The Albert Pujols Saga

It's been a while since I've written in this space and the reason is quite simple. Between the Super Bowl and the beginning of the NCAA men's basketball tournament is one of the dullest times of the year when it comes to my sporting interests. I've had many ideas for posts rolling around my head but nothing seemed to stick... until this situation came about and then came to a head in the past week.



As any of you who have been paying attention already know, the deadline has passed. Unless the Albert Pujols camp changes their minds over the course of the next eight and a half months, he will become one of the most coveted free agents in the history of sports. Not just baseball, but all sports. It is very rare for a player of his talent and stature to become a free agent and for the most recent example in all sports; we only have to go back to the Decision. As far as baseball is concerned, Pujols will easily be the most coveted free agent since the winter of 2000 when Alex Rodriguez hit the free agent market with a career slash line of .309/.374/.561 and 189 home runs… at the age of 24.

So the questions on everybody’s mind are obvious.

First, what team will he sign with?

Second, how many zeroes will be on his new contract?

Lastly, will he be worth it to whoever makes history?

THE MONEY

In my opinion the second question is the easiest to answer. The most common numbers being kicked around are 10 years at an AAS (average annual salary) of $30 million, besting Alex Rodriguez’s record deal when he resigned with the Yankees a few winters ago. The thing that nobody knows outside of Pujols, his agent, and perhaps the Cardinals negotiating team, is how much higher Pujols wants to set the bar. Does he want $35 million per season? $40 million? Does he want a contract that will eventually make him a partial owner in a team, potentially worth much more than just the dollar value?

The one thing Pujols can’t do is overplay his hand. Granted, he’s going to have several suitors with extremely deep pockets but if he demands something truly ridiculous, I have a feeling that teams will tell him to take a hike. However, if the Yankees and Red Sox get into a true bidding war, it might be the final straw for the owners to start demanding that Major League Baseball take steps to help get player contracts back under control.

THE TEAM

This is where things get really tricky. He’s played 10 years for the St. Louis Cardinals and has become a hero to the city. In those years, he hasn’t said anything that could be construed as a complaint about the organization. Having said that, if he was willing to give the Cardinals any sort of home-town discount, I think he already would have signed an extension.

What other teams have a chance?

The Yankees and Red Sox certainly do because they both have the resources to offer Pujols anything he wants. Because of the money involved, I believe that those will be the three major players in these negotiations and if anyone else makes a play for Pujols, it’ll be someone unexpected.

So who has the best chance?

Right now my gut tells me that the Cardinals still have the inside track and after them, my money is on the Red Sox. They have a very modest sum of money invested in Adrian Gonzalez this year and then he becomes a free agent next winter. If they want to make a play for Albert Pujols, it would make perfect sense for them to either trade Gonzalez or simply let him play for a year and then let him leave in free agency. Either of those scenarios opens up first base and money for Pujols.

On the other hand, Mark Teixeira is two years into a 8 year, $180 million contract that includes a full no-trade clause. Pujols joining the Yankees would involve a position switch or trading Teixeira with the Yankees picking up a serious amount of the remaining $140 million left on his contract. Will they be willing to do that? If the Red Sox start gearing themselves for a serious run at Pujols and the Yankees fall short of the playoffs for the second time in three years, absolutely anything is possible.

In addition to the usual suspects, there are always teams like the Dodgers, Angels, Mets, and Cubs that could all throw more money at Pujols than anyone else offers. If nothing else, it’ll be entertaining.

THE VALUE

Before we delve too deep into the dollars and cents, I need to say a few words about the difference between Major League Baseball and the NBA and NFL. In those two leagues, players are paid largely based on their potential for the future and in baseball, they are paid for what they’ve done in the past with the high hopes that the players will replicate that success.

For instance, on July 30, 2010, Sam Bradford signed the richest contract for a rookie in NFL history. The contract is worth at least $50 million over 6 years with a maximum value of $86 million. All of this was before he had thrown a single pass in the NFL.

In his first three years with the St. Louis Cardinals, Albert Pujols had a slash line of .334/.412/.613, he hit 114 home runs and drove in 381 runs. He won a batting title and finished in the top four of MVP voting all three seasons. Lastly, Pujols was good for 23.6 WAR. In his first three seasons in a Cardinals’ uniform (2001-2003) 88 different players recorded at least 500 plate appearances in each of those three seasons. Only two bested Pujols’ mark of 23.6 WAR.

In those seasons, Barry Bonds earned $40.8 million.
Alex Rodriguez earned $66 million.
Albert Pujols earned $1.7 million.

So the point of that tangent is that in baseball, big contracts are handed out both for what a player has done as well as what a team hopes he will do.

THE NUMBERS

For the sake of argument, for this section we’re going to assume that Pujols signs for 10 years at $300 million. Will he be worth it? First of all, let’s talk about money that comes in from selling tickets. In 2009, teams drew an average of 2,447,686 people to their 81 home games and according to the Team Marketing Report, the average ticket price was $26.74. That means that in 2009 teams brought home an average of $65.5 million in ticket revenues.

If Albert Pujols were to sign and that was to increase ticket revenue by 10% (hardly an outrageous figure) that means that just with selling tickets, he’ll bring an extra $6.55 million to the average team. That doesn’t take into account the sales of concessions or the sales of merchandise which will spike as well.

There’s one flaw in that logic though; we’re not talking about the average franchise when we talk about the potential suitors for Pujols’ services. Now let’s examine the impact that he could have on the Yankees and Red Sox. Instead of average attendances of 2,447,686 and average prices of $26.74, the Red Sox had values of 3,062,699 and $50.24 while the Yankees had values of 3,719,358 and $72.97. instead of modest ticket revenues of $65.5 million, the Red Sox took in $153.8 million while the Yankees took in a ridiculous $271.4 million. Now imagine Pujols adding a potential 10% to those figures…

As far as the Red Sox and Yankees are concerned, the only real problems I see are a lack of flexibility with regards to their rosters and payroll and that the Yankees already have a high priced first baseman under contract for six more years.

Lastly, there is a very justified worry about giving a 31 year old player a 10 year contract worth this much money, especially given the long line of albatross type contracts that have hung around the necks of Major League franchises in the past… but have they?

There have been a grand total of 27 seasons in which a player earned more than $20 million. On average, they have produced 4.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement player), a very good mark, but not quite worth that much money. However, there is one interesting trend amongst those players. As a rule, they kept very similar value to what they had before earning such large paydays.

Those 27 seasons were recorded by 9 different players and 6 of them put forth increased production (according to their WAR value) compared to when they were making less than $20 million per season. One of those can very easily be thrown out because in his only season earning more than $20 million, Barry Bonds was injured and limited to only 52 plate appearance. Therefore, 75% of the players in this sample (which Pujols is about to join) increased their Wins Above Replacement after signing their huge paydays.

Considering that Pujols has averaged 8.38 WAR per season in the majors, the thought of him increasing that average is just downright scary.



PREDICTION

He’ll get his 10 year contract; I have no doubts. For money, my guess is $250-300 million in guaranteed money with incentives and potential ownership options worth anywhere from $25 million to $100 million more. I know, way to narrow it down, right?

The tricky question is where he’ll end up. Based on what happened this past offseason, I’m not sure that the Cardinals are looking to give him a record breaking contract and if that’s the case, he won’t be playing in St. Louis next year. If he leaves St. Louis, my best guess is that the Cubs will come up with the money to sign him but only after seriously outbidding the Yankees and Red Sox…


Either that or he takes a serious paycut to join the Mariners…



I can dream, can’t I?