MLB Playoff Preview 2010

The leaves are turning and the calendar just rolled from September to October and that means playoff baseball. For the seventh consecutive year, at least one playoff spot was decided on the last day of the regular season but unlike the past couple years, we did not need to go to game #163 to get our 8 team playoff field. So who will win? Will the Yankees repeat? Will the H2O big three carry Philadelphia to their third straight NL crown and second World Series crown in three years?

Let’s find out!

NL DIVISION SERIES
ATLANTA BRAVES VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

This series features a pair of teams will an extreme dichotomy between their performance at home and on the road and the way the playoffs are set up, that always favors the team given home field advantage in the round (in this case, the Giants).

While the Giants just had a six game difference between their home and road records (49-32 vs. 43-38), the Braves had the largest difference of any playoff team: an incredible 21 games.

The Braves were just 35-46 with a decent .711 OPS (102 OPS+) and a 3.96 ERA on the road this year. However, at home, they were 56-25 (the best home record of any team in the playoffs this year) with a 106 OPS+ and an ERA of 3.20.

WHO TO WATCH

For the Braves offensively, this list is very short. Their team leader in OPS was Jason Heyward with a mark of .849. A very good mark (especially given that he is a rookie) but nothing that will instill fear in opposing pitchers. Only one regular hit 20 home runs (Brian McCann with 21) and only two regulars hit above .300 (Omar Infante at .321 and Martin Prado at .307) during the regular season.

In their rotation, they have three quality starters but their success will begin and end with Tim Hudson. The right-hander had one of the best seasons of his career, going 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Behind him, Derek Lower was his usual dependable self (16-12, 4.00, 193.2 IP) and Tommy Hanson was a pleasant surprise (10-11, 3.33, 1.174 WHIP). Given what the Giants have done this year on the mound, the Braves’ starters will be key to their success.

The Giants offensively this year weren’t all that bad (just in September) but they were still far from the strongest lineup in this playoff field. Aubrey Huff will have to carry much of the load (.891 OPS, 26 HR) and the Giants are really hoping that Kung Fu Panda (Pablo Sandoval) will hit better in October than he did from April to September (.732 OPS, 13 HR).

Pitching is where the Giants have excelled for a long time. In September, the team had an ERA of 1.91, a WHIP of .945, and allowed opponents an OPS of just .543. They have a “Big Three” that can arguably rival that of the Phillies with Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43), Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14), and Jonathon Sanchez (13-9, 3.07). The win-loss records aren’t nearly as good because of the relative strength of their offenses. In the bullpen, Brian Wilson has saved 48 games and boasts a 1.81 ERA this season in 74.2 innings.
THE VERDICT

The Giants are rolling and the Braves haven’t had the win-or-die mentality for quite some time, squandering a lead in the NL East to the Phillies. Look for the Braves to win one but no more than that.

GIANTS 3-1


CINCINNATI REDS VS. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

The Reds have played well all year long but there is no doubt that they took advantage of a Cardinals collapse. A while back it looked like this race might go down to the wire but that never materialized. The Reds are here because they spent all season beating up on lefties and bad teams. Their .600 winning percentage against left-handed starters was second best amongst playoff teams (to the Rays) and they also had the second best record against teams that were under .500 (.651).

Unfortunately, the flip side of that coin is one they may not want to hear about. Their .542 winning percentage against righties and .377 against winning teams were by far the lowest of any playoff teams; an ominous sign since they have to play the team that had the best record in baseball (the 97-65 Phillies) who have two of the best right-handed starters in the game right now (Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt).

For the Phillies, they have nothing to win and everything to lose. The last time the Reds were in the playoffs was in 1995 while the Phillies are the two-time defending NL champions. For the Phillies this year, attention has gone from the Big Three (Howard, Utley, and Rollins) to the next Big Three (Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels) but one could easily argue that the former will be more important than the latter.

WHO TO WATCH

The Reds had four regulars hit 20 or more home runs and only one had an OPS+ under 100 (below league average) but their success will largely depend on either Joey Votto or how well everyone else does if the Phillies can neutralize him. The presumptive MVP had a slash line of .324/.424/.600 with 37 home runs and 113 RBI this year and he is the straw in the Reds’ drink. The question is whether or not he can get the help he needs from the rest of the line-up.

The rotation is a huge question mark. Johnny Cueto has the ability to shut down any offense on any given night but after that, it’s Bronson Arroyo and a couple question marks. Mike Leake has come back to earth after his torrent start to his rookie campaign. Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood have thrown between 102.2 and 111.2 innings this year so a rotation by committee is entirely possible.

For the Phillies, their offensive output is nowhere near what they have grown accustomed to the past few years because they’ve been decimated by injuries. Howard, Utley, and Rollins all missed time this year and how well they play will largely determine how far they are able to go. The X-factor in this line-up is Jayson Werth, who led the team with a .921 OPS and finished second on the team with 27 home runs. Jimmy Rollins, becoming more of a Mr. Intangible by the day, batted very poorly in just 88 games this year (.243/.320/.374 with 8 home runs and 41 RBI) and he will need to step up for the Phillies to make it back to the World Series.

At last, we have reached the current Big Three: Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44, 9 complete games), Roy Oswalt (7-1, 1.74, 0.895 WHIP since being traded), and Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06, 1.179 WHIP). Those three give Charlie Manuel an amazing amount of flexibility and it also gives him a couple other starters in Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton that he may or may not need to actually start a game, a problem that seven other managers would love to have right now.

THE VERDICT

The Reds haven’t been to the playoffs in 15 years and the Phillies have played 29 postseason games in the past two years.

PHILLIES 3-1


TEXAS RANGERS VS. TAMPA BAY RAYS

Again, we have a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs in over ten years playing a team that has went to the World Series just two years ago with basically the same team they have now. The Rays have a .643 winning percentage against lefties, which could spell disaster for the Rangers and ace Cliff Lee. This match-up also puts the closest home/away records together when the Rangers host the Rays. The Rangers were 51-30 at home this year but the Rays had the best road records amongst playoff teams (by four games) at 47-34.

Another point of concern for the Rangers is that they, like the Reds, built their record against the Mariners while the Rays had to contend with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees. The Rays .588 winning percentage against above .500 teams was tied for the best amongst playoff teams with the Phillies but while the Phillies only played 68 games against winning teams, the Rays played an astounding 97 such games (57-40). Meanwhile, the Rangers were just 39-42 against teams with a winning record.

WHO TO WATCH

Is Josh Hamilton healthy? His .359 batting average is the highest in team history and despite missing most of September with an injury, he still hit 32 home runs and drove in 100 runs. If he is at or close to 100%, he can potentially carry this line-up but if the injury is still nagging him, the Rangers might play more like the team that was just a little above average in September (15-12).

Other than Hamilton, the Rangers’ line-up isn’t terribly impressive, especially since Vladimir Guerrero hasn’t played nearly as well in the second half as he did before the All-Star break (.919 OPS in the first half vs. .748 in the second half).

On the pitching side of things, Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, and Tommy Hunter have all been solid and the wildcard in the rotation looks like it’s going to be Cliff Lee. Since being traded to Texas, Lee is just 4-6 with an ERA of 3.98. However, for the season, Lee still leads the AL in complete games (7), WHIP (1.003), and strikeout to walk ratio (10.28).

For the Rays, a lot of their success may be determined by how well Carlos Pena plays. He leads the team with 28 home runs but his slash line is poor to say the least at .196/.325/.407. Evan Longoria is developing into one of the best young players in the league (especially when considering his defense) and this year his slash line (.294/.372/.507) is nothing but solid. An X-factor for them could end up being the play of Carl Crawford and BJ Upton given that runs will be at a premium in October: they combined to steal 89 bases and got caught just 19 times.

The rotation is led by David Price who has had a Cy Young caliber season. Behind him, the rotation is a little weaker than it has been in recent years. Matt Garza always has the ability to shut down an opponent (evidenced by his no-hitter against Detroit earlier this year) and James Shields has pitched better than his 5.18 ERA would suggest. Behind those three, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis have pitched well (for the bottom of the rotation) but not as well as they might need in October. The biggest addition that they made in the offseason was closer Rafael Soriano who has been nothing short of brilliant this year with an ERA of 1.73 and 45 saves.

THE VERDICT

The Rangers offense will test the back end of the Rays rotation and that might make it interesting. David Price will offset Cliff Lee but the Rangers have a deeper rotation than the Rays but in the end, the Rays are too good to be upset in the first round.

RAYS 3-2


NEW YORK YANKEES VS. MINNESOTA TWINS

On paper, this might just be the best series of the first round and whoever wins this series might be fodder for their opponent in the ALCS. Both teams played well against righties, lefties, winning teams, losing teams, and in one run games. Both teams played very well at home (53-28 for the Twins and 52-29 for the Yankees) and struggled a bit on the road (41-40 for the Twins and 43-38 for the Yankees).

Looking at the entire team statistics, even the home/road splits, it looks very much like this series could be one where all five games are won by the home team.

WHO TO WATCH

The Yankees are the defending World Series champions and managed to win 95 games this year but several of the regulars didn’t play nearly as well as they did a year ago. Despite hitting 30+ home runs this year, Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506) and Mark Teixeira (.256/.365/.481) haven’t been nearly as dangerous as they have in years past. Derek Jeter was the only Yankees regular with an OPS+ below average (90 due to a .270/.340/.370 slash line) this year.

The strongest points in their line-up this year have been Nick Swisher (who hit just .162 last postseason) and Robinson Cano (who hit .193 last year in the playoffs).

So who’s going to show up in this line-up? The answer to that question will largely determine whether or not the Yankees have a chance to repeat as champions.

In their rotation, CC Sabathia has been very good, Phil Hughes has been good, AJ Burnett has been very hit and miss, Javier Vazquez seems to be able to pitch well anywhere but in New York, and Andy Pettitte is missed a lot of time this year due to injury. At the back end of the bullpen, Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera. However, who pitches the first 8 innings has got to be a big concern for Joe Girardi.

On the Twins’ side of things, they have been nothing short of amazing since the loss of Justin Morneau for an indefinite period of time since he went down with a concussion on July 7th. One of the biggest reasons for their continued good play has been the remarkable play of Jim Thome. The just-turned-40-year-old has a slash line of .283/.412/.627 with 25 home runs in just 276 at-bats and perhaps playing so little will keep him fresh for the postseason. Along with Thome, Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469), Delmon Young (.826 OPS with 21 home runs), and Jason Kubel (21 home runs) make this a deep line-up.

Their rotation throws strikes and they pitch to contact but they also have a top of the rotation starter in Francisco Liriano that can stop a losing streak. Behind him, Carl Pavano is having a very good season but other than that, nothing about this pitching staff jumps out as being better than solid. Will that be good enough, given the Yankees relative offensive woes compared to a year ago?

THE VERDICT

The Yankees haven’t been as good this year as they were last year which is interesting to say because they went 95-67, led the league in runs, finished second in OPS+, and finished 10th in ERA+. Frankly, they just don’t scare me going into the playoffs like they did last year. A year ago, they had the edge of not having won a World Series since 2000 and there was all sorts of pressure to win. This year, there isn’t that same sense of urgency and I have a feeling the Twins are the perfect no-nonsense kind of team to take advantage.

TWINS 3-2


And that does it for the first round of the playoffs. The Twins will play the Rays in the ALCS and the Phillies will match up against the Giants in the NLCS. Look for a preview of those series between the first round and the LCS round of the playoffs.

Game on!