BCS Busters: Do They Deserve a Shot?

Does Boise State and Utah deserve a seat at the table with the big boys?

Thankfully, the always muddled BCS conversation became a bit clearer with several weeks left in the regular season. Coming into this weekend, these were the teams in the conversation:

#1 Florida (8-0)
#2 Texas (8-0)
#3 Alabama (8-0)
#4 Iowa (9-0)
#5 Cincinnati (8-0)
#6 TCU (8-0)
#7 Boise State (8-0)
#8 Oregon (7-1)
#9 LSU (7-1)

Now that I write out that list, I had forgotten until now how many teams really are in the discussion, whether they deserve to be or not. However, the picture has cleared up a little bit.

#3 Alabama effectively ended LSU’s underdog bid for a third BCS Championship with their 24-15 victory on Saturday. If LSU had run the table, beating Alabama and then #1 Florida in the SEC title game, they would have made a compelling case for one of the top two spots, especially with their only loss coming to then #1 Florida. However, with current record of 7-2 and no berth in the SEC title game, none of that will happen. Still a 10-2 record (assuming they win out) with the only losses coming to #1 Florida and #3 Alabama is a strong resume.

#4 Iowa took a 10-0 lead against Northwestern and then allowed two touchdowns in the second quarter. Northwestern added a field goal in the fourth quarter to take home a 17-10 win. So, officially, unless the next three weeks prove to be crazier than any stretch run in recent history, a Big Ten team will not play for the national title. This loss by Iowa actually puts Ohio State on the inside track for the rose Bowl while the Hawkeyes probably won’t get an at-large bid in that scenario because of the teams at the top of the standings.

#5 Cincinnati and #7 Boise State were underwhelming against inferior opponents on Saturday and I believe that this is going to hurt them tonight when the next BCS standings are revealed. The Bearcats beat Connecticut 47-45 in a game in which they had larger leads but couldn’t put the Huskies away. This victory added to the general opinion that the Big East is a much weaker conference than the other BCS heavyweights could seriously hurt Cincy’s chances at a national title. Along the same lines, but without the automatic BCS berth (more on that later) are the Broncos of Boise State. They did play on the road but it was 3-5 Louisiana Tech and the margin of victory (45-35) wasn’t what you would expect from a #7 team in a conference like the WAC. Luckily for them, the two teams immediately below them, both potential 1-loss suitors for the BCS title game, both lost for the second time. The downside is that one of them was Oregon, the sole victory on Boise State’s schedule they can really hang their hat on. With Oregon out of the top ten and TCU still playing very well, Boise State may not have enough to garner an at-large bid.

This is how I think the BCS standings will shake out tonight:

#1 Florida (9-0)
#2 Alabama (9-0)
#3 Texas (9-0)
#4 TCU (9-0)
#5 Cincinnati (9-0)
#6 Boise State (9-0)
#7 Georgia Tech (9-1)
#8 Iowa (9-1)
#9 USC (7-2) or Oregon (7-2)

Unfortunately, six unbeaten teams will three or four games remaining doesn’t do very much to clear up the BCS situation and the playoff-shaped elephant in the room would get even bigger and louder if this is how the season ended. This is where we step from the world of fact and stray into the world of prediction…

First and foremost, either Florida or Alabama will most likely play for the national title. They both had to play good schedules in the SEC and will play each other in the SEC Championship game, giving one of them a huge quality win over a top opponent. Even a 12-1 SEC champion looks pretty good on paper.

Texas simply has to avoid losing. If they finish 13-0, they will play for the national title, it’s as simple as that and with their remaining schedule, even with the Big XII title game, their last tough game is now a week in the rearview mirror (Oklahoma State).

For the rest, things get really muddled. Realistically, TCU can finish undefeated and if this were a different year, I might say that they deserve a shot at the national title. I hate nitpicking when it comes to a team’s schedule but if we end up with 6 undefeated teams, we’ll have to. Wins at Virginia and Clemson look good. They went to BYU’s place and simply dismantled them and if they are able to do something similar to Utah next week, they will have a solid resume. Just not good enough.

BCS Busters

Ok, the subject can’t be avoided any longer. Why will TCU and Boise State be shut out of the biggest games this January? Indeed, it is possible and probable, that one of these teams will finish undefeated and finish outside the BCS. Is it fair? As much as I hate to say it, when all parties are taken into account, yes, it is.

I know it will take a lot of assumptions, but as of right now, these are the teams that will win the BCS conferences.

ACC – Georgia Tech
Big East – Cincinnati
Big Ten – Ohio State
Big XII – Texas
SEC – Florida
Pac-10 – Oregon

First of all, Alabama will be chosen as an at-large team. If Alabama wins the SEC, this first at-large spot will go to Florida. That leaves three spots open. TCU, under BCS rules, gets one of them. Based on their schedules, USC and LSU would be prime candidates for two of those three spots. And, shockingly, Boise State might just get in with that last at-large position, just don’t be shocked if they don’t.

So why is it that a team that has gone 55-9 in the past five years (better than Florida, LSU, and Oklahoma) has to go above and beyond simply to get people to pay attention to their blue turf? Quite simply, it’s because of the Western Athletic Conference as well as the history of small schools playing in the BCS bowls. Immediately, someone should point out that non-BCS schools have gone 3-1 in the BCS but that number is misleading. I say that record should be 1-1 and here’s why. The WAC and the Mountain West Conference want a piece of the BCS pie and they want to play with the big boys and eventually play for national titles. I have only ever seen one team that I think could compete on that level, the Utes of Utah last year.

In 2004, Utah became the first non-BCS school to get a BCS berth and they beat up an inferior Pittsburgh team 35-7. This is not evidence that they deserve to play for the biggest prize on the biggest stage. USC and Oklahoma were #1 and #2, respectively, from wire to wire for good reason. With apologies to Auburn fans, they were the two best teams all year and Utah would have been blown out against either one of them.

Example number two occurred two years later when Boise State beat Oklahoma 43-42 in one of the best Bowl games ever. However, this is still not the marquee win that the little guys needed. That Oklahoma team can in with a record of 11-2 and was ranked 10th in the country while Boise State came in ranked 8th. You can read all sorts of things into that alone but what it really comes down to is Boise State was the higher ranked team and needed two miracle plays to win this game. On top of that, they picked the one year, other than 2009, in the past ten where Oklahoma wasn’t a great team, just a good team.

The very next year, we got to see it again, this time with #10 Hawai’i playing #5 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. This was the first true test of an undefeated team from a smaller conference playing against a powerful BCS opponent. There are many that would say, in the hectic finish to the 2007 season, that Georgia should have played for the national title. To put it simply, the Bulldogs embarrassed Hawai’i. The final score was 41-10 and Heisman finalist Colt Brennan looked awful against the Bulldogs defense. It would be easy to point out the fact that Hawai'i had to fly over 4,200 miles while Georgia had to go roughly 500. To anyone who would bring up the flight time or the venue, I’d like to simply say this. If you think of yourself as a top ten team and you have a month to prepare for a game, you have absolutely no excuse for not being ready.

Which finally brings us to last year, when #6 Utah was picked to play #4 Alabama, fresh off an SEC title game loss to Florida, who would win the national title. Alabama was a good team all year and many people, including myself, said this would not be an even game and the Tide would roll. Utah scored the first three touchdowns of the game and didn’t look back in their 31-17 win. In my opinion, this was the first time that a non-BCS team went up against a top tier BCS team and looked like it belonged.

So, that’s a win over an overmatched team, a miracle win, a blowout loss, and finally, a solid win. This is hardly the resume upon which to build your case that you deserve better representation in the BCS. But enough of the past, let’s focus for a moment on the present. If Boise State doesn’t make it into the BCS, they have only themselves to blame. They scheduled one team from a BCS conference. TCU could have gotten away with that because the Mountain West is widely viewed as stronger than the WAC (3 ranked teams against 1 for the WAC) and still they didn’t. TCU scheduled both Virginia and Clemson and while they haven’t been as good as Oregon (Boise State’s marquee game) both were on the road, whereas Oregon came to Boise.

In the last five years, Boise State has played 9 games against a top 25 opponent, 4 of which were against a top 10 team. Their record? 4-5 and 1-3 respectively. When you compare this with the cream of the Division I (FBS) crop, it doesn’t stack up at all. The four teams that have won a national title in the past five years (USC, Texas, LSU, and Florida) have played an average of 22 times against top 25 opponents and 10 times against top 10 opponents. What it adds up to is this. The past five national champions have played 33% of their games against ranked opponents and 14.7% against top ten teams. Those numbers for Boise State are 14.1% and 6.3%, respectively.

This is partially a product of the WAC and partially of Boise State’s scheduling. If you want to be treated as one of the big boys, you have to schedule better opponents. The perfect example in the earlier part of this decade was Fresno State. They wanted respect so badly that they would play anyone on any field on any day. This strategy finally culminated in 2005, when Fresno State was 8-1 and played on the road at #2 USC. In a shootout, USC finally prevailed 50-42 and the loss ultimately caused Fresno State to go from one of the most prominent mid-major football programs back to the rest of the pack chasing the BCS. The point is they were willing to go on the road to a place where the team was the two-time defending national champions. Quite simply, that is how you get respect on the national stage.

In the past five years, while Boise State has played Oregon State three times, Georgia once, BYU once, and Oregon once, they had also played Sacramento State, Portland State, Weber State, and Wyoming twice.

I’m not trying to jump all over mid-majors and say they’re not ready to play for the big prizes. All I’m saying is that if they really want the respect they’re clamoring for, they need to earn it. The way you earn it is by playing a tough schedule, tougher than you have to, and risking a loss or two. It would have been easy for Ohio State and Texas to schedule someone else in 2005 and 2006 or Ohio State and USC to schedule some hapless bottom dweller of the FBS in 2008 and 2009. Those programs know that you are considered one of the best by beating another member of the club. That’s how Boise State and Utah and TCU have to get into the club. Not by knocking down the door with media lobbying or congressional hearings or anti-trust lawsuits. You get in by beating the current members, not in the postseason, but in the regular season.

Until then, stop pretending the BCS is a bully that stole your lunch money because at the end of the day, all your conferences signed up to play along with the BCS back in 1998.