World Series Preview

Six of the seven series are in the books for the 2010 postseason and through some fluke of luck, I’m still batting .500. The Rays were the only team to defy my predictions in the division series and then both the Yankees and Phillies, looking to provide the first World Series rematch in back-to-back years since 1977 and 1978 when the Yankees beat the Dodgers 4-2 in both years, fell flat in their respective LCS, managing just two wins.

So, it is time to admit that yes, after years of frustrations and records propped up by playing in one of the weakest divisions in baseball, the Rangers are for real. It can all be traced back to July 9th when they were bold and daring and audacious and said that no matter how good they were (50-36, 4.5 games ahead of second place) they could be better. That was the day that they acquired former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee from the last place Seattle Mariners and despite struggling their way to a 90-72 regular season record, they had all the pieces in place for a deep postseason run; I just didn’t believe in them.

On the other side of things, the San Francisco Giants needed all 162 games to secure their playoff spot, beating the Padres on the last day of the regular season to avoid a three way tie between them, the Padres, and the Braves for just two playoff spots. Their starting pitching carried them into the playoffs with an otherworldly September and much like in the American League, I thought their starters would do well but I got blinded by the stars in the LCS.

BY THE NUMBERS

In the division series, Texas hit .253/.286/.437 and outscored the Rays 21-13. In the LCS, those numbers jumped to .304/.378/.512 and 38-19, respectively, outscoring the Yankees by more than any single team has ever outscored them in a single series. How’s that for making playoff history?

While Tommy Hunter and CJ Lewis struggled a bit against the Yankees (0-1 in three games, 11 ER in 15.1 innings), Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis were more than enough to pick up the slack (3-0, 3 ER, 26 K in 21.2 innings) and history has shown time and time again that two reliable starters can certainly be enough to win a 7 game series.

After an abysmal batting line in the DS (.212/.288/.295) the Giants didn’t do much better in the LCS, though there was a definite improvement (.244/.301/.353) and considering they were going against a much more formidable staff in the LCS than the DS, this difference becomes very significant. The oddest thing about the Giants so far this postseason is despite their 7-3 record, they have managed to barely outscore their opponents by a total score of 30-29 (by contrast, the Rangers are 7-4 and have a run differential of 59-32). So the obvious question surrounding the Giants is will they be able to score enough runs and hold the Rangers to few enough runs to get four more wins?

X-FACTOR

For the Giants, I could say their entire offense is the x-factor. Their pitching staff will hold the Rangers to a winnable number of runs in at least four games of this series and then the only question is whether or not their offense can put up more runs.

Since the spotlight is on, I’m going to go with Cody Ross. So far this postseason, he is 11-34 (.324/.395/.794 slash line) but more importantly, he has 4 of San Francisco’s 6 home runs so far this October. Home runs are very valuable in the postseason because it is instant offense and doesn’t require any more than one swing of the bat to put runs on the board. Someone needs to provide a dangerous bat in the lineup for the Giants and so far it’s been Ross.

For the Rangers, they have two x-factors and they are the two biggest names on the team. First of all is Josh Hamilton. He was pretty much invisible in the DS against the Rays and in my mind it was logical to conclude that if he batted similarly against the Yankees, the Rangers had no chance of making it this far. All he did in the LCS was go 7-20 (.350/.536/1.000 slash line) with 4 home runs, 7 RBI, and 8 walks. When he swings the bat, it doesn’t even look like he hits the ball well and the next thing you know, fans are fighting over the souvenir. This lineup is better when he is hitting well and if he hits wells against the Giants, they are in trouble.

The other x-factor for the Rangers is the presence that looms over everything: Cliff Lee. So far this postseason, his numbers have been amazing. In three starts (all wins), he has pitched 24 innings, allowed 2 runs on 13 hits, walked 1 and struck out 34. In his postseason career, he is 7-0 with an ERA of 1.26 (in 64.1 innings) and he’s struck out 64 while walking only 7 and allowing just one home run. In last year’s World Series against a potent Yankees lineup, he was 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA which is the highest ERA he’s ever had in a single postseason series.

Will he pitch three times on short rest? My guess is no. He is, however, lined up to pitch game 1 in San Francisco and then potentially game 5 back in Texas. The good news for Rangers fans is if he does that, he’ll be on three day’s rest for either a start or a relief appearance in game 7 and while the Giants players and coaches will never say that scares them, they can’t be looking forward to facing him that many times. It’s possible that Bochy manages more aggressively in the first few games to try and minimize Lee’s impact similar to last year when Lee pitched game 5 already down 3-1 to the Yankees.

I know that managers don’t like to ever concede games, especially when there are only 7 and it’s the World Series but given the run that Lee is on, I almost wonder if the wisest course of action would be to start someone other than Lincecum against him, thus maximizing the chances that you win the games that Lee is not starting. Probably not the best move for clubhouse morale but interesting food for thought.

THE VERDICT

As far as I can tell, the Rangers have the edge in just about every way except home field advantage. Their offense is more potent, their defense is comparable as is their pitching staff. To me, they have a bigger chip on their shoulder and have more momentum coming into this series. But instead of relying on such vague subjective bits and pieces, I’m going to through this one out there.

In the wildcard era (1995 onward), there has only been one World Series matching teams whose regular season records were within 3 games of each other (the Giants were 92-70 while the Rangers were 90-72). In that series, the Diamondbacks (92-70) beat the Yankees (95-67) in seven games. In fact, in the 15 World Series since the advent of the wildcard, the team with fewer regular season wins has won 9 times and lost just 6.

There you have it. After 47 years of frustration, the Texas Rangers will win the World Series.

RANGERS 4, GIANTS 2