NLCS Preview

I am happy to report that while the Rays and Twins let me down in the American League, both the Giants and Phillies made my predictions come true in the National League. In fact, the only thing that kept me from nailing this prediction right on the head is that I thought the Reds would scratch out one game and both the Phillies and Giants would win their series by 3-1 margins. Well, we’ll call that a glancing blow.

This series is going to be all about pitching and for people who love a good 1-0 game, this is going to be a dream come true. The NLCS will match up quite possibly two of the hottest rotations entering the playoffs that baseball has seen in a very long time and runs will be at such a premium that in my opinion, the advantage has to slide in favor of the more veteran lineup that might be able to use their experience to scratch out an extra run or two here and there.

BY THE NUMBERS

Both of their offenses were abysmal in the division series with the Giants posting a slash line of .212/.288/.295 while the Phillies managed a line of .212/.301/.273. At first glance, to think that these two teams went a combined 6-1 is almost hard to believe until you look at what their pitchers were able to do:

Giants – .175/.214/.263
Phillies – .124/.160/.213

Offensively, neither team has any single player that is really trending upward except for the rookie sensation Buster Posey, the Giants catcher who did his best Joe Mauer impression this year with a .305/.357/.505 slash line, 18 home runs, and 67 RBI in 108 games. He continued his brilliant year by going 6-16 in the division series against the Braves but was held with just one double and without an RBI.

Other than Posey, the highest batting average for a player that played every game in their respective series was Cody Ross for the Giants (4-14, .286) and Chase Utley for the Phillies (3-11, .273). These offenses are hardly performing at their peak efficiency and again, I have to say that I believe that favors that team that underachieved more relative to the regular season and that would be the Phillies.

Runs will again be at a premium because the pitching in both division series by these two teams was nothing short of superb. The Giants allowed 9 runs in 4 games and had a team ERA of 1.66 (due to two unearned runs). Continuing their September trend, their starters were ridiculous, pitching 29.0 innings and allowing just 3 earned runs (0.93 ERA) while allowing 17 hits with a K:BB ratio of 36:5. In their four games, their starters had the following Game Scores:

Lincecum - 96
Cain – 62
Sanchez – 80
Bumgarner – 56

In short, the Yankees and Rangers would be truly ecstatic to get a GS of 56 from their number four starters.

On the Phillies side of things, believe it or not, the pitching was even better. In three games only one of their pitchers allowed a run and their bullpen only had to throw 4.0 innings and those were all in game 2 as Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels gave the bullpen two nights off in this series. Oswalt did struggle slightly but still only gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and I’m not sure that I really have to expound upon the performances of Halladay or Hamels. The “H2O” trio put forth the following GS’s:

Halladay – 94
Oswalt – 47
Hamels – 86

While Oswalt’s game could hardly be called a gem, he stilled pitched well enough to give the Phillies a chance to win and he picked a day when the Phillies put 7 runs on the board due to various Reds’ miscues.

The team that plays the game more fundamentally sound and minimizes their own mistakes while maximizing on the mistakes of their opponents will play in the World Series.

X-FACTOR

These teams played so evenly that single players don’t really stand out as being x-factors in this series. The key to the series for the Giants is to score runs which they haven’t been terribly good at this year and now they have to go against quite possibly the hottest trio of starting pitchers in the game right now. However, you could also say that their success will largely hinge on whether or not their own brilliant rotation foursome (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Bumgarner) will be able to contain the Phillies trio in the middle of the lineup (Werth, Utley, Howard).

The one area where these teams performed quite differently in the division series was in how well their bullpens pitched. For the Giants, their relievers pitched 9.0 innings, giving up 4 earned runs on 7 hits while striking out 10 and walking 2. This includes blowing a 4-1 lead that Matt Cain handed the bullpen in game 2 and most disturbingly, it was Brian Wilson who finally gave up the lead, the one pitcher in that bullpen that they need to be able to rely on.

On the flip side of the coin, the Phillies’ bullpen didn’t pitch very much (4.0 innings) but when they did, they were good. Ryan Madson allowed one hit and Brad Lidge and Chad Durbin each walked a batter and those were the only three baserunners allowed by the Phillies’ pen. This bullpen isn’t as formidable as it has been in years past but they pitched well during the regular season and very well in the division series and they will be the Phillies key to victory.

THE VERDICT

Offensively, the Phillies have a slight advantage due to their veteran lineup and the potential they have if they really get the bats rolling. The Giants lineup can put a hurting on you but nothing like what the Phillies can do.

To say that either team has an advantage in starting pitching is the definition of splitting hairs but since the Phillies rotation has three potential aces while the Giants have one ace and three potential number two or number three starters, I have to give a sliver of an advantage to the Phillies.

So far this postseason in the bullpen, the Phillies have pitched well and the Giants have not. Advantage: Phillies.

The Phillies were 2-0 at home and 1-0 on the road while the Giants were 2-0 on the road and 1-1 at home. Advantage: ?.

The tentative pitching match-ups that have been announced will be as follows (with the home team in parentheses):

Game 1 (PHI): Lincecum vs. Halladay
Game 2 (PHI): Sanchez vs. Hamels
Game 3 (SF): Oswalt vs. Cain

Picking which team has an advantage in those match-ups seems a little ludicrous but oh well… unfortunately for the Giants, I would actually give the Phillies a slight edge in all three of those games and the reason leads right into my final point.

Intangibles. In 2008, the Giants were 72-90, finishing 4th in the NL West. The Phillies were 92-70, winning the NL East. The Phillies then beat the Brewers (3-1), the Dodgers (4-1), and the Rays (4-1) in impressive fashion to win the World Series.

In 2009, the Giants were 88-74 (a drastic improvement) but still finished in third, seven games behind the Dodgers. The Phillies were 93-69, again winning the NL East. In the playoffs, they defeated the Rockies (3-1) and the Dodgers (4-1) to win the NL pennant before losing to the Yankees juggernaut in 6 games.

The Phillies have been here and done that and despite the fact that Halladay and Oswalt weren’t around for those two playoff runs, Halladay is a seasoned veteran and obviously has no problem with the bright lights of October while Oswalt has been here before with the Astros and pitched very well in his playoff career. All we know about the Giants is what they did against the Braves. This is a young team that has been down for a few years so we really don’t know how they’ll react going up against the two-time defending NL champions. Crunch all the numbers and what you’ll get is an entertaining series and a Phillies victory.

PHILLIES 4, GIANTS 2