Major League Baseball is almost upon us once again and like I did recently with the NFL, I’m going to rank the 30 teams. Again, you must keep this in mind; I’m not ranking them according to who I think is the best team right now. I’m ranking them according to this mindset; if I was able to take over any franchise for the next 3-5 years, which would I want to take over?
This also is not a ranking of my favorite teams. Purely from a baseball standpoint, which franchise would I want to run with the general direction that they are going. This is a big reason why the winningest team in the past four seasons ranks 9th in these power rankings.
Along with every team, there will be a won-lost record but that is the team’s average record over the past four years. I’m also presenting two indications of the quality of the team’s hitting and pitching over that time span in the form of percentile ranks for OPS and ERA. I know these aren’t necessarily the best indicators of overall performance but they can be informative. For instance, you’d expect a team that is in the 56th percentile for OPS and the 82nd percentile for ERA to have a better record than a team that is in the 40th percentile and 4th percentile, respectively. Sure enough, the Philadelphia Phillies have had an average record of 93.3-68.8 over the past four years with three playoffs appearances while the Cleveland Indians have had an average record of 70.5-91.5 and haven’t been to the playoffs. More than anything else, these percentile ranks can give an indication of where a team’s strengths lie.
THE “MONEY MEANS NOTHING!!!” DIVISION
1 – Las Angeles Angels of Anaheim
88.0-74.0
57.8, 51.8
In a lot of ways, it’s somewhat difficult to separate the three teams in this division but first and foremost, why am I ranking these three teams, with a combined 2 playoff appearance in the past four years, ahead of three teams that have won the World Series, another three that have appeared in a World Series, and the nine winningest teams from just last year?
Remember, these rankings are basically which franchise I’d like to run for the next 3-5 years. The Angels, Blue Jays, and Dodgers have shown in the last year or so (more recently for the Dodgers and Blue Jays) that they are financially committed to building a winning team and hopefully sustaining it over a long term. Nothing helps a front office build a consistent winner quite like an ownership group with deep pockets who isn’t afraid to write checks and make mistakes. In a lot of ways, that is what made the Yankees and Red Sox so successful in the late ‘90’s and through most of the ‘00’s. Both teams made mistakes and spent a ton of money but they were perennial World Series contenders and sold out their stadiums far more often than not.
Now, the question becomes, why the Angels first? Their competition. The Athletics are on the upswing but they aren’t on the same level as the Angels. The Mariners aren’t worth mentioning in this conversation. The single biggest acquisition the Angels made this offseason was poaching arguably the best player from (you guessed it) the Texas Rangers. With a full season of Mike Trout hitting in front of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton (assuming he resembles his overall season line from 2012 and not the feast or famine that was his season), the Angels should score plenty of runs and win the AL West relatively easily.
2 – Toronto Blue Jays
78.5-83.5
60.0, 18.6
The iron was hot and the Blue Jays struck… and then they struck again. The Yankees are old and three key contributors are coming back from serious injuries (Rodriguez, Jeter, and Rivera). Tampa Bay had to trade away one of their best pitchers in the hope that they upgraded their lineup. Baltimore’s run differential doesn’t say they will replicate last year’s 94 wins and the Red Sox are still putting together the pieces and nobody knows what to expect from them yet.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays acquired a Cy Young winner (RA Dickey), a guy who could win a Cy Young if he’s healthy (Josh Johnson), a dependable lefty who has thrown 200+ innings for the past 12 years (Mark Buehrle), a guy two years removed from a great season and a year removed from a “better than what we have” season (Reyes), and a guy who hit .346/.390/.516 last year… with a sizable asterisk (Melky Cabrera).
If Dickey can prevent any serious falloff, Johnson can stay healthy, and Romero can get back to his 2011 form (15-11, 2.92 ERA), this team will be good. If Reyes can improve upon his .287/.347/.433 from a year ago and Jose Bautista can stay healthy and play like he did in 2010-11, this team could be great.
3 – Los Angeles Dodgers
85.8-76.0
34.6, 89.4
The Dodgers made incredible noise last year by acquiring every bad contract except for Alex Rodriguez’s. However, this is a team with significant question marks. Adrian Gonzalez played decently for the Dodgers but they need him to be an All-Star. Nobody knows what to expect from Carl Crawford after missing most of last season and who knows what Josh Beckett will bring. Throw Zach Greinke into a high pressure situation and everyone holds their breath (apparently).
If they all perform as they are capable (you know, before Boston sent them packing to get out from under their contracts), the Dodgers could be very good. This could also turn into a train wreck very quickly. With so many question marks, why are they so high?
Money. Los Angeles is the second largest city in the US, the media market is huge, and finally the Dodgers have an ownership group that stands poised to exploit it and pour that money into the team. Within the next few years, the Dodgers will have in place a TV contract that will pay the team an estimated $250 million dollars each year. I’m sure that there are 29 other GM’s that would love to have those resources backing them up.
WORLD SERIES CONTENDERS
4 – San Francisco Giants
90.0-72.0
30.0, 100.0
The Giants have played six postseason series in the past four years and have won all of them, including the 2010 and 2012 World Series. They are not the type of team with the resources to compete every single year but they retool quickly and they have an innovative front office and a manager that isn’t afraid to try some strange things. When the players buy in, that’s a powerful combination.
The two most important people to their more recent World Series run, in my opinion, were Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum. It would have been easy for a player to become a malcontent when making $18 million a year and getting left off a World Series roster, as Zito was in 2010. However, he worked out during the series in case he was needed and this past postseason, he got some spot starts and pitched effectively, giving the Giants some much needed depth in their rotation due to the struggle of… Tim Lincecum. Last year was awful for the two-time Cy Young winner but when he was moved to the bullpen to start the postseason, he never pouted (as least not publicly) and he accepted his role as a chance to help the team. He threw 6.1 shutout innings against the Reds, lost a spot start against the Cardinals, and then pitched 4.2 hitless innings in two relief appearances in the World Series, walking just one and striking out 8.
That kind of professionalism always helps winning teams stay on the winning side of things. The fact that it came from two of their highest paid players makes it even more significant. And I haven’t even mentioned Buster Posey, whose .336/.408/.549 line with 24 home runs and very good defense was good enough for the NL MVP award.
It’s a good time to be a Giants fan.
5 – Washington Nationals
76.5-85.3
43.1, 53.2
It is a great time for our nation’s capital but it is a depressing time to be a Montreal Expos fan. This is very much like the Cleveland Browns fans watching their team flee to Baltimore and then winning the Super Bowl only a few years later.
Their record over the past few years isn’t that impressive but that includes their 98-64 record from a year ago; this is definitely a team on the upswing. Bryce Harper is poised to breakout (because 5.0 WAR at age 19 isn’t breaking out?) and they get to look forward to a full season of Stephen Strasburg. Add to that a repeat performance from Gio Gonzalez and the sky is the limit for this team.
6 – Atlanta Braves
90.0-72.0
42.2, 95.0
No matter which way you slice it, two of the best four teams in the National League reside in the east so despite the fact that it will be difficult for them to keep up with the Nationals, I very much like the Braves’ chances to consistently compete for if not win the wildcard (especially now that there are two of them). They had the third best record in the NL last year and got better with the additions of BJ and Justin Upton.
On top of all this, the Braves have had one of the best, most stable front offices in all of baseball over the past twenty years and when it comes to dealing with the unexpected over the course of a six month long season, the importance of this cannot be underestimated.
7 – Detroit Tigers
87.5-74.8
67.8, 45.2
If someone had offered me an over/under of 95 wins for the Tigers last year, I would have been sorely tempted to pick the over. With Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder in the middle of the lineup and Justin Verlander heading the rotation, their roster looked very good on paper.
They never seemed to get into a good groove and ended up at 88-74… right in line with their average record over the past four years. The biggest piece of evidence that I have in support of the Tigers is the rest of the AL Central. The average record of the other four teams in the division the past four years is 74.9-87.1 with two playoff appearances and two series defeats.
The White Sox are a bit of an enigma, the Twins are reeling compared to their height of several years ago, the Royals are perpetually rebuilding, and the Indians are right down there with them.
The Tigers have young stars under contract for a long time (especially once they open the Justin Verlander Bank and hand him the keys) and that should be good enough to get them into the playoffs (barring injury) with relative ease.
8 – St. Louis Cardinals
88.8-73.3
63.3, 81.1
Over the past four years, only the Yankees have played in more playoff series than the Cardinals (8 to 7 – the Rangers have also played in 7). They simply seem to be one of those organizations that always competes and if you get into a five or seven game series with them, they are always dangerous. Their percentile score of 144.8 (combined percentiles above) ranks second over the past four years, again only behind the Yankees.
Unfortunately, a large part of me ranking them this high was the thought that they would finally get Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter healthy in the same season. It was recently announced that Chris Carpenter would likely miss the entire 2013 season and – nothing is final yet – will likely retire due to nerve damage in his right shoulder. I’ve always been a fan of Carpenter and I believe this is a loss for the whole game, not just the Cardinals.
As much as I’d love to count them out, they were just one step from the World Series and they were without Adam Wainwright for the entire season so now that he’s back, who knows where they’ll go or how good they’ll be? They have been consistently good over the past several years and they play in a division that isn’t the strongest (though it got stronger with the subtraction of the Astros) so I think they’ll be able to compete for a wild card spot again.
9 – New York Yankees
97.5-64.5
100.0, 55.4
How can the team that has won more games the past four years than any other and has a higher percentile total than any other team be ranked behind 8 other teams?
The fact of the matter is that we know less about this Yankees team heading into spring training than any other year in the past ten that I can think of. Derek Jeter pushed back Father Time once again last year, posting a line of .316/.362/.429 but then broke his ankle in the playoffs. How will he be coming back from that injury? Mariano Rivera was limited to 9 appearances due to a torn ACL suffered during batting practice (he wasn’t batting, he was out in the outfield). Given that he’s now 43, I’d imagine that coming back from that injury won’t be easy. For the first time since joining the Yankees, CC Sabathia failed to make 30 starts and pitched the fewest innings he’s recorded since 2006 with Cleveland. Is this an aberration or the beginning of his inevitable decline (he’ll turn 33 in July this year)?
Lastly, there is their prima dona, Alex Rodriguez. Much has been written on the subject of his decline over the past few years and it appears that the five years and $114 million left on his contract will be little more than an albatross around the Yankees’ collective neck.
Most importantly, all these injuries came at a time when the rest of the division is getting better and Hal Steinbrenner has decided that he doesn’t want to pay half the team’s payroll in luxury taxes. Ownership wants to get under $186 million in payroll before opening day 2014 (if I’m remembering correctly) to get back into the lower tax bracket when it comes to the luxury tax.
After that, it’s possible they will relapse back into their free spending days but I doubt it. With the efficiency present in Tampa Bay, the up-an-comings in Baltimore, the go-for-broke in Toronto, and the overall age of the Yankees’ stars, the next few years looks a little grim for the pinstripes.
PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
10 – Tampa Bay Rays
90.3-71.8
54.2, 77.2
It was difficult to rank the Rays below the Yankees but at the end of the day, the financial resources available in the Bronx are too lucrative to pass up. Despite back to back playoff appearance in 2010 and 2011 and a third straight year of winning 90+ games, the Rays drew just 1,559,681 fans, or just 19,255 per game. That’s the lowest attendance in the American League.
The biggest question mark for me is will Wil Myers be enough to make people forget about James Shields. Shields was 87-73 with a 3.89 ERA for the Rays in his seven years and the past two years appeared to be on the cusp of becoming one of the best pitchers in the league.
Their rotation will still be a strength with Cy Young winner David Price and if they get a full season from Evan Longoria, they’ll be in pretty decent shape. Fernando Rodney had a ludicrously good season as their closer so there will be some definite regression on that front.
Last year they ranked first in the AL with a 3.19 team ERA and Shields’ mark was actually above that. If they can pitch like that for the next few years, they’ll be in the mix in September every year.
11 – Cincinnati Reds
86.3-75.8
52.6, 59.8
The Reds have been to the playoffs twice in the past four years and didn’t make it past the wildcard round either time. Last year they beat the Giants twice on the road and then lost three straight at home to the eventual World Series champs.
They have a lot of talent and they’ve done well in the regular season the past few years but none of that success has translated to the postseason yet. Last year they won their division by 9 games and I could see a similar margin this year but to move up these rankings, they’ll have to make good on some of that promise.
On the field, getting more than 111 games out of Joey Votto will help their cause this coming season and Reds fans are hoping that Johnny Cueto’s 2012 performance is his new norm, not the exception. One question I’m forced to ask about the Reds is this; if their rotation pitched quite well last year (which they did) and Aroldis Chapman was more or less unhittable out of the bullpen (which he was), why would they mess with a good thing?
I understand that starters are more valuable than relievers due to the number of innings they pitch but I just can’t help but think that having his arm in the bullpen is the best thing for the Reds right now. If they didn’t have competent arms in the rotation, I can understand making the switch but for the most part, they are. I can’t help but think that Joba Chamberlain’s career was somewhat derailed because of his stint in the rotation and Eric Gagne’s time in the rotation was disastrous when compared to his time coming out of the pen.
Having said that, starters are more valuable than relievers and if Chapman can pitch anything close to as well as he did out of the pen, he could be one of the best starters in the NL.
12 – Texas Rangers
91.5-70.5
81.3, 51.6
In the past four years, the Rangers have won the AL West twice and finished second twice (once winning a wild card spot). They have played in the World Series not once, but twice. Having said that, the past year has not been kind to the Rangers
Their rotation has been decent and Yu Darvish showed he could compete at the highest level of baseball in the world. Neftali Feliz was good until injuries shut down his season in May.
The biggest problem is that not only did they lose arguably their best position player (Josh Hamilton), he then signed with the division rival Angels. Their most valuable player last year by far was Adrian Beltre and while he is under contract for four more years, he’s 33 now and not getting younger.
The Rangers have not gotten better this offseason and the Angels have. Add to that that the Athletics seem poised to overachieve and compete in this division over the next few years and the Rangers have gone from a team one strike away from a World Series title to a team that will be somewhat lucky to finish in the top two of its own division.
13 – Oakland Athletics
81.0-81.0
29.7, 74.3
The only team to win exactly half of their games over the past four years comes in just above the midway mark. This team definitely overachieved last year and the question is was it an aberration or the start of a new run of playoff appearances.
The offensive model they seem to be building is a bit on the hit-and-miss side, with lots of home runs and strikeouts. That approach can lead to very streaky play. However, their pitching has been good over the past several years and the rookies that littered their rotation a year ago are now a year older and (hopefully) smarter.
Most importantly, they are coming off a year in which they finished five games ahead of the Angels and one ahead of the Rangers. While I’d say the Angels improved and are the clear favorites, right now I’d say the Athletics are having a better offseason than the Rangers. Over the long run they can’t compete with the Rangers’ ownership group or their local TV revenue but it’s always possible to have a short run in the sun if the timing all works out and right now, it appears that circumstances are on the A’s side.
14 – Milwaukee Brewers
84.0-78.0
69.5, 26.7
The biggest advantage that the Brewers have going for them (the division they play in) was weakened considerably by the Astros moving to the AL West. They had just one starter throw as many as 150 innings last year and while Ryan Braun is a good person to build a lineup around, it appears that the questions about PED’s won’t go away anytime soon.
If we assume that they won’t compete for the NL Central title (which is a good assumption because they finished 14 games behind the Reds and certainly haven’t done enough this offseason to make up that gap) that means to make it to the playoffs, they have to finish ahead of two of these three teams; the Braves, Cardinals, and Dodgers (based on last year’s results). Not a good recipe for success.
15 – Chicago White Sox
82.8-79.3
51.3, 45.8
The White Sox are a bit of an interesting team. Their percentile ranks indicate they should be in the middle of the pack and their record – 14 games over .500 the past four years combined – backs this up. If Jack Peavy can pitch as he did last year and Chris Sale can build upon last year, they will have a chance to make some noise in the Central again.
An issue that I see is with their offense. Paul Konerko had a very good 2012 campaign but he’s going into his age 37 season and despite his amazing consistency, at some point age will rear its ugly head. Adam Dunn bounced back from his all-time-bad 2011 season with a decent (for him) .201/.333/.468 line with 41 home runs. Which Dunn will show up in 2013? If it’s the 2011 version, they could be sunk early in the season.
Just in case White Sox fans didn’t have enough to worry about, here are four numbers to fret about; 79, 111, 63, and 124. Those are the OPS+ figures for Alex Rios the past four years. He’s had two decent seasons in Chicago but the year that got him shipped out of Toronto and then his second full season in Chicago were terrible. How comfortable would you be when a guy who’s going to be in the middle of your batting order was 37% below league average and 24% above league average the past two seasons? Are you getting the borderline All-Star from 2012 who was worth 4.2 wins above replacement or the 2011 version that was 2.1 wins worse than a AAA replacement player but had a price tag of $12.5 million?
16 – Baltimore Orioles
73.0-89.0
45.4, 0.7
There’s a lot to like about the Orioles but I’m afraid that their peak will be lost due to bad timing in the division. They are ascending when the Red Sox and Yankees appear to be down, which is good. However, the Blue Jays are going for it will even more gusto and the Rays have been consistently good and are already in the rarified air of perennial playoff contenders (at least recently, that’s the case).
As you can see from the percentile ranks, their batting is ok, just below league average, but their pitching is atrocious, barely better than the worst in all of baseball. However, there is cause for optimism. In 2012, the Orioles 3.90 team ERA was the 6th best in the American League and their definite strength was their bullpen, as they had five pitchers who appeared in 50 or more games with ERA’s between 2.28 and 2.64 (accounting for 332.2 innings).
I would expect a certain amount of regression for this team in 2013 especially when you consider that their run differential indicated a record of 82-80. The fact that they did 11 games better was bolstered by their best-in-baseball records in one-run games (29-9) and extra-inning games (16-2). It’s always possible they’ll repeat that performance but statistically speaking, it’s unlikely.
17 – Minnesota Twins
77.5-84.8
47.8, 15.6
This might even be a bit high for the Twins. They are a team of two names that you know (Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau) and 23 other guys that you may or may not recognize. Unfortunately, Justin Morneau has missed 229 games the past four years and is nowhere near the player he was from 2006-08 when he won an MVP and finished 2nd and 20th the other two years.
Joe Mauer has more or less recovered from the injuries that limited him to 82 games in 2011 but the issue remains; how long will he be able to catch for the Twins? I know that he wants to but it’s an incredibly physically demanding position and the likelihood that he’ll be able to stay at catcher throughout his current contract is unlikely. That raises another problem because at $23 million a season and his current level of performance, he’s worth the money as a catcher but not as a first baseman or as a DH.
Most depressing for this team is the pitching staff. Once a strength, they are a shell of what they once were and it’s really not their fault. Brad Radke retired, Johan Santana was traded at what appears just the right time, and not Francisco Liriano is gone after not being able to come back from his own injuries and anchor the rotation.
The future is not bright for the Twins but they are a good franchise with a historically good front office so it’s entirely possible that they’ll be able to turn things around.
18 – Arizona Diamondbacks
77.5-84.5
55.8, 33.3
Most baseball experts think that they did fairly well for themselves this offseason, especially when you consider they gave up two player that were supposed to be franchise cornerstones for another 5+ years in Justin Upton and Chris Young.
However, we come back once again to their division. They are a definite step ahead of the Padres and Rockies (maybe two steps) but they are a definite step or two behind the Dodgers and Giants on the field and perhaps farther behind off the field. If you can’t match a team financially (like the Dodgers) you have to be able to beat them with smarts in the front office and that doesn’t appear to be the case.
In 2012 they went 81-81, ranked 5th in OPS and 9th in ERA. Honestly, I’d look for similar marks in 2013.
19 – Philadelphia Phillies
93.3-68.8
55.4, 81.5
Of the 15 teams with a winning (or .500) record over the past four years, only one ranks below the Phillies. Last year, the Phillies had 3 regulars who had an OPS+ over 100 (i.e. were better than league average hitters). Carlos Ruiz is a 33 year old catcher who has been a solid contributor for four years and took a big step forward last year. The Phillies have him under contract for 2013 at the reasonable rate of $5 million. Hunter Pence is gone. Chase Utley hasn’t played a full season since 2009 after having one of the best five year stretches from 2005-09 in the league. In that stretch, he accumulated 38.6 WAR but in the past three seasons his value has dropped from 5.7 to 3.7 to 2.9. Definitely good production but considering that it’s almost entirely limited by injuries , it’s a disturbing trend.
That’s it. Former MVP Jimmy Rollins was a below average hitter. Ryan Howard was a -1.2 WAR player last year coming back from his Achilles injury but he was only worth 1.1 WAR in 2010 and 0.9 in 2011. He has four years left on his contract extension worth $95 million with either a $23 million team option or a $10 million buyout in 2017.
On the pitching side, Cole Hamels was great and Cliff Lee was good but Roy Halladay wasn’t very good at all. If they want to turn around the downward spiral they’re heading into, I believe it depends on Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard.
Given the division they’re in, the strength of Washington and Atlanta, and the sheer amount of money they owe to Howard, Lee, Halladay, and Hamels, this franchise isn’t in a particularly good looking place right now.
REBUILDING
20 – Pittsburgh Pirates
67.5-94.3
18.1, 22.4
Twenty… straight… years. That’s really all you need to know when it comes to the state of the Pirates. The last time the Pittsburgh Pirates had a winning record was 1992.
Having said that, there are far more desperate situations in baseball right now (hence the reason that nine teams are ranked below the Pirates). Their ascent from losing 105 games (the most during this 20 year stretch) in 2010 to going 79-83 last year has been gradual but significant and to me, it says that there is hope on the horizon. I am always suspicious of a team that makes a sudden improvement. Granted sometimes it can be the sign of good things to come (1990 Braves finished in last place… and then won 14 straight division titles) but more often than not I believe a sudden improvement is followed by a regression to the mean.
However, when there is a period of relatively slow and steady growth in performance, I think it is more sustainable in the long run… as long as nobody does anything to derail it.
I see them finishing in third this coming season behind the Reds and Cardinals but if Andrew McCutchen can avoid the miserable finish he had a year ago, I could see them thinking playoffs within the next few years. If they’re going to do that though, they have to keep improving. Last year they were 11th in the NL in OPS and 8th in ERA. Those are not playoff caliber rankings.
21 – Boston Red Sox
85.8-76.3
87.6, 22.9
The Red Sox were the single biggest train wreck of last season and yet they somehow managed to extract themselves from beneath several crippling contracts and for that, I give their front office a ton of credit.
They still have some good players and several were limited by injuries a year ago. David Ortiz is coming back for two more years after a line of .318/.415/.611 as a 36 year old (wait, what?), Dustin Pedroia is still a solid player, and hopefully Jacoby Ellsbury can come back from a season where he was limited to 74 games and a .271/.313/.370 line that came a year after his .321/.376/.552 MVP-caliber season.
Their rotation is simply a mess right now. Jon Lester struggled last year, so did Clay Buchholz. Josh Beckett is gone, Aaron Cook was bad (and is currently a free agent), and the best news that can come out of last season (in the rotation) is that the Daisuke Matsuzaka experiment is over. It only cost the Red Sox $102 million over six years for a 50-37 record, a 4.52 ERA (and a 1.418 WHIP), and just 8.3 wins above a replacement pitcher.
The good news is they have a clean slate moving forward. They have a relatively new general manager and a new manager. They have young players that, when healthy, can form a core you can build around. Scouts around the league definitely have good things to say about the young players in their farm system. But…
They went 69-93 last year and were a train wreck. In a division with baseball’s biggest superpower (Yankees), one of the league’s best run teams (Rays), a surprise playoff entrant from a year ago (Orioles), and a team that is tired of playing third fiddle for two decades (Blue Jays), the immediate future doesn’t look particularly bright for the Red Sox.
22 – San Diego Padres
78.0-84.0
15.3, 70.4
What does it tell you when a team that plays in arguably the best pitchers park in the league puts up an ERA+ 9% lower than average as the Padres did a year ago?
15 different pitchers started a game for the Padres last year and all but two of them started at least five games. Only two pitchers managed to throw more than Anthony Bass’ 97 innings.
In the lineup, Chase Headley played very well, accumulating 6.0 WAR but he is going to become more and more expensive for the Padres to hold onto. Already his salary increased by more than $5 million this offseason and if he keeps up his current production, it’s just going to go higher. Carlos Quentin played well but was limited to 86 games due to injury.
Last year they won 76 games and finished fourth in the NL West, 10 games behind the Dodgers, 18 games behind the Giants, and 12 games out of a playoff spot. Anyone who thinks they’ve done enough and have enough to overcome those deficits is just wrong. With the Giants winning and the Dodgers new checkbooks, the Padres are competing for third place for the foreseeable future.
23 – Colorado Rockies
78.0-84.0
71.6, 11.2
Look at that last paragraph about the Padres and consider this… they finished 12 games ahead of the Rockies.
The Rockies’ offense should be fine. Carlos Gonzalez is a very good player, Dexter Fowler had a very good year in 2012, and Troy Tulowitzki should return to his pre injury form when he was an MVP candidate.
None of that changes the atrocious state of their pitching staff. Because of Jim Tracy’s unconventional six man rotation and pitch counts on starters, only one starter threw 100 innings, and it was Jeff Francis with 113. Their 5.22 ERA was the worst in the NL – before I go further, here’s why ERA can be misleading and ERA+ is a good metric. The Rockies team ERA was 5.22 while the Padres’ was 4.01. Despite that, the Rockies had a better ERA+ (92 to 91) because of the difference in home ballparks. Last year, Baseball Reference rated Petco Park at 93 for pitchers (under 100 favors pitchers, over 100 favors batters) while Coors Field was rated at 125.
Their pitching staff is terrible. Their lineup might be enough to win them 75-80 games but they’ll go no further than that and it seems like Coors Field is reverting back to the pre-humidor days of causing pitchers nightmares. With the way it’s treating pitchers right now, it’ll be hard to get any pitchers to want to come to the Rockies.
24 – New York Mets
75.0-87.0
35.6, 44.7
Many people are praising the package that the Mets got in return for Cy Young winner RA Dickey. However, I feel fairly confident that that will be a so-so consolation for the fans that actually come to Mets games this year to watch a fourth place team.
Luckily for the Mets, they will not be a last place team in the 2013 version of the NL East… the Marlins made sure of that.
In my mind, the trade of RA Dickey signifies that they are ready to embark upon a rebuilding plan and are getting what they can for their most valuable assets. This really begs the question; how long with David Wright call Queens home?
He’s by far their best player and they aren’t going anywhere fast. Wright is 30 and is coming off the second best season (by WAR) of his career. If there is going to be a time to trade him, now is that time. The team is bad and you’ve just signaled you’re sacrificing the present to save the future by trading Dickey. If there was ever a time to incur the wrath of a fan base by trading the most popular player, now would be that time.
25 – Chicago Cubs
72.5-89.3
36.1, 35.5
What can I say about the Cubs that hasn’t already been said? Alfonso Soriano played decently last year with a .262/.322/.499 line and 32 home runs… but he was paid $18 million and he’s owed another $18 million in 2013 and 2014. He led a lineup that was in the top ten in the NL (out of 16) in just two offensive categories; hit by pitch (9th with 43) and times caught stealing (5th with 45).
Their pitching staff was better than their lineup but that was boosted by Ryan Dempster’s performance which, after he got traded to the Rangers, appears to have been bolstered by the National League and the Central division.
Last year they went 61-101 and I don’t see much better records in their future especially since the one team worse than them is no longer in their division.
26 – Kansas City Royals
68.8-93.3
46.9, 0.0
A lot of people are high on the Royals and with the addition of a bona fide Cy Young contender in James Shields headlining their offseason, it’s easy to see why. However, I’ll believe it when I see it.
The Royals have averaged 68.8 wins the past four years and have the worst team ERA in the entire league. There’s a lot to like about this team and I could even see them sneaking into second place in the AL Central because of the low quality of the division but here’s the problem; if they can’t overtake the Tigers (which I don’t think they can), they’ll be competing with the Orioles, Rangers, Rays, and Angels. Those four teams won 93, 93, 90, and 89 games, respectively, in 2012 and two of them missed the playoffs. For the next several years, I believe it’s going to take a win total in the low to mid 90’s to make the playoffs and Kansas City hasn’t won that many games since they won 92 games in 1989.
Again, I’ll believe it when I see it.
27 – Cleveland Indians
70.5-91.5
39.7, 3.6
Ubaldo Jimenez was supposed to anchor this rotation for years to come (he is only 28 after all). However, since his great 2010 season (buoyed by the tremendous first half and his 15-1 start), he’s been beyond terrible. The past two years, Jimenez is 19-30 with a 5.03 ERA.
This offseason they’ve made some upgrades to their team but after they lost 94 games and posted the worst ERA in the AL and the second worst OPS, two things are assured; they can only go up and they still have a long ways to go.
28 – Seattle Mariners
72.0-90.0
0.0, 64.9
I give the Mariners all the credit in the world for holding onto Felix Hernandez, even if it is going to cost them $175 million. On top of that, they are now done with Chone Figgins as they basically paid him to go away. Considering that he “earned” $36 million for three years in which he hit .227/.302/.283 and was worth 1.6 wins below a replacement player, I’m sure Mariners fans are happy to see him go.
The Mariners are hoping for big seasons from new acquisitions Kendrys Morales and Michael Morse and they are hoping that moving the fences in at Safeco Field will boost everyone’s morale… and offense.
I like the direction of the team but they are in a very good division and their farm system hasn’t produced much in recent years so trading is difficult and luring top free agents is tough because of the terrible hitting reputation (backed up by statistical analysis) that Safeco has. Only time will tell if moving the fences in will help more than it’ll hurt.
They could put together a special season and compete for a playoff spot or they could have a few key injuries and lose 100 games. I was born and raised two hours north of Seattle so this ranking hurts but they have to show me something other than King Felix before I can move them up.
29 – Houston Astros
65.3-96.8
15.2, 17.6
It says a lot when the worst team of the past four years (by won-lost record) and by far the worst team from a year ago (55-107, six games worse than the second worst team) isn’t even the worst team in these rankings.
The one thing the Astros have going for them is they are extraordinarily young. That’s it. They are moving from a decent division to a division with tons of star power and two enormous media markets in Los Angeles and Dallas. They are going to lose a lot in the AL West. I feel very sad when I think about a team that featured a few of my favorite players ever in Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, and Roy Oswalt, and nowadays the best thing I can say about the state of their franchise is they are done paying Carlos Lee his $100 million.
30 – Miami Marlins
77.0-85.0
39.9, 44.8
It’s truly not often that I’m at a loss for words. You can ask just about anyone who knows me and they’ll tell you how difficult it can be to get a word into a conversation with me. However, the Miami Marlins have me at a loss.
They won a World Series in 1997 and then seemingly traded the best pieces away before the champagne was dry. After a few terrible years, their farm system came through and provided a young and dynamic core that won the World Series again in 2003, with a 23 year old Josh Beckett throwing an incredible 2-hit shutout in Yankee Stadium in Game 6 to clinch the series. It’s not a game I’ll easily forget. After the dust settled from that team, again, all the biggest names were gone.
This time was especially egregious because the Marlins roped Miami into building them a $650 million stadium that the Marlins filled with high priced free agents that were supposed to compete with the Phillies and Braves. Unfortunately for everyone, the free agents didn’t quite come through, Josh Johnson again couldn’t stay healthy, and while the Phillies weren’t as good as expected and the Braves were, it was the Nationals that took hold of the division with a grip that they’re threatening not to relinquish any time soon. Punting on the near future, the Marlins dealt every player that was worth anything (except for Giancarlo Stanton) to the Blue Jays this offseason. They will finish last in the NL East this upcoming season and it might take a minor miracle to finish anywhere other than last for the next few years.
I don’t work in the Marlins’ front office and I don’t live in Miami. Maybe the people there have never truly supported the Marlins the way they should. That doesn’t justify the Marlins demanding a new stadium, getting it, and then committing to several years of losing after one bad 69-93 season. If Miami can’t support baseball, the Marlins should have moved.
There you have it, my initial MLB rankings. I’m not sure how often I’ll update them (probably only after a season or a significant even such as an injury or a retirement or a trade) but they will be updated.
Until next time, enjoy the fact that baseball is back once again!
Saturday, February 23, 2013
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Prop Bets Revisited
Before Super Bowl XLVII, I examined a few prop bets that might be worth taking. How’d I do? Not terribly well… here are the results:
THERE WILL NOT BE A TOUCHDOWN
(+20,000)
This was a supreme longshot and I knew it. If it turned into a kicking contest, I could have increased my money ten times without winning any other bets. Alas, there were more than 0 touchdowns scored… in fact, there were 7.
Bet Result = -5
WHAT COLOR GATORADE/LIQUID WILL BE DUMPED ON THE WINNING COACH?
(RED +750)
If I’m not mistaken, John Harbaugh still hasn’t had a cooler full of ice cold liquid dumped over his head (mostly because champagne usually doesn’t come in coolers the way Gatorade does). I’d love to say that means that I push with my bet but I seriously doubt that’s the way Vegas works.
Bet Result = -5
COLIN KAEPERNICK WILL WIN THE MVP
(+175)
I feel pretty good about this one even though it didn’t pan out. He threw one really bad interception and looked like a deer in headlights at times but overall, for his 10th career start, he played very well. He went 16-28 with 302 yards and threw for one TD in addition to that one interception. He also ran the ball 7 times for 62 yards and a touchdown. If he had managed to sneak a pass to Michael Crabtree on that 4th and five, this would have been in the win column for me.
Bet Result = -5
REFERENCES TO THE HARBOWL, HARBAUGH BOWL, OR SUPERBAUGH
OVER 2.5 (-110)
Overall, CBS had a very straight-laced, professional broadcast of the Super Bowl and I shouldn’t have expected anything else. I didn’t actually count the references but I didn’t hear a single one so I feel safe in saying that CBS didn’t go for the cheap angle on this game and treated it like the momentous occasion that it was (you know… the SUPER BOWL).
I still think that if Fox was broadcasting it, the over/under would have been at a dozen and I still would have taken the over.
Bet Result = -20
WILL THERE BE A DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS TOUCHDOWN?
NO (-200)
Ouch, Jacoby Jones… ouch. Everyone knows when you’re that deep you take a knee. Oh well, it was a great play.
Bet Result = -20
WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 4TH DOWN CONVERSION?
YES (-250)
There were three 4th down “attempts” in the Super Bowl and none of the three were successful. I really figured that one of the following scenarios would play out:
- A 4th and short around the 40 yard line. A 57 yard field goal or a short yardage play with two very good running games? Seems like an easy decision – never happened.
- Someone trying to be clever. This actually did happen in the form of a fake field goal on 4th and 9 deep in 49ers territory. Were it not for a great play by Patrick Willis getting in Justin Tucker’s way (while being blocked), this would have pushed me into the win column on this bet.
- Desperation. I figured that one team would be driving late in the game with the chance to win. That part came true. However, I figured a 4th down play would occur at midfield, not at the 5 yard line. At midfield, the defense has to defend 3,180 square yards of territory. From the five yard line, that number shrinks to 795, exactly one fourth the space. I remember seeing a replay of one of the plays from the five when Kaepernick rolled out to his right and threw incomplete to Crabtree; the endzone was a mass of white jerseys and every single helmet was looking right at him. Very difficult circumstances in which to gain five yards.
So between the Ravens’ fake field goal, the Ravens’ goal line stand, and the Ravens’ decision to give the 49ers 2 points, I came up just short on this one.
Bet Result = -15
WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 2 POINT CONVERSION?
NO (-500)
I guess I can thank Ed Reed being offsides and the refs not calling it. Oh well, a win is a win. For whatever reason, I felt that Jim Harbaugh got a little timid in the Super Bowl while John Harbaugh might have gotten more aggressive. I felt like the fake field goal put Jim on his heels and set the tone for the rest of the game.
Bet Result = +4 (this is my profit and does not include the actual bet)
JOE FLACCO WILL BE THE MVP
(+225)
Flacco went 22-33 for 287 yards and threw three touchdowns but beyond that, he just seemed to be in control. When the 49ers started to come back after the power outage, Flacco never panicked and while he only led the Ravens to 6 second half points (don’t forget that he had nothing to do with the first 7 points of the second half), he made some critical throws that prolonged drives and kept the surging 49ers offense off the field. He deserves every bit of this award. Yes, Jacoby Jones had a great game in the few touches he had and Anquan Boldin made some spectacular catches at huge moments but the constant was Flacco throwing the ball.
When you factor in the fact that Ray Rice carried the ball 20 times for 59 yards and fumbled at a key moment, Flacco’s performance becomes even more important.
Bet Result = +11.25
WILL THERE BE A SAFETY?
YES (+900)
This was the cherry on top of my picks and at the time it happened, I didn’t even realize it; I didn’t remember laying a bet on a safety. Thinking of the strategy that went into that play, there were many different things that the Ravens could have done and it’d be hard to find fault with any of them.
However, the decision to take a safety was not the masterful stroke. The decision to have punter Sam Koch run around for a while wasn’t it either. It was his instructions to his offensive line, who did everything but tackle the 49ers punt rush team. If they don’t call a penalty, then Koch runs around and takes 8 seconds off the clock.
If they did call a penalty though, there are two possible outcomes. If the penalty occurred outside the endzone, the 49ers would have to decline since accepting it would mean the Ravens get to line up to punt again with 4 seconds on the clock. Declining the penalty makes the safety stand up. If the penalty occurred in the endzone, then it would be a safety. Holding is not a penalty that causes a stoppage of the clock so it still would have wound until Koch stepped out of the endzone.
In other words, blatantly committing holding on every single 49ers rusher had two end results. Re-punting from the 4 yard line with 4 seconds left or a safety with 4 seconds left. It would have been virtually impossible for the Ravens to lose unless Koch fumbled the snap and it didn’t squirt out the back of the endzone.
In a nutshell, this was a former special teams’ coach (John Harbaugh) who clearly dotted every “i” and crossed every “t” for the single most important play of the game.
Bet Result = +45
NET RESULTS
All told, I wagered 100 simoleons on nine different wagers varying in amount from 5 up to 20. I got only three correct but considering that one of them paid off to the tune of 9:1, I actually ended up losing just 9.75 simoleons. For the first 59 minutes and 56 seconds of a 60 minute game, it looked very much like I was going to lose well over half of the money I put into this thought exercise but the longshot on a safety paid off.
I hope you didn’t lose too much wagering on the Super Bowl and I certainly hope you didn’t lose anything following the fake bets I placed in my previous post. Over the next few weeks I’m going to write one more time about my re-thought power rankings in the NFL and then I’ll come out with my first MLB power rankings heading into the 2013 season.
Until then, enjoy the NBA… wait, that doesn’t sound right…
Until then, enjoy the NHL… that’s even worse…
Until then, go hug your loved ones.
THERE WILL NOT BE A TOUCHDOWN
(+20,000)
This was a supreme longshot and I knew it. If it turned into a kicking contest, I could have increased my money ten times without winning any other bets. Alas, there were more than 0 touchdowns scored… in fact, there were 7.
Bet Result = -5
WHAT COLOR GATORADE/LIQUID WILL BE DUMPED ON THE WINNING COACH?
(RED +750)
If I’m not mistaken, John Harbaugh still hasn’t had a cooler full of ice cold liquid dumped over his head (mostly because champagne usually doesn’t come in coolers the way Gatorade does). I’d love to say that means that I push with my bet but I seriously doubt that’s the way Vegas works.
Bet Result = -5
COLIN KAEPERNICK WILL WIN THE MVP
(+175)
I feel pretty good about this one even though it didn’t pan out. He threw one really bad interception and looked like a deer in headlights at times but overall, for his 10th career start, he played very well. He went 16-28 with 302 yards and threw for one TD in addition to that one interception. He also ran the ball 7 times for 62 yards and a touchdown. If he had managed to sneak a pass to Michael Crabtree on that 4th and five, this would have been in the win column for me.
Bet Result = -5
REFERENCES TO THE HARBOWL, HARBAUGH BOWL, OR SUPERBAUGH
OVER 2.5 (-110)
Overall, CBS had a very straight-laced, professional broadcast of the Super Bowl and I shouldn’t have expected anything else. I didn’t actually count the references but I didn’t hear a single one so I feel safe in saying that CBS didn’t go for the cheap angle on this game and treated it like the momentous occasion that it was (you know… the SUPER BOWL).
I still think that if Fox was broadcasting it, the over/under would have been at a dozen and I still would have taken the over.
Bet Result = -20
WILL THERE BE A DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS TOUCHDOWN?
NO (-200)
Ouch, Jacoby Jones… ouch. Everyone knows when you’re that deep you take a knee. Oh well, it was a great play.
Bet Result = -20
WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 4TH DOWN CONVERSION?
YES (-250)
There were three 4th down “attempts” in the Super Bowl and none of the three were successful. I really figured that one of the following scenarios would play out:
- A 4th and short around the 40 yard line. A 57 yard field goal or a short yardage play with two very good running games? Seems like an easy decision – never happened.
- Someone trying to be clever. This actually did happen in the form of a fake field goal on 4th and 9 deep in 49ers territory. Were it not for a great play by Patrick Willis getting in Justin Tucker’s way (while being blocked), this would have pushed me into the win column on this bet.
- Desperation. I figured that one team would be driving late in the game with the chance to win. That part came true. However, I figured a 4th down play would occur at midfield, not at the 5 yard line. At midfield, the defense has to defend 3,180 square yards of territory. From the five yard line, that number shrinks to 795, exactly one fourth the space. I remember seeing a replay of one of the plays from the five when Kaepernick rolled out to his right and threw incomplete to Crabtree; the endzone was a mass of white jerseys and every single helmet was looking right at him. Very difficult circumstances in which to gain five yards.
So between the Ravens’ fake field goal, the Ravens’ goal line stand, and the Ravens’ decision to give the 49ers 2 points, I came up just short on this one.
Bet Result = -15
WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 2 POINT CONVERSION?
NO (-500)
I guess I can thank Ed Reed being offsides and the refs not calling it. Oh well, a win is a win. For whatever reason, I felt that Jim Harbaugh got a little timid in the Super Bowl while John Harbaugh might have gotten more aggressive. I felt like the fake field goal put Jim on his heels and set the tone for the rest of the game.
Bet Result = +4 (this is my profit and does not include the actual bet)
JOE FLACCO WILL BE THE MVP
(+225)
Flacco went 22-33 for 287 yards and threw three touchdowns but beyond that, he just seemed to be in control. When the 49ers started to come back after the power outage, Flacco never panicked and while he only led the Ravens to 6 second half points (don’t forget that he had nothing to do with the first 7 points of the second half), he made some critical throws that prolonged drives and kept the surging 49ers offense off the field. He deserves every bit of this award. Yes, Jacoby Jones had a great game in the few touches he had and Anquan Boldin made some spectacular catches at huge moments but the constant was Flacco throwing the ball.
When you factor in the fact that Ray Rice carried the ball 20 times for 59 yards and fumbled at a key moment, Flacco’s performance becomes even more important.
Bet Result = +11.25
WILL THERE BE A SAFETY?
YES (+900)
This was the cherry on top of my picks and at the time it happened, I didn’t even realize it; I didn’t remember laying a bet on a safety. Thinking of the strategy that went into that play, there were many different things that the Ravens could have done and it’d be hard to find fault with any of them.
However, the decision to take a safety was not the masterful stroke. The decision to have punter Sam Koch run around for a while wasn’t it either. It was his instructions to his offensive line, who did everything but tackle the 49ers punt rush team. If they don’t call a penalty, then Koch runs around and takes 8 seconds off the clock.
If they did call a penalty though, there are two possible outcomes. If the penalty occurred outside the endzone, the 49ers would have to decline since accepting it would mean the Ravens get to line up to punt again with 4 seconds on the clock. Declining the penalty makes the safety stand up. If the penalty occurred in the endzone, then it would be a safety. Holding is not a penalty that causes a stoppage of the clock so it still would have wound until Koch stepped out of the endzone.
In other words, blatantly committing holding on every single 49ers rusher had two end results. Re-punting from the 4 yard line with 4 seconds left or a safety with 4 seconds left. It would have been virtually impossible for the Ravens to lose unless Koch fumbled the snap and it didn’t squirt out the back of the endzone.
In a nutshell, this was a former special teams’ coach (John Harbaugh) who clearly dotted every “i” and crossed every “t” for the single most important play of the game.
Bet Result = +45
NET RESULTS
All told, I wagered 100 simoleons on nine different wagers varying in amount from 5 up to 20. I got only three correct but considering that one of them paid off to the tune of 9:1, I actually ended up losing just 9.75 simoleons. For the first 59 minutes and 56 seconds of a 60 minute game, it looked very much like I was going to lose well over half of the money I put into this thought exercise but the longshot on a safety paid off.
I hope you didn’t lose too much wagering on the Super Bowl and I certainly hope you didn’t lose anything following the fake bets I placed in my previous post. Over the next few weeks I’m going to write one more time about my re-thought power rankings in the NFL and then I’ll come out with my first MLB power rankings heading into the 2013 season.
Until then, enjoy the NBA… wait, that doesn’t sound right…
Until then, enjoy the NHL… that’s even worse…
Until then, go hug your loved ones.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Prop Bets and the Super Bowl
If you came up to me and handed me $100 to bet on this Sunday’s Super Bowl, how would I bet it? Before I answer this fun and completely hypothetical question, I want to say something that is anything but fun or hypothetical.
Gambling is dangerous. As radio host Colin Cowherd repeatedly says on his show on ESPN Radio, you should never gamble more than you can afford to lose. The fear of becoming addicting to gambling is one of the biggest reasons that I’ve only set foot in a casino a handful of times since turning 21. It’s fun to win and the hope that the next hand will turn around a spell of bad luck can be the easiest lie we ever tell ourselves.
Please think long and hard before placing any money on any sporting event. If you have second thoughts about the wisdom of making that bet, you probably shouldn’t be placing it. On that note, I consider myself more than a casual NFL fan but far less than an expert. I’m looking to have some fun with a few of the many available prop bets associated with the Super Bowl; I’m not looking to make money. If you use my suggestions to make bets, you are assuming all of the risk as I am not claiming to know anything more than your typical NFL fan. To reinforce the fact that this is completely a thought exercise, I will be placing bets in simoleons, the currency of Sim City.
PROP BETS
The Super Bowl very clearly shows that the United States is simply obsessed with two things; the Super Bowl itself and gambling. Before going any further, I’d suggest reading the following piece by Bill Barnwell on Grantland.com about a few various prop bets associated with this Super Bowl.
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8889349/bill-barnwell-prop-bets
There is one section that is especially important in this piece that I’m just going to quote here because before reading Barnwell’s piece, I had no idea what a line of +700 meant.
This is Barnwell’s explanation of what it means when the line of there being overtime is +700 and the line on there not being overtime is -1000:
“The "+700" figure next to "Yes" means that a bettor would receive $700 back in profit if they bet $100 on the event occurring before it actually happened. If you held this winning ticket with $100 and brought it to the counter, you would be handed back $800 (the $700 profit plus your initial $100 bet). The "-1000" figure next to "No" replaces the positive sign at the beginning with a negative sign; it indicates that you have to bet the dollar amount in question to win $100. In this case, if you wanted to win $100 betting against the possibility that there would be overtime, you would need to bet $1000. If there's no overtime, you would win $1100 (the $100 profit plus your initial $1000 bet).”
In other words, if you’re betting on a line with a negative number, you’re betting on an outcome that has a better than 50/50 chance of happening. In this context, it makes complete sense. NFL games rarely go to overtime so betting on there NOT being overtime and being correct only yields 10% on your bet.
MY BETS
In a lot of ways, I view the thought of determining which bets to make a lot like I would view a roulette table before the ball is rolled. It seems logical to me to bet smaller amounts on some longshot outcomes while betting larger amounts on more predictable outcomes to hopefully balance out the missed longshots and keep me above even. My goal is making these picks is not to maximize my potential outcome; it’s to maximize my outcome while minimizing my exposure to long odds bets.
Obviously, the list of bets that Barnwell puts forth isn’t comprehensive but I’m going to pick from that list and the list at one other website I found. First, the favorites:
MENTIONS OF THE “HARBAUGH BOWL, “HARBOWL”, OR “SUPERBAUGH”
OVER 2.5 (-110)
This seems like a complete no-brainer to me. Somehow there are people out there that think the broadcasters are going to resist using one of these catchy terms once or twice at most? While it might not be Phil Simms or Jim Nantz that goes here, you have to remember that the broadcast team includes the sideline reporters and the crew doing the halftime show. My bet is 20 simoleons on the over.
WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 2 POINT CONVERSION?
NO (-500)
In the first 46 Super Bowls, teams are 6-13 when going for two and those attempts have come in 8 different Super Bowls. However, for these purposes it must be considered that the San Diego Chargers were 2-2 in Super Bowl XXIX. Therefore, there has only been five Super Bowls with a successful two point conversion, or 10.9%.
A line of -500 implies that something has only an 83.3% chance of happening when, according to Super Bowl history, it actually has an 89.1% chance of happening. Statistically speaking, this bet feels like a very safe one. NFL coaches don’t like going for two unless they’re completely desperate and the game is basically over but the Super Bowl is the one venue where some coaches might be willing to put it on the line.
The only reason this bet doesn’t feel terribly secure is that all of the two point conversion attempts have occurred in the past 18 Super Bowls. If you use that as your sample size instead of all 46 Super Bowls, then the “yes” bet looks like a steal. This can be considered the “entertainment” portion of the post when you read along and watch me talk myself out of a particular bet…
They wouldn’t, would they? Two great running games, plus Colin Kaepernick… plus it looks like Jim Harbaugh is willing to take this kind of risk…
Oh, this is just icky… I’m putting 20 simoleons on No but this really doesn’t feel safe.
WILL THERE BE A DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS TOUCHDOWN?
NO (-200)
I’m just not feeling this one. I feel like the two quarterbacks are playing well enough right now to avoid a pick-6 (this is the point where I remember Kaepernick throwing one against Green Bay) and I don’t feel like either team has a particularly dynamic special teams to be able to bring one back.
I know that Baltimore gave up not one but two special teams TD’s against the Broncos but I saw a very different team in the second half against the Broncos and against the Patriots than I did in the first half in Denver. They’re playing very well and I just don’t see them giving up another one. Sometimes it feels like defensive and special teams TD’s come in bunches and I can’t help but think that for the 2012/13 playoffs, we’ve already seen the bunches.
On top of all that, -200 seems like a pretty favorable line. This seems like a fairly high reward for an outcome with a fairly high probability. Twenty simoleons on No.
WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 4TH DOWN CONVERSION?
YES (-250)
Between Jim Harbaugh’s aggressiveness (and his new QB) and the Ravens’ win-it-all-for-Ray mentality, I can’t imagine there not being at least one successful 4th down conversion. I know these are stout defenses but if one team gets down early, it would make this even more of a lock to come true. If there’s only one attempt the whole game, then I could see it going over to the “No” side, but if one team finds themselves in a situation where they need two scores in the final five minutes of regulation, there will definitely be a 4th down conversion. Fifteen simoleons on Yes.
THE UNDERDOGS
WILL THERE BE A SAFETY?
YES (+900)
I was looking up data on two point conversions and noticed there were quite a few safeties. In 46 Super Bowls, there have been 7, or one in 15.2% of the games. This line implies a 10% chance of something happening so I’ll be getting some pretty good value here.
I know that Barnwell points out that the two pass rushes are struggling coming into this game but their special teams are well coached (enough to pin the other team deep) and there are other ways to get a safety, such as in Super Bowl XLIII when the Steelers were called for holding in the endzone. It also happened last year when Tom Brady was called for intentional grounding in the endzone.
Crazy things can happen when a football bounces… five simoleons on Yes.
WHO WILL THE MVP BE?
COLIN KAEPERNICK (+175)
JOE FLACCO (+225)
I’m lumping these together for obvious reasons. In my opinion, these two have been the MVP’s of their teams’ respective Super Bowl runs and I see no reason why that should stop now. Many players will be important on both sides of the ball for both teams but nobody is more important than these two guys.
Let me put it another way; when I ponder all the ways in which both teams can win this game, there are few instances where I think a team can win with their quarterback playing poorly. Five simoleons on each.
WHAT COLOR WILL THE GATORADE (OR LIQUID) DUMPED ON THE WINNING COACH BE?
RED (+750)
This is an example of how ridiculous prop bets can be. Having said that, considering that just about every beverage maker (and especially those that specialize in sports drinks) have a flavor that is colored red, this feels like a steal to me. When you add in the fact that the 49ers primary color is red, it just reinforces the feeling to me that this is way too high of a line. Five simoleons on red.
THERE WILL BE NO TOUCHDOWNS
YES (+20,000)
This is the longshot of all longshots and it becomes even more so when you consider that these two teams have combined for 22 touchdowns in their combined 5 games. However, a bet offering a 200:1 payout when you have two very good defenses feels like a good longshot on which to put a little bit of action. To me, this is the equivalent of having a lucky number at the roulette table where you always put a penny at the table’s with a dollar minimum bet.
Working against me in this bet is the fact that the game is in the Superdome and, in case you haven’t seen him play, Colin Kaepernick is fast. Considering that next year’s Super Bowl is in East Rutherford, New Jersey, and the forecast for Sunday calls for highs of 37 degrees, 13 mph winds, and a few snow showers, this bet will look quite a bit better next year. However, there’s no way you’ll get a line of +20,000 next year in the Meadowlands. Five simoleons on nobody reaching the endzone.
SUMMARY
There you have it, I’m placed 100 simoleons on prop bets on the Super Bowl. Of my nine bets, only two are mutually exclusive (MVP race) so I could potentially go 8-9. If I were to do that with Flacco winning the MVP trophy, I’ll turn my 100 simoleons into 1,226.93 simoleons (1,224.43 if Kaepernick wins MVP).
Disregarding the fact that two of them are mutually exclusive, based solely on the lines, I have a 0.00014% chance of running the table. Of course, with my luck, Kaepernick will get hurt on the first series of the game and Alex Smith will come in and lead the 49ers to a thrilling victory, winning the MVP trophy by throwing four touchdowns (including the game winning two point conversion) after throwing a pick 6 to Ray Lewis to start his day. Jim Harbaugh will be doused in water (it’s better for you anyways) at the end of the game where the announcers forget to mention even once that Jim and John Harbaugh are related.
This, ladies and gentlemen, is why I don’t gamble.
As for who wins the game, the last I heard is that the 49ers are 4.5 point favorites. Part of me says that line is too generous and another part of me says it's not generous enough. My prediction is that it comes down to the kickers. David Akers (29-42 in the regular season) will miss his only attempt in the first quarter while rookie Justin Tucker (30-33 this year) while make three field goals, including one early in the fourth quarter, setting up Ray Lewis to make a huge tackle on fourth down inside of two minutes. Ravens 30-28.
Enjoy the Super Bowl everyone and I’ll be back next week to look at how well (or depressingly) these (fake) bets turned out.
Gambling is dangerous. As radio host Colin Cowherd repeatedly says on his show on ESPN Radio, you should never gamble more than you can afford to lose. The fear of becoming addicting to gambling is one of the biggest reasons that I’ve only set foot in a casino a handful of times since turning 21. It’s fun to win and the hope that the next hand will turn around a spell of bad luck can be the easiest lie we ever tell ourselves.
Please think long and hard before placing any money on any sporting event. If you have second thoughts about the wisdom of making that bet, you probably shouldn’t be placing it. On that note, I consider myself more than a casual NFL fan but far less than an expert. I’m looking to have some fun with a few of the many available prop bets associated with the Super Bowl; I’m not looking to make money. If you use my suggestions to make bets, you are assuming all of the risk as I am not claiming to know anything more than your typical NFL fan. To reinforce the fact that this is completely a thought exercise, I will be placing bets in simoleons, the currency of Sim City.
PROP BETS
The Super Bowl very clearly shows that the United States is simply obsessed with two things; the Super Bowl itself and gambling. Before going any further, I’d suggest reading the following piece by Bill Barnwell on Grantland.com about a few various prop bets associated with this Super Bowl.
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8889349/bill-barnwell-prop-bets
There is one section that is especially important in this piece that I’m just going to quote here because before reading Barnwell’s piece, I had no idea what a line of +700 meant.
This is Barnwell’s explanation of what it means when the line of there being overtime is +700 and the line on there not being overtime is -1000:
“The "+700" figure next to "Yes" means that a bettor would receive $700 back in profit if they bet $100 on the event occurring before it actually happened. If you held this winning ticket with $100 and brought it to the counter, you would be handed back $800 (the $700 profit plus your initial $100 bet). The "-1000" figure next to "No" replaces the positive sign at the beginning with a negative sign; it indicates that you have to bet the dollar amount in question to win $100. In this case, if you wanted to win $100 betting against the possibility that there would be overtime, you would need to bet $1000. If there's no overtime, you would win $1100 (the $100 profit plus your initial $1000 bet).”
In other words, if you’re betting on a line with a negative number, you’re betting on an outcome that has a better than 50/50 chance of happening. In this context, it makes complete sense. NFL games rarely go to overtime so betting on there NOT being overtime and being correct only yields 10% on your bet.
MY BETS
In a lot of ways, I view the thought of determining which bets to make a lot like I would view a roulette table before the ball is rolled. It seems logical to me to bet smaller amounts on some longshot outcomes while betting larger amounts on more predictable outcomes to hopefully balance out the missed longshots and keep me above even. My goal is making these picks is not to maximize my potential outcome; it’s to maximize my outcome while minimizing my exposure to long odds bets.
Obviously, the list of bets that Barnwell puts forth isn’t comprehensive but I’m going to pick from that list and the list at one other website I found. First, the favorites:
MENTIONS OF THE “HARBAUGH BOWL, “HARBOWL”, OR “SUPERBAUGH”
OVER 2.5 (-110)
This seems like a complete no-brainer to me. Somehow there are people out there that think the broadcasters are going to resist using one of these catchy terms once or twice at most? While it might not be Phil Simms or Jim Nantz that goes here, you have to remember that the broadcast team includes the sideline reporters and the crew doing the halftime show. My bet is 20 simoleons on the over.
WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 2 POINT CONVERSION?
NO (-500)
In the first 46 Super Bowls, teams are 6-13 when going for two and those attempts have come in 8 different Super Bowls. However, for these purposes it must be considered that the San Diego Chargers were 2-2 in Super Bowl XXIX. Therefore, there has only been five Super Bowls with a successful two point conversion, or 10.9%.
A line of -500 implies that something has only an 83.3% chance of happening when, according to Super Bowl history, it actually has an 89.1% chance of happening. Statistically speaking, this bet feels like a very safe one. NFL coaches don’t like going for two unless they’re completely desperate and the game is basically over but the Super Bowl is the one venue where some coaches might be willing to put it on the line.
The only reason this bet doesn’t feel terribly secure is that all of the two point conversion attempts have occurred in the past 18 Super Bowls. If you use that as your sample size instead of all 46 Super Bowls, then the “yes” bet looks like a steal. This can be considered the “entertainment” portion of the post when you read along and watch me talk myself out of a particular bet…
They wouldn’t, would they? Two great running games, plus Colin Kaepernick… plus it looks like Jim Harbaugh is willing to take this kind of risk…
Oh, this is just icky… I’m putting 20 simoleons on No but this really doesn’t feel safe.
WILL THERE BE A DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS TOUCHDOWN?
NO (-200)
I’m just not feeling this one. I feel like the two quarterbacks are playing well enough right now to avoid a pick-6 (this is the point where I remember Kaepernick throwing one against Green Bay) and I don’t feel like either team has a particularly dynamic special teams to be able to bring one back.
I know that Baltimore gave up not one but two special teams TD’s against the Broncos but I saw a very different team in the second half against the Broncos and against the Patriots than I did in the first half in Denver. They’re playing very well and I just don’t see them giving up another one. Sometimes it feels like defensive and special teams TD’s come in bunches and I can’t help but think that for the 2012/13 playoffs, we’ve already seen the bunches.
On top of all that, -200 seems like a pretty favorable line. This seems like a fairly high reward for an outcome with a fairly high probability. Twenty simoleons on No.
WILL THERE BE A SUCCESSFUL 4TH DOWN CONVERSION?
YES (-250)
Between Jim Harbaugh’s aggressiveness (and his new QB) and the Ravens’ win-it-all-for-Ray mentality, I can’t imagine there not being at least one successful 4th down conversion. I know these are stout defenses but if one team gets down early, it would make this even more of a lock to come true. If there’s only one attempt the whole game, then I could see it going over to the “No” side, but if one team finds themselves in a situation where they need two scores in the final five minutes of regulation, there will definitely be a 4th down conversion. Fifteen simoleons on Yes.
THE UNDERDOGS
WILL THERE BE A SAFETY?
YES (+900)
I was looking up data on two point conversions and noticed there were quite a few safeties. In 46 Super Bowls, there have been 7, or one in 15.2% of the games. This line implies a 10% chance of something happening so I’ll be getting some pretty good value here.
I know that Barnwell points out that the two pass rushes are struggling coming into this game but their special teams are well coached (enough to pin the other team deep) and there are other ways to get a safety, such as in Super Bowl XLIII when the Steelers were called for holding in the endzone. It also happened last year when Tom Brady was called for intentional grounding in the endzone.
Crazy things can happen when a football bounces… five simoleons on Yes.
WHO WILL THE MVP BE?
COLIN KAEPERNICK (+175)
JOE FLACCO (+225)
I’m lumping these together for obvious reasons. In my opinion, these two have been the MVP’s of their teams’ respective Super Bowl runs and I see no reason why that should stop now. Many players will be important on both sides of the ball for both teams but nobody is more important than these two guys.
Let me put it another way; when I ponder all the ways in which both teams can win this game, there are few instances where I think a team can win with their quarterback playing poorly. Five simoleons on each.
WHAT COLOR WILL THE GATORADE (OR LIQUID) DUMPED ON THE WINNING COACH BE?
RED (+750)
This is an example of how ridiculous prop bets can be. Having said that, considering that just about every beverage maker (and especially those that specialize in sports drinks) have a flavor that is colored red, this feels like a steal to me. When you add in the fact that the 49ers primary color is red, it just reinforces the feeling to me that this is way too high of a line. Five simoleons on red.
THERE WILL BE NO TOUCHDOWNS
YES (+20,000)
This is the longshot of all longshots and it becomes even more so when you consider that these two teams have combined for 22 touchdowns in their combined 5 games. However, a bet offering a 200:1 payout when you have two very good defenses feels like a good longshot on which to put a little bit of action. To me, this is the equivalent of having a lucky number at the roulette table where you always put a penny at the table’s with a dollar minimum bet.
Working against me in this bet is the fact that the game is in the Superdome and, in case you haven’t seen him play, Colin Kaepernick is fast. Considering that next year’s Super Bowl is in East Rutherford, New Jersey, and the forecast for Sunday calls for highs of 37 degrees, 13 mph winds, and a few snow showers, this bet will look quite a bit better next year. However, there’s no way you’ll get a line of +20,000 next year in the Meadowlands. Five simoleons on nobody reaching the endzone.
SUMMARY
There you have it, I’m placed 100 simoleons on prop bets on the Super Bowl. Of my nine bets, only two are mutually exclusive (MVP race) so I could potentially go 8-9. If I were to do that with Flacco winning the MVP trophy, I’ll turn my 100 simoleons into 1,226.93 simoleons (1,224.43 if Kaepernick wins MVP).
Disregarding the fact that two of them are mutually exclusive, based solely on the lines, I have a 0.00014% chance of running the table. Of course, with my luck, Kaepernick will get hurt on the first series of the game and Alex Smith will come in and lead the 49ers to a thrilling victory, winning the MVP trophy by throwing four touchdowns (including the game winning two point conversion) after throwing a pick 6 to Ray Lewis to start his day. Jim Harbaugh will be doused in water (it’s better for you anyways) at the end of the game where the announcers forget to mention even once that Jim and John Harbaugh are related.
This, ladies and gentlemen, is why I don’t gamble.
As for who wins the game, the last I heard is that the 49ers are 4.5 point favorites. Part of me says that line is too generous and another part of me says it's not generous enough. My prediction is that it comes down to the kickers. David Akers (29-42 in the regular season) will miss his only attempt in the first quarter while rookie Justin Tucker (30-33 this year) while make three field goals, including one early in the fourth quarter, setting up Ray Lewis to make a huge tackle on fourth down inside of two minutes. Ravens 30-28.
Enjoy the Super Bowl everyone and I’ll be back next week to look at how well (or depressingly) these (fake) bets turned out.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Winning in the NFL
Another regular season is here and gone and seven more head coaches are searching for a new job. Well, technically six since it took Andy Reid about five minutes (rightfully so) to find a new job. Nevertheless, the common acronym Not For Long is more appropriate in the NFL than any other of the big professional leagues. While there are always examples of coaches let go by their teams after a curiously short stint (see Johnson, Avery of the Brooklyn Nets) in the other leagues, those instances are the exception, not the rule. In the NFL, the day after the final day of the regular season is known as Black Monday, the day when head coaches are given their pink slips. Sometimes it’s a veteran head coach that’s had more than a fair shot to win in a particular city but it feels like more often than not, the head coach is fired before he really has a chance to impart himself on the team.
Why is that important? When a new head coach is hired, he may get to hire his coaching staff but he doesn’t get to hire the general manager (unless he is the general manager) and for the most part, he inherits the players from the previous coach. Therefore, I could argue that in a coach’s first year, the expectations should be very low and gradually ramp up from there. Normally, I would say that a “fair shot” for a head coach would consist of four or five seasons but again, not all situations are normal. For instance, in his first four years as a head coach with their current team, Coach A was 22-42 and made one playoff appearance while Coach B went 39-25 and won the Super Bowl twice.
Coach B (Bill Belichick) inherited an 8-8 team that was the team’s worst record in the previous four years. Coach A (Jim Schwartz) inherited a team that from 2001-2007 went 31-81 before bottoming out in 2008, going 0-16.
At the end of the day, the question is very simple: how do you win in the NFL? There is an easy answer for those of you out there that are more sarcastically inclined and yes, the way to win in the NFL is to score more points than the other team. Now that it’s been said, we can move on with life… and this blog post.
If we were to liken football history to that of baseball, we are certainly in the “Live Ball” era of football. For much of football’s history, three yards and a cloud of dust was the norm and the way to win was to get 3 ½ yards every play while holding your opponents to 2 ½ yards per play. There has been a gradual shift from the running game to the passing game over the past 40 years starting with players like Johnny Unitas and Joe Namath and continuing today with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning but nothing jumpstarted passing football like the rule changes following the 2004 season. The rule changes enacted were in favor of the quarterback and the receivers as fans seemed to tire of watching defensive backs mugging receivers every play.
Since then, quarterbacks have set just about every relevant record that matters with regards to playing the position. Yards and touchdowns in a season along with yards and touchdowns in a career all fell. In 2012, three rookies and three second year quarterbacks made up half the playoff field. One of the more senior quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers, sat for three years waiting for Brett Favre to take his sideshow to New York and Minnesota. In 2012, two of those three rookies were the starting quarterbacks from the word “go” and Russell Wilson was the starter coming out of training camp.
All of this leads me to believe that success in the NFL revolves around the quarterback position. While this is completely logical (look at the win-loss records for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning over the past ten years), I wanted to find something more. Would there be a way to come up with a formula with which a football team could be built to win?
SAMPLE SIZE
One of the biggest problems with the NFL is the fact that there are only 16 games per season. Attempting to predict something like winning based on that sample is problematic at best. By comparison, there are 162 games in every baseball season so in many ways, one season (or even half a season) is enough to draw some significant conclusions. Essentially, what I’m trying to say is outliers will exist in any analysis that looks at patterns of success in the NFL. This just needs to be accepted so we can move on.
For this set, I used 2002 to 2011, a ten year period that, for the most part, occurred after that 2004 cutoff I spoke of earlier. The rules may not have changed yet at the beginning of that window, but some of the elite quarterbacks that are still dominating the league today were either in their prime or coming into their prime by the time the window started.
MEASUREABLES
I believe that the NFL is currently a passing league first, so one of the first things I wanted to include in any analysis is quarterback play. There are many ways to measure quarterback play but of all the data I have access to, I chose to use the passer rating metric. The new metric that has recently been introduced, QuarterBack Rating (QBR) is a better overall measure of how well a quarterback plays but data is only available for the past five seasons (2008 onward) and in an attempt to draw more significant conclusions, I want a larger sample size.
Turnovers are a very large part of football but especially so in the NFL. When it comes to the success of a quarterback, the pass rush of the opposing team can have a drastic impact so it would seem that sacks would also be an important piece of this analysis. Finally, while the rushing game has been devalued in the past ten years, it can still be very important. This year, the Vikings made the playoffs with a (putting it nicely) suspect quarterback and it was because they had a very reliable running game. So, rushing yards per game will also be included in this analysis.
At this point we need to remember one critical thing; there is another team on the field during every game. Therefore, I’m going to break this analysis into three parts:
OFFENSE – The goal of the offense is to score points. Therefore, how do passer rating, sacks allowed, turnovers committed, and rushing yards per game come together in terms of points on the scoreboard?
DEFENSE – How do those statistics (defensive instead of offensive) go into the number of points that a team’s opponent scores in a season?
EFFECTIVE WINNING PERCENTAGE (more on this in a moment) – How do the number of points scored and allowed go into a team’s winning percentage?
THE ONE-POSSESSION CONUNDRUM
When I first started looking at the mountain of data that I obtained, I noticed that no matter what I did, there were a number of stubborn outliers that I simply could not explain. After who knows how long of staring at numbers and manipulating them every way I could imagine it, it finally occurred to me; one possession games.
I don’t know if I was watching a football game or reading a piece about the 2012 incarnation of the Indianapolis Colts but it got me to thinking and I eventually asked whether I should even include one possession games in my analysis.
Off the top of my head, the average NFL game is comprised of anywhere from 100-150 plays, including special teams. Essentially, a one possession game (where the margin is 8 points or less) could have swung the other way if just one of those plays had happened differently. Given this logic, it follows that over time, a team’s record in one possession games would regress towards the mean, or a .500 winning percentage.
To calculate the “effective” winning percentage, I took the number of one possession games each team played, divided it in half and added that number to the wins and losses a team had from 9+ point games. So, if a team was 12-4 (for a .750 winning percentage) but went 6-2 in one possession games, I normalized this record by putting in a .500 record in one possession games so I removed the 6-2 record and put in a 4-4 record to go with the team’s 6-2 record in 9+ point games. The result is a record of 10-6 for an “effective” winning percentage of .625.
When I did this, all of my regressions started to look much better than they originally had but while this solved one problem, it created another one. I appear to be getting closer to explaining how NFL teams can win but for the life of me, I have no idea how some teams do better in one possession games than others.
Out of all the regressions I conducted, the best r2 value I could get was about 0.19 and while the more statistically inclined of you might know that implication, for those of you who don’t, that’s not good. Essentially, in my search for an indicator, I was only able to find variables that could explain 19% of the variability of the dependent variable. For a perfectly linear relationship, the independent variable explains all of the variability in the dependent variable. When searching for a correlation, a regression isn’t worth much with an r2 value below 0.5.
I know that something dictates performance in close football games and if pressed, I’m inclined to say that it’s something subjective such as the quality of coaching. I don’t believe that it’s a coincidence that the only three teams that have won more than 60% of such games are New England Patriots (.708), Indianapolis Colts (.683), and the New York Giants (.600), while the only two teams to win less than 40% of such games are the Buffalo Bills (.375) and Detroit Lions (.338).
BY THE NUMBERS
For all of the regression analysis, I used the Ordinary Least Squares method and the advantage of this method is the r2 statistic I mentioned earlier. Using this method, I’ll be able to see how my variables mentioned above affect points scored and points allowed (and therefore winning percentage) and I’ll also be able to see how much of the picture is revealed by this analysis and how much is still murky.
Without further ado, the following equation determines how many point an offense will score in a season:
OFFENSE
Points = (RTN x 4.86222) – (Sck-All x 1.05405) + (Give x 1.5772) + (RYPG x 0.812841) – 144.606
RTN = passer rating of the team
Sck-All = sacks allowed
Give = turnovers committed
RYPG = rushing yards per game
DEFENSE
The following equation determines how many points a team will allow in a season:
Points = (OPP-RTN x 4.53191) – (Sck x 0.596579) + (Take x 1.42401) + (RYAPG x 0.89086) – 141.051
OPP-RTN = passer rating of the opponent
Sck = sacks
Take = turnovers a team creates
RYAPG = rushing yards allowed per game
WINNING
Finally, throw those together with effective winning percentage and you get the following equation:
EW% = (PF x 0.0214484) – (PA x 0.0208863) + 7.80691
EW% = effective winning percentage
PF = points scored
PA = points allowed
THAT’S A NICE BIT OF NUMERICAL NONSENSE, BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
Fantastic question. First of all, the r2 values are all relatively high, which is desired. For points scored, the value was 0.750041 and for points allowed it was 0.743349 while for effective winning percentage, it was 0.928130. This tells me that there is more to scoring points than what I put into these equations (special teams contributions, third down efficiency, etc.) but for relatively straightforward analysis, I’d say this methodology was successful.
If we dig a little deeper into the equations, some interesting things emerge about the relative importance of the variables. For this following section, you have to keep in mind that when I’m talking about the effects of changing one variable, I’m holding all the others constant.
PASSER RATING
Given by the constant in the winning percentage equation, an “average” team in every part of this analysis would win 7.8 games. I realize that truly the average team wins 8 games but there isn’t one team that would have all of the league average statistics used in this analysis.
If a team’s passer rating improves by 10 points, from a league average 80.5 to 90.5 (a moderate but significant jump), that would imply that the offense would score 48.6 more points (4.86 x 10). Multiplying this by 0.02145 means that holding all else constant, an increase in 10 points of passer rating leads to 1.04 more wins, improving a record from 7.8-8.2 to 8.84-7.16.
SACKS ALLOWED
This season, the average number of sacks allowed was 36.5 while the fewest allowed was 20. Going from league average protection to the best pass protection in the league this season would increase a team’s point total by 17.39 points, or a bit more than a third of a win.
GIVEAWAYS
This is the one that doesn’t make intuitive sense. Given that the coefficient has a positive value, this implies that as a team turns the ball over more, they score more points. This is backed up by the same sign on the coefficient in the points allowed equation. The only possible explanation that I have is that a team that turns the ball over more is more aggressive and is more likely to score more points (call it the Brett Favre Effect).
Even though it makes no intuitive sense, the p-value for this variable was essentially zero. This means that the variable is statistically significant; in other words, it’s in the equation because it should be, it adds more descriptive value to the equation.
If we accept that it belongs, we can see that committing 10 more turnovers will lead to 15.77 more points scored. In 2012, this means that the difference between the best and worst performances for turnovers committed (23 turnovers) was worth 36.28 points, or 0.778 wins.
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME
When I started, I didn’t originally have any rushing stats in the analysis. Including this is basically a shout out to the incredible season that Adrian Peterson is having. Given that I’ve added a key component of my analysis because of one player, perhaps that shows just how good of a season he’s had.
Anyways, a league average offense rushed for 115.9 yards per game in 2012. The Redskins led the league (yes, even with Peterson, the Vikings didn’t lead the league in rushing) with 169.31 yards per game. That difference is worth approximately 43.4 points, or 0.93 wins.
SPELL IT OUT FOR ME…
Turnovers are important. Protecting the passer is important. Having a good running game is important. Nothing is nearly as important as having a good quarterback. In other words, if you were to replace a novelty quarterback with a passer rating of 72.9 (for sake of argument, let’s refer to him as Tim Tebow) with a first ballot Hall of Famer with a passer rating of 105.8 (let’s call him Peyton Manning), and everyone else plays just as well as they did over both years, the team will score 159.97 more points and win 3.43 more games.
OK, YOU’VE BEEN AVOIDING IT THIS WHOLE TIME… DID YOUR METHOD WORK?
Let’s put it this way… it shows what I wanted it to show and that’s that the team goes as the success of their quarterback goes. A quarterback’s play while throwing the ball is far more important than sacks allowed, turnovers, or rushing yards per game. On average, from 2002 to 2011, my equations were off by 1.4 wins on average and 73% of the time, it was within two wins of how a team actually did.
In 2004, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 5-11 when my method would have predicted a record of 8.9-7.1 due to quality play from the quarterback position. While it was predicted that the Bucs would have scored 362.8 points, they actually scored 301 (perhaps as a result of their 36 turnovers).
In 2009, the Colts went 14-2 but their numbers predicted a record of 9.3-6.7. That season, the Colts were outgained 126.5-80.9 in rushing yards per game, a deficit they most likely overcame with the help of a certain quarterback.
2012 RESULTS
This is how the 2012 season shaped up division by division with the records predicted by my methods next.
As can easily be seen, there were some hits and some misses but I would argue (as I mentioned before) that 16 games is a small enough sample size that it is easy to get outliers. So what happens when we start looking at teams over a longer time scale, say, 10 years?
Before I show you the results, I took the “different than expected” records in one-possession games and added that to the predicted number of wins. For instance, over the past ten years, the Patriots should have a record of 99.9-60.1 but their record in one-possession games was 46-19, or 13.5 games better than an even 32.5-32.5 record. When you add that in, the Patriots’ predicted record becomes 113.4-46.6. When you compare this to their actual 123-37 record, it compares favorably. While a difference of 9.6 wins might sound like a lot, you have to remember that over 10 years, that’s only one win per year. Here’s how the league looks:
The average difference between the team’s actual records and those predicted by my method? 3.31 wins per team over the ten year period so an average of a third of a win per year.
At the end of the day, if you take away only one thing from this post, you should take away that today’s NFL does indeed revolve around the quarterback position and there’s a reason why simply adding a player like Peyton Manning immediately makes the Denver Broncos Super Bowl contenders.
Essentially, this analysis confirms what we know simply watching games every Sunday during the fall: a good defense can take you far, a great running back can get you to the playoffs, but quarterbacks are ones that carry you to the Lombardi Trophy.
Why is that important? When a new head coach is hired, he may get to hire his coaching staff but he doesn’t get to hire the general manager (unless he is the general manager) and for the most part, he inherits the players from the previous coach. Therefore, I could argue that in a coach’s first year, the expectations should be very low and gradually ramp up from there. Normally, I would say that a “fair shot” for a head coach would consist of four or five seasons but again, not all situations are normal. For instance, in his first four years as a head coach with their current team, Coach A was 22-42 and made one playoff appearance while Coach B went 39-25 and won the Super Bowl twice.
Coach B (Bill Belichick) inherited an 8-8 team that was the team’s worst record in the previous four years. Coach A (Jim Schwartz) inherited a team that from 2001-2007 went 31-81 before bottoming out in 2008, going 0-16.
At the end of the day, the question is very simple: how do you win in the NFL? There is an easy answer for those of you out there that are more sarcastically inclined and yes, the way to win in the NFL is to score more points than the other team. Now that it’s been said, we can move on with life… and this blog post.
If we were to liken football history to that of baseball, we are certainly in the “Live Ball” era of football. For much of football’s history, three yards and a cloud of dust was the norm and the way to win was to get 3 ½ yards every play while holding your opponents to 2 ½ yards per play. There has been a gradual shift from the running game to the passing game over the past 40 years starting with players like Johnny Unitas and Joe Namath and continuing today with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning but nothing jumpstarted passing football like the rule changes following the 2004 season. The rule changes enacted were in favor of the quarterback and the receivers as fans seemed to tire of watching defensive backs mugging receivers every play.
Since then, quarterbacks have set just about every relevant record that matters with regards to playing the position. Yards and touchdowns in a season along with yards and touchdowns in a career all fell. In 2012, three rookies and three second year quarterbacks made up half the playoff field. One of the more senior quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers, sat for three years waiting for Brett Favre to take his sideshow to New York and Minnesota. In 2012, two of those three rookies were the starting quarterbacks from the word “go” and Russell Wilson was the starter coming out of training camp.
All of this leads me to believe that success in the NFL revolves around the quarterback position. While this is completely logical (look at the win-loss records for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning over the past ten years), I wanted to find something more. Would there be a way to come up with a formula with which a football team could be built to win?
SAMPLE SIZE
One of the biggest problems with the NFL is the fact that there are only 16 games per season. Attempting to predict something like winning based on that sample is problematic at best. By comparison, there are 162 games in every baseball season so in many ways, one season (or even half a season) is enough to draw some significant conclusions. Essentially, what I’m trying to say is outliers will exist in any analysis that looks at patterns of success in the NFL. This just needs to be accepted so we can move on.
For this set, I used 2002 to 2011, a ten year period that, for the most part, occurred after that 2004 cutoff I spoke of earlier. The rules may not have changed yet at the beginning of that window, but some of the elite quarterbacks that are still dominating the league today were either in their prime or coming into their prime by the time the window started.
MEASUREABLES
I believe that the NFL is currently a passing league first, so one of the first things I wanted to include in any analysis is quarterback play. There are many ways to measure quarterback play but of all the data I have access to, I chose to use the passer rating metric. The new metric that has recently been introduced, QuarterBack Rating (QBR) is a better overall measure of how well a quarterback plays but data is only available for the past five seasons (2008 onward) and in an attempt to draw more significant conclusions, I want a larger sample size.
Turnovers are a very large part of football but especially so in the NFL. When it comes to the success of a quarterback, the pass rush of the opposing team can have a drastic impact so it would seem that sacks would also be an important piece of this analysis. Finally, while the rushing game has been devalued in the past ten years, it can still be very important. This year, the Vikings made the playoffs with a (putting it nicely) suspect quarterback and it was because they had a very reliable running game. So, rushing yards per game will also be included in this analysis.
At this point we need to remember one critical thing; there is another team on the field during every game. Therefore, I’m going to break this analysis into three parts:
OFFENSE – The goal of the offense is to score points. Therefore, how do passer rating, sacks allowed, turnovers committed, and rushing yards per game come together in terms of points on the scoreboard?
DEFENSE – How do those statistics (defensive instead of offensive) go into the number of points that a team’s opponent scores in a season?
EFFECTIVE WINNING PERCENTAGE (more on this in a moment) – How do the number of points scored and allowed go into a team’s winning percentage?
THE ONE-POSSESSION CONUNDRUM
When I first started looking at the mountain of data that I obtained, I noticed that no matter what I did, there were a number of stubborn outliers that I simply could not explain. After who knows how long of staring at numbers and manipulating them every way I could imagine it, it finally occurred to me; one possession games.
I don’t know if I was watching a football game or reading a piece about the 2012 incarnation of the Indianapolis Colts but it got me to thinking and I eventually asked whether I should even include one possession games in my analysis.
Off the top of my head, the average NFL game is comprised of anywhere from 100-150 plays, including special teams. Essentially, a one possession game (where the margin is 8 points or less) could have swung the other way if just one of those plays had happened differently. Given this logic, it follows that over time, a team’s record in one possession games would regress towards the mean, or a .500 winning percentage.
To calculate the “effective” winning percentage, I took the number of one possession games each team played, divided it in half and added that number to the wins and losses a team had from 9+ point games. So, if a team was 12-4 (for a .750 winning percentage) but went 6-2 in one possession games, I normalized this record by putting in a .500 record in one possession games so I removed the 6-2 record and put in a 4-4 record to go with the team’s 6-2 record in 9+ point games. The result is a record of 10-6 for an “effective” winning percentage of .625.
When I did this, all of my regressions started to look much better than they originally had but while this solved one problem, it created another one. I appear to be getting closer to explaining how NFL teams can win but for the life of me, I have no idea how some teams do better in one possession games than others.
Out of all the regressions I conducted, the best r2 value I could get was about 0.19 and while the more statistically inclined of you might know that implication, for those of you who don’t, that’s not good. Essentially, in my search for an indicator, I was only able to find variables that could explain 19% of the variability of the dependent variable. For a perfectly linear relationship, the independent variable explains all of the variability in the dependent variable. When searching for a correlation, a regression isn’t worth much with an r2 value below 0.5.
I know that something dictates performance in close football games and if pressed, I’m inclined to say that it’s something subjective such as the quality of coaching. I don’t believe that it’s a coincidence that the only three teams that have won more than 60% of such games are New England Patriots (.708), Indianapolis Colts (.683), and the New York Giants (.600), while the only two teams to win less than 40% of such games are the Buffalo Bills (.375) and Detroit Lions (.338).
BY THE NUMBERS
For all of the regression analysis, I used the Ordinary Least Squares method and the advantage of this method is the r2 statistic I mentioned earlier. Using this method, I’ll be able to see how my variables mentioned above affect points scored and points allowed (and therefore winning percentage) and I’ll also be able to see how much of the picture is revealed by this analysis and how much is still murky.
Without further ado, the following equation determines how many point an offense will score in a season:
OFFENSE
Points = (RTN x 4.86222) – (Sck-All x 1.05405) + (Give x 1.5772) + (RYPG x 0.812841) – 144.606
RTN = passer rating of the team
Sck-All = sacks allowed
Give = turnovers committed
RYPG = rushing yards per game
DEFENSE
The following equation determines how many points a team will allow in a season:
Points = (OPP-RTN x 4.53191) – (Sck x 0.596579) + (Take x 1.42401) + (RYAPG x 0.89086) – 141.051
OPP-RTN = passer rating of the opponent
Sck = sacks
Take = turnovers a team creates
RYAPG = rushing yards allowed per game
WINNING
Finally, throw those together with effective winning percentage and you get the following equation:
EW% = (PF x 0.0214484) – (PA x 0.0208863) + 7.80691
EW% = effective winning percentage
PF = points scored
PA = points allowed
THAT’S A NICE BIT OF NUMERICAL NONSENSE, BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
Fantastic question. First of all, the r2 values are all relatively high, which is desired. For points scored, the value was 0.750041 and for points allowed it was 0.743349 while for effective winning percentage, it was 0.928130. This tells me that there is more to scoring points than what I put into these equations (special teams contributions, third down efficiency, etc.) but for relatively straightforward analysis, I’d say this methodology was successful.
If we dig a little deeper into the equations, some interesting things emerge about the relative importance of the variables. For this following section, you have to keep in mind that when I’m talking about the effects of changing one variable, I’m holding all the others constant.
PASSER RATING
Given by the constant in the winning percentage equation, an “average” team in every part of this analysis would win 7.8 games. I realize that truly the average team wins 8 games but there isn’t one team that would have all of the league average statistics used in this analysis.
If a team’s passer rating improves by 10 points, from a league average 80.5 to 90.5 (a moderate but significant jump), that would imply that the offense would score 48.6 more points (4.86 x 10). Multiplying this by 0.02145 means that holding all else constant, an increase in 10 points of passer rating leads to 1.04 more wins, improving a record from 7.8-8.2 to 8.84-7.16.
SACKS ALLOWED
This season, the average number of sacks allowed was 36.5 while the fewest allowed was 20. Going from league average protection to the best pass protection in the league this season would increase a team’s point total by 17.39 points, or a bit more than a third of a win.
GIVEAWAYS
This is the one that doesn’t make intuitive sense. Given that the coefficient has a positive value, this implies that as a team turns the ball over more, they score more points. This is backed up by the same sign on the coefficient in the points allowed equation. The only possible explanation that I have is that a team that turns the ball over more is more aggressive and is more likely to score more points (call it the Brett Favre Effect).
Even though it makes no intuitive sense, the p-value for this variable was essentially zero. This means that the variable is statistically significant; in other words, it’s in the equation because it should be, it adds more descriptive value to the equation.
If we accept that it belongs, we can see that committing 10 more turnovers will lead to 15.77 more points scored. In 2012, this means that the difference between the best and worst performances for turnovers committed (23 turnovers) was worth 36.28 points, or 0.778 wins.
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME
When I started, I didn’t originally have any rushing stats in the analysis. Including this is basically a shout out to the incredible season that Adrian Peterson is having. Given that I’ve added a key component of my analysis because of one player, perhaps that shows just how good of a season he’s had.
Anyways, a league average offense rushed for 115.9 yards per game in 2012. The Redskins led the league (yes, even with Peterson, the Vikings didn’t lead the league in rushing) with 169.31 yards per game. That difference is worth approximately 43.4 points, or 0.93 wins.
SPELL IT OUT FOR ME…
Turnovers are important. Protecting the passer is important. Having a good running game is important. Nothing is nearly as important as having a good quarterback. In other words, if you were to replace a novelty quarterback with a passer rating of 72.9 (for sake of argument, let’s refer to him as Tim Tebow) with a first ballot Hall of Famer with a passer rating of 105.8 (let’s call him Peyton Manning), and everyone else plays just as well as they did over both years, the team will score 159.97 more points and win 3.43 more games.
OK, YOU’VE BEEN AVOIDING IT THIS WHOLE TIME… DID YOUR METHOD WORK?
Let’s put it this way… it shows what I wanted it to show and that’s that the team goes as the success of their quarterback goes. A quarterback’s play while throwing the ball is far more important than sacks allowed, turnovers, or rushing yards per game. On average, from 2002 to 2011, my equations were off by 1.4 wins on average and 73% of the time, it was within two wins of how a team actually did.
In 2004, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 5-11 when my method would have predicted a record of 8.9-7.1 due to quality play from the quarterback position. While it was predicted that the Bucs would have scored 362.8 points, they actually scored 301 (perhaps as a result of their 36 turnovers).
In 2009, the Colts went 14-2 but their numbers predicted a record of 9.3-6.7. That season, the Colts were outgained 126.5-80.9 in rushing yards per game, a deficit they most likely overcame with the help of a certain quarterback.
2012 RESULTS
This is how the 2012 season shaped up division by division with the records predicted by my methods next.
As can easily be seen, there were some hits and some misses but I would argue (as I mentioned before) that 16 games is a small enough sample size that it is easy to get outliers. So what happens when we start looking at teams over a longer time scale, say, 10 years?
Before I show you the results, I took the “different than expected” records in one-possession games and added that to the predicted number of wins. For instance, over the past ten years, the Patriots should have a record of 99.9-60.1 but their record in one-possession games was 46-19, or 13.5 games better than an even 32.5-32.5 record. When you add that in, the Patriots’ predicted record becomes 113.4-46.6. When you compare this to their actual 123-37 record, it compares favorably. While a difference of 9.6 wins might sound like a lot, you have to remember that over 10 years, that’s only one win per year. Here’s how the league looks:
The average difference between the team’s actual records and those predicted by my method? 3.31 wins per team over the ten year period so an average of a third of a win per year.
At the end of the day, if you take away only one thing from this post, you should take away that today’s NFL does indeed revolve around the quarterback position and there’s a reason why simply adding a player like Peyton Manning immediately makes the Denver Broncos Super Bowl contenders.
Essentially, this analysis confirms what we know simply watching games every Sunday during the fall: a good defense can take you far, a great running back can get you to the playoffs, but quarterbacks are ones that carry you to the Lombardi Trophy.
Sunday, December 30, 2012
NFL Franchise Power Rankings
While realizing that I am far from the first person to explore a subjective ranking system for NFL teams (and honestly, I’m probably closer to the millionth than the first to explore this option), I’ve decided to go for it nonetheless. However, what I’d like to do is take a little bit of a longer view and instead of focusing on how each team is doing right now I’d like to rank the NFL franchises by their overall outlook.
The first line of numbers you’ll see under each team name is the win-loss record from the past three seasons (2009-2011) and the average point differential per game. The second line is the win-loss record and the point differential from the 2012 season. For some teams (see #1) it shows the remarkable consistency that they have had over the past several years. For others (#’s 3, 7, and 30) it shows how far they’ve come or fallen in the last year or two.
My attempt in ranking the teams is to take a bit of a longer view of the league and each franchise. I don’t want the rankings to be a of-the-moment style power rankings because that can be contingent upon what key players had for breakfast before a big game. Essentially, I’m answering the following question; if I could take over the day to day operations of any franchise, which would I choose? On top of that, once I did take over the franchise, how much work would need to be done to shape the franchise into a long-term contender.
Without further delay, the rankings:
SUPER BOWL CONTENDER DIVISION
1 – New England Patriots
37-11, 10.79
12-4, 14.13
The reasons for this ranking are simple; Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Brady may not be as young as he once was (he’s 35) but the core of skill players around him are very young (top five receivers are, on average, 27, and the leading rusher this year, Stevan Ridley, is 23). As long as Brady is at his distributing best, this offense will be incredibly dynamic.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots invested heavily in the last few drafts and their defense isn’t a complete joke. If they can continue to improve on the defensive side of the ball while simply maintaining their level of performance on the offensive side of the ball, they will continue to be in the short list of Super Bowl contenders for several more years to come.
2 – San Francisco 49ers
27-21, 3.31
11-4-1, 7.75
The 49ers are the most complete team in the league without question. In an era of explosive offenses, they have a solid, dependable defense. Their running game, led by Frank Gore, is physical and bruising but neither of those are the reason that they are the best team in the league right now. In the minds of many people, including myself, the only thing holding them back from true greatness was the quarterback position. Alex Smith has played very well the past two years but there have always been doubts about his ability to take the team on his back and lead them to victory. Even after his spectacular game against the Saints in the 2011 playoffs, those doubts persisted. While the returns are still very early, Colin Kaepernick looks like the kind of quarterback that can take this team to new heights.
The main issue is the inevitable growing pains with a new quarterback. At times Kaepernick has been brilliant but at times he has looked like a new starter. If you look at this category of teams, all have a dependable, Pro-Bowl level quarterback (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Schaub). The odd man out is clearly Kaepernick. The fact that I’m ranking them number 2 is a testament to the rest of this roster and if they continue to get improvement from their second year starter, the sky is the limit for this team.
3 – Denver Broncos
20-28, -4.29
13-3, 12.00
Of all the teams I’ve put in this first category, the Broncos had the worst record from 2009 to 2011 by five games. This is what Peyton Manning can do for a team.
Last year, they did go 8-8, win the AFC West, and win a playoff game playing a style that would have made the service academies proud. They even won a game completing two passes while attempting eight. I watched it and I couldn’t believe it. Everyone spent so much time talking about Tim Tebow that not nearly enough credit was given to the defense and the special teams who played spectacularly through their seven game winning streak.
Most of that same defense is back and they have played extremely well this year. In addition, with Peyton Manning under center, the offensive line is getting its due. They could afford to upgrade at running back (even though Willis McGahee has done very well for Denver) but to find any serious deficiencies in this team requires some serious nitpicking.
4 – Green Bay Packers
36-12, 10.69
11-5, 6.06
As of week 16 of the season, the Packers have 14 players on injured reserve and two key contributors (James Starks and Charles Woodson) who are out indefinitely but won’t go on injured reserve so they can be eligible to come back this season. On top of that, they basically had a win taken from them by the replacement refs in Seattle. Despite all of that, they won the NFC North again and it’s all because of Aaron Rodgers.
Their defensive personnel will change over the next few years, their personnel in the running game will change, and their receivers and tight ends will change. They will always be a threat to make a January run to another Super Bowl title because Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback and he just turned 29.
I initially had them ranked a little but higher but as long as their defense is this banged up (and when banged up, this bad) I have no choice but to drop them down some. A quarterback can only do so much to make up for the sins of their defense.
5 – Houston Texans
25-23, 2.52
12-4, 5.31
Remember when Gary Kubiak was on the hot seat every year? Last year he did a great job of coaching through various injuries to Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and Mario Williams. Even missing their starting quarterback, they won a playoff game and very nearly went to the AFC Championship Game with their third string quarterback.
The future looks very bright for this franchise but they have not shown an ability to play from behind and depending on your opponent, that can be a major problem. I see this team going as far as Matt Schaub can take them.
I’m inclined to believe that the end of the season (as well as the first few games of the season) were aberrations at both ends of the spectrum caused by small sample sizes. The issue is that the playoffs are the ultimate small sample size and if I had to re-rank teams just for the playoff season, I’d put the Texans much lower. They have a good running game and a great defense anchored by one of the best defensive players in the NFL in JJ Watt. No matter how far the Texans go this year, the future is bright.
DIVISION CONTENDER DIVISION
This is a group of teams that for various reasons are not in the Super Bowl contender category. Obviously, any one of these teams could get hot and win a Super Bowl but unless something changes, I don’t see it happening in the next few years. When I say something needs to change, it might just be a mental block that a team has on playing in the playoffs (see team #6) or it might be that they are on the downslide after a long string of Super Bowl contention (see team #15).
6 – Atlanta Falcons
32-16, 4.50
13-3, 7.50
The Falcons are a team that seems poised to burst onto the scene and become a perennial Super Bowl contender any day now but before they can do that, they need to do something first; win a playoff game. Not make it to the Super Bowl or a conference title game, they have to win a single game in a win-or-go-home playoff atmosphere.
Their last two playoff losses have both been to the eventual Super Bowl champions but they have been in devastating fashion. Two years ago Aaron Rodgers was 31-36 for 366 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Packers’ 48-21 demolition of the Falcons in Atlanta. Last year, the Falcons’ offense put up exactly zero points in a 24-2 loss to the Giants.
This team has it all. They have a good defense, great skill players, and a very good and smart quarterback. They are on the cusp of great things but before they can win the Super Bowl, they have to win a playoff game.
7 – Seattle Seahawks
19-29, -4.19
11-5, 10.44
Everyone ridiculed the Seahawks for spending a third round pick on Russell Wilson. For all of his faults (and by that I mean his height), Wilson is a guy who has won and played well wherever he has played. In a league where the all-time leader for passing yards in a single season is Drew Brees, it’s beyond ridiculous that Wilson should have fallen so far in the draft because he wasn’t tall enough.
The Seahawks are a team with a very good defense and a great running game led by Marshawn Lynch. Adding a good decision maker at quarterback elevates this team even further but the biggest reason they crack my top ten has nothing to do with anything that happens on the field.
The 12th man. The Seahawks have an unbelievable home-field advantage right now. With the team they currently have, going 7-1 or 8-0 at home isn’t an unreasonable assumption which means if they only win half their games on the road, they will be able to get to 11 or 12 wins which increases the likelihood of playing playoff games at home. I’m not sure if they can win the Super Bowl as they are currently constructed but they are definitely a team on the rise.
8 – Indianapolis Colts
26-22, -0.65
11-5, -1.88
I’m sure there are 31 teams in the league that were a little miffed at the Colts this past year. Now, I’m not at all insinuating that the Colts tried to lose intentionally in order to secure the number one overall pick. Last year showed just how good Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are and how much they can add to a team and make the players around them better.
This is a young team with a budding superstar at quarterback. The sky is the limit for this franchise and it looks like they replaced one all-time great with another. From last year to this year, 37 of the 53 roster spots were turned over with new additions from free agency and the draft. As this group of players becomes more familiar with each other and they add a key contributor here and there, it appears that the Colts might be right back at the top of the AFC South where they’ve spent much of the last fifteen years.
9 – Washington Redskins
15-33, -4.67
10-6, 3.00
It would be a completely legitimate question to ask how I can rank the Redskins ahead of 21 teams that have won more game the past three years (only the Browns and Rams have a worse record from 2009-2011) and the answer is very simple; Robert Griffin III.
This team hasn’t been relevant for a long time but this past April they saw a chance to change the direction of the franchise. While the Rams might end up building a good team around Sam Bradford with the picks they got, there is no doubt that the Redskins are now a threat to make the playoffs and/or win the NFC East as long as RGIII is healthy…
But that’s the ultimate rub. He needs to learn how to protect himself. Yes, Kirk Counsins has shown that he is a competent back-up but there’s a big difference between a back-up or even a starting quarterback and a superstar. RGIII is a superstar and the fortunes of the Redskins will be tied to his health for the near future.
10 – Dallas Cowboys
25-23, 1.90
8-8, -1.50
One of these days, I might figure out the Cowboys. They have a very good quarterback, they have excellent skill position players, and they have a decent to good defense. Many have pointed to the culture of the franchise starting with owner Jerry Jones as the main culprit for the failings of the Cowboys over the past, well, 20 years. It’ll be interesting to see if he will be willing to take a step back for the good of the franchise. Personally, I wouldn’t bet on it and as long as Jones runs the whole show, look for this team to underachieve.
11 – New York Giants
27-21, 0.33
9-7, 5.31
From 2009 to 2011, the Giants only made the playoffs one time and that season they were 7-7 with two games to go. They then won six straight including their second Super Bowl win in five years. To be brutally honest, I don’t trust this team. I have seen some truly brilliant and dominating performances from this team followed immediately by games where their practice squad showed up instead of the starters. Because of their recent success, I wanted desperately to put them in the first category but couldn’t bring myself to do so. Sure enough, in week 17, with their odds of making the playoffs being very slim indeed, they played brilliantly in a 42-7 win over the Eagles. Until they can play more consistently, I’d have a very hard time moving them up into the Super Bowl Contender category.
12 – Cincinnati Bengals
23-25, -0.79
10-6, 4.44
There is a lot to like about the Bengals on the heels of back-to-back playoff appearances. Their defense is good and the combination of Andy Dalton and AJ Green has done wonders for this team. If there is one thing I don’t trust about the Bengals franchise, it’s owner Mike Brown. For years, various players have talked about how bad it is to play for the Bengals and for this franchise to take a step forward, that perception will need to change.
Having said that, they are on the uptick at the right time. The Steelers and Ravens are both on the downswing for various reasons so the AFC North is there for the taking. The Bengals won’t be handed anything but they are a promising looking team for the next few years.
13 – Chicago Bears
26-22, 0.25
10-6, 6.13
The Bears started 7-3 last year and 7-1 this year and both times, they looked like one of the most complete teams in the league. The second half of both seasons has shown this isn’t necessarily the case. Can they overtake the Packers to win the division and make sure they play at home in the playoffs? Is Jay Cutler a Super Bowl level quarterback? Lovie Smith took this team to the Super Bowl several years ago with Rex Grossman at QB but can he take them back there?
There are a lot of questions surrounding this team but not many answers.
14 – Baltimore Ravens
33-15, 6.85
10-6, 3.38
Only three teams won more games from 2009-2011 than the Ravens’ 33; the Packers (36), and the Saints and Patriots (37). How can I possibly rank them this low?
Last year looked like it was going to be the breakout year for the Ravens. If one play had gone differently, they would have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl instead of the Patriots. Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady for most of the game but as a team they just couldn’t quite get over the hump. This year, the Ravens have taken a huge step back. Flacco is inconsistent and that’s the nice way to put it. They have one of the best running backs in the game in Ray Rice and they seem to be unable to give him the ball. Their defense, which once upon a time won them a Super Bowl, is old and injured and doesn’t instill the fear it once did.
Their offense can take this team far as presently constructed but their defense is going to need a serious overhaul in the near future and that will determine the viability of this franchise going forward.
15 – Pittsburgh Steelers
33-15, 5.94
8-8, 1.38
This is a team that has won two Super Bowls already but the last few years they haven’t gotten any younger and they just can’t stay healthy. Ben Roethlisberger is beyond deadly on third down but for all of the good players and good coaches associated with this team, their offensive line has been downright dreadful for years. On top of that, their most important defensive player (Troy Polamalu), the one who allows Dick Lebeau to do all of his crazy things has been battling injuries for years.
Like the Ravens, their defense is also getting old and needs to be retooled if they want to compete for another Super Bowl with Big Ben at quarterback.
16 – New Orleans Saints
37-11, 9.46
7-9, 0.44
I firmly believe that the Saints will be one of the more fascinating teams to watch over the next couple years. Three years ago, the Saints were the toast of the league in winning the Super Bowl. Last year, they were the focal point again as their offense set numerous records. This past offseason, they were up front and center yet again for all the wrong reasons with the bounty situation.
This season is showing everyone how much a head coach can mean to a team. Sean Payton is the single biggest missing piece this season and they went from a perennial playoff team to a mediocre team at best. You also can’t forget that they have a new defensive coordinator this year who has had troubles adjusting to the new personnel. If Sean Payton comes back to New Orleans and Steve Spagnuolo continues to progress with this defense, there’s no reason why they can’t move back up these rankings in the next couple years.
THE CURSED MIDDLE DIVISION
In professional sports, the middle is a horrendous area that you never want to be in. If you are in the upper third of the league, you are winning and that means that getting free agents to come play for you will be easier. It also means that you are a more complete team and you are more in need of role players than superstars. If you’re in the lower third of the league, you have lots of needs but the good part is that will lead to losing records which puts you into the top portion of the draft and that way you’ll be more likely to get a once in a generation player (see Luck, Andrew). You have many needs but it’s easier to get that cornerstone player.
The middle is a more difficult position than either one of those. You don’t have a terrible team but you have lots of holes. You’re going to be picking somewhere between 11 and 21 (in the NFL at least) and while you can definitely find good players, you’re never going to be selecting those surefire Pro-Bowlers. While the middle is a more precarious position in the NBA, it’s still difficult in the NFL.
17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17-31, -7.08
7-9, -0.31
The Bucs have the misfortune of playing in a brutal division; one which I would say is one of the best in the league. Finishing third in this division isn’t too much of a knock given what the Saints and Falcons have done the past few years.
Apparently Greg Schiano can have some success in the NFL. He took a team that looked truly pathetic in losing the last ten games of the 2011 season and instilled some pride in it. Josh Freeman looks like he can be a good NFL quarterback and Doug Martin looks like an incredibly dynamic back. The process of building a winning franchise can be lengthy but if they stay the course, they have a good chance of becoming a playoff contender.
18 – Cleveland Browns
14-34, -5.83
5-11, -4.13
Despite their record, the Browns haven’t been a complete pushover this year. They have good young dynamic players on both side of the ball and it’s possible that a new ownership group will bring more winning experience to the franchise (the new owner is a former executive for the Steelers).
As with many teams, the fortunes of the Browns seem to be tied up in the status of Brandon Weeden. He has played well this year but given that he is not a conventional rookie (he’s 29 years old) their window for success with Weeden at quarterback is potentially much shorter than with your typical rookie.
Given the sorry state of the franchise since it came back into the league in 1999, the arrow is definitely pointing up for the Browns. While I don’t think they’ll be playing in the Super Bowl soon, I could potentially see a reversal in the AFC North in the next few years with the Browns and Bengals competing for the title and the Steelers and Ravens having some down years.
Having said that, the past ten years of management of those four franchises says to me that that won’t happen.
19 – St. Louis Rams
10-38, -10.71
7-8-1, -3.06
The Rams are hoping that they found their franchise quarterback a couple years ago in Sam Bradford. They went all-in on that theory when they auctioned off the number two pick in the draft this past year (which became Robert Griffin III).
Jeff Fisher has come in and the Rams are playing better but the single biggest problem they have is that Sam Bradford has very few good players to get the ball to. Stephen Jackson has been the consummate professional through the losing years and just passed 10,000 career rushing yards but he’s 29 and if the past decade has taught us anything, 30 is the end or near the end of productivity for NFL running backs.
Right now they are in the wrong division at the wrong time. The 49ers and Seahawks are poised to compete for playoff spots for the next several years so for the next several years, the best the Rams can hope for is a strong third place, keep developing their young players, and get some offensive weapons around Bradford. If they are able to do that, there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to become a playoff team in the future.
20 – Miami Dolphins
20-28, -1.54
7-9, -1.81
The Dolphins spent a first round, top-ten pick on a quarterback just last year and they’re hoping that Ryan Tannehill is the answer to the question that has plagued Miami since 1999; can we please find a quarterback who will adequately replace Dan Marino?
There’s a lot to like about this team with Reggie Bush having a bit of a resurgence in Miami but if they are going to be successful with Tannehill, they need good players for him to throw the ball to. The Dolphins have famously given up on both Wes Welker and Brandon Marshall in the past several years and those are the type of decisions they can’t make if they want to have any chance of dethroning the mighty Patriots in the AFC East.
WE NEED A QUARTERBACK DIVISION
Quarterback in the NFL is the single most important position in professional sports. It is possible to hide a suspect quarterback for a game and sometimes even for a season but in this era of offensive football, the only way to win and to win consistently is to have stability and excellence from the quarterback position.
21 – Minnesota Vikings
21-27, -0.38
10-6, 1.94
Adrian Peterson is simply phenomenal and he is being wasted with Christian Ponder at quarterback. As I said in the lead-in to this section, you can hide a suspect quarterback with a good running game and defense and that’s exactly what the Vikings have done in 2012.
To put the issue in as stark relief as is possible, the one year out of the past five that they’ve had good quarterback play, they went 12-4 and played in the NFC title game with Brett Favre at quarterback. Given how well Peterson is running, it wouldn’t take much to turn their offense into a serious threat but Ponder does not appear to be the answer.
What Peterson has done this year is truly amazing but I cannot consider them legitimate contenders for the NFC North title until they get more competent play from their quarterbacks. With all of the failings of Chicago and Jay Cutler, he has Pro-Bowl level talent and if they can put it together with the passing game, they will leapfrog the Vikings in the standings. That is the main reason why the Bears are #13 in these rankings and the Vikings (a 2012 playoff team) are just outside the top 20.
22 – Buffalo Bills
16-32, -5.67
6-10, -5.69
The Bills tried to make a big splash in the offseason by acquiring Mario Williams via free agency but they have once again fallen flat and won’t have a winning record for an eighth straight year and they will miss the playoffs for the thirteenth straight year.
Ever since receiving a huge contract extension, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been nothing special and despite some dynamic offensive playmakers, they haven’t beaten a single team with a winning record. Like the Dolphins and Jets, the Bills have the current misfortune of competing with the Patriots during one of the more impressive streaks of sustained success in pro sports history.
23 – Arizona Cardinals
23-25, -2.73
5-11, -6.69
I have the sneaking suspicion that coach Ken Whisenhunt has called Kurt Warner (who turned 41 back in June) at least once this year asking how much he really likes his new job with the NFL Network.
The Cardinals quarterback play has been historically bad this year and one of the truly great receivers is languishing on a terrible team. Having said all of that, I believe they are a good quarterback from once against being a threat in the NFC West. The road to the playoffs is far more difficult now than several years ago with the emergence of Seattle and the dominance of San Francisco but that doesn’t mean they can’t make it.
They have several holes but nothing bigger than the quarterback position. It is the falling tide that is sinking all boats (I know that’s not the saying and it doesn’t make sense but that’s what’s happening in Phoenix this year). A better passing game would lead to a better running game and with their defense, they could be a dangerous team with someone else under center.
24 – Oakland Raiders
21-27, -4.52
4-12, -9.56
The Raiders thought Carson Palmer was the answer but clearly that is not the case. Darren McFadden has been healthy this year but that’s all you can say that’s positive about his season. One could easily argue that there are far more issues than just Palmer (such as a bottom-5 defense) but the fact is that they were 5-3 at the time of the trade and in the driver’s seat in the AFC West.
Carson Palmer has always been a bit overrated as an NFL quarterback but he hasn’t been terrible. The Raiders overpaid for him hoping that he was going to be able to go back to his 2005 form and they got burned for it. Given all they gave up for him, they’ll be paying for this mistake for several years and given the ascendance of Peyton Manning in Denver, don’t look for the Raiders in the playoffs for several years to come.
25 – Tennessee Titans
23-25, -0.48
6-10, -8.81
Chris Johnson rushed for 2,000 yards and since then, he’s been one of the more overpaid players in the entire league. His statement that he can rush for 2,500 yards in a season is beyond ridiculous. I don’t want to focus my wrath on Johnson alone but the Titans were 9-7 last year and were in the mix for the final playoff spot and the fact of the matter is that Johnson is not the same player that he was when he rushed for 2,000 yards in a season. Granted, some of that blame belongs to the passing game and some belongs to the offensive line but whatever the case, he is not the same back and he is certainly not performing as he should be given his salary.
But the quarterback position is also an issue. Jake Locker has had periods of brilliance but he has also not yet shown that he is the long-term answer at the position. Matt Hasselbeck stepped in and played well last year and despite having some good play left in the tank was benched this season (he’s at the top of my I’m-shocked-he’s-not-starting-somewhere list).
Hasselbeck can still be a serviceable starter and Locker has shown flashes of why they drafted him in the top-ten. What the Titans needs is better play around the quarterback position and stability within it.
LOST IN THE WOODS DIVISION
Some teams just need to blow up the roster and the front office and start over again. Very few franchises in any sport are able to compete year in and year out and even they have years here and there when they need to focus on rebuilding their roster, sometimes from the ground up. Only four teams made the playoffs each year from 2009 to 2011, the Saints, Ravens, Packers, and Patriots. Sooner or later, every team has an off year and needs to address some need here or there.
26 – New York Jets
28-20, 3.94
6-10, -5.88
Rex Ryan came into town and made all sorts of bold proclamations. He even made it to the AFC Championship Game in back-to-back years with Mark Sanchez outdueling Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in back-to-back weeks at one point. The past two years have been a train wreck and they added to the ridiculousness by adding Tim Tebow and then not doing anything with him.
The roster is nowhere near as deep as it was several years ago and Mark Sanchez desperately needs a change of scenery. Rex Ryan and their front office have done a terrible job of maintaining the success they had in Ryan’s first two years and it just shows that they are not the answer long-term to run this team. The only thing that’s harder to understand than the performance of the team and the decisions made by the front office are the decisions made by their owner and that’s the one thing that nobody can change.
The Jets need wholesale changes all over their roster and their front office and all the while, the Jets’ nemesis, Bill Belichick, has retooled the Patriots with younger players to supplement his first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. The Dolphins have a promising young quarterback and the Bills look like they are finally fed up with losing. The Jets, meanwhile, owe Mark Sanchez $8.5 million next year.
On top of it all, Rex Ryan emphatically said he is the man for the job with the Jets. That really says about everything you need to know about the level of dysfunction with the Jets.
27 – Detroit Lions
18-30, -3.17
4-12, -4.06
There are many reasons why I feel like this team should be ranked much higher than this. Matt Stafford is one of four quarterbacks to throw for more than 5,000 yards in a season. Calvin Johnson just set the single season record for receiving yards. The Lions defensive line is one of the best in football. When you put all that together, how can you get a bottom five ranking?
I believe the tone of a franchise starts from the top and while Jim Schwartz has brought a much needed edge to this team, it has led to a lack of discipline that has shot them in their collective foot numerous times in the past two years.
This is a team that could become a top ten team if they became more disciplined and developed more of a running game. It would also help if Matt Stafford could develop a more consistent throwing motion but one thing at a time. Last year they were a dynamic offense with Jahvid Best but once Best sustained his last concussion, the Lions appeared to abandon the running game and haven’t been the same since. Now, they are reduced to Stafford throwing the ball to Calvin Johnson and seeing if Suh can get to the quarterback without kicking someone after the play. That is no way to build a team.
28 – Carolina Panthers
16-32, -4.75
7-9, -0.38
This team was 2-14 in 2010 and got to draft Cam Newton number on overall. In his rookie year, they showed great promise in improving to 6-10 and this year, the Panthers were a popular pick to make the leap to becoming a playoff contender.
What they have done is fall flat on their face. Newton has shown his immaturity in dealing with adversity and these losses have shown that they had more holes than just at quarterback in going 2-14.
Overall, the arrow is pointing up for the Panthers because they have a dynamic quarterback who, with any luck and health, will only get better. However, they have a long way to go before they can be considered serious playoff contenders, especially in the same division as the Falcons, Saints, and improved Bucs.
29 – San Diego Chargers
30-18, 5.88
7-9, 0.00
The acquisition of Peyton Manning shifted the balance of power in the AFC West and it won’t be reshuffled anytime soon (I’d say until Manning retires). Phillip Rivers has put up great numbers and many regular season wins in his career but that hasn’t translated to any sort of postseason success. As veteran offensive players have either moved on (LaDanian Tomlinson and Vincent Jackson) or been injured (Antonio Gates), Rivers has been somewhat exposed as the caretaker of a great offense instead of the reason for it.
On top of that, Norv Turner has one again showed that he doesn’t belong as a head coach in the NFL. He took over a team that was at the crest of the wave and had just gone 14-2. They have since fallen very far very fast and the future is bleak for the Chargers.
30 – Philadelphia Eagles
29-19, 4.63
4-12, -10.25
The Eagles immediate future will most likely be tied to who their head coach is next year. Coaching changes always lead to a certain amount of turmoil and except for one notable example (Jim Harbaugh with the 49ers) they lead to a regression in on-field performance as the players have to learn a new system.
Nick Foles has played well but given that he’s a rookie, there’s no way to know how he’ll turn out. The Michael Vick era is clearly at an end in Philadelphia. The Eagles have an overabundance of dangerous skill position players between DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, and Jeremy Maclin but the problem they’ve had the last few years is who gets the ball to all of them?
Given the progress made by the Redskins, the overall talent in Dallas, and Eli Manning, it appears that the Eagles are several years away from serious contention.
Originally, I had the Eagles significantly higher than this but then the news has come out that Andy Reid will be fired after the season. It’s far from confirmed but with a very good accomplished head coach, this team drastically underachieved the past two years. It will take a very special personality to be able to come in and get good results out of this team and if I had to bet on it, I’d say it won’t happen.
31 – Kansas City Chiefs
21-27, -4.50
2-14, -13.38
Romeo Crennel is a good defensive coach but has had little to no success as a head coach. Given that he’s only coached the Browns and the Chiefs, this isn’t all that surprising.
Jamaal Charles has had a great season coming back from injury but that’s about the only bright spot for the Chiefs this year. It’s gotten so bad that the home fans infamously booed Matt Cassell when he got hurt (in one of the more classless moves in the NFL this year).
This year has been a trainwreck for the Chiefs and it starts with the front office. Big changes are needed which means the Chiefs won’t be very competitive for several years to come.
32 – Jacksonville Jaguars
20-28, -5.04
2-14, -11.81
What does it tell you when the Jaguars are doing so poorly to fill the seats in their stadium that they’re considering bringing in Tim Tebow? When you put selling tickets ahead of winning on the field, it says all you need to say about the state of the franchise.
The first line of numbers you’ll see under each team name is the win-loss record from the past three seasons (2009-2011) and the average point differential per game. The second line is the win-loss record and the point differential from the 2012 season. For some teams (see #1) it shows the remarkable consistency that they have had over the past several years. For others (#’s 3, 7, and 30) it shows how far they’ve come or fallen in the last year or two.
My attempt in ranking the teams is to take a bit of a longer view of the league and each franchise. I don’t want the rankings to be a of-the-moment style power rankings because that can be contingent upon what key players had for breakfast before a big game. Essentially, I’m answering the following question; if I could take over the day to day operations of any franchise, which would I choose? On top of that, once I did take over the franchise, how much work would need to be done to shape the franchise into a long-term contender.
Without further delay, the rankings:
SUPER BOWL CONTENDER DIVISION
1 – New England Patriots
37-11, 10.79
12-4, 14.13
The reasons for this ranking are simple; Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Brady may not be as young as he once was (he’s 35) but the core of skill players around him are very young (top five receivers are, on average, 27, and the leading rusher this year, Stevan Ridley, is 23). As long as Brady is at his distributing best, this offense will be incredibly dynamic.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots invested heavily in the last few drafts and their defense isn’t a complete joke. If they can continue to improve on the defensive side of the ball while simply maintaining their level of performance on the offensive side of the ball, they will continue to be in the short list of Super Bowl contenders for several more years to come.
2 – San Francisco 49ers
27-21, 3.31
11-4-1, 7.75
The 49ers are the most complete team in the league without question. In an era of explosive offenses, they have a solid, dependable defense. Their running game, led by Frank Gore, is physical and bruising but neither of those are the reason that they are the best team in the league right now. In the minds of many people, including myself, the only thing holding them back from true greatness was the quarterback position. Alex Smith has played very well the past two years but there have always been doubts about his ability to take the team on his back and lead them to victory. Even after his spectacular game against the Saints in the 2011 playoffs, those doubts persisted. While the returns are still very early, Colin Kaepernick looks like the kind of quarterback that can take this team to new heights.
The main issue is the inevitable growing pains with a new quarterback. At times Kaepernick has been brilliant but at times he has looked like a new starter. If you look at this category of teams, all have a dependable, Pro-Bowl level quarterback (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Schaub). The odd man out is clearly Kaepernick. The fact that I’m ranking them number 2 is a testament to the rest of this roster and if they continue to get improvement from their second year starter, the sky is the limit for this team.
3 – Denver Broncos
20-28, -4.29
13-3, 12.00
Of all the teams I’ve put in this first category, the Broncos had the worst record from 2009 to 2011 by five games. This is what Peyton Manning can do for a team.
Last year, they did go 8-8, win the AFC West, and win a playoff game playing a style that would have made the service academies proud. They even won a game completing two passes while attempting eight. I watched it and I couldn’t believe it. Everyone spent so much time talking about Tim Tebow that not nearly enough credit was given to the defense and the special teams who played spectacularly through their seven game winning streak.
Most of that same defense is back and they have played extremely well this year. In addition, with Peyton Manning under center, the offensive line is getting its due. They could afford to upgrade at running back (even though Willis McGahee has done very well for Denver) but to find any serious deficiencies in this team requires some serious nitpicking.
4 – Green Bay Packers
36-12, 10.69
11-5, 6.06
As of week 16 of the season, the Packers have 14 players on injured reserve and two key contributors (James Starks and Charles Woodson) who are out indefinitely but won’t go on injured reserve so they can be eligible to come back this season. On top of that, they basically had a win taken from them by the replacement refs in Seattle. Despite all of that, they won the NFC North again and it’s all because of Aaron Rodgers.
Their defensive personnel will change over the next few years, their personnel in the running game will change, and their receivers and tight ends will change. They will always be a threat to make a January run to another Super Bowl title because Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback and he just turned 29.
I initially had them ranked a little but higher but as long as their defense is this banged up (and when banged up, this bad) I have no choice but to drop them down some. A quarterback can only do so much to make up for the sins of their defense.
5 – Houston Texans
25-23, 2.52
12-4, 5.31
Remember when Gary Kubiak was on the hot seat every year? Last year he did a great job of coaching through various injuries to Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and Mario Williams. Even missing their starting quarterback, they won a playoff game and very nearly went to the AFC Championship Game with their third string quarterback.
The future looks very bright for this franchise but they have not shown an ability to play from behind and depending on your opponent, that can be a major problem. I see this team going as far as Matt Schaub can take them.
I’m inclined to believe that the end of the season (as well as the first few games of the season) were aberrations at both ends of the spectrum caused by small sample sizes. The issue is that the playoffs are the ultimate small sample size and if I had to re-rank teams just for the playoff season, I’d put the Texans much lower. They have a good running game and a great defense anchored by one of the best defensive players in the NFL in JJ Watt. No matter how far the Texans go this year, the future is bright.
DIVISION CONTENDER DIVISION
This is a group of teams that for various reasons are not in the Super Bowl contender category. Obviously, any one of these teams could get hot and win a Super Bowl but unless something changes, I don’t see it happening in the next few years. When I say something needs to change, it might just be a mental block that a team has on playing in the playoffs (see team #6) or it might be that they are on the downslide after a long string of Super Bowl contention (see team #15).
6 – Atlanta Falcons
32-16, 4.50
13-3, 7.50
The Falcons are a team that seems poised to burst onto the scene and become a perennial Super Bowl contender any day now but before they can do that, they need to do something first; win a playoff game. Not make it to the Super Bowl or a conference title game, they have to win a single game in a win-or-go-home playoff atmosphere.
Their last two playoff losses have both been to the eventual Super Bowl champions but they have been in devastating fashion. Two years ago Aaron Rodgers was 31-36 for 366 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Packers’ 48-21 demolition of the Falcons in Atlanta. Last year, the Falcons’ offense put up exactly zero points in a 24-2 loss to the Giants.
This team has it all. They have a good defense, great skill players, and a very good and smart quarterback. They are on the cusp of great things but before they can win the Super Bowl, they have to win a playoff game.
7 – Seattle Seahawks
19-29, -4.19
11-5, 10.44
Everyone ridiculed the Seahawks for spending a third round pick on Russell Wilson. For all of his faults (and by that I mean his height), Wilson is a guy who has won and played well wherever he has played. In a league where the all-time leader for passing yards in a single season is Drew Brees, it’s beyond ridiculous that Wilson should have fallen so far in the draft because he wasn’t tall enough.
The Seahawks are a team with a very good defense and a great running game led by Marshawn Lynch. Adding a good decision maker at quarterback elevates this team even further but the biggest reason they crack my top ten has nothing to do with anything that happens on the field.
The 12th man. The Seahawks have an unbelievable home-field advantage right now. With the team they currently have, going 7-1 or 8-0 at home isn’t an unreasonable assumption which means if they only win half their games on the road, they will be able to get to 11 or 12 wins which increases the likelihood of playing playoff games at home. I’m not sure if they can win the Super Bowl as they are currently constructed but they are definitely a team on the rise.
8 – Indianapolis Colts
26-22, -0.65
11-5, -1.88
I’m sure there are 31 teams in the league that were a little miffed at the Colts this past year. Now, I’m not at all insinuating that the Colts tried to lose intentionally in order to secure the number one overall pick. Last year showed just how good Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are and how much they can add to a team and make the players around them better.
This is a young team with a budding superstar at quarterback. The sky is the limit for this franchise and it looks like they replaced one all-time great with another. From last year to this year, 37 of the 53 roster spots were turned over with new additions from free agency and the draft. As this group of players becomes more familiar with each other and they add a key contributor here and there, it appears that the Colts might be right back at the top of the AFC South where they’ve spent much of the last fifteen years.
9 – Washington Redskins
15-33, -4.67
10-6, 3.00
It would be a completely legitimate question to ask how I can rank the Redskins ahead of 21 teams that have won more game the past three years (only the Browns and Rams have a worse record from 2009-2011) and the answer is very simple; Robert Griffin III.
This team hasn’t been relevant for a long time but this past April they saw a chance to change the direction of the franchise. While the Rams might end up building a good team around Sam Bradford with the picks they got, there is no doubt that the Redskins are now a threat to make the playoffs and/or win the NFC East as long as RGIII is healthy…
But that’s the ultimate rub. He needs to learn how to protect himself. Yes, Kirk Counsins has shown that he is a competent back-up but there’s a big difference between a back-up or even a starting quarterback and a superstar. RGIII is a superstar and the fortunes of the Redskins will be tied to his health for the near future.
10 – Dallas Cowboys
25-23, 1.90
8-8, -1.50
One of these days, I might figure out the Cowboys. They have a very good quarterback, they have excellent skill position players, and they have a decent to good defense. Many have pointed to the culture of the franchise starting with owner Jerry Jones as the main culprit for the failings of the Cowboys over the past, well, 20 years. It’ll be interesting to see if he will be willing to take a step back for the good of the franchise. Personally, I wouldn’t bet on it and as long as Jones runs the whole show, look for this team to underachieve.
11 – New York Giants
27-21, 0.33
9-7, 5.31
From 2009 to 2011, the Giants only made the playoffs one time and that season they were 7-7 with two games to go. They then won six straight including their second Super Bowl win in five years. To be brutally honest, I don’t trust this team. I have seen some truly brilliant and dominating performances from this team followed immediately by games where their practice squad showed up instead of the starters. Because of their recent success, I wanted desperately to put them in the first category but couldn’t bring myself to do so. Sure enough, in week 17, with their odds of making the playoffs being very slim indeed, they played brilliantly in a 42-7 win over the Eagles. Until they can play more consistently, I’d have a very hard time moving them up into the Super Bowl Contender category.
12 – Cincinnati Bengals
23-25, -0.79
10-6, 4.44
There is a lot to like about the Bengals on the heels of back-to-back playoff appearances. Their defense is good and the combination of Andy Dalton and AJ Green has done wonders for this team. If there is one thing I don’t trust about the Bengals franchise, it’s owner Mike Brown. For years, various players have talked about how bad it is to play for the Bengals and for this franchise to take a step forward, that perception will need to change.
Having said that, they are on the uptick at the right time. The Steelers and Ravens are both on the downswing for various reasons so the AFC North is there for the taking. The Bengals won’t be handed anything but they are a promising looking team for the next few years.
13 – Chicago Bears
26-22, 0.25
10-6, 6.13
The Bears started 7-3 last year and 7-1 this year and both times, they looked like one of the most complete teams in the league. The second half of both seasons has shown this isn’t necessarily the case. Can they overtake the Packers to win the division and make sure they play at home in the playoffs? Is Jay Cutler a Super Bowl level quarterback? Lovie Smith took this team to the Super Bowl several years ago with Rex Grossman at QB but can he take them back there?
There are a lot of questions surrounding this team but not many answers.
14 – Baltimore Ravens
33-15, 6.85
10-6, 3.38
Only three teams won more games from 2009-2011 than the Ravens’ 33; the Packers (36), and the Saints and Patriots (37). How can I possibly rank them this low?
Last year looked like it was going to be the breakout year for the Ravens. If one play had gone differently, they would have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl instead of the Patriots. Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady for most of the game but as a team they just couldn’t quite get over the hump. This year, the Ravens have taken a huge step back. Flacco is inconsistent and that’s the nice way to put it. They have one of the best running backs in the game in Ray Rice and they seem to be unable to give him the ball. Their defense, which once upon a time won them a Super Bowl, is old and injured and doesn’t instill the fear it once did.
Their offense can take this team far as presently constructed but their defense is going to need a serious overhaul in the near future and that will determine the viability of this franchise going forward.
15 – Pittsburgh Steelers
33-15, 5.94
8-8, 1.38
This is a team that has won two Super Bowls already but the last few years they haven’t gotten any younger and they just can’t stay healthy. Ben Roethlisberger is beyond deadly on third down but for all of the good players and good coaches associated with this team, their offensive line has been downright dreadful for years. On top of that, their most important defensive player (Troy Polamalu), the one who allows Dick Lebeau to do all of his crazy things has been battling injuries for years.
Like the Ravens, their defense is also getting old and needs to be retooled if they want to compete for another Super Bowl with Big Ben at quarterback.
16 – New Orleans Saints
37-11, 9.46
7-9, 0.44
I firmly believe that the Saints will be one of the more fascinating teams to watch over the next couple years. Three years ago, the Saints were the toast of the league in winning the Super Bowl. Last year, they were the focal point again as their offense set numerous records. This past offseason, they were up front and center yet again for all the wrong reasons with the bounty situation.
This season is showing everyone how much a head coach can mean to a team. Sean Payton is the single biggest missing piece this season and they went from a perennial playoff team to a mediocre team at best. You also can’t forget that they have a new defensive coordinator this year who has had troubles adjusting to the new personnel. If Sean Payton comes back to New Orleans and Steve Spagnuolo continues to progress with this defense, there’s no reason why they can’t move back up these rankings in the next couple years.
THE CURSED MIDDLE DIVISION
In professional sports, the middle is a horrendous area that you never want to be in. If you are in the upper third of the league, you are winning and that means that getting free agents to come play for you will be easier. It also means that you are a more complete team and you are more in need of role players than superstars. If you’re in the lower third of the league, you have lots of needs but the good part is that will lead to losing records which puts you into the top portion of the draft and that way you’ll be more likely to get a once in a generation player (see Luck, Andrew). You have many needs but it’s easier to get that cornerstone player.
The middle is a more difficult position than either one of those. You don’t have a terrible team but you have lots of holes. You’re going to be picking somewhere between 11 and 21 (in the NFL at least) and while you can definitely find good players, you’re never going to be selecting those surefire Pro-Bowlers. While the middle is a more precarious position in the NBA, it’s still difficult in the NFL.
17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17-31, -7.08
7-9, -0.31
The Bucs have the misfortune of playing in a brutal division; one which I would say is one of the best in the league. Finishing third in this division isn’t too much of a knock given what the Saints and Falcons have done the past few years.
Apparently Greg Schiano can have some success in the NFL. He took a team that looked truly pathetic in losing the last ten games of the 2011 season and instilled some pride in it. Josh Freeman looks like he can be a good NFL quarterback and Doug Martin looks like an incredibly dynamic back. The process of building a winning franchise can be lengthy but if they stay the course, they have a good chance of becoming a playoff contender.
18 – Cleveland Browns
14-34, -5.83
5-11, -4.13
Despite their record, the Browns haven’t been a complete pushover this year. They have good young dynamic players on both side of the ball and it’s possible that a new ownership group will bring more winning experience to the franchise (the new owner is a former executive for the Steelers).
As with many teams, the fortunes of the Browns seem to be tied up in the status of Brandon Weeden. He has played well this year but given that he is not a conventional rookie (he’s 29 years old) their window for success with Weeden at quarterback is potentially much shorter than with your typical rookie.
Given the sorry state of the franchise since it came back into the league in 1999, the arrow is definitely pointing up for the Browns. While I don’t think they’ll be playing in the Super Bowl soon, I could potentially see a reversal in the AFC North in the next few years with the Browns and Bengals competing for the title and the Steelers and Ravens having some down years.
Having said that, the past ten years of management of those four franchises says to me that that won’t happen.
19 – St. Louis Rams
10-38, -10.71
7-8-1, -3.06
The Rams are hoping that they found their franchise quarterback a couple years ago in Sam Bradford. They went all-in on that theory when they auctioned off the number two pick in the draft this past year (which became Robert Griffin III).
Jeff Fisher has come in and the Rams are playing better but the single biggest problem they have is that Sam Bradford has very few good players to get the ball to. Stephen Jackson has been the consummate professional through the losing years and just passed 10,000 career rushing yards but he’s 29 and if the past decade has taught us anything, 30 is the end or near the end of productivity for NFL running backs.
Right now they are in the wrong division at the wrong time. The 49ers and Seahawks are poised to compete for playoff spots for the next several years so for the next several years, the best the Rams can hope for is a strong third place, keep developing their young players, and get some offensive weapons around Bradford. If they are able to do that, there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to become a playoff team in the future.
20 – Miami Dolphins
20-28, -1.54
7-9, -1.81
The Dolphins spent a first round, top-ten pick on a quarterback just last year and they’re hoping that Ryan Tannehill is the answer to the question that has plagued Miami since 1999; can we please find a quarterback who will adequately replace Dan Marino?
There’s a lot to like about this team with Reggie Bush having a bit of a resurgence in Miami but if they are going to be successful with Tannehill, they need good players for him to throw the ball to. The Dolphins have famously given up on both Wes Welker and Brandon Marshall in the past several years and those are the type of decisions they can’t make if they want to have any chance of dethroning the mighty Patriots in the AFC East.
WE NEED A QUARTERBACK DIVISION
Quarterback in the NFL is the single most important position in professional sports. It is possible to hide a suspect quarterback for a game and sometimes even for a season but in this era of offensive football, the only way to win and to win consistently is to have stability and excellence from the quarterback position.
21 – Minnesota Vikings
21-27, -0.38
10-6, 1.94
Adrian Peterson is simply phenomenal and he is being wasted with Christian Ponder at quarterback. As I said in the lead-in to this section, you can hide a suspect quarterback with a good running game and defense and that’s exactly what the Vikings have done in 2012.
To put the issue in as stark relief as is possible, the one year out of the past five that they’ve had good quarterback play, they went 12-4 and played in the NFC title game with Brett Favre at quarterback. Given how well Peterson is running, it wouldn’t take much to turn their offense into a serious threat but Ponder does not appear to be the answer.
What Peterson has done this year is truly amazing but I cannot consider them legitimate contenders for the NFC North title until they get more competent play from their quarterbacks. With all of the failings of Chicago and Jay Cutler, he has Pro-Bowl level talent and if they can put it together with the passing game, they will leapfrog the Vikings in the standings. That is the main reason why the Bears are #13 in these rankings and the Vikings (a 2012 playoff team) are just outside the top 20.
22 – Buffalo Bills
16-32, -5.67
6-10, -5.69
The Bills tried to make a big splash in the offseason by acquiring Mario Williams via free agency but they have once again fallen flat and won’t have a winning record for an eighth straight year and they will miss the playoffs for the thirteenth straight year.
Ever since receiving a huge contract extension, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been nothing special and despite some dynamic offensive playmakers, they haven’t beaten a single team with a winning record. Like the Dolphins and Jets, the Bills have the current misfortune of competing with the Patriots during one of the more impressive streaks of sustained success in pro sports history.
23 – Arizona Cardinals
23-25, -2.73
5-11, -6.69
I have the sneaking suspicion that coach Ken Whisenhunt has called Kurt Warner (who turned 41 back in June) at least once this year asking how much he really likes his new job with the NFL Network.
The Cardinals quarterback play has been historically bad this year and one of the truly great receivers is languishing on a terrible team. Having said all of that, I believe they are a good quarterback from once against being a threat in the NFC West. The road to the playoffs is far more difficult now than several years ago with the emergence of Seattle and the dominance of San Francisco but that doesn’t mean they can’t make it.
They have several holes but nothing bigger than the quarterback position. It is the falling tide that is sinking all boats (I know that’s not the saying and it doesn’t make sense but that’s what’s happening in Phoenix this year). A better passing game would lead to a better running game and with their defense, they could be a dangerous team with someone else under center.
24 – Oakland Raiders
21-27, -4.52
4-12, -9.56
The Raiders thought Carson Palmer was the answer but clearly that is not the case. Darren McFadden has been healthy this year but that’s all you can say that’s positive about his season. One could easily argue that there are far more issues than just Palmer (such as a bottom-5 defense) but the fact is that they were 5-3 at the time of the trade and in the driver’s seat in the AFC West.
Carson Palmer has always been a bit overrated as an NFL quarterback but he hasn’t been terrible. The Raiders overpaid for him hoping that he was going to be able to go back to his 2005 form and they got burned for it. Given all they gave up for him, they’ll be paying for this mistake for several years and given the ascendance of Peyton Manning in Denver, don’t look for the Raiders in the playoffs for several years to come.
25 – Tennessee Titans
23-25, -0.48
6-10, -8.81
Chris Johnson rushed for 2,000 yards and since then, he’s been one of the more overpaid players in the entire league. His statement that he can rush for 2,500 yards in a season is beyond ridiculous. I don’t want to focus my wrath on Johnson alone but the Titans were 9-7 last year and were in the mix for the final playoff spot and the fact of the matter is that Johnson is not the same player that he was when he rushed for 2,000 yards in a season. Granted, some of that blame belongs to the passing game and some belongs to the offensive line but whatever the case, he is not the same back and he is certainly not performing as he should be given his salary.
But the quarterback position is also an issue. Jake Locker has had periods of brilliance but he has also not yet shown that he is the long-term answer at the position. Matt Hasselbeck stepped in and played well last year and despite having some good play left in the tank was benched this season (he’s at the top of my I’m-shocked-he’s-not-starting-somewhere list).
Hasselbeck can still be a serviceable starter and Locker has shown flashes of why they drafted him in the top-ten. What the Titans needs is better play around the quarterback position and stability within it.
LOST IN THE WOODS DIVISION
Some teams just need to blow up the roster and the front office and start over again. Very few franchises in any sport are able to compete year in and year out and even they have years here and there when they need to focus on rebuilding their roster, sometimes from the ground up. Only four teams made the playoffs each year from 2009 to 2011, the Saints, Ravens, Packers, and Patriots. Sooner or later, every team has an off year and needs to address some need here or there.
26 – New York Jets
28-20, 3.94
6-10, -5.88
Rex Ryan came into town and made all sorts of bold proclamations. He even made it to the AFC Championship Game in back-to-back years with Mark Sanchez outdueling Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in back-to-back weeks at one point. The past two years have been a train wreck and they added to the ridiculousness by adding Tim Tebow and then not doing anything with him.
The roster is nowhere near as deep as it was several years ago and Mark Sanchez desperately needs a change of scenery. Rex Ryan and their front office have done a terrible job of maintaining the success they had in Ryan’s first two years and it just shows that they are not the answer long-term to run this team. The only thing that’s harder to understand than the performance of the team and the decisions made by the front office are the decisions made by their owner and that’s the one thing that nobody can change.
The Jets need wholesale changes all over their roster and their front office and all the while, the Jets’ nemesis, Bill Belichick, has retooled the Patriots with younger players to supplement his first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. The Dolphins have a promising young quarterback and the Bills look like they are finally fed up with losing. The Jets, meanwhile, owe Mark Sanchez $8.5 million next year.
On top of it all, Rex Ryan emphatically said he is the man for the job with the Jets. That really says about everything you need to know about the level of dysfunction with the Jets.
27 – Detroit Lions
18-30, -3.17
4-12, -4.06
There are many reasons why I feel like this team should be ranked much higher than this. Matt Stafford is one of four quarterbacks to throw for more than 5,000 yards in a season. Calvin Johnson just set the single season record for receiving yards. The Lions defensive line is one of the best in football. When you put all that together, how can you get a bottom five ranking?
I believe the tone of a franchise starts from the top and while Jim Schwartz has brought a much needed edge to this team, it has led to a lack of discipline that has shot them in their collective foot numerous times in the past two years.
This is a team that could become a top ten team if they became more disciplined and developed more of a running game. It would also help if Matt Stafford could develop a more consistent throwing motion but one thing at a time. Last year they were a dynamic offense with Jahvid Best but once Best sustained his last concussion, the Lions appeared to abandon the running game and haven’t been the same since. Now, they are reduced to Stafford throwing the ball to Calvin Johnson and seeing if Suh can get to the quarterback without kicking someone after the play. That is no way to build a team.
28 – Carolina Panthers
16-32, -4.75
7-9, -0.38
This team was 2-14 in 2010 and got to draft Cam Newton number on overall. In his rookie year, they showed great promise in improving to 6-10 and this year, the Panthers were a popular pick to make the leap to becoming a playoff contender.
What they have done is fall flat on their face. Newton has shown his immaturity in dealing with adversity and these losses have shown that they had more holes than just at quarterback in going 2-14.
Overall, the arrow is pointing up for the Panthers because they have a dynamic quarterback who, with any luck and health, will only get better. However, they have a long way to go before they can be considered serious playoff contenders, especially in the same division as the Falcons, Saints, and improved Bucs.
29 – San Diego Chargers
30-18, 5.88
7-9, 0.00
The acquisition of Peyton Manning shifted the balance of power in the AFC West and it won’t be reshuffled anytime soon (I’d say until Manning retires). Phillip Rivers has put up great numbers and many regular season wins in his career but that hasn’t translated to any sort of postseason success. As veteran offensive players have either moved on (LaDanian Tomlinson and Vincent Jackson) or been injured (Antonio Gates), Rivers has been somewhat exposed as the caretaker of a great offense instead of the reason for it.
On top of that, Norv Turner has one again showed that he doesn’t belong as a head coach in the NFL. He took over a team that was at the crest of the wave and had just gone 14-2. They have since fallen very far very fast and the future is bleak for the Chargers.
30 – Philadelphia Eagles
29-19, 4.63
4-12, -10.25
The Eagles immediate future will most likely be tied to who their head coach is next year. Coaching changes always lead to a certain amount of turmoil and except for one notable example (Jim Harbaugh with the 49ers) they lead to a regression in on-field performance as the players have to learn a new system.
Nick Foles has played well but given that he’s a rookie, there’s no way to know how he’ll turn out. The Michael Vick era is clearly at an end in Philadelphia. The Eagles have an overabundance of dangerous skill position players between DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, and Jeremy Maclin but the problem they’ve had the last few years is who gets the ball to all of them?
Given the progress made by the Redskins, the overall talent in Dallas, and Eli Manning, it appears that the Eagles are several years away from serious contention.
Originally, I had the Eagles significantly higher than this but then the news has come out that Andy Reid will be fired after the season. It’s far from confirmed but with a very good accomplished head coach, this team drastically underachieved the past two years. It will take a very special personality to be able to come in and get good results out of this team and if I had to bet on it, I’d say it won’t happen.
31 – Kansas City Chiefs
21-27, -4.50
2-14, -13.38
Romeo Crennel is a good defensive coach but has had little to no success as a head coach. Given that he’s only coached the Browns and the Chiefs, this isn’t all that surprising.
Jamaal Charles has had a great season coming back from injury but that’s about the only bright spot for the Chiefs this year. It’s gotten so bad that the home fans infamously booed Matt Cassell when he got hurt (in one of the more classless moves in the NFL this year).
This year has been a trainwreck for the Chiefs and it starts with the front office. Big changes are needed which means the Chiefs won’t be very competitive for several years to come.
32 – Jacksonville Jaguars
20-28, -5.04
2-14, -11.81
What does it tell you when the Jaguars are doing so poorly to fill the seats in their stadium that they’re considering bringing in Tim Tebow? When you put selling tickets ahead of winning on the field, it says all you need to say about the state of the franchise.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
