MLB Pre/ReView 2011

Good day, loyal readers. As I’m sure you’ve noticed (or you could easily see by looking at the archive to the right) I haven’t written in quite a while. I wanted to write a preview for the 2011 Major League Baseball season but was unable to do it before the first pitch of the season was thrown out. With my deadline removed, this undertaking was put off time and time again until I finally had the inspiration, the time, and the motivation to write it.

Without further adieu or excuse-making…

SO FAR
(Note: all standing are entering the Sunday Night game between Atlanta and Philadelphia)

After the first month (and a little bit) of the season, there are a few surprises and a few things that everyone saw coming. What I’m going to do is go division by division, saying where the teams are right now and where I predict they’ll end up at season’s end. On top of that, I’ll try to throw in a few tidbits about what’s going on and who you should watch over the next few months.

AL EAST

Current Standings:
Team (W-L, GB)
New York (19-13, -)
Tampa Bay (20-14, -)
Boston (16-18, 4)
Toronto (15-19, 5)
Baltimore (14-19, 5.5)

Predicted Order of Finish:
New York
Boston
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore

New York just has too much talent and they are getting solid contributions from people that they really didn’t expect to. Russell Martin’s batting average has swooned lately but if he can maintain a slash line of .264/.368/.516, they will be in excellent shape. On top of that, it will make the transition away from Jorge Posada being an everyday player (.146/.248/.354) that much easier. Plus, they’ve gotten solid additions from Ivan Nova and Bartolo Colon from the rotation and Curtis Granderson is leading the team in home runs. In short, the sky is the limit for this team.

You just knew that sooner or later, Boston would rebound from their horrific 0-6 start and thus far they have, going 16-12 since. Adrian Gonzalez is doing what he normally does and when he starts hitting a few more home runs, his numbers will be right at (or better) where they were last year. Carl Crawford is hitting better but is still well away from where he wants to be. Their pitching has been decent, definitely good enough with the above average offense that everyone was expecting. When they start hitting this team will start stringing wins together and I think they’ll finish with 90-95 wins, right where everyone expected them to be.

As for the rest of the division, Tampa Bay has played very well since a terrible start and the Orioles have done just the opposite. I don’t see any of those teams having any staying power in this division with the Yankees and Red Sox so I look for them to try to play the role of spoiler in the wildcard chase. Oh, and also to see how many home runs Jose Bautista will hit…

AL CENTRAL

Current Standings:
Team (W-L, GB)
Cleveland (22-11, -)
Kansas City (18-16, 4.5)
Detroit (17-18, 6)
Minnesota (12-20, 9.5)
Chicago (13-22, 10)

Predicted Order of Finish:
Cleveland/Detroit
?
?
?
?

Before the season, I would have predicted that the Twins would win it in a tight three way race with Detroit and Chicago. A quick glance at the standings will show that they are a combined 18 games under .500 (42-60). So what has happened? As far as the Twins are concerned, Joe Mauer has not been hitting and Justin Morneau hasn’t looked the same since coming back from the concussion he sustained last July. Chicago is just in complete disarray and Detroit is just one game under .500 and 6 games behind a team off to a torrent start so they aren’t in that bad of a spot.

The real question is; are the Indians for real? It’s easy to forget that in 2007, they had the best record in baseball (96-66) and were one out from a trip to the World Series. That team featured Cy Young winner CC Sabathia but more importantly that team featured a healthy Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore. The last three years those two guys have been bouncing between the field and the DL. This year, they have both played significant time and Hafner is putting up the kind of line (.347/.406/.526) that reminds people of just how good he once was.

Cleveland will go as far as their pitching can take them. Right now they have a 3.24 team ERA and if that continues, they will win the division. If not, look for Detroit to wait out the other teams and steal the division with a less than stellar win total.

AL WEST

Current Standings:
Team (W-L, GB)
Los Angeles (20-15, -)
Oakland (18-17, 2)
Texas (18-17, 2)
Seattle (16-19, 4)

Predicted Order of Finish:
Texas
Oakland
Los Angeles
Seattle

This is one of the few divisions where they aren’t really any surprises. The Angels have been a good team under Mike Scioscia for years and seeing them in first place isn’t surprising. Texas has cooled off after a very hot start but they have players to win this division if they can stay healthy. Also look for Oakland’s young quartet of starters to lead this team to a strong second place finish.

The Mariners… well, they’re playing better than last year… that’s all I can really say right now. They are several years from contending again (and some of us just can’t wait for that).

NL EAST

Current Standings:
Team (W-L, GB)
Philadelphia (22-10, -)
Florida (20-13, 2.5)
Atlanta (19-16, 4.5)
Washington (16-18, 7)
New York (15-19, 8)

Predicted Order of Finish:
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Florida
Washington
New York

For the Phillies, the quartet of aces (and let’s be honest, really good former aces) has been just about as good as advertised. They have combined to go 14-6 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Most importantly, they have managed to start the season 22-10 without Chase Utley. If he comes back close to 100%, this team becomes scary good.

Atlanta also has started off very well, specifically with their pitching rotation (which sports the best rotation ERA in the NL). If they can find the offense, they will easily win the wildcard in the National League. As far as the other three teams go, it looks like the Nationals will be a showcase for really good players until they can get enough role players to make a serious run at the division. Once Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg get to the majors, this team will be fun to watch, even if they don’t win a ton of games just yet. Frankly, it’s a miracle that the Nats are even 16-18 given that as a team, their slash line is .227/.298/.348 and their leading qualifying hitter is hitting .227.

As far as the Mets go, they aren’t going to contend for the division title or the wildcard. The most interesting thing to watch with New York’s other team is if and when they start slashing payroll and dumping veterans who haven’t earned their contract in years and are making a ton of money.

NL CENTRAL

Current Standings:
Team (W-L, GB)
St. Louis (20-15, -)
Cincinnati (18-16, 1.5)
Pittsburgh (17-17, 2.5)
Chicago (15-18, 4)
Milwaukee (14-20, 5.5)
Houston (13-21, 6.5)

Predicted Order of Finish:

St. Louis/Cincinnati
St. Louis/Cincinnati
?
?
?
?

I firmly believe that this race will come down to the Reds and Cardinals yet again and this while I never would have imagined saying this a month ago, I think the Cardinals have the inside track. This is simply because even though Albert Pujols is nowhere near on track (.248/.322/.421), Matt Holiday (.398/.484/.611) and Lance Berkman (.374/.452/.738) are hitting like they want to rearrange the record books. Even though they will inevitably cool off, Pujols will inevitably heat up.

The most unfortunate story out of this division has to be the Milwaukee Brewers. They put pretty much everything into winning this year and so far it that plan has been completely derailed. There is still plenty of time to rebound but they are chasing two solid teams and they only have so much time for Zach Greinke to prove that trading for him wasn’t a monumental mistake. When you add this to the fact that with their long term commitment to Ryan Braun and the accompanying signals that they don’t believe they can resign Prince Fielder, it looks like this might be the beginning of a rebuilding phase.

NL WEST

Current Standings:
Team (W-L, GB)
Colorado (18-14, -)
San Francisco (18-16, 1)
Los Angeles (16-19, 3.5)
Arizona (15-18, 3.5)
San Diego (14-20, 5)

Projected Order of Finish:
Colorado
San Francisco
Los Angeles
Arizona
San Diego

This is the only division that I see the current standings holding up throughout the season. This is due to the fact that the standings in other divisions are influenced by teams getting off to hot or cold starts that nobody foresaw.

With regards to the defending World Series Champions, I question their ability to avoid a letdown. They have many great players and if Pablo Sandoval keeps his weight down, they will be a very good team. Will they be good enough to get to the low-mid 90’s in wins? I’m not sure if they are and I think that might be what they need to do to win either the division or the wildcard.

Colorado has played well and their bullpen has bitten them a bit recently but keep in mind that they got off to a great start and are now still over .500 and in first place despite:

- Carlos Gonzalez off to a bad start with the bat (.241/.305/.336 compared with .336/.376/.598 from a year ago)
- A team batting line that is nothing short of atrocious (.237/.322/.379)
- Ubaldo Jimenez is 0-2 with a 5.88 ERA and a WHIP of 1.46 (compared with 19-8, 2.88, and 1.15 from a year ago)

The Dodger have a good team and several quality players but the ownership situation they are in is awful and unlike the Rangers last year, their situation is being played out in a huge media market and they play in a much tougher division than the Rangers had to contend with a year ago.

PLAYOFFS

The National League will be represented by Philadelphia, St. Louis, Colorado, and Atlanta while the American League will be represented by New York, Detroit, Texas, and Boston.

NLDS
Philadelphia over St. Louis
Atlanta over Colorado

ALDS
Detroit over New York
Boston over Texas

LCS
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Boston over Detroit

World Series
Philadelphia over Boston

Cy Young
Roy Halladay, PHI
Jered Weaver, LAA

MVP
Matt Holiday, STL
Curtis Granderson, NYY