account that in his last start (his first with Texas); he threw a complete game, gave up 6 runs, and still only threw 95 pitches. His average GS this year is 63.79, 3.35 points ahead of second place Jon Lester (and still almost a point behind the NL leader). He has walked 6 batters in 112.2 innings while striking out 91.

THE REST

If the season ended today, 110 pitchers would be eligible for the ERA titles (which would go to Josh Johnson and David Price) and those pitchers combined to perform slightly better than the major league average for GS (52.12). This would certainly lead me to believe that for the 8 guys averaging over 60, there have to be some that aren’t pulling their weight.

There are.

Nate Robertson is currently 54th in the NL which, yes, is currently dead last amongst qualified starters. His line of 5.3-5.9-3.6-3.1-2.2-3.0 has led to an average GS of 43.47, a record of 6-7, and a 5.32 ERA. The good news (if you can call it that) is that there are six other pitchers that have done worse than him, all in the AL. Not wanting to drag this out too much more, they are:

Justin Masterson (Indians)
3-8, 5.31 (W-L, ERA)
5.8-6.8-3.8-3.4-2.7-4.6 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-K)
43.17 (Ave. GS)

Brian Bannister (Royals)
7-7, 5.56
5.7-6.6-3.6-3.5-1.9-3.3
43.00

Scott Feldman (Rangers)
5-8, 5.32
6.0-7.8-4.1-3.6-1.8-3.5
42.94

Kevin Millwood (Orioles)
2-8, 5.77
6.0-7.5-4.2-3.8-1.9-4.7

Scott Kazmir (Angels)
7-9, 6.92
5.4-6.0-4.3-4.2-2.9-3.5
40.00

Nick Blackburn (Twins)
7-7, 6.40
5.7-7.9-4.3-4.1-1.6-2.0
37.06

TEAMS

Not surprisingly, the top four teams in average GS have a combined record of 204-148. San Francisco currently leads the way at 54.2 with the Yankees close behind at 54.0. The best team with a losing record is none other than my pick to win the AL West, the Seattle Mariners. Despite their 35-53 record, their starters have had an average GS of 52.9, fifth best in all of baseball. Another run per game out of that offense and they could very well be leading their division, but enough of how wrong I was…

The Pirates have had the worst starting pitching thus far this season and it’s difficult to use a word other than putrid. Their average GS is 42.2 and their ERA is 5.53.

Interestingly, only the Yankees and White Sox lead their division in the standings and are also getting the best starting pitching within the division. These are the current standings with their league rank in average GS in parentheses.

AL East

Yankees 56-32 (2nd)
Rays 54-34 (4th)
Red Sox 51-37 (12th)
Blue Jays 44-45 (21st)
Orioles 29-59 (29th)

AL Central

White Sox 49-38 (9th)
Tigers 48-38 (25th)
Twins 46-42 (18th)
Royals 39-49 (26th)
Indians 34-54 (28th)

AL West

Rangers 50-38 (22nd)
Angels 47-44 (16th)
Athletics 43-46 (11th)
Mariners 35-53 (5th)

NL East

Braves 52-36 (14th)
Mets 48-40 (20th)
Phillies 47-40 (7th)
Marlins 42-46 (15th)
Nationals 39-50 (27th)

NL Central

Reds 49-41 (10th)
Cardinals 47-41 (3rd)
Brewers 40-49 (24th)
Cubs 39-50 (6th)
Astros 36-53 (13th)
Pirates 30-58 (30th)

NL West

Padres 51-37 (8th)
Dodgers 49-39 (17th)
Rockies 49-39 (17th)
Giants 47-41 (1st)
Diamondbacks 34-55 (23rd)

There are many more games to be played and many more shutouts and blowouts to muse over. This is all I have for my first half review but later I’m going to look at my bold predictions and find out just how wrong I actually was (Yankees are in 1st, Phillies 3rd, Mariners last and all were picked to win their division).

Until next time, enjoy the baseball and enjoy the little things like Ubaldo Jimenez’s pursuit of 30 wins, the Padres, Reds, and Rangers trying to prolong their improbable run to division titles, and of course, every single pitch thrown by Stephen Strasburgh.

Isn’t baseball grand?