BCS Preview: Orange Bowl

In arguably the least anticipated BCS bowl this year (outside of the home cities of these two schools of course) Iowa will play Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl in Miami. For both of these schools, this is a story of what could have been.

Iowa won their first 9 games and was ranked as high as #4 before its crippling loss to Northwestern. Couple with that their overtime loss the next week to Ohio State and they were denied the Big Ten title and an automatic berth in the BCS. Instead they had to rely on an at-large berth, which I personally didn’t think they had done enough to deserve. However, they were probably helped by the fact that they had beaten their main competitor for that BCS berth, Penn State, 21-10 back in September.

Georgia Tech lost early in the season to Miami on September 17th and managed to make it back to #7 in the rankings (behind 6 undefeated teams) before losing to Georgia in a rivalry game right before the ACC Championship Game.

With the exception of Ohio State’s win over Iowa, the other three losses by these teams were against teams they should have beaten. Granted, with 5 teams going into the bowl season undefeated, it’s unlikely that either of them would have played for the national title even if they had finished undefeated but it’s possible that they would have gotten a better draw against a higher profile opponent. No offense to either of these teams, but neither of them has been in the national title discussion since Iowa sustained their first loss.

By the Numbers

This game will feature two teams with two completely different strengths.

Georgia Tech may not have been the best offensive team but their triple option attack was certainly ranked quite highly. They ranked 2nd in rushing with 307 yards per game, 11th in total offense (443 yards per game), and 8th in passing efficiency (157.4). For a team that runs the ball as much as they do, those numbers are very good.

This Yellow Jackets team also had little trouble putting points on the score board, surpassing 30 points 8 times this year, including 4 games with more than 40 points. However, the flip side of that coin is that their defense has been pedestrian at times. Georgia Tech has allowed more than 30 points 6 times this year and their defense is a major concern. They finished the regular season ranked 58th in points allowed and 54th in yards allowed per game.

Iowa’s strength this year has been defense with just enough offense. Their offense managed to score 30 points just 3 times this year but their defense never allowed more than 28 points and ranked 10th nationally, allowing just 15.5 points per game.

Why the Yellow Jackets Will Win

They have a ball control offense against a team that has trouble scoring points. That right there is a winning combination. Going slightly deeper, Josh Nesbitt has played well for the Yellow Jackets, passing for 1,689 yards, rushing for 991 yards, and combining for 28 touchdowns.

The only concern when it comes to Nesbitt is the fact that he only completed 47.7% of his passes. If Iowa’s 33rd ranked rushing defense is able to stop Georgia Tech’s option attack and it’s up to Nesbitt to carry this team, it might be difficult for the Yellow Jackets to win. If Nesbitt and Jonathon Dwyer (1,346 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns) are able to dictate the tempo and keep the Iowa defense on the field, the Hawkeyes will have a very hard time winning.

Why the Hawkeyes Will Win

The number one reason that they will win is that junior quarterback Ricky Stanzi will be back in the line-up. Georgia Tech’s defense is vulnerable and if Stanzi can keep the Hawkeye offense on the field, they definitely have a chance to win.

Unfortunately, everything hinges on their ability to stop the Yellow Jacket ground attack. If they can, they would force Josh Nesbitt to start throwing into the Hawkeye defense that ranked 8th in passing yards allowed and 4th in passing efficiency allowed.

Lastly, they won’t panic if they fall behind and they are very used to coming back from a deficit. In their 10 wins this season, they trailed into the second half in 5 of them and into the 4th quarter in 4 of them. They know how to come back if they trail early or late.

The Verdict

Iowa is hoping for a defensive minded, field position type of football game. Georgia Tech is hoping that they can get out into the open field and run around a bit and it’s most important to Iowa that they dictate the pace of the game. Georgia Tech can still win a slower paced game but Iowa will have very little chance of winning a shoot-out. In the end, the triple option will take home the Orange Bowl trophy.

Georgia Tech 28, Iowa 17