Prop Bets and the Super Bowl

If you came up to me and handed me $100 to bet on this Sunday’s Super Bowl, how would I bet it? Before I answer this fun and completely hypothetical question, I want to say something that is anything but fun or hypothetical.

Gambling is dangerous. As radio host Colin Cowherd repeatedly says on his show on ESPN Radio, you should never gamble more than you can afford to lose. The fear of becoming addicting to gambling is one of the biggest reasons that I’ve only set foot in a casino a handful of times since turning 21. It’s fun to win and the hope that the next hand will turn around a spell of bad luck can be the easiest lie we ever tell ourselves.

Please think long and hard before placing any money on any sporting event. If you have second thoughts about the wisdom of making that bet, you probably shouldn’t be placing it. On that note, I consider myself more than a casual NFL fan but far less than an expert. I’m looking to have some fun with a few of the many available prop bets associated with the Super Bowl; I’m not looking to make money. If you use my suggestions to make bets, you are assuming all of the risk as I am not claiming to know anything more than your typical NFL fan. To reinforce the fact that this is completely a thought exercise, I will be placing bets in simoleons, the currency of Sim City.

PROP BETS

The Super Bowl very clearly shows that the United States is simply obsessed with two things; the Super Bowl itself and gambling. Before going any further, I’d suggest reading the following piece by Bill Barnwell on Grantland.com about a few various prop bets associated with this Super Bowl.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8889349/bill-barnwell-prop-bets

There is one section that is especially important in this piece that I’m just going to quote here because before reading Barnwell’s piece, I had no idea what a line of +700 meant.

This is Barnwell’s explanation of what it means when the line of there being overtime is +700 and the line on there not being overtime is -1000:

“The "+700" figure next to "Yes" means that a bettor would receive $700 back in profit if they bet $100 on the event occurring before it actually happened. If you held this winning ticket with $100 and brought it to the counter, you would be handed back $800 (the $700 profit plus your initial $100 bet). The "-1000" figure next to "No" replaces the positive sign at the beginning with a negative sign; it indicates that you have to bet the dollar amount in question to win $100. In this case, if you wanted to win $100 betting against the possibility that there would be overtime, you would need to bet $1000. If there's no overtime, you would win $1100 (the $100 profit plus your initial $1000 bet).”

In other words, if you’re betting on a line with a negative number, you’re betting on an outcome that has a better than 50/50 chance of happening. In this context, it makes complete sense. NFL games rarely go to overtime so betting on there NOT being overtime and being correct only yields 10% on your bet.

MY BETS

In a lot of ways, I view the thought of determining which bets to make a lot like I would view a roulette table before the ball is rolled. It seems logical to me to bet smaller amounts on some longshot outcomes while betting larger amounts on more predictable outcomes to hopefully balance out the missed longshots and keep me above even. My goal is making these picks is not to maximize my potential outcome; it’s to maximize my outcome while minimizing my exposure to long odds bets.

Obviously, the list of bets that Barnwell puts forth isn’t comprehensive but I’m going to pick from that list and the list at one other website I found. First, the favorites:

MENTIONS OF THE “HARBAUGH BOWL, “HARBOWL”, OR “SUPERBAUGH”

OVER 2.5 (-110)

This seems like a complete no-brainer to me. Somehow there are people out there that think the broadcasters are going to resist using one of these catchy terms once or twice at most? While it might not be Phil Simms or Jim Nantz that goes here, you have to remember that the broadcast team includes the sideline reporters and the crew doing the halftime show. My bet is 20 simoleons on the over.

WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 2 POINT CONVERSION?

NO (-500)

In the first 46 Super Bowls, teams are 6-13 when going for two and those attempts have come in 8 different Super Bowls. However, for these purposes it must be considered that the San Diego Chargers were 2-2 in Super Bowl XXIX. Therefore, there has only been five Super Bowls with a successful two point conversion, or 10.9%.

A line of -500 implies that something has only an 83.3% chance of happening when, according to Super Bowl history, it actually has an 89.1% chance of happening. Statistically speaking, this bet feels like a very safe one. NFL coaches don’t like going for two unless they’re completely desperate and the game is basically over but the Super Bowl is the one venue where some coaches might be willing to put it on the line.

The only reason this bet doesn’t feel terribly secure is that all of the two point conversion attempts have occurred in the past 18 Super Bowls. If you use that as your sample size instead of all 46 Super Bowls, then the “yes” bet looks like a steal. This can be considered the “entertainment” portion of the post when you read along and watch me talk myself out of a particular bet…

They wouldn’t, would they? Two great running games, plus Colin Kaepernick… plus it looks like Jim Harbaugh is willing to take this kind of risk…

Oh, this is just icky… I’m putting 20 simoleons on No but this really doesn’t feel safe.

WILL THERE BE A DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS TOUCHDOWN?

NO (-200)

I’m just not feeling this one. I feel like the two quarterbacks are playing well enough right now to avoid a pick-6 (this is the point where I remember Kaepernick throwing one against Green Bay) and I don’t feel like either team has a particularly dynamic special teams to be able to bring one back.

I know that Baltimore gave up not one but two special teams TD’s against the Broncos but I saw a very different team in the second half against the Broncos and against the Patriots than I did in the first half in Denver. They’re playing very well and I just don’t see them giving up another one. Sometimes it feels like defensive and special teams TD’s come in bunches and I can’t help but think that for the 2012/13 playoffs, we’ve already seen the bunches.

On top of all that, -200 seems like a pretty favorable line. This seems like a fairly high reward for an outcome with a fairly high probability. Twenty simoleons on No.

WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 4TH DOWN CONVERSION?

YES (-250)

Between Jim Harbaugh’s aggressiveness (and his new QB) and the Ravens’ win-it-all-for-Ray mentality, I can’t imagine there not being at least one successful 4th down conversion. I know these are stout defenses but if one team gets down early, it would make this even more of a lock to come true. If there’s only one attempt the whole game, then I could see it going over to the “No” side, but if one team finds themselves in a situation where they need two scores in the final five minutes of regulation, there will definitely be a 4th down conversion. Fifteen simoleons on Yes.

THE UNDERDOGS

WILL THERE BE A SAFETY?

YES (+900)

I was looking up data on two point conversions and noticed there were quite a few safeties. In 46 Super Bowls, there have been 7, or one in 15.2% of the games. This line implies a 10% chance of something happening so I’ll be getting some pretty good value here.

I know that Barnwell points out that the two pass rushes are struggling coming into this game but their special teams are well coached (enough to pin the other team deep) and there are other ways to get a safety, such as in Super Bowl XLIII when the Steelers were called for holding in the endzone. It also happened last year when Tom Brady was called for intentional grounding in the endzone.

Crazy things can happen when a football bounces… five simoleons on Yes.

WHO WILL THE MVP BE?

COLIN KAEPERNICK (+175)
JOE FLACCO (+225)

I’m lumping these together for obvious reasons. In my opinion, these two have been the MVP’s of their teams’ respective Super Bowl runs and I see no reason why that should stop now. Many players will be important on both sides of the ball for both teams but nobody is more important than these two guys.

Let me put it another way; when I ponder all the ways in which both teams can win this game, there are few instances where I think a team can win with their quarterback playing poorly. Five simoleons on each.

WHAT COLOR WILL THE GATORADE (OR LIQUID) DUMPED ON THE WINNING COACH BE?

RED (+750)

This is an example of how ridiculous prop bets can be. Having said that, considering that just about every beverage maker (and especially those that specialize in sports drinks) have a flavor that is colored red, this feels like a steal to me. When you add in the fact that the 49ers primary color is red, it just reinforces the feeling to me that this is way too high of a line. Five simoleons on red.

THERE WILL BE NO TOUCHDOWNS

YES (+20,000)

This is the longshot of all longshots and it becomes even more so when you consider that these two teams have combined for 22 touchdowns in their combined 5 games. However, a bet offering a 200:1 payout when you have two very good defenses feels like a good longshot on which to put a little bit of action. To me, this is the equivalent of having a lucky number at the roulette table where you always put a penny at the table’s with a dollar minimum bet.

Working against me in this bet is the fact that the game is in the Superdome and, in case you haven’t seen him play, Colin Kaepernick is fast. Considering that next year’s Super Bowl is in East Rutherford, New Jersey, and the forecast for Sunday calls for highs of 37 degrees, 13 mph winds, and a few snow showers, this bet will look quite a bit better next year. However, there’s no way you’ll get a line of +20,000 next year in the Meadowlands. Five simoleons on nobody reaching the endzone.


SUMMARY

There you have it, I’m placed 100 simoleons on prop bets on the Super Bowl. Of my nine bets, only two are mutually exclusive (MVP race) so I could potentially go 8-9. If I were to do that with Flacco winning the MVP trophy, I’ll turn my 100 simoleons into 1,226.93 simoleons (1,224.43 if Kaepernick wins MVP).

Disregarding the fact that two of them are mutually exclusive, based solely on the lines, I have a 0.00014% chance of running the table. Of course, with my luck, Kaepernick will get hurt on the first series of the game and Alex Smith will come in and lead the 49ers to a thrilling victory, winning the MVP trophy by throwing four touchdowns (including the game winning two point conversion) after throwing a pick 6 to Ray Lewis to start his day. Jim Harbaugh will be doused in water (it’s better for you anyways) at the end of the game where the announcers forget to mention even once that Jim and John Harbaugh are related.

This, ladies and gentlemen, is why I don’t gamble.

As for who wins the game, the last I heard is that the 49ers are 4.5 point favorites. Part of me says that line is too generous and another part of me says it's not generous enough. My prediction is that it comes down to the kickers. David Akers (29-42 in the regular season) will miss his only attempt in the first quarter while rookie Justin Tucker (30-33 this year) while make three field goals, including one early in the fourth quarter, setting up Ray Lewis to make a huge tackle on fourth down inside of two minutes. Ravens 30-28.

Enjoy the Super Bowl everyone and I’ll be back next week to look at how well (or depressingly) these (fake) bets turned out.