BCS Preview: National Championship Game

On January 7th, the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Texas Longhorns will collide in Pasadena to decide which team shall hoist the crystal football as BCS National Champions. With all due respect to Boise State and TCU (the only other teams that have a chance to finish the season undefeated), this game will determine the National Champion. Could TCU or Boise State go punch for punch with Alabama and Texas? Possibly. However, they are the teams that the BCS formula decided upon and I for one do not disagree with that.

Alabama played the 20th hardest schedule in the country this year and Texas’ schedule was ranked 44th. For those who say that TCU or Boise State belonged in this game, explain away their relative schedule strengths, 84th and 98th, respectively. If there was a playoff system in college football, they would have their shot but as long as the BCS is here, if they are going to play schedules like that, they have to be better than the big boys and this year, all they did was break even with the big boys.

Both of these teams have had close games and both have had games where they were seemingly the only one on the field. Alabama’s biggest scare, of course, came against Tennessee when they needed Defensive Tackle Terrence Cody to block not one, but two field goals to preserve their 12-10 victory. For the Texas miracle, one needs only look back to the 5th of December in the Big XII Championship Game. They needed a 46 yard field goal as time expired to beat Nebraska 13-12 in a game that I would argue, neither offense deserved to win. Colt McCoy had arguably his worst game of the season and the Nebraska offense gained just 106 yards, lost 64 yards due to penalties, and converted just 2-16 third downs.

The difference between them is what they’ve done for me lately. With all due respect to Bo Pelini and the program he has put together over the past few years, they will not be mistaken for one of the best teams ever and they stymied the Longhorn offense, holding them to 13 points and 202 yards (well below their season averages of 40.7 points and 432.4 yards per game). Given that Alabama has a very good defense and a monster of a defensive tackle; this does not bode well for the Longhorns.

On the other hand, Alabama played against one of the best college football dynasties the game has ever seen. The Florida Gators went 48-7 the past four years, won two SEC titles, and two national titles and on the 5th of December, Alabama humiliated the Gators 32-13. The biggest reason that this bodes ill for the Longhorns is that their offense centers around Colt McCoy whereas the Gators offense is run by Tebow but centers on having too many playmakers for you to cover at once.

And now that I’ve tipped my hand as to who I think will win, let’s get onto the other sections of this post…

By the Numbers

This game features two offenses that have been somewhat streaky this year and two defenses that have been nothing short of dominant. In rushing yards allowed, they finished number one (Texas) and two (Alabama). In total yards allowed, they finished number two (Alabama) and number three (Texas). In turnover margin, they finished fifth (Alabama) and ninth (Texas). In other words, statistically speaking, these two defenses are difficult to separate from one another.

The Alabama Crimson Tide allowed more than 20 points just twice this season and allowed fewer than 10 points 6 times. The only thing that gives me pause when it comes to the Tide’s chances is the fact that their offense has disappeared at times this year. For a four game stretch that encompassed their games against Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, and LSU, the most points they scored in that stretch was 24 and they averaged just 19.5 points. However, they appear in this post because their defense never allowed more than 15 in that stretch and allowed just 34 points in those 4 games.

The Longhorns are built more around their offense than their defense and yet, they had one of the best defensive units in the country, statistically speaking. While they did allow 14 or fewer points 9 times this year, they also gave up 39 points to Texas A&M, the lone aberration of their season.

Offensively, the Horns failed to put 30 points on the board just twice, in their wins over Oklahoma (16-13) and Nebraska (13-12). If you take those two games out, they averaged 45.5 points per game.

Why the Longhorns Will Win

Colt McCoy. As important as Tim Tebow has been to the Gators’ success the past few years, Colt McCoy has been just as important to Texas’. He threw for 3,512 yards and 27 touchdowns but also ran for 348 yards (2nd highest total on the team) and added 3 rushing touchdowns.

As McCoy goes, the entire offense goes. As I mentioned before, there were only two games in which the Longhorns scored fewer than 20 points. In those two games, Colt McCoy’s passer ratings were 84.5 and 81.8 (compared with a season average of 147.5).

If he is able to get into a rhythm and is able to complete passes against the Alabama secondary, they have a good chance to win the game. If he doesn’t, they won’t.

Why the Crimson Tide Will Win

They have all the momentum right now. Texas backed into the national title game with what was nearly one of the more boneheaded plays by Heisman finalist Colt McCoy. On the other hand, Alabama played what was probably their most complete game this year in their handling of Florida and it was in that game that they showed what they are capable of.

Their biggest liability this year has been the quarterback play of junior Greg McElroy. His job for most of this year was to stay out of the way of sophomore Mark Ingram’s successful Heisman season. In the SEC championship against one of the best defenses in the country, Nick Saban put the ball in McElroy’s hands and told him to win them the game. He went 12-18 for 239 yards and a touchdown. He played with poise that the Tide haven’t seen this year and if he is able to play like that in national title game, the Texas defense will be in serious trouble.

On top of McElroy’s emergence as a leading quarterback, they have the most recent Heisman Trophy winner in Mark Ingram. The sophomore rushed for 1,562 yards and 15 touchdowns while catching 30 passes out of the backfield for 322 yards and 3 more touchdowns. He is the type of dynamic playmaker that can break open the game with one play, such as his 69 yard catch and run late in the first half against Florida.

If both Ingram and McElroy are on, it’ll be a long night for Longhorns fans.

The Verdict

From the beginning of this season, the three teams that everyone talked about with regards to a national championship were Florida, Alabama, and Texas. Of those three, Florida already had two titles in three years and perhaps didn’t have as much motivation as the others. Many people say Texas was robbed of a chance to play for a national title a year ago and used that as motivational fuel all year. Alabama used the end of their dream 2008 season (a loss to Florida followed by a devastating loss to Utah in the Sugar Bowl) to fuel their 2009 season.

The difference is that Texas has had to prevent themselves from slipping up while Alabama has been tested week in and week out. Texas played 2 BCS top 30 teams, neither of which was in the top 10. Alabama played 7 teams in the top 30, 2 of which were in the top ten.

All of this points to the fact that because Sam Bradford played very little this year, Texas hasn’t been pushed, and therefore hasn’t had to push back. Alabama has and they are playing the best football of the year at the end of the year. Roll Tide Roll.

Alabama 27, Texas 14