PRESEASON PREDICTIONS REVISITED

Well, the calendar says that we’re halfway through August and most teams have about 45 games left in their 2010 regular season so I thought it was about time that I revisited my preseason predictions to find out just how right (wrong) I was.

Without further ado, let’s just get the worst one out of the way right off the bat. It’s the most painful one so we’ll just rip it off quickly like a Band-Aid.

THE SEATTLE MARINERS WILL WIN THE AL WEST

Their record of 46-71 would be the worst in the American League if it wasn’t for the lowly Baltimore Orioles and the margin between those two teams is a lot closer now than it was a few weeks ago. As a team, their hitting has been absolutely atrocious, putting forth a batting line of .237/.302/.340 for an OPS of .642 and an OPS+ of 77, meaning they have been 23% worse than league average so far this season.

Overall their pitching has not been terrible with an ERA of 3.94 and a WHIP of 1.294, both of which are slightly better than league average. Unfortunately, their pitching staff hasn’t been able to make up for an offense that has hit just 70 home runs, tied with Oakland for the lowest total in the league.

In a nutshell, the Mariners were not as good as their 85-77 record a year ago and they aren’t as bad as their 46-71 record last year. In 2009, everything went right and even if they would lose a game 15-1, they would win the next three games 2-1. Their record in on-run games was astonishing and their clubhouse chemistry was the best in the league. This year, everything that went right last year went wrong. Instead of poor hitting performances getting teamed up with excellent pitching performances, they were teamed up with ok pitching performances, getting losses where last year they got wins.

I firmly believe that the 2009-2010 Mariners are not as good as last year or as bad as this year, but actually are a good average of the two. Their total record the past two years is 131-148 or good enough for about 77 or 78 wins in both seasons. A decent team but not nearly good enough to compete for the AL West title, much less the American League championship.

CLIFF LEE AND FELIX HERNANDEZ WILL BOTH COMPETE FOR THE AL CY YOUNG AWARD

Cliff Lee ended up missing the first month of the season but in a different year, this prediction would be right on the money. Lee is 10-5 with a 2.57 ERA and he leads the AL with 7 complete games. His WHIP is 0.930 (good for the best in the league) and he has struck out 137 batters while walking an absurd 9. If he maintains his pace, he will break the record for the highest strikeout/walk ratio for a single season set by Bret Saberhagen.

Felix Hernandez is just 8-9 this season but his ERA is still very good at 2.71 and his WHIP is also good at 1.12. He has thrown a league high 182.1 innings this year and it appears that the Mariners will reap enormous dividends on the contract that they signed Hernandez to recently.

On a winning team, Lee’s record could very well be 12-3 or 13-2 while Hernandez could have had 12-14 wins by this point in the season. I understand that wins don’t mean everything and if last year’s votes are any indication, the Cy Young voters might be getting smart enough to look past the win-loss record.

When all is said and done I believe that both Hernandez and Lee will be in the discussion and will receive votes for the Cy Young Award but neither will win it. CC Sabathia is having a very good season for a team that is almost sure to win 100 games (15-5, 3.14) and David Price is having an excellent season for another team that has a very good chance to win 100 games (15-5, 2.84).

According to Bill James formula which has predicted the Cy Young winner correctly about 80% of the time over history of the award, neither Lee nor Hernandez rank in the top 10 currently but there’s still a ways to go and the pennant races aren’t over yet.

THE YANKEES WILL WIN THE AL EAST

They are 72-44, leading the AL East by 2 games over the Rays and 6 games ahead of the Red Sox who are currently second in the Wild Card standings. Their OPS is .788, good for second in the league but once that is adjusted for the pitching favorable nature of the new Yankee Stadium, they go up to first in OPS+ at 115 (the Red Sox have a team OPS of .804 but an OPS+ of just 111). The Yankees also lead the league in runs scored and on-base percentage, hallmarks of their teams in the late 90’s.

Their pitching has struggled slightly with an ERA+ of 104 (actual ERA of 3.86) but considering that Sabathia is a Cy Young candidate, Phil Hughes has emerged as a legitimate middle of the rotation starter, Andy Pettitte has pitched well this year, and Mariano Rivera is having one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career, they still might have enough pitching to repeat as World Series champions. The one thing that I left out there is AJ Burnett because as he has shown time and time again, he could go out and throw a shutout or not make it out of the third inning.

They have played well all year and show no signs of slowing down so this is probably the safest prediction I made before the season started.

TIM LINCECUM WILL NOT WIN A THIRD STRAIGHT CY YOUNG AWARD

This one seems prophetic now but when you think about just how hard it is to win three straight Cy Young Awards, it seems pretty obvious. Lincecum has pitched well for the Giants (11-6, 3.41) but considering the amazing performances by pitchers in the National League, that isn’t close to being in the top 10 of Bill James Cy Young Predictor Formula. Josh Johnson has struggled lately but has still had a great season (10-5, 2.27). Ubaldo Jimenez has forgone his Bob Gibson impersonation but still is tied for the league lead with 17 wins (17-3, 2.55). The Phillies have trouble scoring runs for Roy Halladay so he has compensated by throwing a perfect game and several other gems (15-8, 2.24) but none of those pitcher are all that close to what Adam Wainwright is doing right now for the Cardinals.

He is 17-6 with a 1.99 ERA (the only starter under 2.00 in the league right now) and a WHIP of 0.97. At the trading deadline he was 14-6 and his ERA stood at 2.23. Since the calendar turned, he has won all three of his starts and has allowed just one earned run in 23 innings pitched. If he continues to pitch this way through the end of the season and the Cardinals hold their lead in the NL Central, he will win the Cy Young Award and could also get some votes in the MVP race.

All in all, I would say that this is just the sophomore slump for Lincecum and it came a year late. As long as he stays healthy he will win another Cy Young at some point in his career but this is not his year.

ALBERT PUJOLS WILL WIN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP AWARD

If it wasn’t for Joey Votto’s incredible season, this would be another no brainer of a prediction. He is hitting just .315 but he has hit 29 home runs and has driven in 85 runs. Even though those numbers don’t stack up to some of the better years of his career, they currently rank 5th, 2nd, and 1st in the National League. Joey Votto’s numbers have slid off slightly since the All-Star break but his numbers of .322, 28, and 79 rank 1st, 3rd, and 3rd in the NL. Their OPS values are nearly identical (1.015 for Votto and .989 for Pujols) and they both have created 4.5 Wins Above Replacement.

Considering that Adam Wainwright and Roy Halladay has created 5.9 WAR, this could be a year where a position player does not win the MVP award. As has happened several times, this year’s MVP race may very well come down to who plays better in September and who leads their team to the playoffs. This may not be a slam dunk for Pujols, but I still say that he has as good a chance as anyone else in the NL.

JOE MAUER WILL WIN THE AL MVP AWARD

Yeah, this one was a bit off. He is still a great player and if he maintains his current skill set for another 10-15 years, he’ll be a first ballot Hall of Famer. He is hitting .328 this year, a number that was good enough to lead the AL in 2008 but with Josh Hamilton going nuts this year, it isn’t close to leading the league. His home runs are down (28 in 2009 and just 7 this year in 390 at-bats) which has caused his slugging percentage to dip from .587 to .485 but his OPS is still .885 and he is still one of the most important players on one of the best teams in the American League.

The biggest obstacle to Mauer competing for this award, as I mentioned above, is Josh Hamilton. Hamilton’s season got off to a bit of a slow start with slash lines of .265/.351/.494 in April and .294/.322/.505 in May. Since then he has been otherworldly. In June his slash line was .455/.482/.815; in July it was .418/.468/.704 and thus far in August it has been .381/.447/.667.

For the season, his .364 batting average is 26 points ahead of Miguel Cabrera for the best mark in the league, his 26 home runs are good for 4th in the AL, and his 80 RBI are very good but outside the top five in the league. If he is somehow able to maintain the torrent pace that he has had since the beginning of June, he will win the AL MVP award in a walk despite any baserunning or fielding liabilities he may present.

Well, that is all for the regular season predictions that I made. Some were good, some were bad, some (one in particular) were ugly. Before the playoffs start, I’ll be writing a more in depth preview piece at which point I’ll be revisiting the playoff predictions I made before the season. For the record, I said that the Yankees would top the Mariners in the ALCS, the Phillies would win the NLCS, and the Yankees would beat the Phillies again in the World Series.

Overall that doesn’t look too bad but we’ll wait for the season to end first. Truth be told, it looks like this might turn into a last hoorah for the Rays young ballclub before it gets too expensive for the Rays management to keep this team together. Hopefully that won’t be the case but it would be fun to see the Rays play with that sense of urgency, knowing that their time as a team might be limited.

As always, until next time, enjoy the baseball.