Six of the seven series are in the books for the 2010 postseason and through some fluke of luck, I’m still batting .500. The Rays were the only team to defy my predictions in the division series and then both the Yankees and Phillies, looking to provide the first World Series rematch in back-to-back years since 1977 and 1978 when the Yankees beat the Dodgers 4-2 in both years, fell flat in their respective LCS, managing just two wins.
So, it is time to admit that yes, after years of frustrations and records propped up by playing in one of the weakest divisions in baseball, the Rangers are for real. It can all be traced back to July 9th when they were bold and daring and audacious and said that no matter how good they were (50-36, 4.5 games ahead of second place) they could be better. That was the day that they acquired former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee from the last place Seattle Mariners and despite struggling their way to a 90-72 regular season record, they had all the pieces in place for a deep postseason run; I just didn’t believe in them.
On the other side of things, the San Francisco Giants needed all 162 games to secure their playoff spot, beating the Padres on the last day of the regular season to avoid a three way tie between them, the Padres, and the Braves for just two playoff spots. Their starting pitching carried them into the playoffs with an otherworldly September and much like in the American League, I thought their starters would do well but I got blinded by the stars in the LCS.
BY THE NUMBERS
In the division series, Texas hit .253/.286/.437 and outscored the Rays 21-13. In the LCS, those numbers jumped to .304/.378/.512 and 38-19, respectively, outscoring the Yankees by more than any single team has ever outscored them in a single series. How’s that for making playoff history?
While Tommy Hunter and CJ Lewis struggled a bit against the Yankees (0-1 in three games, 11 ER in 15.1 innings), Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis were more than enough to pick up the slack (3-0, 3 ER, 26 K in 21.2 innings) and history has shown time and time again that two reliable starters can certainly be enough to win a 7 game series.
After an abysmal batting line in the DS (.212/.288/.295) the Giants didn’t do much better in the LCS, though there was a definite improvement (.244/.301/.353) and considering they were going against a much more formidable staff in the LCS than the DS, this difference becomes very significant. The oddest thing about the Giants so far this postseason is despite their 7-3 record, they have managed to barely outscore their opponents by a total score of 30-29 (by contrast, the Rangers are 7-4 and have a run differential of 59-32). So the obvious question surrounding the Giants is will they be able to score enough runs and hold the Rangers to few enough runs to get four more wins?
X-FACTOR
For the Giants, I could say their entire offense is the x-factor. Their pitching staff will hold the Rangers to a winnable number of runs in at least four games of this series and then the only question is whether or not their offense can put up more runs.
Since the spotlight is on, I’m going to go with Cody Ross. So far this postseason, he is 11-34 (.324/.395/.794 slash line) but more importantly, he has 4 of San Francisco’s 6 home runs so far this October. Home runs are very valuable in the postseason because it is instant offense and doesn’t require any more than one swing of the bat to put runs on the board. Someone needs to provide a dangerous bat in the lineup for the Giants and so far it’s been Ross.
For the Rangers, they have two x-factors and they are the two biggest names on the team. First of all is Josh Hamilton. He was pretty much invisible in the DS against the Rays and in my mind it was logical to conclude that if he batted similarly against the Yankees, the Rangers had no chance of making it this far. All he did in the LCS was go 7-20 (.350/.536/1.000 slash line) with 4 home runs, 7 RBI, and 8 walks. When he swings the bat, it doesn’t even look like he hits the ball well and the next thing you know, fans are fighting over the souvenir. This lineup is better when he is hitting well and if he hits wells against the Giants, they are in trouble.
The other x-factor for the Rangers is the presence that looms over everything: Cliff Lee. So far this postseason, his numbers have been amazing. In three starts (all wins), he has pitched 24 innings, allowed 2 runs on 13 hits, walked 1 and struck out 34. In his postseason career, he is 7-0 with an ERA of 1.26 (in 64.1 innings) and he’s struck out 64 while walking only 7 and allowing just one home run. In last year’s World Series against a potent Yankees lineup, he was 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA which is the highest ERA he’s ever had in a single postseason series.
Will he pitch three times on short rest? My guess is no. He is, however, lined up to pitch game 1 in San Francisco and then potentially game 5 back in Texas. The good news for Rangers fans is if he does that, he’ll be on three day’s rest for either a start or a relief appearance in game 7 and while the Giants players and coaches will never say that scares them, they can’t be looking forward to facing him that many times. It’s possible that Bochy manages more aggressively in the first few games to try and minimize Lee’s impact similar to last year when Lee pitched game 5 already down 3-1 to the Yankees.
I know that managers don’t like to ever concede games, especially when there are only 7 and it’s the World Series but given the run that Lee is on, I almost wonder if the wisest course of action would be to start someone other than Lincecum against him, thus maximizing the chances that you win the games that Lee is not starting. Probably not the best move for clubhouse morale but interesting food for thought.
THE VERDICT
As far as I can tell, the Rangers have the edge in just about every way except home field advantage. Their offense is more potent, their defense is comparable as is their pitching staff. To me, they have a bigger chip on their shoulder and have more momentum coming into this series. But instead of relying on such vague subjective bits and pieces, I’m going to through this one out there.
In the wildcard era (1995 onward), there has only been one World Series matching teams whose regular season records were within 3 games of each other (the Giants were 92-70 while the Rangers were 90-72). In that series, the Diamondbacks (92-70) beat the Yankees (95-67) in seven games. In fact, in the 15 World Series since the advent of the wildcard, the team with fewer regular season wins has won 9 times and lost just 6.
There you have it. After 47 years of frustration, the Texas Rangers will win the World Series.
RANGERS 4, GIANTS 2
Showing posts with label Texas Rangers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Texas Rangers. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
ALCS Preview
Eight games are in the books in the American League playoffs for 2010 and two teams have been eliminated. Friday night, the Minnesota Twins will visit the Tampa Bay Rays in the first game of the…
Wait, what?
The Rangers at the Yankees?
Yes, apparently my wonderful predictions could not have been more wrong in the first round of the AL playoffs. Cliff Lee pitched exactly like the Rangers wanted him to when they traded for him a few months ago and sure enough, when the chips were down on the table, the Rangers won just one of three games in which Lee did not start. However, they won both games the left hander started and he is closer and closer to a huge payday this offseason.
In the other series, the Yankees have the Twins number and there is no other way to say it. In the wildcard era (since 1995), the Twins and Yankees have played in the first round of the playoffs four times and have won all four series while posting a 12-2 record.
Now the two face off and at face value, the advantage is firmly in the Yankees corner and the reasons aren’t so much for home/road splits or key players or anything of that sort. Many people hate to talk about “intangibles” but whatever they are, the Yankees have them. They play the game the right way and while they may not do anything great, they do everything well.
BY THE NUMBERS
The Yankees outscored the Twins 17-7 and had a slash line of .314/.351/.865 in the sweep while allowing the Twins a slash line of just .216/.280/.330 and two of those three games were on the road for the Yankees.
CC Sabathia pitched decently in game 1 (6.0-5-4-3-3-5), Andy Pettitte pitched very well in game 2 (7.0-5-2-2-1-4), and Phil Hughes pitched brilliantly in game 3 (7.0-4-0-0-1-6), answering some of the biggest questions about this team coming into the postseason. On top of that, their bullpen pitched 7.0 innings and gave up just 1 run on 7 hits.
On the other side, the Rangers won the first series in the wildcard era where every game was won by the road team (so much for home field advantage). The fact that makes that tidbit so unusual is the fact that the Rangers had the second worst road record (39-42) of any playoff team and all they did was win three games against a team that went 49-32 at home. So are they afraid of the new Yankee Stadium and the Yankees 52-29 home record? I seriously doubt it.
The Rangers had a slash line of .253/.283/.437 while they allowed the Rays a .215/.270/.355 slash line. The number that jumps out at me the most is that they had just a .283 on-base percentage and scored just 21 runs in five games but their starting pitching was superb. CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter combined to pitch 15.1 innings and allowed just two earned runs on 10 hits while posting a K/BB ratio of 19:7. Then there’s Cliff Lee. So given that their starters posted an ERA of 1.15, how did they not sweep the Rays? Mostly because their bullpen had a 5.27 ERA in 13.2 innings.
X-FACTORS
For the Rangers, their success in this series will be measured not by what Cliff Lee can do but rather by what everyone else can do. He is tentatively scheduled to start game 3 at home in front of what will surely be a rambunctious crowd in Arlington and then potentially game 7 in front of the hostile New York fans. Will CJ Wilson (6.1-2-0-0-2-7) be able to duplicate his success against the Yankees in game 1 of the series in the Bronx? Will Josh Hamilton be able to bounce back from a disappointing division series (.111/.200/.111)? Will Neftali Feliz pitch like he did in the regular season (2.73 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) or like he did in his first two career playoff games (1.1-2-1-1-3-2)?
For the Yankees, Mark Teixeira went 4-13 with a home run, Marcus Thames was 2-7 with a home run, Nick Swisher was 4-12 with a home run, and the trio of Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Jorge Posada hit a pedestrian .278 with no extra base hits. Robinson Cano continued his solid season, going 4-12 in the division series and Lance Berkman provided a spark off the bench, going 2-4 with a home run and a double in the Yankees 5-2 game 2 victory.
The biggest x-factor though is Curtis Granderson. In September and October this season, Granderson had a slash line of .263/.362/.596 and hit 9 home runs in 99 at-bats. In the division series against the Twins, he played very well, hitting .455 (5-11) with a double, a triple, 3 RBI, and more importantly, just one strikeout.
When you add all of that up, it looks like a very deep and dangerous line-up, especially when guys named Rodriguez, Posada, and Jeter haven’t made any serious contributions yet. One of the biggest factors for the Yankees success will be how well their line-up as a whole performs. Last year in the World Series, it was mostly Hideki Matsui’s heroics that made up for a relatively lackluster effort from the rest of batting order.
The other x-factor in my opinion is the AJ Burnett. This season he had five starts with a game score of 70 or better and he had five starts with a GS under 20. In last year’s ALCS and World Series, Burnett was solid to brilliant in two starts on 7 days rest (GS of 61 against the Angels and 72 against the Phillies in the World Series) and downright bad in two starts on short rest (32 against the Angels and 22 against the Phillies). Is some of that due to the fact that it was the second time both teams saw him in a series? Probably, but I think it’s safe to say that on short rest, AJ Burnett is a liability and given how he’s pitched this season, he’s no better than a 4th or 5th starter right now. If they Yankees can steal a win with him on the mound, they will consider themselves lucky.
THE VERDICT
Right now, these are the projected starters for the ALCS (with the home team in parentheses):
Game 1 (NY): CJ Wilson vs. CC Sabathia
Game 2 (NY): Colby Lewis vs. Phil Hughes
Game 3 (TEX): Andy Pettitte vs. Cliff Lee
Game 4 (TEX): AJ Burnett vs. Tommy Hunter
After that, the match-ups for games 1-3 can repeat with all pitchers throwing on regular rest. Based on how they fared this season, the Yankees have an advantage in games 1 and 4 while the Rangers have the advantage in game 3. That leaves a critical game 2 start between Colby Lewis and Phil Hughes. If the Yankees win, they could be looking at a 2-0 advantage going to Texas and potentially have Sabathia back on the mound in Texas with a 3-1 series lead. If the Rangers win that game and steal a game in New York, it will be tied going home for the Rangers and could be tied at 2 going into the final 3 games. If that happens, all signs point to an Andy Pettitte-Cliff Lee showdown in game 7 in Yankee Stadium.
Alas, just 8 of 30 LCS match-ups have gone the distance in the wild card era and this will not be #9.
YANKEES 4, RANGERS 2
Wait, what?
The Rangers at the Yankees?
Yes, apparently my wonderful predictions could not have been more wrong in the first round of the AL playoffs. Cliff Lee pitched exactly like the Rangers wanted him to when they traded for him a few months ago and sure enough, when the chips were down on the table, the Rangers won just one of three games in which Lee did not start. However, they won both games the left hander started and he is closer and closer to a huge payday this offseason.
In the other series, the Yankees have the Twins number and there is no other way to say it. In the wildcard era (since 1995), the Twins and Yankees have played in the first round of the playoffs four times and have won all four series while posting a 12-2 record.
Now the two face off and at face value, the advantage is firmly in the Yankees corner and the reasons aren’t so much for home/road splits or key players or anything of that sort. Many people hate to talk about “intangibles” but whatever they are, the Yankees have them. They play the game the right way and while they may not do anything great, they do everything well.
BY THE NUMBERS
The Yankees outscored the Twins 17-7 and had a slash line of .314/.351/.865 in the sweep while allowing the Twins a slash line of just .216/.280/.330 and two of those three games were on the road for the Yankees.
CC Sabathia pitched decently in game 1 (6.0-5-4-3-3-5), Andy Pettitte pitched very well in game 2 (7.0-5-2-2-1-4), and Phil Hughes pitched brilliantly in game 3 (7.0-4-0-0-1-6), answering some of the biggest questions about this team coming into the postseason. On top of that, their bullpen pitched 7.0 innings and gave up just 1 run on 7 hits.
On the other side, the Rangers won the first series in the wildcard era where every game was won by the road team (so much for home field advantage). The fact that makes that tidbit so unusual is the fact that the Rangers had the second worst road record (39-42) of any playoff team and all they did was win three games against a team that went 49-32 at home. So are they afraid of the new Yankee Stadium and the Yankees 52-29 home record? I seriously doubt it.
The Rangers had a slash line of .253/.283/.437 while they allowed the Rays a .215/.270/.355 slash line. The number that jumps out at me the most is that they had just a .283 on-base percentage and scored just 21 runs in five games but their starting pitching was superb. CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter combined to pitch 15.1 innings and allowed just two earned runs on 10 hits while posting a K/BB ratio of 19:7. Then there’s Cliff Lee. So given that their starters posted an ERA of 1.15, how did they not sweep the Rays? Mostly because their bullpen had a 5.27 ERA in 13.2 innings.
X-FACTORS
For the Rangers, their success in this series will be measured not by what Cliff Lee can do but rather by what everyone else can do. He is tentatively scheduled to start game 3 at home in front of what will surely be a rambunctious crowd in Arlington and then potentially game 7 in front of the hostile New York fans. Will CJ Wilson (6.1-2-0-0-2-7) be able to duplicate his success against the Yankees in game 1 of the series in the Bronx? Will Josh Hamilton be able to bounce back from a disappointing division series (.111/.200/.111)? Will Neftali Feliz pitch like he did in the regular season (2.73 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) or like he did in his first two career playoff games (1.1-2-1-1-3-2)?
For the Yankees, Mark Teixeira went 4-13 with a home run, Marcus Thames was 2-7 with a home run, Nick Swisher was 4-12 with a home run, and the trio of Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Jorge Posada hit a pedestrian .278 with no extra base hits. Robinson Cano continued his solid season, going 4-12 in the division series and Lance Berkman provided a spark off the bench, going 2-4 with a home run and a double in the Yankees 5-2 game 2 victory.
The biggest x-factor though is Curtis Granderson. In September and October this season, Granderson had a slash line of .263/.362/.596 and hit 9 home runs in 99 at-bats. In the division series against the Twins, he played very well, hitting .455 (5-11) with a double, a triple, 3 RBI, and more importantly, just one strikeout.
When you add all of that up, it looks like a very deep and dangerous line-up, especially when guys named Rodriguez, Posada, and Jeter haven’t made any serious contributions yet. One of the biggest factors for the Yankees success will be how well their line-up as a whole performs. Last year in the World Series, it was mostly Hideki Matsui’s heroics that made up for a relatively lackluster effort from the rest of batting order.
The other x-factor in my opinion is the AJ Burnett. This season he had five starts with a game score of 70 or better and he had five starts with a GS under 20. In last year’s ALCS and World Series, Burnett was solid to brilliant in two starts on 7 days rest (GS of 61 against the Angels and 72 against the Phillies in the World Series) and downright bad in two starts on short rest (32 against the Angels and 22 against the Phillies). Is some of that due to the fact that it was the second time both teams saw him in a series? Probably, but I think it’s safe to say that on short rest, AJ Burnett is a liability and given how he’s pitched this season, he’s no better than a 4th or 5th starter right now. If they Yankees can steal a win with him on the mound, they will consider themselves lucky.
THE VERDICT
Right now, these are the projected starters for the ALCS (with the home team in parentheses):
Game 1 (NY): CJ Wilson vs. CC Sabathia
Game 2 (NY): Colby Lewis vs. Phil Hughes
Game 3 (TEX): Andy Pettitte vs. Cliff Lee
Game 4 (TEX): AJ Burnett vs. Tommy Hunter
After that, the match-ups for games 1-3 can repeat with all pitchers throwing on regular rest. Based on how they fared this season, the Yankees have an advantage in games 1 and 4 while the Rangers have the advantage in game 3. That leaves a critical game 2 start between Colby Lewis and Phil Hughes. If the Yankees win, they could be looking at a 2-0 advantage going to Texas and potentially have Sabathia back on the mound in Texas with a 3-1 series lead. If the Rangers win that game and steal a game in New York, it will be tied going home for the Rangers and could be tied at 2 going into the final 3 games. If that happens, all signs point to an Andy Pettitte-Cliff Lee showdown in game 7 in Yankee Stadium.
Alas, just 8 of 30 LCS match-ups have gone the distance in the wild card era and this will not be #9.
YANKEES 4, RANGERS 2
Monday, October 4, 2010
MLB Playoff Preview 2010
The leaves are turning and the calendar just rolled from September to October and that means playoff baseball. For the seventh consecutive year, at least one playoff spot was decided on the last day of the regular season but unlike the past couple years, we did not need to go to game #163 to get our 8 team playoff field. So who will win? Will the Yankees repeat? Will the H2O big three carry Philadelphia to their third straight NL crown and second World Series crown in three years?
Let’s find out!
NL DIVISION SERIES
ATLANTA BRAVES VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
This series features a pair of teams will an extreme dichotomy between their performance at home and on the road and the way the playoffs are set up, that always favors the team given home field advantage in the round (in this case, the Giants).
While the Giants just had a six game difference between their home and road records (49-32 vs. 43-38), the Braves had the largest difference of any playoff team: an incredible 21 games.
The Braves were just 35-46 with a decent .711 OPS (102 OPS+) and a 3.96 ERA on the road this year. However, at home, they were 56-25 (the best home record of any team in the playoffs this year) with a 106 OPS+ and an ERA of 3.20.
WHO TO WATCH
For the Braves offensively, this list is very short. Their team leader in OPS was Jason Heyward with a mark of .849. A very good mark (especially given that he is a rookie) but nothing that will instill fear in opposing pitchers. Only one regular hit 20 home runs (Brian McCann with 21) and only two regulars hit above .300 (Omar Infante at .321 and Martin Prado at .307) during the regular season.
In their rotation, they have three quality starters but their success will begin and end with Tim Hudson. The right-hander had one of the best seasons of his career, going 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Behind him, Derek Lower was his usual dependable self (16-12, 4.00, 193.2 IP) and Tommy Hanson was a pleasant surprise (10-11, 3.33, 1.174 WHIP). Given what the Giants have done this year on the mound, the Braves’ starters will be key to their success.
The Giants offensively this year weren’t all that bad (just in September) but they were still far from the strongest lineup in this playoff field. Aubrey Huff will have to carry much of the load (.891 OPS, 26 HR) and the Giants are really hoping that Kung Fu Panda (Pablo Sandoval) will hit better in October than he did from April to September (.732 OPS, 13 HR).
Pitching is where the Giants have excelled for a long time. In September, the team had an ERA of 1.91, a WHIP of .945, and allowed opponents an OPS of just .543. They have a “Big Three” that can arguably rival that of the Phillies with Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43), Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14), and Jonathon Sanchez (13-9, 3.07). The win-loss records aren’t nearly as good because of the relative strength of their offenses. In the bullpen, Brian Wilson has saved 48 games and boasts a 1.81 ERA this season in 74.2 innings.
THE VERDICT
The Giants are rolling and the Braves haven’t had the win-or-die mentality for quite some time, squandering a lead in the NL East to the Phillies. Look for the Braves to win one but no more than that.
GIANTS 3-1
CINCINNATI REDS VS. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
The Reds have played well all year long but there is no doubt that they took advantage of a Cardinals collapse. A while back it looked like this race might go down to the wire but that never materialized. The Reds are here because they spent all season beating up on lefties and bad teams. Their .600 winning percentage against left-handed starters was second best amongst playoff teams (to the Rays) and they also had the second best record against teams that were under .500 (.651).
Unfortunately, the flip side of that coin is one they may not want to hear about. Their .542 winning percentage against righties and .377 against winning teams were by far the lowest of any playoff teams; an ominous sign since they have to play the team that had the best record in baseball (the 97-65 Phillies) who have two of the best right-handed starters in the game right now (Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt).
For the Phillies, they have nothing to win and everything to lose. The last time the Reds were in the playoffs was in 1995 while the Phillies are the two-time defending NL champions. For the Phillies this year, attention has gone from the Big Three (Howard, Utley, and Rollins) to the next Big Three (Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels) but one could easily argue that the former will be more important than the latter.
WHO TO WATCH
The Reds had four regulars hit 20 or more home runs and only one had an OPS+ under 100 (below league average) but their success will largely depend on either Joey Votto or how well everyone else does if the Phillies can neutralize him. The presumptive MVP had a slash line of .324/.424/.600 with 37 home runs and 113 RBI this year and he is the straw in the Reds’ drink. The question is whether or not he can get the help he needs from the rest of the line-up.
The rotation is a huge question mark. Johnny Cueto has the ability to shut down any offense on any given night but after that, it’s Bronson Arroyo and a couple question marks. Mike Leake has come back to earth after his torrent start to his rookie campaign. Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood have thrown between 102.2 and 111.2 innings this year so a rotation by committee is entirely possible.
For the Phillies, their offensive output is nowhere near what they have grown accustomed to the past few years because they’ve been decimated by injuries. Howard, Utley, and Rollins all missed time this year and how well they play will largely determine how far they are able to go. The X-factor in this line-up is Jayson Werth, who led the team with a .921 OPS and finished second on the team with 27 home runs. Jimmy Rollins, becoming more of a Mr. Intangible by the day, batted very poorly in just 88 games this year (.243/.320/.374 with 8 home runs and 41 RBI) and he will need to step up for the Phillies to make it back to the World Series.
At last, we have reached the current Big Three: Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44, 9 complete games), Roy Oswalt (7-1, 1.74, 0.895 WHIP since being traded), and Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06, 1.179 WHIP). Those three give Charlie Manuel an amazing amount of flexibility and it also gives him a couple other starters in Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton that he may or may not need to actually start a game, a problem that seven other managers would love to have right now.
THE VERDICT
The Reds haven’t been to the playoffs in 15 years and the Phillies have played 29 postseason games in the past two years.
PHILLIES 3-1
TEXAS RANGERS VS. TAMPA BAY RAYS
Again, we have a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs in over ten years playing a team that has went to the World Series just two years ago with basically the same team they have now. The Rays have a .643 winning percentage against lefties, which could spell disaster for the Rangers and ace Cliff Lee. This match-up also puts the closest home/away records together when the Rangers host the Rays. The Rangers were 51-30 at home this year but the Rays had the best road records amongst playoff teams (by four games) at 47-34.
Another point of concern for the Rangers is that they, like the Reds, built their record against the Mariners while the Rays had to contend with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees. The Rays .588 winning percentage against above .500 teams was tied for the best amongst playoff teams with the Phillies but while the Phillies only played 68 games against winning teams, the Rays played an astounding 97 such games (57-40). Meanwhile, the Rangers were just 39-42 against teams with a winning record.
WHO TO WATCH
Is Josh Hamilton healthy? His .359 batting average is the highest in team history and despite missing most of September with an injury, he still hit 32 home runs and drove in 100 runs. If he is at or close to 100%, he can potentially carry this line-up but if the injury is still nagging him, the Rangers might play more like the team that was just a little above average in September (15-12).
Other than Hamilton, the Rangers’ line-up isn’t terribly impressive, especially since Vladimir Guerrero hasn’t played nearly as well in the second half as he did before the All-Star break (.919 OPS in the first half vs. .748 in the second half).
On the pitching side of things, Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, and Tommy Hunter have all been solid and the wildcard in the rotation looks like it’s going to be Cliff Lee. Since being traded to Texas, Lee is just 4-6 with an ERA of 3.98. However, for the season, Lee still leads the AL in complete games (7), WHIP (1.003), and strikeout to walk ratio (10.28).
For the Rays, a lot of their success may be determined by how well Carlos Pena plays. He leads the team with 28 home runs but his slash line is poor to say the least at .196/.325/.407. Evan Longoria is developing into one of the best young players in the league (especially when considering his defense) and this year his slash line (.294/.372/.507) is nothing but solid. An X-factor for them could end up being the play of Carl Crawford and BJ Upton given that runs will be at a premium in October: they combined to steal 89 bases and got caught just 19 times.
The rotation is led by David Price who has had a Cy Young caliber season. Behind him, the rotation is a little weaker than it has been in recent years. Matt Garza always has the ability to shut down an opponent (evidenced by his no-hitter against Detroit earlier this year) and James Shields has pitched better than his 5.18 ERA would suggest. Behind those three, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis have pitched well (for the bottom of the rotation) but not as well as they might need in October. The biggest addition that they made in the offseason was closer Rafael Soriano who has been nothing short of brilliant this year with an ERA of 1.73 and 45 saves.
THE VERDICT
The Rangers offense will test the back end of the Rays rotation and that might make it interesting. David Price will offset Cliff Lee but the Rangers have a deeper rotation than the Rays but in the end, the Rays are too good to be upset in the first round.
RAYS 3-2
NEW YORK YANKEES VS. MINNESOTA TWINS
On paper, this might just be the best series of the first round and whoever wins this series might be fodder for their opponent in the ALCS. Both teams played well against righties, lefties, winning teams, losing teams, and in one run games. Both teams played very well at home (53-28 for the Twins and 52-29 for the Yankees) and struggled a bit on the road (41-40 for the Twins and 43-38 for the Yankees).
Looking at the entire team statistics, even the home/road splits, it looks very much like this series could be one where all five games are won by the home team.
WHO TO WATCH
The Yankees are the defending World Series champions and managed to win 95 games this year but several of the regulars didn’t play nearly as well as they did a year ago. Despite hitting 30+ home runs this year, Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506) and Mark Teixeira (.256/.365/.481) haven’t been nearly as dangerous as they have in years past. Derek Jeter was the only Yankees regular with an OPS+ below average (90 due to a .270/.340/.370 slash line) this year.
The strongest points in their line-up this year have been Nick Swisher (who hit just .162 last postseason) and Robinson Cano (who hit .193 last year in the playoffs).
So who’s going to show up in this line-up? The answer to that question will largely determine whether or not the Yankees have a chance to repeat as champions.
In their rotation, CC Sabathia has been very good, Phil Hughes has been good, AJ Burnett has been very hit and miss, Javier Vazquez seems to be able to pitch well anywhere but in New York, and Andy Pettitte is missed a lot of time this year due to injury. At the back end of the bullpen, Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera. However, who pitches the first 8 innings has got to be a big concern for Joe Girardi.
On the Twins’ side of things, they have been nothing short of amazing since the loss of Justin Morneau for an indefinite period of time since he went down with a concussion on July 7th. One of the biggest reasons for their continued good play has been the remarkable play of Jim Thome. The just-turned-40-year-old has a slash line of .283/.412/.627 with 25 home runs in just 276 at-bats and perhaps playing so little will keep him fresh for the postseason. Along with Thome, Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469), Delmon Young (.826 OPS with 21 home runs), and Jason Kubel (21 home runs) make this a deep line-up.
Their rotation throws strikes and they pitch to contact but they also have a top of the rotation starter in Francisco Liriano that can stop a losing streak. Behind him, Carl Pavano is having a very good season but other than that, nothing about this pitching staff jumps out as being better than solid. Will that be good enough, given the Yankees relative offensive woes compared to a year ago?
THE VERDICT
The Yankees haven’t been as good this year as they were last year which is interesting to say because they went 95-67, led the league in runs, finished second in OPS+, and finished 10th in ERA+. Frankly, they just don’t scare me going into the playoffs like they did last year. A year ago, they had the edge of not having won a World Series since 2000 and there was all sorts of pressure to win. This year, there isn’t that same sense of urgency and I have a feeling the Twins are the perfect no-nonsense kind of team to take advantage.
TWINS 3-2
And that does it for the first round of the playoffs. The Twins will play the Rays in the ALCS and the Phillies will match up against the Giants in the NLCS. Look for a preview of those series between the first round and the LCS round of the playoffs.
Game on!
Let’s find out!
NL DIVISION SERIES
ATLANTA BRAVES VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
This series features a pair of teams will an extreme dichotomy between their performance at home and on the road and the way the playoffs are set up, that always favors the team given home field advantage in the round (in this case, the Giants).
While the Giants just had a six game difference between their home and road records (49-32 vs. 43-38), the Braves had the largest difference of any playoff team: an incredible 21 games.
The Braves were just 35-46 with a decent .711 OPS (102 OPS+) and a 3.96 ERA on the road this year. However, at home, they were 56-25 (the best home record of any team in the playoffs this year) with a 106 OPS+ and an ERA of 3.20.
WHO TO WATCH
For the Braves offensively, this list is very short. Their team leader in OPS was Jason Heyward with a mark of .849. A very good mark (especially given that he is a rookie) but nothing that will instill fear in opposing pitchers. Only one regular hit 20 home runs (Brian McCann with 21) and only two regulars hit above .300 (Omar Infante at .321 and Martin Prado at .307) during the regular season.
In their rotation, they have three quality starters but their success will begin and end with Tim Hudson. The right-hander had one of the best seasons of his career, going 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Behind him, Derek Lower was his usual dependable self (16-12, 4.00, 193.2 IP) and Tommy Hanson was a pleasant surprise (10-11, 3.33, 1.174 WHIP). Given what the Giants have done this year on the mound, the Braves’ starters will be key to their success.
The Giants offensively this year weren’t all that bad (just in September) but they were still far from the strongest lineup in this playoff field. Aubrey Huff will have to carry much of the load (.891 OPS, 26 HR) and the Giants are really hoping that Kung Fu Panda (Pablo Sandoval) will hit better in October than he did from April to September (.732 OPS, 13 HR).
Pitching is where the Giants have excelled for a long time. In September, the team had an ERA of 1.91, a WHIP of .945, and allowed opponents an OPS of just .543. They have a “Big Three” that can arguably rival that of the Phillies with Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43), Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14), and Jonathon Sanchez (13-9, 3.07). The win-loss records aren’t nearly as good because of the relative strength of their offenses. In the bullpen, Brian Wilson has saved 48 games and boasts a 1.81 ERA this season in 74.2 innings.
THE VERDICT
The Giants are rolling and the Braves haven’t had the win-or-die mentality for quite some time, squandering a lead in the NL East to the Phillies. Look for the Braves to win one but no more than that.
GIANTS 3-1
CINCINNATI REDS VS. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
The Reds have played well all year long but there is no doubt that they took advantage of a Cardinals collapse. A while back it looked like this race might go down to the wire but that never materialized. The Reds are here because they spent all season beating up on lefties and bad teams. Their .600 winning percentage against left-handed starters was second best amongst playoff teams (to the Rays) and they also had the second best record against teams that were under .500 (.651).
Unfortunately, the flip side of that coin is one they may not want to hear about. Their .542 winning percentage against righties and .377 against winning teams were by far the lowest of any playoff teams; an ominous sign since they have to play the team that had the best record in baseball (the 97-65 Phillies) who have two of the best right-handed starters in the game right now (Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt).
For the Phillies, they have nothing to win and everything to lose. The last time the Reds were in the playoffs was in 1995 while the Phillies are the two-time defending NL champions. For the Phillies this year, attention has gone from the Big Three (Howard, Utley, and Rollins) to the next Big Three (Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels) but one could easily argue that the former will be more important than the latter.
WHO TO WATCH
The Reds had four regulars hit 20 or more home runs and only one had an OPS+ under 100 (below league average) but their success will largely depend on either Joey Votto or how well everyone else does if the Phillies can neutralize him. The presumptive MVP had a slash line of .324/.424/.600 with 37 home runs and 113 RBI this year and he is the straw in the Reds’ drink. The question is whether or not he can get the help he needs from the rest of the line-up.
The rotation is a huge question mark. Johnny Cueto has the ability to shut down any offense on any given night but after that, it’s Bronson Arroyo and a couple question marks. Mike Leake has come back to earth after his torrent start to his rookie campaign. Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood have thrown between 102.2 and 111.2 innings this year so a rotation by committee is entirely possible.
For the Phillies, their offensive output is nowhere near what they have grown accustomed to the past few years because they’ve been decimated by injuries. Howard, Utley, and Rollins all missed time this year and how well they play will largely determine how far they are able to go. The X-factor in this line-up is Jayson Werth, who led the team with a .921 OPS and finished second on the team with 27 home runs. Jimmy Rollins, becoming more of a Mr. Intangible by the day, batted very poorly in just 88 games this year (.243/.320/.374 with 8 home runs and 41 RBI) and he will need to step up for the Phillies to make it back to the World Series.
At last, we have reached the current Big Three: Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44, 9 complete games), Roy Oswalt (7-1, 1.74, 0.895 WHIP since being traded), and Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06, 1.179 WHIP). Those three give Charlie Manuel an amazing amount of flexibility and it also gives him a couple other starters in Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton that he may or may not need to actually start a game, a problem that seven other managers would love to have right now.
THE VERDICT
The Reds haven’t been to the playoffs in 15 years and the Phillies have played 29 postseason games in the past two years.
PHILLIES 3-1
TEXAS RANGERS VS. TAMPA BAY RAYS
Again, we have a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs in over ten years playing a team that has went to the World Series just two years ago with basically the same team they have now. The Rays have a .643 winning percentage against lefties, which could spell disaster for the Rangers and ace Cliff Lee. This match-up also puts the closest home/away records together when the Rangers host the Rays. The Rangers were 51-30 at home this year but the Rays had the best road records amongst playoff teams (by four games) at 47-34.
Another point of concern for the Rangers is that they, like the Reds, built their record against the Mariners while the Rays had to contend with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees. The Rays .588 winning percentage against above .500 teams was tied for the best amongst playoff teams with the Phillies but while the Phillies only played 68 games against winning teams, the Rays played an astounding 97 such games (57-40). Meanwhile, the Rangers were just 39-42 against teams with a winning record.
WHO TO WATCH
Is Josh Hamilton healthy? His .359 batting average is the highest in team history and despite missing most of September with an injury, he still hit 32 home runs and drove in 100 runs. If he is at or close to 100%, he can potentially carry this line-up but if the injury is still nagging him, the Rangers might play more like the team that was just a little above average in September (15-12).
Other than Hamilton, the Rangers’ line-up isn’t terribly impressive, especially since Vladimir Guerrero hasn’t played nearly as well in the second half as he did before the All-Star break (.919 OPS in the first half vs. .748 in the second half).
On the pitching side of things, Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, and Tommy Hunter have all been solid and the wildcard in the rotation looks like it’s going to be Cliff Lee. Since being traded to Texas, Lee is just 4-6 with an ERA of 3.98. However, for the season, Lee still leads the AL in complete games (7), WHIP (1.003), and strikeout to walk ratio (10.28).
For the Rays, a lot of their success may be determined by how well Carlos Pena plays. He leads the team with 28 home runs but his slash line is poor to say the least at .196/.325/.407. Evan Longoria is developing into one of the best young players in the league (especially when considering his defense) and this year his slash line (.294/.372/.507) is nothing but solid. An X-factor for them could end up being the play of Carl Crawford and BJ Upton given that runs will be at a premium in October: they combined to steal 89 bases and got caught just 19 times.
The rotation is led by David Price who has had a Cy Young caliber season. Behind him, the rotation is a little weaker than it has been in recent years. Matt Garza always has the ability to shut down an opponent (evidenced by his no-hitter against Detroit earlier this year) and James Shields has pitched better than his 5.18 ERA would suggest. Behind those three, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis have pitched well (for the bottom of the rotation) but not as well as they might need in October. The biggest addition that they made in the offseason was closer Rafael Soriano who has been nothing short of brilliant this year with an ERA of 1.73 and 45 saves.
THE VERDICT
The Rangers offense will test the back end of the Rays rotation and that might make it interesting. David Price will offset Cliff Lee but the Rangers have a deeper rotation than the Rays but in the end, the Rays are too good to be upset in the first round.
RAYS 3-2
NEW YORK YANKEES VS. MINNESOTA TWINS
On paper, this might just be the best series of the first round and whoever wins this series might be fodder for their opponent in the ALCS. Both teams played well against righties, lefties, winning teams, losing teams, and in one run games. Both teams played very well at home (53-28 for the Twins and 52-29 for the Yankees) and struggled a bit on the road (41-40 for the Twins and 43-38 for the Yankees).
Looking at the entire team statistics, even the home/road splits, it looks very much like this series could be one where all five games are won by the home team.
WHO TO WATCH
The Yankees are the defending World Series champions and managed to win 95 games this year but several of the regulars didn’t play nearly as well as they did a year ago. Despite hitting 30+ home runs this year, Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506) and Mark Teixeira (.256/.365/.481) haven’t been nearly as dangerous as they have in years past. Derek Jeter was the only Yankees regular with an OPS+ below average (90 due to a .270/.340/.370 slash line) this year.
The strongest points in their line-up this year have been Nick Swisher (who hit just .162 last postseason) and Robinson Cano (who hit .193 last year in the playoffs).
So who’s going to show up in this line-up? The answer to that question will largely determine whether or not the Yankees have a chance to repeat as champions.
In their rotation, CC Sabathia has been very good, Phil Hughes has been good, AJ Burnett has been very hit and miss, Javier Vazquez seems to be able to pitch well anywhere but in New York, and Andy Pettitte is missed a lot of time this year due to injury. At the back end of the bullpen, Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera. However, who pitches the first 8 innings has got to be a big concern for Joe Girardi.
On the Twins’ side of things, they have been nothing short of amazing since the loss of Justin Morneau for an indefinite period of time since he went down with a concussion on July 7th. One of the biggest reasons for their continued good play has been the remarkable play of Jim Thome. The just-turned-40-year-old has a slash line of .283/.412/.627 with 25 home runs in just 276 at-bats and perhaps playing so little will keep him fresh for the postseason. Along with Thome, Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469), Delmon Young (.826 OPS with 21 home runs), and Jason Kubel (21 home runs) make this a deep line-up.
Their rotation throws strikes and they pitch to contact but they also have a top of the rotation starter in Francisco Liriano that can stop a losing streak. Behind him, Carl Pavano is having a very good season but other than that, nothing about this pitching staff jumps out as being better than solid. Will that be good enough, given the Yankees relative offensive woes compared to a year ago?
THE VERDICT
The Yankees haven’t been as good this year as they were last year which is interesting to say because they went 95-67, led the league in runs, finished second in OPS+, and finished 10th in ERA+. Frankly, they just don’t scare me going into the playoffs like they did last year. A year ago, they had the edge of not having won a World Series since 2000 and there was all sorts of pressure to win. This year, there isn’t that same sense of urgency and I have a feeling the Twins are the perfect no-nonsense kind of team to take advantage.
TWINS 3-2
And that does it for the first round of the playoffs. The Twins will play the Rays in the ALCS and the Phillies will match up against the Giants in the NLCS. Look for a preview of those series between the first round and the LCS round of the playoffs.
Game on!
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