Much has been made of the pitching rotation that General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has assembled in Philadelphia. Between Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels, they came into this season with a career record of 481-275 with an ERA of 3.42, a WHIP of 1.20, and 141.7 combined Wins Above Replacement (WAR). They have won 3 Cy Young awards (Lee in ’08 and Halladay in ’03 and ’10) and have been named to a combined 13 All-Star games.
Perhaps more importantly than all of that, these four have combined for a record of 20-8 with a 2.98 ERA in the playoffs. They have pitched a total of 240.0 innings and have allowed just 196 hits with a K/BB ratio of 220:52.
In other words, these guys are good. Where will they rank among the all-time greatest pitching rotations? Obviously this is a question that cannot be answered until October or November but there’s no reason we can’t look ahead at the task that they have in front of them.
Currently, these four have combined for 5.0 WAR with Halladay leading the way with 2.1. Given the accuracy of the WAR values (only accurate to the tenth of a win) and the fact that these numbers don’t necessarily project to over a full season, these figures need to be taken with a grain of salt.
If they did project well, this is where they would end up.
Roy Halladay – 10.6
Cole Hamels – 7.1
Cliff Lee – 4.6
Roy Oswalt – 3.0
Roy Oswalt has only pitched 27.0 innings thus far, compared with at least 40.2 for any of the other three pitchers. Due to the tornados ravaging the area that he grew up in, he has been away from the team and hasn’t pitched as often as he would have. However, once he sets his affairs in order and rejoins the team, it wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility for all four of these pitchers to end up with a WAR value greater than 4.0. As a rule of thumb, according to baseball-reference.com (where I get these WAR values) this is a good way to judge how good WAR values are.
0-2 – Bench Player
2-5 – Starter
5-8 – All-Star
8+ - MVP
According to that metric, their rotation is made up of an MVP caliber player (or a Cy Young caliber pitcher), an All-Star, a borderline All-Star, and a decent starting pitcher.
We’ve been hearing about this rotation ever since Cliff Lee shocked everyone and signed with them instead of the Rangers or Yankees but what does this mean historically? How many other teams have ever had a combination of starters this good? To answer this question, first I need to set a few criteria. First of all, I only looked at pitchers who started at least 60% of their games and qualified for the ERA title. Given that this means they would have pitched at least as many innings as team games played (162 for most years) and that at least 3/5 of their appearances would have had to be starts, this effectively eliminates relievers from this conversation. Secondly, I only looked at pitchers who put forth better than 4.0 WAR. When I got the results from this search for the all-time best rotations, I didn’t want (for instance) the 2001 Diamondbacks cluttering my data. They did have one of the best 1-2 punches ever in Randy Johnson (8.4 WAR) and Curt Schilling (7.3). However, after that, they dropped down to Brian Anderson (-0.8 WAR), the only other pitcher who qualified under these criteria.
So, to ask the question again, how many rotations had this many good pitchers?
Not too many. Since 1901, 81 teams have had three pitchers with better than 4.0 WAR. Of those, only 5 had four pitchers who crossed that threshold. Of the 76 teams with three pitchers matching these criteria, the 1909 Chicago Cubs were the best, when Mordecai Brown (8.7), Orval Overall (7.1), and Ed Reulbach (5.5) combined for 21.3 WAR. Only four other rotations in the past 110 years have crossed the 20.0 WAR barrier:
1956 Cleveland Indians (21.2)
Early Wynn (8.2)
Herb Score (7.6)
Bob Lemon (5.4)
1969 Chicago Cubs (21.1)
Bill Hands (8.8)
Fergie Jenkins (7.6)
Ken Holtzman (4.7)
1904 New York Giants (20.8)
Joe Mcginnity (10.2)
Christy Mathewson (6.1)
Dummy Taylor (4.5)
1915 St. Louis Terriers (20.3)
Dave Davenport (9.0)
Eddie Plank (6.7)
Doc Crandall (4.6)
These are the five rotations that have featured four different starters with better than 4.0 WAR.
1912 Boston Red Sox (24.1)
Smoky Joe Wood (9.6)
Buck O’Brien (5.3)
Ray Collins (5.1)
Hugh Bedient (4.1)
1991 Atlanta Braves (20.9)
Tom Glavine (7.4)
John Smoltz (4.7)
Steve Avery (4.5)
Charlie Liebrandt (4.3)
1997 Atlanta Braves (20.9)
Greg Maddux (7.3)
Tom Glavine (5.0)
John Smoltz (4.5)
Denny Neagle (4.1)
1913 New York Giants (20.9)
Christy Mathewson (6.8)
Rube Marquard (5.1)
Jeff Tesreau (5.0)
Al Demaree (4.0)
1967 Cincinnati Reds (20.7)
Gary Nolan (6.8)
Mel Queen (4.9)
Jim Maloney (4.7)
Milt Pappas (4.3)
Clearly, if Oswalt were to increase his performance and everyone else were to maintain their current paces, this rotation can easily go down as one of the best in baseball history.
To go a little bit further, let’s raise the WAR threshold a bit. The cutoff that b-r.com uses between a starter and an All-Star is 5.0 WAR so let’s go ahead and throw that number in. How many rotations have had three starters who have all produced more than 5.0 WAR?
Only 11 but these must come with a caveat. 6 of these 11 occurred between 1907 and 1913. Since 1920 (the widely accepted beginning of the live ball era) only 5 rotations have had three All-Star caliber starting pitchers. The best of those five live ball rotations was the 1956 Cleveland Indians (see above). However, there is another metric that I have to bring in here. ERA+ takes into account many things, including the opponents and the ballpark and how easy or difficult it is to pitch in that particular park in that particular year. Again, taking these ERA+ values and simply averaging them is problematic but it gives a snapshot of how good these rotations were when their numbers are normalized for the era in which they played. Of these 11 rotations, the best in terms of average ERA+ was the 2005 Houston Astros, featuring Roy Oswalt (2.94 ERA, 5.3 WAR, and 144 ERA+), Andy Pettitte (2.39, 5.8, and 177), and best of all, Roger Clemens (1.87, 7.2, and 226). This again illustrates the point that while the raw pitching numbers looked better way back when, it’s sometimes more impressive what the best pitchers are able to go in an era that heavily favors the hitters.
To wrap this all up, does the Phillies rotation have a chance to join these groups? Frankly, yes they do. All of them have had seasons of better than 4.0 WAR (Halladay 7, Oswalt 5, Hamels 3, and Lee 2) and their career highs, respectively, are 7.5, 6.2, 4.8, and 7.3.
It will be interesting to see where they end up after another five months of pitching…
Showing posts with label Philadelphia Phillies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Philadelphia Phillies. Show all posts
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Thursday, October 14, 2010
NLCS Preview
I am happy to report that while the Rays and Twins let me down in the American League, both the Giants and Phillies made my predictions come true in the National League. In fact, the only thing that kept me from nailing this prediction right on the head is that I thought the Reds would scratch out one game and both the Phillies and Giants would win their series by 3-1 margins. Well, we’ll call that a glancing blow.
This series is going to be all about pitching and for people who love a good 1-0 game, this is going to be a dream come true. The NLCS will match up quite possibly two of the hottest rotations entering the playoffs that baseball has seen in a very long time and runs will be at such a premium that in my opinion, the advantage has to slide in favor of the more veteran lineup that might be able to use their experience to scratch out an extra run or two here and there.
BY THE NUMBERS
Both of their offenses were abysmal in the division series with the Giants posting a slash line of .212/.288/.295 while the Phillies managed a line of .212/.301/.273. At first glance, to think that these two teams went a combined 6-1 is almost hard to believe until you look at what their pitchers were able to do:
Giants – .175/.214/.263
Phillies – .124/.160/.213
Offensively, neither team has any single player that is really trending upward except for the rookie sensation Buster Posey, the Giants catcher who did his best Joe Mauer impression this year with a .305/.357/.505 slash line, 18 home runs, and 67 RBI in 108 games. He continued his brilliant year by going 6-16 in the division series against the Braves but was held with just one double and without an RBI.
Other than Posey, the highest batting average for a player that played every game in their respective series was Cody Ross for the Giants (4-14, .286) and Chase Utley for the Phillies (3-11, .273). These offenses are hardly performing at their peak efficiency and again, I have to say that I believe that favors that team that underachieved more relative to the regular season and that would be the Phillies.
Runs will again be at a premium because the pitching in both division series by these two teams was nothing short of superb. The Giants allowed 9 runs in 4 games and had a team ERA of 1.66 (due to two unearned runs). Continuing their September trend, their starters were ridiculous, pitching 29.0 innings and allowing just 3 earned runs (0.93 ERA) while allowing 17 hits with a K:BB ratio of 36:5. In their four games, their starters had the following Game Scores:
Lincecum - 96
Cain – 62
Sanchez – 80
Bumgarner – 56
In short, the Yankees and Rangers would be truly ecstatic to get a GS of 56 from their number four starters.
On the Phillies side of things, believe it or not, the pitching was even better. In three games only one of their pitchers allowed a run and their bullpen only had to throw 4.0 innings and those were all in game 2 as Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels gave the bullpen two nights off in this series. Oswalt did struggle slightly but still only gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and I’m not sure that I really have to expound upon the performances of Halladay or Hamels. The “H2O” trio put forth the following GS’s:
Halladay – 94
Oswalt – 47
Hamels – 86
While Oswalt’s game could hardly be called a gem, he stilled pitched well enough to give the Phillies a chance to win and he picked a day when the Phillies put 7 runs on the board due to various Reds’ miscues.
The team that plays the game more fundamentally sound and minimizes their own mistakes while maximizing on the mistakes of their opponents will play in the World Series.
X-FACTOR
These teams played so evenly that single players don’t really stand out as being x-factors in this series. The key to the series for the Giants is to score runs which they haven’t been terribly good at this year and now they have to go against quite possibly the hottest trio of starting pitchers in the game right now. However, you could also say that their success will largely hinge on whether or not their own brilliant rotation foursome (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Bumgarner) will be able to contain the Phillies trio in the middle of the lineup (Werth, Utley, Howard).
The one area where these teams performed quite differently in the division series was in how well their bullpens pitched. For the Giants, their relievers pitched 9.0 innings, giving up 4 earned runs on 7 hits while striking out 10 and walking 2. This includes blowing a 4-1 lead that Matt Cain handed the bullpen in game 2 and most disturbingly, it was Brian Wilson who finally gave up the lead, the one pitcher in that bullpen that they need to be able to rely on.
On the flip side of the coin, the Phillies’ bullpen didn’t pitch very much (4.0 innings) but when they did, they were good. Ryan Madson allowed one hit and Brad Lidge and Chad Durbin each walked a batter and those were the only three baserunners allowed by the Phillies’ pen. This bullpen isn’t as formidable as it has been in years past but they pitched well during the regular season and very well in the division series and they will be the Phillies key to victory.
THE VERDICT
Offensively, the Phillies have a slight advantage due to their veteran lineup and the potential they have if they really get the bats rolling. The Giants lineup can put a hurting on you but nothing like what the Phillies can do.
To say that either team has an advantage in starting pitching is the definition of splitting hairs but since the Phillies rotation has three potential aces while the Giants have one ace and three potential number two or number three starters, I have to give a sliver of an advantage to the Phillies.
So far this postseason in the bullpen, the Phillies have pitched well and the Giants have not. Advantage: Phillies.
The Phillies were 2-0 at home and 1-0 on the road while the Giants were 2-0 on the road and 1-1 at home. Advantage: ?.
The tentative pitching match-ups that have been announced will be as follows (with the home team in parentheses):
Game 1 (PHI): Lincecum vs. Halladay
Game 2 (PHI): Sanchez vs. Hamels
Game 3 (SF): Oswalt vs. Cain
Picking which team has an advantage in those match-ups seems a little ludicrous but oh well… unfortunately for the Giants, I would actually give the Phillies a slight edge in all three of those games and the reason leads right into my final point.
Intangibles. In 2008, the Giants were 72-90, finishing 4th in the NL West. The Phillies were 92-70, winning the NL East. The Phillies then beat the Brewers (3-1), the Dodgers (4-1), and the Rays (4-1) in impressive fashion to win the World Series.
In 2009, the Giants were 88-74 (a drastic improvement) but still finished in third, seven games behind the Dodgers. The Phillies were 93-69, again winning the NL East. In the playoffs, they defeated the Rockies (3-1) and the Dodgers (4-1) to win the NL pennant before losing to the Yankees juggernaut in 6 games.
The Phillies have been here and done that and despite the fact that Halladay and Oswalt weren’t around for those two playoff runs, Halladay is a seasoned veteran and obviously has no problem with the bright lights of October while Oswalt has been here before with the Astros and pitched very well in his playoff career. All we know about the Giants is what they did against the Braves. This is a young team that has been down for a few years so we really don’t know how they’ll react going up against the two-time defending NL champions. Crunch all the numbers and what you’ll get is an entertaining series and a Phillies victory.
PHILLIES 4, GIANTS 2
This series is going to be all about pitching and for people who love a good 1-0 game, this is going to be a dream come true. The NLCS will match up quite possibly two of the hottest rotations entering the playoffs that baseball has seen in a very long time and runs will be at such a premium that in my opinion, the advantage has to slide in favor of the more veteran lineup that might be able to use their experience to scratch out an extra run or two here and there.
BY THE NUMBERS
Both of their offenses were abysmal in the division series with the Giants posting a slash line of .212/.288/.295 while the Phillies managed a line of .212/.301/.273. At first glance, to think that these two teams went a combined 6-1 is almost hard to believe until you look at what their pitchers were able to do:
Giants – .175/.214/.263
Phillies – .124/.160/.213
Offensively, neither team has any single player that is really trending upward except for the rookie sensation Buster Posey, the Giants catcher who did his best Joe Mauer impression this year with a .305/.357/.505 slash line, 18 home runs, and 67 RBI in 108 games. He continued his brilliant year by going 6-16 in the division series against the Braves but was held with just one double and without an RBI.
Other than Posey, the highest batting average for a player that played every game in their respective series was Cody Ross for the Giants (4-14, .286) and Chase Utley for the Phillies (3-11, .273). These offenses are hardly performing at their peak efficiency and again, I have to say that I believe that favors that team that underachieved more relative to the regular season and that would be the Phillies.
Runs will again be at a premium because the pitching in both division series by these two teams was nothing short of superb. The Giants allowed 9 runs in 4 games and had a team ERA of 1.66 (due to two unearned runs). Continuing their September trend, their starters were ridiculous, pitching 29.0 innings and allowing just 3 earned runs (0.93 ERA) while allowing 17 hits with a K:BB ratio of 36:5. In their four games, their starters had the following Game Scores:
Lincecum - 96
Cain – 62
Sanchez – 80
Bumgarner – 56
In short, the Yankees and Rangers would be truly ecstatic to get a GS of 56 from their number four starters.
On the Phillies side of things, believe it or not, the pitching was even better. In three games only one of their pitchers allowed a run and their bullpen only had to throw 4.0 innings and those were all in game 2 as Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels gave the bullpen two nights off in this series. Oswalt did struggle slightly but still only gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and I’m not sure that I really have to expound upon the performances of Halladay or Hamels. The “H2O” trio put forth the following GS’s:
Halladay – 94
Oswalt – 47
Hamels – 86
While Oswalt’s game could hardly be called a gem, he stilled pitched well enough to give the Phillies a chance to win and he picked a day when the Phillies put 7 runs on the board due to various Reds’ miscues.
The team that plays the game more fundamentally sound and minimizes their own mistakes while maximizing on the mistakes of their opponents will play in the World Series.
X-FACTOR
These teams played so evenly that single players don’t really stand out as being x-factors in this series. The key to the series for the Giants is to score runs which they haven’t been terribly good at this year and now they have to go against quite possibly the hottest trio of starting pitchers in the game right now. However, you could also say that their success will largely hinge on whether or not their own brilliant rotation foursome (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Bumgarner) will be able to contain the Phillies trio in the middle of the lineup (Werth, Utley, Howard).
The one area where these teams performed quite differently in the division series was in how well their bullpens pitched. For the Giants, their relievers pitched 9.0 innings, giving up 4 earned runs on 7 hits while striking out 10 and walking 2. This includes blowing a 4-1 lead that Matt Cain handed the bullpen in game 2 and most disturbingly, it was Brian Wilson who finally gave up the lead, the one pitcher in that bullpen that they need to be able to rely on.
On the flip side of the coin, the Phillies’ bullpen didn’t pitch very much (4.0 innings) but when they did, they were good. Ryan Madson allowed one hit and Brad Lidge and Chad Durbin each walked a batter and those were the only three baserunners allowed by the Phillies’ pen. This bullpen isn’t as formidable as it has been in years past but they pitched well during the regular season and very well in the division series and they will be the Phillies key to victory.
THE VERDICT
Offensively, the Phillies have a slight advantage due to their veteran lineup and the potential they have if they really get the bats rolling. The Giants lineup can put a hurting on you but nothing like what the Phillies can do.
To say that either team has an advantage in starting pitching is the definition of splitting hairs but since the Phillies rotation has three potential aces while the Giants have one ace and three potential number two or number three starters, I have to give a sliver of an advantage to the Phillies.
So far this postseason in the bullpen, the Phillies have pitched well and the Giants have not. Advantage: Phillies.
The Phillies were 2-0 at home and 1-0 on the road while the Giants were 2-0 on the road and 1-1 at home. Advantage: ?.
The tentative pitching match-ups that have been announced will be as follows (with the home team in parentheses):
Game 1 (PHI): Lincecum vs. Halladay
Game 2 (PHI): Sanchez vs. Hamels
Game 3 (SF): Oswalt vs. Cain
Picking which team has an advantage in those match-ups seems a little ludicrous but oh well… unfortunately for the Giants, I would actually give the Phillies a slight edge in all three of those games and the reason leads right into my final point.
Intangibles. In 2008, the Giants were 72-90, finishing 4th in the NL West. The Phillies were 92-70, winning the NL East. The Phillies then beat the Brewers (3-1), the Dodgers (4-1), and the Rays (4-1) in impressive fashion to win the World Series.
In 2009, the Giants were 88-74 (a drastic improvement) but still finished in third, seven games behind the Dodgers. The Phillies were 93-69, again winning the NL East. In the playoffs, they defeated the Rockies (3-1) and the Dodgers (4-1) to win the NL pennant before losing to the Yankees juggernaut in 6 games.
The Phillies have been here and done that and despite the fact that Halladay and Oswalt weren’t around for those two playoff runs, Halladay is a seasoned veteran and obviously has no problem with the bright lights of October while Oswalt has been here before with the Astros and pitched very well in his playoff career. All we know about the Giants is what they did against the Braves. This is a young team that has been down for a few years so we really don’t know how they’ll react going up against the two-time defending NL champions. Crunch all the numbers and what you’ll get is an entertaining series and a Phillies victory.
PHILLIES 4, GIANTS 2
Monday, October 4, 2010
MLB Playoff Preview 2010
The leaves are turning and the calendar just rolled from September to October and that means playoff baseball. For the seventh consecutive year, at least one playoff spot was decided on the last day of the regular season but unlike the past couple years, we did not need to go to game #163 to get our 8 team playoff field. So who will win? Will the Yankees repeat? Will the H2O big three carry Philadelphia to their third straight NL crown and second World Series crown in three years?
Let’s find out!
NL DIVISION SERIES
ATLANTA BRAVES VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
This series features a pair of teams will an extreme dichotomy between their performance at home and on the road and the way the playoffs are set up, that always favors the team given home field advantage in the round (in this case, the Giants).
While the Giants just had a six game difference between their home and road records (49-32 vs. 43-38), the Braves had the largest difference of any playoff team: an incredible 21 games.
The Braves were just 35-46 with a decent .711 OPS (102 OPS+) and a 3.96 ERA on the road this year. However, at home, they were 56-25 (the best home record of any team in the playoffs this year) with a 106 OPS+ and an ERA of 3.20.
WHO TO WATCH
For the Braves offensively, this list is very short. Their team leader in OPS was Jason Heyward with a mark of .849. A very good mark (especially given that he is a rookie) but nothing that will instill fear in opposing pitchers. Only one regular hit 20 home runs (Brian McCann with 21) and only two regulars hit above .300 (Omar Infante at .321 and Martin Prado at .307) during the regular season.
In their rotation, they have three quality starters but their success will begin and end with Tim Hudson. The right-hander had one of the best seasons of his career, going 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Behind him, Derek Lower was his usual dependable self (16-12, 4.00, 193.2 IP) and Tommy Hanson was a pleasant surprise (10-11, 3.33, 1.174 WHIP). Given what the Giants have done this year on the mound, the Braves’ starters will be key to their success.
The Giants offensively this year weren’t all that bad (just in September) but they were still far from the strongest lineup in this playoff field. Aubrey Huff will have to carry much of the load (.891 OPS, 26 HR) and the Giants are really hoping that Kung Fu Panda (Pablo Sandoval) will hit better in October than he did from April to September (.732 OPS, 13 HR).
Pitching is where the Giants have excelled for a long time. In September, the team had an ERA of 1.91, a WHIP of .945, and allowed opponents an OPS of just .543. They have a “Big Three” that can arguably rival that of the Phillies with Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43), Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14), and Jonathon Sanchez (13-9, 3.07). The win-loss records aren’t nearly as good because of the relative strength of their offenses. In the bullpen, Brian Wilson has saved 48 games and boasts a 1.81 ERA this season in 74.2 innings.
THE VERDICT
The Giants are rolling and the Braves haven’t had the win-or-die mentality for quite some time, squandering a lead in the NL East to the Phillies. Look for the Braves to win one but no more than that.
GIANTS 3-1
CINCINNATI REDS VS. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
The Reds have played well all year long but there is no doubt that they took advantage of a Cardinals collapse. A while back it looked like this race might go down to the wire but that never materialized. The Reds are here because they spent all season beating up on lefties and bad teams. Their .600 winning percentage against left-handed starters was second best amongst playoff teams (to the Rays) and they also had the second best record against teams that were under .500 (.651).
Unfortunately, the flip side of that coin is one they may not want to hear about. Their .542 winning percentage against righties and .377 against winning teams were by far the lowest of any playoff teams; an ominous sign since they have to play the team that had the best record in baseball (the 97-65 Phillies) who have two of the best right-handed starters in the game right now (Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt).
For the Phillies, they have nothing to win and everything to lose. The last time the Reds were in the playoffs was in 1995 while the Phillies are the two-time defending NL champions. For the Phillies this year, attention has gone from the Big Three (Howard, Utley, and Rollins) to the next Big Three (Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels) but one could easily argue that the former will be more important than the latter.
WHO TO WATCH
The Reds had four regulars hit 20 or more home runs and only one had an OPS+ under 100 (below league average) but their success will largely depend on either Joey Votto or how well everyone else does if the Phillies can neutralize him. The presumptive MVP had a slash line of .324/.424/.600 with 37 home runs and 113 RBI this year and he is the straw in the Reds’ drink. The question is whether or not he can get the help he needs from the rest of the line-up.
The rotation is a huge question mark. Johnny Cueto has the ability to shut down any offense on any given night but after that, it’s Bronson Arroyo and a couple question marks. Mike Leake has come back to earth after his torrent start to his rookie campaign. Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood have thrown between 102.2 and 111.2 innings this year so a rotation by committee is entirely possible.
For the Phillies, their offensive output is nowhere near what they have grown accustomed to the past few years because they’ve been decimated by injuries. Howard, Utley, and Rollins all missed time this year and how well they play will largely determine how far they are able to go. The X-factor in this line-up is Jayson Werth, who led the team with a .921 OPS and finished second on the team with 27 home runs. Jimmy Rollins, becoming more of a Mr. Intangible by the day, batted very poorly in just 88 games this year (.243/.320/.374 with 8 home runs and 41 RBI) and he will need to step up for the Phillies to make it back to the World Series.
At last, we have reached the current Big Three: Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44, 9 complete games), Roy Oswalt (7-1, 1.74, 0.895 WHIP since being traded), and Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06, 1.179 WHIP). Those three give Charlie Manuel an amazing amount of flexibility and it also gives him a couple other starters in Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton that he may or may not need to actually start a game, a problem that seven other managers would love to have right now.
THE VERDICT
The Reds haven’t been to the playoffs in 15 years and the Phillies have played 29 postseason games in the past two years.
PHILLIES 3-1
TEXAS RANGERS VS. TAMPA BAY RAYS
Again, we have a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs in over ten years playing a team that has went to the World Series just two years ago with basically the same team they have now. The Rays have a .643 winning percentage against lefties, which could spell disaster for the Rangers and ace Cliff Lee. This match-up also puts the closest home/away records together when the Rangers host the Rays. The Rangers were 51-30 at home this year but the Rays had the best road records amongst playoff teams (by four games) at 47-34.
Another point of concern for the Rangers is that they, like the Reds, built their record against the Mariners while the Rays had to contend with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees. The Rays .588 winning percentage against above .500 teams was tied for the best amongst playoff teams with the Phillies but while the Phillies only played 68 games against winning teams, the Rays played an astounding 97 such games (57-40). Meanwhile, the Rangers were just 39-42 against teams with a winning record.
WHO TO WATCH
Is Josh Hamilton healthy? His .359 batting average is the highest in team history and despite missing most of September with an injury, he still hit 32 home runs and drove in 100 runs. If he is at or close to 100%, he can potentially carry this line-up but if the injury is still nagging him, the Rangers might play more like the team that was just a little above average in September (15-12).
Other than Hamilton, the Rangers’ line-up isn’t terribly impressive, especially since Vladimir Guerrero hasn’t played nearly as well in the second half as he did before the All-Star break (.919 OPS in the first half vs. .748 in the second half).
On the pitching side of things, Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, and Tommy Hunter have all been solid and the wildcard in the rotation looks like it’s going to be Cliff Lee. Since being traded to Texas, Lee is just 4-6 with an ERA of 3.98. However, for the season, Lee still leads the AL in complete games (7), WHIP (1.003), and strikeout to walk ratio (10.28).
For the Rays, a lot of their success may be determined by how well Carlos Pena plays. He leads the team with 28 home runs but his slash line is poor to say the least at .196/.325/.407. Evan Longoria is developing into one of the best young players in the league (especially when considering his defense) and this year his slash line (.294/.372/.507) is nothing but solid. An X-factor for them could end up being the play of Carl Crawford and BJ Upton given that runs will be at a premium in October: they combined to steal 89 bases and got caught just 19 times.
The rotation is led by David Price who has had a Cy Young caliber season. Behind him, the rotation is a little weaker than it has been in recent years. Matt Garza always has the ability to shut down an opponent (evidenced by his no-hitter against Detroit earlier this year) and James Shields has pitched better than his 5.18 ERA would suggest. Behind those three, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis have pitched well (for the bottom of the rotation) but not as well as they might need in October. The biggest addition that they made in the offseason was closer Rafael Soriano who has been nothing short of brilliant this year with an ERA of 1.73 and 45 saves.
THE VERDICT
The Rangers offense will test the back end of the Rays rotation and that might make it interesting. David Price will offset Cliff Lee but the Rangers have a deeper rotation than the Rays but in the end, the Rays are too good to be upset in the first round.
RAYS 3-2
NEW YORK YANKEES VS. MINNESOTA TWINS
On paper, this might just be the best series of the first round and whoever wins this series might be fodder for their opponent in the ALCS. Both teams played well against righties, lefties, winning teams, losing teams, and in one run games. Both teams played very well at home (53-28 for the Twins and 52-29 for the Yankees) and struggled a bit on the road (41-40 for the Twins and 43-38 for the Yankees).
Looking at the entire team statistics, even the home/road splits, it looks very much like this series could be one where all five games are won by the home team.
WHO TO WATCH
The Yankees are the defending World Series champions and managed to win 95 games this year but several of the regulars didn’t play nearly as well as they did a year ago. Despite hitting 30+ home runs this year, Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506) and Mark Teixeira (.256/.365/.481) haven’t been nearly as dangerous as they have in years past. Derek Jeter was the only Yankees regular with an OPS+ below average (90 due to a .270/.340/.370 slash line) this year.
The strongest points in their line-up this year have been Nick Swisher (who hit just .162 last postseason) and Robinson Cano (who hit .193 last year in the playoffs).
So who’s going to show up in this line-up? The answer to that question will largely determine whether or not the Yankees have a chance to repeat as champions.
In their rotation, CC Sabathia has been very good, Phil Hughes has been good, AJ Burnett has been very hit and miss, Javier Vazquez seems to be able to pitch well anywhere but in New York, and Andy Pettitte is missed a lot of time this year due to injury. At the back end of the bullpen, Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera. However, who pitches the first 8 innings has got to be a big concern for Joe Girardi.
On the Twins’ side of things, they have been nothing short of amazing since the loss of Justin Morneau for an indefinite period of time since he went down with a concussion on July 7th. One of the biggest reasons for their continued good play has been the remarkable play of Jim Thome. The just-turned-40-year-old has a slash line of .283/.412/.627 with 25 home runs in just 276 at-bats and perhaps playing so little will keep him fresh for the postseason. Along with Thome, Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469), Delmon Young (.826 OPS with 21 home runs), and Jason Kubel (21 home runs) make this a deep line-up.
Their rotation throws strikes and they pitch to contact but they also have a top of the rotation starter in Francisco Liriano that can stop a losing streak. Behind him, Carl Pavano is having a very good season but other than that, nothing about this pitching staff jumps out as being better than solid. Will that be good enough, given the Yankees relative offensive woes compared to a year ago?
THE VERDICT
The Yankees haven’t been as good this year as they were last year which is interesting to say because they went 95-67, led the league in runs, finished second in OPS+, and finished 10th in ERA+. Frankly, they just don’t scare me going into the playoffs like they did last year. A year ago, they had the edge of not having won a World Series since 2000 and there was all sorts of pressure to win. This year, there isn’t that same sense of urgency and I have a feeling the Twins are the perfect no-nonsense kind of team to take advantage.
TWINS 3-2
And that does it for the first round of the playoffs. The Twins will play the Rays in the ALCS and the Phillies will match up against the Giants in the NLCS. Look for a preview of those series between the first round and the LCS round of the playoffs.
Game on!
Let’s find out!
NL DIVISION SERIES
ATLANTA BRAVES VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
This series features a pair of teams will an extreme dichotomy between their performance at home and on the road and the way the playoffs are set up, that always favors the team given home field advantage in the round (in this case, the Giants).
While the Giants just had a six game difference between their home and road records (49-32 vs. 43-38), the Braves had the largest difference of any playoff team: an incredible 21 games.
The Braves were just 35-46 with a decent .711 OPS (102 OPS+) and a 3.96 ERA on the road this year. However, at home, they were 56-25 (the best home record of any team in the playoffs this year) with a 106 OPS+ and an ERA of 3.20.
WHO TO WATCH
For the Braves offensively, this list is very short. Their team leader in OPS was Jason Heyward with a mark of .849. A very good mark (especially given that he is a rookie) but nothing that will instill fear in opposing pitchers. Only one regular hit 20 home runs (Brian McCann with 21) and only two regulars hit above .300 (Omar Infante at .321 and Martin Prado at .307) during the regular season.
In their rotation, they have three quality starters but their success will begin and end with Tim Hudson. The right-hander had one of the best seasons of his career, going 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Behind him, Derek Lower was his usual dependable self (16-12, 4.00, 193.2 IP) and Tommy Hanson was a pleasant surprise (10-11, 3.33, 1.174 WHIP). Given what the Giants have done this year on the mound, the Braves’ starters will be key to their success.
The Giants offensively this year weren’t all that bad (just in September) but they were still far from the strongest lineup in this playoff field. Aubrey Huff will have to carry much of the load (.891 OPS, 26 HR) and the Giants are really hoping that Kung Fu Panda (Pablo Sandoval) will hit better in October than he did from April to September (.732 OPS, 13 HR).
Pitching is where the Giants have excelled for a long time. In September, the team had an ERA of 1.91, a WHIP of .945, and allowed opponents an OPS of just .543. They have a “Big Three” that can arguably rival that of the Phillies with Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43), Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14), and Jonathon Sanchez (13-9, 3.07). The win-loss records aren’t nearly as good because of the relative strength of their offenses. In the bullpen, Brian Wilson has saved 48 games and boasts a 1.81 ERA this season in 74.2 innings.
THE VERDICT
The Giants are rolling and the Braves haven’t had the win-or-die mentality for quite some time, squandering a lead in the NL East to the Phillies. Look for the Braves to win one but no more than that.
GIANTS 3-1
CINCINNATI REDS VS. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
The Reds have played well all year long but there is no doubt that they took advantage of a Cardinals collapse. A while back it looked like this race might go down to the wire but that never materialized. The Reds are here because they spent all season beating up on lefties and bad teams. Their .600 winning percentage against left-handed starters was second best amongst playoff teams (to the Rays) and they also had the second best record against teams that were under .500 (.651).
Unfortunately, the flip side of that coin is one they may not want to hear about. Their .542 winning percentage against righties and .377 against winning teams were by far the lowest of any playoff teams; an ominous sign since they have to play the team that had the best record in baseball (the 97-65 Phillies) who have two of the best right-handed starters in the game right now (Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt).
For the Phillies, they have nothing to win and everything to lose. The last time the Reds were in the playoffs was in 1995 while the Phillies are the two-time defending NL champions. For the Phillies this year, attention has gone from the Big Three (Howard, Utley, and Rollins) to the next Big Three (Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels) but one could easily argue that the former will be more important than the latter.
WHO TO WATCH
The Reds had four regulars hit 20 or more home runs and only one had an OPS+ under 100 (below league average) but their success will largely depend on either Joey Votto or how well everyone else does if the Phillies can neutralize him. The presumptive MVP had a slash line of .324/.424/.600 with 37 home runs and 113 RBI this year and he is the straw in the Reds’ drink. The question is whether or not he can get the help he needs from the rest of the line-up.
The rotation is a huge question mark. Johnny Cueto has the ability to shut down any offense on any given night but after that, it’s Bronson Arroyo and a couple question marks. Mike Leake has come back to earth after his torrent start to his rookie campaign. Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood have thrown between 102.2 and 111.2 innings this year so a rotation by committee is entirely possible.
For the Phillies, their offensive output is nowhere near what they have grown accustomed to the past few years because they’ve been decimated by injuries. Howard, Utley, and Rollins all missed time this year and how well they play will largely determine how far they are able to go. The X-factor in this line-up is Jayson Werth, who led the team with a .921 OPS and finished second on the team with 27 home runs. Jimmy Rollins, becoming more of a Mr. Intangible by the day, batted very poorly in just 88 games this year (.243/.320/.374 with 8 home runs and 41 RBI) and he will need to step up for the Phillies to make it back to the World Series.
At last, we have reached the current Big Three: Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44, 9 complete games), Roy Oswalt (7-1, 1.74, 0.895 WHIP since being traded), and Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06, 1.179 WHIP). Those three give Charlie Manuel an amazing amount of flexibility and it also gives him a couple other starters in Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton that he may or may not need to actually start a game, a problem that seven other managers would love to have right now.
THE VERDICT
The Reds haven’t been to the playoffs in 15 years and the Phillies have played 29 postseason games in the past two years.
PHILLIES 3-1
TEXAS RANGERS VS. TAMPA BAY RAYS
Again, we have a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs in over ten years playing a team that has went to the World Series just two years ago with basically the same team they have now. The Rays have a .643 winning percentage against lefties, which could spell disaster for the Rangers and ace Cliff Lee. This match-up also puts the closest home/away records together when the Rangers host the Rays. The Rangers were 51-30 at home this year but the Rays had the best road records amongst playoff teams (by four games) at 47-34.
Another point of concern for the Rangers is that they, like the Reds, built their record against the Mariners while the Rays had to contend with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees. The Rays .588 winning percentage against above .500 teams was tied for the best amongst playoff teams with the Phillies but while the Phillies only played 68 games against winning teams, the Rays played an astounding 97 such games (57-40). Meanwhile, the Rangers were just 39-42 against teams with a winning record.
WHO TO WATCH
Is Josh Hamilton healthy? His .359 batting average is the highest in team history and despite missing most of September with an injury, he still hit 32 home runs and drove in 100 runs. If he is at or close to 100%, he can potentially carry this line-up but if the injury is still nagging him, the Rangers might play more like the team that was just a little above average in September (15-12).
Other than Hamilton, the Rangers’ line-up isn’t terribly impressive, especially since Vladimir Guerrero hasn’t played nearly as well in the second half as he did before the All-Star break (.919 OPS in the first half vs. .748 in the second half).
On the pitching side of things, Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, and Tommy Hunter have all been solid and the wildcard in the rotation looks like it’s going to be Cliff Lee. Since being traded to Texas, Lee is just 4-6 with an ERA of 3.98. However, for the season, Lee still leads the AL in complete games (7), WHIP (1.003), and strikeout to walk ratio (10.28).
For the Rays, a lot of their success may be determined by how well Carlos Pena plays. He leads the team with 28 home runs but his slash line is poor to say the least at .196/.325/.407. Evan Longoria is developing into one of the best young players in the league (especially when considering his defense) and this year his slash line (.294/.372/.507) is nothing but solid. An X-factor for them could end up being the play of Carl Crawford and BJ Upton given that runs will be at a premium in October: they combined to steal 89 bases and got caught just 19 times.
The rotation is led by David Price who has had a Cy Young caliber season. Behind him, the rotation is a little weaker than it has been in recent years. Matt Garza always has the ability to shut down an opponent (evidenced by his no-hitter against Detroit earlier this year) and James Shields has pitched better than his 5.18 ERA would suggest. Behind those three, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis have pitched well (for the bottom of the rotation) but not as well as they might need in October. The biggest addition that they made in the offseason was closer Rafael Soriano who has been nothing short of brilliant this year with an ERA of 1.73 and 45 saves.
THE VERDICT
The Rangers offense will test the back end of the Rays rotation and that might make it interesting. David Price will offset Cliff Lee but the Rangers have a deeper rotation than the Rays but in the end, the Rays are too good to be upset in the first round.
RAYS 3-2
NEW YORK YANKEES VS. MINNESOTA TWINS
On paper, this might just be the best series of the first round and whoever wins this series might be fodder for their opponent in the ALCS. Both teams played well against righties, lefties, winning teams, losing teams, and in one run games. Both teams played very well at home (53-28 for the Twins and 52-29 for the Yankees) and struggled a bit on the road (41-40 for the Twins and 43-38 for the Yankees).
Looking at the entire team statistics, even the home/road splits, it looks very much like this series could be one where all five games are won by the home team.
WHO TO WATCH
The Yankees are the defending World Series champions and managed to win 95 games this year but several of the regulars didn’t play nearly as well as they did a year ago. Despite hitting 30+ home runs this year, Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506) and Mark Teixeira (.256/.365/.481) haven’t been nearly as dangerous as they have in years past. Derek Jeter was the only Yankees regular with an OPS+ below average (90 due to a .270/.340/.370 slash line) this year.
The strongest points in their line-up this year have been Nick Swisher (who hit just .162 last postseason) and Robinson Cano (who hit .193 last year in the playoffs).
So who’s going to show up in this line-up? The answer to that question will largely determine whether or not the Yankees have a chance to repeat as champions.
In their rotation, CC Sabathia has been very good, Phil Hughes has been good, AJ Burnett has been very hit and miss, Javier Vazquez seems to be able to pitch well anywhere but in New York, and Andy Pettitte is missed a lot of time this year due to injury. At the back end of the bullpen, Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera. However, who pitches the first 8 innings has got to be a big concern for Joe Girardi.
On the Twins’ side of things, they have been nothing short of amazing since the loss of Justin Morneau for an indefinite period of time since he went down with a concussion on July 7th. One of the biggest reasons for their continued good play has been the remarkable play of Jim Thome. The just-turned-40-year-old has a slash line of .283/.412/.627 with 25 home runs in just 276 at-bats and perhaps playing so little will keep him fresh for the postseason. Along with Thome, Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469), Delmon Young (.826 OPS with 21 home runs), and Jason Kubel (21 home runs) make this a deep line-up.
Their rotation throws strikes and they pitch to contact but they also have a top of the rotation starter in Francisco Liriano that can stop a losing streak. Behind him, Carl Pavano is having a very good season but other than that, nothing about this pitching staff jumps out as being better than solid. Will that be good enough, given the Yankees relative offensive woes compared to a year ago?
THE VERDICT
The Yankees haven’t been as good this year as they were last year which is interesting to say because they went 95-67, led the league in runs, finished second in OPS+, and finished 10th in ERA+. Frankly, they just don’t scare me going into the playoffs like they did last year. A year ago, they had the edge of not having won a World Series since 2000 and there was all sorts of pressure to win. This year, there isn’t that same sense of urgency and I have a feeling the Twins are the perfect no-nonsense kind of team to take advantage.
TWINS 3-2
And that does it for the first round of the playoffs. The Twins will play the Rays in the ALCS and the Phillies will match up against the Giants in the NLCS. Look for a preview of those series between the first round and the LCS round of the playoffs.
Game on!
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