BCS Preview: Fiesta Bowl

Monday, January 4th will provide one of the more interesting match-ups of the 2009-2010 bowl season when the Texas Christian Horned Frogs play the Boise State Broncos in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl in Arizona.

Both teams wanted to be somewhere else, playing on a different night and many people around the country will say that these teams deserved better than they got in their bowl selection. To this point I will dedicate this paragraph and nothing else. The thing you have to remember about the BCS selection process is the teams have no say in where they play and the NCAA (I believe) also has very little say in where teams play. I refuse to believe that there was a conspiracy to make sure that these teams didn’t play teams from the bigger conferences. The Fiesta Bowl officials wanted the best game they could get and considering that some of the other power teams were taken along the lines of conference tie-ins, these are the two best teams they could get. On top of that, there are storylines that the Fiesta Bowl has this year that no other bowl can boast and that will help boost interest in the game, and therefore revenue produced. Yes, I’m sorry to say, when it comes to bowl selection, money has a ton to do with it. But please, don’t say that the NCAA or the BCS arranged this match-up to protect their borderline unassailable fortress because that is preposterous.

Now, on to the game...

This game could be a replay of the Poinsettia Bowl from a year ago, when TCU beat Boise State 17-16. This year, TCU is trying to finish off the very good bowl season that the Mountain West Conference is working on. Boise State, on the other hand, is trying to get validation for the Western Athletic Conference that seems to be falling well behind the Mountain West as the pre-eminent non-automatic qualifying conference.

By the Numbers

This is going to be a game between two teams whose numbers were probably inflated by their relatively weak schedules (84th for TCU, 98th for Boise State).

TCU and Boise State rank (TCU and Boise State, respectively) in the top 20 nationally in points per game (4th and 1st), rushing yards (5th and 20th), total yards (4th and 8th), passing efficiency (3rd and 2nd), points allowed per game (6th and 16th), passing defense (4th and 13th), total defense (1st and 13th), and passing efficiency defense (2nd and 12th).

The biggest number that jumps out is the turnover margin of both teams. TCU ranked 41st in the country with an average turnover margin of 0.33. Boise State, on the other hand, had an average margin of 1.46 which was good enough for 2nd in the country.

Why the Horned Frogs Will Win

Offensively, the Horned Frogs remind me of the Florida team that won the national championship a year ago. Andy Dalton had an efficient year at quarterback (159.6 quarterback rating, 4th nationally) who also finished with 522 rushing yards. Dalton was one of four players on the team who rushed for over 500 yards this year, including Edward Wesley (630), Matthew Tucker (667), and team leader Joseph Turner (732 yards with 11 touchdowns). Any time you have that number of playmakers on your side, you stand a very good chance of winning the game.

However, I feel the Horned Frogs will win because of their defense. They allowed just 233 yards per game and allowed quarterbacks a passer rating of 90.3, a key statistic considering their opposing quarterback in this game.

Lastly, despite the fact that they haven’t played a close game in almost three months (the last game decided by one possession was their 20-17 win over Air Force on October 10th) they have shown that they can win games when their offense doesn’t play well, when their defense doesn’t play well, at home, or on the road.

Why the Broncos Will Win

First and foremost, Boise State has more to gain and much more to lose in this game than TCU. TCU doesn’t need to win for the Mountain West Conference to have a good postseason. If Boise State loses, their reputation, as well as that of the WAC, will be seriously damaged. I doubt the Boise State coaching staff has impressed this point upon the players, but I’m sure they all know the stakes given the hits their reputation has taken in the media this season.

The reason they will win starts and ends at quarterback with Kellen Moore. He led the nation in passing efficiency and led the Broncos to the top ranked scoring offense in the country while throwing 39 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions.

They also have a dynamic 1-2 punch at running back between Jeremy Avery (1,130 yards with 6 touchdowns) and Doug Martin (723 yards with 14 touchdowns). If the two of them can hammer out some tough yards against the 3rd ranked rushing defense of TCU, Kellen Moore should be able to pick apart the TCU secondary.

The Verdict

This is by far the toughest game to call because both of these teams had games where they played well against teams from automatic qualifying conferences and they both had games where they played inferior teams and blew them out of the water.

The signature game that stands out to me when it comes to predicting this game was Boise State’s home game against Nevada. At that point in the season Boise State was trying to impress the voters and in the first quarter it felt like they were going for style points. After returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown, the Broncos scored again less than six minutes later at the 9 minute mark of the first quarter and they went for two. In the defense of the Broncos, maybe their place kicker was hurt or asleep for that try, but considering that Kyle Brotzman kicked five extra points and a field goal, I have a hard time believing this. Despite the fact that they missed the conversion, they raced out to a 27-3 lead at the 10 minute mark of the second quarter.

At that point, for whatever reason, the Broncos disappeared. From that point until the end of the game, Nevada outscored the top ten ranked Boise State 30-17 and outplayed the Broncos. In all fairness, I was not part of the offensive huddles nor did I see or read any post game comments from Boise State players or coaches. On the surface, this smacks of a game in which a higher ranked team raced to a big lead early and then gave up on the game.

I didn’t see this in any of TCU’s victories this season. They jumped out to leads and finished strong, beating teams soundly. This game will be another close game but it will be the first loss for Boise State, not for TCU.

TCU 24, Boise State 17