(Not So) Bold Predictions for the 2010 Season in Major League Baseball

I SHALL NEVER GIVE UP MY SOAPBOX!

So as some of you loyal readers may have noticed, I’m writing yet another post this weekend. Why? Well, I have time on my hands, it’s a holiday weekend, and I’m in the midst of a Stargate SG-1 marathon that requires little of my concentration. Also, I’ve wanted to write all of these for some time now. I’m sure that was a frightening glimpse into my life without my significant other around… oh well, we must all endure.

Anyways, back to this posting.

Of course, I’m going to start in the American League Western Division. I know, I grew up in Northwestern Washington and frankly, I don’t care.

THE SEATTLE MARINERS WILL WIN THE AL WEST

This is a classic case of the little engine that could. Last year they were coming off of a 101 loss season and expectations couldn’t have been much lower. Despite being outscored by 52 runs (640-692), they posted an 85-77 record, good enough for a third place finish in the division.

To be clear, I’m not saying that they’re going to win the West because they are a great team. They have excellent chemistry on their roster and arguably had one of the greatest offseasons in Major League Baseball, adding former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee to Cy Young contender Felix Hernandez. The top of their rotation will be one of the best in baseball as will the top of their lineup with perennial 200 hit-man Ichiro Suzuki and the addition of Chone Figgins from the Angels of Southern California (past that it gets murky).

The Mariners new management improved upon a team that overachieved and had some significant injury issues as well. On top of that, the Angels suffered great losses from a very good team that will still be competitive. However, the psychological edge that the Angels have had for the past few years over this division is broken due to their relatively lackluster offseason. This is one of the most wide open divisions in baseball for many reasons, one of which that I didn’t even mention is the fact that if the Texas Rangers are able to pitch at all this upcoming year, they’ll be just as dangerous as anyone else.

CLIFF LEE AND FELIX HERNANDEZ WILL BOTH COMPETE FOR THE CY YOUNG

This prediction isn’t terribly bold. First of all, Felix Hernandez was 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA and 217 strikeouts last year en route to a second place finish in the Cy Young voting (to Zach Grienke). After an up and down first 5 full seasons in Cleveland, Cliff Lee developed into one of the best pitchers in the league. After his 22-3 season in 2008, Lee split time last year between Cleveland and Philadelphia and still went 14-13 with a 3.22 ERA and pitched much better than those numbers would imply. Most importantly, he is going from a ballpark that has been a haven for hitters ever since its opening (Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia) to a stadium that has been very kind to pitchers (Safeco Field in Seattle).

Put that in the hopper and it gives the Mariners two bona fide candidates for the Cy Young award and a solid argument for the best pitching rotation in baseball.

THE YANKEES WILL WIN THE AL EAST

REALLY outside the box on that one but one of the more obvious divisions to predict this coming year. They won the division last year and won the World Series and they’ve actually gotten better. Well, the first two are facts and the third is my opinion but they wanted to get younger and they succeeded, essentially swapping Curtis Granderson for Johnny Damon. If the Yankees get the 2009 version of Granderson (.249/.327/.453 BA/OBP/SLG) they’ll still be well off in that swap because of Granderson’s ability to play the outfield and run the bases.

If however, they get the 07-08 version of Granderson (.292/.363/.524), the Yankees might be even better than the team that just won 103 games as well as the World Series.

TIM LINCECUM WILL NOT WIN A THIRD STRAIGHT CY YOUNG AWARD

In two full seasons, Lincecum has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, going 33-12 with a 2.55 ERA and 526 strikeouts (MLB best) in just 452.1 innings pitched while garnering back to back Cy Young awards. This offseason he’s been in the news a bit more than he or the Giants would like, first with the marijuana incident and then the arbitration case that could have been much more disastrous than it ended up being and ultimately resulted in a 2 year, $23 million contract avoiding a potential arbitration nightmare on one or both sides.

Having said this, it’s not uncommon, and in fact it’s quite common, for professional athletes to have outstanding years when they stand to garner a huge contract the following offseason and then follow up the contract with a somewhat disappointing year in the first year of their new contract. It’s not that their trying less, it’s just that there is a bit of a relief that they got their new deal.

Tim Lincecum earned $650,000 last year and won the Cy Young and the year before that he earned $405,000. Over the next two years he’ll make $23 million and if he’s smart with money that will set him up for the rest of his life, despite the fact that he’s only going to be 27 when this contract expires. There is the possibility that he continues to dominate the National League for years to come and eventually challenges all-time records of all kinds.

There is also the possibility that he relaxes, having gotten his huge contract (at least compared with his last contracts, not compared to the league in general) and proceeds to fall apart as a player. I hope with every shred of my being that the latter does not come to pass but there are many temptations in the world today for a twenty-something guy with tens of millions of dollars at his disposal.

I predict that there will be a letdown from his unbelievable Cy Young form of the past two years but he will still pitch well with moments of brilliance this coming year. He just won’t become the third pitcher ever to win 3 straight Cy Young Awards (Greg Maddux from 1992-1995 and Randy Johnson from 1999-2002).

ALBERT PUJOLS WILL WIN THE NL MVP AWARD

Ok seriously? He’s been in the top 3 of MVP voting 7 times in 9 years, including 3 seconds and 3 MVP awards. His career lows, LOWS mind you, are a .314 batting average, 32 home runs, and 103 runs batted in. His worst OPS was .955 in 2002, which was still 51% better than league average (according to the OPS+ metric).

And he’s done all of this while playing Gold Glove caliber defense. Really bold of me to predict that one huh?

JOE MAUER WILL WIN THE AL MVP AWARD

Nobody in baseball plays a more difficult position better than he does. His days of hitting .350 as a catcher are definitely numbered and his shift to first base is inevitable to maintain his bat but while he does stay at catcher, we will be treated with every game he plays.

All I hope for Joe Mauer is that he stays healthy and humble and brings a World Series title to Minnesota.

THE YANKEES WILL BEAT THE MARINERS FOR THE AL CROWN

Cliff Lee will get frustrated by the Yankees yet again as he and Felix Hernandez combine to win three games but also leave two games with leads that the bullpen ultimately loses for them.

THE PHILLIES WILL BEAT WHOEVER THEY PLAY IN THE NLCS

They have too much talent for the rest of the National League and the biggest move they made this offseason was replacing one Cy Young winner (Lee) with another (Halladay).

THE YANKEES WILL BEAT THE PHILLIES AGAIN IN THE WORLD SERIES

The last time that two teams repeated as American and National League Champions also involved the New York Yankees. They played the LA Dodgers in 1977 and 1978, winning both times. It’ll happen again this year when Curtis Grandserson inexplicably steals two bases on one play late in game 6…




I leave you with this interesting note for any of you who doubt that the Yankees are the premiere franchise in professional sports in this country and arguably, around the world.

There have been 55 players that have won 5 or more World Series rings, topped by Yogi Berra with 10. Of those 55, only 4 did not win at least one with the Yankees and 39 of those 55 won all their rings with the Yankees. Those 55 players combined to win 322 World Series rings and 278 of them were won with the Yankees. Next on the list were the Philadelphia/Oakland Athletics (24 rings), the Boston Red Sox (9), the St. Louis Cardinals (4), and the Toronto Blue Jays (2). No other team was represented more than once.

Only 14 times has a team won consecutive World Series and six of those times, it was done by the Yankees. Of those 14, only 4 of them extended beyond two years. The Oakland Athletics of 1972-1974 won three straight titles and then the Yankees from 1936-1939, 1949-1953, and 1998-2000 won 4, 5, and 3 straight respectively.

Hate the Yankees all you want because they spend more on payroll than the government spends on welfare (ok, not really but it’s a lot). Hate them because their fans and to a certain extent the team carry themselves with an arrogance that is just annoying as hell. Whatever you do, don’t dare try to say they aren’t good.